Guild Wars 2

i was all pessimistic before, but just got a 2nd skin drop, doing my 5 chars daily run. So some of us are just really unlucky.

168 chests, 1 skin (longbow)

Coroner.3168:

I am extremely mad right now. I have opened 75+ chests so far and have gotten but a single drop, NOT ONE! Now, this is a game of chance and I’m just unlucky, no problem there. My skin wil eventually come. Now the problem is my younger brother: he has done the same amount of chests and has gotten, … wait for it … 8 SKINS! Even twice two chests on a single character, an Asura (coincidence?). The current TP price for these skins is ~60 gold and the will only skyrocket in a couple of months. While I feel I am just wasting my time running all my characters each day ;_;

You realize you can just buy the skin you want. (with bauble bubbles)

If you are in this for profit instead of fun you are going to be disappointed.

1 rare out of 168 chests now.

Got a longbow and a scepter back to back while running my toons today.
Puts me at 3/70! I’ll keep running for a greats word skin. Figure I’ll quit when I hit 250 BB.

I received 2 skins in less than 10 runs

2 runs. 2 skins. GS and Staff.
I am shock myself

the last 30 chests i got no skin

Josh Foreman.8250:

It’s 1 in 50.

Oh yeah?
77 Chests, 0 skins…

109 chests, 0 skin

Quitting when I get enough bubbles for one more skin :\

Its Called “RNG” so if ur that lucky number u win if not u losse its that simple

The mathematical inescapability of why you will hate the RNG eventually in eight easy steps

1. We do have a 1:50 chance and on average we do get it. Why? Because of the RNG. It works, the chance is 1:50, if you look at all the people in the world and all the chests, the result is most likely 1:49,9999997 or 1:5011112. in other words, 1:50

2. BUT that does not mean each single player gets the 1:50 chance every time. Random means there definitely will be a deviation from the 1:50 chance for everyone of us. 1:50 is the average chance NOT the maximum amount of attempts after which your are guaranteed one drop.

3. Imagine a six sided die. “On Average” the number six comes up once for every six times you roll the die.

4. In reality you have 29.6% chance to roll a six sided die six times without rolling the number six at all.

5. The mathematical formula for this is [(x-1)/(x)]^x
Put in any number and you have the chance to miss it under RNG rules when doing the “average” amount of dice rolls. E.g. a coinflip. Two sides, toss two times, chance to miss heads both times is 25%. [(2-1)/(2)]^2

6. Nice thing about the complicated formula: it also works for large numbers in Excel. There you will find that the chance to miss your “average” chance trends towards 36%. Which means that if three people open 50 chests, all three will have opened the average amount of chests, but only two will get skins. On average that is.

7. The chance for Chrisplotion to reach 109 chests 0 skins was roughly 13.2% Lucky him. That is not unreasonably unlucky in terms of thing that can happen, but 109 chests is definitely enough chests to come to the forum and be angry.

8. Sooner or later everybody will have run into the RNG often enough to have missed a chance and gotten a chance to hate it. And this is what we see over and over with every new chest and event.

And this is why you will hate the RNG eventually. Is this necessary? Not at all. There are far superior mathematical constructs and implementation of random loot distribution which do not bum out players as fast. The game could easily compare the average intended amount 1:50 and compare it to the amount of times a single player actually opened the chest. If the counter hits 75, the game auto-corrects by handing out a slice of guaranteed luck. If you are clever about it, a player will never be able to abuse this for his advantage and still the game will hand out enough skins so players never get angry on the forums.

Database-Charged RNGs, the future of using loot to reward players without risk of shortstacking 36% of your audience and totally screwing 10%.

144 chests
2 super sword skins and 1 super shield skin

Poor Josh will get fired for revealing the exact drop rate of something

FourthVariety.5463:

The mathematical inescapability of why you will hate the RNG eventually in eight easy steps

1. We do have a 1:50 chance and on average we do get it. Why? Because of the RNG. It works, the chance is 1:50, if you look at all the people in the world and all the chests, the result is most likely 1:49,9999997 or 1:5011112. in other words, 1:50

2. BUT that does not mean each single player gets the 1:50 chance every time. Random means there definitely will be a deviation from the 1:50 chance for everyone of us. 1:50 is the average chance NOT the maximum amount of attempts after which your are guaranteed one drop.

3. Imagine a six sided die. “On Average” the number six comes up once for every six times you roll the die.

4. In reality you have 29.6% chance to roll a six sided die six times without rolling the number six at all.

5. The mathematical formula for this is [(x-1)/(x)]^x
Put in any number and you have the chance to miss it under RNG rules when doing the “average” amount of dice rolls. E.g. a coinflip. Two sides, toss two times, chance to miss heads both times is 25%. [(2-1)/(2)]^2

6. Nice thing about the complicated formula: it also works for large numbers in Excel. There you will find that the chance to miss your “average” chance trends towards 36%. Which means that if three people open 50 chests, all three will have opened the average amount of chests, but only two will get skins. On average that is.

7. The chance for Chrisplotion to reach 109 chests 0 skins was roughly 13.2% Lucky him. That is not unreasonably unlucky in terms of thing that can happen, but 109 chests is definitely enough chests to come to the forum and be angry.

8. Sooner or later everybody will have run into the RNG often enough to have missed a chance and gotten a chance to hate it. And this is what we see over and over with every new chest and event.

And this is why you will hate the RNG eventually. Is this necessary? Not at all. There are far superior mathematical constructs and implementation of random loot distribution which do not bum out players as fast. The game could easily compare the average intended amount 1:50 and compare it to the amount of times a single player actually opened the chest. If the counter hits 75, the game auto-corrects by handing out a slice of guaranteed luck. If you are clever about it, a player will never be able to abuse this for his advantage and still the game will hand out enough skins so players never get angry on the forums.

Database-Charged RNGs, the future of using loot to reward players without risk of shortstacking 36% of your audience and totally screwing 10%.

so in your system nobody would get super lucky too. I’m sorry, but I like having the chance to get a skin when I open 5 chests. It’s sort of reality. Nobody can have guaranteed luck. RNG in this game is better than in other MMOs and in my opinion it should be kept the way it is.

Mirta.5029:

so in your system nobody would get super lucky too. I’m sorry, but I like having the chance to get a skin when I open 5 chests. It’s sort of reality. Nobody can have guaranteed luck. RNG in this game is better than in other MMOs and in my opinion it should be kept the way it is.

You could still get superlucky. The way I described it, only super"unluckyness" is eliminated. But if the operator of such a system desired, he would have the option to eliminate superlucky dice rolls as well. An advanced RNG gives you more options at all times, it does not have to limit anybody’s chances of getting 5 drops from 5 chests. It can be specifically targeted only at players getting nothing from 100 chests.

125 chests, 5 skins

now as stated its 1/50 chests per toon. so say you have 5 running. 50 chests is roughly 7.5 runs per toon. so that’s 37.5 runs x 6 chests is 225 total chest before you might see 1.

Draygo.9473:

Coroner.3168:

I am extremely mad right now. I have opened 75+ chests so far and have gotten but a single drop, NOT ONE! Now, this is a game of chance and I’m just unlucky, no problem there. My skin wil eventually come. Now the problem is my younger brother: he has done the same amount of chests and has gotten, … wait for it … 8 SKINS! Even twice two chests on a single character, an Asura (coincidence?). The current TP price for these skins is ~60 gold and the will only skyrocket in a couple of months. While I feel I am just wasting my time running all my characters each day ;_;

You realize you can just buy the skin you want. (with bauble bubbles)

If you are in this for profit instead of fun you are going to be disappointed.

I am as a matter of fact in it for the profit, while getting enough Bauble Bubbles for the skins I want.

EDIT: I have gotten 2 skins with the last two characters I’ve ran this day with. Which makes my total 2 skins out of ~100 chests. About the average, which would in turn confirm the droprate (1 in 50). My brother still has 8 skins, with less runs this time.

P.S.: I do think it is worth doing every day since a Greatsword and a Shortbow skin (the two skins I got) make for a total of 45 gold (at the time of writing) while still getting the Bauble Bubbles. I’m just hoping the skins will be worth more after a couple of months.

LOOOOOL

I got super lucky today,I got Super Shortbow skin in World 1 stage 1,then Super Staff skin in World 1 stage 2 in the same run!!! :o

1-50 yeah right im now on over 400 runs ive grinded enought bauble bubbles for all the skins ive got another 103 bauble bubbles in my bank and i havent had one drop there is no way in hell anyone is that unlucky. I smell bs a mile away and this is starting to stink really bad

Osculim.2983:

1-50 yeah right im now on over 400 runs ive grinded enought bauble bubbles for all the skins ive got another 103 bauble bubbles in my bank and i havent had one drop there is no way in hell anyone is that unlucky. I smell bs a mile away and this is starting to stink really bad

You had a 0.03% chance of that happening to you.
1 in 3232 SAB farmer share your fate.

Look on the bright side, with that kind of luck, you probably never get hit by lightning.

Glaxthor.1358:

Dingle.2743:

(6+6+7) * 3 = 57 chests.

No skins.

A guildmember I did most of the runs with has opened 45 chests, and gotten 4 skins.

Some people just have all the luck…

Some people lie all the time.

2 out of 184 Chests.

1st at Chest 88 (Short bow)
2nd at Chest 182 (Scepter)
3rd at Chest ???

Closer to 1% chance for me so far.

ZilentNight.5089:

Glaxthor.1358:

Dingle.2743:

(6+6+7) * 3 = 57 chests.

No skins.

A guildmember I did most of the runs with has opened 45 chests, and gotten 4 skins.

Some people just have all the luck…

Some people lie all the time.

it’s not that unlikely though. I have 4 skins so far. Though I lost count of how many runs I’ve done, because for a few days now I’ve been consistently doing 8 runs a day.

228 chests

1 Super Sceptre
3 Super Greatsword
2 Super Longbow

6 skins total from 228 chests.

FourthVariety.5463:

7. The chance for Chrisplotion to reach 109 chests 0 skins was roughly 13.2% Lucky him. That is not unreasonably unlucky in terms of thing that can happen, but 109 chests is definitely enough chests to come to the forum and be angry.

I’m quite aware of how random number generators work. If I come across angry that is not my intent, I am more disappointed than anything which is understandable. I am not doing this for profit but more acquiring the skins I need. Once I get enough Bauble Bubbles for my next skin, I will have gotten all the ones I need for my characters. So I will have no need to continue doing the dungeon unless I was doing it for a skin that is tradable which I am not. I was just hoping to get that lucky drop while doing the dungeon that I think anyone doing it would want to get at least once. I am not using the forum as a means to complain or be angry, more of a means to talk out my frustration with my fellow luckless members.

So I fell through part of the tree on my 111th chest, just waiting there for me to open it and nothing I can do about it

Chrisplosion.3756:

FourthVariety.5463:

7. The chance for Chrisplotion to reach 109 chests 0 skins was roughly 13.2% Lucky him. That is not unreasonably unlucky in terms of thing that can happen, but 109 chests is definitely enough chests to come to the forum and be angry.

I’m quite aware of how random number generators work. If I come across angry that is not my intent, I am more disappointed than anything which is understandable. I am not doing this for profit but more acquiring the skins I need. Once I get enough Bauble Bubbles for my next skin, I will have gotten all the ones I need for my characters. So I will have no need to continue doing the dungeon unless I was doing it for a skin that is tradable which I am not. I was just hoping to get that lucky drop while doing the dungeon that I think anyone doing it would want to get at least once. I am not using the forum as a means to complain or be angry, more of a means to talk out my frustration with my fellow luckless members.

I’m with you 100%. It’s not just SAB that I personally have a problem with. I have just refrained from posting about other frustrations because this is the wrong place. Personally, I take issue with the RNG in general. Here is why.

I have an engi that has 40% crit rate. yet nearly every single hit with his FT is a crit. Same character decked out in MF gear including upgrades, squeezing every ounce of MF I can gets maybe one or two rares during 5-6 hours of farming. Don’t even get me started on event chests. I think I have seen 2 rares out of those ever. Exotic drops? 4 in all the time I have been playing. (over 1600 hours).

The reason it is the problem is that it has been said that farming is not something that they want as part of the game. Problem with that is, it is the only way you can possibly get the gear you need. You have to farm junk you and most other people don’t need so you can make the money for stuff you do need. This is just me expressing where my frustration comes from. What some folks don’t understand is, how is anyone ever going to know if there is a bug in an RNG if the explanation is always “bad luck”. On the other hand, how can anyone prove that such a bug exists? There is no way any of us could ever prove that an RNG is or isn’t bugged.

In my opinion, RNGs are an antiquated system. But really, what are devs going to do for drops? They can’t just give things away. The only other option is to have items on vendors only and have mobs, chests, etc just drop money. Where’s the fun in that?

Tl;dr? This post makes an argument that the ongoing development of GW2 is already removing most of the influence of the RNG.

What loot amounts to is a digital pad on the back. The problem being how it is used. As mrzero mentioned, each player will drown in loot he does not want and will have to use the trading post to convert it to gold. Gold which can then be used to buy what you wanted in the first place. This causes a few problems. First of all, loot events happen so often that the actual even of finding loot has lost any value. Up to the point where not finding loot at a boss is called “a bug”. Secondly, it enforces a type of penny pinching when converting the stacks of loot into gold which is not all that entertaining. It also creates an economy build on excess loot, which is a dangerous beast compared to a real economy. Most annoyingly, the flash-flood of loot gave rise to microtransactions, such as instant traders and additional loot bag. Since this exists, I suppose we will not see GW2 evolve away from its current loot systems of overflowing bags.

As a result of flashflood loot, tiny chances to find something useful and tradingpost conversion, most of the items we use are bought from the trading post. Compared to a Diablo 3, the rate of items you can attain by playing the game is still staggeringly high. If it weren’t for Dungeon-Tokens and alike, we would end up in the D3 situation of 90% of all players wearing stuff they bought, not stuff they found/crafted.

The Super Adventure Box already does loot rather smart. It tells you “bring me 50 Tokens”, so you can head out to get them. Arguably the means to attain them efficiently are such that not all players might agree, but in theory it works. You have your tokens, the skins are for personal use, I love the fact that I played the game and have gotten a staff without excessive loot management games on the TP.

The RNG and the gold skins are a different beast. They do not tie into “I want skin X for my character”. They tie into “I want to efficiently farm something I can sell, so I can then buy something I really want”. E.g. “I want a precursor, hence I grind CoF for 300h.” and then arrive at the conclusion “But wait, what if I grind SAB for 100h. I get the same value off the skins in far less time!”

GW2 is not all about RNG though. What we see happening in the game is more token currencies popping up everywhere; undermining RNGs. One token for each patch, wait, make that two. Fractal Tokens, Fractal Tokens II, Commendations, Baubbles, Laurels, Guild Tokens, the list will certainly go on. More and more things we want can be earned by those tokens, the RNG becomes less of an issue, since token are far more reliable drops. BEFORE you start a task you will know EXACTLY how many tokens it will yield, which makes all the difference. Diminishing returns violated that concept by leaving players in the dark when exactly they were allowed to get full rewards again. Sufficient to say that friends of colorful language got their share of entertainment in that discussion.

New skins, either lean heavily towards tokens (Guild Skins) or offer both token & RNG (super skin). The ascended items were completely removed from the gold economy. The Precursors are the last high level goal remaining in the grip of the gold economy and the RNG. I certainly will not shed a tear once I can remove myself entirely from the gold economy. Question being what will happen if many more high end players will do the same? Then we might end up at a point where players demand a better RNG to fuel the gold economy again. Cue Elton John playing Circle of Life.

I feel like I’m living an April Fool’s Day over and over and over…

134 chests, 0 skins

152/3 (28 new chests, 1 new skin)

I wont be farming the chests as I was before because of 1) its boring to do the same thing 15 times/day; 2) drop rate is not worth the money; 3) I have enough baubles to buy all the stuff I want;

Ill keep farming, but not everyday and probably not 30 chests/day since I will not travel my chars that eventually are not in Rata Sum since the travel costs are abusive for lvl 80s (thats why I farmed 28 instead of 30 today).

Out of curiosity, has anyone gotten a skin from the Zone 3 frog chest?

I’ve… lost count of the amount of runs I’ve done (for once my altitis is sorta paying off). But I’ve gotten one skin from the Zone 1 Chest, and two from Zone 2.

Edit: I ran Zone 3 as I’d forgotten to on my last character just now. Got a Super Shield from the Zone 3 chest, so yes, it’s possible from all three apparently!

First chest I opened gave me the Super Scepter just found out there’s only four levels, sad face.

is it possible to get the skin when finishing L2 Z1 as a reward?

150 chests, 3skins
1 gs
1 shield
1 staff

Less than 30 chest from using the same 3 characters.

These are only from chest drops.
1 staff
1 sword
1 greatsword
1 longbow
about 150 unused Bauble Bubbles

I always start from zone 1 and play the game normally. No deleting characters. I kill everything in my way. And I try to get my 500 bubbles.

But I seem to be lucky with chest in this game. I had the Final Rest drop after about 7 tries after learning it drops from the SB.

During these days I collected 350 bauble bubbles = 7 skins. And I got 3 more from chests.

174 chests, 1 shield skin

1:50 my kitten …

Just to post my notes, I’ve done probably around 80 chests (Did more before ‘speed running’ and actually keeping track, didn’t get a skin til these 80 though). 2 shield, 2 greatsword skins.

Haha I have been doing SAB for about 3 days. Today I did my first run (EDIT: Today) and the last chest dropped me 2 SKINS xDDD

I thought it was just one cuz I rapidly pressed F to get it, then when I went to the BL to see how much it was selling for I saw that I also had the GS one too hahaha!

182/4 (30 new chests, 1 new skin)

If someone wants more dataills: 1 shortbow, 2 shields, 1 staff (droped in this order).

210 chests, 2 skins (long bow, short bow)

basonista.4815:

I feel like I’m living an April Fool’s Day over and over and over…

134 chests, 0 skins

You are not alone, 131 chest and 0 skins u.u

edit: 145 and no skin ._.

BakaPhoenix.2087:

basonista.4815:

I feel like I’m living an April Fool’s Day over and over and over…

134 chests, 0 skins

You are not alone, 131 chest and 0 skins u.u

edit: 145 and no skin ._.

Time to start a support group. At least I got a staff drop so I’m at 173 chests and 1 skin.

Josh has already stated odds are 1 in 50 way back on page 1. Why is this thread still going?

Icealen.3802:

Josh has already stated odds are 1 in 50 way back on page 1. Why is this thread still going?

because we like this thread.

I’m at about chest 250.

I looted a scepter 8 hours before reset. Then after reset, I looted a sword on my first run. On my third run, I looted a sword and a greatsword. I am now rich. Thank you SAB.

On that note. I’ve never looted any skin from the chest in the 3rd zone. Never. Has any one else?

Azure Prower.8701:

I’m at about chest 250.

I looted a scepter 8 hours before reset. Then after reset, I looted a sword on my first run. On my third run, I looted a sword and a greatsword. I am now rich. Thank you SAB.

On that note. I’ve never looted any skin from the chest in the 3rd zone. Never. Has any one else?

I had the same question a few posts up. The very next day I looted a greatsword from it.

210/6 (28 new chests, 2 new skin – staff + staff) – opening more now after the reset

1 shortbow
2 shields
3 staves