Guild Wars 2

Shufflepants.9785:

Ayrilana.1396:

Shufflepants.9785:

Anyone complaining that they have x hours played and still no pre drop was under the mistaken impression that they had a reasonable chance of ever getting one to drop.

How many people here have played WoW? Did you ever have a bind on equip epic drop for you out in the open world? I never did. And I never expected to. It’s the same with precursors. If you expect to, don’t. It’s like expecting to win the lottery.

More like there’s no direct correlation between hours played and precursor drops.

In a strictly theoretical long term sense, there is a correlation between hours played and number of precursor drops, but because the drop rate is so low, the correlation is hard to see. For it to become readily evident on your own account, you’d need to play for hundreds of thousands if not millions of hours (more than a life time). This is why I say no one should ever expect to get one.

So if I AFK in LA for 8K hours then that means I am due a precursor soon? Hours alone have no direct correlation as I have already stated. It has more to do with what you actually do in the game. Someone who levels 12+ characters is less likely to get a precursor as someone who farms and spends their earnings on the MF. It has been widely theorized that the bulk of precursors come from the MF.

You also need to take a look of the drop rate on an aggregate level across the population. Almost anything you do in the game has a chance for a precursor. If the rate were increased, supply would dramatically increase as well.

Mireles Lore.5942:

Thats cute.

Try 7000+ hours. No precursor drop.

that sucks I’m at 4877 & still not one kittenin drop.

Ayrilana.1396:

So if I AFK in LA for 8K hours then that means I am due a precursor soon? Hours alone have no direct correlation as I have already stated. It has more to do with what you actually do in the game. Someone who levels 12+ characters is less likely to get a precursor as someone who farms and spends their earnings on the MF. It has been widely theorized that the bulk of precursors come from the MF.

You also need to take a look of the drop rate on an aggregate level across the population. Almost anything you do in the game has a chance for a precursor. If the rate were increased, supply would dramatically increase as well.

In all respect that’s bullcrap. This ll relate too the fact that th RNG sucks in this game.
When I’m in game I play & only with my level 80 characrter. Not sitting Idly in lion arch, looking at TP.

One of my guildies got more than 15 precursor from mystyc forge alone, then to add insult to injuries he got another on his secondary account that was just 100 hours new.
I got another guildies that already dropped 3 precursors in fractals & she plays less than me.

Basandra Skye.4031:

IndigoSundown.5419:

It’s also food for thought to consider that, if a similarly sized sample produced 10x the drops (the outcome if it took 1/10 the bags to get 1), the drop rate would change from 85/10,000 for a percent to 85/1,000 of a percent. While that is a higher drop rate, it would still be considered to be abysmal by many players.

An estimated drop rate, as RNG being RNG, it IS prone to streaks. While the odds of it would be low, it’s still enough of a likelihood to reduce something from being just short of a concrete number to being merely an estimate. Anet stating a confirmation is what takes it from theory to proven.

Not to mention, it DOES matter how many it took before he got it. Was it 100? 200? 3000? That number’s the real benchmark for an estimated drop rate, not the “I opened X in all, and got Y” number you’re going off.

Statistics provide an opportunity for greater reliability in making predictions. Of course these predictions are estimates of the actual drop rate, which is known only to the developer. That does not change the fact that larger sample sizes provide a greater likelihood that the estimate is closer to the hidden actuality. It is also true, as Kentaine states, that further tests of similar sample sizes would generate an overall prediction with greater reliability.

As to your other contention: probability allows us to predict how often an event will take place. but does not allow us to predict at which place in a sequence an event will take place. Probability is determined by dividing the number of cases where a given result occurs by the total number of cases. You’re talking about using extrapolation to predict where outside a given sequence an event is likely to occur. While that is also a valid statistical method, for the purposes of determining a percentile chance of an event occurring, a simple examination of probability suffices.

papry.8096:

Mireles Lore.5942:

Thats cute.

Try 7000+ hours. No precursor drop.

that sucks I’m at 4877 & still not one kittenin drop.

Ayrilana.1396:

So if I AFK in LA for 8K hours then that means I am due a precursor soon? Hours alone have no direct correlation as I have already stated. It has more to do with what you actually do in the game. Someone who levels 12+ characters is less likely to get a precursor as someone who farms and spends their earnings on the MF. It has been widely theorized that the bulk of precursors come from the MF.

You also need to take a look of the drop rate on an aggregate level across the population. Almost anything you do in the game has a chance for a precursor. If the rate were increased, supply would dramatically increase as well.

In all respect that’s bullcrap. This ll relate too the fact that th RNG sucks in this game.
When I’m in game I play & only with my level 80 characrter. Not sitting Idly in lion arch, looking at TP.

One of my guildies got more than 15 precursor from mystyc forge alone, then to add insult to injuries he got another on his secondary account that was just 100 hours new.
I got another guildies that already dropped 3 precursors in fractals & she plays less than me.

Yep and your situation relates to the second part of by post. With the expansion, all of this won’t really matter anymore anyway.

Right aggregate population; you don’t think there is a problem when one person get 15 precursors & others get 0 ?

It comes down to what you do. Veteran player while they have more experience they tend to skip most mob in dungeon and in open world.

I have gotten a pre doing ac and one doing Arah defence event. I also have gotten one from the mystic forge when I had a mystic conduit.

If you only kill big bosses and skip mob a lot you are not rolling the dice for a chance at a precursor.

Then you wonder why you have gotten a drop in 1, 2 or 3 years. New player tend to kill everything once you stop doing that you dramatically decrease your chances to get a precursor drop.

The same with dungeon recipes people skip so many mobs and they wonder why they haven’t got one.

papry.8096:

Right aggregate population; you don’t think there is a problem when one person get 15 precursors & others get 0 ?

No. It all has to do with probability and they’re just one of the outliers. I haven’t heard of people getting 15 from drops, so if that number isn’t an exaggeration, then most of them liking came from the MF.

2940 here, no precursor. Doesn’t sound overly strange tbh. My guild is all around those hours, and the only one to ever find one was my GF. They’re just very very rare.

Serraphin Storm.2369:

It comes down to what you do. Veteran player while they have more experience they tend to skip most mob in dungeon and in open world.

I have gotten a pre doing ac and one doing Arah defence event. I also have gotten one from the mystic forge when I had a mystic conduit.

If you only kill big bosses and skip mob a lot you are not rolling the dice for a chance at a precursor.

Then you wonder why you have gotten a drop in 1, 2 or 3 years. New player tend to kill everything once you stop doing that you dramatically decrease your chances to get a precursor drop.

The same with dungeon recipes people skip so many mobs and they wonder why they haven’t got one.

I think this is untrue. If anything, vets are more likely to get pres because they have more tokens and gold to gamble with. I bet you getting pres from mobs is much less likely than forging. Plus, even semi-hardcore dungeon runners kill more mobs “skipping” through dungeons than the average casual SW chest farmer.

Khristophoros.7194:

Is that strange? I always kinda assumed I would never find one.

Hubby and I have been playing since launch and have yet to receive a precursor. Not a big deal to me. I undestand HoT will have a direct way to obtain them, so we will undoubtedly go that route.

8176hours no precursor… (i dont count the one i won in a livestream giveaway)

That’s totally normal.
Don’t lose hope.
Just keep killing mobs, enemy players, npcs and so on.
A decent magic find % might help as well.

I never thought I would ever get a precursor drop even if I have been playing every day for more than 2.5 years until 2 days ago when I got one from an NPC at one WvW keep.

Don’t lose hope. I’ve playing the game much longer than my boyfriend and never found one and he found the dagger, the 1h sword and the mace within two weaks after nearly a one year break from guildwars. I was very happy for him but also a little bit furious. In the end its just what rng is and forever will be and I’m not completly convinced that the new way to lay your hands on one of those weapons comes without relying again on rng.

Ayrilana.1396:

So if I AFK in LA for 8K hours then that means I am due a precursor soon? Hours alone have no direct correlation as I have already stated. It has more to do with what you actually do in the game. Someone who levels 12+ characters is less likely to get a precursor as someone who farms and spends their earnings on the MF. It has been widely theorized that the bulk of precursors come from the MF.

You also need to take a look of the drop rate on an aggregate level across the population. Almost anything you do in the game has a chance for a precursor. If the rate were increased, supply would dramatically increase as well.

I think you’re confused about what I meant or perhaps you don’t know the difference between correlation and causation. I said that they were correlated, as in on the whole, as an average over all types of game play, either assuming a person is an “average player” or averaging across all players, as the number of hours played goes up, so does the expected value of number of precursors obtained (but this is only noticeable in the extreme long run due to the extremely low drop rate).

And I never said anything about anyone being “due a precursor soon”. That kind of thinking is what we call a gamblers fallacy. Your previous drops (or lack thereof) have no effect on the likelihood of getting future drops. But if you combined everyone’s play time and precursor drops into one giant graph as if they were all one player, there would be a positive correlation between played time and number of precursor drops.

This is a really simple statement and makes perfect intuitive sense when phrased as “you have to be playing the game to get precursors”.

You’re right that “Hours alone have no direct correlation”, but I didn’t say “hours alone”, I said hours. As in idealized “average hours” across all players, games modes, and behavior.

Shufflepants.9785:

Ayrilana.1396:

So if I AFK in LA for 8K hours then that means I am due a precursor soon? Hours alone have no direct correlation as I have already stated. It has more to do with what you actually do in the game. Someone who levels 12+ characters is less likely to get a precursor as someone who farms and spends their earnings on the MF. It has been widely theorized that the bulk of precursors come from the MF.

You also need to take a look of the drop rate on an aggregate level across the population. Almost anything you do in the game has a chance for a precursor. If the rate were increased, supply would dramatically increase as well.

I think you’re confused about what I meant or perhaps you don’t know the difference between correlation and causation. I said that they were correlated, as in on the whole, as an average over all types of game play, either assuming a person is an “average player” or averaging across all players, as the number of hours played goes up, so does the expected value of number of precursors obtained (but this is only noticeable in the extreme long run due to the extremely low drop rate).

And I never said anything about anyone being “due a precursor soon”. That kind of thinking is what we call a gamblers fallacy. Your previous drops (or lack thereof) have no effect on the likelihood of getting future drops. But if you combined everyone’s play time and precursor drops into one giant graph as if they were all one player, there would be a positive correlation between played time and number of precursor drops.

This is a really simple statement and makes perfect intuitive sense when phrased as “you have to be playing the game to get precursors”.

You’re right that “Hours alone have no direct correlation”, but I didn’t say “hours alone”, I said hours. As in idealized “average hours” across all players, games modes, and behavior.

People are just posting hours and not exactly what it is that they were doing. There’s also the bit I mentioned about the drop rate over the population on an aggregate level rather than individual.

Liisjak.4509:

If you played more than 1k hours you should have been able to easily afford one from the TP.

Stupidity is not an excuse you drop on bad luck.

The point

Your head.

I’ll explain this simply: It isn’t about getting the weapon itself. It is about wealth and equality. A precursors is basically a gigantic gold bonus that falls from the sky. Literally months of work for some people, and an unfathomable amount of gold for others. It is a major time saver, enabling greater enjoyment of the game at a much faster pace and a more convenient timeframe.

This is where we get into the equality aspect. With precursors being oodles gold harvested from the hopes and dreams of the less fortunate, and with so many people who’ve apparently received one, countless players are left disenfranchised. They’re wondering “Where’s my big break? I’ve been playing the game for so long! It’s not fair!”. They think that it is some kind of conspiracy, or cosmic error that they’ve been working so hard and yet everyone else is getting their windfall.

Even if you can afford one in months time, the fact is there are other people who also could afford one, but don’t have to because it fell from the sky. So they’re sitting on top of a fat stack of cash in the same timeframe that leaves others broke.

Why do these Precursor threads list the hours logged in? The number of hours you are logged into the game has NO bearing on how many actual chances to get a precursor (via MF tosses, kills, etc.). The OP could have been standing idle in LA chatting for 2000 hours (not saying that’s the case).

Yes, the hours you are logged on DOES indicate how obsesiv….err dedicated you may be to GW2, but it gives NO indication as to the type of activities you participate in that actually CAN generate a Precursor drop.

Tis a silly number!

I will tell you guys something which sounds really…really..bad..for us..
A guildie got in 30 Minutes 3 precursor.
He gets the first out of mystic forge, after that we roamed a bit. Then he got his second. After that he sold them and tried it again with the mystic forge.
The third dropped after a few trys.

papry.8096:

Right aggregate population; you don’t think there is a problem when one person get 15 precursors & others get 0 ?

The people I know who have gotten several do a lot more mystic forging than I do. I’m somewhere around 5100 hours now, and I got 2x Rage back to back from the forge (in the evening before I logged out, then when I logged in the next morning). Sold one for 80-something gold and gave one away. I count my Xanthium of Dreams staff looted from Aether path as my one and only precursor drop. It sold for ~900 gold.

I suppose I should also count the third Rage I got from a guild raffle.
/rage

Little over 1000 and zip

Legends were supposed to be something to reward play if I remember correctly something that can come about naturally. Of course this isn’t the case and people who have played for years and supported this game have nothing to show for there hard work. In less than a months time I could gather the remaining mats I would need to complete a legendary aside the precursor and the level of RNG involved just isn’t right… I know many people like myself who have the Gifts crafted yet lack the precursor…

Time spent is irrelevant.

Number of Rare/Exotic weapon forges and number of enemies killed on a level 80 character are the two numbers you need to track if you want to know if you are behind or ahead of the precursor curve.

Not even 1k hrs….7 precs already

1020 hours, 1 ascended armor chest and 4 ascended weapons chests and 1 delusional staff.