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obfuscated projected profit

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

It was indeed sold to a buy order, according to dirtyklingon.

One distinct possibility is that the buy order you wanted to sell to (at 5g30s) got filled before you sold it yourself, and then when you sold it the highest buy order was down to 5g.

Who sets Gem prices?

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lackofcheese.5617

What, exactly, is the “problem” that people are suggesting is present?

To me, it seems like the current system is working just fine already.

is it time to boycot the trading post?

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

More importantly, it’s not a false syllogism because it isn’t a syllogism.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Well the person who reported the godskull exploit to Anet made a post on guru and said himself that he made 900 gold off of it and he apparently had zero trouble realising that it was an exploit (that’s why he reported it)

I don’t know about “zero trouble”, but yes it’s clear that that person realised it and reported it, which means that they at least thought might be an exploit.

I think the precursors were only around 100 gold or less at the time which meant he must have made at least 9 of them to make that kind of profit. If he managed to get that many of them my guess would be that the chance of a precursor drop from godskull weapons was much higher than it currently is by using exotic weapons.

I saw that thread on GW2Guru, but I don’t think you’re right about it.

Here’s quotes from the GW2Guru thread:

It costs 60 silvers when I initially crafted it. I can sell the exotics that I get for average 3.5 G even at 20% chance. You can’t really lose money.

I have never stated it to be a higher chance. It has the same percentage as the guide. The only difference is that it is approximately 1/2 the cost of what everyone is doing.

Sure, VisualNover might be lying (he does have an incentive to), but the explanation
(which is the explanation I gave earlier) makes good sense, and the price history is right there on the TP if you want to check it.

Basically, if you could spend ~60s per batch you’re putting into the forge, and get an exotic to sell for an average of 3.5G 20% of the time, then you’d already be making money whether you got precursors or not. Doing thousands of conversions probably would’ve earnt a solid profit even if you got 0 Dusks out of it.

So, while VisualNover seems to have realised that this was something that ArenaNet should look into, I think there could easily have been a number of other players who never realised that there was a problem.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

How do you know it was “obvious”? Or maybe you used that exploit yourself, and that’s why you know?

I’m not the one coming up with nonsensical hypothetical situations – the “60 silver into 900g in 2 minutes” is the only nonsensical hypothetical I’ve seen, and you’re the one who said it. If you’ve got good evidence that that was actually the reality of the situation, then go ahead and present it, because otherwise you’re the one making up nonsensical hypotheticals.

That being said, I think that according to the rules of conduct, whether or not you know something is an exploit doesn’t even matter anyway. You’re breaking the rules of conduct even if you don’t know.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Shift the tax burden from the producers to the consumers

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Firebelley, you seem to have missed the point that was made previously by a couple of other posters.

The point is that, regardless of which end the burden is on, the seller will get 85% of the money the buyer paid. Whether that’s because it takes it out of the seller’s account after the buyer pays it, or out of the buyer’s account before sending the rest to the seller, is irrelevant.

I’ll try to express it differently; maybe it’ll get the point across. I’m happy to admit that the point being made is actually a little bit mind-blowing, so it might take some thought to piece it together.

Let’s say you put up an item for 100g. You pay a 5g listing fee, and then at the point of sale, the buyer pays 100g and you get 90g – 10g was lost to sales tax. This is the current system, and it’s what you’re complaining about.

Now, let’s say the system was changed so that the buyer pays the sales tax. Here’s what it looks like:
You put up an item for 90g. You pay a 5g listing fee, and then at the point of sale, the buyer pays 100g and you get 90g – 10g was lost to sales tax.

As you can see, in my above example, the buyer pays the same amount, and the seller receives the same amount, so it’s the exact same transaction. The only difference is that the number on the TP that is shown as the “price” is a different number.

Basically, it’s the difference between including the tax in the listed price, à la the Autralian GST, or adding tax onto the listed price at the register, as is done in the U.S.

Granted, in the above scenario the tax numbers work out to a listing fee of ~5.55% and a sales tax of ~11.1%, but if what you wanted was a slight change in tax rates, then that’s what you should ask for, not a change in how the tax is paid.

Overall, I would say that it makes sense for the sales price because the seller already has listing fees to deal with, while keeping the buying process straightforward enhances ease of use.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

No one in their right mind would not notice that making 900g in 2-3 minutes is not supposed to happen (y’know, maybe the whole “Not in the game anywhere else” thing might tip you off).

So yeah, it doesn’t really matter what you think about it or whether or not you can make up thousands of tortured pathetic arguments about someone theoretically not realizing that instantly converting 60s in rares into 900g is not supposed to happen.

I seriously doubt that that is at all an accurate description of what the problem was with that exploit. I expect people making big profit from that exploit would have done thousands of forgings, if not tens of thousands.

My understanding is that the odds were, at the time, not much different for the Godskull weapons than what they are now for level 80 weapons; some people just managed to do very many conversions because they were spending a lot less on each batch to put into the Forge, and because the prices on exotics (which come out 20% of the time) were priced higher then than they are now.

Nonetheless, if it really was a magical “turn 60 silver into 900g in 2 minutes” button the way you’re saying it was, I completely agree that it was obviously an exploit.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

The precursor rng however is so abysmal that it creates astounding differences. The money spent in the MF for a precursor can range anywhere from 0.5 gold to potentially even 1000 gold. There’s nothing wrong with a bit of luck based systems. Luck can help players to speed up their progressions by getting mystic clovers faster or salvaging more globs of ectoplasm. But a possible 1000 gold difference is just far too much. The TP is an option yes, but it’s not the source and therefore is not reliable. Someone still has to get lucky and get those precursors in order to sell them.

The thing is, given the huge number of players playing the game, as well as the presence of some very rich players, that kind of luck gets evened out a lot when taken over the entire playerbase. That’s the main reason why the prices have been a lot more stable on the TP lately.

Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of rare level 80 weapons are bought and sold on the TP every day, and I would think that almost all those are being thrown into the forge.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

The core concept and mechanics of what makes an MMO are directly in opposition to what I would call “fair”. However you slice it, MMO mechanics predominantly reward time and/or money rather than skill, and I don’t think either of those things is fair. Some players will have a lot more time to play the game than others, and some will have a lot more money, and it’s not really “fair” for those players to have an advantage simply because of those things.

In my view, a “fair” game would be one where the outcomes are determined mostly by player skill – this clearly isn’t the case in MMOs. Moreover, I would say that randomness still counts as fair, as long as every player gets the same chances. I think many people would agree that Yahtzee is a fair game, and so is a poker tournament, for the most part, yet those games involve significant elements of chance.

I think it’s great that GW2 gets around a lot of the issues with MMOs by making it very easy to get max-stat gear (especially in PvP), and to me that’s a great change with respect to typical MMOs. Only cosmetic items have a big divide, but frankly I don’t see why it’s important at all for the game to be “fair” when it comes to cosmetic items.

That being said, if the majority of players have a serious problem with the way precursors are now, then I guess it’s a flaw in the game, and one ANet to fix. I’m not convinced that it is really a majority, and I haven’t seen a convincing argument as to what exactly is wrong with the system the way it is now. Even so, if there’s a serious outrcy about it, I would expect ArenaNet to fix it. Just be aware that the current system has a very important role in the economy, so it’s not something that can be fixed easily or quickly.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Q: Most Lucrative Crafting Profession?

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Even now, you can still make a profit on crafting level 80 rare weaponry because the Mystic Forge is still driving a huge demand for them.

The edge is pretty slight as a percentage, but they’re traded in large quantities.

What would happen if there's an Auction House?

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

I think an auction house would achieve very little. Prices would be driven up to the level of the lowest buy orders in short order, and past that point it would be the same old 1 copper bidding wars that you get on buy orders.

Basically, it would provide very little functionality compared to the TP, but ArenaNet would have to spend a lot of extra effort implementing a second trade system.

a few little bugs with the BLTP

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

There is already a minimum buying price; both buy and sell orders must be placed above the vendor price.

Ascii's Simple Step by Step Road to Legendary

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

The best statistics I’ve seen on precursors from rares is this post:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Keep-track-of-how-many-rares-you-use-to-make-pre-legendary/page/2#post460282

Based on that, I think the chance to get an exotic is much more like 20% than 12.5% – that 20% figure is also consistent with random forging of many other types of items.

The sample size of 3318 combines for that post is enough to convince me that 0.1% is a pretty good estimate, though it may be different for different types of weapons. What data are you basing the 2.5% / 0.3% numbers on?

Auction 101 (And why are You Losing Coin!)

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lackofcheese.5617

This has been discussed many times on this forum, but there’s quite a few reasons people do this. The most important thing to keep in mind is that there is a very large number of people playing this game. Also, you’re not really going to reach your target audience by posting here – many people here already know this stuff.

Here’s a quick rundown of some reasons:
1) Ignorance – some people don’t realise they’d make more money vendoring some items. As Jestunhi said, in many cases this was before the TP displayed some of this information; back then fewer people knew about the taxes, though many still don’t know about the whole 5%/10% deal.
2) Laziness – some people can’t be bothered going to a vendor to sell items; the TP is generally more convenient.
3) Efficiency – if you’re farming and you end up with a full inventory without being near a vendor, you’re much better off losing a couple of coppers selling on the TP rather than wasting time getting to a vendor.

@John Smith: Why the huge tax on a good which ANet wants to sell? (Gem transfer tax)

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lackofcheese.5617

Yeah, I think that’s roughly the right idea, Cancer. Also relevant is the idea of a market maker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_maker).

Although the “Gem Reserve” analogy is reasonable, it’s not quite right because ArenaNet can’t actually run out of gems.

Basically, you could think of it as the “reserve” having a default level of 0 gems, but with ArenaNet being able to go into “debt” on gems. Presumably, this is how it currently is – ArenaNet is in “debt” and the price of gems in terms of gold will keep rising until people are buying gems enough to even things out, and ArenaNet gets back to a zero on their balance sheet.

All in all, I think this is a good system. It’s still driven by market forces (i.e. the players), so it has a tendency to balance things out, and yet it’s much more convenient to use than buying/selling from and to players, because you’re guaranteed not to be ripped off or forced to wait a long time.

The large gap between ArenaNet’s bid and ask prices also serves an important role in ensuring the stability of the market, as well as creating an additional gold sink. If there was no gap, gem speculation would abound, and the opportunities for profit would cause the exchange rate to behave much more insanely than it currently does.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Well, if you play for 1000 hours trying to get a precursor and don’t get one, you only have yourself to blame; that’s more than enough time to save up the gold for one.

As for rewarding skill, the fact is that PvE content of MMOs simply isn’t about rewarding skill. Your only reward for skill is doing content faster or getting more loot. What MMOs reward is time or money, and that’s the way it always is, in every MMO – either you grind for a very long time, or you buy gold (hopefully through developer-sanctioned means).

In any case, the RNG in GW2 is fair in the usual sense – everyone has the same chances going into something, and things tend towards averaging out in the long run. On the other hand, in terms of results, all RNG is unfair – different people will get different results for doing the same thing. It’s also unfair for someone to kill a mob, have it drop an Unidentified Dye, and open it to get an Abyss Dye, while you kill the same mob and get a white item.

I guess the issue that people have is that “the long run” for the above situation is much shorter than “the long run” for precursors, due to the odds being so small, but precursors are supposed to, on average, take a long time to get, so “the long run” in question is made up of months as opposed to hours.

Either way, I don’t go into an MMO expecting things to be “fair”. If fairness was the only thing I wanted from a game, I’d play something like Counter-Strike (though even then some players have an advantage due to having faster internet connections, faster hardware, or better peripherals – the same goes for MMOs, of course).

By MMO standards, GW2 is right up there in terms of fairness, because it’s not at all difficult to get gear with maximum stats, which means that most people are genuinely on a level playing field, unlike in all too many other MMOs. The sPVP system is especially great in this regard, because it is genuinely fair – everyone can go straight into sPVP as soon as they start playing, and not be at a disadvantage with respect to gear.

Moreover, due to the gold:gem trading system, unlike in many MMOs there isn’t any content that’s exclusive to people who pay more money than you, which is also reasonably fair. Nonetheless, it’s still the case that someone can pay money to get more gold and get items more easily – that is simply part of the stark reality of MMOs.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Yeah, 0 exotics from 458 attempts is very difficult to believe, especially given that the evidence indicates that the probability is indeed ~20%.

If that really did happen to you, it’s more likely a bug in the game than simple bad luck.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Another thing that bothers me is the attitude people seem to be taking towards precursors, exemplified by the many stories of people throwing lots of gold into weapons to throw into the forge, and then quitting the game when they don’t get a precursor. It seems to me that this kind of single-minded attitude isn’t a particularly good way to approach any game, though I guess it’s an attitude that’s very common among many MMOs.

If getting a legendary is in fact “the only endgame”, as some people claim it is, what are you going to do after you’ve got your legendary? Just stop playing? If so, what’s the point of getting one if you’re just going to stop playing as soon as you have it anyway? How long can you spend sitting around in Lion’s arch with your legendary weapon before you get bored?

Or maybe you would keep, you know, playing the game even after you have your legendary? The whole point of GW2 is that almost everything you can do in the game is part of the so-called “endgame”. PvP in particular is perhaps the most enduring endgame content in this game, because unlike in PvE where it’s mostly just the exact same thing every time, people aren’t simple, predictable bits of code (although they do often act like it…). Other than that, though, everywhere you can go in this world, and everything you can do, is supposed to be part of the so-called “endgame”. Yes, there are a few ways in which the difficulty and the loot system don’t live up to this design philosophy, but that is still a core element of the design philosophy of this game.

Now, it may well be the case that many people are playing with the sole purpose of getting a precursor, and that would indicate that the content of GW2 simply isn’t up to scratch. That may well be true, but if so, then the problem isn’t really the precursor RNG, is it? If the content of the game isn’t actually enjoyable, changing the mechanics of getting a precursor just isn’t going to solve the problem. Moreover, if the content sucks, then the only way to win is not to play.

To me, it seems that the thing to do is just play the game however you want to play it, and enjoy doing it. Whatever it is you want to do, you’ll earn gold, and if you’re earning gold you’re getting closer to your precursor. Of course, you can choose to throw weapons into the forge as well; there’s a decent chance you’ll get lucky and get one for less than it would cost you on the TP. It’s gambling, of course, and of course you can end up throwing away hundreds of gold, but that’s something you know about before you go into it; it’s entirely your choice.

If you do want to gamble for a precursor, at least do it on a sensible basis, rather than dumping all your gold in and then quitting the game. Don’t just spend all your gold – leave yourself some to spend on doing whatever else you want to do in-game. You could also choose to keep saving up gold while doing a smallish number of Mystic Forgings each week; that way you’ve got decent odds of getting one, while having the “insurance” of getting one even if you keep getting unlucky.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Personally, I’m not really at all bothered by the RNG, but if the RNG system is a serious problem for a large proportion of players, then I guess ArenaNet will have to change it. It is, however, a change that has to be done with great care, given the purpose the Mystic Forge serves in the game’s economy. As such, even if they do want to change the system, it’s unreasonable to expect it to change within any short period of time.

That being said, you don’t have to rely on RNG to get a precursor. They are bought and sold on the trading post, and, given the low odds of getting one, the current TP prices are pretty decent, especially for some of the less-wanted precursors like Chaos Gun or Leaf of Kudzu – from what I’ve seen, less than 200g is a bargain. Despite the scaremongering I’ve seen over the past weeks, suggesting that precursors were in a rapid and never-ending upwards price spiral, the facts contradict this idea – as I have been saying they would. For example, the price of Dusk has, in fact, gone down in the past week.

As such, saving up and buying one on the TP is an entirely viable option. Yes, you’ll probably get a better deal on average with the RNG, but if you can’t handle RNG, no one is forcing you to do it. Some might argue that the price is too high, but that’s not what people have been complaining about, and nor have I seen a reasonable argument as to what the price actually ought to be. In particular, a price of several hundred gold is entirely in line with the rest of the components you need to make a legendary.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

As with the TP, the Mystic Forge is a crucial pillar of the entire in-game economy. In Linsey’s own words (from a different thread):

I want you guys to think about this a bit. Seriously. Why would we ever want to systematically discourage you from chucking things into the Forge or salvaging them as often or as fast as you want to? It is SO SO SO (I can’t stress this enough) important for items to be leaving the economy at a healthy ratio to the items being created and entering the economy, otherwise, there would be no economy. Everything would pile up and pile up until everything was worth nothing because the supply would be endlessly higher than the demand.

It was ArenaNet’s intention that something like 3000 rare weapons would be dumped into the Mystic Forge for every precursor that comes out; doing this helps to keep a healthy market going for many types of weapons.

One might argue that a lot of these weapons are being created specifically to be thrown into the Forge, but then you have to consider that they’re created with other materials; in the case of the greatswords it’s Mithril Ore, Elder Wood Logs, and most commonly Large Bones. As low as the prices for those materials are, they’re much higher than they would be if it wasn’t for people wanting precursors.

It’s true that you could put some of these crafting materials into a fixed recipe, but then there would be less demand for many rare and exotic weapons, which would also be a problem.

I guess you could make a recipe that consists of, say, 3000 rare swords, but given that swords don’t stack, that would be rather inconvenient and would require lots of intermediate steps.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

New apps being created, if this is legal im out.

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lackofcheese.5617

Um, did you not read what I quoted? That site specifically said that “the application reads the session key used for the trading post from RAM”, which is definitely against the user agreement.

Accessing via your own browser would give you a different kind of session key than one generated by a login from the game client (this type of key also doesn’t allow you to place buy/sell orders). It would be OK if this was the approach taken by this app, but the fact is that the way it operates is in violation of the user agreement.

Why people are not using the brains they have...

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

If you know that an item will reliably sell at 2s, then it’s silly of you to complain about someone posting it for 1.5s. Just buy it and resell it at 2s, and while you’re at it you’ll make a 20c profit.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

It’s nice to see that some people are actually going for the water legendaries; Kraitkin is pretty cool-looking I reckon.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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lackofcheese.5617

Yes, you can get one from combining different types, as well as Mystic Forge Stones (which are still cheaper than most exotics at the moment, I think). The thing is that that some of the precursors you might get aren’t valued very highly at the moment, e.g. Venom which is selling at 17g.

Who sets Gem prices?

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lackofcheese.5617

Why should ANet change things when the gold:gem exchange rate is already adjusting itself in that direction?

New apps being created, if this is legal im out.

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lackofcheese.5617

But is it cool with Anet or what’s the deal with it?

I thought Gw2spidy was totally kosher, then an app that automates buy/sell is only a little more than what gw2spidy does

Well, in terms of what is considered acceptable, I’d say that there is a reasonable line to be drawn between information-gathering and automatically placing orders.

However, given the way the TP is set up, it doesn’t seem like something that would be easy for ANet to enforce.

New apps being created, if this is legal im out.

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lackofcheese.5617

That would make it against the rules for the person running the GW2Spidy server, yes.

However, as far as I can tell, that doesn’t make it against the rules to access or view the website, which is the relevant part to most people.

New apps being created, if this is legal im out.

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lackofcheese.5617

It’s against the user agreement.
From the site:

The application reads the session key used for the trading post from RAM.

From the user agreement (https://www.guildwars2.com/en/legal/guild-wars-2-user-agreement/):

You acknowledge that You may not, without signed written consent from a legally authorized representative of NCsoft, do any of the following:
[…]
(i) Use, obtain or provide data related to operation of the Game, including but not limited to:
(i) software that reads areas of computer memory or storage devices related to the Game;

Overall, though, it doesn’t really make that much of a difference either way – this type of application is not much different to GW2Spidy, and using the GW2Spidy API you could write your own application to do pretty much the same thing.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Is It Possible To Create Precursors By Forging Random Level 80 Weapon Types?

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lackofcheese.5617

Yes, you can get a precursor by throwing weapons of different types into the Forge, but it can be any precursor – including the ones that people don’t want much and are only worth ~50g.

As for the odds of a precursor, that’s very difficult to say. My guess would be that the odds of a precursor in general would be pretty much the same as with specific weapon types, but of course the odds of getting any specific precursor would be much lower.

One advantage of random weapons is that if you’re throwing exotics in you can use a Mystic Forge Stone instead of one of them, which is cheaper at current gold:gem rates.

Overall, I’d say it probably isn’t worthwhile, because too many of the precursors you can get out of it aren’t worth that much.

I can't keep up :(

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lackofcheese.5617

Which one would that be? The trend for Dusk and Dawn, for example, has been pretty steady for a week now.

What the hell is this?

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lackofcheese.5617

It’s not the proportions – it is in fact the lowest sell order. If you look up the item mentioned in the OP yourself, you will find that there is 4 sell orders at ~40s, 1 sell order at ~90s, and 3 at ~8g – an average of around 2.3g. The GW2Spidy data clearly doesn’t reflect this average value.

The average is a rolling average over a period of one day, though you can see the raw data that’s being averaged if you select that curve (click on “Sell Listings Raw Data”).

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

My idea to fix the TP

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lackofcheese.5617

How would that make it unprofitable to buy an item and resell it?

If anything, that would benefit someone buying low and selling higher, because they would pay the 10% tax on the lower buy price instead of the higher sell price.

More importantly, though, what exactly is the problem you’re trying to fix?

What the hell is this?

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lackofcheese.5617

No, there’s still 3 of them up at ~8g each. If it was the average of all sell listings, the average would be almost 4g right now, not 40s.

As far as I know, what GW2Spidy tracks is in fact the highest buy / lowest sell prices – the averaging is done over time.

The important thing to note is that this is an item that’s realistically worth less than a silver, so basically all sell orders up right now are people hoping that someone accidentally or foolishly buys one of these – even at 40s it’s still ridiculously overpriced. The funniest thing about it is that anyone putting one up for 8g would’ve paid 40s in listing fees.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

1 Copper Undercut Problem [Merged Threads]

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lackofcheese.5617

The idea of “forbidden zones” sounds far too complex and unintuitive to me; I think it would tend to be very annoying to use in practice.

1 Copper Undercut Problem [Merged Threads]

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

5% is too large an increment; 1% is a more reasonable figure.

The biggest issue with this type of system is that it would be much less intuitive, however.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Down With the Butter, Up with the Vanilla!

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lackofcheese.5617

If it was true that butter only sells at 2c due to inability to sell at 1c, then there would be sell orders up at 2c, not buy orders.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

In this thread, someone did ~3000 conversions and got 4 Dusks and 0 Dawns (i.e. a rate of ~0.12%), with exotics coming from very close to 20% of conversions.

Why is the price floor 1c above vendor price ?

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

I don’t think there’s a good reason behind that decision; it probably wasn’t fully thought through.

Please change Buy Orders to forbid pricing lower than NPC price...

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

I think what people are asking for is
floor(v/0.85) + 1
where v is the vendor price.

On the whole, it doesn’t really matter that much though.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Thanks for the data, that’s awesome.

I do wonder if the distribution of exotics you get from level 80 rares is the same as the one that you get from level 80 exotics, though. In other words, are you only 5x as likely to get a Dusk from exotics as you are from rares (in accordance with the 20% chance of getting an exotic in the first place), or is the gap greater than 5x?

Given what has been said by Linsey this could be the case, but since the price difference between exotics and rares is more like 8x, rares still look like a better proposition at the moment.

In any case, congratulations on what looks to be a pretty decent profit thus far.

On a side note, if the chance is ~0.1%, I wouldn’t call 1700 combines without a precursor a particularly unlucky streak. It’s not great, but I wouldn’t call yourself particularly unlucky unless you got something like 3000 without a precursor.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

IRL Money has weak buying power

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

I support any policy that requires people to pay more to receive the same amount of golf.

1 Copper Undercut Problem [Merged Threads]

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

As the minimum price increment approaches zero (relative to the cost of the item), the system becomes much more like LIFO than FIFO.

However, either case is fair in that all players have the same options available to them.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Asking the devs for a TP reset.

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

The best solution to underpriced buy orders would be to just remove those, not reset the entire TP.

We need sell ranges and buy ranges.

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

I’m not saying that there’s more buyers than sellers. My point is that if you join 4 servers together, then you can expect roughly 4x as many buyers and 4x as many sellers.

The main difference with a single-server TP would be lower liquidity, which would mean that prices would be more volatile, and take a longer time to equilibriate. This would mean more opportunities to make money, and greater vulnerability to market manipulation.

A single-server TP would be more profitable to people willing to do their research (probably including you), but this would come at the cost of the many other people who don’t know any better.

Buy/sell ranges wouldn’t really help you, though – that would just cause prices to drop faster, as people would be undercutting by larger amounts. Either way, if at price X there is more supply than demand of an item, then price X is too high.

Who sets Gem prices?

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

How exactly does flipping inflate the market?

What it does is increase the liquidity of the market, which achieves exactly what I said – it allows items to be bought/sold quickly without paying a significant penalty.

I don’t see the point of introducing an artificial limitation that prevents people from doing it. What purpose would that serve?

If flipping was not an option anyone buying from a sell order, or selling to a buy order, would lose a lot more money from doing so than they currently do.

Who sets Gem prices?

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Flipping does, in fact, serve a useful market purpose. It reduces the gaps between buy and sell orders, which means that players who want to buy/sell their items right now instead of waiting have to pay a much lower relative premium.

We need sell ranges and buy ranges.

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

There’s more people to compete against, but also more buyers.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

No, it wasn’t clear, at least not to me. If that makes me a troll, that’s the weirdest definition of “troll” I’ve heard. Good day, though.

Frankly, I’m still not sure exactly what statistics you’re using in your own signature. Your number for rare axes is 483, but how can you have thrown 483 axes into the forge? Considering that the forge takes items 4 at a time, you’re not being entirely clear.

Here’s fuller quotes of your posts:

Post here how many attempts it takes you to get your pre-legendary from mystic forge.

The number of attempts is not the number of items thrown into the forge; it’s 1/4 of that number.

Yeah I am only counting the rares I craft, obviously any rares I get back I throw in as well.

Saying that you throw the rares back in in no way implies that you’re including those rares you get back in your overall count.

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

Whatever form you want to quote your own statistics in, you should be clear about what that form is; i.e. not this:

Yeah I am only counting the rares I craft.

Other people are going to post their own stats in whatever form they want to.

(edited by lackofcheese.5617)

Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors

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Posted by: lackofcheese.5617

lackofcheese.5617

It’s easy enough to convert between one and the other, so the most important thing is to provide sufficient data and be clear as to what is meant.

Yes, the number of combines is more useful for probabilities, and the number of rares bought/crafted is useful for profitability analysis, but the number of rares put into the forge isn’t directly useful for either of those purposes.

As such, I don’t think it’s worth noting how many rares were put into the forge, as it is easily confused with the number of rares bought/crafted.