Guild Wars 2

I’m at 1 skin from about 53 chests, so it’s more or less right at the 1/50.

oh gosh, i never seen an official, straight answer to a drop rate question, i propose a petition for a promotion and a 2x salary rate to josh!!

answer “hail!” if you agree!

85~ chests 0 skins.

edit:
3 chests later.. Super short bow skin.

edit 2: (update this when i run it to add up total chests opened)

1 out of 132 so far.

I just want to let out a sincere thank you to Josh for letting us know the droprate. You don’t know how nice it is to hear it. Not sure why MMOs don’t like divulging that sort of information, it is EXTREMELY helpful and we love hearing it.

58 chests 4skins. Seems im lucky

Think I burned up all my luck in 1 shot… 1st chest, 1st run, got the sword skin.

Andrew.4506:

I just want to let out a sincere thank you to Josh for letting us know the droprate. You don’t know how nice it is to hear it. Not sure why MMOs don’t like divulging that sort of information, it is EXTREMELY helpful and we love hearing it.

Definitely agree!

Cant say how much runs i did so far, but ranging from 28-40 and got 2 great sword skins.

The profit

1 and a half runs, Greatsword skin.

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

Good guy Josh Foreman…

Works on a MMO

Straight up tells us the drop rate.

+1 interwebs to you, sir.

1/1 I got luck there is a guy in my guild thats 0/150

1skin after 55 chests, more chests 2 come

~50 full runs (zone 1/2/3 = 150 chests) no skin, then the 51st run I got the super Shortbow, and the 52nd run I got the Super Staff.

3 chests and greats word skin. the luck.

ZenonSeth.5739:

If anyone is interested, the totals so far:
948 chests reported open
17 skins reported found
~= 1.79% drop rate estimate

A quick calculation for the 95% Confidence Interval (which I think is accurate- I have a headache right now, and, honestly, I’m too lazy to go get my calculator) for this being .0179 +/- 0.008428 = (.9262%, 2.6328%), which seems to totally fit in line with the 1/50 (2%) chance given by the devs.

However, looking at the data, there might be slight bias due to sampling methods… I’m not going to go check right now. Either way, I’m guessing this is probably around where the percentages are, and that the devs are correct.

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

Has this ever happened before in the history of MMO’s an employee giving the drop rate? I’m impressed.

I actually think he did it because it quite a good rate. If it was something like 1 in 250 then it might deter people from trying.

Its like when people tried to build precursors in the mystic forge. So many fools spending obscene amounts of gold trying to get one and quitting the game in fits of rage.

1 in 50 means they intend for it to cost an average of about $56/skin.

You can not tell me that they wouldn’t make a lot more money just selling the skins for $10 to $15 each. There are likely 50 people who would pay $10 for every person who buys chests until they get a skin.

It really seems like it’s a non-ethical system just for the sake of thumbing one’s nose at ethics. Or, so one can have bragging rights when talking with other cash shop managers from other games. This really needs to just end.

I’d sell them for $10-$15 each, plus have them in chests at a 1 in 20 as an added value for BLC key purchasers. The same people who buy chests will continue to buy chests for the normal goodies and for the chance of getting a skin for less than the selling price if they get lucky. The ethical balance of the game is restored and people who want to spend ~$15 a month to support the game have something cool they can purchase.

It’s so simple it’s painful trying to figure out what some people at ANet are thinking.

Fiontar.4695:

1 in 50 means they intend for it to cost an average of about $56/skin.

You can not tell me that they wouldn’t make a lot more money just selling the skins for $10 to $15 each. There are likely 50 people who would pay $10 for every person who buys chests until they get a skin.

It really seems like it’s a non-ethical system just for the sake of thumbing one’s nose at ethics. Or, so one can have bragging rights when talking with other cash shop managers from other games. This really needs to just end.

I’d sell them for $10-$15 each, plus have them in chests at a 1 in 20 as an added value for BLC key purchasers. The same people who buy chests will continue to buy chests for the normal goodies and for the chance of getting a skin for less than the selling price if they get lucky. The ethical balance of the game is restored and people who want to spend ~$15 a month to support the game have something cool they can purchase.

It’s so simple it’s painful trying to figure out what some people at ANet are thinking.

You don’t have to pay any real money to get the skins. You just play in the Super Adventure Box. There are three chests in each run. Or you could save your bauble bubbles and just buy the skin. Why are you talking about $

Fiontar.4695:

1 in 50 means they intend for it to cost an average of about $56/skin.

You can not tell me that they wouldn’t make a lot more money just selling the skins for $10 to $15 each. There are likely 50 people who would pay $10 for every person who buys chests until they get a skin.

It really seems like it’s a non-ethical system just for the sake of thumbing one’s nose at ethics. Or, so one can have bragging rights when talking with other cash shop managers from other games. This really needs to just end.

I’d sell them for $10-$15 each, plus have them in chests at a 1 in 20 as an added value for BLC key purchasers. The same people who buy chests will continue to buy chests for the normal goodies and for the chance of getting a skin for less than the selling price if they get lucky. The ethical balance of the game is restored and people who want to spend ~$15 a month to support the game have something cool they can purchase.

It’s so simple it’s painful trying to figure out what some people at ANet are thinking.

go to the gem store. See all those pretty Halloween skins? Me neither. They won’t be selling these ones. But you’ll be able to get them off other people for insane amount of gold. So get them while you still can get them yourself.

Fiontar.4695:

1 in 50 means they intend for it to cost an average of about $56/skin.

You can not tell me that they wouldn’t make a lot more money just selling the skins for $10 to $15 each. There are likely 50 people who would pay $10 for every person who buys chests until they get a skin.

It really seems like it’s a non-ethical system just for the sake of thumbing one’s nose at ethics. Or, so one can have bragging rights when talking with other cash shop managers from other games. This really needs to just end.

I’d sell them for $10-$15 each, plus have them in chests at a 1 in 20 as an added value for BLC key purchasers. The same people who buy chests will continue to buy chests for the normal goodies and for the chance of getting a skin for less than the selling price if they get lucky. The ethical balance of the game is restored and people who want to spend ~$15 a month to support the game have something cool they can purchase.

It’s so simple it’s painful trying to figure out what some people at ANet are thinking.

I believe you have no idea on what you are talking about. These are ingame chests that you get from killing sab bosses, not black lion chests. And if you want to buy the skins for real money, just buy gold and get them from AH. Last time ive checked, average for 100 gems was 1g67s, which means you can purchase all skins for ~50 bucks.

Back to the subject, today I got 30/0. Not lucky. Lets see tomorrow. Ill probably be opening 30/day (zone 1 & 2 across all my characters). Maybe wont have time (or patience) to open 30 everyday (takes more than 2h), but will keep posting here.

Total for now:

64/1

Edit: 14 of them were already mentiond on topic, so if someone will add this to total, get 50/0 because the 14/1 were already mentioned before

73 chests, 0 skins

When I do finally get one its gonna feel so sweet…….until I realize its a short bow or scepter.

79 chests, 0 skins

I am on 44 chests + 1 full completion.

2x Shield, Scepter, Staff, Broadsword, Sword found so far

Edit: 130 , 0 skins

82 chests, 0 skins

Murth.5637:

Edit: 130 , 0 skins

And here I thought I was nuts for even going to 100 without a drop.

For a group of devs that hate farming so much, they sure make it a necessity. It is easier to mindless grind on mobs for gold and buy what you need then to ever think it will drop. Unless there is a bug in the RNG.

(I’m not just talking about the SAB.)

I just got a staff skin on the zone 2 boss solo. Probably 40-50 chests. If that helps at all

New total:

94/1 (30 new chests, no new luck)

maybe we might had a change of drop rate with last update… or only the unlucky people has been posting lately.

around 50 chests and i’ve gotten 3 skins

94 chests, 0 skins

rtommaso.3120:

maybe we might had a change of drop rate with last update… or only the unlucky people has been posting lately.

It sure looks so. Only skin i got was in begining, now no matter the number of runs nothing drops.

Preacher.9018:

rtommaso.3120:

maybe we might had a change of drop rate with last update… or only the unlucky people has been posting lately.

It sure looks so. Only skin i got was in begining, now no matter the number of runs nothing drops.

yeah it is the same they did with everlasting tonics on christmas… oh wait, this is only a conspiracy theory, it is all my imagination.

60+ runs = 180+ chests aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand: 0 skins.

Now check this out, a friend of mine got the super greatsword skin on his first run. Then later, I spent 3 hours walking my friend through the bauble completionist achievements and then he got the super greatsword skin… his first run. I’m going to keep at it though! Drop rate still 0% in my book.

60 chests and I’ve gotten 5 sword skins, a staff skin and a greatsword skin from the chests. Guess I’ve been getting lucky ;d

OreoWolf.9564:

60 chests and I’ve gotten 5 sword skins, a staff skin and a greatsword skin from the chests. Guess I’ve been getting lucky ;d

you are very lucky or a bad liar.

I’ve gotten 2 skins now(longbow and greatsword) after approx. 62 chests. One from zone 1, and the other from zone 2.

mrzero.2486:

Murth.5637:

Edit: 130 , 0 skins

And here I thought I was nuts for even going to 100 without a drop.

For a group of devs that hate farming so much, they sure make it a necessity. It is easier to mindless grind on mobs for gold and buy what you need then to ever think it will drop. Unless there is a bug in the RNG.

(I’m not just talking about the SAB.)

1 out of 134 now

82 chests, 3 skins

44 Chests 1 Skin. With running the open world chests and my other baubles, I have been able to buy 2 skins with baubles.

I am extremely mad right now. I have opened 75+ chests so far and have gotten but a single drop, NOT ONE! Now, this is a game of chance and I’m just unlucky, no problem there. My skin wil eventually come. Now the problem is my younger brother: he has done the same amount of chests and has gotten, … wait for it … 8 SKINS! Even twice two chests on a single character, an Asura (coincidence?). The current TP price for these skins is ~60 gold and the will only skyrocket in a couple of months. While I feel I am just wasting my time running all my characters each day ;_;

Murth.5637:

mrzero.2486:

Murth.5637:

Edit: 130 , 0 skins

And here I thought I was nuts for even going to 100 without a drop.

For a group of devs that hate farming so much, they sure make it a necessity. It is easier to mindless grind on mobs for gold and buy what you need then to ever think it will drop. Unless there is a bug in the RNG.

(I’m not just talking about the SAB.)

1 out of 134 now

Out of curiosity, how often do you get rares out of chests in the open world? Meaning, dragon and temple events or jumping puzzles.

mrzero.2486:

Murth.5637:

mrzero.2486:

Murth.5637:

Edit: 130 , 0 skins

And here I thought I was nuts for even going to 100 without a drop.

For a group of devs that hate farming so much, they sure make it a necessity. It is easier to mindless grind on mobs for gold and buy what you need then to ever think it will drop. Unless there is a bug in the RNG.

(I’m not just talking about the SAB.)

1 out of 134 now

Out of curiosity, how often do you get rares out of chests in the open world? Meaning, dragon and temple events or jumping puzzles.

Almost non existant, also crafting rares for ectos is avg less than 0.5/rare. on a streak of 1 ecto out 10 rares today :/

60 chests 1 shield skin!

It does get irritating when you open like 200ish chests and only get one skin out of them whilst some one waltzes into the SAB and loots 10 chests and gets like 8 skins.

Azure Prower.8701:

It does get irritating when you open like 200ish chests and only get one skin out of them whilst some one waltzes into the SAB and loots 10 chests and gets like 8 skins.

Almost as annoying as that guy who tries out the Mystic Forge for the very first time, chucks in 4 Rare Greatswords, and gets Dusk.

EDIT: No, that was not me. It was just a hypothetical example.

Bout 50-60 chests one Greatsword one Shield

7 skins in like 50 chests ( 1x great sword 2x shield 4x bows )

I’m up to 100 chests now, still 0 skins. Pretty much everyone else in my guild who has been running the box is up to about 3 skins per 50 chests. What the hell is up with that?

124/2 (30 new chests, 1 new skin)

100 chest, 0 skins