Guild Wars 2

I plan to buy mine, but first I am going to gamble away all the exotics I can get with left over dungeon tokens I have no use for atm XD

Rather, why not entirely ignore the Legendary? It’s only a skin.

You attempt a Legendary item because you choose to do it for the skin. It is in no way better than your regular Lv 80 Exotic weapon.? Although you claim it as the “most ridiculous system ever created”, it is something you undertake by choice and can’t complain about the investment. You are not forced to do it for progression.

It is in no way a fundamental issue with the end game as it is completely optional. Keep that in mind!

If you grind for a Legendary without having lucked out on the precursor or having farmed for the precursor, you’re doing it wrong. Having a Legendary is in no means necessary for end-game…

EDIT: Especially if you get mad about how it works. I think finding something else to do while gaming instead of beelining for a Legendary will be beneficial for you.

Most of you are so bulkitten. I have 1000 hours totally played (some of it idling) and 450 on my guardian, the one I started working towards a legendary with. And I must say all I need now is some karma. I have gotten everything, including the precursor (1h ago after 5000+ rares thrown in the forge) by myself, farming a big part of the day. And I know many players that did the same. Don’t tell me just exploiters and gold buyers get them. Granted, I don’t have it yet, but I will in a few days and it was all my work, in game, legit. I got some of the gold and bought mats by getting Dawn and selling it before I got Dusk. But given the amount of gold I threw in the forge till I got Dusk, it evened out. It was a bit of luck that got me the mats faster and then just hard work.
I’m sure some people that have legendaries abused the game but nowhere near to 97% as someone was claiming.
So, yea, 450 hours played and I almost got Twilight, fair and square.

previously state: 550 great swords rare crafted and gambled.

Attempt 6 100 swords crafted, 0 precursor, 7 exotics sold for 15G
Attempt 7 100 swords crafted, 0 precursor, 5 exotics sold for 11G

Total swords crafted 750 (getting sick of this)

edit:
26 exotics lvl 78+ nothing.

@noir

Clearly not 97% of people who have a legendary are cheaters; however I’m sure there are a few. Come on now, where would that stat come from? Obviously some PO’d dude. If you got your legendary fair and square, congrats nuff said.

The 5k rares you tossed into the forge though, that makes even my wallet hurt… Most sensible people are upset with that fact I believe, but I may be wrong. Anyway cheers and good luck.

I’m sorry if this has already been asked, i’ve just noticed this topic and i confess i didn’t read all of it.
Does MF has some kind of influence in what you get from mystic forge? I’ve noticed a huge change in rewards while using the mystic forge with my thief (around 120% mf) and my ele (0%). I just wanna know if it’s just luck or there is some kind of influence (i used a quite large number of items, something like 40/100 items has gone from green to yellow or from yellow to exotic with thief, almost 0 with ele)

12 Rares = 1 Named Exotic (“Combustion”)

Got pretty excited, kinda sad it didn’t sell for much (1g 80s). Still a profit though, barely.

Wow Delolith you’re quite lucky

Congrats on finally obtaining your precursor.

I would advise people not to get overexcited about the November 15th patch. We have zero reason to believe that it’s going to be this particular patch. Anet certainly hasn’t said anything about it. besides, depending on how simple the change is it could appear in just about any of the smaller patches.

412 level 76+ exotics (103 tries) didn’t profit any precursors.

Azelroth.6801:

Every other component in the legendary making process should be based upon skill and or achievements in-game. That should be the way it’s done.

What skill? Easy as hell jumping puzzles? Playing as Thief in sPvP? Getting honor badges in Sanctuary? Grinding mats and karma? Running AC 30 times a day?

@Archer

That is sound advice. Nothing worse than setting expectations that aren’t met. I however am very optimistic it will be included in the November 15th patch for the following reasons.

1. Linsey’s post was made almost a month ago. Meaning they were aware there was a issue long before then.

2. If they decide to make precursors account bound, they likely won’t announce it advance, otherwise everyone holding onto precursors are just going to throw them into the TP & try to make any profit they can.

3. GW2 has extremely limited end-game. Right now legendaries are one of 3 faucets of that end-game. PvP/Dungeons/Legendaries. Legendaries being completely exclusive to lottery winners, people who bought them with RMT, exploits.

actually there is a pretty simple way to minimize the lose and make profit from making attempts to get a precursor.
the chance of getting an item of higher rarity is about 17-20% so that means every 5-6 try will get you an exotic from 4 rares. If you want to lose less $$ and even make some nice profit ( liek in my case) is to use green items. Let’s say that you already made 4 tries in the Mystic Forge with greens and what you got back was also a green. That meens that the next try will, in theory and statistically, grant you an exotic. This is just predicting. So in the 5th attempt, you put your 4 rares… Ofc this wont be always the fifth attempt that will grant you a better item…sometimes you will have two in a row and after that 10 tries will get you just trash. But in my case this is working pretty much like that. First I put greens…after a few trash items I put my rares and cross fingers that this attempt will be the good one. This way I made like something around 10g this weekend. 90% of the exotics I got back was named. The most expansive so far I got was Honor of Humanity.

Man..man..man.. Please stop crying.. Legendary means LEGENDARY it SHOULD be insanely hard to get.. You expect EVERYONE to have a Legendary weapon after 4 months? No, it isn’t supposed to be like that!

On top of it all, the fact that you ‘dont’ have a legendary, isn’t stopping you from playing the rest of the game, because in essence, the legendary is ONLY a skin.. It gives you NO advantage whatsoever in the game.

Worst of it all.. stop complaining about the precursor prices.. I agree it’s steep, I definitely do not have the gold to shell out on one. But consider the rest of the mats, they outweigh the precursor BY A MILE. Runestones alone 100g, more than 300 ectos, abt 50g, the mystic coincs, the T6 mats 250 of each… and some 500 like ancient woods and orics…

If a game gives you guys so much distress and anguish… I seriously recommend you find another hobby, which is more suited to your needs.

I myself enjoy a challenge.. even if its a tedious, long, frustrating one.. I look for this kind of thing in a game.. If everything is handed to me on a silver platter, or even if it’s a ‘fixed’ recipe like you guys want, I would loose interest in the game almost immediately.. mindlessly grinding on fixed stepping stones.. There would be no element of surprise, no outcry of joy..

I implore A-net to keep it as it is..

(P.S. I did get my precursor ‘Leaf of Kudzu’, but only after having thrown in about 1600 rares, and 100 exotics) – I would say compared to the R&D thread on precursors, that’s within the average.)

It is plain and simple that Anet doesnt care and wont change it. The only reason they changed the BLC was because real $ was spent and people started boycotting the gem store.
Anet touted this in the 2nd week as your journey legendaries. What they forgot to add is that you cant obtain one without exploiting, buying gold, or stupid luck.
They want you to buy gold from them or from a farmer it is simple.
Skill and dedication play no role in this and it is a sad statement.

That’s not how maths works papryk. If there’s a 20% chance to get an exotic, it means every combine has a chance to get 20%. Every combine is separate from your others.

You could do 100 combines and get no exotic, and you know what the chance of you getting an exotic next time is? It’s 20%. Hell, you could do 50million and not get one, and the chance of your next one is still 20%.

Every combine is a chance by itself, and the ones you do beforehand don’t have any affect.

My math seems pretty good since a made a nice profit while making attempts to get a precursor.
My observations and every video on YT, posts here just confirm that. Statistically you get an exotic after 5-6 tries.

just take a look at Delolith.9645 post. He used 92 rares. That’s 23 tries. He got 7 exotics. Statistically he had an exotic every 3 tries. Kinda lucky but still…that’s what I am talking about.

I’m now convinced that the type of rare you throw in effects the chance to get an exotic.

I started out trying to get dusk, and after 92 attempts, i got 12 exotic gs (13.04%)

I decided then to try getting the colossus of rage instead. After 104 attempts, i got 25 exotic hammers (24.03%)

Incredibly different results. Why, i’m not so sure…….. but my guess is there is a generally larger overall pool of possible greatswords results than there are hammers, which might be the reason why the percentages are different.

Now before you go “holy crap, hammer crafting is way better” keep in mind, exotic hammers across the board are worth way, way less than random exotic greatswords. (way less demand for hammers compared to great sword which usually look nicer and have more classes that can use it)

Alot of the exotic lvl 80 hammers are <1 gold. I threw any exotic hammer <1 gold back into the forge……

So now im 0/6 precursor on lvl 80 exo hammers.

You know, I wonder if they factor in the amount of exotics or precursors there are in the world when you are gambling at the forge. This would insure that the swords stay rare. Dynamic odds.

BTW I’ve gotten the following named GS exotics, some multiple time. Ebonblade, Dhuumseal, Kymswarden, Skybringer, Naegling, Naga Fang, Breath of Flame, Khrysaor(my memory is fuzzy about this one). Only a matter of time until Dawn/Dusk?

They promised a new loottable system and better coherent drops. This is what make us hope

Delolith

If you consider that you might need a double crit with rares (crit to exotic, crit to precursor) I think you are loosing your time with rares.

Depends the situation really. With exotics there’s not much room for improvement (eg you loose 3 exotics every time you don’t get the pre-cursor), with rares you can always get an exotic back which you can sell to buy more rares and have another shot.
In my case, I’m currently almost broke and nearly out of crafting mats as well after having levelled another profession to 400.
With my last bit of money I bought 4 rare level 80 staffs from TP and I got a named exotic in return that I could’ve sold for ~3G if I wouldn’t have wanted to keep it myself.
So instead of having to wait on lucky drops for exotics or enough gold to buy them, I’m still able to continue my luck with much cheaper / easier to get rares and earn some money in the progress and/or gives me more exotics to gamble with than if I wouldn’t throw in rares.

My results so far:
12x lvl 80 rare staff = 2x rare + 1 x named exotic
12x lvl 76+ random rares = 1 x lvl 80 exotic + 2 x lvl 80 rare

I just forged +200 rare hammers last night, got about 5 exotics and no pre-cursor.

I wish I had skimmed this post sooner, because it seems that the only people with success are the ones using exotics in the forge…

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

This thread is fun. It remembers me a gambling forum, there was a roulette thread where some funny guys was attempting to figure out which number repeat most so they can throw a lot of money on that number. Such of pathetic isn’t it? Well, the gambling needed for get a precursor is the same exact pathetic hope. It’s a pure random system. You can get a precursor on your 4th attempt using 16 weapons. Or noone using 4000 attempts. Do you know guys what random means?

Didn’t you see how one of the people got mad, when someone tried to explain how independent events works? What made you think, they know math. Or another example, It’s kinda like how when the weatherman says they might be a 80% chance of raining, when it doesn’t rain people get pissed.

The point being a lot of people did not take probability and so the concept of independent events is lost on them.

Ravax.1205:

I implore A-net to keep it as it is..

(P.S. I did get my precursor ‘Leaf of Kudzu’, but only after having thrown in about 1600 rares, and 100 exotics) – I would say compared to the R&D thread on precursors, that’s within the average.)

And wow, who post “Don’t touch nothing” ? A guy with a precursor hehe
Oh, i don’t want to insinuate you used the famous exploits, you was lucky. Sure
Like if a gambling game is what makes you worthy of wield a legendary weapon lol. Legendary lucky weapons was a better name

I’ve made the decision to pursue the legendary knowing it will be a sink. I am not going out of my way to farm gold, but I do a lot of dungeons and WvW whenever I am on, and I can rack gold and items quickly…hell I probably could have bought my pre-cursor from the TP by now, but I find the gamble interesting.

I have no issues throwing all I have into the forge, and I have no expectations toward the results.

What I would like to know, is if exotics or rares should be used? Because if rares do not result in the pre-cursor (which is what I am gathering from a lot of these posts) I’ve been wasting my time and resources, that I could have been folding into acquiring more exotics to throw into the forge.

But ultimately, what else are you going to do with these resources? I’ve found the profession I enjoyed the most and it is geared out in all slots and has top end item upgrades.

IMO if you are not ok with losing all you have to get a legendary then your account is not in a place where you should be going for it.

Accordingly to Anet devs ( who noone ever proved as realistic) i would suggest you to craft 4 named exotics, make at least 32 of them, and throw them. Of, if you wasted 500g or more of mats to make them and you kept receiving unnamed exotic trash until broke, hey, happens

They absolutely CAN be obtained by using rares.

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

Ravax.1205:

I implore A-net to keep it as it is..

(P.S. I did get my precursor ‘Leaf of Kudzu’, but only after having thrown in about 1600 rares, and 100 exotics) – I would say compared to the R&D thread on precursors, that’s within the average.)

And wow, who post “Don’t touch nothing” ? A guy with a precursor hehe
Oh, i don’t want to insinuate you used the famous exploits, you was lucky. Sure
Like if a gambling game is what makes you worthy of wield a legendary weapon lol. Legendary lucky weapons was a better name

Oh look someone who is obviously jealous of such luck.

Linsey Murdock is the Game Designer specifically tasked with system design relating to crafting, loot and rewards. Some people may claim that her statements are not ‘proved as realistic’, but only a fool would beleive them, rather than the person who job is developing this system.

In fact these comments are from a thread sticked as the Official Response regarding the drop rate for precursors.

LinseyMurdock.4165:

As a quick note, the higher the level and rarity of the things you are throwing into the forge, the better your chances of getting a Legendary Precursor.

LinseyMurdock.4165:

Nebilim.5127:

Can you define rarity lynsey? Do you mean just any level 80 exotics or do you mean extremely hard to get exotics like named ones? Do crafted weapons constitute as less rare?

Though not all Exotics are “created equal” they are all of the same rarity: Exotic.

In other words:

• named exotics are of equal quality to crafted exotics when it comes to getting a precursor
• using level 80 exotics (highest possible level and rarity, other than legendary) gives the best chances of getting a precursor.
• lower level or lesser rarity weapons can create precursors, but have a lower chance of doing so.

I don’t mind hope, I just don’t want people attacking Anet afterwards as if they had promised to change precursors on the 15th.

Btw, I’m only seeing 2 Dusks left right now. The cheapest is 430 gold. That’s the market stability I’d expect for an item that’s so rare.

So now that Dusk jumped another 100 gold over night are we still gonna say its price is stable? RNG supports, just like politicians, keep speaking that party line.

Seriously though, the only luck-based semi-important items to get in the entire game are these Legendary precursors and, arguably, the whole set of Lodestone crafting materials. It’s certainly not that ANet doesn’t care; it’s because the Legendary system and crafting don’t need to be changed whatsoever.

The system isn’t broken. The demand far outweighs the offer, since everybody wants to have a Legendary and don’t realize that it’s never going to happen. Heck, trying to find another skin than a Legendary may yield you interesting results…

Side notes:
-I don’t have a Legendary and don’t plan on getting one this year. If I do luck out on a precursor, I’m making bank on it.
-Pact Trident > Legendary skin, IMO.

As I’ve suggested on another thread. I think the best way to handle this is make more legendary options (that look cool of course) with more definite recipes. That way people stop complaining about not having legendaries for the achievement or for whatever reason they QQ about it for. RNG should stay; it’s just how it should work—it’s not bad game design because the intent was for only a select few lucky people to get them. But seriously I hope they come out with a new set of legendaries soon that are “not based on RNG” so people can calm the kitten down.

after 12 tries, I am able to get my Twilight precursor. Do I wish that I could’ve gotten it on first try? Of course I do. But do I think the system is broken? Not at all.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185

Zoom your view to 1 month.

Next time, please look at a chart before you talk. No, I never proclaimed Dusk to be stable in price, or precursors period, but just looking at it now, it is actually massively more stable than many other items.

For something in such high demand with low supply, I’m in awe of how the price stayed as steady as it has.

2 Precursors that have been wildly less stable over the last month, and are much better examples, are Chaos Gun and Energizer. But because neither one is dusk no one noticed and no one cares amirite?

From its last price jump (October 12), the average for Dusk sell has been around 375g.
Even taking the recent spike to 430 as an absolute indication of value fluctuation (irresponsible, but for argument’s sake), the variance is 55 gold from the mean ‘stable’ value, or in other words 14% variance in the positive direction.
The low mark of 310 sets it at 17% in the negative direction, since 10/12.

This is INCREDIBLY low variance, for a time span (almost a month) that is a little less than half the total time the game has been out (2 months and change)

For your enjoyment, here are some other common items, and their peak fluctuation ranges since 10/12. Selected at random:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19702
Platinum Ore: 23c -> 44c peak, or 91% increase.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24293
Vial of Thick Blood: 40c -> 65c peak, or 62.5% increase 40c -> 20c low, or 50% decrease.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/12128
Omnomberry: I’m not even sure what happened on the 24th.

I’m incredibly glad you guys enjoy taking sound bites and trying to turn them into points of argument. Parisalchuk, that IS in fact what politicians like to do.

The reason I continue to put the work in to break apart and look more closely at people’s claims is exactly this. You need facts to back up what you are saying. I expect dusk to be instable/increase in price moving forward, given the market demand relative to supply. However for one reason or another, it seems to be rather stable. My best guess is that the ticket price simply prices out the majority of the market for it. Price spikes will follow when individual wealth catches up with price, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. This is the nature of inflation in games, and will happen to most if not all sought after items that are in short supply. This “problem”, if you regard it to be one, is not isolated to precursors.

Frankly, I think if ANet regards the price as a problem, the fix is as simple as improving the particle effects on all the legendaries that aren’t Greatswords, or equalizing the importance of underwater combat (an underwater equivalent of Plinx will be all it takes). I really enjoy it when people say “precursor” but they really mean “dusk”.

Did you know the cheapest precursor is about 12g? A great many are still available under 100g.

LFk.1408:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185

Zoom your view to 1 month.

Next time, please look at a chart before you talk. No, I never proclaimed Dusk to be stable in price, or precursors period, but just looking at it now, it is actually massively more stable than many other items.

For something in such high demand with low supply, I’m in awe of how the price stayed as steady as it has.

2 Precursors that have been wildly less stable over the last month, and are much better examples, are Chaos Gun and Energizer. But because neither one is dusk no one noticed and no one cares amirite?

From its last price jump (October 12), the average for Dusk sell has been around 375g.
Even taking the recent spike to 430 as an absolute indication of value fluctuation (irresponsible, but for argument’s sake), the variance is 55 gold from the mean ‘stable’ value, or in other words 14% variance in the positive direction.
The low mark of 310 sets it at 17% in the negative direction, since 10/12.

This is INCREDIBLY low variance, for a time span (almost a month) that is a little less than half the total time the game has been out (2 months and change)

For your enjoyment, here are some other common items, and their peak fluctuation ranges since 10/12. Selected at random:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19702
Platinum Ore: 23c -> 44c peak, or 91% increase.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24293
Vial of Thick Blood: 40c -> 65c peak, or 62.5% increase 40c -> 20c low, or 50% decrease.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/12128
Omnomberry: I’m not even sure what happened on the 24th.

I’m incredibly glad you guys enjoy taking sound bites and trying to turn them into points of argument. Parisalchuk, that IS in fact what politicians like to do.

The reason I continue to put the work in to break apart and look more closely at people’s claims is exactly this. You need facts to back up what you are saying. I expect dusk to be instable/increase in price moving forward, given the market demand relative to supply. However for one reason or another, it seems to be rather stable. My best guess is that the ticket price simply prices out the majority of the market for it. Price spikes to follow when individual wealth catch up with price. This is the nature of inflation in games, and will happen to most if not all sought after items that are in short supply. This “problem”, if you regard it to be one, is not isolated to precursors.

Frankly, I think if ANet regards the price as a problem, the fix is as simple as improving the particle effects on all the legendaries that aren’t Greatswords, or equalizing the importance of underwater combat. I really enjoy it when people say “precursor” but they really mean “dusk”.

Did you know the cheapest precursor is about 12g?

My post wasnt targeted solely at just you, and I have been claiming the prices arent stable since the beginning. But thanks for trying to use me to make a point….

I actually see a lot of Dusks with people on Northern Shiverpeaks amongst respectable people in Cursed Shore.

I don’t believe they exploited since they are respectable people I farm with.

I think the biggest issue with Dusk/Twilight is the skin is so cool, the demand is too high, and no one wants to sell it once they get it.

They are pretty hardcore farmers though. They didn’t have any good advice for me either! :/

ANET intended legendaries to be a 3 month goal, so I think mission successful.. Kinda?

Parisalchuk.9230:

My post wasnt targeted solely at just you, and I have been claiming the prices arent stable since the beginning. But thanks for trying to use me to make a point….

The beginning of the game? Of course they aren’t stable from the beginning of the game. NOTHING is.

1 week in, the richest player probably has 50-70g. A dusk generally cost an extremely wealthy player his entire bankroll.

Fast forwarding to today, it’s about the same. The price is a reflection of the economy. Sought after items increase as wealth increases. Is this foreign to most?

Look at it from the point of view of in-game economy for a while. This whole legendary business is a huge gold sink. Let’s imagine for a while you (when I say you, I mean anyone) and your full magic find set went on this farming spree and sold everything to vendors or on Trading Post instead of scrapping 1/4 of your rare+ items in Mystic Forge (note: vendors is the important part as on TP the gold only changes ownership).

How much gold didn’t enter the system or change owners? If people could throw around 100s of gold like it was nothing, we could be seeing pretty nice inflation. That would make it even harder to buy a precursor on TP.

I was able to make 3 gold yesterday just by having fun. Only guild MF was active, I think. Played some www, did orichalcum runs, dragon here and there, Plinx for a bit, did 3 explorable runs of Ascalonian Catacombs. I had a nice day. A hundred more days like that and I could buy Dusk on TP. If I could be bothered to farm lodestones, sell ectoplasm, spin the market a bit and do other money-making activities, I can imagine making 8 gold a day easily.

Depending on how much time a day/week/month you can and wish to invest into it. We can all get there eventually. The difference is in how we decide to get there.

I want to craft a legendary eventually and have no problem with RNG. My vote would be against set recipes and introducing more options. Magic find working on Mystic Forge would be ridiculous as well as higher world drop rate (with all the dragon and event farming already going on).

LFk.1408:

Parisalchuk.9230:

My post wasnt targeted solely at just you, and I have been claiming the prices arent stable since the beginning. But thanks for trying to use me to make a point….

The beginning of the game? Of course they aren’t stable from the beginning of the game. NOTHING is.

1 week in, the richest player probably has 50-70g. A dusk generally cost an extremely wealthy player his entire bankroll.

Fast forwarding to today, it’s about the same. The price is a reflection of the economy. Sought after items increase as wealth increases. Is this foreign to most?

I said that beginning. I ment since we started this discussion on RNG ruining legendary items and the prices growing to outrageous amounts.

Those who said it would be fine and nothing should change pointed to the market balancing out and becoming stable. Last week when I brought up this point that prices still had climbed in past weeks I was ridiculed and told prices we stable and this was were it would stay. That 300 seemed to be the average a person had to put in in order go get a precursor out. Certainly an over night jump of 100 gold on the item puts those statements into question. We shall see if the price comes back down or if 450 is now the new norm.

And your point that item cost increase as player wealth increase is a false statement. Price will be reflective on how much a person put in to get an item in addition to current supply and current player wealth. When people first got precursors at the start of the game they priced them above how much they put in so they could make a profit. At this time the RNG rate was completely unknown due to the fact those that got these items early got very favorable generated numbers, so the average person who got these items only put in 20-50 gold so selling for x2 profit seem smart at the time when that player considers the supply of gold to the population.

Now up to last week it was hoped that the average person was only going to have to put in 300-400 gold to have a reasonable shot at getting there desired precursor, and that will cause the market to stabilize to that cost (no one is going to pay 500 gold for an item that only costs 300 to make), however I see that with the continued research of players showing it takes the average player many more attempts then we originally had hoped, and the starting of a rise in price of cheaper exotics due to lower supply due to lower farming since Halloween has ended the price will tend to go up… as it did last night.

I truly find comical how you argue and chit chat with a serious mood, about market variance and different price fluctuation, when it’s just a 11yo kid who , with this eyes O___O for his drop, just wrote 430g haha and just an other kid wrote an other random big number which was 310g. Price made by people who cannot even imagine themself having that kind of cash neither after 2 years playing and if one day someone will even be able to pay their offer. But still, some people seems serious when they talk about market variables, vendors who deeply analyze the market variables before put that price, influx of money, etc, just for a stupid exotic with a text at the end allowing to be used for legendary, 10% of the path, haha

Parisalchuk.9230:

And your point that item cost increase as player wealth increase is a false statement. Price will be reflective on how much a person put in to get an item in addition to current supply and current player wealth.

So then it’s not a false statement then, is it.
It’s good that you contradicted yourself in the next sentence because at least you were right about it.

“Costs of sought after items increase as wealth increases.” This is exactly what I said, and it’s called inflation. It is very well known, this isn’t my personal opinion. In the real world this applies to necessities. In the video game world, any items that enter the system at a slower rate than money does will be susceptible to this effect.

I also emphasize sought after, because while Putrid Essences are technically rare and probably enter the game at a fairly slow rate relative to money, they do nothing so they just accumulate and thus do not inflate in value.

Of course the cost of making an item is important. I didn’t say it wasn’t. You also mention supply, which is relevant of course, but pretty much the same variable as “cost to make”, if you think about it (they are direct inverses).

Anyway, the point people are probably trying to make about the inflation thing is that in general, people are worried that the cost of a precursor they want will rise faster than they can make money. If this is a concern, why not consider my suggestion? If the other legendary items were improved in terms of particle effects (let’s be honest, this is all the legendary is), it would be a balancing force. Certainly there will be a split in demand still, but it would not be as wide as it is now (12 g <——> 430 g), especially if some truly great effects are added to the ones considered junk-y now.

The effect would be two-fold, in that it borrows from the high supply of the less desirable precursors and increases item variability. With the demand more balanced across more legendaries, the demand for the top-end ones will decrease. It would provide immediate price mitigation, and increase long term supply.

FTR, I don’t have this stash of Venoms i’m trying to drive up the price on. If ANet seriously considers this option of generating some new particle effects, it would be up to them to balance how to announce it. I really think that this is one of the most user-friendly approaches to “fixing” this situation, as it doesn’t involve direct market intervention, and actually brings about improvements to the game itself.

The flip side is, if you feel that Greatswords and Staves will forever just be cooler than all the other weapons, no matter how much they tweak it, I guess this suggestion falls short of addressing the pricing problem.

@kaspi.7164

The mistake you are making is assuming that the people complaining actually understand how the legendaries work with respect to the economy overrall. The irony is w/o the mystic forge sucking out those rares and crafting material we will end up in a situation where the value of goal is extremely low.

But sadly their most of them believe a long term goal should be instantly achievable.

silvermember.8941:

But sadly their most of them believe a long term goal should be instantly achievable.

Please don’t strawman. Nobody asks for precursors to be easy to get. We’d just want it to be more predictable

Azelroth.6801:

Most of the people that are against having the system changed have already gotten their legendary/precursor and would rather the system not change so they have exclusivity for as long as possible.

I doubt this is true at all, since I don’t think I’m alone among the people opposed to most of the suggested changes, despite having less than 10g total on all my characters, including the gold value of equipment.

But even if it is true that people who already have legendaries want to maintain their exclusivity, that’s only relevant in response to suggestions to make it far easier to obtain. And yet, every time someone posts in one of these threads saying they shouldn’t be easy to obtain, since they’re called “legendary” for a reason, they get shouted down as arguing against a straw man. “We don’t want them easier,” they claim, “we just want to know we’re making progress over time.” There have even been suggestions to make it harder on average (i.e. more exclusive and more expensive) than it currently is, just so long as it’s a goal toward which you can make measurable progress.

So if it’s true that the people complaining aren’t simply whining that it’s too hard, then it must also be true that people arguing against them aren’t doing so simply because they want the precursors club to remain exclusive. Because if the complainers aren’t asking for the process to be made easier, then they’re not asking for the club to become less exclusive. They just want it to be easier to predict who will be in it and how much longer they themselves can expect to wait.

All things equal a precursor is a crafted item, if you put enough supply in you WILL get one out. Now it comes down to average cost to do that +/- a relative cost of risk. Now if it truely costs 300 gold worth of exotics to put into the forge to get a precursor out, then people are not going to pay 600 gold for that precursor just because there is little supply and high demand. Instead people are gonna take that money saved, buy exotics and make it themselves.

Your whole point of inflation makes no sense when you consider that while the price of supply is relatively constant and the price of the product increases. Instead people are now coming to realize it takes more attempts thus costing them more money, and thus the sell price rises. This is independent of the fact that players wealth is increasing. Inflation only works on items that a person cannot produce for themselves. So unless the price of cheap exotics inflates (which it currently has not done yet since their demand is matched by their supply) the price of precursors should not being going up.

This is all truely unrelated to the point that legendaries are supposed to be items which show your skill and dedication to their game, something RNG does not prove. Being able to farm wealth (something that, while they claim to support, they actively try to stop) does not show skill or dedication, especially when the best way to make money outside of the market is through Cursed Shore Farming… which means you have a lvl 80 character and can do any AOE damage to tag a mob.

I dont know where the misconception is that people who want a recipe want it to be cheap. Make the recipe cost 100 gold to learn. Make it take ridiculous items. Then you can track progress. RNG does not allow that.

Two tries on Halloween, failed first, then got precursor ^_^ There were attempts days before then too, but… I didn’t keep track =( I only bought the fine ingredients while crafting the bows themselves. I still craft rares, but now I’m hunting exos, already have the clovers so only 90 ectos, 90,000 karma, 500 dungeon tokens, and 25 icy runestones to go.

oZii.2864:

Oh look someone who is obviously jealous of such luck.

Me jealous?
I look gamblers and who is wasting loads of money playing a roulette with mystic forge and exploiters with pity, honestly

silvermember.8941:

@kaspi.7164

The mistake you are making is assuming that the people complaining actually understand how the legendaries work with respect to the economy overrall. The irony is w/o the mystic forge sucking out those rares and crafting material we will end up in a situation where the value of goal is extremely low.

But sadly their most of them believe a long term goal should be instantly achievable.

As people keep pointing out, making it easier isn’t necessarily everyone’s goal here. (Though the people who complain about wasting 100g or less in hopes to obtain something selling for 300g probably do simply wish they could be in the exclusive club for way less effort.)

—

A suggestion I’ve seen that would maintain the item sink and the average total difficulty, but which would at the same time make the process more predictable, would involve some kind of (account-bound) MF token. You could get some number of these (or even just some chance of getting at most 1) from each MF combine of items high enough level to possibly get a precursor. While you still might get the precursor after only a few attempts, you could also eventually forge it directly. Say, by putting one level 80 exotic of the same type into the forge along with 3 stacks of the tokens.

And then the drop rate for tokens could be adjusted to keep the precursors just as rare as (or even rarer than) they already are, on average, while also making it clear how much progress people are making toward definitely being able to get one.

For example, suppose a combine of level 80 rares had a 50% chance of dropping a single token. And assume that the precursor’s direct drop rate stays at about 0.1% for an input of 4 level 80 rares. Then after 1000 combines, if you still hadn’t gotten your precursor, at least you’d have about 500 of these tokens. Do another 500 combines and you’ll likely have nearly the full 750 you need.

Sure, it’s still technically RNG, but a much more forgiving and predictable version. Furthermore, it would still eat up rares and exotics and would still keep precursors at about the same price they already are.

—

(For a note on the math: with 0.1% drop rate on precursors, there’s a 37% chance you won’t get one after 1000 tries, and there’s still a 13.5% chance you won’t have one after 2000, and a 5% chance you won’t have one even after 3000. With a 50% drop rate on tokens you need 750 of, the variance is much lower. Sure, there’s a 50% chance you won’t have your full 750 after 1500 forge attempts, but at that point there’s something like a 97% chance that you have at least 700 of them.)

LFk.1408:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29185

Zoom your view to 1 month.

Next time, please look at a chart before you talk. No, I never proclaimed Dusk to be stable in price, or precursors period, but just looking at it now, it is actually massively more stable than many other items.

For something in such high demand with low supply, I’m in awe of how the price stayed as steady as it has.

2 Precursors that have been wildly less stable over the last month, and are much better examples, are Chaos Gun and Energizer. But because neither one is dusk no one noticed and no one cares amirite?

From its last price jump (October 12), the average for Dusk sell has been around 375g.
Even taking the recent spike to 430 as an absolute indication of value fluctuation (irresponsible, but for argument’s sake), the variance is 55 gold from the mean ‘stable’ value, or in other words 14% variance in the positive direction.
The low mark of 310 sets it at 17% in the negative direction, since 10/12.

This is INCREDIBLY low variance, for a time span (almost a month) that is a little less than half the total time the game has been out (2 months and change)

For your enjoyment, here are some other common items, and their peak fluctuation ranges since 10/12. Selected at random:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19702
Platinum Ore: 23c -> 44c peak, or 91% increase.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24293
Vial of Thick Blood: 40c -> 65c peak, or 62.5% increase 40c -> 20c low, or 50% decrease.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/12128
Omnomberry: I’m not even sure what happened on the 24th.

I’m incredibly glad you guys enjoy taking sound bites and trying to turn them into points of argument. Parisalchuk, that IS in fact what politicians like to do.

The reason I continue to put the work in to break apart and look more closely at people’s claims is exactly this. You need facts to back up what you are saying. I expect dusk to be instable/increase in price moving forward, given the market demand relative to supply. However for one reason or another, it seems to be rather stable. My best guess is that the ticket price simply prices out the majority of the market for it. Price spikes will follow when individual wealth catches up with price, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. This is the nature of inflation in games, and will happen to most if not all sought after items that are in short supply. This “problem”, if you regard it to be one, is not isolated to precursors.

Frankly, I think if ANet regards the price as a problem, the fix is as simple as improving the particle effects on all the legendaries that aren’t Greatswords, or equalizing the importance of underwater combat (an underwater equivalent of Plinx will be all it takes). I really enjoy it when people say “precursor” but they really mean “dusk”.

Did you know the cheapest precursor is about 12g? A great many are still available under 100g.

Your numbers are only persuasive if you look at the numbers relatively. But when it comes to the actual amount of money there are probably no greater fluctuations than those of Dusk. A change from 380g to 430g is 50g which is huge. Even when you look at items like platinum in bulk you don’t get those kind of numbers soon. A person would have to buy 23809 platinum ores at 44 copper in order to suffer the same gold loss from the price increase as if he were buying Dusk. That’s why it’s a lot more normal for cheaper items to have greater fluctuations. Comparing examples like platinum ore and Dusk is completely ridiculus.

I doubt anyone here who’s trying to buy Dusk will be comforted by the fact that they’ll only have to pay a 14% variance increase when that variance translates into 50 gold.

And yes, not every precursor is as problematic as Dusk and I’m sorry that we keep saying "precursors"instead of “those particular precursors that are extremely expensive and are rising in price”. It’s semantics but it doesn’t change anything. Even if there’s a problem with only one precursor it’s still a problem and it should be resolved.