I’m amazed that nothing has been done about the ratings system for tier 8 yet. The math is fundamentally broken for the following reasons:
1. rating points within each tier are almost entirely a zero-sum game
2. the farther above the tier average a team gets, the harder it is to take even more points from the other teams
3. the delta between tier 7 and tier 8 is over 50% higher than any of the other tier gaps
All of these things together make tier 8 essentially a black hole, that is impossible to escape without ridiculous victories week after week after week. It probably didn’t start out that way, but the tier averages have shifted around since launch as a result of teams moving up & down, and this is what we’re left with today. Take a look at the current scores for tier 8:
http://mos.millenium.org/matchups#NA
As of this writing, SF has more points than the other two teams combined, and yet is on track to lose 50+ rating points this week because they aren’t beating ET and FC hard enough.
To further illustrate, take a look at last week’s average rating for each tier, along with the delta to the next higher tier:
tier average delta
1 2170.63 —
2 1966.56 204.08
3 1789.33 177.23
4 1622.01 167.32
5 1401.75 220.25
6 1233.47 168.29
7 1062.41 171.06
8 730.90 331.50
The gap from 8 to 7 is over 50% higher than any of the other gaps.
Based on this analysis, and on personal experience, I’m really disappointed in the recent server transfer policy as well. In addition to doing nothing to solve the fundamental math problem, the allowance of transfers into tier 7 has damaged the population balance there as well (in what was previously the most balanced tier.)
Fixing tier 8 would have taken exactly two steps:
1. Normalize ET and FC upward by ~165+ points each, to improve the tier 8 average to 840+. I know this is unprecedented, but if you want to keep the current rating formulas, that’s pretty much the only way to make it reasonable to move between 7 and 8 (without 8 being the kiss of death.) This is the difference between theory and practice: the ratings system is fine in theory, but in practice it leaves the gaps between tiers entirely to chance, which has resulted in the 3rd tier 8 team being unfairly punished. The correct response is to fix the problem, and move on. (Bonus points if you can invent a method to keep the gaps between tier averages permanently normalized, going forward.) This is a “learning experience”.
2. Allow free server transfers to ET and FC only. The current policy could even make things worse for tier 8, before all is done. Considering that the transfer policy does nothing to fix the tier 8 math problem, if I were down there it would be entirely rational to escape from 8 to 7 if given a chance like this.
If any tier 8’ers are taking the jump to 7, flip a coin and come to NSP or GOM — HOD already got a ton of folks, and I’d love to see some balance come back into 7 again.