Guild Wars 2

Of course that data base is horrendously small considering the amount actually opened… I opened 2 chests. Got the Ghastly Shield skin… I really don’t imagine it being quite as low as what is posted on that forum.

yes i was wondering if anyone knew how to obtain the mad king armor and info would help thanks :o)

Assuming all 2 million players open 1 black lion chest, with a 1/5000 chance of receiving it, that puts around 400 skins on the market. That’s baseline. Take the current number of skins on the market and multiply by 5000 to get an idea of how many chests were bought specifically for the skins.

kaffaljidhma.1496:

Taisaku.3492:

The sample size is far too small for a 1/10 chance to be determined in 15 openings. As many have said in the thread before, some people get really lucky, other are completely unlucky.

At 15 openings, the probability that a chest with 1/10 chance will drop an item is 20%. At 20, it’s 12%. At 30, it’s less than 5%. This is why I’m mystified when people say they’ve opened chests in the hundreds. After a certain amount, you need to stop what you’re doing and re-evaluate your assumptions.

Honestly, I don’t believe the people who’ve said they’ve spend upwards to $100 USD. However, it’s pretty easy to imagine someone paying for say 3200 gems ($40 USD) in the hopes of getting some skins for themselves (because only one character can use a skin at a time) and maybe selling a few others. The problem with this is, they more than likely purchased all their keys at the same time. That leaves them two options. Stockpile the keys and hope that drop rates are later revised, or just keep opening. While it’s not the most intelligent way to go about something this unknown. It’s very likely exactly what happened.

100 total chests. I have recieved 2 ugly halloween shoulders i immediatly got rid of for 1g. Cash shop RNG. LOL AT THE FAIL

im guessing that its going to be released/revealed in another act. Haven’t seen any chat about it in game.

You can get the skins from the trading post, yes, but that doesn’t make it okay. In order for those to appear in the trading post, they needed people to gamble to get them. The drop rate is so shamefully low that you should attempt to do the math of how many people sank both gold and real world money into the keys and see just how devious it actually is. Buying them from the trading post only hides the issue.

1.82%.. I wouldnt say its good but I dont think it warrants the tons of threads about it

Kiraki.9761:

kaffaljidhma.1496

This was last night, which was the night after all the people with tons of gold went and played the chest game for what it was worth and coincidentally drove the gem price to 1g/100 gems. I’m sorry you missed it.

I did not miss anything, I have been checking the prices daily and yesterday they where already well over 20 gold. Perhaps you just got lucky with a random person selling it for very low.

Also the gem price has also been close to 1g/100 gems for quite a while now, that is actually how I bought my gems on they day the event started.

This is the sword I’m talking about. You might be thinking of the scythe or the chainsaw greatsword.

Hmmm, I remember reading last night that the chance to get any specific skin in the chests was 1 in 500. Since there are six weapon skins, that would make it a 1.2% chance to get any weapon skin at all.

I wish I could direct you to a site, but I can’t seem to find it anymore. O.o

It’s rather amusing to see some of the complaints even after ArenaNet has given them another go with the Mad King Chest option.

For those of you who think ArenaNet should tweak the odds of the chest in your favor with this update, has it slipped your mind while you’re feeling entitled, or are you too blinded by your own selfishness to see how that would be incredibly unfair to the players who put in anywhere from tens to hundreds of dollars, or hours earning gold, to purchase keys to open the Black Lion Chest at the initial odds in order to get the skin they want? Or those players who bought them off the Trading Post when they commanded a much heftier price tag because of their rarity?

And to those who whined about how they’ve spent X amount of dollars and they’re not getting the skin they want, or how this is ruining Halloween and the game for them and their dog, or how they won’t be spending any more money on gems because they feel cheated and they’re going to some other kiddy-gloved MMO to spend their money on, here’s a bit of a wake-up call: You’re not entitled. Life doesn’t owe you anything and ArenaNet certainly should not go out of the way to make YOU, out of so many players, feel special and give you everything you want because you are exceptional at whining.

The skins were meant to be rare. ArenaNet has not in any way misrepresented how the rewards will be given, they did not guarantee you that you will get a skin every ten chests opened. Even if they did, you’d probably find some other thing to complain about, like how you didn’t get the skin you specifically want after opening 50 chests. Haters are going to hate. Whiners are going to find something to whine about.

If anything, I do feel sorry for folks like Shirahama and MikeRocks, who are the real losers out of this deal, because ArenaNet decided to be nice and obliged the other folks who excelled at complaining.

Life isn’t half as kind. If you dumped in a hundred thousand in the casino thinking you’re going to come out with that ten million jackpot, but ended up walking away with nothing, life will not be giving you a second chance in the form of a Mad King Chest. So learn to appreciate it.

Apart from all that rant (It had to be done. It was rather disgusting to see how selfish, entitled and self-justified some folks can be), I’m enjoying the Halloween event tremendously. It is a good piece of work. Well done.

Taisaku.3492:

kaffaljidhma.1496:

Taisaku.3492:

The sample size is far too small for a 1/10 chance to be determined in 15 openings. As many have said in the thread before, some people get really lucky, other are completely unlucky.

At 15 openings, the probability that a chest with 1/10 chance will drop an item is 20%. At 20, it’s 12%. At 30, it’s less than 5%. This is why I’m mystified when people say they’ve opened chests in the hundreds. After a certain amount, you need to stop what you’re doing and re-evaluate your assumptions.

Honestly, I don’t believe the people who’ve said they’ve spend upwards to $100 USD. However, it’s pretty easy to imagine someone paying for say 3200 gems ($40 USD) in the hopes of getting some skins for themselves (because only one character can use a skin at a time) and maybe selling a few others. The problem with this is, they more than likely purchased all their keys at the same time. That leaves them two options. Stockpile the keys and hope that drop rates are later revised, or just keep opening. While it’s not the most intelligent way to go about something this unknown. It’s very likely exactly what happened.

It’s one of those things like using keep depot supply for trebuchets then.

Snow.5269:

Came across this on the Guru

http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/72647-black-lion-chest-halloween-r-d-thread/

Black Lion Chests Opened: 2,027

Probability of a Halloween skin using current sample data: .0182

This applies to Black Lion Chests only. Not the Mad King chests that were recently introduced.

well i’m running on 1 scythe skin out of 10 boxes

Maylojager.1307:

Sadly this implementation got me to feel even worse – opened 43 chests, got gift of the moon (figured alot of other players got it aswell). Now the worse part is that exactly 12hours ago (4hours before implementation) I’ve crafted myself this recipe. Due to the fact that alot of players got it without crafting – the price has dropped down from 14g to 3g (the price @ the current moment) and it will continue to fall.

Seriously?! Well…. son of a kitten. I literally just made all three of those stupid recipes last night via the Mystic Forge so that I could craft them at my leisure later. That’s a good 36-ish gold just flushed down the drain for no real reason.

Serpent Kiss.9610:

If anything, I do feel sorry for folks like Shirahama and MikeRocks, who are the real losers out of this deal, because ArenaNet decided to be nice and obliged the other folks who excelled at complaining.

Haha, thanks for the sentiment. I usually seem to be on the losing side of these deals.

Luckily, I’m still loving costume brawl, I have basically everything that I want from the Halloween event (including an Endless Halloween Tonic!), and I know I have plenty of time to make up my losses.

I’m looking forward to the rest of the Halloween Acts and, in the future, the Christmas Event.

I’m kind of glad to have pretty much everything I want at the moment (even though I technically lost a ton of gold in the deal), ’cause now I can just relax and enjoy the event.

I love the kids that say just say to “BUY THEM FROM BLACK LION TRADING!”

Hey SMART GUY – how do they get there in the first place if nobody gets them from CHESTS?

kaffaljidhma.1496:

This is the sword I’m talking about. You might be thinking of the scythe or the chainsaw greatsword.

Yeah my character has no use for a sword at all so I was automatically thinking of the scythe and greatsword. So it seems unless you can use a sword, you are just out of luck when it comes to getting these skins.

Agreed. I’m more kitten off now than I was when I accepted wasting 50$ on keys. Now I get to waste the items I got from the 50$ worth of chests opened. So before I at least had boosters. Now I have nothing.

It was a cool idea but I mean… the chances are the same as the freakin Black Lion Chests – which is to be expected but seriously lol

CaptSlate.6205:

I like to play games to have fun, Anet throughout Guild Wars 1 was by far and away the best company to ever, and I mean EVER buy a game from.

I assume you mean for mmos.

All I am trying to say I guess with this long winded post, is Black Lion Chests are just like every other game now, wastes of time, money, and effort. I wish we could have just had the skins in the cash shop, because the people that really want them, at least in my mind, don’t want to be a unique snowflake (cause this is a game after all, you’re unique, in a field of snowflakes) They just want to look cool all to themselves, you spend most of your time in this game with yourself, not the guy with the sword skin you want, what does it matter how “unique” it is.

I can understand adding the skins to the shop but I would kinda bet people would complain about the price….but bet it would be less complaining.

Also still thinks its to early for the complaining as a whole when still 3 more acts to go where something from left field could hit like a recipe for them, being offered in the store, etc etc.

50$ and 10g on gems for keys day 1 of the event. Out of all the chests I opened – no loot. Opened tons of Mad King chests – no loot. Really I feel more kitten off about that because now my 10g and 50$ worth of boosters is gone. Sweet.

yeah well were not from TF2, alot of us are from GW1 and we are more inclined to expect things to work more along the lines of how they did there then all the other money hungery MMO’s.

Far as the Mad King Chests, They seem to be a bigger gamble then the Black Lion Chests, I actually got better loot from the Personalized Trick or Treat Bags then I did the Mad King Chests.

I opened 100 Black Lion Chests, And out of those 100, 3 Skins.
I opened 100 Mad King Chests, And out of those 100, I got 1 Skin.
I opened 144 Personalized Trick or Treat Bags, and out of them I Got 9 Sigal/Rune Recipes.

Mostly what I received from the Mad King Chests were Tonics, Candy Corn, Plastic Fangs and Chattering Skulls, I did make 2 sigils with the junk i got from the Mad King Chests.

So… Far as thanks to anet for ‘Improving chances of getting a skin’ There wont be any from here, The Mad King Chests are even more of a gamble then the Black Lion Chests were.

With the way Anet has been doing things, I hate to say it but they are quickly becoming just “Another MMO” and losing all that zeal that the Guild Wars game had, and kept many of us Guildwars players to continue to play.

I’ll keep playing, till i feel i got my moneys worth out of the game, but, The Holiday Zeal that the Good old GuildWars Name brought to us old time players, Has been lost into the typical jaw of “Micro Transactions” of other MMO’s.

So if im going to Congratulate ANet for anything this Halloween at this point, its Jumping on the bandwagon of Other MMO’s and losing the Zest and Appeal that the Guildwars Name use to bring at the holidays.

I have tons of boosters and tonics that I won’t even use so for me this is actually a good one.

Been playing mmorpg’s and mmo’s since the days of Ultima and Everquest. Due to rates like this and BS luck I’ve never gotten anything super rare or awesome. Not on the santa fly in EQ nor the shoot developers for gold in world of tanks. I’m really tired of the super gambling I really am. I don’t want stuff to be zomg super easy but rrrrr…

Over 350 bags opened as well ‘n’ no endless tonic. Bleh, years of this kinda stuff is gets old. =/

Mkalafut.1273:

Now I have nothing.

I really hate this line. You didn’t get nothing, you got other items. You may not like them but you got them.

Really I’m wondering right now if killstreaks boosters are bugged for it or can’t be used for sure.

Pray-tell just what is a Mad King chest? Is this just some name everyone has chosen for the Black Lion Chests during this event?

kaffaljidhma.1496:

It’s one of those things like using keep depot supply for trebuchets then.

Exactly

Kiraki.9761:

kaffaljidhma.1496:

This is the sword I’m talking about. You might be thinking of the scythe or the chainsaw greatsword.

Yeah my character has no use for a sword at all so I was automatically thinking of the scythe and greatsword. So it seems unless you can use a sword, you are just out of luck when it comes to getting these skins.

Greatsaw Greatsword

Scythe Staff

If you still have money and that 100 gems → 1 gold rate is holding like you said, then you might still have a chance based on these price trends. At the worst you’ll still have the 15 or so gold you’re willing to invest, which isn’t a small amount considering how much gems were worth pre-event.

I converted to about 20 of the new chests, I didn’t get anything really cool. What I did get, that the BL chests lacked, was holiday themed stuff. This made opening the chests a lot more fun.

I wasn’t pleased with the drop rate of the skins and such in the BL chests, but I was even less pleased that all you got was the same stuff you got if you opened one last week. Not very Halloweeny. So to me, this was great! Sure it’s loads of candy corn, which you can get anywhere, but at least it’s themed stuff. Fun stuff.

I was on the side of the complainers before (though not quite to the degree), but now I really do think you guys are being bratty and feeling entitled.

I thought we were better than this. I thought we were more mature than this.

ANET, kudos for creating the Mad King Chests. I like them so much, I bought more keys to open my BL chests and threw that crap into the forge, never expecting a cool skin, just wanting to be surprised with random Halloween goodies!. Hooray for fun!

It’s a nice addition for those who’d rather not spend real money on chests.
The items required, although not useless, aren’t worth any money, and even if you can’t use or don’t want the items you were given you can sell them.

I received a couple of materials I could sell for some money. I didn’t mind not getting a weapon because I didn’t expect to get one in the first place, and I was happy with the candy corn and the trick or treat bag I got. I’m saving up all mine and open them on the 31st as I always do during GW’s Halloween events.

People seem to value the weapons skins a lot. I suppose it’s different for everyone.
I like the new weapons but I don’t care enough to spend money on chests. I like the Aviator Cap I bought earlier and I’m enjoying the event in general.

I suppose it’s impossible to make everyone happy but I hope you all get the weapon you like best.

epicsmooth.7825:

Mkalafut.1273:

Now I have nothing.

I really hate this line. You didn’t get nothing, you got other items. You may not like them but you got them.

Really I’m wondering right now if killstreaks boosters are bugged for it or can’t be used for sure.

Well, definately not “nothing” per say, but trading my boosts for a bunch of skill level 75 crafting items when i’m allready at 400 in most disciplines feels pretty close to it.

I just can’t believe people who is still complaining…

I mean I do feel sorry for the persons didn’t get what they wanted after opening so many chests, however Anet felt sorry for those who didn’t get anything from BLC and gave you another chance with the Junks you got.

I have never seen a MMO developers cared so much and listened so much about their customers, in other MMO developers they probably just ignore it or worse, makes you buy MORE chest like item with your real money.

Sure, you spent your real money and got only junks and with that junks you got more junks, that’s pretty upsetting, yes, I will be too. But think of it that the game developers you contribute by giving additional real money cares about you, and they probably feel sorry to you as well when you didn’t get the things you wanted.

But it is a Game after all, they have to make some stuff rare enough so that people can actually be unique.

I mean, do you really want to play a game where everybody can have same exact looks as you do?
And for those who are unlucky, I’m sure your time will come soon and get you those super rare items!

Nox Aeterna.2965:

PotatoOverdose.6583:

Nox Aeterna.2965:

If this event does not show you that Nexon got more than a “little” say on what Anet can or cannot do , then i dont know what could.

Because good skins = good items. Right.

…
This game is about skins , good items are items with good skins.
…

This game is about having fun. You don’t need skins to have fun in this game because skins don’t influence the game at all. You still cannot have fun without some special skins? As I see it is your problem, not the problem of the game.

I’d just like it if Anet would post the odds of item drops before anti-farming algorithms kicks in so we can make an informed decision. People like to compare chest to casinos, but atleast casinos print the odds of winning.

I would think people would complain less if they knew the odds before committing. I think the popular political word would be “Transparency”.

I was excited because the new chests were a second shot.. with better rates maybe. However the rates were just as bad ‘n’ I still got nothing. Nothing in so many of these exact same things in so many games. It gets really old! I’m a pretty patient person really.. heck I waited 3 years to get all 3 bloody WoW children day pets back in the day.

I’m just sick of the only things I keep getting after YEARS is the same ol BS. Stuff I was hard work to over years. Not one kitten really rare and desired thing sent my way. I mean the real deal the skins, endless tonic, or something. Not easy to get green level stuff. =/

" They knew it was a chance and when they lost…"

While true, it is also only half the story. The key buyers knew there was only a chance. but they didn’t know what the chance was. It could have been 1 in 3, 1 in 10, or even 1 in 25. No one but the Anet devs know the exact chance. So they took the chance that it was better than 1 in 50 or 1 in 100, and lost that bet.

Now if the players knew the exact chance of a drop before anti-farming hit the chest, you would be in the clear to say “You knew the chances”.

wow i dont get the QQ

Anet gave you second chance to get these skins
you cried that you endup with xxxx usless tonics and boosters

now they gave you these, you QQ you use the “useless” items

lol

Mkalafut.1273:

I love the kids that say just say to “BUY THEM FROM BLACK LION TRADING!”

Hey SMART GUY – how do they get there in the first place if nobody gets them from CHESTS?

Oh! You mean those chests that DROP with keys that you get for PLAYING THE GAME and by no means have to buy?

If there are 1 million people playing, and each opens one chest that they got from their personal story, and the chances to get a skin are about 1.2%, that’s 12,000 skins. Of those, there are probably plenty who would rather just stick it on the TP in order to make some quick cash.

As long as you can get Black Lion Keys in game, there’ll be skins on the market that you can BUY rather than gamble for.

you buy it from the black lion trading company gem store

anonymity.9465:

yes i was wondering if anyone knew how to obtain the mad king armor and info would help thanks :o)

Press O when ingame,you can buy 2 halloween outfits for 700gems each.

You mean the costume? Gem store. It’s a town clothes set with costume brawl abilities. It costs 700 gems for the set and it’s account bound.

Or if you mean the stuff at the top of this page http://www.gw2db.com/search?search=mad+King%27s#t1:items

No idea, must be from one of the unreleased acts.

LOL, opened all my mad king chests and basically i swapped 30 boosters and 90 tonics for 300 candy corns, 30 crafting items and 6 (yes you read that, 6) tonics – YAY! (i guess).

Well that does it for me, i’m certainly not buying keys anymore – i mean the solution to the problem gave me even worse (less) than what i had. I mean not even a 4 hour skin in each chest? (they last 4 hours!).
—-
What i find fun is, before the halloween update i was having a great time and during the halloween update i’m just annoyed, man i wish i could trade everything back for my gems.

Don’t tell others what they need to have fun, that’s Anet’s job. If a customer thinks he is not getting enough buck for his money he will simply leave, again that’s anet’s problem. No one needs to defend them, they have to do it themselves with good feedback!

I just think it should be expected that what comes out is better than what goes in (even if only by a bit), i put in 30 boosters (various kinds) and 90 tonics and got back 300 candy corns, 6 tonics (2×3 kinds) and 30 crafting material. So basically i swapped 90 tonics for 6 tonics, and 30 boosters for 10 candy corns and 1 crafting material a piece.

That to me just doesn’t seem like a very good trade off, so in the end for the 20+ gold i spend on BLC i got less than 1 gold worth of items (current market rate for the sellables). Convert that 20+ gold into the cash amount and i’d be even more unhappy.

I mean a 4 hour temp skin should drop from each box as standard at least (they’re 4 hours temp skins!) considering the costs involved, and even then i’d say the trade off is still pretty bad.

@MikeRocks 9243.

I,agree that items in general will be available as you say ,but the flaw in your thinking is that the complaints are referring to players wanting Halloween specific items ,for a short time event .
By your thought process you may not even get a key to drop before the event was over never mind the fact that you can reportedly buy 100 keys and receive absolutely nothing ,can you see now why there are so many complaints ?

I don’t mind that I spent money on keys or consumed all my boosters for candy corn and nougat centers but I now know better than to do it ever again.

I usually don’t gamble but I noticed myself getting a “high” from getting ready to open chests and a “low” from not getting anything,followed by an urge to burn more money for keys.
The whole gambling thing feels a bit insidious to me so I will be steering clear from it in the future.I can only imagine what people who are naturally drawn to gambling will be spending on this.

Yeah… I have to join several others.. I trashed the boosters I had saved up for alts.. for 34 chests of corn.. and polyjuice potions.. If one let me turn into an adult Hermoine.. fine.. but they are all just dead versions of all the hundreds of potions I have. 70 + BLC and 34 master chests and I got a couple skill 100 yellows.. and nada. Super Bummed… I have been so high on this game.. (would have 4 referrals if they had em) and yet.. I feel my joy turned to ash in my mouth. What a drag. 1 thing I could carry forward with me in the game.. other than free horns.. 1.. and I would have been.. well… not disgusted.

“You will be glad to hear that we are adding recipes to the Mystic Forge that will allow you to throw stuff you get from the Black Lion Chests into it to get a special Halloween chest (no key needed for this one). These chests will include Halloween specific loot and give you a second chance to get one of the terrifying rare Halloween skins.”

One comma, it can make such a difference n’est-pas?

what goes into the mystic forge and always comes out better? other than recipes of course..

Overunity.4273

I,agree that items in general will be available as you say ,but the flaw in your thinking is that the complaints are referring to players wanting Halloween specific items ,for a short time event .
By your thought process you may not even get a key to drop before the event was over never mind the fact that you can reportedly buy 100 keys and receive absolutely nothing ,can you see now why there are so many complaints ?

Nah, I understand the complaint and the frustration over the chests. I was just pointing out that, even without buying chests from the Black Lion, there will still be items in circulation due to them being available as drops and rewards in the game.

Personally, I would’ve liked to see a much higher drop rate as well, at the very beginning of the event. At the moment, though, all that can really hapkitten ANET taking away from this that drop rates for Holiday items need to be higher for the NEXT event, or them going with their current business model for the next Holiday and the PLAYERS learn not to purchase chests on such a slim chance.

Anything else they do now is just going to alienate one side or the other.

Do I think they should be handed out on a silver platter? Is the solution to use real life money to gamble for them no?

I understand Anet wan’ts to keep them a “rarity” and that they also need to make money.

However making the seasonal items everyone wants a real life money gamble is HORRIBLE. I mean out of all the things you could of done with the Gem store without putting a gamble on it and make just as much money is endless. The 2 costumes alone would have been amazing.

You could of made them a rare drop at least for people who can’t afford to gamble their life away for a Halloween skin. If you look at the amount of each skin in the trade post you never see more then 100 of that item.

100…. out of the entire game only 100? Not to mention it is overpriced!

WHY can’t we have a fair chance at the skins?

I’d just like it if Anet would post the odds of item drops before anti-farming algorithms kicks in so we can make an informed decision. People like to compare chest to casinos, but atleast casinos print the odds of winning.
I would think people would complain less if they knew the odds before committing. I think the popular political word would be “Transparency”.

This.

I didn’t use real money on chests, but I have to break a lance for the people who jumped into the “let’s buy keys for cool skins!” bandwagon.

I love a-net (I even hope to someday work for them when I finish my videogame designer degree) and admire their employers and how much love they put on the game, but when the announcement of those skins was made, the tone of the anouncement, placed as part of the event announcement, with an exclamation mark at the end and a screenshot of the Greatsaw, was more atractive than the result (I even though before the event that the announcement meant an assured Halloween skin per chest lol).

When you buy a lottery ticket, you can read the odds and what you get.

In this case there was only some flavor text announcing the cool skins for opening chests. I don’t think any of those buying keys figured the chances were so low.

If they did know and still they had bought them, then it would be their fault, but the new rewards were announced in a way that I think made most believe it was totally worth it to get some keys with real money when in fact it wasn’t in many cases.

I’m not saying they lied, because reading the announcement it’s clear they didn’t. But they didn’t “warn” it was a risk either. Of course one should be aware of the risk of chance based items, and I know exposing the things you sell as “not as rewarding” makes sells drop, but I think it woul’ve been better because next time most people won’t trust their announcement for this kind of stuff if they’re not strictly precise about it.

I don’t know who adviced them to do it this way, but I think he got it wrong.