match prediction is broken, please fix

match prediction is broken, please fix

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Posted by: Deimos Tel Arin.7391

Deimos Tel Arin.7391

justin,

match prediction is broken,
please fix.
thanks!

http://www.gw2score.com/PvP/player/Deimos-Tel-Arin7391

i had 2 games this morning,

Date Wins Loses Win percent Rank at the end of the day Points at the end of the day
2015-01-08 1 1 50% 786 56
2015-01-07 7 3 70% 736 57

say i have +1 ladder points for the first game, and -2 ladder points for the 2nd game?

that can’t be right.
in the 2nd game, one of our team mates disconnected before the match even started, the whole game was 4 vs 5 right off the start, and we suffer a -2 ladder points for that?

this is wrong.

please fix match prediction.
thanks justin!

match prediction is broken, please fix

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Posted by: Deimos Tel Arin.7391

Deimos Tel Arin.7391

the other team was no push over.

are you telling me, that our team have a 60-79% chance of winning this match? please, fix match prediction.

surely the odds can’t be 60-79% anymore since our team only have 4 players from start to finish.

our 5th member did not connect to the match at all.

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Posted by: imaclown.1628

imaclown.1628

Pretty sure the 4v5s are a problem he is well aware of, probably doesn’t need 25 topics a day about them.

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Posted by: Deimos Tel Arin.7391

Deimos Tel Arin.7391

Pretty sure the 4v5s are a problem he is well aware of, probably doesn’t need 25 topics a day about them.

regardless of that, match prediction is wrong, when the match prediction thinks the 4 player team has a much higher chance to win the match, and the 4 players are penalized for losing the match.

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Posted by: NeXeD.3042

NeXeD.3042

Pretty sure the 4v5s are a problem he is well aware of, probably doesn’t need 25 topics a day about them.

regardless of that, match prediction is wrong, when the match prediction thinks the 4 player team has a much higher chance to win the match, and the 4 players are penalized for losing the match.

But you know it is because it still considers that 5th person in the matchmaking, it’s flawed yes but you know what’s going on, I know what’s going on you can bet your auntie mays grits anet devs know what’s going on. My point is there are enough kittening topics on this board kittening about matchmaking we don’t need a new one every 5 seconds it’s not helping.

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Posted by: Deimos Tel Arin.7391

Deimos Tel Arin.7391

Pretty sure the 4v5s are a problem he is well aware of, probably doesn’t need 25 topics a day about them.

regardless of that, match prediction is wrong, when the match prediction thinks the 4 player team has a much higher chance to win the match, and the 4 players are penalized for losing the match.

But you know it is because it still considers that 5th person in the matchmaking, it’s flawed yes but you know what’s going on, I know what’s going on you can bet your auntie mays grits anet devs know what’s going on. My point is there are enough kittening topics on this board kittening about matchmaking we don’t need a new one every 5 seconds it’s not helping.

5 vs 4 games before the match even began should not be even allowed to start.

waste of time, waste of resources.

match prediction is broken, please fix

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Posted by: NeXeD.3042

NeXeD.3042

Ok, point still stands. Do you think you are bringing something to the attention of the devs that hasn’t yet? The answer is no so your just another qqer on top of other qqers.

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Posted by: GhOst.4019

GhOst.4019

They are implementing Forfeit/ Bi’s for the 4v5 issue. As of now you % win chance wont change if people leave the match. This is a TEST season and it isn’t perfect for obveoouse reasons. If you want to suggest things (most have been already), then go to the thread and keep the suggestions up. Needs more love.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/pvp/Byes-Forfeits/first#post4658078

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#1 Player Comoros

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Posted by: Justin ODell.9517

Justin ODell.9517

PvP Server Programmer

Next

in the 2nd game, one of our team mates disconnected before the match even started, the whole game was 4 vs 5 right off the start, and we suffer a -2 ladder points for that?

this is wrong.

please fix match prediction.

Sounds more like we need to fix taking a ladder hit when someone deserts the game. Once someone leaves, there really isn’t much of a way to gauge the outcome because any person could have played a critical role in the comp or not.

Server Programmer (sPvP)
Isle of Janthir: Flux, Latch, Aegir

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Posted by: GhOst.4019

GhOst.4019

Justin. I understand that you can’t figure a proper percent; but 4v5 is 98 percent of the time a loss. Have I won 4v5? Yes. Is it rare? Yes. There is no real way to fix that besides just making the match “not count”. As in, Bye’s & forfeits. If you re-factor the percent, it could be abused. Just make it if the team looses, nothing lost. If they manage to win 4v5, give them credit for the epic win. Only fair way to do it.

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Posted by: imaclown.1628

imaclown.1628

What if a 4v5 just gives everyone the minimum amount of points that a win would get. Basically everytime there is a 4v5 it’s a +1 to everyone while not counting in win loss column. This makes everyone happy I think?

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Posted by: orenwolf.1953

orenwolf.1953

What stops someone from deserting when it’s clear they’re going to lose, so they don’t take the ladder hit, then?

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Posted by: NeXeD.3042

NeXeD.3042

What stops someone from deserting when it’s clear they’re going to lose, so they don’t take the ladder hit, then?

I was thinking more along the lines of 4v5 games that started as a 4v5 games, not ones where someone dcs or quits.

Attention Moderators I am not
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Posted by: Benjamin.8237

Benjamin.8237

Can anyone explain why my wins are so sporadic? It was pretty consistent near the beginning with only a few blowout days but in the last week no matter what I do I seem to be losing constantly and getting paired with bad teams etc. It’s very confusing.

http://www.gw2score.com/PvP/player/Benjamin8237

P R I N C E | Best Renger EU
You can find me in PvP | I normally answer PMs

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Posted by: Saiyan.1704

Saiyan.1704

in the 2nd game, one of our team mates disconnected before the match even started, the whole game was 4 vs 5 right off the start, and we suffer a -2 ladder points for that?

this is wrong.

please fix match prediction.

Sounds more like we need to fix taking a ladder hit when someone deserts the game. Once someone leaves, there really isn’t much of a way to gauge the outcome because any person could have played a critical role in the comp or not.

What’s so wrong with changing the odds of victory? A team’s odds of victory Should drastically reduce if it’s a handicap.

If the handicap team wins, they should be rewarded due to their odds of victory being much lower.

If they lose, their rank points shouldn’t take a huge toll, if any.

aka FalseLights
Rank: Top 250 since Season 2
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Posted by: Justin ODell.9517

Previous

Justin ODell.9517

PvP Server Programmer

What’s so wrong with changing the odds of victory? A team’s odds of victory Should drastically reduce if it’s a handicap.

If the handicap team wins, they should be rewarded due to their odds of victory being much lower.

If they lose, their rank points shouldn’t take a huge toll, if any.

We need to be able to message the information consistently through out the match, so we use the starting information.

We could change that, but I believe it still would not be accurate because a 4v5 can impact a team in multiple ways that aren’t easily predictable. It also makes the prediction algorithm much more complex because we’d need to factor in how long players were missing.

Server Programmer (sPvP)
Isle of Janthir: Flux, Latch, Aegir

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Posted by: Errant Venture.9371

Errant Venture.9371

What’s so wrong with changing the odds of victory? A team’s odds of victory Should drastically reduce if it’s a handicap.

If the handicap team wins, they should be rewarded due to their odds of victory being much lower.

If they lose, their rank points shouldn’t take a huge toll, if any.

We need to be able to message the information consistently through out the match, so we use the starting information.

We could change that, but I believe it still would not be accurate because a 4v5 can impact a team in multiple ways that aren’t easily predictable. It also makes the prediction algorithm much more complex because we’d need to factor in how long players were missing.

Simplest option seems to be that you simply award no ladder change to a losing team that played man-down (or more) for some arbitrary duration during the match (2 minutes?)

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