Guild Wars 2

tolunart.2095:

Beyond that, random distribution of loot has its place, and is a tradition going back to the first RPG, Dungeons and Dragons. It provides incentive to explore the world and try different things, rather than simply stand on a hill and kill Monster X over and over until you collect enough gold and loot to satisfy your goals.

For example, if I need 100 basilisk fangs to complete the Sword of Awesomeness, and every basilisk I kill drops a fang, then all I have to do is go to where they spawn and keep killing basilisks until I get enough fangs.

But if I need 100 glowing rubies, which is a rare drop from many different creatures, I have a choice of regions to explore in order to find enemies that drop them, and I am motivated to continue exploring and killing enemies because I can find the rubies faster that way than waiting for the same six creatures to respawn.

I honestly don’t understand most of the complaints people have about this game. Without kill-stealing, node-stealing, quest-stealing, with open world events and no loot rolls, I’ve had a better experience in this game than any other MMO. Is it really that wonderful to spend one night every week for months chasing after a rare drop from a raid boss, only to lose the roll and see someone else walk away with your prize?

Yeah the problem using your example would ve if 60% of the supply of basilisk fangs were gotten by random from any monster/treasure in the game.

Then the value isn’t determiNed by people who purposely supply basilisk fang, but by all the people who got it randomly.

As for salvaging, most of those drops exist to be salvaged, and its random when that drops, for example a lot of mithril is created from random loot drops whose main purpose is to be salvaged

tolunart.2095:

I was responding to Phys:

“i think the economy overall would be better if more items were mostly provided by intention rather than random chance”

…

“Crafting mats primarily from loot bags/chests teir 5s and 6
Lodestonea from champ bags and boss chests
Ecto from rare drops which primarily from random
Sigils and runes primarily from random drops or forge”

I’ll bite on this. I think the key word here is byproduct

Crafting mats from bags are byproducts. The ones from salvaging are arguably intended, but more or less a byproduct with the intent being luck points and/or getting more on average than vendoring.

Lodestones are a byproduct of open bags (again, for the expectation of profit of some form, not the lodestones)

I have to agree with you that ectos are definitely intended salvages from rares (with exotics they are usually byproducts, but so many more ectos come from rares that this doens’t matter) and the crafting mats and upgrade components are the real byproducts.

As far as intended vs random runes, I’ll just leave Strength runes (random) vs Scholar runes (intended) out there for you and everyone else to decide. Even though the price for both is fairly stable, I’m not sure prices of the former are what we should have in a (mostly) horizontal progression game.

Everything covered above except Strength runes and ectos are byproducts of something else. I have already shared my opinion on Strength runes. The nature of ectos, on the other hand, may not be a bad thing because of the sheer volume and availability. The use of them in just about everything makes them effectively another currency.

Going back to ignoring you now.

I would appreciate it, if the alternative is more strawmen.

If you look at the game as a whole, there are several tweaks to the traditional MMO that change the way we interact with the game.

For example, in a traditional MMO, if five random strangers are wandering the open world and come upon a gathering node at the same time, the first one who clicks it gets the materials, the rest get nothing. In GW2, all five can harvest the node. This means that crafting mats accumulate much faster than players are used to in games like Rift and WoW.

Likewise, if these five random strangers were to attack the same creature, the first one to “tag” it gets the XP and a chance for loot drops – the rest get nothing. In GW2, all five get the full amount of XP and each gets his own loot roll. In Rift, even if the five were grouped together, the XP would be divided and only one would get loot. If something valuable dropped, they would have to compete with each other (“need vs. greed”) to see who got it. Those kinds of competitive systems do not exist here.

Also, the TP is not tied to a specific server, but covers the entire game community (the Chinese version is run by another company and didn’t exist until recently, so it doesn’t count for purposes of this example). So you have a situation where each player interacts with the game world separately, collecting XP and loot independently of other players, and the TP collects millions of streams of incoming items and materials into a single shared pool from which everyone can attempt to draw out what he needs and wants.

So, it’s not that the loot system is broken, or unfair, or there isn’t enough loot dropping to make the game worthwhile. It’s very much the opposite, there is a much greater flow of loot than you find in other games, where players compete with each other even in the PvE environment for their riches. This system is far more fair than anything that has come before, and I think that is the problem. Players expect an MMO to work like WoW or whatever game they are familiar with, instead of approaching GW2 as its own unique entity.

And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.

Behellagh.1468:

And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.

Obviously, the cartel wants to distract players before making the minimum price 2500g next week.

tolunart.2095:

Behellagh.1468:

And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.

Obviously, the cartel wants to distract players before making the minimum price 2500g next week.

Or they just lost all their gold on bad investments.

tolunart.2095:

Behellagh.1468:

And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.

Obviously, the cartel wants to distract players before making the minimum price 2500g next week.

100 gold increase in one week is pretty big dif. About 8-9%
That’s actually really sizable

If you time it right, every day you can buy 1200g worth of crafting mats and sell it for a 15% profit. It’s not all that impressive, especially considering someone tried to double the price and got burned.

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

Behellagh.1468:

And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.

Obviously, the cartel wants to distract players before making the minimum price 2500g next week.

100 gold increase in one week is pretty big dif. About 8-9%
That’s actually really sizable

… I’m almost speechless. Yes, thinly traded commodities can be moved if you’re willing to burn money … but here I don’t think there’s any evidence that the person or people trying to flip up to 2k gold did anything but lose money. Given the 15% cut the trading post takes from sales, 8-9% looks like a loss — and there’s no guarantee that it will stay up there. (As I said to you in another thread, this looks like a demand shock — I’d still bet on prices falling below their current values within 3 months, even without intervention.)

Buying all the supply and re-listing at +66% (1200 → 2000) is a gamble that the trading range (and it is a range, because it’s thinly traded but any gap much over 15% will be filled by flipping) will move. If you’re right, you make money not via manipulation but by anticipating that demand and supply are not yet in equilibrium.

There are some people with lots of money in the game, but
(1) they generally didn’t get rich by squandering it attempting to manipulate markets — John Smith has presented very good evidence of this
(2) I think they’re not the majority of the wealth in the economy (perhaps unlike RL), for various reasons

The fantasies of TP barons manipulating the market are … odd. If you’re interested in math and science — the simplest counter argument is Occam’s Razor. There are simpler explanations which fit the facts at least as well (generally better), so there’s no need to invent these TP barons to explain the movement of the market.

tolunart.2095:

If you time it right, every day you can buy 1200g worth of crafting mats and sell it for a 15% profit. It’s not all that impressive, especially considering someone tried to double the price and got burned.

8-9% is the tail end of the curve, the big money was made with all the dusks that sold for 1500+ i noticed quite a few. which is like 25% profit, which is pretty hard to get at that scale without going past the limits of that specific market.

for example i can place an order for iron ore, and due to price fluctuations, i can get it 10-15% cheaper, but in one day i wont be able to fill 1000 gold worth at 10-15% cheaper. not to mention i would have to set 400 buy orders, then set 400 sell orders, if each one takes 10 seconds that would be 132 minutes of time, doing a fairly monotonous task.

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

Behellagh.1468:

And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.

Obviously, the cartel wants to distract players before making the minimum price 2500g next week.

100 gold increase in one week is pretty big dif. About 8-9%
That’s actually really sizable

And my point was Dusk was 1200g, shot to 2000g and the price has decayed back down to 1295g (now 1290g) in only 3 days. What will it be in a week? Back down to 1200g or below?

The thread was started because someone was outraged that there was a 67% price spike and how this was the end times. That it was a sign of out of control inflation (inflation doesn’t happen overnight) with precursors. Has there been inflation? Yes, a year ago Dusk was 625g range with a supply of 22. The 1290g is with a supply of 11 now. But as more go on sale, sellers will match or undercut the low sell price and the sell price will fall. High bids will fall to allow a flip margin which increases the amount available to undercut.

But if supply and price stabilizes, that means that’s the price the market can now bear.

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

If you time it right, every day you can buy 1200g worth of crafting mats and sell it for a 15% profit. It’s not all that impressive, especially considering someone tried to double the price and got burned.

8-9% is the tail end of the curve, the big money was made with all the dusks that sold for 1500+ i noticed quite a few. which is like 25% profit, which is pretty hard to get at that scale without going past the limits of that specific market.

for example i can place an order for iron ore, and due to price fluctuations, i can get it 10-15% cheaper, but in one day i wont be able to fill 1000 gold worth at 10-15% cheaper. not to mention i would have to set 400 buy orders, then set 400 sell orders, if each one takes 10 seconds that would be 132 minutes of time, doing a fairly monotonous task.

The dusks which sold around 1500 were almost certainly sold by someone other than the person who placed 3 sell orders at 2000g (at a cost of 100g/each). Have you ever tried to sell high ticket items? Undercutting yourself substantially is hard to do (psychologically) because it acknowledges that the high listings were wasted listing fees.

Yes some people made money … but all the data we have suggests that it was the people who got Dusk drops when someone tried to manipulate the market. Chances are most of them aren’t your “TP Barons.” And there’s no debt — the people who paid 1500g had the 1500g to pay, they didn’t go into soul-crushing debt to do it.

I could liquidate various things and raise that much if I decided that I really wanted to (I do some trading, I’ve played far too much, and in the past I have transferred cash to gems to gold when I wanted something but didn’t want to grind it — still no regrets there). I’d feel dumb if I’d bought at the peak … but I wouldn’t blame anyone but myself.

linuxotaku.4731:

phys.7689:

tolunart.2095:

If you time it right, every day you can buy 1200g worth of crafting mats and sell it for a 15% profit. It’s not all that impressive, especially considering someone tried to double the price and got burned.

8-9% is the tail end of the curve, the big money was made with all the dusks that sold for 1500+ i noticed quite a few. which is like 25% profit, which is pretty hard to get at that scale without going past the limits of that specific market.

for example i can place an order for iron ore, and due to price fluctuations, i can get it 10-15% cheaper, but in one day i wont be able to fill 1000 gold worth at 10-15% cheaper. not to mention i would have to set 400 buy orders, then set 400 sell orders, if each one takes 10 seconds that would be 132 minutes of time, doing a fairly monotonous task.

The dusks which sold around 1500 were almost certainly sold by someone other than the person who placed 3 sell orders at 2000g (at a cost of 100g/each). Have you ever tried to sell high ticket items? Undercutting yourself substantially is hard to do (psychologically) because it acknowledges that the high listings were wasted listing fees.

Yes some people made money … but all the data we have suggests that it was the people who got Dusk drops when someone tried to manipulate the market. Chances are most of them aren’t your “TP Barons.” And there’s no debt — the people who paid 1500g had the 1500g to pay, they didn’t go into soul-crushing debt to do it.

I could liquidate various things and raise that much if I decided that I really wanted to (I do some trading, I’ve played far too much, and in the past I have transferred cash to gems to gold when I wanted something but didn’t want to grind it — still no regrets there). I’d feel dumb if I’d bought at the peak … but I wouldn’t blame anyone but myself.

ehh i dunno about that, im not the only one who has noticed when these things happen the person who sets the high price rarely sell it at that price, and this isnt ancient history, it happened within i think a month ago. Anyone who looks at history will see that the people who sell after that big price make the big money (short term anyhow, usually even the expensive ones sell eventually when the price goes)

it is possible of course someone made this big error, which then allowed a whole lot of other people to profit, but i just doubt that someone/group who made huge money would make such a shortsighted move without a plan.

tolunart.2095:

No one has proven Santa Claus exists, but no one has disproven it either.

Simple proof: I was some months in a TP guild, where we did hardly anything else than buying and selling – and usually 4 – 5 players “shared” one niche (‘cause for one it’s harder to e. g. watch the market all the time). Since many go for listed price, it was an easy way to triple your money in a short time.

tolunart.2095:

Legendaries are made through the MF, they don’t drop randomly.

But the pre’s not – they are completely random. And since I started playing, I have gotten mine and seen people getting them every possible way as mentioned in the wiki.

phys.7689:

not to mention i would have to set 400 buy orders, then set 400 sell orders, if each one takes 10 seconds that would be 132 minutes of time, doing a fairly monotonous task.

Sure you can say it’s boring and repetetive – but since it’s kinda the same I do in RL for a living, it was kinda entertaining and one reason, why I stopped doing it.

There is also the bit that eventually prices will creep back up and those listed at 2k will sell for that 2k. Think of all the items players have sitting for sale because there is zero carrying costs outside of OC. Atm the listing fees for those items are not realized until either the items sell or are removed.

Imo there should be an associated carrying cost with storing items on the tp. In rl it is part of the reason why middlemen add value.

Well there are 8 available

2000g
1999.9999g
1999.9998g
1999.9997g
1549g
1500g
1450.0397g
1300g

While it’s true there is no cost to keep that 2000g one on the market, the list does show another reason why prices spike when supply gets low. Over priced items get exposed.

Major Rune of the Scholar is currently around 20s. There are 5 at 4.9957g and 20 others 1g and over and another 21 over 99s. If the current supply drops in half, the price will be over 60s. All of that is already set up in the sell orders. Drop supply by 116, price triples. It’s not inflation. Maybe speculation. Maybe storage. Maybe price guesses in the early days of the TP since there was no info about what a good price would be. Who knows. But it’s there, just waiting for a run on supply.

Essence Snow.3194:

There is also the bit that eventually prices will creep back up and those listed at 2k will sell for that 2k. Think of all the items players have sitting for sale because there is zero carrying costs outside of OC. Atm the listing fees for those items are not realized until either the items sell or are removed.
.

Those four Dusks sitting at 2k could have been sold for 1600 immediately, then four more bought for 1200 and sold for 1500-1600 again, and repeated several times until the hype died down and things stabilized again.

So instead of making a few thousand gold, someone(s) get to watch his investments sit there collecting dust while he helps smarter players make money.

Behellagh.1468:

Well there are 8 available

2000g
1999.9999g
1999.9998g
1999.9997g
1549g
1500g
1450.0397g
1300g

While it’s true there is no cost to keep that 2000g one on the market, the list does show another reason why prices spike when supply gets low. Over priced items get exposed.

Major Rune of the Scholar is currently around 20s. There are 5 at 4.9957g and 20 others 1g and over and another 21 over 99s. If the current supply drops in half, the price will be over 60s. All of that is already set up in the sell orders. Drop supply by 116, price triples. It’s not inflation. Maybe speculation. Maybe storage. Maybe price guesses in the early days of the TP since there was no info about what a good price would be. Who knows. But it’s there, just waiting for a run on supply.

yeah but its not just that the price is exposed, its that they sell. some one who decides to store/invest his dusk at 1000 G a couple months ago, eventually people did pay that price. So if dusk every reaches 2000, those other dusks will sell. at a 100% profit, So its not exactly a loss.

though, it is not a liquid asset.
anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.
unless it is strictly meant to be storage. but ehhh why do that when the item sold out

Didn’t someone mention something recently about opportunity costs?

phys.7689:

anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.

I still wonder how you can believe that it was a bunch of people working together.
The 3 remaining dusks didnt all sell at once, it actually took 5 hours (from 1pm to 6 pm on may 21st) for them to vanish from the tp.

tolunart.2095:

Essence Snow.3194:

There is also the bit that eventually prices will creep back up and those listed at 2k will sell for that 2k. Think of all the items players have sitting for sale because there is zero carrying costs outside of OC. Atm the listing fees for those items are not realized until either the items sell or are removed.
.

Those four Dusks sitting at 2k could have been sold for 1600 immediately, then four more bought for 1200 and sold for 1500-1600 again, and repeated several times until the hype died down and things stabilized again.

So instead of making a few thousand gold, someone(s) get to watch his investments sit there collecting dust while he helps smarter players make money.

but they wouldnt have gone for 1600 gold if he didnt put the high price at 2000, If he put the price at 1600, then cutters would have went for 1300. If it wasnt for the big move, prices would have slowly adapted to demand of the course of weeks. many people would have been selling for 1200 or less because thats the most they thought they could get for it.

the 2k opened the door for profit from from flipping as well, which wasnt really an option before this, the buy and sell price was too close. Which perhaps is a sign that people would be willing to pay more.

Conspiracy theories… yawn. This is not how you petition for membership in Tinfoil [HATS].

Someone made some cash flipping dyes and crafting mats at the right time, and thought he was a TP Mastermind. So he got greedy, tried to corner the Dusk market, and all that happened was he created opportunities for flippers to sell Dusks to people who are too impatient to research the price history.

Not that JS is going to say something either way, but if he wanted to prove/disprove your cartel theory, he could look up the remaining Dusks and tell us whether the top 4 are from the same seller or two+ individuals, as well as confirming whether any of those sellers also sold the lower priced Dusks.

Because he has, like, real data and not just assumptions and speculations to work with. If something shady was going on, he would know about it, and can take action against it.

My guess is that it’s one or two individuals (not sure when the fourth Dusk was listed at 2k, I only saw three the other day), and that they invested their whole nest egg into failed TP manipulations.

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.

I still wonder how you can believe that it was a bunch of people working together.
The 3 remaining dusks didnt all sell at once, it actually took 5 hours (from 1pm to 6 pm on may 21st) for them to vanish from the tp.

i have no idea if the last ones were bought out as a scheme, i more think the setting of the new price was a conscious decsion.

but as far as syndicates go, they generally try to hide their actions, even if the actions are legal. Not saying this is what happened in this case, truth is, if dusk is down to a supply of 3, its a pretty good sign that its selling faster than its being supplied, and its may be an item whose value will increase.

but the setting of the new price is different, any time you set a new price you are sort of defining the market, especially in a market whose item value is extremely hard to determine.
If i had 1 dusk, i wouldnt want to be the first guy to set the price, because its almost guaranteed to get undercut
if i had 10 or 20, i might try to push the value, because i can still profit if people try to meet in the middle of old and new price, which is what happened the last two times the supply disappeared

when they set it at 1500, from 900 it ended up meeting around 1200-1100. when they set it at 2000 from 1100 it ended up meating at 1400-1600.

so far it seems to follow this pattern.

Except that twice now JS has confirmed that nearly every Dusk being sold is coming from a different individual. There is no one with 20 Dusks sitting in his inventory, controlling the prices by listing one at an unreasonably high price and undercutting himself to sell a dozen.

phys.7689:

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.

I still wonder how you can believe that it was a bunch of people working together.
The 3 remaining dusks didnt all sell at once, it actually took 5 hours (from 1pm to 6 pm on may 21st) for them to vanish from the tp.

i have no idea if the last ones were bought out as a scheme, i more think the setting of the new price was a conscious decsion.

but as far as syndicates go, they generally try to hide their actions, even if the actions are legal. Not saying this is what happened in this case, truth is, if dusk is down to a supply of 3, its a pretty good sign that its selling faster than its being supplied, and its may be an item whose value will increase.

but the setting of the new price is different, any time you set a new price you are sort of defining the market, especially in a market whose item value is extremely hard to determine.
If i had 1 dusk, i wouldnt want to be the first guy to set the price, because its almost guaranteed to get undercut
if i had 10 or 20, i might try to push the value, because i can still profit if people try to meet in the middle of old and new price, which is what happened the last two times the supply disappeared

when they set it at 1500, from 900 it ended up meeting around 1200-1100. when they set it at 2000 from 1100 it ended up meating at 1400-1600.

so far it seems to follow this pattern.

The same pattern of listings could have come from individual sellers that didnt work as a group.

tolunart.2095:

Conspiracy theories… yawn. This is not how you petition for membership in Tinfoil [HATS].

Someone made some cash flipping dyes and crafting mats at the right time, and thought he was a TP Mastermind. So he got greedy, tried to corner the Dusk market, and all that happened was he created opportunities for flippers to sell Dusks to people who are too impatient to research the price history.

Not that JS is going to say something either way, but if he wanted to prove/disprove your cartel theory, he could look up the remaining Dusks and tell us whether the top 4 are from the same seller or two+ individuals, as well as confirming whether any of those sellers also sold the lower priced Dusks.

Because he has, like, real data and not just assumptions and speculations to work with. If something shady was going on, he would know about it, and can take action against it.

My guess is that it’s one or two individuals (not sure when the fourth Dusk was listed at 2k, I only saw three the other day), and that they invested their whole nest egg into failed TP manipulations.

yes but JS would not want to confirm that people have this type of power, even if he wanted to do something about it. (we dont know that he does, because at the end of the day it only works if the market can bear the cost)

also if you are using a cartel, you would use multiple unique users. I know for a fact that some groups have played around with precursors. (by groups i mean multiple people working together, and having different people sell and buy things) however, that was sometime ago, and just because they were trying it does not mean it was successful, i also dont know if it was short term or long term goals.

So essentially i know these people exist, and make attempts, i dont know if they succeed, or how often they try.

however, i am not smarter than everyone else, no idea is orginal, chances are if one can see a pattern then other people can as well, or they soon will. The amount of people hustling the TP is extremely large, they will find any way to profit, for that is the goal of their gameplay.

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

Wanze.8410:

phys.7689:

anyhow the key here is a whole bunch of people have been able to sell at increased rates due to those initial dudes testing the market, i somehow doubt they would test it without being ready to profit from that test.

I still wonder how you can believe that it was a bunch of people working together.
The 3 remaining dusks didnt all sell at once, it actually took 5 hours (from 1pm to 6 pm on may 21st) for them to vanish from the tp.

i have no idea if the last ones were bought out as a scheme, i more think the setting of the new price was a conscious decsion.

but as far as syndicates go, they generally try to hide their actions, even if the actions are legal. Not saying this is what happened in this case, truth is, if dusk is down to a supply of 3, its a pretty good sign that its selling faster than its being supplied, and its may be an item whose value will increase.

but the setting of the new price is different, any time you set a new price you are sort of defining the market, especially in a market whose item value is extremely hard to determine.
If i had 1 dusk, i wouldnt want to be the first guy to set the price, because its almost guaranteed to get undercut
if i had 10 or 20, i might try to push the value, because i can still profit if people try to meet in the middle of old and new price, which is what happened the last two times the supply disappeared

when they set it at 1500, from 900 it ended up meeting around 1200-1100. when they set it at 2000 from 1100 it ended up meating at 1400-1600.

so far it seems to follow this pattern.

The same pattern of listings could have come from individual sellers that didnt work as a group.

i am not stating i am certain, I am stating it is a valid possibility. Many things happen in large systems, some of it is by “fate” or the natural tendencies of the system, and some of it is by design.

It is truely hard to say if this is the case, but based on the system, once i saw 3 dusks, this was what i expected would happen soon, the big surprise was how ballsy the intial guys were. And then somebody profitted big, if this is the new market value, it would have taken like 1-2 weeks to slowly raise to 1500-1600, if it isnt the new market value, some people were able to get a value that wouldnt have happened for months.

So perhaps people were lucky following a ballsy fool, or perhaps the ballsy fools were making a calculated move.

Truth is we will never know. JS could probably pull some data that would give him a better idea of the truth, but i highly doubt he would share it with us. Information of any sort is power

So JS is lying and hiding the actions of a cartel of evil TP barons because of stuff.

This reminds me of the X-Files marathons they’ve been having on Chiller. Mulder keeps uncovering evidence of alien conspiracies and the Smoking Man laughs as he burns the files. Go ahead and believe whatever you want, it’s quite amusing.

phys.7689:

It is truely hard to say if this is the case, but based on the system, once i saw 3 dusks, this was what i expected would happen soon, the big surprise was how ballsy the intial guys were. And then somebody profitted big, if this is the new market value, it would have taken like 1-2 weeks to slowly raise to 1500-1600, if it isnt the new market value, some people were able to get a value that wouldnt have happened for months.

If it were the actions of three individuals working together, why didn’t they list one Dusk at 2k and the other two at lower prices so they look like a deal and sold quickly? What’s the point in throwing away three listing fees for something that isn’t going to sell for weeks or months, if ever?

Also, as the prices dropped back down to normal, flippers buying Dusk at 1200 to flip end up holding items they paid too much for, when the new price settles at 1250 they lose money after listing fees.

These are not the actions of a smart and well-organized group, unless their intent was to waste a lot of time and money.

tolunart.2095:

Except that twice now JS has confirmed that nearly every Dusk being sold is coming from a different individual. There is no one with 20 Dusks sitting in his inventory, controlling the prices by listing one at an unreasonably high price and undercutting himself to sell a dozen.

it would be a syndicate, this would mean a group of people working together, IE it doesnt have to be the same dude

also, 4 of the ones sold were not unique, and this info was still pretty early in the event. who knows what the data would look like now.

JS shares the information he chooses to share, for whenever it strikes his fancy, the amount of information he gives is probably not even .01% of the amount of information he could get, or monitors. Also, just because something happens doesnt mean he sees it as a problem.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

It is truely hard to say if this is the case, but based on the system, once i saw 3 dusks, this was what i expected would happen soon, the big surprise was how ballsy the intial guys were. And then somebody profitted big, if this is the new market value, it would have taken like 1-2 weeks to slowly raise to 1500-1600, if it isnt the new market value, some people were able to get a value that wouldnt have happened for months.

If it were the actions of three individuals working together, why didn’t they list one Dusk at 2k and the other two at lower prices so they look like a deal and sold quickly? What’s the point in throwing away three listing fees for something that isn’t going to sell for weeks or months, if ever?

Also, as the prices dropped back down to normal, flippers buying Dusk at 1200 to flip end up holding items they paid too much for, when the new price settles at 1250 they lose money after listing fees.

These are not the actions of a smart and well-organized group, unless their intent was to waste a lot of time and money.

it is possible they only listed 1 at 2k , and the other ones were people just following his lead with an undercut, its also possible that they decided 3 is more plausible as a baseline for the high price. while one is a freak occurence, if 3/4 are priced at 2k, now it seems that may be a real price.

even now the market is uncertain, the real price is still somewhat up for grabs. supply is staying pretty low

also note, they have not been pulled, the loss is only 100g, if they were quick buck bad gamblers, its likely that at least 1 or 2 would have pulled out.

tolunart.2095:

So JS is lying and hiding the actions of a cartel of evil TP barons because of stuff.

This reminds me of the X-Files marathons they’ve been having on Chiller. Mulder keeps uncovering evidence of alien conspiracies and the Smoking Man laughs as he burns the files. Go ahead and believe whatever you want, it’s quite amusing.

Yes of course, when a person is making ridiculous theories and they don’t pan out, they just make up even more ridiculous theories as corrections to the previous one. The Illuminati are buying up all precursors to dominate the GW2 online world. It’s just the start for complete world domination.

phys.7689:

JS shares the information he chooses to share, for whenever it strikes his fancy, the amount of information he gives is probably not even .01% of the amount of information he could get, or monitors. Also, just because something happens doesnt mean he sees it as a problem.

He is under no obligation to give out any info, and what he has access to is mostly the property of Anet, it’s not his decision to share it or not. He is easily the most open and honest of the Devs from what I’ve seen, who backs up what he says with numbers whenever possible. Even when it’s easier just to ignore the complaints.

You have nothing to back up your accusations but fantasies.

chaos gun manip right now. 2 on the tp for 1500g each xD

I think someone was manipulating T5 leather. I was 25c and now 20c … I smell conspiracy. Must be that ‘T5 Leather baron’ org I see running around.

tolunart.2095:

phys.7689:

JS shares the information he chooses to share, for whenever it strikes his fancy, the amount of information he gives is probably not even .01% of the amount of information he could get, or monitors. Also, just because something happens doesnt mean he sees it as a problem.

He is under no obligation to give out any info, and what he has access to is mostly the property of Anet, it’s not his decision to share it or not. He is easily the most open and honest of the Devs from what I’ve seen, who backs up what he says with numbers whenever possible. Even when it’s easier just to ignore the complaints.

You have nothing to back up your accusations but fantasies.

i have made no accusations, and i also said exactly the same thing you said. JS shares what he wishes to share, nothing more nothing less. I also said that any info he shares is powerful information, and thus is probably given rarely.

Why do you always get so combative, i am not trying to battle you here, I am not accusing anyone of anythings. Everything we discuss here is unproven, your beliefs are just as unproven as mines. We can only observe the data on gwspidy, and the TP, and make predictions and guesses.

They are all predictions and guesses.

also as far as the super anti conspiracy thing.
conspiracies are common, and expected, in fact consipiracies and collusion are highly likely to occur. Collusion or conspiracies, are not the easter bunny, they are a common occurence. If Gw2 somehow has none, they would be the exception, not the rule. In fact i have already told you i know for a fact that GW2 cabals exist. How effective they are is another matter i have no data on.

also keep in mind what you may think is impossible and unlikely a crazy conspiracy, is sometimes the truth.
a couple years ago if i told people here that the government was spending millions and billions of dollars gathering every useless pointless email/im/net traffic into a mass data, and combing through it with more expensive man hours, and algorithms, and using it identify and act against people they deem dangerous, people would have told me i was a nut job.

Just because you cant prove something doesnt mean its false, or unreasonable, it just means you cant prove it. A great number of things you deal with in life, you will never prove, or dont have the ability to prove, it doesnt mean none of it exists.

Sorry, but you are thinking that far too complex. Agree with your mates on which price you want to sell, clear the market and a little bit above that (easier with pretty rare stuff like pre’s), open with an overpriced item, wait for others to undercut, then put your offers and try to raise the listing and the bid price this way.

You forget, that if you want to make money with TP you “Don’t buy at the peak, you buy when it’s weak.” – means: you buy with your mates dusk for 700 – 800 G / bid and start, when you got like 60 – 70+. The goal isn’t to sell them for 2k each, it is to raise the average price 20 – 40 %, so you can sell yours. Since the “flow” of pre’s is pretty steady and prices stay more or less on the “raised level”, because there will always be “strikebreakers” who’ll pay the price, it’s not that risky at all.

If you need a RL example for that: look at the food speculation. You easily can raise prices for stuff without big changes in demand and supply and make a pretty good cut.

phys.7689:

Why do you always get so combative,…

I know, I know… I keep telling myself not to feed the trolls, but they look so cute when they’re begging for attention…

illo.5106:

Sorry, but you are thinking that far too complex. Agree with your mates on which price you want to sell, clear the market and a little bit above that (easier with pretty rare stuff like pre’s), open with an overpriced item, wait for others to undercut, then put your offers and try to raise the listing and the bid price this way.

You forget, that if you want to make money with TP you “Don’t buy at the peak, you buy when it’s weak.” – means: you buy with your mates dusk for 700 – 800 G / bid and start, when you got like 60 – 70+. The goal isn’t to sell them for 2k each, it is to raise the average price 20 – 40 %, so you can sell yours. Since the “flow” of pre’s is pretty steady and prices stay more or less on the “raised level”, because there will always be “strikebreakers” who’ll pay the price, it’s not that risky at all.

If you need a RL example for that: look at the food speculation. You easily can raise prices for stuff without big changes in demand and supply and make a pretty good cut.

This only works when there’s sufficient demand above 700-800g (if not, those trying to manipulate the price will lose more than they make). When there is, the price hasn’t reached an equilibrium point in terms of supply/demand, and you’re leading where the market would have gone eventually. If there isn’t sufficient demand at the higher price, then you’ll spend more money propping up the price than you’ll make unloading items at the higher price.

This particular example — whether it was one or several trying to flip Dusks — looks like more evidence that manipulating markets isn’t an easy way to make money.

From your description, the only people making money are those who bought Dusks at 700-800g … and they were already holding paper profits, since the price had already risen to 1150g.

The cartel! Is it me?!

Mbelch.9028:

The cartel! Is it me?!

Forget about Eternity, that rage is all over and done with.
Its those Charged Slivers that are hot right now, to craft minor sigils of speed.

Always behind the game I am.

Mbelch.9028:

Always behind the game I am.

Well, if you had Minor Sigil of Speed, just like all those low level key farmers, you wouldnt be behind so much.

The market knows best. Trust the market.

Lulz.

Mbelch.9028:

The cartel! Is it me?!

That photo … if you believe it, then it’s easy to believe in people manipulating the market.

But … unless there’s some UI which I don’t know — you can only hold 160 items in inventory, and you can’t sell items not in inventory (e.g. in your bank), which would make it difficult to see a sell screen offering to let you sell 84 Eternitys and 113 Cavalier’s Ceremonial Tridents unless you’ve done some doctoring.

linuxotaku.4731:

Mbelch.9028:

The cartel! Is it me?!

That photo … if you believe it, then it’s easy to believe in people manipulating the market.

But … unless there’s some UI which I don’t know — you can only hold 160 items in inventory, and you can’t sell items not in inventory (e.g. in your bank), which would make it difficult to see a sell screen offering to let you sell 84 Eternitys and 113 Cavalier’s Ceremonial Tridents unless you’ve done some doctoring.

It was a common bug a couple of weeks ago. Multiple people reported to have these items show up in the sell tab, when they opened the tp. However, they couldnt sell those items.

linuxotaku.4731:

This only works when there’s sufficient demand above 700-800g (if not, those trying to manipulate the price will lose more than they make).

There’ll be always demand, because it’s a pre and due to the often unfair progress of getting it. And you will always find someone willing to pay the actual price, so they keep the bidding price getting up and on the raised level. Maybe those who are buying out of fear that it can be even more expensive next week – or those, who simply don’t care if it’s 100 G more or less.

linuxotaku.4731:

This particular example — whether it was one or several trying to flip Dusks — looks like more evidence that manipulating markets isn’t an easy way to make money.

Making up to 1000G+ only with this ONE niche (Dusk) is pretty easy in my eyes – just think, how much time and effort it costs to get this amount of gold the “common” way.

Wanze.8410:

linuxotaku.4731:

Mbelch.9028:

The cartel! Is it me?!

That photo … if you believe it, then it’s easy to believe in people manipulating the market.

But … unless there’s some UI which I don’t know — you can only hold 160 items in inventory, and you can’t sell items not in inventory (e.g. in your bank), which would make it difficult to see a sell screen offering to let you sell 84 Eternitys and 113 Cavalier’s Ceremonial Tridents unless you’ve done some doctoring.

It was a common bug a couple of weeks ago. Multiple people reported to have these items show up in the sell tab, when they opened the tp. However, they couldnt sell those items.

Haha ding ding ding!

illo.5106:

linuxotaku.4731:

This only works when there’s sufficient demand above 700-800g (if not, those trying to manipulate the price will lose more than they make).

There’ll be always demand, because it’s a pre and due to the often unfair progress of getting it. And you will always find someone willing to pay the actual price, so they keep the bidding price getting up and on the raised level. Maybe those who are buying out of fear that it can be even more expensive next week – or those, who simply don’t care if it’s 100 G more or less.

linuxotaku.4731:

This particular example — whether it was one or several trying to flip Dusks — looks like more evidence that manipulating markets isn’t an easy way to make money.

Making up to 1000G+ only with this ONE niche (Dusk) is pretty easy in my eyes – just think, how much time and effort it costs to get this amount of gold the “common” way.

In order to make 1000g+ profit just with Dusk, you need 10000g+ initial investment in the first place. If you consider the high initial investment, there are better ones out there, that make you faster profit.

Obtena.7952:

I think someone was manipulating T5 leather. I was 25c and now 20c … I smell conspiracy. Must be that ‘T5 Leather baron’ org I see running around.

Thick Leather Incorporated was bought by Vol Mutual Funds several months back and liquidated all assets before the price drop.

However, Vol Mutual Funds believes Thick Leather market will be a steady investment option in a few months.