Moncole's Value.

Moncole's Value.

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Posted by: yarINvincible.1243

yarINvincible.1243

Hello guys!
Recently I’ve received a certain item called Monocle. It’s an exotic item which I got out of Aetherblade’s Dungeon. I remember a week ago it’s value wasn’t that high.. something around 4 gold, but now it’s 42 gold. I’m not sure either to sell it or keep waiting for a better price. What do you guys suggest? I understand nothing about the economics.. I mean like, I don’t know when the gold’s value is going up or down, please help! Thanks alot!

kill em all //

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

This should probably be posted in the Black Lion Trading forum, but basically, sell whenever you are happy with whatever price it is now. You can never know for certain whether an item will continue to increase in price, or whether future changes to the game will crash the item prices. 42 gold is a VERY good price for a cosmetic item, and were I you, I’d definitely consider selling. Maybe I’d wait a few more days till just before the event ends (because that’s when an item’s price tends to be highest, before everybody then tries to collect profits after the event ends), but I’d definitely take my profits sooner rather than later.

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

Except items like this won’t come back… at all. So you can hold it for as long as you want and the price will go up up up up up… it’s just a matter of how badly you want to liquidate it.

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Posted by: yarINvincible.1243

yarINvincible.1243

This should probably be posted in the Black Lion Trading forum, but basically, sell whenever you are happy with whatever price it is now. You can never know for certain whether an item will continue to increase in price, or whether future changes to the game will crash the item prices. 42 gold is a VERY good price for a cosmetic item, and were I you, I’d definitely consider selling. Maybe I’d wait a few more days till just before the event ends (because that’s when an item’s price tends to be highest, before everybody then tries to collect profits after the event ends), but I’d definitely take my profits sooner rather than later.

Oh my bad though, but thanks. I appreciate your honest answer, I think I should just sell it and get over it. I don’t want to gamble you know, it’s money-time So, I think I might sell it. Thanks again.

Except items like this won’t come back… at all. So you can hold it for as long as you want and the price will go up up up up up… it’s just a matter of how badly you want to liquidate it.

I’m not sure if you’re being serious with me or not, but, I’ll answer seriously. As the first person to reply said, you can never know when the value drops, so I guess you’re just trolling or something… but thanks for answering though.

kill em all //

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Posted by: Pixelpumpkin.4608

Pixelpumpkin.4608

Except items like this won’t come back… at all. So you can hold it for as long as you want and the price will go up up up up up… it’s just a matter of how badly you want to liquidate it.

Except that it is still available now. I can think of several limited time items whose value dropped significantly before the end of their run, and even after, that I probably should have sold while there still was a profit to be made. (Some SAB skins, molten tonic recipe, mini southsun wind rider…)

Yes, on the long run the price will (likely) go up, but before that, it may drop well below at what it is now, so it could be a very long wait.

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Posted by: yarINvincible.1243

yarINvincible.1243

I’ve noticed people sell it for 49 gold, the lowest buyer is 42 gold. What should I do then? Sell it for the highest price, sell it for about 45-48 gold, or match it to the lowest buyer(42 gold)?

kill em all //

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

Except items like this won’t come back… at all. So you can hold it for as long as you want and the price will go up up up up up… it’s just a matter of how badly you want to liquidate it.

Except that it is still available now. I can think of several limited time items whose value dropped significantly before the end of their run, and even after, that I probably should have sold while there still was a profit to be made. (Some SAB skins, molten tonic recipe, mini southsun wind rider…)

Yes, on the long run the price will (likely) go up, but before that, it may drop well below at what it is now, so it could be a very long wait.

Actually, it’s very unlikely that the price will drop (and stay dropped).

Let’s take a loot at a fancy term called scarcity

This item is a great example of scarcity, because even if the skin isn’t “that good” as some people might say, it has one of the lowest drop rates (see: Molten Alliance Jetpacks).

Why? The droprate is pitifully low in a dungeon that caters to competent players. Keep in mind that with every game, the majority of players are not competent.

So, what do we end up with? An item that rarely drops in a dungeon that is not run super often.

Slap on the fact that the dungeon is only available for 2 weeks (as opposed to SAB which was a full month and was grind-able, especially for skins on an ~15m for 3 chest basis).

I’ll let you figure out where the price will end up, though, because, hey, I’m just a troll.

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Posted by: yarINvincible.1243

yarINvincible.1243

I just now realize that you’re right Esplen, I beg your pardon. I wasn’t informed that the dungeon will be open only for two weeks. And you know what? It makes sense. First, the item is rare, which means it won’t drop very often. Furthermore, it’s source is limited which means that the number of Moncoles that will be available comparing to the number of people who want it wouldn’t even match, which means, it’s value will rise significantly.
Thanks for that information Esplen, much appreciated!

kill em all //

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

Esplen is right, in a manner of speaking. As a general rule, limited time items will only ever rise in price. However, it’s subject to three criteria:

1. The item truly never comes back. This is dependent solely on ANet, who might very well choose to re-release the Aetherblade dungeon down the line, perhaps as part of a Fractal, and the Monocle might become available again as a rare drop there. (There’s also the possibility that a Monocle skin might become available on the gem store, and it looks similar to, or even better than, the current one.) If that happens, prices on the item will plummet and you’ll end up losing most of your investment.

As an example, when the Lost Shores originally came out, some people stocked up on the Tiki skins because they thought they were one-time items. Then, during Secret of Southsun, ANet released the skins again, and the people who hoarded the skins when they first came out basically lost their investment.

I’m not saying the Monocle will DEFINITELY come back, but it’s always a possibility you need to keep in mind when investing or holding on to something to sell.

2. Is there true demand for the item? Back when the Super Adventure Box came out, prices for the Super weapon skins climbed up and up, only to collapse after the SAB went away, and it’s never really recovered since then. The reason behind this was because most people who wanted the Super skins had already farmed them using Baubles; the price of the skins was therefore fueled solely by speculators thinking the price would keep on rising. When SAB went away and it turned out that demand just wasn’t that high after all, the market crashed and now prices for Super skins are about the same as when they were cheapest.

3. The market doesn’t move on. MMO players as a general rule go crazy over new stuff, but when the next new content is released, they largely forget about the previous content. That’s why you often see players wearing/using whatever is the current “flavour of the month”; there’s a lot of people now wearing holographic wings, but I’m willing to bet that 2 or 3 months down the line, you’ll hardly see anybody wearing them.

This often means that demand for exclusive items drops sharply after only a few weeks to a couple of months. At that stage, only die-hard collectors or fashionistas are willing to pay super-high prices for your items, so you might be waiting a long time to get your money, especially if there are tons of other investors (and there will be) trying to sell their own Monocles.

And in that time, maybe YOU are now bored of GW2, or are all excited about another game, and move on, meaning that you will never get to sell your item and thus missed out on enjoying whatever that 42 – 49 gold would have brought you had you sold it while you were still into GW2.


So, for all those reasons, this is why my advice is still to sell an item when it reaches a price where you would be happy with the profit. You could make big money by holding onto the Monocle and selling it further on down the line, but that also exposes you to risk, and it could go either way.

Ultimately, it’s your decision; both selling or holding are perfectly valid choices to make here, depending on what your preferences are.

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Posted by: bri.2359

bri.2359

@OP

You seem to be a relatively new or recent player.
That 42g will go a long way to kit out your level 80 character(s). It will take the pressure off having to save/farm gold while leveling.

If you have have been playing since launch with 400-500g saved, then 42g will not make that much difference. In this case, hanging on to the item for long-term price rise speculation could be a big boon, or not. However, in this case there is little or no risk to you.

Lvl 80’s: Ranger; Guardian; Mesmer; Necromancer; Thief
Gandara Megaserver

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Posted by: Pixelpumpkin.4608

Pixelpumpkin.4608

Except items like this won’t come back… at all. So you can hold it for as long as you want and the price will go up up up up up… it’s just a matter of how badly you want to liquidate it.

Except that it is still available now. I can think of several limited time items whose value dropped significantly before the end of their run, and even after, that I probably should have sold while there still was a profit to be made. (Some SAB skins, molten tonic recipe, mini southsun wind rider…)

Yes, on the long run the price will (likely) go up, but before that, it may drop well below at what it is now, so it could be a very long wait.

Actually, it’s very unlikely that the price will drop (and stay dropped).

Let’s take a loot at a fancy term called scarcity

This item is a great example of scarcity, because even if the skin isn’t “that good” as some people might say, it has one of the lowest drop rates (see: Molten Alliance Jetpacks).

Why? The droprate is pitifully low in a dungeon that caters to competent players. Keep in mind that with every game, the majority of players are not competent.

So, what do we end up with? An item that rarely drops in a dungeon that is not run super often.

Slap on the fact that the dungeon is only available for 2 weeks (as opposed to SAB which was a full month and was grind-able, especially for skins on an ~15m for 3 chest basis).

I’ll let you figure out where the price will end up, though, because, hey, I’m just a troll.

Thanks for the education.

Here’s the super scepter @ gwspidy: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/41952
It reached its peak price several days before the end of the SAB, and then dropped, and the price continued to drop. It is now worth half than what it was when it was still available.

Mini reef rider: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/43248
hasn’t been available since the Secret of Southsun, and is still dropping in price.

Infinite molten berserker tonic recipe: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/42404
See for yourself where that one’s going.

But maybe the items that I’ve got sitting in my own inventory aren’t representative. So let’s try the community’s most popular of limited edition items:

Super greatsword skin: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/41946

Jetpack: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/42406
Bonus trivia: While the SAB was up for a month, the Molten Facility was around for all of 11 days.

So sure, keep generalising it if you want, but actual data says you’re wrong.

My original point stands:

Yes, on the long run the price will (likely) go up, but before that, it may drop well below at what it is now, so it could be a very long wait.

If anything, it looks like limited item prices peak just before they become unavailable. It’s always a gamble, but if I had a monocle to sell, I’d probably sell it this Sunday.

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

It’s actually more in-depth of just a “Oh these are all limited items” there’s also the factor of how many of those items are in the game (and/or in the market).

There are a LOT less Monocles in the market than any of the above-stated items, including Jet Packs. You can argue that there are a lot of them being held in peoples inventories, but that’s your judgment call to make, not mine.

I just stated what I believe will happen to them and offered my reasoning. You can use items that have a higher supply for your point, and I’m okay with that. But just keep in mind that that’s YOUR opinion, not mine.

I respect your opinion, now please respect mine.

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Posted by: Rouven.7409

Rouven.7409

Esplen – just a quick question, how do you factor in the low demand, according to spidy.

Let’s just say the jetpack – supply 67, demand over 300
Monocles combined – supply 47 – demand 72

I don’t mind either way, I know I certainly won’t buy either at those prices, but shouldn’t the demand be higher for the monocles or are they just being filled since they currently still drop?

“Whose Kitten is this?” – “It’s a Charr baby.”
“Whose Charr is this?”- “Ted’s.”
“Who’s Ted?”- “Ted’s dead, baby. Ted’s dead.”

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

Esplen – just a quick question, how do you factor in the low demand, according to spidy.

Let’s just say the jetpack – supply 67, demand over 300
Monocles combined – supply 47 – demand 72

I don’t mind either way, I know I certainly won’t buy either at those prices, but shouldn’t the demand be higher for the monocles or are they just being filled since they currently still drop?

Drop rate and also the amount of people running the dungeon. Molten Alliance Dungeon had a LOT MORE people running it on a daily basis (and finishing it) as opposed to Aetherblade Retreat. I don’t have exact numbers on this, but you can tell based on the complaints that most people are giving to get an idea of the people NOT doing the dungeon (out of the small forum community).

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Posted by: Rouven.7409

Rouven.7409

Esplen – just a quick question, how do you factor in the low demand, according to spidy.

Let’s just say the jetpack – supply 67, demand over 300
Monocles combined – supply 47 – demand 72

I don’t mind either way, I know I certainly won’t buy either at those prices, but shouldn’t the demand be higher for the monocles or are they just being filled since they currently still drop?

Drop rate and also the amount of people running the dungeon. Molten Alliance Dungeon had a LOT MORE people running it on a daily basis (and finishing it) as opposed to Aetherblade Retreat. I don’t have exact numbers on this, but you can tell based on the complaints that most people are giving to get an idea of the people NOT doing the dungeon (out of the small forum community).

Ok, but that should mean that the demand for the monocles should be higher, no?

“Whose Kitten is this?” – “It’s a Charr baby.”
“Whose Charr is this?”- “Ted’s.”
“Who’s Ted?”- “Ted’s dead, baby. Ted’s dead.”

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Posted by: yarINvincible.1243

yarINvincible.1243

I’ve read all of your comments guys, I totally appreciate your honesty and I really thank you for that! Now, I’m not sure what I’m supposed to do, that’s the very first time I found a “limited edition” item. I’m kind of confused and I really really want to make this deal worthwhile. I’m afraid after one month the prices will not rise as I expect and eventually I will have nothing to do with the item… now, I’ve asked a few people in-game and I told me that there’s a 100% chance that in one month~3 months the prices will rise higher in 300%-400%.
So, what should I do? can I just ask ANet if they might get the dungeon back or release special skins on the gem store?
Thanks again.

kill em all //

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

I’ve asked a few people in-game and I told me that there’s a 100% chance that in one month~3 months the prices will rise higher in 300%-400%.
So, what should I do? can I just ask ANet if they might get the dungeon back or release special skins on the gem store?
Thanks again.

You’re not going to get an answer from ANet. It’s your choice who you trust and what you believe in the end.

Esplen – just a quick question, how do you factor in the low demand, according to spidy.

Let’s just say the jetpack – supply 67, demand over 300
Monocles combined – supply 47 – demand 72

I don’t mind either way, I know I certainly won’t buy either at those prices, but shouldn’t the demand be higher for the monocles or are they just being filled since they currently still drop?

Drop rate and also the amount of people running the dungeon. Molten Alliance Dungeon had a LOT MORE people running it on a daily basis (and finishing it) as opposed to Aetherblade Retreat. I don’t have exact numbers on this, but you can tell based on the complaints that most people are giving to get an idea of the people NOT doing the dungeon (out of the small forum community).

Ok, but that should mean that the demand for the monocles should be higher, no?

Demand is arbitrary. If people like it, the demand goes up. If people don’t like it, the demand doesn’t go as high (but people will collect it for the sake of having something rare and precious as opposed to having something for their looks. See: Most peoples views on Legendaries)

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Posted by: Pixelpumpkin.4608

Pixelpumpkin.4608

So, what should I do? can I just ask ANet if they might get the dungeon back or release special skins on the gem store?

I think it’s safe to say that IF the dungeon comes back (as a fractal or otherwise), the reward item doesn’t. And they won’t put the monocle in the gem store either. (At least there’s no precedence for either.)

My advice is: Sell it soon.

Reasoning:
1) There’s no guarantee that the price will go up at all. (If you look at the data of the jetpack and the super greatsword skin, the two most popular limited edition drops so far, that’s just not what happened so far. Those items were obtainable in April and beginning of May. I do not see the prices suddenly jumping up at the 3 or 4 month mark. Why would they? It will be a steady but slow increase. They might never reach the peak for shortly before the end of the event, when people realized that it isn’t going to drop for them and panicked.)
2) If you hold on to your item for now, be aware that if (when) the price goes up, it will be a long wait.
3) You pointed out that you’re a new player. 40 gold, right now, is an absolute fortune to you. 40 gold, early in your guild wars life, is a lot more valuable than 80 gold will be in 6 to 12 months. (and this is assuming a “best case” scenario for the price development!)

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Posted by: Pixelpumpkin.4608

Pixelpumpkin.4608

I’ve read all of your comments guys, I totally appreciate your honesty and I really thank you for that! Now, I’m not sure what I’m supposed to do, that’s the very first time I found a “limited edition” item. I’m kind of confused and I really really want to make this deal worthwhile. I’m afraid after one month the prices will not rise as I expect and eventually I will have nothing to do with the item… now, I’ve asked a few people in-game and I told me that there’s a 100% chance that in one month~3 months the prices will rise higher in 300%-400%.
So, what should I do? can I just ask ANet if they might get the dungeon back or release special skins on the gem store?
Thanks again.

So, did you end up holding onto it, or selling it?