I’m so tired of losing to JQ and BG in tier one, but TC just doesn’t have the numbers to compete with them anymore. One week we lost our ebg keep almost every night. This isn’t a QQ we need more players post, just a “I’m tired of losing every week post.” Like seriously, if JQ knew how little players we had on during US afternoons and stuff, they could take our keep with like only 20 players. JQ is definitely the elephant in the room.
I’m so tired of losing to JQ and BG in tier one, but TC just doesn’t have the numbers to compete with them anymore. One week we lost our ebg keep almost every night. This isn’t a QQ we need more players post, just a “I’m tired of losing every week post.” Like seriously, if JQ knew how little players we had on during US afternoons and stuff, they could take our keep with like only 20 players. JQ is definitely the elephant in the room.
When the people on lower tiers complain about losing every single week due lack of population, the people from T1 tell us to transfer out.
I’m so tired of losing to JQ and BG in tier one, but TC just doesn’t have the numbers to compete with them anymore. One week we lost our ebg keep almost every night. This isn’t a QQ we need more players post, just a “I’m tired of losing every week post.” Like seriously, if JQ knew how little players we had on during US afternoons and stuff, they could take our keep with like only 20 players. JQ is definitely the elephant in the room.
When the people on lower tiers complain about losing every single week due lack of population, the people from T1 tell us to transfer out.
So here is my advise for you: transfer out
I personally don’t believe that people should transfer out to find decent WvW matches. I feel for the lower tier servers who lose because of the numbers game that is WvW.
Sadly I may indeed just end up transferring out of TC to perhaps the server I started on, Maguuma.
It is not just about numbers… Deso out numbered SFR for all but 2 hours every day during the tournament and we still won. They still out number us most of the time and we still beat them.
At the end of the day it comes down to commitment… it is not that we have more players or better coverage… it is because we have enough players who are willing to go without sleep to win. …and when you have players spending 12+ hours a day, every day, doing nothing but wvw… you tend to become better than the opposition and win the majority of your fights.
Numbers and coverage do play a role but they are not always the main reason why a server wins.
Nymeria Meliae | SoS
Acid Bath Babies Go Plop Plop [FizZ]
Maybe if Mag ppts hard enough they will end up in T1.
I don’t think TC being in T2 will make for a balanced matchup though.
It might be an uphill climb for the other two servers, but it would provide something Tier 2 has been lacking, a challenge. I’m not suggesting TC stay in Tier 2, but going there for a week before returning to tier 1 would provide much needed break from the mindless skilless blobs that is JQ. That server just needs to be moved to the china servers, it has no business being with all our other servers.
I’m pretty sure T2 is not interested in having TC there……
Unless the nightly (NA 7pm – 12am pacific) fighting is a lie, TC is much smaller than most know.
Not keeping all IT jobs here is a major reason IT is so bad HERE. 33y IT 10y IT Security
right now there are few servers that are fightings other servers for a long time.
It would be great if you would look on these matchups and manualkly adjust next week reset so you will break these chains and servers will be allowed to go up/down based on their performance.
For example, check Arborstone and DL how they are doing and the gap between Baruch and Arborstone.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
Thanks for regularly updating this Snowreap I really appreciate the numbers and such for matchup probability.
Looking at the stats, it seems that the biggest boon of being in tiers 3-5 seems to be a higher chance of different matchups. Tiers 1-2 and the bottom tiers seem to be stuck in a closed system of matchup chance, granted the lower tiers have it better than the upper two tiers. I am excited that TC is finally moving in the downwards direction. If the current losing streak on our part keeps up, we could finally be in tier 2 sometime in the fall.
Question: does anyone know when/if season 3 starts? I am considering moving to a tier 2 or 3 server.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
It’s always fun to watch a dominating server get tested in a higher tier. The SBI/IoJ/GoM matchup thread was a fun read, lol.
There is a great chance that DR will face one or two of DB/SBI/YB/CD with CD being the most likely of the group to be DR’s opponent. Since CD is basically a T3 server or at least near T3, this will be a big test for DR since they aren’t simply going to face T4 servers.
Now for my own tier, there is over a 99% chance that SoS/FA/Mag happens again.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
59.55% chance Mag stays in T2.
40.45% chance Mag drops to T3/T4.
I can’t take the excitement. Tomorrow I will be spamming F at the Red BL portal while peeing my pants.
You got that a little messed up. There’s just a 40.45% chance of them not facing SoS. That includes the chances of SoS moving up which are just a little bit less than of Mag moving down.
It’s a 40.45% chance of not playing FA (check the na1 file). Since FA is stuck in T2 and Mag can’t move up to T1, any match without FA means dropping down.
59.55% chance Mag stays in T2.
40.45% chance Mag drops to T3/T4.
I can’t take the excitement. Tomorrow I will be spamming F at the Red BL portal while peeing my pants.
You got that a little messed up. There’s just a 40.45% chance of them not facing SoS. That includes the chances of SoS moving up which are just a little bit less than of Mag moving down.
Probably more like 22%-24%
RNGs taken the .6% chance before… May we all pray to the RNG gods this reset for mag to drop.
I personally would like to see that miniscule chance of them facing DR, just to see how the bandwagon deals with them.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
Not really… You’re always more likely to stay in the tier you are unless your rating dropped to a different tier.
Assuming no tournament, Mag is the most likely server to occupy the 6th rank, but that doesn’t mean they are likely to do so.
If that sounds confusing, imagine there are 3 players competing in a game. Player A has a 40% chance of winning. B has a 35% chance. C has a 25% chance. A is the best bet to win yet still has a 60% chance of losing.
Looking at the file Snowreap posted, Mag has a 39.55% chance of staying in T2. A better chance than any individual server ranked lower than them. Yet they still have a 60.45% chance of dropping.
since this is the last week of the Fall 2014 tournament, and I haven’t heard that any matchmaking changes are coming, I assume will be returning to the randomized matchup system.
here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.
the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.
also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.
How the heck is NSP’s rating still so low? They’ve been battling higher ranked servers and doing well this whole tourney. They could beat SBI and DR this week yet are still ranked 13th.
