Guild Wars 2

Crossaber.8934:

Maybe it is due to english is my 2nd language. I have issue understand the “skirt” many posters refer to.

Although many light armor legging is surrounded by a robe (or skirt as many poster said), all i see is pant inside the skirt. That’s not what i will actually call a skirt. To me a skirt is actually should show skin inside the skirt no matter it is a long skirt or a short skirt or high cut…. etc

I consider those “skirt” is actually a robe to me. Therefore i see most of the light armor legging are pants with robe…

I do however want to see more real skirt option, like the phoenix legging, magician legging, kama exotic legging, those are real skirt.

yeah we dont just mean naked clothes, we mean extra material from the top that goes below the waist.

just think of it like this, how many gears have you seen that you can actually see any charachters butt (clothed)

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Sub or no sub, cash shop or no cash shop. The beauty of GW2 is that if you quit, you can always come back. The account exists until you get banned, or request a termination. The only problem by leaving is that if you choose to come back, you’re further behind everyone else in terms of wealth.

Getting back to the cash shop discussion, a lot of complainers don’t understand that everything is optional. I know of people who never spent money beyond the initial box price, and are enjoying the game as much as big Gem buyer like myself. I can afford microtransactions, so I choose to spend on fluff. If Anet does something really great (i.e. Cantha), I spend more. My money goes to NCSoft, which I hope in turn goes back to Anet to develop more content.

I think the cash shop works in theory, but in practice, seems like a lot of resources, and things that would be more satisfying in game, go to the cash shop.

When you look at it in the purest sense, depending on how you monetize, decides what you do, and cash shop models logical conclusion is to make as much content that sells as possible, while doing as little as possible to keep people interested in other ways.

The advantage of the sub model, is their goal is to keep you wanting to pay month after month. Their primary means of monetization, is to keep giving you things to do, and keep you wanting to log back in.

The advantage of the buy2p model is you get a complete product, their goal is not neccesarrily to keep you playing forever, but to make sure you have a really good experience so you will buy the next item.
.

right now, the flaw in the GW2 monetization plan, for me anyhow, is they arent giving me enough to keep me engaged, and the stuff they are bringing isnt really giving me a really good time.

touching on your optional part.

The problem for many players isnt that they cant get the items in the cash shop, its that they want meaty content, and things to do in game, and most of the new content they see is pretty shallow and in the gem store.

people are looking for reasons to play the game, there is very little carrot for playing the game in the GW2, but lot of carrot for gem store.

Djinn.9245:

phys.7689:

polls dont really matter in this case, they have a really strong poll already, they can see which gear sells better.

People need to face facts, fashion isnt about morals, or functionality, or immersion. Fashion is about what people want to wear.

They main problem is the Art team has a finite amount of ability to provide different fashions, so they have to appeal to what sells best. Seeing how dress up is so big in these games, one would think some developers would come up with an engine/system designed to shorten the turn around on designs>output

I agree, I just wish there were at least a few representations of light armor that looks like you would actually go adventuring in it. Medium also has hardly any (I wouldn’t go adventuring with a long skirt over my pants).

the designers have an obssession with skirts, the amount of pants showing in this game is surprisingly minimal.
this has nothing to do with male female/skimpy or not, almost every single outfit has a skirt. I think the designers have an aversion to butts, clothed or not.

polls dont really matter in this case, they have a really strong poll already, they can see which gear sells better.

People need to face facts, fashion isnt about morals, or functionality, or immersion. Fashion is about what people want to wear.

They main problem is the Art team has a finite amount of ability to provide different fashions, so they have to appeal to what sells best. Seeing how dress up is so big in these games, one would think some developers would come up with an engine/system designed to shorten the turn around on designs>output

Many people talking about their biggest losses are suffering some serious myopia. Its like someone who died 3 times fighting tequatl talking about how he lost money(back when there was repair fees), ignoring the fact he won the fight.

Point the op is making, is yes you lose on investments some times, but overall its pretty easy to come out ahead OVERALL. Talking about the time you lost 10 g on sprockets and ignoring the other times you made 100g is foolish.

For those who say, the TP is a net loss, sure maybe for the world, but we know its a net loss for the world, the question is, is it a loss for you as a TP player? Its like someone saying the stock market was a loss because they have to pay broker fees.

Heres the truth, TP is pvp, you take your money from other players, mostly less educated (on tp) or people who dont care. You essentially siphon money from all the players who arent playing the same game as you. Redistributing wealth into your pockets.

I mean its fine, but stop lying to yourself, saying you COULD lose money on the TP if you are foolish, you could lose money waypointing over the map, or leaving dungeon runs due to anger, or failing tequatl/wurm.

Lets be real and honest. The risk on the TP is minimal overall when you have even an inkling what you are doing, for an actual TP player. The risk is extremely great for a non TP player, but they dont know/dont care that they have just lost value, in fact they will often argue with you until you are blue in the face, when you talk about things like opportunity costs, transforming items, waiting, variance, etc.

TLDR, actual TP players lose little to no money, but gain money the overall. Whether the TP is a net loss in value for the economy is totally and completely irrelevant to whether its a net loss for players. TP players essentially suck money out of players who dont know/care to gain wealth.

Is this bad or not? thats up for debate, but dont try to hide with half truths, obfuscations, and double talks.

really i think charr and asura need more race specific gear. The problem is they always want to throw charr in humanoid clothes, it would be better to make more charr focused designs. And really, its not any harder than making human designs.

I think the idea was probably like peakittens and lions, Charr women have less Showy aspects. like manes etc.
that said i dont think thats a good idea, for players. The female set looks pretty drab compared to the male set.

perhaps if it had something else going for it

mtpelion.4562:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

mtpelion.4562:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

mtpelion.4562:

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Beldin.5498:

Draknar.5748:

That aside, considering gems are purchasable which can be instantly converted to gold, the whole premise of “newly generated money” via dungeons being a bad thing is rendered completely moot. In half a minute I can spend $10.00 at the gemstore and convert that to ~70g.

Totally wrong .. the gold is not generated out of thin air, you just get the gold that some other people pay to buy gems, and even there a part of that gold is removed from the economy.

You have it backwards.

Beldin is most likely 100% correct (I caveat as we don’t know the full coding/operation of the system but can infer it based on ArenaNet explanations and the historical movement of the exchange rate). All gem to gold conversions utilize gold that was created by players in the past and traded in for gems in the past. The only thing that is created out of thin air as part of the transaction is gems (when real money is used to acquire them). Once you have gems, you can trade them for a portion of the pool of gold that other players had previously traded for gems.

I was pretty sure I saw the BLTC forum frequenters say that the gems being bought for gold were gems provided by the people who converted gems to gold, and that the more people who use RL money for gold the lower the gold to gem rate becomes.

I do not know for sure but I did think they did.

All gold is created by the players when they do things that reward gold.
All gems are created by ArenaNet when players buy them with cash.
All gold to gem conversions take existing gold out of the player’s bank and put it on the exchange and remove some number of gems from the exchange and add them to the player’s bank.
All gem to gold conversions take existing gems out of the player’s bank and put them on the exchange and remove some number of gold from the exchange and add it to the player’s bank.

I believe that is what Beldin was referring to. Using your credit card does not create any coins. It creates gems which can be traded for coins.

See if your 2 top points are true, no one could initiate the gem to gold gold to gem first.

That is correct. ArenaNet seeded the exchange with some gold and gems back at launch. Since then it’s been run by the rules above.

no they didnt.
At some point they revealed that the gem to gold system is ruled by an algorithm that determines the value based on some values, and that they can alter those values if they feel like it.
its not a fort knox system its an equation

the system will never no matter what run out of gems. the system will never no matter what run out of gold. It will create it as it sees fit, and try to use the equations for the value to make the output at acceptable levels.

Beldin.5498:

Draknar.5748:

That aside, considering gems are purchasable which can be instantly converted to gold, the whole premise of “newly generated money” via dungeons being a bad thing is rendered completely moot. In half a minute I can spend $10.00 at the gemstore and convert that to ~70g.

Totally wrong .. the gold is not generated out of thin air, you just get the gold that some other people pay to buy gems, and even there a part of that gold is removed from the economy.

actually, it is generated out of thin air. however, there is an equation that decides how much to take out of the market when someone wants to go from gold>gems.

there is no gold in fort knox

there is no actual gem bank. If there was, one wouldnt be able to buy gold at the launch of the game. and they would have issues whenever the current balance of gems and gold buying was out of wack.

So yes, they can make money out of thin air, but some is destroyed whenever people decide to buy gems with gold. Which is doing more? i really have no idea, perhaps the equation balances it pretty well, perhaps not.

TheDaiBish.9735:

Kurrilino.2706:

This is misusing the power being a programmer to create monopolys.

Except it’s not.

For starters, programmers have nothing to do with the economy outside of making sure the parts of the game work.

Players aren’t able to manipulate the economy the way you’re implying.

Kurrilino.2706:

And yes this kills the fun for people who actually want to play a fantasy game
because this is how reality works.
I own an ecconomy diploma and am confronted 24/7 with that kind of stuff.
My request was just to make a video game a video game not a copy of reality i try to escape from.

If you’re subjecting yourself to that, that’s not ANet’s fault. After all, you sing praises about GW, but they had an economy of buying and selling (hello Spamadan, my old friend). How did you cope then?

im not going to say the design is creating monopolies or whatever.

But you saying designers have nothing to do with the economy makes no sense.
designers decide almost everything about teh economy. there are a couple of outliers, but, by and large the price of everything is based on the choices they made.

not only that but they can and have directly intervened in numerous cases.
Champion loot addition, champion loot nerf, daily limits on dungeons, Diminishing return on earnings. New ascended recipes using massive ingredients, etc.

whether its good or bad, that fine to debate, but its totally crazy to say something like the designers have nothing to with the economy.

If something decides how much natural resources you have, what technologies you have, what you can eat, how much taxes you pay. How much of any item you can produce in a time period, then they are the primary force in the economy

Illogical.6218:

If you were looking at it the right way, you wouldn’t be whining on the forums.
Chaos Gun went up 1 gold in the last week.
You have to look at the Buy Listings.
That’s the price people are willing to pay for an Item.
I could buy out all chaos guns in the TP and sell 1 for 9000 Gold.
Does that give the weapon 9000 gold value in the market? of course not.

except for the fact that the buy order have gone up, and they have actually sold to sell orders as well.

also, the buy order doesnt tell you what price they are being bought at, it tells you what is left. just like a sell order doesnt mean its being sold, a buy order doesnt mean its getting bought at the price.

unfortunately we can only guess at either statistic, but if you were looking at the data, you would probably look for when the sell order goes up (i means a sell order may have sold, or when the buy order goes down (it means someone may have had their order filled)

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

That said, my claim is not really that precursors are being “manipulated” merely that there are times when it makes economic sense, to try to buy out the supply, or list them at high prices. regardless to anything else, we can say that the move is correlated to an increase in the average sale value since the event. Even not counting those that sold previously, the value is currently at 100 gold more than before. And for the short term investors, they saw increases of 200-400 gold.

Then the situation is no different than other recent happenings, where items such as unidentified dyes, runes, various crafting materials and such went up in price (often doubling or tripling or more) and then fell abruptly when there was, um, “irrational exuberance” and speculation following announced changes to the game. The main difference being that while individual units were worth more, the actual sale value of Dusk went up only 40% to 50% instead of several 100%.

That is, people got excited about the potential of the market and overreacted, a few people made some money and a lot of people got burned.

Well, at least your stepping back from your conspiracy theories from the other day. Good progress towards learning what really happened.

Conspiracy just means that people were acting to achieve a certain goal, you believe it was just a natural phenomenon, i believe people put it into play with intent to profit.

its like global warming, it can be proven that the average temperature of the earth is increasing, some people beleive it is natural, and others believe it is man made.

ExTribble.7108:

Jekkt.6045:

but when suddenly all the precursors disappear in a short time and in a price range from 700-1000g just to get relisted for 1400g it is clearly market manipulation.

It’s an attempt at market manipulation. 99% of these attempts fail because the moment new precursors enter the market (which is much faster than you probably realize) they start to drive the price back to its equilibrium by selling to buy orders, or listing at a lower price to undercut the person selling at a steep price. I don’t know of a single case where someone “manipulated” the precursor market and profited after taking into account listing and sale fees.

its not really manipulation, but someone is apparetly going around pushing most precursor markets, it has happened to too many precursors recently to be a coincidence.

as far as profit? i would assume someone is profiting in some way

APW.1569:

Jekkt.6045:

the market has been manipulated believe it or not. first dusk to 2000, then the hunter to ~1400 and now chaos gun to 1500.

If by “manipulated” you mean interacted with and working as intended, then yes.

yes working as intended sometimes means, people get screwed.

i think what people mean to say, though they dont really realize it is.

I think precursor prices are too high

Saying precursors are being manipulated, is a bit of a different arguement. Yes players will try to manipulate the market, what market capitilism suggests, is that they will only succeed up to the value of the item.

So essentially, peoples complaints are that precursors are falling out of reach, that their value is quickly becoming unattainable, they need to try not to associate that with controlling the market completely. They can only nudge or try to lead the market, they dont actually “control” it.

APW.1569:

phys.7689:

Ensign.2189:

I thought that even unranked economics departments would teach time series analysis. Prices get volatile after a shock, and individual data points during that period of volatility tell you next to nothing about where prices will stabilize.

Especially if you’re cherry picking the highs and lows of the fluctuations. Yes, you found someone making a mistake in a low information period and blowing themselves up. It’s happened thousands of times before and this won’t be the last. Why think it’s more than that?

i understand what you are saying, but what exactly is the endpoint of what you are saying?
or the main idea?

this is a shock period and everything is unknown? i dont know if people were really disagreeing with that.

The main point is that its basic market forces at work here and not a few rich people messing with the market.

What happened to Dusk since patch is more related to raised demand due to changes made to Eternity and and a price spike to mithril which raised the average forging costs of dusk.

The market for a precursor has a way too high volume and supply cant be manipulated efficiently by anyone or any group to have an impact higher than general demand and supply from the average player base.

I dont think the value of the item can go past the what the market will bear, but that is kind of impossible for it to do so, what the market will bear is defined as what it sells at.

I do think people can alter prices in the short term via buying selling etc, in times of shock though. Not that that is wrong, but it is something they are known to do, and will do, and until the dust settles(in fact it is the service JS believes they provide, faster equilibrium), no one knows who is genius and who is fool. I think the key for a lot of people, is this is only something that extremely rich people can even play at. So they in general feel helpless, because the dude with 800 or even 1000 doesnt have much say in the high end precursor game. But this is according to game design.

DaveGan.8065:

phys.7689:

That said, my claim is not really that precursors are being “manipulated” merely that there are times when it makes economic sense, to try to buy out the supply, or list them at high prices.

Precursor speculation creates more net loss than gain. The only difference is that the gains and losses are not uniform. A lot of people gain a bit as the speculation goes on, and then a few people (sometimes also the people who gained a bit) lose a lot when it crashes.

Nobody knows when the bubble will burst, so it’s a high risk, medium reward venture.

Hmm, i think its a high stakes game, but i think some people play it well, and turn a pretty decent profit.

probably not as much and definately not as stable as some other ventures, but those really stable ventures generally take a lot more time, or a lot more work to make the same gold.

Im very certain that constantly reinvesting in smaller ventures repeatedly will grow you money a lot faster (due to geometric growth), but you have to be constantly monitoring, redjusting, find new markets, or possibly just buying and listing a ton of items. That work has a real cost in time and effort that you consider when you consider profit.

also every market has instabilities, and you can get caught out there. something you at one time could do 20 times a day, sometimes something happens, and for whatever reason takes a week to bear fruit. the advantage is thats less money tied up if that happens, but that is only a consideration if you dont have tons of money to tie up.

What the

op is really talking about isnt so much prestige items, its limited edition items. Its kind of a different arguement. Af first i thought he was talking about prestige, but that appears not to be the case.

So really the discussion is, should some items be limited time only, or should everything be re releaseable.

i think that some ltd stuff wouldnt be bad, at the very least for re releases, they should change some details, so that the ltd stuff is still ltd.
color changes on weapons or backpacks would probably suffice. Of course that would add more wardrobe entries, but ehh whatevs

Ensign.2189:

I thought that even unranked economics departments would teach time series analysis. Prices get volatile after a shock, and individual data points during that period of volatility tell you next to nothing about where prices will stabilize.

Especially if you’re cherry picking the highs and lows of the fluctuations. Yes, you found someone making a mistake in a low information period and blowing themselves up. It’s happened thousands of times before and this won’t be the last. Why think it’s more than that?

i understand what you are saying, but what exactly is the endpoint of what you are saying?
or the main idea?

this is a shock period and everything is unknown? i dont know if people were really disagreeing with that.

DaveGan.8065:

i see people like to disagree with me, and pay little attention to what i am actually saying.

You’re speaking to people who make their profit from the inefficiencies of the market. Some of them have a conflict of interest in discussing more efficiency/velocity in the market, and others are blinded by their position in the current status quo.

There have been plenty of people whose replies to you have been less educational than no reply, but understand that some of them are also being rationally irrational. I think Wanze himself has been pretty fair.

In addition, there has been valid skepticism of profitable precursor manipulation, as there are many more safe and profitable ways of investing that 1000-2000g. People have not been arguing that precursors aren’t being manipulated; they’re mostly saying that it’s generally not profitable and they wouldn’t touch it with a 30 ft pole themselves.

yeah i edited out that line because, it wont really solve anything for me to say that.

That said, my claim is not really that precursors are being “manipulated” merely that there are times when it makes economic sense, to try to buy out the supply, or list them at high prices. regardless to anything else, we can say that the move is correlated to an increase in the average sale value since the event. Even not counting those that sold previously, the value is currently at 100 gold more than before. And for the short term investors, they saw increases of 200-400 gold.

as for other means of investing, as i said, yes there are other means, but the richer you get, the more different investments you need, because each investment has a limit to how much of it you can do at a time.

Ensign.2189:

This isn’t actually all that surprising. Precursors basically fall into two buckets – those that are worth forging explicitly (greatswords, daggers, and staves, historically; swords more recently), which have prices that are tied intimately to T5 materials, and those that are not, which reach an equilibrium price less than the cap for the supply from drops and random forging alone.

With the wardrobe introduction we saw the demand for legendaries (and precursors) increase dramatically, with the effect even larger for one handed legendaries that can be dual wielded – Spark surged ahead of the others for a time, and diverting T5 materials to forge more Sparks drove the price ceiling of precursors up across the board.

Chaos Gun is also one handed and dual wieldable, but historically has not been near the cap where you’d want to forge it. It would not surprise me at all to hear that demand for Quip has increased dramatically now that you can dual wield it cheaply via the wardrobe. If the natural supply from drops and random forges cannot keep up with that demand spike, the price will naturally be driven up to the cap – which is where it is now.

You can see the pattern on the TP – when the number up for sale gets low, the price spikes, which sucks some more out of people’s storage and onto the TP, halting the rise – but if fundamentals really have changed and demand is still higher than the background supply at that price, it’ll get chewed through and the process will repeat itself. Apparently, in the case of Chaos Gun, demand is pushing it all the way to the soft cap where throwing rare pistols into the forge makes sense.

which is somewhat interesting because it almost creates self fulfilling prophecies

The more valuable precursors in general become, the more t5 resources they use up, which increases the cost of t5 materials, which increases the costs of precursors.

So i guess the key is how big the demand for precursors overall becomes.

That said, it also means, if they add new precursors, and they can be attained by the same means, you would be looking at a huge increase in price for all precursors and t5 mats.

But since they would probably introduce that with an alternate method, it might not be so bad, depending on the method.

yeah this is pretty accurate. I think the UI and information provided could be updated, but UI work seems a valuable resource for all the development teams.

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

Short story
large initial investment: only matters if you dont have massie gold
Other hustles: yes and one may already invested in them to their limits and looking for more things to invest in.
Dusk has consistently gone up over time at a faster rate than inflation, which means it would be better to turn your money into dusks than keep it as gold.

Dusk went down the last couple of days, does that mean, we actually had deflation at a higher rate in the last couple of days?

I think it would be interesting for alot of people, to know how you determine inflation/deflation in game without having any data about how much gold per day is generated and sunk in and out of the game to make such claims.

i said at a faster rate than inflation, I specifically didnt say that dusk was inflation because people have a lot of contention with that word

maybe i wasnt clear
dusks price goes up faster than the the inflation of gold in general.

IE say moneys value has had minimal inflation in a year, say 1%(just a random value for purpose of illustration) dusk has doubled in price. that means its better to turn any money that is not being used to make more money into items like dusk, or commodities.

If you want to say things havent inflated, thats fine, but it actually makes dusk an even better investment.

Unless YOU are saying dusks inflation represents inflation in general, and money is essentially half as valuable as before, but thats not what I was saying anyhow.

Wanze.8410:

I think one reason, why the price went up after last patch, we didnt even consider yet and that is the price of mithril and elder wood.

To craft a rare lvl 80 greatsword, roughly 40% of the crafting costs are needed for those two ressources. And due to the exchange for supply boxes, mithril experienced a price spike of 50-75% right after the patch.

If I was a professional precursor forger, i would have taken a break right after the patch or list my dusk at a higher price to cover the additional crafting/forge costs.

whats the cause of that anyhow?
i mean even with a supply box, shouldnt people use the cheapest material available?
considering taxes of course

yea, its actually useful information when done correctly, but it also looks negative, and would be fairly unorganized if they allowed it.

This thread will probably be closed tommorow though, they dont investigate deeply to decide a threads worth, they follow the rules first and foremost.

unless anet told them to be a little slower because they actually want some of this feedback now.

Im basing this on no information, but i believe that anet is probably getting a lot less people signing on for substantial time on a regular basis right now. *from NA/EU so this info is probably pretty relevant.

i think the dissatisfaction with GW2 right now is for a lot of reasons, none of which are not fixable. however it will probably be a lot of work, and time is an issue.

Honestly im thinking anet has another project, and this one may be suffering for it

Wanze.8410:

illo.5106:

linuxotaku.4731:

This only works when there’s sufficient demand above 700-800g (if not, those trying to manipulate the price will lose more than they make).

There’ll be always demand, because it’s a pre and due to the often unfair progress of getting it. And you will always find someone willing to pay the actual price, so they keep the bidding price getting up and on the raised level. Maybe those who are buying out of fear that it can be even more expensive next week – or those, who simply don’t care if it’s 100 G more or less.

linuxotaku.4731:

This particular example — whether it was one or several trying to flip Dusks — looks like more evidence that manipulating markets isn’t an easy way to make money.

Making up to 1000G+ only with this ONE niche (Dusk) is pretty easy in my eyes – just think, how much time and effort it costs to get this amount of gold the “common” way.

In order to make 1000g+ profit just with Dusk, you need 10000g+ initial investment in the first place. If you consider the high initial investment, there are better ones out there, that make you faster profit.

real estate can work the same way irl, and yet it is a pretty common investment. 10% interest is 10% the initial investment only matters when you are poor.

As for smaller investments, they are really good, but they are short term and have a low limit in the market.
for example say you have a crafting recipe that makes 1 gold with a 3 gold investment, or 33% profit, seems great, till you realize manufacturing more than 5 a day begins to flood the market, doing more than 10, crashes it completely. so that limits you at around 5 gold a day, then you have to find a new hustle. so on, and so forth.

dusk is also a limited market, but each sale is a lot more huge, and unlike the crafted mats, so far dusk has always gone up, eventually.

Short story
large initial investment: only matters if you dont have massie gold
Other hustles: yes and one may already invested in them to their limits and looking for more things to invest in.
Dusk has consistently gone up over time at a faster rate than inflation, which means it would be better to turn your money into dusks than keep it as gold.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

JS shares the information he chooses to share, for whenever it strikes his fancy, the amount of information he gives is probably not even .01% of the amount of information he could get, or monitors. Also, just because something happens doesnt mean he sees it as a problem.

He is under no obligation to give out any info, and what he has access to is mostly the property of Anet, it’s not his decision to share it or not. He is easily the most open and honest of the Devs from what I’ve seen, who backs up what he says with numbers whenever possible. Even when it’s easier just to ignore the complaints.

You have nothing to back up your accusations but fantasies.

i have made no accusations, and i also said exactly the same thing you said. JS shares what he wishes to share, nothing more nothing less. I also said that any info he shares is powerful information, and thus is probably given rarely.

Why do you always get so combative, i am not trying to battle you here, I am not accusing anyone of anythings. Everything we discuss here is unproven, your beliefs are just as unproven as mines. We can only observe the data on gwspidy, and the TP, and make predictions and guesses.

They are all predictions and guesses.

also as far as the super anti conspiracy thing.
conspiracies are common, and expected, in fact consipiracies and collusion are highly likely to occur. Collusion or conspiracies, are not the easter bunny, they are a common occurence. If Gw2 somehow has none, they would be the exception, not the rule. In fact i have already told you i know for a fact that GW2 cabals exist. How effective they are is another matter i have no data on.

also keep in mind what you may think is impossible and unlikely a crazy conspiracy, is sometimes the truth.
a couple years ago if i told people here that the government was spending millions and billions of dollars gathering every useless pointless email/im/net traffic into a mass data, and combing through it with more expensive man hours, and algorithms, and using it identify and act against people they deem dangerous, people would have told me i was a nut job.

Just because you cant prove something doesnt mean its false, or unreasonable, it just means you cant prove it. A great number of things you deal with in life, you will never prove, or dont have the ability to prove, it doesnt mean none of it exists.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

It is truely hard to say if this is the case, but based on the system, once i saw 3 dusks, this was what i expected would happen soon, the big surprise was how ballsy the intial guys were. And then somebody profitted big, if this is the new market value, it would have taken like 1-2 weeks to slowly raise to 1500-1600, if it isnt the new market value, some people were able to get a value that wouldnt have happened for months.

If it were the actions of three individuals working together, why didn’t they list one Dusk at 2k and the other two at lower prices so they look like a deal and sold quickly? What’s the point in throwing away three listing fees for something that isn’t going to sell for weeks or months, if ever?

Also, as the prices dropped back down to normal, flippers buying Dusk at 1200 to flip end up holding items they paid too much for, when the new price settles at 1250 they lose money after listing fees.

These are not the actions of a smart and well-organized group, unless their intent was to waste a lot of time and money.

it is possible they only listed 1 at 2k , and the other ones were people just following his lead with an undercut, its also possible that they decided 3 is more plausible as a baseline for the high price. while one is a freak occurence, if 3/4 are priced at 2k, now it seems that may be a real price.

even now the market is uncertain, the real price is still somewhat up for grabs. supply is staying pretty low

also note, they have not been pulled, the loss is only 100g, if they were quick buck bad gamblers, its likely that at least 1 or 2 would have pulled out.

tolunart.2095:

Except that twice now JS has confirmed that nearly every Dusk being sold is coming from a different individual. There is no one with 20 Dusks sitting in his inventory, controlling the prices by listing one at an unreasonably high price and undercutting himself to sell a dozen.

it would be a syndicate, this would mean a group of people working together, IE it doesnt have to be the same dude

also, 4 of the ones sold were not unique, and this info was still pretty early in the event. who knows what the data would look like now.

JS shares the information he chooses to share, for whenever it strikes his fancy, the amount of information he gives is probably not even .01% of the amount of information he could get, or monitors. Also, just because something happens doesnt mean he sees it as a problem.

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.

I still wonder how you can believe that it was a bunch of people working together.
The 3 remaining dusks didnt all sell at once, it actually took 5 hours (from 1pm to 6 pm on may 21st) for them to vanish from the tp.

i have no idea if the last ones were bought out as a scheme, i more think the setting of the new price was a conscious decsion.

but as far as syndicates go, they generally try to hide their actions, even if the actions are legal. Not saying this is what happened in this case, truth is, if dusk is down to a supply of 3, its a pretty good sign that its selling faster than its being supplied, and its may be an item whose value will increase.

but the setting of the new price is different, any time you set a new price you are sort of defining the market, especially in a market whose item value is extremely hard to determine.
If i had 1 dusk, i wouldnt want to be the first guy to set the price, because its almost guaranteed to get undercut
if i had 10 or 20, i might try to push the value, because i can still profit if people try to meet in the middle of old and new price, which is what happened the last two times the supply disappeared

when they set it at 1500, from 900 it ended up meeting around 1200-1100. when they set it at 2000 from 1100 it ended up meating at 1400-1600.

so far it seems to follow this pattern.

The same pattern of listings could have come from individual sellers that didnt work as a group.

i am not stating i am certain, I am stating it is a valid possibility. Many things happen in large systems, some of it is by “fate” or the natural tendencies of the system, and some of it is by design.

It is truely hard to say if this is the case, but based on the system, once i saw 3 dusks, this was what i expected would happen soon, the big surprise was how ballsy the intial guys were. And then somebody profitted big, if this is the new market value, it would have taken like 1-2 weeks to slowly raise to 1500-1600, if it isnt the new market value, some people were able to get a value that wouldnt have happened for months.

So perhaps people were lucky following a ballsy fool, or perhaps the ballsy fools were making a calculated move.

Truth is we will never know. JS could probably pull some data that would give him a better idea of the truth, but i highly doubt he would share it with us. Information of any sort is power

tolunart.2095:

Conspiracy theories… yawn. This is not how you petition for membership in Tinfoil [HATS].

Someone made some cash flipping dyes and crafting mats at the right time, and thought he was a TP Mastermind. So he got greedy, tried to corner the Dusk market, and all that happened was he created opportunities for flippers to sell Dusks to people who are too impatient to research the price history.

Not that JS is going to say something either way, but if he wanted to prove/disprove your cartel theory, he could look up the remaining Dusks and tell us whether the top 4 are from the same seller or two+ individuals, as well as confirming whether any of those sellers also sold the lower priced Dusks.

Because he has, like, real data and not just assumptions and speculations to work with. If something shady was going on, he would know about it, and can take action against it.

My guess is that it’s one or two individuals (not sure when the fourth Dusk was listed at 2k, I only saw three the other day), and that they invested their whole nest egg into failed TP manipulations.

yes but JS would not want to confirm that people have this type of power, even if he wanted to do something about it. (we dont know that he does, because at the end of the day it only works if the market can bear the cost)

also if you are using a cartel, you would use multiple unique users. I know for a fact that some groups have played around with precursors. (by groups i mean multiple people working together, and having different people sell and buy things) however, that was sometime ago, and just because they were trying it does not mean it was successful, i also dont know if it was short term or long term goals.

So essentially i know these people exist, and make attempts, i dont know if they succeed, or how often they try.

however, i am not smarter than everyone else, no idea is orginal, chances are if one can see a pattern then other people can as well, or they soon will. The amount of people hustling the TP is extremely large, they will find any way to profit, for that is the goal of their gameplay.

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.

I still wonder how you can believe that it was a bunch of people working together.
The 3 remaining dusks didnt all sell at once, it actually took 5 hours (from 1pm to 6 pm on may 21st) for them to vanish from the tp.

i have no idea if the last ones were bought out as a scheme, i more think the setting of the new price was a conscious decsion.

but as far as syndicates go, they generally try to hide their actions, even if the actions are legal. Not saying this is what happened in this case, truth is, if dusk is down to a supply of 3, its a pretty good sign that its selling faster than its being supplied, and its may be an item whose value will increase.

but the setting of the new price is different, any time you set a new price you are sort of defining the market, especially in a market whose item value is extremely hard to determine.
If i had 1 dusk, i wouldnt want to be the first guy to set the price, because its almost guaranteed to get undercut
if i had 10 or 20, i might try to push the value, because i can still profit if people try to meet in the middle of old and new price, which is what happened the last two times the supply disappeared

when they set it at 1500, from 900 it ended up meeting around 1200-1100. when they set it at 2000 from 1100 it ended up meating at 1400-1600.

so far it seems to follow this pattern.

tolunart.2095:

Essence Snow.3194:

There is also the bit that eventually prices will creep back up and those listed at 2k will sell for that 2k. Think of all the items players have sitting for sale because there is zero carrying costs outside of OC. Atm the listing fees for those items are not realized until either the items sell or are removed.
.

Those four Dusks sitting at 2k could have been sold for 1600 immediately, then four more bought for 1200 and sold for 1500-1600 again, and repeated several times until the hype died down and things stabilized again.

So instead of making a few thousand gold, someone(s) get to watch his investments sit there collecting dust while he helps smarter players make money.

but they wouldnt have gone for 1600 gold if he didnt put the high price at 2000, If he put the price at 1600, then cutters would have went for 1300. If it wasnt for the big move, prices would have slowly adapted to demand of the course of weeks. many people would have been selling for 1200 or less because thats the most they thought they could get for it.

the 2k opened the door for profit from from flipping as well, which wasnt really an option before this, the buy and sell price was too close. Which perhaps is a sign that people would be willing to pay more.

Behellagh.1468:

Well there are 8 available

2000g
1999.9999g
1999.9998g
1999.9997g
1549g
1500g
1450.0397g
1300g

While it’s true there is no cost to keep that 2000g one on the market, the list does show another reason why prices spike when supply gets low. Over priced items get exposed.

Major Rune of the Scholar is currently around 20s. There are 5 at 4.9957g and 20 others 1g and over and another 21 over 99s. If the current supply drops in half, the price will be over 60s. All of that is already set up in the sell orders. Drop supply by 116, price triples. It’s not inflation. Maybe speculation. Maybe storage. Maybe price guesses in the early days of the TP since there was no info about what a good price would be. Who knows. But it’s there, just waiting for a run on supply.

yeah but its not just that the price is exposed, its that they sell. some one who decides to store/invest his dusk at 1000 G a couple months ago, eventually people did pay that price. So if dusk every reaches 2000, those other dusks will sell. at a 100% profit, So its not exactly a loss.

though, it is not a liquid asset.
anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.
unless it is strictly meant to be storage. but ehhh why do that when the item sold out

linuxotaku.4731:

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

If you time it right, every day you can buy 1200g worth of crafting mats and sell it for a 15% profit. It’s not all that impressive, especially considering someone tried to double the price and got burned.

8-9% is the tail end of the curve, the big money was made with all the dusks that sold for 1500+ i noticed quite a few. which is like 25% profit, which is pretty hard to get at that scale without going past the limits of that specific market.

for example i can place an order for iron ore, and due to price fluctuations, i can get it 10-15% cheaper, but in one day i wont be able to fill 1000 gold worth at 10-15% cheaper. not to mention i would have to set 400 buy orders, then set 400 sell orders, if each one takes 10 seconds that would be 132 minutes of time, doing a fairly monotonous task.

The dusks which sold around 1500 were almost certainly sold by someone other than the person who placed 3 sell orders at 2000g (at a cost of 100g/each). Have you ever tried to sell high ticket items? Undercutting yourself substantially is hard to do (psychologically) because it acknowledges that the high listings were wasted listing fees.

Yes some people made money … but all the data we have suggests that it was the people who got Dusk drops when someone tried to manipulate the market. Chances are most of them aren’t your “TP Barons.” And there’s no debt — the people who paid 1500g had the 1500g to pay, they didn’t go into soul-crushing debt to do it.

I could liquidate various things and raise that much if I decided that I really wanted to (I do some trading, I’ve played far too much, and in the past I have transferred cash to gems to gold when I wanted something but didn’t want to grind it — still no regrets there). I’d feel dumb if I’d bought at the peak … but I wouldn’t blame anyone but myself.

ehh i dunno about that, im not the only one who has noticed when these things happen the person who sets the high price rarely sell it at that price, and this isnt ancient history, it happened within i think a month ago. Anyone who looks at history will see that the people who sell after that big price make the big money (short term anyhow, usually even the expensive ones sell eventually when the price goes)

it is possible of course someone made this big error, which then allowed a whole lot of other people to profit, but i just doubt that someone/group who made huge money would make such a shortsighted move without a plan.

tolunart.2095:

If you time it right, every day you can buy 1200g worth of crafting mats and sell it for a 15% profit. It’s not all that impressive, especially considering someone tried to double the price and got burned.

8-9% is the tail end of the curve, the big money was made with all the dusks that sold for 1500+ i noticed quite a few. which is like 25% profit, which is pretty hard to get at that scale without going past the limits of that specific market.

for example i can place an order for iron ore, and due to price fluctuations, i can get it 10-15% cheaper, but in one day i wont be able to fill 1000 gold worth at 10-15% cheaper. not to mention i would have to set 400 buy orders, then set 400 sell orders, if each one takes 10 seconds that would be 132 minutes of time, doing a fairly monotonous task.

tolunart.2095:

Behellagh.1468:

And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.

Obviously, the cartel wants to distract players before making the minimum price 2500g next week.

100 gold increase in one week is pretty big dif. About 8-9%
That’s actually really sizable

tolunart.2095:

Beyond that, random distribution of loot has its place, and is a tradition going back to the first RPG, Dungeons and Dragons. It provides incentive to explore the world and try different things, rather than simply stand on a hill and kill Monster X over and over until you collect enough gold and loot to satisfy your goals.

For example, if I need 100 basilisk fangs to complete the Sword of Awesomeness, and every basilisk I kill drops a fang, then all I have to do is go to where they spawn and keep killing basilisks until I get enough fangs.

But if I need 100 glowing rubies, which is a rare drop from many different creatures, I have a choice of regions to explore in order to find enemies that drop them, and I am motivated to continue exploring and killing enemies because I can find the rubies faster that way than waiting for the same six creatures to respawn.

I honestly don’t understand most of the complaints people have about this game. Without kill-stealing, node-stealing, quest-stealing, with open world events and no loot rolls, I’ve had a better experience in this game than any other MMO. Is it really that wonderful to spend one night every week for months chasing after a rare drop from a raid boss, only to lose the roll and see someone else walk away with your prize?

Yeah the problem using your example would ve if 60% of the supply of basilisk fangs were gotten by random from any monster/treasure in the game.

Then the value isn’t determiNed by people who purposely supply basilisk fang, but by all the people who got it randomly.

As for salvaging, most of those drops exist to be salvaged, and its random when that drops, for example a lot of mithril is created from random loot drops whose main purpose is to be salvaged

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

i think the economy overall would be better if more items were mostly provided by intention rather than random chance

Legendaries are made through the MF, they don’t drop randomly.

Ascended gear is crafted or can be bought from a vendor, in addition to random drops. The materials needed to craft are collected from specific activities and crafted.

Armor and weapons in various stat combinations can be crafted, from fine quality through exotic (and ascended, as mentioned).

Food, dyes, trinkets and other supplemental items can be crafted, most of these items are made this way rather than found through random drops.

High-demand weapon and armor skins are bought from a vendor, obtained as LS rewards, crafted, etc. Some are random drops, but most are not. Some are no longer obtainable but can be brought back at any time, as the current LS event shows.

Crafting materials are harvested, or salvaged. They can also come from bags but do not drop randomly by themselves.

What can only be found randomly? Vendor trash, for one thing, but its only purpose is to sell for a bit of coin. Various qualities of gear drop randomly, but also can be crafted or bought from a vendor. Rares and exotics drop often enough that there is a decent supply on the TP.

What other special, high demand items only appear in the game randomly? Everything I have any use for can be crafted or found elsewhere, I am not held at the mercy of RNG. Did I miss something, because I can’t think of anything else.

I was talking about the matket. Ascended ends up account bound.
Precusors as I said are intentionally created.
Most other high demand items are not primarily created by intent.
Basic materials primarily from drops or salavge from.drops
Crafting mats primarily from loot bags/chests teir 5s and 6
Lodestonea from champ bags and boss chests
Ecto from rare drops which primarily from random
Sigils and runes primarily from random drops or forge

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

anyhow, no one has proven a cartel exists, but no one has disproven it either.

No one has proven Santa Claus exists, but no one has disproven it either.

yeah logically what you said makes sense, but you are applying it illogically.

the correct application of something you can neither prove nor disprove is to give an unknown value. Saying its unknown, so its valid i place its value at false, because i like it as false, is a false application of the logic.

even for santa claus.

Tentonhammr.7849:

illo.5106:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

My fellow players – Welcome to the free market!

It’s no free market, ‘cause the price for all high priced items are being manipulated by gold sellers and TP guilds (since TP is the easiest way to make money). Even in a “free market”, you’d call this a cartel.

But: As long as someone wants to pay that much gold for a pre, it’s his/her decision. If you don’t want to, then don’t do it.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Dusk-2000g/first#post4048636

58 unique buyers. 54 unique sellers. So manipulation. Much wow.

if you want to disprove a cartel theory,
the amount of unique sellers is not relevant, because they are a cartel
Also, you should look at your data, the data he gave is actually showing 39/60 hours of information from before dusk was put up at 2000.

anyhow, no one has proven a cartel exists, but no one has disproven it either.

One advantage i will say with precursors, since they are purposefully manufactured, (via forge) high demand can generate greater to supply to match it. which helps decrease the strength of anyone trying to corner the market, and equalize the price. only problem is its kind of a gamble to get in the game.

i think the economy overall would be better if more items were mostly provided by intention rather than random chance

Sartharina.3542:

What new game is ArenaNet working on? NCsoft is the publisher, but not developer or server-operator. Anet needs to keep their game as profitable as possible to not get the entire studio cut by NCsoft to make room for a new development team.

actually i think they are working on a new game.
A lot of big names arent actively working on GW2 but they apparently still work at anet. a while back there was some concept art for a game that could not be gw2 on the net. it would also explain their constant struggle for resources, even though they clearly have people who’s job it is.

And gw2, at least last quarter wasnt doing that badly, although i feel like they may have lost a bit of NA/EU money they now increased royalties.
sooo they probably arent in crisis, yet, and they probably are working on something else.

Dark Catalyst.1028:

I would like to see these two things in game. By allowing players like me use these tools, you are making it possible for us to “play how we want”. What’s wrong with being able to control the quality of player that I let into my party?

I would also like to see more instanced content.

why not just ask them. How many people would lie really?

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

yes the point is that they will be sold slower and more expensive to the higher earner people, and new higher earner people will replace them.

Yes, I know. Sadly, I’ll never get my Ferrari, because there’s always someone richer than me who wants it. But someday I’m going to be all over that Clearance Sale.

Oh, yes, precursors. This is intentional. Anet already knows, and they’re ok with it.

i dont know if they are ok with it, but regardless my point was more to the effect that, i dont think prices are going to go down much until a design change happens, IE i doubt you ll be getting a dusk for 1k until something changes at the anet design side.

APW.1569:

phys.7689:

Jimaruto.5389:

phys.7689:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

I agree with you. And it is up to Anet if they want a precursor weapon (not a Legendary) to have a value of this high too. Anet knew, I believe, that those changes they’ve made at legendaries (account-bound, their skin can be applied many times, few cosmetic changes in eternity in last patch) would make precursors’ price climb to higher levels. But the difficult part for Anet was not to realise that precursors’ price will increase, but at which level they would go exactly! If Anet will be happy with the new “balanced point-price”, I guess they won’t make a change. If not, I guess they will have to take measures (example: other ways of acquiring precursor weapons).

I want to say something more. Buyers agreeing buying precursor weapons at higher prices (balanced point) doesn’t mean that their numbers stay the same. Will the number of buyers be the same again when precursor’s prices raise again (even when dawn and dusks are bought at that price)? Or will some quit game and bored with it? I think this matter should be considered by Anet. Achieving always a higher “balanced point” in price market doesn’t mean it is always the best for Anet’s interests.

Anet wont lose many people who buy precursors at this price, they have money to spare, or just want what they want enough to get it. They may lose other people who cant afford the items though, but thats probably pretty hard to track.

If people leave the game because they cant afford a precursor or legendary, thats hardly a loss for Anet. They gave them the opportunity to buy gold with gems. If people dont want to spend any money, even though they want a legendary so bad, an therefore leave the game, Anet doesnt lose anything.

big mistake assuming that people who dont want to buy a legendary are not valuable customers.
1500 gold is like 270 dollars, while they get some people like that it would be foolish to tell everyone not willing to pay 270 dollars for one item to leave your store.

not to mention they have a lot of paying customers who would be willing to buy content, if the game seems fair to them. There are many ways to monetize, and keeping people engaged and around invariably leads to money.
take a look at google, twitch, faceboook everyone actively playing and satisfied is adding value to the product.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

while it is true it lowered demand from multiple legendary buyers, if it increased the demand so that a higher % of users are interested in the item, then it wont reduce cost very swiftly. in fact it could still be in the higher value situation.

When I say long term, think December/January, not June/July. With respect to Dusk, I think the spike is shorter term and prices will rejoin the rest of the precursors when the excitement over Eternity dies down.

remember new players are born every minute and precursors seem to be sold at a rate of 1 per hour. it will be a long time before 1 per hour reaches the bottom 60% of earning populations available cash.

note that inspite of everything precursors have continued to go up in value from game start till now. i dont really think a large % of the precursors sold were duplicates.

That will never happen, because as I said before, the average player was never meant to have a Legendary weapon. If they were, you would be able to buy them from the gem store and Anet would be pulling in tons of cash for them.

I mean, think about it. They create the most impressive and elaborate weapon skins in the game, add extra effects like footsteps and an aura, then lock them away behind 100s of hours of grinding. If they wanted anyone to have access to them, putting them in the Black Lion Chests or selling them directly like Rox’s Quiver and such would double their gem sales overnight.

yes the point is that they will be sold slower and more expensive to the higher earner people, and new higher earner people will replace them.

note, that the wardrobe has been in effect for a month, and the prices are still going up. This isnt isolated to dawn/dusk eternity. Zap has zero for sale, spark is 1600 legend is up to 1250.
while dawn/dusk are showing immense growth right now, high value precursors are still rising in price on their own. which suggests the rich are still competing for precursors paying more each day, this suggests arent at the turning point of this demand curve yet.

Jimaruto.5389:

phys.7689:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

I agree with you. And it is up to Anet if they want a precursor weapon (not a Legendary) to have a value of this high too. Anet knew, I believe, that those changes they’ve made at legendaries (account-bound, their skin can be applied many times, few cosmetic changes in eternity in last patch) would make precursors’ price climb to higher levels. But the difficult part for Anet was not to realise that precursors’ price will increase, but at which level they would go exactly! If Anet will be happy with the new “balanced point-price”, I guess they won’t make a change. If not, I guess they will have to take measures (example: other ways of acquiring precursor weapons).

I want to say something more. Buyers agreeing buying precursor weapons at higher prices (balanced point) doesn’t mean that their numbers stay the same. Will the number of buyers be the same again when precursor’s prices raise again (even when dawn and dusks are bought at that price)? Or will some quit game and bored with it? I think this matter should be considered by Anet. Achieving always a higher “balanced point” in price market doesn’t mean it is always the best for Anet’s interests.

Anet wont lose many people who buy precursors at this price, they have money to spare, or just want what they want enough to get it. They may lose other people who cant afford the items though, but thats probably pretty hard to track.

if anet was concerned about anything, i think it would be the increasing cost of precursors over time relative to earning potential.

interestingly enough, sources of income for normal players are down, and precursors prices rise. Its basically cementing precursors as a rich mans item. its not like a house, which is a long term goal, many middle class people attain, its something that dances out of their reach.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

This will probably happen for any item where the difference between buy/sell prices is greater than 15%. Flippers will compete with each other to place buy orders that they can make a profit on, but once that profit disappears they’ll stop placing orders.

yeah but a decent amount of precursors are also selling to sell orders right now. there have been a number of 1400-1580 precursors sold in the last 18 hours, this suggests that the sell order price isnt a deterrent to the intended market. while some people get deals at 1240ish gold, buyers are willing to pay more. and sellers arent meeting their buy orders as fast as they d like.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

the only thing that will probably slow or reduce the price of precursors is greater supply, or a precursor hunt.
Oh and new legendaries.

so essentially, if they ever actually finish the precursor hunt, and release new legendaries, these will go down

however as far new legendaries are concerned, they will be super expensive and unattainable for some time.

Also, wardrobe. Legendaries are in higher demand because people want to unlock the skins and use them on multiple toons. But once you unlock the skins, you don’t need a second Incinerator to dual wield, or a Twilight for your warrior and your mesmer, so in the long term, prices should stabilize or go down.

It’s the same with Eternity, it’s “hot” right now because they updated it, but once the impatient “I need my shiny nao!” crowd is satisfied, there will be much less demand for Dusk/Dawn.

I’m hoping that they learned from experience and any new precursors/Legendary gear are account bound and cannot be traded. The system looks good on paper, but it’s more trouble than it’s worth.

while it is true it lowered demand from multiple legendary buyers, if it increased the demand so that a higher % of users are interested in the item, then it wont reduce cost very swiftly. in fact it could still be in the higher value situation.

remember new players are born every minute and precursors seem to be sold at a rate of 1 per hour. it will be a long time before 1 per hour reaches the bottom 60% of earning populations available cash.

note that inspite of everything precursors have continued to go up in value from game start till now. i dont really think a large % of the precursors sold were duplicates.

Kimehcol.8742:

for anyone seeking to make a legendary weapon. sell all your stuff and buy now. 2000G is a very cheap price to consider because in another month or so, they may end up being 5000G. about 2 months ago my friend was complaining about how much dusk was (720G) and then I told him how cheap it was compared to 1kG if he delay it another month. now he really cant buy it because he cant farm fast enough. I give it another month or 2 before it reach 3kG+ (at least).

This spike may have been caused by the new Eternity change. the price of Eternity has also went up drastically. (at time of post: 4600G) but then again the price of every other precursors also went up.

the only thing that will probably slow or reduce the price of precursors is greater supply, or a precursor hunt.
Oh and new legendaries.

so essentially, if they ever actually finish the precursor hunt, and release new legendaries, these will go down

however as far new legendaries are concerned, they will be super expensive and unattainable for some time.

Lostyus.4250:

Lazuli.2098:

…
If their main reason for this new system is so they can get more money from players buying their traits then they will probably not come out and say so. They’d give some nonsensical reason like they did – to encourage build diversity. This new system does the opposite so either they don’t know what they’re doing or they’re lying.

Exactly.

To me it just seems like they have their Asian market now, so they’re not bothered about what happens. Or as someone else said on this forum, they’re trying to destroy the game to make room on their servers for their new game.

Yeah that may sound far fetched, but I’m finding it very hard to understand why they have made such massive, game altering changes, that seem to have damaged the game so much.

i think they redesigned the game for the asian market, and keeping in mind some of the complaints people had, however. Then they tried to unify the game a bit more so they dont have to redevelop constantly.

as far as listening to the complaints, they kind of went in a drastic version of the direction, and put an end game progression plan into place for regular leveling. If they were going to make traits come with challenges, it should have been solo oriented, and trait specific.
but really the system would be better placed for high end new skills. But even then i think it should be more tailor made to the skills it would unlock.

i know they like keeping players together, but some things are personal, and if they had to do it, they could have made helping another person get their special skills give a portion of what the alternative means of achieving the skill is.
lets say its gold and skill points, then helping a player get em, gives you a portion towards that, say it was a 2 silver 2 skillpoint unlock, you get .5 silver and one skillpoint for helping.