Guild Wars 2

The ridiculous price of the precious precursor has skyrocketed beyond unimaginable costs. Arenet, you need to get things together and release your new crafting system soon. The legendary gold grind process is really getting dull.

Give it 3 days. This up to the minute flipping out is what the speculator’s are hoping for. Stop playing into their hands.

Nike.2631:

Give it 3 days. This up to the minute flipping out is what the speculator’s are hoping for. Stop playing into their hands.

Yeah, I know. Still, the ridiculous methods of obtaining a precursor falls entirely in favor of those who flips it. Just a few days ago, over half of the dusk disappeared off the tp. It isn’t a surprise someone’s stacking to flip.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Dusk-sold-out-1-Left/first

Same with Spark.

I don’t get why ANet is going to release the improvement of legendaries first and the new crafting system of the precursors second. I thought the whole reason for making precursors craftable was to allow everybody getting a legendary without being dependent on a few people who have the luck of finding it or the money trading them and getting even more money which they obviously don’t seem to need.

After the prices of the precursors have doubled (or even more), i think i have no other choice than waiting for the patch witch will allow me to craft my precursor myself. I just hope ANet doesn’t let us wait too long for the necessary patch and won’t let us gather months for our precursor.

But perhaps that’s the reason for this decision, making the aquisition of legendaries even more difficult rather then making it easier.

fuji.6283:

The ridiculous price of the precious precursor has skyrocketed beyond unimaginable costs. Arenet, you need to get things together and release your new crafting system soon. The legendary gold grind process is really getting dull.

I’m really curious why so many have bought into the idea that the precursor crafting is gonna be some kind of silver bullet.

If it’s a “fair” method, I think a good many people are in for a shock in just how arduous it may turn out to be…

I post it elsewhere, but just for some quick estimations -

Mourningcry.9428:

Perhaps… but take the case of Dusk and Twilight…

For a while Dusk’s role could basically be broke down roughly as % of Twlight such that it was

~25% as an outright ingredient (1 of 4 parts)
~40-45% as a converted gold cost if bought from TP(does not include Gift of Mastery, or Clovers)
~99.99% as a drop acquisition (being generous)

You can blend and weight those attributes arbitrarily to come to exactly what % of the Legnedary the precusor contributed in your opinion. But at least it gives some boundaries for what it actually represents.

So, when taking into account those very generalized breakdowns, thinking that crafting the precursor would ease the burden of creating a legendary to less than just the outright converted cost, just seems optimistic.

And now, assuming that the crafting still uses the now appreciated T6 mats, instead of T7, or gated mats, it’s arguable that it could even be more prohibitive. Worse yet if it includes a new RNG gated element similar to clovers.

I’m not painting a picture of doom. I suppose it’s only natural to be optimistic, but even a conservative estimate would look daunting.

@Mourningcry: I tend to agree with you to a point. However, I think most people’s excitement is based on the fact that at least they will know how much they need to craft/gather/wait to get a precursor. Rather than just spending, in some cases, 100’s of gold in the MF or farming for months to buy one off the TP.

As far as I am concerned, I would spend twice the price in mats to get one rather than buy one off the TP from some kitten who is just buying and flipping them. I don’t really want a legendary and I am not currently working toward one, but if I was, I would be happy with the addition of crafting precursors even if it meant a heck of a lot more work than you can imagine.

cranked.3812:

@Mourningcry: I tend to agree with you to a point. However, I think most people’s excitement is based on the fact that at least they will know how much they need to craft/gather/wait to get a precursor. Rather than just spending, in some cases, 100’s of gold in the MF or farming for months to buy one off the TP.

As far as I am concerned, I would spend twice the price in mats to get one rather than buy one off the TP from some kitten who is just buying and flipping them. I don’t really want a legendary and I am not currently working toward one, but if I was, I would be happy with the addition of crafting precursors even if it meant a heck of a lot more work than you can imagine.

No argument there.

Just trying to add a little realism into the dream.

Unless someone is familiar with the legendary process, without conventional TP flipping, the process is daunting as it stands now. I’m not entirely sold that swapping the current “direct” method of gold → precursor would be a worse alternative to craft → precursor. At least there are numerous methods to acquire gold. Who knows how limiting the crafting methods may prove to be.

Mourningcry.9428:

fuji.6283:

The ridiculous price of the precious precursor has skyrocketed beyond unimaginable costs. Arenet, you need to get things together and release your new crafting system soon. The legendary gold grind process is really getting dull.

I’m really curious why so many have bought into the idea that the precursor crafting is gonna be some kind of silver bullet.

If it’s a “fair” method, I think a good many people are in for a shock in just how arduous it may turn out to be…

I post it elsewhere, but just for some quick estimations -

Mourningcry.9428:

Perhaps… but take the case of Dusk and Twilight…

For a while Dusk’s role could basically be broke down roughly as % of Twlight such that it was

~25% as an outright ingredient (1 of 4 parts)
~40-45% as a converted gold cost if bought from TP(does not include Gift of Mastery, or Clovers)
~99.99% as a drop acquisition (being generous)

You can blend and weight those attributes arbitrarily to come to exactly what % of the Legnedary the precusor contributed in your opinion. But at least it gives some boundaries for what it actually represents.

So, when taking into account those very generalized breakdowns, thinking that crafting the precursor would ease the burden of creating a legendary to less than just the outright converted cost, just seems optimistic.

And now, assuming that the crafting still uses the now appreciated T6 mats, instead of T7, or gated mats, it’s arguable that it could even be more prohibitive. Worse yet if it includes a new RNG gated element similar to clovers.

I’m not painting a picture of doom. I suppose it’s only natural to be optimistic, but even a conservative estimate would look daunting.

everything you said above is just from your imagination. What you just said is no better than some people’s expectation that it will be easier. Truth is nobody know what will happen, but one thing is for sure… MORE SUPPLY.

Hell Avenger.7021:

Mourningcry.9428:

fuji.6283:

The ridiculous price of the precious precursor has skyrocketed beyond unimaginable costs. Arenet, you need to get things together and release your new crafting system soon. The legendary gold grind process is really getting dull.

I’m really curious why so many have bought into the idea that the precursor crafting is gonna be some kind of silver bullet.

If it’s a “fair” method, I think a good many people are in for a shock in just how arduous it may turn out to be…

I post it elsewhere, but just for some quick estimations -

Mourningcry.9428:

Perhaps… but take the case of Dusk and Twilight…

For a while Dusk’s role could basically be broke down roughly as % of Twlight such that it was

~25% as an outright ingredient (1 of 4 parts)
~40-45% as a converted gold cost if bought from TP(does not include Gift of Mastery, or Clovers)
~99.99% as a drop acquisition (being generous)

You can blend and weight those attributes arbitrarily to come to exactly what % of the Legnedary the precusor contributed in your opinion. But at least it gives some boundaries for what it actually represents.

So, when taking into account those very generalized breakdowns, thinking that crafting the precursor would ease the burden of creating a legendary to less than just the outright converted cost, just seems optimistic.

And now, assuming that the crafting still uses the now appreciated T6 mats, instead of T7, or gated mats, it’s arguable that it could even be more prohibitive. Worse yet if it includes a new RNG gated element similar to clovers.

I’m not painting a picture of doom. I suppose it’s only natural to be optimistic, but even a conservative estimate would look daunting.

everything you said above is just from your imagination. What you just said is no better than some people’s expectation that it will be easier. Truth is nobody know what will happen, but one thing is for sure… MORE SUPPLY.

And how’d you’d come to the conclusion of more supply?

Suppose the crafting method is more prohibitive then just farming gold? Then supply remains the same.

And even if there is more supply, this doesn’t necessarily correlate to lower prices.

Alternatively, suppose it’s easier to craft, but crafting results in an account bound item. Now, supply stays the same, or even decreases.

Imagine much?

Demand for precursors will always be high, at least until a good portion of the community has got what they want, everyone has alittle bit of ego in a MMO regardless of how much they say they dont care about the shinies so everyone eyes the max weapon a little.

Crafting precursors will either involve some form of RNG or lottery knowing anet, and also probabyl involve doing obsqure quest lines like the black moa in gw1 to get components

if precursor crafting is fair then will fight the speculation that got precursor to insane prices…

So they should compare to wasting 300 G for a precursor but i hope not 800 for sure.

And would be a deserved hit to speculators.

Mourningcry.9428:

I’m really curious why so many have bought into the idea that the precursor crafting is gonna be some kind of silver bullet.

If it’s a “fair” method, I think a good many people are in for a shock in just how arduous it may turn out to be…

It’s the same reasoning behind claims that Future MMO X will be the best thing ever, will blow away the competition, etc. By the time it’s released the complaints have already started rolling in, predictions that it will be completely dead within six months, etc.

Because the new process hasn’t been detailed yet, it can be whatever the poster wants it to be. Once it is defined, it will be inferior to the fantasy image and so the complaints will begin.

Mourningcry.9428:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Mourningcry.9428:

fuji.6283:

The ridiculous price of the precious precursor has skyrocketed beyond unimaginable costs. Arenet, you need to get things together and release your new crafting system soon. The legendary gold grind process is really getting dull.

I’m really curious why so many have bought into the idea that the precursor crafting is gonna be some kind of silver bullet.

If it’s a “fair” method, I think a good many people are in for a shock in just how arduous it may turn out to be…

I post it elsewhere, but just for some quick estimations -

Mourningcry.9428:

Perhaps… but take the case of Dusk and Twilight…

For a while Dusk’s role could basically be broke down roughly as % of Twlight such that it was

~25% as an outright ingredient (1 of 4 parts)
~40-45% as a converted gold cost if bought from TP(does not include Gift of Mastery, or Clovers)
~99.99% as a drop acquisition (being generous)

You can blend and weight those attributes arbitrarily to come to exactly what % of the Legnedary the precusor contributed in your opinion. But at least it gives some boundaries for what it actually represents.

So, when taking into account those very generalized breakdowns, thinking that crafting the precursor would ease the burden of creating a legendary to less than just the outright converted cost, just seems optimistic.

And now, assuming that the crafting still uses the now appreciated T6 mats, instead of T7, or gated mats, it’s arguable that it could even be more prohibitive. Worse yet if it includes a new RNG gated element similar to clovers.

I’m not painting a picture of doom. I suppose it’s only natural to be optimistic, but even a conservative estimate would look daunting.

everything you said above is just from your imagination. What you just said is no better than some people’s expectation that it will be easier. Truth is nobody know what will happen, but one thing is for sure… MORE SUPPLY.

And how’d you’d come to the conclusion of more supply?

Suppose the crafting method is more prohibitive then just farming gold? Then supply remains the same.

And even if there is more supply, this doesn’t necessarily correlate to lower prices.

Alternatively, suppose it’s easier to craft, but crafting results in an account bound item. Now, supply stays the same, or even decreases.

Imagine much?

Look man,

Current Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge

New Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge
Crafting

Do the math, how many new method? ONE. Now you have TWO supply sources.

Some people just cannot do the math… holy, 1+1=2, man. Get a grip.

TBH, I am already short of calling all you said as BS. Now I am saying, it is all BS.

More Supply = LOWER PRICE, as long as demand don’t increase (If you buy that crap, I don’t. I don’t care what Smith said, this market is commodities market. “Demand” will only increase if you cause inflation → during short term it looks like demand increase)

Hell Avenger.7021:

Current Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge

New Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge
Crafting

The problem here is, that you don’t know if de possibility to use the Mystic Forge in order to get a precursor will stay in the game. Imagine if ANet announced, that it will disappear and that the crafted precursors will be account bound and perhaps will even take a long time to get due to materials which can only be gathered once a day… The prices would skyrocket even more.

In my oppinion the best strategy is to wait until the next patch has come, hope that the prices will decrease to the point they were and buy it then. If the prices stay the same you’ll have to wait for the crafting system and hope for an easier way to get them.

Hell Avenger.7021:

Look man,

Current Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge

New Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge
Crafting

Do the math, how many new method? ONE. Now you have TWO supply sources.

Some people just cannot do the math… holy, 1+1=2, man. Get a grip.

TBH, I am already short of calling all you said as BS. Now I am saying, it is all BS.

More Supply = LOWER PRICE, as long as demand don’t increase (If you buy that crap, I don’t. I don’t care what Smith said, this market is commodities market. “Demand” will only increase if you cause inflation -> during short term it looks like demand increase)

And if the precursors are account bound like the last recipies introduced? 1+0 = 1

Edit:

Further, coming off my first edit, you’re presuming that the rate that each of supply source remains the same. Maybe some of the Forge makers shift to crafting and deplete that to a negligble source? Crafting, assuming it’s not bounded, would be a possible substitute, or an addition, certainly both. And while one may not preclude the other, one may very well cannibalize the other due to efficiencies.

You presume way too much. And have a knack for oversimplyfying, ignoring and dismissing factors you don’t feel like adressing.

/end edit
Let’s say supply does increase. Shift the supply curve, shift the demand curve higher price point.

Not BS, simple Econ 101.

Edit: I should clarify, magnitude of the shifts would be key. So, it’s more fair to say price may change. I let my own bias into that one.

Mourningcry.9428:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Look man,

Current Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge

New Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge
Crafting

Do the math, how many new method? ONE. Now you have TWO supply sources.

Some people just cannot do the math… holy, 1+1=2, man. Get a grip.

TBH, I am already short of calling all you said as BS. Now I am saying, it is all BS.

More Supply = LOWER PRICE, as long as demand don’t increase (If you buy that crap, I don’t. I don’t care what Smith said, this market is commodities market. “Demand” will only increase if you cause inflation -> during short term it looks like demand increase)

And if the precursors are account bound like the last recipies introduced? 1+0 = 1

Edit:

Further, coming off my first edit, you’re presuming that the rate that each of supply source remains the same. Maybe some of the Forge makers shift to crafting and deplete that to a negligble source? Crafting, assuming it’s not bounded, would be a possible substitute, or an addition, certainly both. And while one may not preclude the other, one may very well cannibalize the other due to efficiencies.

You presume way too much. And have a knack for oversimplyfying, ignoring and dismissing factors you don’t feel like adressing.

/end edit
Let’s say supply does increase. Shift the supply curve, shift the demand curve higher price point.

Not BS, simple Econ 101.

Edit: I should clarify, magnitude of the shifts would be key. So, it’s more fair to say price may change. I let my own bias into that one.

MORE BS, now you are claiming to know that there will be changes to DROP table. buddy stop please. pulling stuff out of… isn’t going to help your argument. I am merely basing on the current system staying the same plus additional crafting supply source.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Look here are your assumptions:
1) Drop rate of MF will be lowered (idk where the hell you made that up from)
2) Precursor Crafting could be account bounded (??)
3) Supply of materials for precursor crafting going to be a factor (Don’t make me LOL, that isnt a factor to determine additional supply. Why? Simply because precursor supply was fueled by Mystic forge, now an additional supply source open up = more supply. how many more idk, but there will be more)

MY assumption:
1) Mystic Forge stay the same.

Your assumptions for the factors you mentioned above are just OUT OF THE THIN AIR. AKA worthless assumptions until patch come out. So quit spewing nonsense and wait till patch note, alright?

Btw, I know more about economics than you.

Hell Avenger.7021:

MORE BS, now you are claiming to know that there will be changes to DROP table. buddy stop please. pulling stuff out of… isn’t going to help your argument. I am merely basing on the current system staying the same plus additional crafting supply source.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Btw, I know more about economics than you.

Again, just ignore what you don’t want to adress. That’s cool. And while you may very well know more economics then I do, you lack in reading comprehension. I never claimed to know anything. Just throwing out possibilities that are just as valid as the simplistic eutopia you’re portraying.

Have a good one.

Mourningcry.9428:

Hell Avenger.7021:

MORE BS, now you are claiming to know that there will be changes to DROP table. buddy stop please. pulling stuff out of… isn’t going to help your argument. I am merely basing on the current system staying the same plus additional crafting supply source.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Btw, I know more about economics than you.

Again, just ignore what you don’t want to adress. That’s cool. And while you may very well know more economics then I do, you lack in reading comprehension. I never claimed to know anything. Just throwing out possibilities that are just as valid as the simplistic eutopia you’re portraying.

Have a good one.

Go read my above EDITED post, I took the time to point out how many things you are assuming.

Final say: WAIT for the patch note, and stop this speculation that you will have zero ground to base on.

Or using your logic, I can just wildly assume ANET servers explode = game over.

Hell Avenger.7021:

MORE BS, now you are claiming to know that there will be changes to DROP table. buddy stop please. pulling stuff out of… isn’t going to help your argument. I am merely basing on the current system staying the same plus additional crafting supply source.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Look here are your assumptions:
1) Drop rate of MF will be lowered (idk where the hell you made that up from)
2) Precursor Crafting could be account bounded (??)
3) Supply of materials for precursor crafting going to be a factor (Don’t make me LOL, that isnt a factor to determine additional supply. Why? Simply because precursor supply was fueled by Mystic forge, now an additional supply source open up = more supply. how many more idk, but there will be more)

MY assumption:
1) Mystic Forge stay the same.

Your assumptions for the factors you mentioned above are just OUT OF THE THIN AIR. AKA worthless assumptions until patch come out. So quit spewing nonsense and wait till patch note, alright?

Btw, I know more about economics than you.

You edited while I was replying to your original post.

But just to clarify your confusion abotu my assumptions:

1) You misunderstand. MF suppy rates may decrease because the actors currently doing that would instead put their resources to crafting. Simply efficiencies. Whichever method is more efficient, presuming a rational actor, that is what people will do.

2) Just as likely as it not being. Especially given the latest precident of Celestial gear.

3) And what do you think fueled the Mystic Forge supply? How about people crafting countless rares to toss? How about the gold (yes that’s a resource) to buy the rares.

Your assumption that the MF stays the same is just fine. In fact, it’s even better then mine in that it assumes that all the changes in no way will affect the status quo of the MF. And you think I’m making stuff up?

And you’re absolutely right that it’s all meaningless until the patch comes out. Just as meaningless as all the wide-eyed optimism thinking crafting will be the answer we’ve been waiting for.

Hell Avenger.7021:

Look man,

Current Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge

New Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge
Crafting

Do the math, how many new method? ONE. Now you have TWO supply sources.

Some people just cannot do the math… holy, 1+1=2, man. Get a grip.

You’re hugely oversimplifying things. The number of supply sources ultimately does not matter. It’s how many people participate in those activities, and at what rate the items is being produced which matters.

Adding the ability to craft precursors could lead to a situation where people who previously tossed rares into the MF stops, and starts crafting them instead. In which case although you have 1 more source of creating precursors, the overall supply of it still may not be affected.

Regardless, it’s all speculation until we know what Anet is doing. However, it’s far from a guarantee that “Supply will increase for sure.”