Showing Posts For Fallen Healer Hun.9638:
My Guildmate had his 10th or 11th precursor this weekend, simply logged in for an our, dropped his yellows into the forge. he doesnt even remember it’s name, because in the last half year he got one every month, so precursor is a pretty common thing to him.
I had one, Venom, almost 2 years ago
In our guild, with 30 ppl, there are not one other, with this luck.
Anyone has similar experiences?
(Yes, I’m jealous
)
Or they are just linking them in guild chat to troll you.
Unfortunately don’t, he has 4 or more legendaries, he made it from farm/sold the other precursors, if I remember well, theres Quip, Incinerator,The Dreamer and Kudzu.
get the stuff, give to your friend and ask him/her to pull a miracle from the mystic toillet.
I will certainly try that , who knows
Maybe they also do a lot more forges than your other guildies? If they do 100 forges a day on average while other members of you guild do 5-10, then they will get 10-20 times more precursors in the same amount of time (on average). Many people in my guild have had precursor drops while I never had one. However, many of those play at least twice as much a day, which does matter.
My last try was 200 crafted greatswords, but thats only 50 roll in a row, i got 4-5 low cost exos
Yes, and do you do that once every week, 2 weeks, month, year? And how often do those “lucky people” do this? My point still stands. If this year you MF 1000 rares, and they MF 10000, they are very likely to get more precursors than you do.
And then there is the principle that there will be some people getting very lucky and some very unlucky with a system like this, as Tom Gore has explained. In short, these anecdotes carry too little weight to be used as evidence for saying that the RNG is actually not working well.
Of course, that does not mean you have to like the current system, but there are existing threads where you can give your feedback, and the precursor problem will be adressed in some way in the expansion, though we do not know many details yet.
Neither me, nor him wont craft and put in into MF hundreds of rares,
he simply puts his dropped yellows from into MF.
I didn’t said i have problem with the current RNG system and I didn’t think it’s broken,
just wanted to point out the thing is happening and exists, as Tom said earlier:
“True randomness means there needs to be some extremely “unlucky” streaks, and some extremely “lucky” streaks. If there weren’t, it would not be truly random.”
and I think it would be great to make the RNG like he mentioned:
“Finally, I would like to say true randomness in an MMO probably isn’t the best way of handling progression and loot. A good system would be random, but would also include a so-called “streak-killer” algorithm, that would cut (at least) bad streaks eventually, guaranteeing a “hit” after enough “misses”.
Tom!
As i wrote earlier:
“I don’t think there is a numeric value in the account database, where the prec drop chance is stored and it’s different for each account.”
I know exactly the meaning of equal distribution, sorry if i was misunderstandable
sigh
You guys are a perfect example of how people perceive “randomness”. You think randomness means everything is distributed equally. It’s doesn’t, so stop thinking like that.
True randomness means there needs to be some extremely “unlucky” streaks, and some extremely “lucky” streaks. If there weren’t, it would not be truly random.
I’ll give you a good exercise that might or might not open your eyes.
Write down a series of 0s and 1s in what you think is a truly random sequence. Make it long enough, say for example 100 numbers.
Then, start up excel and enter this formula:
=ROUND ( RAND ( ) ; 0)
And copy it through 100 cells.
Let me know your observations when you compare your own “random” sequence and the computer generated random sequence.
Finally, I would like to say true randomness in an MMO probably isn’t the best way of handling progression and loot. A good system would be random, but would also include a so-called “streak-killer” algorithm, that would cut (at least) bad streaks eventually, guaranteeing a “hit” after enough “misses”.
We / I know what RNG means, but if always suck for me, and always not for him, thats not truly RNG, RNG affects him too, then why RNG is his side always?
;)If you flip a coin, it has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails. If you flip a coin 7 times, and it lands on heads every time, what’s the chance it will land on tails on the 8th flip? It will still be 50%, because each flip is independent and separate from each other.
The same logic applies to loot drops. Every time you throw in some rares/exotics into the forge, you have a set chance of getting a precursor back. If you try for a precurser 100 times and fail each and every time, your 101th try won’t have a better or worse chance because you failed 100 times before. Each and every attempt is separate.
People like to try and draw patterns when there isn’t one. And this is a case where there isn’t a pattern, no matter how much you insist there is.
No, I doesn’t insist, as i wrote earlier, I know each roll is separate, and doesn’t affected by the previous outcome, this is Luck
Maybe they also do a lot more forges than your other guildies? If they do 100 forges a day on average while other members of you guild do 5-10, then they will get 10-20 times more precursors in the same amount of time (on average). Many people in my guild have had precursor drops while I never had one. However, many of those play at least twice as much a day, which does matter.
My last try was 200 crafted greatswords, but thats only 50 roll in a row, i got 4-5 low cost exos
Why has there been so many conspiracy theorists active lately?
I think there are a lot of factors that affects the prec drop: MF%, number of tries, and so on, and I don’t think there is a numeric value in the account database, where the prec drop chance isstored and it’s different for each account.
But you cannot deny it, it’s pure luck, when you log in, go out to some map, and the you get a pre from the first mob
I made my Rodgort, with buying the pre, and grinding all the mats, money, obsidian to make it
My Guildmate had his 10th or 11th precursor this weekend, simply logged in for an our, dropped his yellows into the forge. he doesnt even remember it’s name, because in the last half year he got one every month, so precursor is a pretty common thing to him.
I had one, Venom, almost 2 years ago
In our guild, with 30 ppl, there are not one other, with this luck.
Anyone has similar experiences?
(Yes, I’m jealous)
Yep, the Events are bugged, and Arah isn’t accessible on Gandara too,
(and was not accessible in the last 4 days too
)