Guild Wars 2

lolitsage.2185:

breaking news gambling has risks

Lol, so true. Which is why I’m not even touching this whole ecto gamble thing with a 10 foot pole. I’m not the kinda person that risks it all. I’m the kinda person that will risk to some extent, with investments (like skins etc.) where I know I can at least get my money back if needs be.

It’s the same reason I’ve never gambled with the mystic toilet, when it comes to precursors. My luck is SO bad at the best of times.

I bought myself one of the new mystic forge conduits for 160g though. I think I’ll use it a lot since I get runes and sigils coming out my ears from salvaging stuff daily. I feel a little sorry for all those who lost a lot of money with this, but at the same time I think, well, it was a gamble and you knew it could go either way also :-/ I’m just glad to be benefitting from buying a relatively cheap (compared to the tradable version’s 1200g+ price tag before) account bound mystic forge conduit from all of this :-P

Illuzion.3576:

May I kindly ask where is this Ecto Vendor located?

It’s on the west side of Lions Arch. There is an ecto looking icon where it is. You’ll need to go to a nearby poi in the water then look for an underwater tunnel that leads to it.

So it’s like you buy the ecto and see how many ectos it gives you back? Don’t really know how it works =/

Illuzion.3576:

So it’s like you buy the ecto and see how many ectos it gives you back? Don’t really know how it works =/

You buy Destabilized Ectoplasm with Globs of Ectoplasm + Coins. You then open the Destabilized Ectoplasm to receive Globs of Ectoplasm and junk items that sell for Coins.

As noted above, the trendline seems to indicate that over time you will gain Ectos and lose Gold doing this.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Destabilized_Ectoplasm

It’s definitely hit/miss. The ultimate RNG. I started with 2250 gold and 612 ectos and after 500 tries with the ascended Destabilized Ectoplasm I ended up at 5800+ gold and 1800+ ectos. The ups and downs were insane, went down as low as 800 gold left and shot up to 5800.

I had to stop, was too much for me.

Why people still talk about “bad/good luck”?

Do you really think Anet put this NPC so that we players can win LONG-TERM? It’s just a roulette in game, we don’t have enough data yet, but I’m pretty sure that long-term it’s +EV only for the vendor.

And if you don’t know what EV means, you should stay away from gambling, even in GW2. :P

To illustrate why you should not use the more expensive gambles, consider this scenario:

You have $100.00. A gambler is willing to bet you on coin flips. Tails he wins, heads you win. A 50/50 shot at doubling your money.

You could wager all $100.00 on one flip, meaning you have a 50% chance of losing EVERYTHING. Instead, you could wager $5.00 on 20 separate flips, each with their own 50/50 chance. Your chances of losing everything are now roughly 1/1,000,000. You just drastically improved your wealth preservation odds by simply lowering your wager.

The reason? You’ve still got a 50/50 shot on each individual toss, but because you’ve increased the number of tosses, your actual results will be closer to 50/50 rather than 0/100.

Bought one 50e4g, got back 100e6g and stopped because I didn’t want to press my luck lol

Is noone else offended because ANet keeps tricking us with most cheap attempts imaginable? I mean, at least they could try to hide their intentions behind a less obvious system. But no, just create a new mystic toilet and combine it with an achievement which lures people into gambling and easily swallows hundrets and thousands of gold and ectos.

Not gonna fall for it.

To put it simply; gambling is not designed to benefit you, it’s meant to benefit itself. Even if you get lucky or you hear someone else had, it’s just a trap. ;o NPC wants all your dosh.

Clyan.1593:

Is noone else offended because ANet keeps tricking us with most cheap attempts imaginable? I mean, at least they could try to hide their intentions behind a less obvious system. But no, just create a new mystic toilet and combine it with an achievement which lures people into gambling and easily swallows hundrets and thousands of gold and ectos.

Not gonna fall for it.

Lmao “tricking”? No one is making you do it. They never promise you’re gonna get rich. You see other players getting lucky and you are deciding if you want to take the financial gamble.

cocowoushi.7150:

Clyan.1593:

Is noone else offended because ANet keeps tricking us with most cheap attempts imaginable? I mean, at least they could try to hide their intentions behind a less obvious system. But no, just create a new mystic toilet and combine it with an achievement which lures people into gambling and easily swallows hundrets and thousands of gold and ectos.

Not gonna fall for it.

Lmao “tricking”? No one is making you do it. They never promise you’re gonna get rich. You see other players getting lucky and you are deciding if you want to take the financial gamble.

Ahem, i never claimed tricking is the same as forceing. And my point was not the risk of gamling. Read again.

Hey just wanted to hear your guys’s thoughts the ecto gamble in the skrit cave in LA.
To me it seems like you make money the first time or two but after that you steadily make less and less or lose money.
I have not yet tried the ascended one so i was hoping to hear your guys’s experiences with it

You have more chances to turn 100 Gold into 25 Gold. I’m guestimating the chances of you turning 100 Gold into 500 Gold at 5%.

I maxed out the Legendary Tarrktun Supporter achievement with spending 10,000 Gold and 25,000 Ecto. I think I’m down 1500 Gold in total after all that.

I tried the cheapest option twice for fun. Lost out both times, haven’t looked back.

It’s a gold and ecto sink. By this definition alone you’d know that you get less out than you put in. That does factor in for all the players using it though so who knows, you might get lucky.

I’ve read of people being up 350g, then droping to being down 100g. The smartest ones gave it a try, and stoped no matter if they won or lost. That is unless you like gambling.

Borridian.1852:

it seems like you make money the first time or two but after that you steadily make less and less or lose money.

It’s random, not deterministic. So the fact that you made a profit early was due to chance, not design. Others will lose first and win later and still others won’t win at all. If you buy enough of them, all the data suggests you’ll eventually lose money.

So it’s just like playing roulette: if you’re on a hot streak, you’ll end up ahead as long as you stop. If you keep on playing, the house’s edge will eventually cancel out any streak.

So, just like gambling, if you don’t like the thrill of spinning the wheel (regardless of the results), don’t play the game.

I haven’t played it much. I broke even and decided that was good enough for me. A better money maker, I’ve found, is selling the ectos at higher prices than normal.

Eh, I went to at least try it once. I have the worst luck in this game at everything, so I didn’t expect much. But after buying the cheapest one, the return was more than I had before so I profited.

But won’t do it again. Just wanted to do it so I can say I did, but I actually despise gamble features like that in games. Like the Black Lion Chests. Hate them with a passion.

It is worse than a gamble. Waste of extreme amounts of gold and ecto.

I don’t mind it being there and although it isn’t my thing, it is great to have something that different types of players can enjoy. Some people have made huge amounts of gold but I would rather not risk it. Tried the 100g option once to get the 1AP and got a return of 25g and 50 ecto. I will not be going back in fear of losing more.

There has been overwhelmingly strong opinions in the RNG thread made by ArenaNet’s economist and yet here we are still feeding the obligatory RNG Machine. Actually, what does it matter to me? I don’t even play anymore outside of finishing my dailies in case the desire to one day return overtakes me. I really wish ArenaNet would think outside the box with this stuff though.

I managed to somewhat break even on cost. I ended with more ecto and less cash, but the difference approximated what I might have spent buying them from the trading post. =P
I quit while I was theoretically ahead.

Currently short 100 ectos but +300gold after 43 times of ascended item. I will leave be for some time. Also in my progress i had lost 1k ectos and 500 gold, but managed to get where i am now

So after doing more than enough “testing” with my own results, the house wins roughly 3%-5% over time. The variability is actually the price of ectos/mystic pieces on the trading post. My “test” is still a small sample size comparatively so actual results may vary but appears to be in line with other larger sample size that I’ve seen others post.

What this tells me is that there is a point when you can sell ectos ~50s net each (after trading post fees instead of the ~38s per currently) or if mystic pieces sky-rocketed where you can actually make more than what you could lose, that over time you could make some copper assuming ecto demand remained high enough to keep the trading post price up.

However, there is also dramatic level of variability of results but with enough sample size chances (use the lowest buy version to get the highest probability of standardized return) that converts gold to ectos, that there is a point that a positive return is very possible (assuming ecto sale prices remain above that point).

Effectively, this merchant adds an in-game ecto price ceiling.

I actually wonder if this was ANet’s intent all along or it is just a happy coincidence.

I am at 60/100 atm for the achievment.

Started with 1100G and 380e.

Firs couple of times I got really good stuff (Likely the ascended glob of ectoplasm, that gives you 500 ecto back, or 5 of the 100g worth junk iten, what means 500g in one try).

I flucuated until a maximum of 1300e and 1650g. After that, I’ve been losing more and more, so now I am sitting at 40e and 500g.

Yes, it pretty much seens like you win the first times, and then lose in a substancial way the couple of times after you reach the top.

Win first – never use it again – profit forever!

i used it this morning, spent 50g made 50g profit on the ectos i got, i also got a nexus piece, spent my 100g on a frame, mystic coins and node, sold my conduit and now have 200g

i have since tried again with small amounts but to no avail, my advice have money to throw away before u even try this method.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

It’s random, not deterministic. So the fact that you made a profit early was due to chance, not design. Others will lose first and win later and still others won’t win at all. If you buy enough of them, all the data suggests you’ll eventually lose money.

So it’s just like playing roulette: if you’re on a hot streak, you’ll end up ahead as long as you stop. If you keep on playing, the house’s edge will eventually cancel out any streak.

So, just like gambling, if you don’t like the thrill of spinning the wheel (regardless of the results), don’t play the game.

It IS gambling. Let’s not lie, here. You are wagering gold and ecto, for a chance to make more gold and/or ecto in return. The fact that it’s not “real life” gambling doesn’t change that it is most definitely gambling.

“It is worse than a gamble. Waste of extreme amounts of gold and ecto.”

Now, listen here, Pilgrim – once again, that is gambling. Gambling is a waste of money. You either get lucky and stop, or the odds WILL eat you alive. Every casino in the world is built on this.

I tried it out once, just to say I tried it. I paid 5e and 40s. I got six ectoplasm and a junk item worth 10 silver. And then I stopped. I figure I may try it once a month, and will probably keep track of wins or losses. Just for curiosity’s sake.

On chat, I heard of people winning big, but I heard a lot more of how many lost big – including one who lost 700 gold (from savings for a legendary, no less!) to that skritt.

Why do they keep playing? Because, of course, they could win. Those who had initial winnings are heartened, and want to win more. Those who lost money will want to win it back. They’ll pay anything for one more spin of the wheel….

I have ZERO motivation to talk to this Skritt. Seriously. There enough gambling built into this game with horrible RNG. Why would I opt to lose both gold AND a valuable material in a gamble???

I’d rather take 500 dollars to Vegas and play some blackjack.

Since most of use won’t be rich / stupid / daring enough to play this roulette, the feature could have been made a whole lot more interesting if there was a big wheel that the skritt would throw your ecto onto, so onlookers could watch them go round & round until they fall into mystery boxes.
Then the skritt would announce the winnings in /say.

Missed a fabulous opportunity for highroller casino events there!

just seems to be a way to make ecto’s even more expensive on the broker than they already are. I probably would have done it more than once or twice if it was less of a high roller gamble and used a cheaper resource.

The more common resources don’t need the sinks. Clearly, they felt ectoplasm was losing its value.

And Spooky? I suggested in WC a few days ago that they should have had that skritt missing an arm. (Unfortunately, only one person present in that discussion got the joke.)

Lol. One-armed bandit?

Bingo. Or “Yes, indeed.” Either reply will work, but are too short to be real posts, it seems.

ahahah! that’s pretty funny, Duke, and nicely subtle.

Duke Darkwood.4237:

Bingo. Or “Yes, indeed.” Either reply will work, but are too short to be real posts, it seems.

Indeed.

^Spaces are considered alpha-numeric characters, so no 15 Asura dancing needed. =)

Its just yet another way for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

I made 55 gold on it after selling the ectos I won on trader. I won’t go back and try again, will take the win and not get sucked into a cycle that will eventually take it all back!

SenorMoody.5908:

Its just yet another way for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

Couldn’t agree more.

SenorMoody.5908:

Its just yet another way for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

Are you implying that rich people somehow have better odds in RNG gambles? Like once you hit 1000g your rng modifier goes up or something?

That seems unlikely…

More likely is that the rich know when to stop when they are ahead and thus get richer, while the poor don’t have any economic sense so they keep gambling until they lose all their money and then complain that they are poor.

Duke Darkwood.4237:

The more common resources don’t need the sinks. Clearly, they felt ectoplasm was losing its value.

And Spooky? I suggested in WC a few days ago that they should have had that skritt missing an arm. (Unfortunately, only one person present in that discussion got the joke.)

A smarter ANet option would have been to use Exotic Essences of Luck. That way you ensure not only Globs are removed from the economy but all the ‘junk’ on the trading post would have seen a rise/forever option for demand as well.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

SenorMoody.5908:

Its just yet another way for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

Are you implying that rich people somehow have better odds in RNG gambles? Like once you hit 1000g your rng modifier goes up or something?

That seems unlikely…

More likely is that the rich know when to stop when they are ahead and thus get richer, while the poor don’t have any economic sense so they keep gambling until they lose all their money and then complain that they are poor.

nope, just basic probability.

Let’s say the chance to hit the jackpot is 1 in a million.
A poor player could probably afford 1 ticket/dice roll/ chance. So his odds of winning the jackpot is simply 1 in a million.

A rich player can afford many more Tickets/dice rolls/chances… say 100.
His chances at winning the jackpot increased to 1 in 10,000.

I don’t know the actual odds of getting the good stuff, but yes the rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer.

SenorMoody.5908:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

SenorMoody.5908:

Its just yet another way for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

Are you implying that rich people somehow have better odds in RNG gambles? Like once you hit 1000g your rng modifier goes up or something?

That seems unlikely…

More likely is that the rich know when to stop when they are ahead and thus get richer, while the poor don’t have any economic sense so they keep gambling until they lose all their money and then complain that they are poor.

nope, just basic probability.

Let’s say the chance to hit the jackpot is 1 in a million.
A poor player could probably afford 1 ticket/dice roll/ chance. So his odds of winning the jackpot is simply 1 in a million.

A rich player can afford many more Tickets/dice rolls/chances… say 100.
His chances at winning the jackpot increased to 1 in 10,000.

I don’t know the actual odds of getting the good stuff, but yes the rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer.

This is not how probability works.

SenorMoody.5908:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

SenorMoody.5908:

Its just yet another way for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

Are you implying that rich people somehow have better odds in RNG gambles? Like once you hit 1000g your rng modifier goes up or something?

That seems unlikely…

More likely is that the rich know when to stop when they are ahead and thus get richer, while the poor don’t have any economic sense so they keep gambling until they lose all their money and then complain that they are poor.

nope, just basic probability.

Let’s say the chance to hit the jackpot is 1 in a million.
A poor player could probably afford 1 ticket/dice roll/ chance. So his odds of winning the jackpot is simply 1 in a million.

A rich player can afford many more Tickets/dice rolls/chances… say 100.
His chances at winning the jackpot increased to 1 in 10,000.

I don’t know the actual odds of getting the good stuff, but yes the rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer.

I don’t think that is how playing the lottery works… if that it worked like that, a millionaire could buy a million tickets and guarantee a winning jackpot.

SenorMoody.5908:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

SenorMoody.5908:

Its just yet another way for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer.

Are you implying that rich people somehow have better odds in RNG gambles? Like once you hit 1000g your rng modifier goes up or something?

That seems unlikely…

More likely is that the rich know when to stop when they are ahead and thus get richer, while the poor don’t have any economic sense so they keep gambling until they lose all their money and then complain that they are poor.

nope, just basic probability.

Let’s say the chance to hit the jackpot is 1 in a million.
A poor player could probably afford 1 ticket/dice roll/ chance. So his odds of winning the jackpot is simply 1 in a million.

A rich player can afford many more Tickets/dice rolls/chances… say 100.
His chances at winning the jackpot increased to 1 in 10,000.

I don’t know the actual odds of getting the good stuff, but yes the rich will get richer, and the poor will get poorer.

Basic probability dictates that, over time, averages rule. So as this formula goes to infinite, you can look at the average change to figure out what’s going to happen. And the average, in this case, is to lose money.

So if a rich person put 10,000g into the equation they will end up with the average of the event: a net loss of 200g (.02 loss of gold for every 1 gold put in) + a loss of 5500 in Ectoplasm (.22 loss of an Ecto for every 1 Ecto put in).

Yes, you get to make more rolls if you’re rich, but you’ll lose in the exact same way as if you bought every single number in the real lottery: yes you got the winning ticket, but that means jack squat when the amount needed to get it is vastly larger than the amount that you’re getting out. Yes you can quickly win some gold, but you’re still going to have to be extremely lucky to not lose out. It’s a gamble. That’s how this works.

Now there is some drop research building up it’s pretty clear that this is just a lose lose activity which nobody will bother with. There is absolutely nothing in it for the player other than massive loss.

It’s not like anyone has to do this. Even the achievement isn’t mandatory.

Sandpit.3467:

Now there is some drop research building up it’s pretty clear that this is just a lose lose activity which nobody will bother with. There is absolutely nothing in it for the player other than massive loss.

Actually, I found it quite fun to get the achievement, even though I lost a lot of money. I love opening things to see what I randomly get. Champ bags, chests, etc. I would have preferred it to be more than 2 AP though with the amount of Gold it takes. I’ll start my fun again after I’ve flipped enough stuff to build up my ecto fund. My goal is to buy the 20 Destabilized Ecto batch at least once.

Onto the reward. It actually serves two purposes. Not only can you buy destabilized globs anywhere you want, but it also acts as a portable merchant that you can unload your junk on. It comes in handy on long SW Chest runs or even in WvW when your bags are full.