Guild Wars 2

I still feel stunned by Josh’s response lol. Someone actually saying the drop rate. o_o

Ha and I thought you just got one instantly. My first run I got the exact skin I needed for that character. Yay!

Well, so much for consistency, I got 2 skins in 4 runs last night.

I should also mention, I got these skins while running with guildies. I have not yet received any skins running solo. Not sure if running with other people raises the drop rate perhaps? Just a curious thought, as I know some people have picked up skins doing SAB solo.

Chrisplosion.3756:

Reize.2176:

96 chests, 0 skins.

Your bad luck really puts mine in perspective…

Neither of you are to bad luck yet. 400 would be bad luck. Less than 100 is well within standard deviation .

Josh, you seriously rock (egads, I feel like someone’s embarrassing Dad trying to get down with the “Kids” saying that).
Transparency is a wonderful thing.

I haven’t bought gems since November, but I may very well do this weekend; the only thing stopping me is the fact that there’s no way of me flagging my purchase as a thank you to you and your team.
I want to encourage more developments like yours, where things are out in the open, fun and rewarding, with no random rewards that can’t be attained through other means.
I don’t want to encourage more of the exploitative stuff like Black Lion Chests.

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

Single most awesome post I’ve ever read from an official in any MMO. You are a generous god. Please don’t get fired.

I did enough runs to grind 4 weapons skins thats 100 chests and count em not one drop while my buddy had 3 drops in the same day

To contribute, I’ve bought 2 weapon skins with Bauble Bubbles and had 3 more drop; 2 shields, one of which I gave to a friend, and one staff.
I’m keeping the staff & shield skins to see how high the prices go in a month or two.
So that’s about 3 in 50 for me

Currently sitting at:
147 chests
2 skins.

Does that mean I’ll soon be due for another…? We shall see.

Nike.2631:

[snip]
Neither of you are to bad luck yet. 400 would be bad luck. Less than 100 is well within standard deviation .

I know that statistically you may be correct, but try being one of those people who’s been running since release, and hasn’t gotten any skins. It certainly feels like back luck :P

77 chests opened

One Shield
One Longbow

Probably 100+ chests opened, no skins…

Anet please check if something is wrong with my acc :P

I have opened 5 × 6 chests for 3 days on row.
No skins.
But today I got 2 greatsword skins… Which was amazing.

Glaxthor.1358:

Well, so much for consistency, I got 2 skins in 4 runs last night.

I should also mention, I got these skins while running with guildies. I have not yet received any skins running solo. Not sure if running with other people raises the drop rate perhaps? Just a curious thought, as I know some people have picked up skins doing SAB solo.

Thats what I’ve started to wonder. I’ve done all mine solo (except first run of zone 1 and 2), so I wonder if thats why I haven’t gotten one yet. Guess I might have to try to find some groups that are farming it.

ZenonSeth.5739:

skullmount.1758:

[snip]
Only the very end one (frog one/zone 3) or any of the zone ‘boss’ chest(s)?

I’ve gotten no skins, and I’ve done zone1 at least 10 times (most on the same character), zone 2 maybe 5 times, and haven’t completed zone 3 yet.

I know someone got a drop from Zone 1’s boss chest, so it’s definitely from any of the boss chests. Most of us are just not that lucky.

Yes, you can get a skin from all of the boss chests… I’ve personally gotten a skin from each chest, although I haven’t received a skin since the client update… I wonder if DR is a factor here or if its just pure luck?

Frost.2908:

[snip]
Yes, you can get a skin from all of the boss chests… I’ve personally gotten a skin from each chest, although I haven’t received a skin since the client update… I wonder if DR is a factor here or if its just pure luck?

DR? Also, whatever you meant by that abbreviation, I’m sure that’s it’s pure luck.
I’m going to do more runs when I get home today, but it’s getting really frustrating that I continuously get nothing. I’ve done runs both solo, and with group of 5, both completionist style (getting all baubles at one run, and most in other runs) and speed run to the end boss chest.

If anything, the fact that I haven’t gotten anything despite a variety of approaches shows that the system doesn’t take those into consideration and is only based on individual luck (or ANet’s RNG in this case)

Josh Foreman, you are officially my favorite ArenaNet employee. Thank you for HONESTY! I very much hope that you get a raise!

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

ITT: ANet tells us a drop rate, everyone is happy, and the virtual world economy doesn’t collapse. Seriously, go have a cup of coffee with John Smith and teach him your ways.

Thedes.8794:

Ha and I thought you just got one instantly. My first run I got the exact skin I needed for that character. Yay!

Nerf Thedes. Luck is OP in this one. :P

26 runs x 3 chests each = 78 chests, no skins
But I have traded in bauble bubbles for a backpack and a greatsword skin. Holding out for the sword, shield, and staff!

I have done runs for the bauble bubbles and I have done about 50 runs so about 100 chest and I havent gotten any skins from the chests

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

That depresses me greatly but really isn’t that surprising. I’ve run your SaB with all 8 of my characters from start to finish since the day it came out and only gotten a single skin to drop. It was the greatsword skin and I sold it instead of saving it for down the road like an idiot. Oh.. and to all the other peeps? I didn’t make a single new alt to keep spamming it either! Just the once through each day since it came out per character.

Guess you really want people to earn the skin sorta speak.

Solo
40 or so chests
1 skin

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

you say that but I disagree cause RNG is bad in this game.

PolarTank.5902:

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

you say that but I disagree cause RNG is bad in this game.

And I would agree, because I got my first skin in about 50 or less runs (having opened about 75 chests now

The chance of not getting a skin in 75 chests is actually pretty decent, to be honest (22%). Heck, there’s a 13% chance of not getting a skin after 100 runs! Basically, the take away from that is that you shouldn’t necessarily expect a skin after 50 runs because statistically RNG could hate you.

PolarTank.5902:

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

you say that but I disagree cause RNG is bad in this game.

I’m telling you, ANet’s RNG uses those last 4 digits appended to your account name as a seed. Which basically means you’re stuck with whatever luck you got from the beginning! Certainly would explain the consistently bad luck I have :P

Rising Dusk.2408:

The chance of not getting a skin in 75 chests is actually pretty decent, to be honest (22%). Heck, there’s a 13% chance of not getting a skin after 100 runs! Basically, the take away from that is that you shouldn’t necessarily expect a skin after 50 runs because statistically RNG could hate you.

Thankfully after 50 runs (assuming 3 chests per run) you’ll have 300 bauble bubbles, enough for 6 skins. The only difference being that this will make you 6 gold poorer, instead of earning you potentially 15g or so

ZenonSeth.5739:

Rising Dusk.2408:

The chance of not getting a skin in 75 chests is actually pretty decent, to be honest (22%). Heck, there’s a 13% chance of not getting a skin after 100 runs! Basically, the take away from that is that you shouldn’t necessarily expect a skin after 50 runs because statistically RNG could hate you.

Thankfully after 50 runs (assuming 3 chests per run) you’ll have 300 bauble bubbles, enough for 6 skins. The only difference being that this will make you 6 gold poorer, instead of earning you potentially 15g or so

50 runs is different then 50 chests. it’s 1 in 50 chest if we go by runs that 1 in 150. but yes your right about everything .

28 chests, 1 skin. (Longbow)

Dunno where I read it but is this true?

1 character only has a chance of getting it 1 time from each chest per day?

So if you had 5 characters and you did 1 full run with each 15 chances for the drop.

1 chest 1 sword skin : P

Excursion.9752:

Dunno where I read it but is this true?

1 character only has a chance of getting it 1 time from each chest per day?

So if you had 5 characters and you did 1 full run with each 15 chances for the drop.

That is true.

38 chests (running area 1/2 with 7 characters).
1 sword skin.
Endless enjoyment.

Knowing it’s 1 in 50 is cool. I was worried I was getting unlucky. Good to know it’s the other way around.

23 chests, 2 skins. Aint I lucky

I was extremely lucky. I got 2 skins running just 3 characters 3 zone each the first time. But then after many runs I haven’t got any more, haha.

Ugh. 75 chests, 0 skins.

But I’ve never had much luck with RNG. In 13 years of playing MMOs, I think I’ve gotten the item I’ve wanted maybe 2-3 times within the first 40 tries.

120 chests, 1 GS skin

Id like to know if people are getting their weapon skins running solo or with groups? Since the last patch I haven’t seen a skin drop, and pre-patch I received multiple skins both solo and grouped. Currently I speed run the instance, but I’m debating joining a party with my lack of drops lately…

Also what level character are you getting your skins on? I had received skins on both lvl 80’s and not, but my dry spell continues… lets work out the variables people!

Frost.2908:

Id like to know if people are getting their weapon skins running solo or with groups? Since the last patch I haven’t seen a skin drop, and pre-patch I received multiple skins both solo and grouped. Currently I speed run the instance, but I’m debating joining a party with my lack of drops lately…

Also what level character are you getting your skins on? I had received skins on both lvl 80’s and not, but my dry spell continues… lets work out the variables people!

after 18 runs now:
All solo
2 skins – staff and scepter
one character was level 80, the other one was 17 if I remember correctly
second skin dropped post patch

All of my runs have been in groups. I’ve only done solo runs in Infantile mode for completing the achievements.

So far, 70 chests and 0 skins.

Just to clarify: Posts here do not, in any way, shape, or form, constitute a random or representative sample of players. As has been stated before, one way or another, most of the posters here will be the most lucky and the most unlucky ones, meaning our distribution is going to look extremely funky.

ZenonSeth.5739:

I’m telling you, ANet’s RNG uses those last 4 digits appended to your account name as a seed. Which basically means you’re stuck with whatever luck you got from the beginning! Certainly would explain the consistently bad luck I have :P

Do you have evidence to back up this claim? I’m legitimately curious if this is true, because it would explain a hell of a lot.

8 chests. 1 skin.

grin

BlackIce.5276:

ZenonSeth.5739:

I’m telling you, ANet’s RNG uses those last 4 digits appended to your account name as a seed. Which basically means you’re stuck with whatever luck you got from the beginning! Certainly would explain the consistently bad luck I have :P

Do you have evidence to back up this claim? I’m legitimately curious if this is true, because it would explain a hell of a lot.

it’s obviously a conspiracy theory. A company would never distribute resources to create different RNG for every single player. Can you even imagine how much work that would be?
1/50 chance means that you only have 2% chance to loot a skin. Even if it was 50% you could still be unlucky and never get it. It’s a chance.
Edit to my post before this one:
after 26 runs:
All solo
3 skins – staff, scepter, short bow
two characters was level 80, the other one was 17 if I remember correctly
second and third skin dropped post patch

100 chests, 0 skins
Guildie had 30 chests, 2 skins

14 chests, 1 skin

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

Well, im lucky then. At least for now.

But decided to post to say im amazed that we had an official word. There is still hope.

I still have a question, though. 1/50 on the 1st time/char/day or 1/50 even if i open more than 1 time/day?

RNG gods are laughing at me. I finished the second level 8 times, and I’ve gotten 2 Mace skins. No Greatsword drops = a sad penguin.

All my skins have come solo.

BlackIce.5276:

ZenonSeth.5739:

I’m telling you, ANet’s RNG uses those last 4 digits appended to your account name as a seed. Which basically means you’re stuck with whatever luck you got from the beginning! Certainly would explain the consistently bad luck I have :P

Do you have evidence to back up this claim? I’m legitimately curious if this is true, because it would explain a hell of a lot.

No, I don’t, and as Mirta said, this is a conspiracy theory. I was only kidding when saying that. As Mirta pointed out, the resources to do this would be quite a lot, though I think it’s still doable, I doubt it’s the actual situation. Basically, I was just making a joke.

Also, even if ANet did something like that, they wouldn’t reveal those numbers to the public I think. (or would they? Hiding things in plain sight IS the best way to hide stuf… mwahaha) (srsly, I’m joking)