Guild Wars 2

35 keys
0 tickets

Keys = 5
Tickets = 1

I find it kinda funny that people go gambling for the weapon, then when they lose they get upset with the game. Don’t rage quit because YOU were silly enough to throw fortunes at this. Have we not learned about how punishing gambling can be from MF? It’s quite literally the same as throwing a tantrum at a roulette because you picked the wrong number time and time again.

Sina.9208:

Insignia.6345:

Didn’t you all learn your lesson during the Halloween update? and to add fuel to this fire, i got my ticket on my first chest…its RNG accept it and move on. Having one of these fused weapons actually makes it feel prestigious because of its rarity legendary’s are far too common now. ;D

This is a lot worse than @ halloween, now the tickets are account bound … 25-30 Keys no ticket, thinking of deleting the game too.

So delete it, its a weapon skin and it adds no advantage over any other player in the game what so ever. On top of all that just grab a CoF weapon they aren’t drastically different. The best part? If you do decide to delete it you dont miss out on anything because you have no sub-fee and the only thing you wont have that other people may have if you decide to return is all aesthetics.

About 15 chests here so far, nothing. Though, I get the feeling the RNG isn’t as bad as some people say it is.

I assume we have 2 months to go after the skins? If you open only a few chests each day, it doesn’t seem so bad.

fabipm.4359:

Nike.2631:

The new guild skins are not particularly single-check RNG.

Particularly ugly and easy to obtain.

Funny.

A: I like ’em.
B: they are essentially impossible to obtain for a small guild player like me.

6 Keys- 1 ticket
2 free keys from above- 0 tickets

Hello
you’re going to lose players if you keep putting the skins in the chests
i had hope for this game but i’m starting to play less and give less support to this game

i’m a veteran of GW1 and had tons of fun , the skins we bought in the first one we could use them in battle , here its for town cloth , just check how many people actually use town cloth go check yourself
now you put skins in chest with random luck….. unfair for players who paid tons of money and didnt get what they wanted

“a disappointed player”

30 chests and nothing of value. Oh well. Onwards I go.

MikeRocks.9243:

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

This is very true. The only people likely to post are either those that have opened a lot of chests and received nothing, or those who’ve opened very few and received one.

Not even accounting for the MASSIVE player base that doesn’t even touch the forums.

And this is exactly why you can NEVER obtain accurate data from a survey. OP may not like to hear it, but John Smith is spot on.

15 chests and no tickets. Seriously… that’s really low rate and I really hate myself for spending money on such a waste. This really discourages me from playing and especially PAYING. Next time, I will think about my money more wisely…
:-(

starwatto.4527:

15 chests and no tickets. Seriously… that’s really low rate and I really hate myself for spending money on such a waste. This really discourages me from playing and especially PAYING. Next time, I will think about my money more wisely…
:-(

I have to agree with this for the most part especially the last sentence.

This really has discouraged any desire to buy keys anymore.

I won’t even try for a new skin for anything unless I know for a fact that I will get it.

Guys if you want to get rid of bias, you must post in this forum how many keys you are going to use BEFORE you use them, use the keys then edit in the complete result.

Otherwise your information is useless. (see people going to the forum to whine after using 100+ keys and not getting anything).

You’re going to need a massive amount of data if there is a true RNG on the end of this system. If so, even anet may not be able to give you accurate statistics anyway. Doing this is quite possibly a lost cause.

250+
0 tickets.

starwatto.4527:

15 chests and no tickets. Seriously… that’s really low rate and I really hate myself for spending money on such a waste. This really discourages me from playing and especially PAYING. Next time, I will think about my money more wisely…
:-(

If there was a 10% chance, with only 15 chests you still wouldn’t find any 20.6% of the time.

If the chance was 1%, with only 15 chests you have an 86% chance of not getting one.

The rate appears by the anecdotal reports to be leaning toward the 1% chance rather than 10%.

12 chests 0 tickets. In fact, nothing but junk.

munkiman.3068:

You’re going to need a massive amount of data if there is a true RNG on the end of this system. If so, even anet may not be able to give you accurate statistics anyway. Doing this is quite possibly a lost cause.

You need more data to get a strong degree of accuracy as about the cube of the inverse of the chance. But you can start excluding higher values much, much faster than that. I think we can all agree, just from anecdotal evidence the chance is NOT 50% per box, yes?

Keep in mind also that BLC drop rates are not values as they appear in nature – somewhere a human chose the drop chance, and humans are far more likely to pick numbers with few significant digits. That it was set to 1 in 100 is far more likely than it was set to 1 in 143. So to build a decent approximation strong enough to decide strategy on, we can for the most part focus on comparing the data vs. likely candidates.

Is it 1 in 25? Probably not, but not entirely impossible due to limits of the reliability of reporting.

Is it 1 in 50? Again, proably not, but if it were I wouldn’t feel like this thread was wasted effort.

Is it 1 in 100? That would be consistent with a lot of the data, and is one of those psychologically insideous numbers that would be easy to present in a meeting to finacial managers for aproval… Its also probably the upper bound of rarity you’d want for an item you WANT customers to “farm” aggressively over a short span.

Is it one in 200? I’m inclined to say no – even with reporting bias the number of people who have turned up 2 tickets in less than 50 attempts would make me suspicious. And again the psychology of “Less than 1%” is likely to drive off potential buyers, being a mentally tangible cut-off point for ‘trying your luck’.

So really, the weak data gathering has to be massaged with both a look at the psychology of the sellers and the buyers, and then all of that dropped into some basic game theory on “is this a strategy worth pursuing?”

Do you want a fusion skin badly? Then forget aboout it. You can’t have one.

Do you want a fusion skin a little bit? Great! Crack 10 chests and move on. Maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised.

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

I love it when people bring up actual biases. Mmmm delicious statistics/psychology. You’re my favorite dev poster now.

Eternis.1746:

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

I love it when people bring up actual biases. Mmmm delicious statistics/psychology. You’re my favorite dev poster now.

Does that make you Dev biased?

Just think, if Anet wasn’t greedy with gem store lotteries, we could buy skins directly for a flat price and the drop rate would be 100% (and everyone would be happy, woah, can’t have that!)

At least I and many others are saving money while the gambling addicts being targeted are paying for our game improvements…

azurrei.5691:

Just think, if Anet wasn’t greedy with gem store lotteries, we could buy skins directly for a flat price and the drop rate would be 100% (and everyone would be happy, woah, can’t have that!)

Everyone except ANet, clearly. You know, the people doing the actual creative work in this exchange?

I blame Napster – it gave people the perverse belief that the buyer, not the seller, should dictate asking prices.

azurrei.5691:

Just think, if Anet wasn’t greedy with gem store lotteries, we could buy skins directly for a flat price and the drop rate would be 100% (and everyone would be happy, woah, can’t have that!)

At least I and many others are saving money while the gambling addicts being targeted are paying for our game improvements…

I would not be happy with this. This game sounds awful.

I don’t understand why anyone is happy with a game where everything has a 100% drop rate. There’s no emotional response to the game at all!

If you acquire a rare piece of loot off a boss that drops it 1% of the time: Pleased, ecstatic reaction.
If you don’t acquire it: Disappointed.

If you acquire a rare piece of loot off a boss that drops it 100% of the time: Eh.
If you don’t acquire it: You don’t. Everyone acquires it.

What in the world is this? Extending the latter principle to everything in the game is a horrible idea. What do you feel about anything you own? “Eh, I can buy this for $20. That for $40. This is $5….” and so on and so forth. Like it or not, showing off a shiny new sword is a big part of this game’s experience. If everything was a 100% drop, you might as well be waving around a $20 bill. It’s silly. (This is also part of why I’d really want legendary items to be Account Bound, and built with more non-gold based items, but that’s not for this thread)

I personally approve of what they’re doing to the BLCs, and hope to see more skins added in an extreme rarity in the game, gem store and otherwise. I really would love to see certain items exist in a limited quantity in the entire game (i.e. only 1,000 across all of GW2). That would be a true legendary to me, though I’m not holding my breath. The trail of tears for people trying to acquire this would fill the Grand Canyon.

@ LFk – most things are like this already? Can’t get a mini wolf or a mini cat because I need laurels, a few things for karma, aye and the usual dungeon tokens.
But pretty much everything else has a price sticker?

Rouven.7409:

@ LFk – most things are like this already? Can’t get a mini wolf or a mini cat because I need laurels, a few things for karma, aye and the usual dungeon tokens.
But pretty much everything else has a price sticker?

All ascended gear is currently not tied to cash, save for the back piece. The best looking one (beta capacitor) is based on relics, too.
Legendary weapons are not tied to cash in their entirety, unless you buy the completed weapon.
Fractal skins, badge skins, dungeon skins, karma skins…
Hopefully the black lion TP skins going forward are also account bound.

Also, I’m not saying I want to make gold/cash useless. In fact, you should be able to buy many, or even most things with money.

I was arguing against the idea of buying everything with money, and making sure everything dropped 100% so long as you did one quest/killed that one monster/paid X money. The RNG is an important part of the MMO experience, and a positive thing overall. It just has a very negative vibe on the forums due to observer bias: If you’re on the losing end, you’re likely to post about it.

Nike.2631:

Do you want a fusion skin badly? Then forget aboout it. You can’t have one.

This pretty much sums things up. If you really want it, you can’t have it (unless you get lucky – and all the wanting in the world won’t change your luck). You can’t buy it or earn it. And, no matter how much money or time you invest, if you don’t get lucky before the event ends, you never will be able to get one.

Lasting disappointment FTW!

Yes true, I forgot the ascended stuff, although I kinda mentioned them – laurels, dungeon tokens and karma.

People also post when they are lucky – I don’t know. Hey don’t get me wrong, I’m not upset or anything – but it kinda makes me go “meh” for the most part (more and more).

Was it actually confirmed anywhere how long the vendor will stay?

LFk.1408:

azurrei.5691:

Just think, if Anet wasn’t greedy with gem store lotteries, we could buy skins directly for a flat price and the drop rate would be 100% (and everyone would be happy, woah, can’t have that!)

At least I and many others are saving money while the gambling addicts being targeted are paying for our game improvements…

I would not be happy with this. This game sounds awful.

I don’t understand why anyone is happy with a game where everything has a 100% drop rate. There’s no emotional response to the game at all!

If you acquire a rare piece of loot off a boss that drops it 1% of the time: Pleased, ecstatic reaction.
If you don’t acquire it: Disappointed.

If you acquire a rare piece of loot off a boss that drops it 100% of the time: Eh.
If you don’t acquire it: You don’t. Everyone acquires it.

What in the world is this? Extending the latter principle to everything in the game is a horrible idea. What do you feel about anything you own? “Eh, I can buy this for $20. That for $40. This is $5….” and so on and so forth. Like it or not, showing off a shiny new sword is a big part of this game’s experience. If everything was a 100% drop, you might as well be waving around a $20 bill. It’s silly. (This is also part of why I’d really want legendary items to be Account Bound, and built with more non-gold based items, but that’s not for this thread)

I personally approve of what they’re doing to the BLCs, and hope to see more skins added in an extreme rarity in the game, gem store and otherwise. I really would love to see certain items exist in a limited quantity in the entire game (i.e. only 1,000 across all of GW2). That would be a true legendary to me, though I’m not holding my breath. The trail of tears for people trying to acquire this would fill the Grand Canyon.

Time is a currency just as much as money. RNG for time (1% drop off that boss) is no different than RNG for money (.0001% drop from the BLC). Spending time or money and getting no reward for it isn’t fun. If you don’ t have unlimited time or unlimited money, you get a final result disappointment most of the time and for some people effectively all of the time. That’s why the TP exists. If you don’t find (win) what you want, you can play enough to earn it. Winning (getting lucky) should save you time and effort, not make time and effort meaningless.

I have a Greatsaw skin that isn’t terribly common. I’ve never felt diminished when someone else I encountered had one or when someone I played with liked it and bought one as well. I don’t get the concept of taking pleasure in someone else not being able to have something.

Took approximately 60 keys to the chest, 0 tickets.
However, I still managed to get a Total Makeover Kit, Hair Style Makeover Kit, Name Change Contract, 3 BLT Salvage Kits (75 uses), Pink Quagan Backpack and ~ 20 Unidentified Dyes.

I get the impression that people don’t like this random chance stuff.

Svarty.8019:

I get the impression that people don’t like this random chance stuff.

And easy solution to this is not to roll the dice.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Svarty.8019:

I get the impression that people don’t like this random chance stuff.

And easy solution to this is not to roll the dice.

True that. Vote with your wallets. Let us not give anet any money.

OK total chests I have now open is 125 and got total of 6 tokens

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

Jon Smith,

What exactly is the point of your post?
Are you telling us something we already don’t know?
Are you trying to belittle our efforts to glean some sort of information since we can’t get anything definitive from Anet?
Are you just trying to antagonize us?

Please explain yourself or stop making posts that add nothing to the discussion.
This isn’t the first time that players have tried to figure out the odds. Why didn’t you post this in the other threads?

Gasoline.2570:

True that. Vote with your wallets. Let us not give anet any money.

Seriously. People have been saying the same thing since HALLOWEEN. And yet people still seem to like spending money on RNG. I don’t understand.

Enough repetition and they will. Might. Hopefully.

What’s there to not understand?

Gasoline.2570:

Enough repetition and they will. Might. Hopefully.

What’s there to not understand?

Because there’s evidence that despite the “I hate RNG” sentiments that goes around, the same people STILL spend money on it.

Anet has actual sales figures. That they’ve been repeating the random-boxes has to mean that those sales models are very successful as opposed to Wintersday’s non-random purchase model. They’re not doing this just purely to spite customers. No, they’re doing it because it’s (most likely) profitable.

We go through this cycle every holiday. People will cry “I SPEND $200 AND GOT NOTHING.” IF IT’S RNG AND YOU DON’T LIKE IT, DON’T SPEND MONEY AT ALL. Anet is a company, they simply do the most profitable things, and as long as people continue to purchase RNG boxes, they will defer to said random boxes as opposed to set purchases.

Basically, let your money speak, not stupid whiny forum posts. The former goes a long way in persuading Anet, while the latter just makes you sound silly. I don’t like RNG, which is why I never purchase Lion Keys or those random boxes. For the life of me I don’t understand people who don’t like RNG but still spend money on them.

Apologies ahead of time, I am not a math person at all.

Just a little rough estimation but I think the chance of getting a token is 5%, or 1 in 20. I just added up a few of the totals some people were reporting who actually got a token, not including the massive 100+160+300 figure posted earlier.

It’s actually 4.7% but 5% seems like it would be the rounded amount that ArenaNet would use.

If you include the massive lists of failures who still got a token it’s like 2% or so, and if you include the people who got nothing, 1%. That’s just based on what’s been posted in this thread, keep in mind.

Ursan.7846:

For the life of me I don’t understand people who don’t like RNG but still spend money on them.

What’s hard to understand? People hate RNG but want the products they could get from said RNG, so they reluctantly put up with it to hopefully get the end resault they desire.

Its not like people are saying “I hate the RNG, but I’m going to buy a bunch of keys for no reason”. They do it because they want the skins, and as much as they might hate the RNG, playing the hated RNG and having a chance at skins > having no chance at all.

Scent.2658:

Jon Smith,

What exactly is the point of your post?
Are you telling us something we already don’t know?
Are you trying to belittle our efforts to glean some sort of information since we can’t get anything definitive from Anet?
Are you just trying to antagonize us?

Please explain yourself or stop making posts that add nothing to the discussion.
This isn’t the first time that players have tried to figure out the odds. Why didn’t you post this in the other threads?

Where you at Jon Smith?

Now that this thread has some flavor… I think you can taste the truth. You guys are selling Ice Cream Cones in the North Pole in Sub Zero Temps. Only those who are starving are buying.

Electro.4173:

Ursan.7846:

For the life of me I don’t understand people who don’t like RNG but still spend money on them.

What’s hard to understand? People hate RNG but want the products they could get from said RNG, so they reluctantly put up with it to hopefully get the end resault they desire.

Its not like people are saying “I hate the RNG, but I’m going to buy a bunch of keys for no reason”. They do it because they want the skins, and as much as they might hate the RNG, playing the hated RNG and having a chance at skins > having no chance at all.

…and then there are those who spend some time with the RNG to see if the reward rate is fair, or if it’s extremely kitten (as it is in this case). When they aren’t satisfied, they completely give up, and start having a terrible taste left over in their mouth for the game.

Electro.4173:

What’s hard to understand? People hate RNG but want the products they could get from said RNG, so they reluctantly put up with it to hopefully get the end resault they desire.

Its not like people are saying “I hate the RNG, but I’m going to buy a bunch of keys for no reason”. They do it because they want the skins, and as much as they might hate the RNG, playing the hated RNG and having a chance at skins > having no chance at all.

Right. And by “putting up” with it they enable Anet to do more of it. If you’re able to tolerate it enough to purchase it, what’s to stop Anet from doing it over and over and over again?

If you don’t like it, don’t put up with it. Stop purchasing RNG, make a statement.

Like, 200 keys, no ticket.

I did get an Endless Mystery Tonic, though.

10 keys, got my ticket on the 7th or 8th, i didn’t really notice. I wanted a name change contract.

this is just a temporary money sink huh xD

After using 25 Black Lion Keys, several purchased with real world money, none of the advertised new weapon skins appeared in any of the chests opened. I understand the concept of randomly generated rewards and how it creates revenue but when something is advertised as new and included in the chests it is a disservice to the customer when that item is not included.

It wasn’t advertised as included. It was advertised as being added to the rather large existing drop table for chests.

Even if the odds are 10%. With 25 keys/chests there is still a 7.2% chance of not getting one. If the odds are only 5% the chance of not getting one goes up to 27.7% with 25 chests.

188 chests opened
And not a single ticket.
I’m now thinking twice about continuing to play this game. Loved the game since launch, poured 100s of hours into it. And after pouring money into these keys for the chests only to get nothing after this many is like a slap in the face from Anet.

I got a ticket on my second chest opened. I couldn’t help but laugh. Naturally, when I don’t care about something is when I’m able to obtain it with ridiculous ease. I’d gladly sell/trade the ticket if I could.