Guild Wars 2

AlietteFaye.7316:

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

So why don’t you guys just release the “accurate” statistics, then? Stop people from having to guess and make these kinds of threads in the first place.

Probably because actually knowing the rates of return would make most reasonable people not even attempt getting one.

If you knew the rate was 1/100 (for example), would you take your chances at getting a Fused weapon? Or would you decide that buying 100 keys for just a 63% chance of getting one would be ridiculous?

It’s the same reason casino’s don’t readily publish your odds of winning. (Although, strangely enough, I think laws regulating contests require them to post your odds. See: Pretty much every contest ever. McDonald’s monopoly states this. Every online contest I’ve ever seen says “Odds are determined by number of contestants that enter.”)

If gamblers knew how much the odds were against them (and in favor of the house), then perhaps the reasonable person would stop gambling. (But this is, of course, assuming that gamblers are reasonable people, which is a faulty assumption in and of itself.)

well over 300 keys and no tickets so far….

Minos.5168:

It’s the same reason casino’s don’t readily publish your odds of winning. (Although, strangely enough, I think laws regulating contests require them to post your odds. See: Pretty much every contest ever. McDonald’s monopoly states this. Every online contest I’ve ever seen says “Odds are determined by number of contestants that enter.”)

If gamblers knew how much the odds were against them (and in favor of the house), then perhaps the reasonable person would stop gambling. (But this is, of course, assuming that gamblers are reasonable people, which is a faulty assumption in and of itself.)

Nearly all casino games have well known established odds and from that the house’s cut is easily determined. Slots are advertised as what percentage is returned to the player. If a slot is 98% then if you play $100 (I’m talking small denomination slots here like quarter slots) then on average after you spent your initial $100, you’ll still have on average $98. If that was in a course of an hour then it’s $2 an hour for the “entertainment” of trying to win money. Of course if you keep playing eventually the casino will have all your money. You have to think of games at a casino solely as entertainment and not as a source of income. Unless it’s a game where you play against other players and then skills rule.

I’m up to 12 keys. No ticket but still largely happy with the stuff I did get.

65 keys / 00 tickets

Over a hundred chest opened and no tickets.

I love the gauntlets from the dungeon, but was disappointed that the weapon skins didnt drop in there too. (If they do, they must be very rare) I figured they would be rare at first release and then easier to obtain from the dungeon later…

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

I don’t know what is worse, this post being unhelpful or Fused Weapons dropping from BLC’s.

One key. One ticket.

$120+ RL money into keys, i lost count after 70 keys used and not one kitten thing was useful, exp boosters and all the other boosters are kinda pointless to me seeing I only use my 80, 5% boost armor and weapons are stupid its such a piddly amount . TP and bank express are also useless when I can go to a town or sell from in the field anyway, black lion mining pick? useless I have the molten I paid $10 for.

I would EASILY have just went and paid 4000 gems(half of what I paid for keys) to know I get the skin instead of this stupid “give me money and I give you crap and make you angry at devs box”

So far 0 keys = 0 disappointment. Still holding out. I refuse to give in. Vote with your wallets!

OmniPotentes.4817:

So far 0 keys = 0 disappointment. Still holding out. I refuse to give in. Vote with your wallets!

Absolutely. Everyone who buys these keys, especially multiples of them, proves to ANet that this is what people really want. No amount of complaining in the forums will change their minds. As long as they make money doing this they will continue to offer rare items in the BL chests.

My friend just got a ticket from one key he got from story mode. He’s a level 17.

I got 3 tickets out of 83 chests. Generally, you can get a reasonable idea of rates by ignoring the extreme claims and the smaller sample sizes. Liars will lie, exaggerators will exaggerate, but they mostly stick to the extremes for dramatic effect. (Edit: not calling anyone here a liar; just making an observation.)

Btw, I also got an Endless Mystery Tonic of Turning Myself Into Tasteful Incidental Furniture. So, if you see a rustic table (or chair) in an odd spot, feel free to say hi.

I think it really depends on luck. I got it on my 1st key or 2nd not sure ( opened them really fast)

I didn’t buy a key because so many people told me they opened 50+ or sth and got nothing. I really wanted one but I thought i probably will never get it. i always have terrible luck in games. Yesterday I just remembered i had two keys on my guardian that i didn’t use. I thought : so maybe i don’t have chance to get the fused weapon but i might have a shot at the killer wale quaggan backpack skin. So i opened it =-= and thought i wouldn’t get anything because i was looking for the backpack. LOL and then i glanced at the corner of my inventory and I saw the fused weapon skin ticket :P ( i opened both of them so fast – not sure if i got it on the first key or 2nd) probably 1st. LOL i think it is pure luck ( it made me so happy ) thank you arena net ! ( appreciated this skin so much ^~^)

Opened around 60 or so chests, 0 tickets. Really, we need a system similar to Halloween where some of us with no luck can trade in all our boosters and unknown potions for at least one drop. Thankfully I didn’t spend much cash trying, but this really turns me off buying gems through either gold or real money ever again.

Vile.4685:

Opened around 60 or so chests, 0 tickets. Really, we need a system similar to Halloween where some of us with no luck can trade in all our boosters and unknown potions for at least one drop. Thankfully I didn’t spend much cash trying, but this really turns me off buying gems through either gold or real money ever again.

And Heaven forbid that you should want a matched set, such as 2 pistols or 2 daggers.

Kruhljak.2705:

I got 3 tickets out of 83 chests. Generally, you can get a reasonable idea of rates by ignoring the extreme claims and the smaller sample sizes. Liars will lie, exaggerators will exaggerate, but they mostly stick to the extremes for dramatic effect. (Edit: not calling anyone here a liar; just making an observation.)

Btw, I also got an Endless Mystery Tonic of Turning Myself Into Tasteful Incidental Furniture. So, if you see a rustic table (or chair) in an odd spot, feel free to say hi.

I did get 1 ticket out of maybe 50 tries, but i’m well over 800 keys used and I have never seen a contract or endless tonic yet… i’m almost to 3 stacks of the 1 time use tonics -.-

Kruhljak.2705:

I got 3 tickets out of 83 chests. Generally, you can get a reasonable idea of rates by ignoring the extreme claims and the smaller sample sizes. Liars will lie, exaggerators will exaggerate, but they mostly stick to the extremes for dramatic effect. (Edit: not calling anyone here a liar; just making an observation.)

Btw, I also got an Endless Mystery Tonic of Turning Myself Into Tasteful Incidental Furniture. So, if you see a rustic table (or chair) in an odd spot, feel free to say hi.

You can get a reasonable idea of rates by ignoring extreme claims. However that does not mean those people are lying. Do you know what the Bell Curve is and what it means?
While most people are going to be somewhere in the middle, some are going to be at either extreme, either getting a ticket with one try or getting none even after 100 tries. Just because you were one of the people in the middle of the Bell Curve does not mean that the people at the extremes don’t exist.

I got 2 Tickets out of $70 worth of keys.
The rest of the stuff I got were pretty much junk taking up my bank space. Not a single useful item or backpack skin.

If I spend real life money, I shouldn’t be playing the RNG with such horrible odds. It is akin to gambling. If you want to use the RNG to help get you guys money, then you should at least help the players a bit more by giving us “loaded keys”. Keys “enchanted” to give us a better chance at getting an item we want.

Enchanted Backpack key
Enchanted Kit key (higher chance of account bound things like style kits)
Enchanted Event key (higher chance of a limited time item)

Things like that would still have an element of randomness, but still allow us to filter through the piles of junk that we don’t want for a chance at an item we do want. Heck, make those keys cost a bit more. That way I could have spent more gems on other things like Minis or limited skins. It would at least help go a long way to boost confidence in a system that is quickly showing its “money grubbing” roots.

I don’t mind supporting GW2. I just don’t want to feel like I’m getting robbed by a “one armed bandit” every time I do.

5 Keys – 1 Ticket

I must have stolen someone’s RNG ^^

I’m officially done! After 230 chests and 0 tickets I’m calling it quits and not touching a chest ever again.

Gasoline.2570:

Ok Ill start, it’s simple, how many keys did you use and how many tickets did you get
57 keys
0 Tickets

Let’s see what the average will be

Sorry you didnt get a ticket… I got a key from completing my elementalist level 26 story mode, got a key open a chest and Boom! A fuse weapon ticket… that make my day.

2 keys 1 ticket… both keys are from map completion.

25keys=1 ticket. I’ll still buy more keys because I want my endless mystery tonic to become furniture XD

1 key
1 ticket. didnt know what I had at first. lol.

Just out of curiosity if you could sell fused tickets how much do you think they would be worth at moment ?

SirusDibley.3716:

Just out of curiosity if you could sell fused tickets how much do you think they would be worth at moment ?

35-50g

But they would probably start higher.

12/0

Im certainly not gambling with BLC, Ive opened the chests with keys I got ingame (map completions and drops). If I had to guess, Id say the drop rate is so low that Anet is ashamed to tell.

Got a killer whale quaggan thing at least.

Astral Projections.7320:

You can get a reasonable idea of rates by ignoring extreme claims. However that does not mean those people are lying. Do you know what the Bell Curve is and what it means?

Yes, that’s essentially what I was saying. I.e. the responses here aren’t as unworthy of the question as some implied.

Well, my outrageous claim still stands, took 270 keys to get a ticket. But, then i did open a chest with a free key i got and received another ticket. If i only knew…

I don’t know if it’s because my birthday is Sunday, or because I have been blessed with some rare particle of fairy dust, but I bought myself ten keys today as a bit of a self-birthday present and got two tickets.

10 keys/chests – 2 tickets.

Wow after reading this forum i sure don’t feel as bad as i once did… I’ve opened over 120 chest now and still not one ticket… I use to think i was the most unlucky person on my server but after reading here i’m not as far in as some ppl… Either way IMO this system for the fused weapon skins is broken and unfair in so many ways.. Why not make us earn it and not have to rely on luck and chance to get one.

I don’t know if it’s broken or unfair (everyone has the same odds, presumably), but I will say it creates more frustration than it should. Then again, any form of gambling/randomness is going to cause that to a (probably) large portion of people that engage. But we all know gambling is a massive real-world money machine…and ANet is, after all, a real-world company.

Event ended and I’m proud to announce that I bought zero keys. I don cater to money grabbing companies.

OmniPotentes.4817:

Event ended and I’m proud to announce that I bought zero keys. I don cater to money grabbing companies.

And yet you pay for internet yes? :P

Geotherma.2395:

And yet you pay for internet yes? :P

You don’t have to roll dice every morning to see if your ISP will let you use the service you paid for.

To contribute to the thread, I opened 9 chests with keys I got from completing maps and story quests on my other character, and didn’t got a single ticket. Then I opened 1 chest on my current main, and got 1 ticket. RNG…It is sad to see that people dump so much money in keys :/

Stormclaw.5031:

Geotherma.2395:

And yet you pay for internet yes? :P

You don’t have to roll dice every morning to see if your ISP will let you use the service you paid for.

Depends on your provider :P Tell that to people with dial up or DSL in remote locations heh Not to mention all the people who pay for cell phones who get capped on net usage, or bogged down. There is RNG irl too, some people just aren’t used to it in a game.

But my response was to the statement about not catering to money grubbing companies. i could list a hundred of them, some you probably use walmart, internet, cell phones, cable, buying the game itself… But thats beside the point.
Edit: Just noticed that wasn’t the original reply poster, but my info remains the same :P

I did try my chance at the rng monster and I knew full well my chances when I did. If I didn’t get a ticket I can only blame myself as they are optional and in no way help my character other than visual “prettyness”. Around 170 ish keys, 4 tickets. 2 daggers, 1 shortbow, 1 greatsword. My guardian has the new mace/shield + fused GS, my thief has the fused daggers, short bow, and new quiver.

Geotherma.2395:

I did try my chance at the rng monster and I knew full well my chances when I did. If I didn’t get a ticket I can only blame myself as they are optional and in no way help my character other than visual “prettyness”. Around 170 ish keys, 4 tickets. 2 daggers, 1 shortbow, 1 greatsword. My guardian has the new mace/shield + fused GS, my thief has the fused daggers, short bow, and new quiver.

I’m genuinely curious how you feel about the purchase and the RNG after the fact? By my math if you spent money for all the keys that would be approximately $190. Would you do it again? Is it something you are content to pay every couple of months for new skins or was it more a one time thing? What about compared to the Mace/Shield skins you bought separately?

Grim.6415:

Geotherma.2395:

I did try my chance at the rng monster and I knew full well my chances when I did. If I didn’t get a ticket I can only blame myself as they are optional and in no way help my character other than visual “prettyness”. Around 170 ish keys, 4 tickets. 2 daggers, 1 shortbow, 1 greatsword. My guardian has the new mace/shield + fused GS, my thief has the fused daggers, short bow, and new quiver.

I’m genuinely curious how you feel about the purchase and the RNG after the fact? By my math if you spent money for all the keys that would be approximately $190. Would you do it again? Is it something you are content to pay every couple of months for new skins or was it more a one time thing? What about compared to the Mace/Shield skins you bought separately?

How I personally see it (and this is based on my income and life etc, everyone is different), at $15 a month for subs you are spending $180 a year on sub games. Add in the price of the game itself, say $60, and you have $240 a year. So if I value the game, and feel they have things I would like, there is a set limit to how much I’m willing to spend on something that is solely RNG. The mace and shield I have, I enjoy quite a bit, same with the 2 quivers, the mini, and various other things. When I decide on RNG purchases I think of that golden number $240, now I would lose this in a year no matter how much I play that sub game. So when I hit $240 whether it be in a day, a month or 8 months later, then I decide if I will go further into RNG items. I consider it a “heres a chance at getting that skin, you have my support for what I would waste on a sub game.” Now if I hit that amount and get nothing, then I’ll no longer use that money to play RNG. I will only buy things that are guaranteed, and thus supporting those things and the game itself.

I personally believe they deserve at least as much as a sub game a year, so I give them that on their RNG factor items. Beyond that I’m only supporting through 100% items/addons etc. Now since I DID get those tickets X4, I feel it was money well spent in my case. If I hadn’t then I would not continue to play RNG this year. So I guess in the end I could say Arenanet has my money for RNG items up to that cap, or less depending on my liking of it or not. But just to that cap, you introduce too much RNG and I will not support it, and in the future could influence my purchasing decisions on those 100% items as well.

Now I spend much money on the game because it is really my only hobby outside of real life stuff. I’m neither rich nor poor in my opinion, and play the game because I find it relaxing. I don’t pvp really, sometimes I will check out wvw though. So when they give me an opportunity to better my experience in game I take it. But even I have my limits, as do most. I generally enjoy the “gamble” most call it, but as you can see I set limits for myself. And by the design of the gem store as is, I would say they will get much more out of me with 100% items, than with RNG based luck. I have no problem supporting the game, but i don’t hold it against them for having 1 aspect in gem store that many people do not like. Much like judging a book by its cover, there is so much more “good” then “bad” in GW2.

Geotherma.2395:

Snip

That seems reasonable to me as well. I bought the CE, 3 extra character slots, bank expansion, primeval set, mad king costume, all of which I felt pretty good about because I knew what I was paying for.

I spent another $20 or so in the gem store during the karka event on chest keys and can’t really say I was very happy with the shoulder skins I got out of it. Haven’t bought any keys since. I don’t think I would spend any more on RNG skins at this point but I gave some serious thought to the shield/mace but I just don’t use them on my main’s setup.

I’d say about 50 tries, got nothing.

Then today, I did a casual opening of the chests not expecting too much, and I got a ticket on the very last one I opened.

Well here’s to farming lvl 10 personal story quests. Watch, theyll make them really hard now this next patch instead of addressing the real problem haha

Eternis.1746:

Well here’s to farming lvl 10 personal story quests. Watch, theyll make them really hard now this next patch instead of addressing the real problem haha

Going to take a stab that the real problem here is that these fantastic weapon skins are hiding behind some random system instead of being flat out sold. It continues to be frustrating for a lot of players, especially those with any common sense with money. It is unfortunate A.Net has not rectified the situation. It is not remotely fair for the play base and only gives A.Net a bad reputation. This problem has been overshadowing a lot of great stuff going on otherwise.

21 Chests, 1 Ticket

Bought 20 keys, got nothing. Got 1 key from daily and got it ;p;

Yeah, it is to easy to get sucked into the gamble of the BL chests. I bought gems, bought 10 keys and used like 5 others I had stored. Got nothing but oh well.

But they do seem to be to rare…just going by observation…they seem to be as rare as fractal skins…thats a bit to much imo. Something bought should have a much great drop rate.

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

That is what is known as a ‘Microsoft answer’ Technically correct but utterly useless. Unless YOU are going to post statistically accurate numbers I dont even know why you bothered making a post other than to just poke fun at someone.

ocgreg.3910:

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

That is what is known as a ‘Microsoft answer’ Technically correct but utterly useless. Unless YOU are going to post statistically accurate numbers I dont even know why you bothered making a post other than to just poke fun at someone.

I agree. If he isn’t going to tell us the odds then a post like that comes off as condescending. We know already that the forum posts will be based and inaccurate. But it’s all we have. At least getting information from other people gives you some idea what the odds are. If ANet won’t tell us then how else are we to get it, no matter how inaccurate and biased the information is.

Still no word if they are still in chests? Seriously A-net, one simple answer would suffice. Anyone got any after 14th?

These Drop rates are bullkitten, your RNG boxes are basically theft or a bait & switch.