Guild Wars 2

That’s it, I’m selling mine!

I don’t like bashing Anet because I love this game and have played since launch. But in my opinion they have handled precursor crafting terribly. I have crafted two legendaries and have had to buy the precursor for both of them. I am working on my third which just happens to be twilight. I have almost 800g and thought I was getting close to dusk so I am a bit frustrated. I have accepted long ago I will never get a precursor drop.

HHR LostProphet.4801:

phys.7689:

I dont dislike TP baroning because they are rich, i dislike it because the game reward systems are too based around the economic style of the Items team, and not enough about game design.

the problem is the things the game are the best at, dynamic events, open world content, instances, etc, are not properly rewarded, or have weak incentives (not just talking about gold here) And while the pittance of copper from events isnt much, its really sad to see events get even less incentive for completion.

Its sad to see that common players who primarily kill stuff will have less available money, and also make less money from sales, (because the bulk of day to day materials are collected by all players) Dudes in the Tp forum even have graphs and equations showing how prices for day to day farmable goods will drop with peoples wealth.
So who wins? The people who dont earn based on drops. The gap between regular play wealth and tp mastery wealth grows, and that benefits no one but TP players. Playing the game feels less rewarding, and i have to run merchant based activities more when i want to make money, which i find boring.

Hopefully the last blogs have something built in that will actually foster some type of progression or reward systems that work to incentivize people to do more interesting activities, but im not too hopeful.

I don’t like TP flipping at all. Those guys do nothing but buying and selling stuff and yet get the most gold out of it, while people who play the game how it’s meant to be played earn less and less gold. Ofcourse, you could argue that making profit out of the TP requires some sort of skill. But I think those guys ruining enough in real life, they don’t have to ruin my game-experience too.

I happily repeat myself regarding that matter.

I got mine a couple weeks ago for around 880? Are you using place order method?

Heck, even the actual twilight is only 2200 on the via place order…

Next highest precursor the Legend is 1200g. Dawn is less than 1000g. There are only three Dusks available on the TP right now.

Looking at the records for Dusk at http://www.gw2tp.com/item/29185-dusk

it appears that there were three Dusks available around noon today for approximately 1200g each. So it looks like someone with a lot of gold on hand (perhaps from speculating about the price of mats after the recent update) bought all three and is attempting to “flip” them.

All this means is that someone got greedy and will likely waste a lot of money on listing fees. New Dusks will drop and provide an opportunity for those who are lucky (or persistent with respect to the MF) who can then undercut the greedy seller and bring the prices back in line with the rest of the precursors.

So, what exactly is the problem here? Dusk was 1200g this morning. Tonight it’s a crisis that Anet was supposed to prevent… how? By telling someone he’s not allowed to buy an item from the TP and flip it? Supply is down since yesterday (there were as many as 12 Dusks for sale on 5/20) so it appears a few people took advantage of the market speculation to move forward in their journey towards Twilight. In a few days it will be back to normal.

Masters in economics? Really? You really expect anyone to believe that? I sure don’t, you have demonstrated an incredible lack of knowledge about the game economy that it took me, who never had an economics class in my life, two minutes to research.

Precursor prices tend to be related to the cost of rares. ~250attempts with rares 0.4% or ~160 attempts with exotics 0.6% (average from forums and my friend who is in the precurosr market). Rare greatswords cost 65-70s or 2.5-2.8g per attempt, exotics 3.5-4.5g per exotic or 15-18g per attempt. The price of a dusk/dawn should be more than what it takes to craft one (675-2500g). Demand is high so it is extremely hard to keep any of the popular precursors in stock. 3 Dusks (2000g),14 Dawn (900g) in stock.

Can’t agree more, precursors should be craftable.
Anyway getting the gifts is long long grind and hard work, most of the people will never craft legendary anyway beacause of the gifts, and so i dont see why precursors cant be crafted.

Soooooo someone got lucky with their drops and is now trying to capitalize on it by selling ridiculously valued items on the TP. Why is this a problem?

tolunart.2095:

All this means is that someone got greedy and will likely waste a lot of money on listing fees. New Dusks will drop and provide an opportunity for those who are lucky (or persistent with respect to the MF) who can then undercut the greedy seller and bring the prices back in line with the rest of the precursors.

If these guys would always just “lose lots of money on listing fees”, then they wouldn’t be able to buy ’cursors in the first place D;

Someone bought up all 3 and is attempting to flip them. More the reason why Anet should just abandoned gold completely.. preferably sooner rather than later.

Just institute either an elaborate crafting system and/or turn the TP into a barter house.

Much like Diablo 3, players can’t be left to control an economy without wrecking it. Greed plays too big of a factor when there is too much emphasis on gold.

Darn! I sold mine way too cheap. =(

1200g is a problem in the first place. Where is crafting already. While crafting might not be cheaper per se, I’d rather put forward that effort that grind out 1200 gold.

Jimaruto.5389:

I have decided to make a post of this matter (after months of frustration) because I think, the price has finally reached a godlike height. Right now (and I don’t know for how much longer) dusk’s price is 2000g!

Unlike most accusations of manipulation, the disappearance of the 3 dusks around 1200g and the subsequent listing of 3 around 2000g does look like an attempt to flip an item with very low availability. What remains to be seen is if they will sell at 2000g; right now it looks like buy orders around 1200g are probably being filled, so it would be profitable to make a high buy offer (e.g. 1250g) and offer to sell at 15% above the purchase price (> 1470g) … I would be surprised if no one starts doing this. Also — the high buy offers will encourage more people to throw in rare and exotic greatswords in the hope of getting a dusk … increasing the supply. At a minimum, this flipper will encourage creation of more Dusks … and it seems likely that others will undercut these listings.

I won’t be buying precursors on the TP, because I think lottery systems are bad per se — I do think ANet needs to implement a better way to acquire them. But this particular example looks like one where the flipper is probably going to lose — there’s enough supply of new Dusks coming in that they’re likely to be undercut before those sell. And even if they do make money … I’ll consider it a bit dirty, but I think it will increase the supply of Dusks, which would be because people are willing to pay more for them.

linuxotaku.4731:

Also — the high buy offers will encourage more people to throw in rare and exotic greatswords in the hope of getting a dusk … increasing the supply.

This is pretty much why I did it today. Bought 80 lvl 80 rare GS’s after reading this thread and on the 11th combination in the MF, I received a Dusk. Sold the remaining ones back to the TP and hyperventilated for a few minutes. My main reason for trying it again today (gambled with about 300G total…still surprising lucky), was because there was only 3 available on the TP, so I convinced myself that one was due to come out of the MF. Not going to sell it though. I’ve been working on Twilight for a while now.

I love how few people controlling the market

Its simple. The uber rich in game such as my self bought up a ton of the dusk/dawn precursors knowing that the demand will go up when Anet made eternity awesome. Just set the price to whatever I want and sit back and let the money roll in. The only way this will ever change is if pre cursors are easier to get or you take the money away from the uber rich. Which isnt going to happen.

^ I’m gonna hax this guy account <3

Well, if you want it then pay up! You can get all the items in gw2 if you stop being cheap and just use the gemstore gold conversion! Smh!

The silence from Anet regarding precursors is deafening.

Why dusk so expensive when twilight is the ugliest legendary?

a t s e.9614:

Why dusk so expensive when twilight is the ugliest legendary?

They made improvements to Eternity in the last patch. Eternity = Twilight + Sunlight. This makes both Dawn and Dusk more valuable due to the increase in demand, but there are currently too many Dawns on the TP to do this with. But this morning there were only 3-4 Dusks.

For a master’s degree in economics, you haven’t said anything that I didn’t learn from career class in highschool.

Allow my crazy brain to work here for a moment: Precursors and legendaries in the game are not a necessary commodity. They are a luxury. Because they are a luxury, this means that buy price and list price are not the actual exchange rates for these items. No, the exchange rate is usually the result of some anonymous TP negotiations, between buyers constantly raising their offer, and sellers constantly lowering their price, until they collide and the price is reached.

Economics really doesn’t have anything to do with this game. Items are spawned randomly influencing the value of the currency, Botters mass farm in ways no normal player would and the TP is like having the NYSE without the SEC.

I am inagining that Anet probably has an entire team dedicated towards nothing but tweaking the dynamics to balance the economy.

People are flipping precursors. Nothing you can do about it.

/praying for the day anet makes pres craftable/obtainable via some sort of epic quest

Except craftable pre requirements will probably look something like this:
x250 charged lodestones (2.5g each)
x250 other t6 mat (50s-1g each)
x250 snots of angels (priceless)
x1 thing you obtain not via tp orders

I’m just really hoping this isn’t the case and that they fix other loot in the game as well.

If there wasn’t demand at high price levels the dusk wouldn’t sell. Still is supply and demand.

Is it that Dawn drops in the world/toilet more often than Dusk?

DONT buy precursors!
I was saving up for spark, but not only i cant save enough gold cause price is rising faster but i decided kitten it! Just think about it, why some tool would deserve your hard earned gold for just beeing lucky? I wont give my hard earned money that i saved for month to some random guy who killed mob or dropped yellows in forge… I will just whine about incompetence of anet

there are tooo muuh rich kids buying things with credidcard

i crafted alot legendarys and sold them all for something like 3k+ gold and they always sold in 1-2 days

people who know how to make gold in this game would never buy a legendary from tradepost

and when i see how much $´s people have to pay for 1000 gold on goldsellers (we all get spammed with this info ingame) than no wonder prices go up

2k gold is 130 euro or something?

game is broken and arenanet to slow

Allaraina.8614:

/praying for the day anet makes pres craftable/obtainable via some sort of epic quest

Except craftable pre requirements will probably look something like this:
x250 charged lodestones (2.5g each)
x250 other t6 mat (50s-1g each)
x250 snots of angels (priceless)
x1 thing you obtain not via tp orders

I’m just really hoping this isn’t the case and that they fix other loot in the game as well.

If precursor is craft able, I think large amount of ingredients are not from 80 lvl map in order to encourage players to visit different maps. But it is possible some ingredients may be limited collectible, for example silver doubloon. So I think players who want to craft precursor will cry since some ingredients still manipulated by billionaires.

What happens if you have a single dev in charge of economy?
If said dev is genuinely biased since he likes economy a lot, could ignore this game is about aesthetic items and Killing stuff.

At that point he could transform the game in a finance simulator, where Killing monter, playing war and playing against other players gets NO importance (see rewards).

While simply buying item on the tp can net you hundreds golds and the best and most beautiful items in game.

But this is not even the end of the story.
What if said dev, genuinely attempted to clear the supply of oversupplied items, while never doing anything about scarce and demanded items?

This would be a total paradise for any player that liked GW2 as a financial game since he could have free Pvp in super easy mode, since the risk is extremely low.

At this point you only needs some tools to access the tp without even logging into the game.

And ….we had it.

And sad players could get ridiculous amounts of gold! Way more ANY (100%) other player could ever dream of.

So what could happen if those economy players united to attempt maximizing their profit removing supplies from the market in order to set higher prices?

Possibly that some items would be in their hands, while the system could not even display a pattern about this (what if a “financial” guild of 20 players decide to buy every dusk for example? we would see 20 different buyers ).

And the bad part is the system is extremely gold seller friendly.
Aside any other implication.

So while on a side you get more real money in the short run, you lose players in the mid and long run because your game becomes even more the usual GRINDING mmorpg (see signature).

P.S. You can t realistically ATTEMPT to generate precursors without using the tp in a way or another
And that got even worse since the last patch.

yeah I agree we really need precursor crafting / earning, its a long overdue feature (okey you can stop gasping now)

Galen Grey.4709:

yeah I agree we really need precursor crafting / earning, its a long overdue feature (okey you can stop gasping now)

Yes, it would be nice to have it already. But this is a major goal for a lot of players, and many others are heavily invested in the precursor market (even if they aren’t selling one now, they may be waiting for the right moment to use/sell). Suddenly devaluing everything that tens of thousands of players have been working for would do more harm to the game than waiting until they get it right.

Also, remember that while there may be a way to track the progress, essentially making the precursor acquisition a “Gift” like the Gift of Fortune or Gift of Exploration, it won’t be very much easier or faster than it now. You may have to do things that some players don’t care for, like collect tokens from jumping puzzles or PvP matches, or take on difficult content like reach a certain level in fractals or kill Teq and other bosses until a random item drops.

Some of the players have focused on this process (which has not been explained in any kind of detail yet) as the solution to all their problems with the Legendary process. I believe that when it is finally released, those same players will only refocus their rage and disappointment on this new process because it will probably, in essence, require them to start from Step One while they could have been spending these months concentrating on acquiring gold/items to utilize the TP or MF instead of waiting for this to be released.

So, if you think that obtaining a precursor now is too hard, don’t expect that to change, it may even become a harder grind.

Quick update: there have been several more Dusks listed, including one at 1500 that seems to have sold very quickly. Current low sell price is a little over 1600, while there are five around 2k that no one seems to be interested in. Several buy orders for around 1200 which is what the “normal” price would be.

The new Eternity effects are probably driving demand up, and possibly some speculators are setting themselves up to get burned thinking the prices will stay above 1500.

tolunart.2095:

Masters in economics? Really? You really expect anyone to believe that? I sure don’t, you have demonstrated an incredible lack of knowledge about the game economy that it took me, who never had an economics class in my life, two minutes to research.

^^ this.

tolunart.2095:

Galen Grey.4709:

yeah I agree we really need precursor crafting / earning, its a long overdue feature (okey you can stop gasping now)

Yes, it would be nice to have it already. But this is a major goal for a lot of players, and many others are heavily invested in the precursor market (even if they aren’t selling one now, they may be waiting for the right moment to use/sell). Suddenly devaluing everything that tens of thousands of players have been working for would do more harm to the game than waiting until they get it right.

Also, remember that while there may be a way to track the progress, essentially making the precursor acquisition a “Gift” like the Gift of Fortune or Gift of Exploration, it won’t be very much easier or faster than it now. You may have to do things that some players don’t care for, like collect tokens from jumping puzzles or PvP matches, or take on difficult content like reach a certain level in fractals or kill Teq and other bosses until a random item drops.

Some of the players have focused on this process (which has not been explained in any kind of detail yet) as the solution to all their problems with the Legendary process. I believe that when it is finally released, those same players will only refocus their rage and disappointment on this new process because it will probably, in essence, require them to start from Step One while they could have been spending these months concentrating on acquiring gold/items to utilize the TP or MF instead of waiting for this to be released.

So, if you think that obtaining a precursor now is too hard, don’t expect that to change, it may even become a harder grind.

I completely agree, it should be something that can be worked towards but not something thats trivial to do and I am sure its been taking them so long to do it because they understand that and are trying to come with something up that involves the level work of say world completion but that it will not all boil down to simple grind.

Master of Timespace.2548:

tolunart.2095:

All this means is that someone got greedy and will likely waste a lot of money on listing fees. New Dusks will drop and provide an opportunity for those who are lucky (or persistent with respect to the MF) who can then undercut the greedy seller and bring the prices back in line with the rest of the precursors.

If these guys would always just “lose lots of money on listing fees”, then they wouldn’t be able to buy ’cursors in the first place D;

That’s where the “greedy” part comes in. For example, this morning a buy order for Dusk at 1250 was filled and immediately after the current lowest sell order was placed for 1625. After TP fees the seller will get about 1381, if that is someone “flipping” Dusk they will make a little over 130g for very little effort.

If that seller was greedy and listed for 1900 instead, he would get 1615 and make a bigger profit (365), but it’s more likely that the item would sit there while others came along and undercut him, like the sellers asking 2k for their Dusks. There are several more buy orders and someone selling Dusk today can instantly make what they would have gotten for a sell order yesterday by filling these buy orders, and flippers can make a quick hundred or two gold by taking the buy orders and listing way below the 2k asking prices of the greedy sellers.

The smart TP traders make several smaller trades and watch the gold add up, while the greedy ones want more than the market will allow and sit there watching the prices drop, and end up losing some of their profits by cancelling and relisting.

This is the way the TP is supposed to work, there is no crisis here. Eventually those in a rush to turn Twilight into the upgraded Eternity will drop out and demand will return to normal, and so will prices.

And as always these price surges occur with the supply drops to zero and the first person supplying sets the new starting price that everyone then undercuts. And since Eternity is now sexier, the precursors that are needed to make the two legendaries that are needed to make Eternity have gone up because there’s a run on them.

lol – i dont think this has anything to do with eternity
someone who would spend 2k for an precursor could just spend 3,5k for complete eternity on tradepost^^

people stopped crafting precursors in mystic forge cause they thought soon will be cheap t5 mats from crown pavilion – thats all

tolunart.2095:

Master of Timespace.2548:

tolunart.2095:

All this means is that someone got greedy and will likely waste a lot of money on listing fees. New Dusks will drop and provide an opportunity for those who are lucky (or persistent with respect to the MF) who can then undercut the greedy seller and bring the prices back in line with the rest of the precursors.

If these guys would always just “lose lots of money on listing fees”, then they wouldn’t be able to buy ’cursors in the first place D;

That’s where the “greedy” part comes in. For example, this morning a buy order for Dusk at 1250 was filled and immediately after the current lowest sell order was placed for 1625. After TP fees the seller will get about 1381, if that is someone “flipping” Dusk they will make a little over 130g for very little effort.

If that seller was greedy and listed for 1900 instead, he would get 1615 and make a bigger profit (365), but it’s more likely that the item would sit there while others came along and undercut him, like the sellers asking 2k for their Dusks. There are several more buy orders and someone selling Dusk today can instantly make what they would have gotten for a sell order yesterday by filling these buy orders, and flippers can make a quick hundred or two gold by taking the buy orders and listing way below the 2k asking prices of the greedy sellers.

The smart TP traders make several smaller trades and watch the gold add up, while the greedy ones want more than the market will allow and sit there watching the prices drop, and end up losing some of their profits by cancelling and relisting.

This is the way the TP is supposed to work, there is no crisis here. Eventually those in a rush to turn Twilight into the upgraded Eternity will drop out and demand will return to normal, and so will prices.

the thing you are forgetting is, if you are in the business of selling dusks, whoever made the gangster move of pushing the price higher has currently succeeded, before his move dusk was 1100 sell order and 1049 buy order. now dusks are selling for 1250 buy orders and 1650 sell orders (since now the lowest is 1700.

If your goal is to raise the value of dusk you have to push the price higher than you need it to be. if you set it at 1600, people will drop it down to 1200, if you set it at 2000 people apparently drop it down to 1500+

many people here are again thinking just of the highest selling item, these type of moves are made by people with a high enough supply to profit off the increase in price overall, the 2k item is just the bait.

What it boils down to is they believe eternity is undervalued, and they want dusk to jump in the middle and get the profit. Essentially they want dusk to be the item that benfits from the increase in demand of eternity, because actually making eternity is not a step a middleman/manufacturer can profit from.

Romek.4201:

lol – i dont think this has anything to do with eternity
someone who would spend 2k for an precursor could just spend 3,5k for complete eternity on tradepost^^

people stopped crafting precursors in mystic forge cause they thought soon will be cheap t5 mats from crown pavilion – thats all

eternity has gone up 1000 gold since the patch. i wouldnt expect to be getting eternities at that price much longer. eternity has always been an undervalued item. it should have always costed somewhere in the family of sunrise+twilight. I hear the main reason was poor effects, but that has changed, and the value is bound to go up.

Romek.4201:

lol – i dont think this has anything to do with eternity
someone who would spend 2k for an precursor could just spend 3,5k for complete eternity on tradepost^^

people stopped crafting precursors in mystic forge cause they thought soon will be cheap t5 mats from crown pavilion – thats all

My point was Dusk sold out because Eternity changes leaving a clean slate to hike the price as first seller. There looks to be a run on Dawn with it’s supply dropping and price rising back to the point when it’s price was reset because it was bought out.

Since I’m not seeing this trend with other precursors in the last few days I chalk the run on supply of both weapons to those making Eternity.

anyhow precursor/legendaries are becoming more and more of a rich mans game only. and even through all the nerfs to gold that have happened recently, the prices continue to rise.

phys.7689:

anyhow precursor/legendaries are becoming more and more of a rich mans game only. and even through all the nerfs to gold that have happened recently, the prices continue to rise.

With the recent change to the wardrobe system, the wealthy should have legendary saturation soon and will have no interest in acquiring multiple copies of legendaries. When this happens, the prices should fall to match the offers made by those who still want a legendary.

mtpelion.4562:

phys.7689:

anyhow precursor/legendaries are becoming more and more of a rich mans game only. and even through all the nerfs to gold that have happened recently, the prices continue to rise.

With the recent change to the wardrobe system, the wealthy should have legendary saturation soon and will have no interest in acquiring multiple copies of legendaries. When this happens, the prices should fall to match the offers made by those who still want a legendary.

i think the wealthy is a lot larger subset than you think it is, keep in mind even amongst the wealthy, there werent too many duplicates. And that class has been sustaining a steady increase in precursor value for 18 months.

but, anet has been working on a precursor hunt, but they really would have to get it right. Which i honestly doubt, because its a pretty complex issue.

And I thought that when I paid 650 for dusk back in the day was a ripoff …

~ glances at my Eternity ~

~ glances back at thread ~

pheeeeeew good times :-)

there are 6 different dust we can trade, which one?