Guild Wars 2

Late For Tea.1846:

Sahfur.5612:

snip
THEY DID STEALTH NERF IT. It is an exercise in naivety to believe otherwise. I apologize but those are the statistics.
snip

Funny how you talk about statistics, but you base your conclusion of maybe 3-4 cases? Before the patch I got my princess on my 2nd, my Griffon on the 6th and Soldier on the 1st. After the patch I got my Ventari on the 7th, sounds reasonable compared to how others had to try over 20 times before the patch, don’t you think?
It doesn’t seem to be that bad, considering others can get it fairly easily as well.

Stop spreading your poorly drawn conclusions.

maybe you should stop lecturing people about stuff you don’t seem to fully grasp..

lets say a 1:3 chance for getting an endless tonic. if you do it three times, chances are, you got it. the chance of not getting it in one run is 2:3, thus STILL not having it after three runs, is about 2^3 / 3^3. this means of 100 people doing three runs, on average only 29 will not have gotten the tonic by now (compared to the 33 which got it on the first run). with 4 runs the number decreases to 19, then 13, 8, 5 and 0.5 on the 13th run. this is simple statistics, and of course there can be deviations in small sample sizes.
thus, if it took me 13 tries for the endless toy soldier, I just might be the only unlucky person out of 200 who did get it. that’s absolutely a possibility. chances are slim, but I don’t discard them. as there was a chance of someone taking 20 tries before the patch (I actually didn’t see the post stating this, but I could’ve read past it)

on the other hand, if the people deciding on the odds are known for tweaking these numbers, it’s much more probable they just changed something, than that only the people with bad luck are posting on the board after the patch and before only the people with good luck.

if ANet would state they didn’t touch the drop chance at all (and we believed them), then this thread would be a prime example of randomness seeming unrandom for the human brain (because we don’t think streaks of good/bad luck are random, even though they are in a large enough sample). I just think it’s really doubtful they didn’t change the numbers, like they did lots of times before (drop chances of ancient bones in the labyrinth, exotic drop chances in the mad kings dungeon, etc)..

In my small sample of two people, it seems to be just as easy to get them. Took me three tries for griffin last night and my sister got it on the first try this morning.

Luck can be streaky, so I’d guess that the RNG is to blame rather than the numbers being tweaked.

princess: first try
soldier: 15 and counting
griffon: 10 and counting

I can only do like 10-15 failures a night before getting discouraged.

OmegaProject.9831:

20 tries and absolutely nothing. I dare someone to top that RNG bad luck.

EDIT: It appears I’m not alone. Perhaps those who got the item under 10 tries were just incredibly lucky. Hope things work out for everyone else!

I got my princess doll tonic on the 25th attempt. I got my toy soldier on the 5th.

It gets expensive when the forge fails you…

I’m kind of miffed, I was under the impression that combining 4 endless tonics gave you the toymaker’s tonic, too bad that isn’t freaking true. I combined my 4 tonics and got the one I didnt have. You can’t fathom how mad I am right now both at myself and at the sheer fact that people outright lie on these forums and others.

Ugh, filed a complaint ingame hope they can give me a refund :/ I want my toy soldier tonic back…

Oranisagu.3706:

maybe you should stop lecturing people about stuff you don’t seem to fully grasp..

lets say a 1:3 chance for getting an endless tonic.

The idea of a 1/3 drop chance is made up by the community. There’s no actual statement from the Devs regarding the official drop chance, thus the drop chance may as well be 1/10 (which seems more likely from all these posts). In that case it’s much more common to have to try 20, 30 or even 40 times.

On top of that, this sample isn’t random. People with poor results are more likely to complain on the forums about it than people with a good result posting about their success.

DonYawnful.1062:

I’m kind of miffed, I was under the impression that combining 4 endless tonics gave you the toymaker’s tonic, too bad that isn’t freaking true. I combined my 4 tonics and got the one I didnt have. You can’t fathom how mad I am right now both at myself and at the sheer fact that people outright lie on these forums and others.

Ugh, filed a complaint ingame hope they can give me a refund :/ I want my toy soldier tonic back…

I did the same, there isn’t really anything we can do, we have to suck it up.

DonYawnful.1062:

I’m kind of miffed, I was under the impression that combining 4 endless tonics gave you the toymaker’s tonic, too bad that isn’t freaking true. I combined my 4 tonics and got the one I didnt have. You can’t fathom how mad I am right now both at myself and at the sheer fact that people outright lie on these forums and others.

Ugh, filed a complaint ingame hope they can give me a refund :/ I want my toy soldier tonic back…

The whole thread is full with people complaining that they got a Golem tonic instead of Toymaker’s. The OP even posted warning regarding this in the first post. How can you say the people here are lying?

There was a PSA post on gw2 reddit since yesterday about the fact that combining 4 endless tonics does not give the endless toymaker. Moral of the story, if you are not willing to lose what is at risk, do your research first and let someone else find out for you.

And as far as endless tonics, I got the griffin and the golem minis so:

Ventari tonic: 2 tries
Princess tonic: 9 tries
Toy Soldier tonic: 3 tries

Got my Endless Griffon tonic on the 6th try.

I really want to get the endless tonics (though it sounds like it’s best not to gamble for the toymaker one), but I’ve never really used tonics before. Are endless really endless? What I mean is, can I reuse them over and over, or is it a one time use (albeit a very long one time use).

Late For Tea.1846:

Oranisagu.3706:

maybe you should stop lecturing people about stuff you don’t seem to fully grasp..

lets say a 1:3 chance for getting an endless tonic.

The idea of a 1/3 drop chance is made up by the community. There’s no actual statement from the Devs regarding the official drop chance, thus the drop chance may as well be 1/10 (which seems more likely from all these posts). In that case it’s much more common to have to try 20, 30 or even 40 times.

On top of that, this sample isn’t random. People with poor results are more likely to complain on the forums about it than people with a good result posting about their success.

which just shows you didn’t even read anything I wrote – the 1:3 ratio at first was an example to illustrate how probability works – for people (maybe like you) who don’t really get it and started making absurd claims..

if you’re theory is correct, then those the people posting where the people with bad luck, so the real ratio must’ve been even higher? because right now probability isn’t in favour of 1:3 at all.
anyways, I would’ve posted no matter how many tries it took me. I don’t just complain on these forums, when a thread is all about collecting data from players, I will chip in, no matter how good or bad my results are.

my current status (stupidly only counted the amount of single use tonics/3 without the one run that really produced the endless):
toy soldier tonic: 14 tries
princess tonic: 8 tries
golem: 16 tries
if the ratio still is as high as it was pre-patch, I’m one hell of a deviation =)

Just wanted to confirm that you do get the Endless Toymaker Tonic by combining 4 tonics in the mystic forge. I combined all of the endless tonics except the griffin one to get it

Took about 10 tries for my griffin

MZhou.9104:

Just wanted to confirm that you do get the Endless Toymaker Tonic by combining 4 tonics in the mystic forge. I combined all of the endless tonics except the griffin one to get it

It is RANDOM which one you get: you have the same chance (I believe) to get dolyak, toymaker or the 5th tonic.

Late For Tea.1846:

Sahfur.5612:

snip
THEY DID STEALTH NERF IT. It is an exercise in naivety to believe otherwise. I apologize but those are the statistics.
snip

Funny how you talk about statistics, but you base your conclusion of maybe 3-4 cases? Before the patch I got my princess on my 2nd, my Griffon on the 6th and Soldier on the 1st. After the patch I got my Ventari on the 7th, sounds reasonable compared to how others had to try over 20 times before the patch, don’t you think?
It doesn’t seem to be that bad, considering others can get it fairly easily as well.

Stop spreading your poorly drawn conclusions.

Except you didn’t prove otherwise nor did you have access to the statistics which I had access to. Before you make shallow assumptions let me shatter your attempt to sweep the facts under the rug. I have asked alot of people about the drop rates decreasing, I have read numerous forum posts, I have checked and checked and double checked.

However, one persons statistics (yours) is totally able to counter a logical and sound statistical conclusion based on facts we have. Also, it takes just one special bee to make a swarm. Except it doesn’t. You aren’t a special bee and you are the same as all the other bees in the swarm. Shall I mention that mainly people who post in other places and are neither censored nor fanning it up on the official forums (lets face it alot of us left to other forums), have had similar results?

You are an outlier. You are not the norm, you are a statistical irregularity. You are one person and your single case does not counter the dozens of other cases where the drop rate decreased afterward.

Its simple.. simple… simpleton math. Hows that for poorly drawn conclusions?

Edit:
To be clear, if I was merely complaining that the drop rates were low, it would be a case of random dissatisfaction. However, I am stating that after asking numerous.. dozens of people and reading around on less censored forums (and these of course), the drop rate was reduced after the patch greatly. Its science. Check it out.

I post to bring this kind of thing to the surface not because of dissatisfaction… not because of spite, not because of being rude.. I merely think you have the right to know the odds as a fellow casino goer. If I was a company and I put out a patch lowering chances (thus having the initial reaction that things are good and discounting latter tests as unlucky) it would be a very good business decision to increase attempts made, while decreasing success. This could lead to more gold purchases or what have you.. I sure wouldn’t mention the stealth nerf if people asked about it if I was that company.

Call me a pessimist.

Oh, and I -would- be overjoyed if ANet stated that drop rates were not decreased and gave us our actual chances. It hasn’t happened yet though. I want people to know their chances.

I got “fairly” lucky with the tonics, getting 2 of them first try, and one on the second… but I also traded 4 endless (Golem, Doll, Ventari, Griffon), thinking you would get something special… and to my horror I got Toy soldier… (I had not seen any topic warning of the disaster either, so it was a pretty bad surprise)

I understand the forge is a gamble, but you even got the frame back if you failed getting the endless tonic… there was NO indication of the harsh price you could pay if you gambled all 4, especially since this time you do not get anything back, and you can’t even try to recover the tonics since you don’t have the frames anymore…

So I feel the issue here is what many people say, it’s the fact that we lose the frames, which atm can only be obtained once, and especially, that after getting the frames back if trying for endless tonics, the least you would expect is to lose all tonics just to get the 5th when combining them, the results just go from allowing you to retry if you don’t succeed, to a single do or die gamble, without any warning of the possibility of busting so hard.

That just leaves a very sour taste on a otherwise merry holiday… one that doesn’t fit in at all. So I hope this changes in the future, or at least visible so people don’t get nastily surprised…

I tried to get the tonic for both a Griff and Golem and it took my frame for both…both times it was unsuccessful. No tonics and no frames!

11 tries and no endless tonic. Wasted a few gold at this point. Tempted to call it done with. These are cute items but nothing to break the bank for. You won’t even want to use next year because the seasonal feeling will be out of date.

Mass Of Attack.6580:

I tried to get the tonic for both a Griff and Golem and it took my frame for both…both times it was unsuccessful. No tonics and no frames!

It should give you back a small present with the frame and some temporary tonics inside. Did you get a present?

1/3 huh? so either i have incredibly bad luck or that statistic is wrong. 6 tries to get princess, 14 for ventari, 6 so far for griffin. That was all my holiday stuffing and glue and around 9 gold…

Look, Areanet, please take out this “chance to get” the endless where the mini is a given. It’s arbitrary, stupid, and just a waste of time and gold that leaves unlucky players (like myself) with nothing at the end of your suppose to be happy holiday. I understand luck in some aspects but since we are dealing with something that seems to be built as an alternate reward for participating this chance thing just leaves your players with less gold and possibly nothing at all!

I’m sorry to come across as whiny, but honestly I am feeling a bit robbed. Where people around me get it in try 1-3 I am on try 6 (after 14 to get my last one) and still have nothing! I spend 9 gold and get nothing where others have to give nothing but what was given to them via the holiday events.

So please Areanet change this. I would love to get my gold back but just knowing that the next time I try this I will actually get something in memory of this event other than a frame that never amounted to anything would be enough for me.

12 tries with the princess frame and no joy. :\ Alas…

got my princess in a first try

my char looks adorbs transformed with my mini griffon running after her

Sahfur.5612:

-snip-

And yet you didn’t show any of your data to back up your claims. Without showing your data your theory means nothing. Obviously people are going to question you if you claim things without showing significant proof. If you just believe what anyone says, you don’t get anywhere.

This definitely is a bad case of RNG. To everyone complaining about stealth nerfs, I just got the ventari and princess on my first try, and the golem on my second try. There’s definitely just a series of people getting either lucky or unlucky, and getting likely jilted by the Gambler’s Fallacy. I’m sure I don’t need to explain it here, but after 50 failed attempts at a tonic, the 51st has the exact same chance of getting you the tonic as any other attempt. There are no nerfs involved here, just terrible, wretched luck. If we really want to prove the stats on this, someone make a google docs spreadsheet and we’ll chart this out properly. I’ll even run the stats myself, I’ve got professional statistics experience and software.

Just thought I’d throw my experience into the mix. I got fairly lucky for the endless tonics of the first two days pets – I got the tonics within a few tries each. The third days toy endless tonic came within five goes at the forge. The fourth came within 15-20 tries and the fifth within 10-15.

I’m not sure whether this skew in results came from pure RNG, the fact that the chances decrease for the “rarity” of the toy (i.e. endless tonics from day 1 are easier to get than day 5), or whether diminishing returns come into play. I guess it is possible that they’ve made it so the more endless tonics you successfully craft, the less chance you have of crafting the others. The cynic in me says that this is the case though this is only from personal experience.

I’m now debating whether to throw 4 of my endless tonics into the forge in order to try for the toymakers, but judging from a lot of posts on here the risk isn’t worth it. Does anyone else have any feedback on their experiences of combining the endless tonics? It would be great to hear developer feedback on whether receiving the “fifth” toys endless tonic is intended. It would be awful to have crafted all of these only to receive an endless tonic I already have…

I’m up to 135 tonics trying to get my endless golem tonic. That’s 45 tries so far.

Unbelievable.

my princess frame and griffon disappeared after trying to forge them…

anyone facing this issue?

If you did not succeed in getting the tonic, they are in the wintersday gift you got back.

Some characters or some accounts are just … blessed by a chance goddess in this game … AND this is definitly NOT my case !
So all these possibilities accounting on chance just … frightned me. Like buying 10 winterdays gifts and receiving nothing interesting when friends in my guild obtained 2 mini-pets or contracts permitting to chance their hair-style …
It could be very kind from Anet to allow the infinite tonic not to be linked to account when crafted !
It could allow lots of us to have these tonics, not accounting on chance.
And, for those who already used the components to craft dolls and toys (I remember crafting toys is the only possibility mentionned in the description of the skin), the only possiblity to have one.
Warm winterdays everybody !

Got an Endless Golem Tonic after 9 tries, and daaaaaayyuuum it’s cute. I’m just floating around LA right now asking “Bzzzzt. What is love?”

16 tries on golem tonic until I got it.

23 tries till I got an Endless Princess Doll tonic = 10g
Chasing people in LA with a faceless, soul eating doll = Priceless

Why, creator, why?!? Does it please you to watch me struggle?

Gliss.9713:

Why, creator, why?!? Does it please you to watch me struggle?

Take a break and try tomorrow if your gonna keep trying. For all you know dr is hitting you hard right now.

Saw the golem, knew I wanted the tonic – got it on my 2nd try, then bought the golem pet on the store. →happy asura

My results:

2 tries for the Endless Toysoldier’s Tonic success!

8 tries for the Endless Princess Tonic success!

1 try for Endless Ventari Tonic success!

2 tries for Endless Golem Tonic success!

ALL WAS PUT INTO THE MF AGAIN:
and I ended up with the Endless Griffin Tonic

TIP: Make the mini of the endless tonic type you’d like. Because when it comes to making the endless toymaker’s tonic. Even if you fail, you’ll end up with an endless that you like in my case I made the Griffin mini and ended up with the Endless Griffin Tonic

EDITED: To update details

Sajuuk.5706:

This definitely is a bad case of RNG. To everyone complaining about stealth nerfs, I just got the ventari and princess on my first try, and the golem on my second try. There’s definitely just a series of people getting either lucky or unlucky, and getting likely jilted by the Gambler’s Fallacy. I’m sure I don’t need to explain it here, but after 50 failed attempts at a tonic, the 51st has the exact same chance of getting you the tonic as any other attempt. There are no nerfs involved here, just terrible, wretched luck. If we really want to prove the stats on this, someone make a google docs spreadsheet and we’ll chart this out properly. I’ll even run the stats myself, I’ve got professional statistics experience and software.

and another one doesn’t understand statistics.. YES, every single run viewed seperately in itself has the same chance as the run before or the run after. BUT the chance of having a number of runs within a certain path (say 50 fails and 1 correct) are extremely slim. in fact, it’s a lot less probable than having 20 fails and 1 correct, if the chance is below 1:20 – and the numbers do suggest its below that ratio (only very few unlucky people got more than 15 fail runs).
I know statistics and probability isn’t that simple, but still.. please try to at least think about it before you post, it’s not magic, just math..

Mephane.8496:

Saw the golem, knew I wanted the tonic – got it on my 2nd try, then bought the golem pet on the store. ->happy asura

My character isn’t an Asura but the Golem mini fits in well with him being in the Priory.

Oranisagu.3706:

Sajuuk.5706:

This definitely is a bad case of RNG. To everyone complaining about stealth nerfs, I just got the ventari and princess on my first try, and the golem on my second try. There’s definitely just a series of people getting either lucky or unlucky, and getting likely jilted by the Gambler’s Fallacy. I’m sure I don’t need to explain it here, but after 50 failed attempts at a tonic, the 51st has the exact same chance of getting you the tonic as any other attempt. There are no nerfs involved here, just terrible, wretched luck. If we really want to prove the stats on this, someone make a google docs spreadsheet and we’ll chart this out properly. I’ll even run the stats myself, I’ve got professional statistics experience and software.

and another one doesn’t understand statistics.. YES, every single run viewed seperately in itself has the same chance as the run before or the run after. BUT the chance of having a number of runs within a certain path (say 50 fails and 1 correct) are extremely slim. in fact, it’s a lot less probable than having 20 fails and 1 correct, if the chance is below 1:20 – and the numbers do suggest its below that ratio (only very few unlucky people got more than 15 fail runs).
I know statistics and probability isn’t that simple, but still.. please try to at least think about it before you post, it’s not magic, just math..

The case is, however, we don’t know what the odds to get the endless are. We’re looking at a massive game population. Once you spread out the low possibility of getting nothing 20 times in a row over the game population, the likelihood of it occurring increases. Add on to the fact that you’re more likely to get people who have this poor luck posting on the forums to complain about it, and it shows that there’s really nothing remarkable going on here, other than a unsurprising and likely skewed section of the game population posting on the forums about the bad luck which is bound to occur when dealing with populations on this size. Think about it this way. Let’s say the odds of getting a toy are 1 in 10 (I have no clue what they actually are). The chance of getting nothing after 20 attempts is ~12%. For the people getting nothing after 30 attempts, it’s ~4%. If we’re generous and say that you have a 1/4 chance of getting the endless tonic, the odds of getting nothing after 20 tries are .3%, which, spread over a population of thousands upon thousands of players, is bound to happen.

Update: 38 tries for endless tonic. RNG can go die in a fire.

I did 12 tries, including about 2 gold for more Glue, and didn’t get a single endless tonic. Oh well.

judging from these posts, i guess i got lucky

ventari = 2nd try
char = 6th try
(got char and ventari last night at around 11pm or so gmt)
doll = 1st try
golem = 2nd try
(got doll and golem around 20 minutes ago)

another mix of 4endless giving back the fifth reporting ^^

same here
put in those 4 tonics (ventari, golem, doll, char) and got back the tonic (griffon) i didn’t use

To all the people who struggle with this don’t give up it can take a while. For me my luck went up and down. Princess potion 7 tries, verani 2 tries, griphon 11 tries.

I’m at 156 tonics. Try to beat that bad luck. I agree, RNG can go burn in the pits of hell.

Is the best time to fight RNG the second you log on after waiting for a Daily Reset?

I tied this 10 times, no endless tonic. High change my kitten

I was moderately lucky, 10 tries and 1 endless tonic (Princess), though I tried all 4 (except Griffin) as I made the mini for that. Now I just need to get the other three and hope they either (a) fix the bug with creating the toymaker tonic, or (b) come out and at least tell us that it is supposed to only be a chance (though I am hoping it is a bug personally).