Guild Wars 2

tolunart.2095:

It’s not a random sample. Posters saying this are not server hopping, surveying random users and collecting results, they’re talking about friends, guildies, comments in general chat… and most of the data is useless because it’s false.

Anecdotal evidence is a lot different than random sampling, which implies some sort of method. Anecdotal, by definition is personal experience/accounts, conversations, map chat, hearsay and rumors. Yes, it will have more skew and a higher margin of error, but it does not make it completely wrong. I know from my own experience I can tell there is something wrong with the RNG, the last time I did a large MF run, I did about 20 combinations (Crafted rares) and received 7 exotics…

Dire Orrian Staff of Rage
Dire Orrian Staff of Rage
Dire Orrian Staff of Rage
Shaman’s Etched Batch of Rage
Rampager’s Pearl Quarterstaff (No upgrade)
Carrion Pearl Quarterstaff (No upgrade)
Valkyrie Pearl Quarterstaff (No upgrade)

So, 3 identical dire orrian staves of rage, 3 pearl quarterstaffs with no upgrades, 4 staves with superior sigil of rage. This from ~20 tries. I’ve experience similar issues with the forge on other occasions as well, but this one I had documented due to the extreme lack of randomness in the drops. If this is considered random…it’s broken.

Now, I’ll give you that with RNG it’s possible that this situation could happen, however unlikely, even multiple times, but I’ve also seen this pattern many times out in PvE. It used to be that I rarely got rare drops from anything, perhaps one every few weeks, but when I did, it was very often (More than 50% of the time) followed by a second rare within minutes and that second rare most often (Perhaps 75% of the time or higher) is from the same group, so both berserker or carrion, or both with the same upgrade, for example. I once had it where very similar rares dropped 3 times within minutes of each other. I’ve had this situation happen well over 10 times since the November 2012 loot nerfs (When this problem surfaced for me). Like I said, until recent changes, I might have gotten rare items one every few weeks. Once, I had had the exact same rare weapon drop twice within minutes of each other, one from the Jormag chest and one a few minutes later from some random mob near Jormag. When you can reliably predict the outcome a high percentage of the time, it’s not truly random.

This said, it seems to be better now for open world PvE, perhaps since the megaserver went live and I have not see this happen since. I’ve not really tried the forge with a large number of combos since they made the changes to the rewards table. I have less incentive to do it now that 4×80s are not guaranteed to return an 80 and I’ve heard (I’ve not confirmed this) that crafted rares now have less of a chance to return named exotics, such as precursors.

It doesn’t matter greatly what the “truth” is. You may be right in that the RNG is functioning fine, but what people believe is true IS the truth until proven otherwise and A LOT of people believe the RNG is not working properly and that it favors certain accounts while other accounts are deemed unlucky. It falls on ANet to prove this otherwise, only they have the information. Just saying it’s working fine is not proof that it is indeed working fine. we’re not 5-yeaar-old children who just need a little pat on the head to reassure everything is fine. They need something a little more substantial. What that is, I don’t know, but it’s on the onus of ANet to prove this.

There were huge threads surrounding these issues and general loot issues back in the winter of 2012/2013. There are a lot of accounts of persistent bad luck in these threads, and, yes, a lot of whining too, but such is the nature of these topics. Imagine GW2 general open world loot substantially worse than it is now, AND with no champion boxes AND no bonus chests for world bosses, dragons and temples, AND no megaserver to get the numbers for such events anyway. On top of that ANet was much more actively trying to prevent farming in those days. This is how bad it was. Very few people were doing world bosses, dragons and temples. The reward for effort just wasn’t there with blues and greens, when you could just farm an iron node or low level mobs and make more money 99% of the time. The mere mention of doing a champ often sparked sarcastic remarks on map chat, if anyone was there at all. It was a very hostile time and, in general, a large portion of the player base was not happy. ANet chose to ignore the issue, and tried to bury it, which was a huge mistake and a massive PR nightmare for them.

Leamas.5803:

It doesn’t matter greatly what the “truth” is. You may be right in that the RNG is functioning fine, but what people believe is true IS the truth until proven otherwise and A LOT of people believe the RNG is not working properly and that it favors certain accounts while other accounts are deemed unlucky. It falls on ANet to prove this otherwise, only they have the information. Just saying it’s working fine is not proof that it is indeed working fine. we’re not 5-yeaar-old children who just need a little pat on the head to reassure everything is fine. They need something a little more substantial. What that is, I don’t know, but it’s on the onus of ANet to prove this.

It falls on Anet to “prove” there is no problem? This is the only appropriate and necessary response to this bs:

(blank stare)

Leamas.5803:

It falls on ANet to prove this otherwise,

See below

John Smith.4610:

No.

tolunart.2095:

Leamas.5803:

It doesn’t matter greatly what the “truth” is. You may be right in that the RNG is functioning fine, but what people believe is true IS the truth until proven otherwise and A LOT of people believe the RNG is not working properly and that it favors certain accounts while other accounts are deemed unlucky. It falls on ANet to prove this otherwise, only they have the information. Just saying it’s working fine is not proof that it is indeed working fine. we’re not 5-yeaar-old children who just need a little pat on the head to reassure everything is fine. They need something a little more substantial. What that is, I don’t know, but it’s on the onus of ANet to prove this.

It falls on Anet to “prove” there is no problem? This is the only appropriate and necessary response to this bs:

(blank stare)

When people have no faith in the system, whose responsibility is it to try and regain that faith? Divine intervention? Is the appropriate response to simply ignore and wait for those people to leave? This seems to be a limited use option to me. I already left once for 7 months due to appalling loot and no response about it from ANet…granted, loot is a little better these days. I’d love to know how many players they lost in the first winter after those early loot nerfs. I know in my original guild of ~25 people, as of last November (2013), when I last looked, only one other was still playing. GW2 is not a new game anymore and with so many more MMOs coming out trying to take a piece of the pie, should there not be more transparency and focus on public relations. Should they not be trying to put to rest long standing negative rumors/believes such as the RNG being broken, such as cursed accounts? Perhaps it’s just me, but it’s my belief when you run a largely public business, public relations and player retention should be a large priority. Trying to keep players happy is a large part of retention and ultimately for the long term viability for GW2.

So, yes, it is ultimately on ANet to put these beliefs/rumors to rest. Who else? Should they let these beliefs keep festering like the cancer they are and accept the losses of the unhappy hoping for enough new players to offset those losses? Yes, sales are still strong, but this does not seem like a very good long term strategy to me.

Was 2000g slowly goes back to normal price is 1400 atm

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

the main difference is, that while i understand that this is the way the game is. I dont think its a good paradigm to continue as the game matures. it doesnt necessarilly have to be shinies, but the game needs to create some more goals whose focus is less based on heavy grind/gold.
.

They have done this, though the development process and the fact that they have chosen not to collect new content into a single expansion but release it over time makes it hard to see sometimes. Success is a matter of opinion, and expectations.

Fractals and ascended gear were early attempts to add rewards that were not tied to gold acquisition. Ascended crafting for the most part continues this, though being able to buy and sell some of the materials seems to be a concession to more casual players, who can turn materials they don’t have a need for into gold so the hardcores can get their shinies faster.

They added the wardrobe to be more casual friendly, you can spend a single weapon claim ticket and use the skin on multiple toons, making it less of a grind for players with alts to find good skins to use.

They changed the trait system and added new traits to give goal-oriented players something to work towards. I haven’t looked into it, so I don’t know how successful it is so far, but it shows they are listening to players’ concerns.

Many LS event rewards were account-bound and cannot be bought with gold. Minis, armor skins and such that can be collected but not traded on the TP. Mostly a casual goal, with a few exceptions, because the LS content is usually pretty simple to complete. But it gives players a way to personalize their toons without grinding for thousands of gold.

Legendaries are high profile items, but hardly the only goal in the game for players to work towards. Many changes have happend just in the last month or so, and more are coming. The main problem is impatience, players do not realize there is a process involved where devs collect and analyze data about the players, discuss their options, and have to develop and test several new systems, some of which will be discarded at some point, before deciding on what changes to make to the game. Issues that were discussed in Winter 2012 are only now making it into the game, and issues being discussed now will not be resolved for at least six months, to a year or more.

Players who see a situation like Dusk prices and expect something to be done this week will only be disappointed. It just doesn’t work like that.

I agree with this. I think recently, they have implemented alot of economical changes, which arent short time fixes but aim to balance the economy in the coming months/years.

Wardrobe changes came along with price spikes for precursors and rare weapon skins, which is normal due to the added functionality. So demand is high right now but i think as soon as the bulk of the demand is satisfied, it will go down.
Maybe before the feature patch, there was steady demand of 20 dusks per day, and now its 30 dusk per day. But once those people who want one now got theirs, they will most likely never demand another dusk as long as they play. So after time, demand will go down to 10 per day and we will see prices fall. Many people who played since launch still havent got a legendary and might see the other changes made to the economy (no more gold from champ bags, QD Train elimination) as unfair but i think its part of a bigger scheme to balance the economy (and gameplay) towards new players.
It seems that many changes since the feature patch are tailored towards sinking mats and gold out of the economy to find a better balance between old and new players and introduce new reward structures.
Pushing gem to gold conversion propably is another point on their agenda but im fine with that. I rather have people giving their money to Anet then RMTs.

Leamas.5803:

This seems to be a limited use option to me. I already left once for 7 months due to appalling loot and no response about it from ANet.

That’s funny. In 7 months (assuming you’re counting backwards), I got a majority of my wealth. Drop rates were fantastic. 2 Precursors. Thousands of T6. I think this is a case of “you’re doing it wrong”.

The game rewards those who put in the effort to farm. If you want to get stuff, you can’t expect it to just drop in your lap AFKing in LA. Make some friends, join some guilds, and play.

I’m 6 legendaries deep, bought all my precursors and crafted each of them with earned materials. I’ve made a few TP investments that won, some that lost.. but not grinding it all day (promised myself not to after spending my life in GW1 trading in pre-searing all day LOL)

Love this game. I understand the loot concerns, but there are plenty of drops, it’s what you do with what you get that makes the difference.

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days…
PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

phys.7689:

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

This will probably happen for any item where the difference between buy/sell prices is greater than 15%. Flippers will compete with each other to place buy orders that they can make a profit on, but once that profit disappears they’ll stop placing orders.

phys.7689:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

I agree with you. And it is up to Anet if they want a precursor weapon (not a Legendary) to have a value of this high too. Anet knew, I believe, that those changes they’ve made at legendaries (account-bound, their skin can be applied many times, few cosmetic changes in eternity in last patch) would make precursors’ price climb to higher levels. But the difficult part for Anet was not to realise that precursors’ price will increase, but at which level they would go exactly! If Anet will be happy with the new “balanced point-price”, I guess they won’t make a change. If not, I guess they will have to take measures (example: other ways of acquiring precursor weapons).

I want to say something more. Buyers agreeing buying precursor weapons at higher prices (balanced point) doesn’t mean that their numbers stay the same. Will the number of buyers be the same again when precursor’s prices raise again (even when dawn and dusks are bought at that price)? Or will some quit game and bored with it? I think this matter should be considered by Anet. Achieving always a higher “balanced point” in price market doesn’t mean it is always the best for Anet’s interests.

The prices of any item on the TP is in the hands of players, not Anet. It doesn’t matter whether they like it or not, if the players support this price it will stay there.

Also, this is not the new price. It’s a spike due to a sharp rise in demand for reasons already discussed. The demand is driven by impatient players who want Twilight/Eternity now and don’t want to put in a reasonable buy offer and wait for it to be filled. When they get what they want, they will drop out of competition to buy Dusk and the more patient buyers will be left.

You can still place a buy order for any amount you think is fair. I believe that if you place a buy order now for Dusk at 1000g it will be filled in a month or two, after the market settles down a bit.

But if you want to make a quick few hundred gold flipping, buy at 1200 and sell for 1600 to someone who can’t wait a month.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

This will probably happen for any item where the difference between buy/sell prices is greater than 15%. Flippers will compete with each other to place buy orders that they can make a profit on, but once that profit disappears they’ll stop placing orders.

yeah but a decent amount of precursors are also selling to sell orders right now. there have been a number of 1400-1580 precursors sold in the last 18 hours, this suggests that the sell order price isnt a deterrent to the intended market. while some people get deals at 1240ish gold, buyers are willing to pay more. and sellers arent meeting their buy orders as fast as they d like.

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

This will probably happen for any item where the difference between buy/sell prices is greater than 15%. Flippers will compete with each other to place buy orders that they can make a profit on, but once that profit disappears they’ll stop placing orders.

yeah but a decent amount of precursors are also selling to sell orders right now. there have been a number of 1400-1580 precursors sold in the last 18 hours, this suggests that the sell order price isnt a deterrent to the intended market. while some people get deals at 1240ish gold, buyers are willing to pay more. and sellers arent meeting their buy orders as fast as they d like.

That’s flipping… finding the sweet spot between getting your orders filled and selling fast enough to get the gold to place more orders.

As for the sell orders moving quickly, that’s the “need my shiny nao!” crowd at work. They are the portion of the player base driving this economy and providing someone to flip to. God bless em.

Jimaruto.5389:

phys.7689:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

I agree with you. And it is up to Anet if they want a precursor weapon (not a Legendary) to have a value of this high too. Anet knew, I believe, that those changes they’ve made at legendaries (account-bound, their skin can be applied many times, few cosmetic changes in eternity in last patch) would make precursors’ price climb to higher levels. But the difficult part for Anet was not to realise that precursors’ price will increase, but at which level they would go exactly! If Anet will be happy with the new “balanced point-price”, I guess they won’t make a change. If not, I guess they will have to take measures (example: other ways of acquiring precursor weapons).

I want to say something more. Buyers agreeing buying precursor weapons at higher prices (balanced point) doesn’t mean that their numbers stay the same. Will the number of buyers be the same again when precursor’s prices raise again (even when dawn and dusks are bought at that price)? Or will some quit game and bored with it? I think this matter should be considered by Anet. Achieving always a higher “balanced point” in price market doesn’t mean it is always the best for Anet’s interests.

Anet wont lose many people who buy precursors at this price, they have money to spare, or just want what they want enough to get it. They may lose other people who cant afford the items though, but thats probably pretty hard to track.

if anet was concerned about anything, i think it would be the increasing cost of precursors over time relative to earning potential.

interestingly enough, sources of income for normal players are down, and precursors prices rise. Its basically cementing precursors as a rich mans item. its not like a house, which is a long term goal, many middle class people attain, its something that dances out of their reach.

tolunart.2095:

The prices of any item on the TP is in the hands of players, not Anet. It doesn’t matter whether they like it or not, if the players support this price it will stay there.

Also, this is not the new price. It’s a spike due to a sharp rise in demand for reasons already discussed. The demand is driven by impatient players who want Twilight/Eternity now and don’t want to put in a reasonable buy offer and wait for it to be filled. When they get what they want, they will drop out of competition to buy Dusk and the more patient buyers will be left.

You can still place a buy order for any amount you think is fair. I believe that if you place a buy order now for Dusk at 1000g it will be filled in a month or two, after the market settles down a bit.

But if you want to make a quick few hundred gold flipping, buy at 1200 and sell for 1600 to someone who can’t wait a month.

At your 2nd and 3rd paragraph you say some portions of how a “balanced price” is achieved. We don’t say something different. Of course the new “balanced price” hasn’t being achieved yet, because sellers sell dawn at 1600g and buyers buy them at 950g. When they somehow meet and agree, that’s when a “balanced point” is achieved.

But I don’t agree with your 1st paragraph. Anet of course can’t affect the trading post directly (example: buying for themsleves and selling for themselves). , but they can affect it indirectly as they have done it many times ‘till now. Example: Anet decides to give us all 1 precursor for free. Do you think that the decline in precursors’ price that will follow would be because of hands of players? Or of Anet’s action? (…of course Anet’s)

phys.7689:

Anet wont lose many people who buy precursors at this price, they have money to spare, or just want what they want enough to get it. They may lose other people who cant afford the items though, but thats probably pretty hard to track.

if anet was concerned about anything, i think it would be the increasing cost of precursors over time relative to earning potential.

interestingly enough, sources of income for normal players are down, and precursors prices rise. Its basically cementing precursors as a rich mans item. its not like a house, which is a long term goal, many middle class people attain, its something that dances out of their reach.

They’ll lose more players by handing out precursors like beads at Mardi Gras, players will get their shinies, have nothing new to focus on, and play another game that offers new shinies every 4-6 months.

Precursors drop for poor players, too. I think I had about 40s in my pockets when I got Dusk, it took me two weeks to save up the listing fee to sell it. Then I was a rich player too, for a little while.

You’re focusing on one side of the transaction, the guy who gets Dusk is out 1600g, but someone else is 1600g richer. Considering the number of unique sellers, a lot of them didn’t already have 1600g sitting in the bank before the sale.

Jimaruto.5389:

But I don’t agree with your 1st paragraph. Anet of course can’t affect the trading post directly (example: buying for themsleves and selling for themselves). , but they can affect it indirectly as they have done it many times ‘till now. Example: Anet decides to give us all 1 precursor for free. Do you think that the decline in precursors’ price that will follow would be because of hands of players? Or of Anet’s action?

This kind of thing was discussed a long time ago by John Smith, and the result of such a foolish move is a broken economy. There are more costs to the Legendary than just a precursor. Making them too easy to obtain (or simply giving them away) will cause a lot of people who might want to craft a Legendary to take steps to actively make one. This drives up the costs of everything else associated with it. When demand increases 1000x overnight for T6 mats, they will disappear from the TP faster than farmers can replenish the supply.

How do you feel about paying 10g per glob of ectoplasm? Not per stack, per unit. Sellers can’t make any money from precursors when everyone already has one, so the costs will be distributed across other materials, and go upupup because of the sudden spike in demand.

Fortunately, as I said JS already knows what will happen and would never do something so stupid and short-sighted.

phys.7689:

Jimaruto.5389:

phys.7689:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

I agree with you. And it is up to Anet if they want a precursor weapon (not a Legendary) to have a value of this high too. Anet knew, I believe, that those changes they’ve made at legendaries (account-bound, their skin can be applied many times, few cosmetic changes in eternity in last patch) would make precursors’ price climb to higher levels. But the difficult part for Anet was not to realise that precursors’ price will increase, but at which level they would go exactly! If Anet will be happy with the new “balanced point-price”, I guess they won’t make a change. If not, I guess they will have to take measures (example: other ways of acquiring precursor weapons).

I want to say something more. Buyers agreeing buying precursor weapons at higher prices (balanced point) doesn’t mean that their numbers stay the same. Will the number of buyers be the same again when precursor’s prices raise again (even when dawn and dusks are bought at that price)? Or will some quit game and bored with it? I think this matter should be considered by Anet. Achieving always a higher “balanced point” in price market doesn’t mean it is always the best for Anet’s interests.

Anet wont lose many people who buy precursors at this price, they have money to spare, or just want what they want enough to get it. They may lose other people who cant afford the items though, but thats probably pretty hard to track.

If people leave the game because they cant afford a precursor or legendary, thats hardly a loss for Anet. They gave them the opportunity to buy gold with gems. If people dont want to spend any money, even though they want a legendary so bad, an therefore leave the game, Anet doesnt lose anything.

APW.1569:

phys.7689:

Jimaruto.5389:

phys.7689:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Jimaruto.5389:

Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.

PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.

Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.

buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.

but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.

I agree with you. And it is up to Anet if they want a precursor weapon (not a Legendary) to have a value of this high too. Anet knew, I believe, that those changes they’ve made at legendaries (account-bound, their skin can be applied many times, few cosmetic changes in eternity in last patch) would make precursors’ price climb to higher levels. But the difficult part for Anet was not to realise that precursors’ price will increase, but at which level they would go exactly! If Anet will be happy with the new “balanced point-price”, I guess they won’t make a change. If not, I guess they will have to take measures (example: other ways of acquiring precursor weapons).

I want to say something more. Buyers agreeing buying precursor weapons at higher prices (balanced point) doesn’t mean that their numbers stay the same. Will the number of buyers be the same again when precursor’s prices raise again (even when dawn and dusks are bought at that price)? Or will some quit game and bored with it? I think this matter should be considered by Anet. Achieving always a higher “balanced point” in price market doesn’t mean it is always the best for Anet’s interests.

Anet wont lose many people who buy precursors at this price, they have money to spare, or just want what they want enough to get it. They may lose other people who cant afford the items though, but thats probably pretty hard to track.

If people leave the game because they cant afford a precursor or legendary, thats hardly a loss for Anet. They gave them the opportunity to buy gold with gems. If people dont want to spend any money, even though they want a legendary so bad, an therefore leave the game, Anet doesnt lose anything.

big mistake assuming that people who dont want to buy a legendary are not valuable customers.
1500 gold is like 270 dollars, while they get some people like that it would be foolish to tell everyone not willing to pay 270 dollars for one item to leave your store.

not to mention they have a lot of paying customers who would be willing to buy content, if the game seems fair to them. There are many ways to monetize, and keeping people engaged and around invariably leads to money.
take a look at google, twitch, faceboook everyone actively playing and satisfied is adding value to the product.

tolunart.2095:

Jimaruto.5389:

But I don’t agree with your 1st paragraph. Anet of course can’t affect the trading post directly (example: buying for themsleves and selling for themselves). , but they can affect it indirectly as they have done it many times ‘till now. Example: Anet decides to give us all 1 precursor for free. Do you think that the decline in precursors’ price that will follow would be because of hands of players? Or of Anet’s action?

This kind of thing was discussed a long time ago by John Smith, and the result of such a foolish move is a broken economy. There are more costs to the Legendary than just a precursor. Making them too easy to obtain (or simply giving them away) will cause a lot of people who might want to craft a Legendary to take steps to actively make one. This drives up the costs of everything else associated with it. When demand increases 1000x overnight for T6 mats, they will disappear from the TP faster than farmers can replenish the supply.

How do you feel about paying 10g per glob of ectoplasm? Not per stack, per unit. Sellers can’t make any money from precursors when everyone already has one, so the costs will be distributed across other materials, and go upupup because of the sudden spike in demand.

Of course giving a precursor away to all is not a good move. :P I just gave this example (even if it is silly) just to explain how it is easy for Anet to change the market without the hands of people.
Basically, I believe it is difficult for Anet to launch changes (new patches) and the market won’t change a bit or won’t be affected. We always see an indirect influence of Anet on market. Don’t forget that Guild Wars 2 is a digital world where Anet is God. And if they know some economics, they can change the market pretty well… with indirect “legal” methods.

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

What we know is that the demand for Dusk is high enough to support the current prices. This is because of the wardrobe system and the recent upgrade of Eternity’s graphic effects. More people want Twilight/Eternity and therefore there are more people trying to outspend each other.

This is a natural consequence of changes that were made to the game, not manipulation. If players say “1500g for a precursor is too much” then Dusk would not be selling at that price. Yes, that means if someone is willing to spend more money than you, or has more money to spend than you, then you will not get the item. Anet can do nothing about this, it is purely the result of the willingness of players to spend more money than everyone else.

anet designed an item with a means of obtaining it that is only marketed to those who can make the most as you say, which means dusk is a rich mans weapon until the rich get bored with it.
as the differnce in wealth grows, so to will the attainability of this item for the non wealthy.

… and no one has demonstrated this is a problem. I’m going to speculate that this is likely the way Legendary weapons should have always been through Anet’s concept. You’re reinforcing the intent with your observations.

Jimaruto.5389:

Of course giving a precursor away to all is not a good move. :P I just gave this example (even if it is silly) just to explain how it is easy for Anet to change the market without the hands of people.

It’s very easy to destroy the market, yes. But they don’t want to do that, because the TP is an important tool for players to use.

Managing the economy is a little more complicated than you think.

My fellow players – Welcome to the free market!

If 50,000 players want to pay 700 Gold for a Precursor that’s short on supply, and 3 or 4 are willing to pay ~1300 Gold for the same Precursor, guess who I’m selling it to?

Smooth Penguin.5294:

My fellow players – Welcome to the free market!

If 50,000 players want to pay 700 Gold for a Precursor that’s short on supply, and 3 or 4 are willing to pay ~1300 Gold for the same Precursor, guess who I’m selling it to?

Well obviously it’s Anet’s responsibility to smack you around until you sell it to the lowest bidder, because if not he will feel bad. I’ll give you a copper for it.

tolunart.2095:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

My fellow players – Welcome to the free market!

If 50,000 players want to pay 700 Gold for a Precursor that’s short on supply, and 3 or 4 are willing to pay ~1300 Gold for the same Precursor, guess who I’m selling it to?

Well obviously it’s Anet’s responsibility to smack you around until you sell it to the lowest bidder, because if not he will feel bad. I’ll give you a copper for it.

Comrade, the Moletariate would be proud of you.

Anet need to make rumor about salvage hunt again,price went down fast last time

Lots of entitled players complaining here.

Luxury items are a luxury. Stop whining! You don’t deserve something based purely on want. A legendary weapon should be…….hold on…..this will be a shocker………….LEGENDARY.

For those of you crying about not being able to craft a precursor, Anet never promised you that you would be able to craft the precursors of the current legendary weapons. Nope, not once. In fact, they brought in ascended weapons that equal legendary stats. That should be all they need to do.

If you want a precursor, go earn it.

RoyalPredator.9163:

I’m with Lilith Ajit.6173.
It is simply not possible to have bad luck for 7 years in GW1 and nearly 2 in GW2.

More “bad luck” stems from grossly optimistic expectations about the norm than it does from actually performing steadily below the average…

Smooth Penguin.5294:

My fellow players – Welcome to the free market!

It’s no free market, ‘cause the price for all high priced items are being manipulated by gold sellers and TP guilds (since TP is the easiest way to make money). Even in a “free market”, you’d call this a cartel.

But: As long as someone wants to pay that much gold for a pre, it’s his/her decision. If you don’t want to, then don’t do it.

illo.5106:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

My fellow players – Welcome to the free market!

It’s no free market, ‘cause the price for all high priced items are being manipulated by gold sellers and TP guilds (since TP is the easiest way to make money). Even in a “free market”, you’d call this a cartel.

But: As long as someone wants to pay that much gold for a pre, it’s his/her decision. If you don’t want to, then don’t do it.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Dusk-2000g/first#post4048636

58 unique buyers. 54 unique sellers. So manipulation. Much wow.

Tentonhammr.7849:

illo.5106:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

My fellow players – Welcome to the free market!

It’s no free market, ‘cause the price for all high priced items are being manipulated by gold sellers and TP guilds (since TP is the easiest way to make money). Even in a “free market”, you’d call this a cartel.

But: As long as someone wants to pay that much gold for a pre, it’s his/her decision. If you don’t want to, then don’t do it.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Dusk-2000g/first#post4048636

58 unique buyers. 54 unique sellers. So manipulation. Much wow.

if you want to disprove a cartel theory,
the amount of unique sellers is not relevant, because they are a cartel
Also, you should look at your data, the data he gave is actually showing 39/60 hours of information from before dusk was put up at 2000.

anyhow, no one has proven a cartel exists, but no one has disproven it either.

One advantage i will say with precursors, since they are purposefully manufactured, (via forge) high demand can generate greater to supply to match it. which helps decrease the strength of anyone trying to corner the market, and equalize the price. only problem is its kind of a gamble to get in the game.

i think the economy overall would be better if more items were mostly provided by intention rather than random chance

phys.7689:

anyhow, no one has proven a cartel exists, but no one has disproven it either.

No one has proven Santa Claus exists, but no one has disproven it either.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

anyhow, no one has proven a cartel exists, but no one has disproven it either.

No one has proven Santa Claus exists, but no one has disproven it either.

yeah logically what you said makes sense, but you are applying it illogically.

the correct application of something you can neither prove nor disprove is to give an unknown value. Saying its unknown, so its valid i place its value at false, because i like it as false, is a false application of the logic.

even for santa claus.

phys.7689:

i think the economy overall would be better if more items were mostly provided by intention rather than random chance

Legendaries are made through the MF, they don’t drop randomly.

Ascended gear is crafted or can be bought from a vendor, in addition to random drops. The materials needed to craft are collected from specific activities and crafted.

Armor and weapons in various stat combinations can be crafted, from fine quality through exotic (and ascended, as mentioned).

Food, dyes, trinkets and other supplemental items can be crafted, most of these items are made this way rather than found through random drops.

High-demand weapon and armor skins are bought from a vendor, obtained as LS rewards, crafted, etc. Some are random drops, but most are not. Some are no longer obtainable but can be brought back at any time, as the current LS event shows.

Crafting materials are harvested, or salvaged. They can also come from bags but do not drop randomly by themselves.

What can only be found randomly? Vendor trash, for one thing, but its only purpose is to sell for a bit of coin. Various qualities of gear drop randomly, but also can be crafted or bought from a vendor. Rares and exotics drop often enough that there is a decent supply on the TP.

What other special, high demand items only appear in the game randomly? Everything I have any use for can be crafted or found elsewhere, I am not held at the mercy of RNG. Did I miss something, because I can’t think of anything else.

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

anyhow, no one has proven a cartel exists, but no one has disproven it either.

No one has proven Santa Claus exists, but no one has disproven it either.

yeah logically what you said makes sense, but you are applying it illogically.

the correct application of something you can neither prove nor disprove is to give an unknown value. Saying its unknown, so its valid i place its value at false, because i like it as false, is a false application of the logic.

even for santa claus.

Yep, cartels of evil TP barons do not set the prices on the TP. A couple million players all competing for a handful of high value items do.

So I’m curious, for everyone who says precursors are fine where they are due to supply and demand: what about the Chaos of Lyssa recipe?

I see a bunch of QQ on other threads and if it’s the same people who say precursors are fine, it would seem to be ironically hypocritical.

DaveGan.8065:

So I’m curious, for everyone who says precursors are fine where they are due to supply and demand: what about the Chaos of Lyssa recipe?

I see a bunch of QQ on other threads and if it’s the same people who say precursors are fine, it would seem to be ironically hypocritical.

I have no idea what the Chaos of Lyssa recipe is or what is happening with it.

People immediately screaming cartels/manipulators without a shred of evidence, brilliant.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

i think the economy overall would be better if more items were mostly provided by intention rather than random chance

Legendaries are made through the MF, they don’t drop randomly.

Ascended gear is crafted or can be bought from a vendor, in addition to random drops. The materials needed to craft are collected from specific activities and crafted.

Armor and weapons in various stat combinations can be crafted, from fine quality through exotic (and ascended, as mentioned).

Food, dyes, trinkets and other supplemental items can be crafted, most of these items are made this way rather than found through random drops.

High-demand weapon and armor skins are bought from a vendor, obtained as LS rewards, crafted, etc. Some are random drops, but most are not. Some are no longer obtainable but can be brought back at any time, as the current LS event shows.

Crafting materials are harvested, or salvaged. They can also come from bags but do not drop randomly by themselves.

What can only be found randomly? Vendor trash, for one thing, but its only purpose is to sell for a bit of coin. Various qualities of gear drop randomly, but also can be crafted or bought from a vendor. Rares and exotics drop often enough that there is a decent supply on the TP.

What other special, high demand items only appear in the game randomly? Everything I have any use for can be crafted or found elsewhere, I am not held at the mercy of RNG. Did I miss something, because I can’t think of anything else.

I was talking about the matket. Ascended ends up account bound.
Precusors as I said are intentionally created.
Most other high demand items are not primarily created by intent.
Basic materials primarily from drops or salavge from.drops
Crafting mats primarily from loot bags/chests teir 5s and 6
Lodestonea from champ bags and boss chests
Ecto from rare drops which primarily from random
Sigils and runes primarily from random drops or forge

phys.7689:

I was talking about the matket. Ascended ends up account bound.
Precusors as I said are intentionally created.
Most other high demand items are not primarily created by intent.
Basic materials primarily from drops or salavge from.drops
Crafting mats primarily from loot bags/chests teir 5s and 6
Lodestonea from champ bags and boss chests
Ecto from rare drops which primarily from random
Sigils and runes primarily from random drops or forge

I don’t think we have the same dictionary. Most of those things are created by intent. For example, if I salvage rare/exotic items, it is my intent to get ectos and/or sigils and runes.

You gather crafting mats from nodes and creatures, it is your intent to obtain these items.

Etc.

I haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about or why it’s bad. You think the game is ruined because you cannot farm Ancient Blood fast enough? Your original statement was that more items should be provided through intent rather than at random. Most items in the game are obtainable through non-random means such as crafting and vendors.

Your statement simply makes no sense.

Beyond that, random distribution of loot has its place, and is a tradition going back to the first RPG, Dungeons and Dragons. It provides incentive to explore the world and try different things, rather than simply stand on a hill and kill Monster X over and over until you collect enough gold and loot to satisfy your goals.

For example, if I need 100 basilisk fangs to complete the Sword of Awesomeness, and every basilisk I kill drops a fang, then all I have to do is go to where they spawn and keep killing basilisks until I get enough fangs.

But if I need 100 glowing rubies, which is a rare drop from many different creatures, I have a choice of regions to explore in order to find enemies that drop them, and I am motivated to continue exploring and killing enemies because I can find the rubies faster that way than waiting for the same six creatures to respawn.

I honestly don’t understand most of the complaints people have about this game. Without kill-stealing, node-stealing, quest-stealing, with open world events and no loot rolls, I’ve had a better experience in this game than any other MMO. Is it really that wonderful to spend one night every week for months chasing after a rare drop from a raid boss, only to lose the roll and see someone else walk away with your prize?

tolunart.2095:

random distribution of loot has its place

For example, if I need 100 basilisk fangs to complete the Sword of Awesomeness, and every basilisk I kill drops a fang, then all I have to do is go to where they spawn and keep killing basilisks until I get enough fangs.

But if I need 100 glowing rubies, which is a rare drop from many different creatures, I have a choice of regions to explore in order to find enemies that drop them, and I am motivated to continue exploring and killing enemies because I can find the rubies faster that way than waiting for the same six creatures to respawn.

A precursor is the equivalent to needing 1 single ultrabright megaperfect superflawless godblinding ruby.

Your 100 glowing rubies example is pretty consistent with the idea of precursor fragments I’ve been tossing around earlier.

**Again I should mention I have no issue with the (total) price of a precursor. Fragmenting them would simply allow people to better hedge against price changes while letting the supply and demand work as before.

Close analogy would be thinking of Mjolnir as a precursor and charged lodestones as the fragments.

DaveGan.8065:

tolunart.2095:

random distribution of loot has its place

For example, if I need 100 basilisk fangs to complete the Sword of Awesomeness, and every basilisk I kill drops a fang, then all I have to do is go to where they spawn and keep killing basilisks until I get enough fangs.

But if I need 100 glowing rubies, which is a rare drop from many different creatures, I have a choice of regions to explore in order to find enemies that drop them, and I am motivated to continue exploring and killing enemies because I can find the rubies faster that way than waiting for the same six creatures to respawn.

A precursor is the equivalent to needing 1 single ultrabright megaperfect superflawless godblinding ruby.

Your 100 glowing rubies example is pretty consistent with the idea of precursor fragments I’ve been tossing around earlier.

So? I was talking about crafting mats – blood, claws, scales, etc.

tolunart.2095:

So? I was talking about crafting mats – blood, claws, scales, etc.

I see very few people complaining about the crafting mats.

It seems you’re either guilty of a strawman, or guilty of grouping everyone unsatisfied with the current state of precursors into one united group.

Most of the “I saved up 800g but the price went up to 1000g, then saved to 1000 and it became 1250” complaints are not about the price but the inability to effectively hedge against the price increase.

I was responding to Phys:

“i think the economy overall would be better if more items were mostly provided by intention rather than random chance”

…

“Crafting mats primarily from loot bags/chests teir 5s and 6
Lodestonea from champ bags and boss chests
Ecto from rare drops which primarily from random
Sigils and runes primarily from random drops or forge”

Going back to ignoring you now.

DaveGan.8065:

tolunart.2095:

So? I was talking about crafting mats – blood, claws, scales, etc.

I see very few people complaining about the crafting mats.

That’s the point. Crafting mats have gone up substantially, too. But people mostly complain about precursor prices, because those are a single purchase with very low supply — when it changes by 25%, it’s very, very noticeable, but when that happens with Powerful Bloods, it doesn’t get much attention (also possibly because mats will go up and down very quickly within the same day).

It’s similar to people’s perception of the risk of mortality: people are (generally) more scared of flying than driving, even though 34,000 Americans die from auto accidents each year while less than 500 die from aviation accidents world wide. As humans, we notice the big numbers: 270 people from Malaysia Flt 370, but not the small ones: a few people in your city each weekend. (I don’t mean to start a political debate about which is “safer” — the point is: big numbers capture our attention; little ones don’t.)

There is one reason why I would never buy a precursor.
That would be the only drop that would finally get back that “wow*” feeling instead of just going “meh, salvage/flush”.

*notthegame