Guild Wars 2

by place I mean LS event, like how the current place we farm is in LA, the next one could be farming inside the drill tower. Who knows how lucrative it is and if it keeps people way from doing metaevents.

It’s down to 33,976 :P
At 37s, they would of had to buy below 31s45c to make a profit. The last time buy orders were that low was 1 week ago. More likely they bought it late jan at 29s. I expect they didn’t buy them in aug at 18s because of the 39s sell price during dec.
if they bought at 29s and sold 92,000 of them, that’s a 2,254 gold profit (after TP tax).

Mystic.5934:

It’s down to 33,976 :P
At 37s, they would of had to buy below 31s45c to make a profit. The last time buy orders were that low was 1 week ago. More likely they bought it late jan at 29s. I expect they didn’t buy them in aug at 18s because of the 39s sell price during dec.
if they bought at 29s and sold 92,000 of them, that’s a 2,254 gold profit (after TP tax).

which is still less than a 10% profit. They could have gotten much more gold buying and selling other things instead.

iFruit.6190:

I cannot visualize a single player posting that many.

A couple months after launch, someone posted a buy order for a single Lemon for approximately 3800 gold iirc, as a joke. Lemons were account bound and it was before Anet fixed the TP to prohibit such buy orders. Gold was worth double or triple what is is now due to inflation. If someone were to place that buy order today, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were over 20,000 gold.

That was just one guy playing a joke. Think of how much more money he might have had then, and how much he has now.

Why do people think it’s a single person? Just as likely people who were selling at current low sell price piling on. 37g is a nice even number that was much higher than where it was a day or two before.

Essence Snow.3194:

Risingashes.8694:

There are two sides to every transaction. No one can force you to buy or sell to them. Everyone benefits.

Everyone involved in that particular transaction yes, but not everyone else that that or those transaction/s effect. Each transaction within a market effects that particular market and to an extent other markets as well. There’s a lot more being effected by trading than just the two sides in a particular or series transaction/s.

How does my buying 5 ectos at 6s59c, and someone selling those 5 ectos at 6s59c effect anyone other than 2 people?

Edit: Just to save time-

You: Other people aren’t able to buy those 5 ectos.

Me: Those ectos aren’t available to them, the only market that effects them is the one they can immediately act upon.

You: People buying items that turn in to ectos use the price of ectos to make their purchasing decision.

Me: Their decisions are effected only by current buy and sell prices, not by my individual purchase. They might use historical prices as part of that decision but that is their choice and goes against the spirit of what I was actually saying, which is that individual transactions have no involvement and as such no responsibility to anyone other than the two people engaged in that transaction.

If you’re arguing determinism I have to ask what exactly your point is. If you make things meaningless enough, everything can arguable effect everything else. But such a definition of ‘effect’ holds essentially zero meaning outside of a drum circle.

We’re trying to examine an actual thing that is happening, what use does ‘everything effects everything’ have to this discussion?

I highly expect another non-committal ‘some people just don’t understand the infinity of the universe’ fob-off that you’ve used for other legitimate queries higher up in the thread but here’s hoping for an actual defense.

Behellagh.1468:

Why do people think it’s a single person? Just as likely people who were selling at current low sell price piling on. 37g is a nice even number that was much higher than where it was a day or two before.

Because players undercut all the time. I’ve only seen like <10k globs for the same price. Nobody sells his stuff for the same price if there are already 50k

Hard to believe this is from one player, because that’s worth like over 25’000 gold.

The only two possibilities I can imagine are:
a) A large guild with an agreement not to undercut
b) ANET

Id say its ( A ) to be honest, not so much as to undercut but probably to try and stabilise the price somewhat, but 53k is a drop in the ocean in this game, im sure there are 100’s of thousands of ecto’s traded daily.

dbgfeller.8120:

Behellagh.1468:

Why do people think it’s a single person? Just as likely people who were selling at current low sell price piling on. 37g is a nice even number that was much higher than where it was a day or two before.

Because players undercut all the time. I’ve only seen like <10k globs for the same price. Nobody sells his stuff for the same price if there are already 50k

Hard to believe this is from one player, because that’s worth like over 25’000 gold.

The only two possibilities I can imagine are:
a) A large guild with an agreement not to undercut
b) ANET

You underestimate the shear laziness or indifference of players. The ones who don’t pause long enough on the sell screen to register the number already at that price. They just sell at current low sale price, just as they sell at current high bid which causes the spikes down to the high bid you see on the history graphs because they are selling more than whatever the bid was for so the excess generates a new sell order at the previous high bid price. (Well really the sell order is generated first at the high bid price and then the bid is fulfilled.)

You see this a lot with high volume items on the TP, thousands at the same price, you would think people would undercut but it’s not worth their time because it’s more important to start the next speedrun or hop back on the champ train. These are the players who constantly bump into the sell speed limitation because they are want to dump a dozen or two items in under a minute. You think they even notice the price much less than the current quantity at the speeds they want to sell at?

Behellagh.1468:

Why do people think it’s a single person? Just as likely people who were selling at current low sell price piling on. 37g is a nice even number that was much higher than where it was a day or two before.

Then how come we didn’t see 5 figures at 38s? 36s? 35s?

Well looking at the month chart, it looks as if the volume of trades have gone up. So there may have been “dams” at 35s or 36s and the flood waters rose and wiped them away. I’m basing that assumption on the decrease in available supply. It looks as if supply has reached equilibrium again and that’s why the price really hasn’t continued to go up. Supply dropped 100,000 while demand increased only 10,000.

Of course that could just mean players stopped cracking rares for the gooey ectos inside due to the event and that’s why the excess supply was consumed.

Behellagh.1468:

Well looking at the month chart, it looks as if the volume of trades have gone up. So there may have been “dams” at 35s or 36s and the flood waters rose and wiped them away. I’m basing that assumption on the decrease in available supply. It looks as if supply has reached equilibrium again and that’s why the price really hasn’t continued to go up. Supply dropped 100,000 while demand increased only 10,000.

Of course that could just mean players stopped cracking rares for the gooey ectos inside due to the event and that’s why the excess supply was consumed.

Where can be a fair equilibrium if the market is under someone’s “control”? You can tell that if everything is et ceteris paribus, not if someone tries to hold a price up. This isn’t a perfect competition. Also in my opinion most players are not lazy. They just don’t care about the TP Game. And players who care about their prices will orientate themselves at this “dam” price.

I really hope this manipulation isn’t by Anet to prevent players to have too much gold because of a possible deflation as a result of farm events like the actual. On the otherside inflation seems to be ok. There is nobody dumping prices like iron ore…

VitaminK.2517:

Behellagh.1468:

Well looking at the month chart, it looks as if the volume of trades have gone up. So there may have been “dams” at 35s or 36s and the flood waters rose and wiped them away. I’m basing that assumption on the decrease in available supply. It looks as if supply has reached equilibrium again and that’s why the price really hasn’t continued to go up. Supply dropped 100,000 while demand increased only 10,000.

Of course that could just mean players stopped cracking rares for the gooey ectos inside due to the event and that’s why the excess supply was consumed.

Where can be a fair equilibrium if the market is under someone’s “control”? You can tell that if everything is et ceteris paribus, not if someone tries to hold a price up. This isn’t a perfect competition. Also in my opinion most players are not lazy. They just don’t care about the TP Game. And players who care about their prices will orientate themselves at this “dam” price.

I really hope this manipulation isn’t by Anet to prevent players to have too much gold because of a possible deflation as a result of farm events like the actual. On the otherside inflation seems to be ok. There is nobody dumping prices like iron ore…

When all you have is a hammer, everything is a nail. When you believe that market manipulation is the root of all things you dislike about the TP, they you “see” it everywhere.

In Dec and Jan ecto supplies rose 6-8x and the price dropped from 39s to 30s. Since the Feb 19th this trend reversed and supply dropped off rapidly. So either real demand is up and/or production is down.

Now when supply is on the rice prices are going down, you end up with a large spread of prices with very few items at each price. Players simply keep undercutting rather than pile on because the price isn’t recovering. However when supply is falling these low priced sale orders are quickly snapped up so looking in from the outside you see the price quickly rising. Now with supply falling and prices constantly going up the better play is not to undercut but actually price above the current low sale price.

This is where the psychology of “walls” come into play. When you see a huge number of items at a particular price, you hesitate going on the wrong side of it, based on the direction of prices. In this case it discourages pricing above it because you don’t know how long until it’s broken through, if ever. That leaves you either pricing your item just under it or join the masses at the wall. The choice is really how patient you are VS how quickly you need the coin.

This still doesn’t stop players from selling to highest bid, ignoring the demand at that price which causes the sharp short term spikes to just above the new highest bid. But that quickly vanishes and prices jump back up closer to the wall. Looks as if 36.5-37s is the current intentional sell price range. And when I looked last night the wall had eroded down to 29K@37s.

1. I never said anything like manipulation is the problem of the TP. I just don’t see the occurrence with the ectoplasma globes as something normal like you do. Maybe it is caused by accident but that huge amount of globes is suspicious. Maybe manipulation is the wrong word in english but i am not a native speaker. Let’s say control measures.

2. Psychologic Game? I don’t see where i disagree. I noted that people will orientate their prices at the mark. And with people i mean seller who are interested in TP prices. if there are more interested or non-interested, can’t be said. There is no proof for your nor mine thesis. Of course prices will go down but look what people do at the TP. They underbid by maximum 1 silver at that level of value. Mostly 1 copper. So you slow the decline of values with measures like this. And a reason for doing this could be that events like Lion’s Arch, dropping a large amount of loot, dump values of most goods. Although the LS seen as events is already used as a market control.

3. Looking at gw2 spidy for time-related data this is nothing more than interpreting, In the actual content all you can see is the exo globe price rose. The globes maybe needed for Gift of Globes but on the other side bolt of damask price went down during the crunch mode of the actual event. As long as we have the living story we don’t have a cycle only assumptions what might happen if… .

So yes, it’s in my opinion a market control measure or manipulation. And no, i’m not a conspiracy fan or a economy hater.

Well I use GW2TP.COM, their charts sample much more frequently than GW2Spidy.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/19721-glob-of-ectoplasm

Yes, it is entirely up to interpretation. I have compared looking at these charts to divining the popularity of a particular breakfast cereal in your market by counting how many are on the shelf daily and charting that data. You have no idea how frequently the shelf is restocked so you have no sense of actual trading volume.

All that the chart really shows is ecto supply blooming from 20-30K at the beginning of December and by mid February approaching 260K while total number of bids remained nearly constant. Then at the start of the Escape event ecto supply started to shrink rapidly. Why it’s shrinking at the rate it is entirely up to speculation. As far as I know none of the back items require ectos to craft.

Ah ok, first of all thanks. That site looks nice and not so overloaded with informations like spidy.

I hope you took Kelloggs. They are for decades now frequently demanded ;-)

The tailor backpiece actually needs spool of silk weaving thread. One thread needs 1 globe. I guess there is the same for armorsmith and leatherworker.

I’m talking about the new back items, and I was wrong as the ascended version of the blade pack does require ectos in one form or another so that is the source of the drain.

I’m just one that rolls his eyes at the requirements of ascended gear and decided the minor gain isn’t worth the time investment to bother with any of it. I’d rather enjoy playing the game as a game rather than a min/max exercise.

It’s why I believe a decay mechanic should be implemented. Where an item would loose it’s crafting potency and require more to create with. This would lessen hording/speculating over time.

Since it was mentioned on page one, this is my lifetime TP usage, 9212 items bought / 1478 items sold. That’s considering it’s for thousands of hours played. Most of the purchases are for boosting Magic Find. I believe most players whom are not traders would have similar numbers.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Mystic.5934:

It’s down to 33,976 :P
At 37s, they would of had to buy below 31s45c to make a profit. The last time buy orders were that low was 1 week ago. More likely they bought it late jan at 29s. I expect they didn’t buy them in aug at 18s because of the 39s sell price during dec.
if they bought at 29s and sold 92,000 of them, that’s a 2,254 gold profit (after TP tax).

which is still less than a 10% profit. They could have gotten much more gold buying and selling other things instead.

Far less work though. You buy one thing, wait and relist. Easy 10% profit by just sitting on one thing.

So now that the 92,000 price wall has come down, I wonder what price ectos will settle at.

38s?

Well, there is another 80k wall at 39s now, someone really has too many ecto’s.

I think it may settle around 37-39s each for the time being

The 80k wall at 39.0s had been built at least 2 days ago. I checked offers upward of 37.0s Friday morning when the 92k wall was gone and there it was. Since then it has been briefly hit a few times but now there’s additional supply in the 38.5-39.0 range so I think that’s where it will settle unless the next backpack upgrade requires ectos.

Natsu Dragneel.1625:

Well, there is another 80k wall at 39s now, someone really has too many ecto’s.

I think it may settle around 37-39s each for the time being

What exactly do you mean by ‘too many’ ectos?

The person bought the ectos from people happy to sell to him for the offered price, they didn’t steal the ectos from helpless victims. Why are you implying dirty dealings here, what exact scenario are you imagining where someone can have ‘too much’ of something outside of hacking or exploits?