Guild Wars 2

Dear Anet,

A friend of mine got 4 dusks and 5 dawns in 4 days with only using rare krait great swords. Is the RNG bugged in the Mystic Forge? I am grinding for dusk to finish my Twilight, i put more then 900+ rare gs in mf but no succes. And this guy gets for sake those expensive weapons. Honestly Anet, this game is really great and i’m enjoying but i and my guildies are raging out. Is this fair? Is this RNG working right? Is the RNG really based on what account you have? One account has the luck to get that much precursors and the other account doesn’t. Really and i beg you Anet, and also beg for an answer: is this fair?

Greetings from a big fan.
Khalar Hammerstorm

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

I personally think your guildie is lying.

And even if it actually did happen, that is how RNG is. It is not based on account, it is based on a more or less random algorithm. Some times people get lucky, some times they don’t.

Just like in the real world.

RNG is RNG. Plus, people also like to exaggerate and lie. Plus plus, odds are that friend put even more greatswords than you did into the forge and also had very unlucky streaks in the past where he also didn’t get anything.

He’s not lying, he showed it with pictures and recordings. When he put 180 rare gs in the mf, he always gets a dusk or dawn. That luck is too much and unfair.

Some guildies tried to do the same with 180 rare gs and guess what? Nothing of course. Nothing in the past 4 days. And that guildie keeps getting dusk/dawn.

I tried with a lot of rare gs but guess what?: n-o-t-h-i-n-g.

Yeah. He showed the recordings of his successes but not losses.

rng is rng. You could throw a million rares in and get nada, when it’s not your day.
Imagine if you had sold all those 900+ rare gs. You should be around half way to your dusk.
Plus, video or it didn’t happen, your friend is more likely lying to you.

His losses arent that big. He buys Rare inscriptions for to craft his rare gs. He spends every day for his rare inscriptions 120 gold only. And every time when he put the just crafted rare gs, he got dusk/dawn. And he’s not lying, he even showed it on Skype etc…

You can have runs with the mystic forge. A few months back dusk dropped twice in a four minute period for me. have had the same with other exotic swords from the forge where the same one dropped numerous times (unfortunately not a precursor).
Flip side. 1700 gold worth of greatsword’s (2500) with no precursor drop.

Well, sucks to be us then, suck it up or rage quit.

Ayrilana.1396:

…
Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

Or so they say.
(I’ve come prepared ;D)

#justRNGthings

Did you watch all the recordings? I don’t believe it.

RNG is RNG.

Just like I’ve read of cases where someone wins the big prize at the lottery twice (which has a 0,0000002% chance to win it in the first place), there are always extremes in every distribution, maybe you putting 900+ rares are in the middle of the curve (no idea), on one end is your friend that got 4 dusks, and on the other end of the curve there might be someone that has put 9000+ rares and no luck. I also once saw a video where someone put a LOT of rares into the MF, nothing for the whole video and 2 precursors in his last two forges. Random is that, random.

BTW, how many rares did he use to get the 4 dusks?… maybe he was incredible lucky to get 4 dusks, or maybe he put like 1000+ rares every day or so.

Wake up, sheeple! If you assign numeric value to the letters of your user name and add them up, then add the last four digits to that number and divide by 5, you’ll be able to see how lucky your account is.

Day 1: 1st try: 80 rares => Dawn + Dusk
Day 2: 210 rares: Dusk + Dusk + Dawn
Day 3: 180 rares: Dusk + Dawn
Day 4: 160 rates: Dawn + Dawn

Conclusion: RNG quite broken for 4 days for that dude + a lot of gold gained thanks to those precursors.

Are you sure he filmed every single attempted he did? He didn’t put any rares in the Mystic Forge at any time outside of those in the videos?

Can you link us to these videos? I’m guessing you’ll say he sent them to you directly, or they’re on a private guild site or something. If that’s the case can you ask him if he’d be willing to post them somewhere public so we can see?

King xiuras.3615:

He’s not lying, he showed it with pictures and recordings. When he put 180 rare gs in the mf, he always gets a dusk or dawn. That luck is too much and unfair.

Some guildies tried to do the same with 180 rare gs and guess what? Nothing of course. Nothing in the past 4 days. And that guildie keeps getting dusk/dawn.

I tried with a lot of rare gs but guess what?: n-o-t-h-i-n-g.

Assuming that your post is for real, do you not get what he’s doing? He just got a bunch of people to flush tons of GS down the drain. If he sent you links to recordings, post them here. Otherwise… well… its the interwebz, you know?

King xiuras.3615:

Day 1: 1st try: 80 rares => Dawn + Dusk
Day 2: 210 rares: Dusk + Dusk + Dawn
Day 3: 180 rares: Dusk + Dawn
Day 4: 160 rates: Dawn + Dawn

Conclusion: RNG quite broken for 4 days for that dude + a lot of gold gained thanks to those precursors.

I’d read up on RNG and probabilities. It’s well into the realm of possibility to get results like that although it’s very very rare.

How I see your argument that RNG must be broken is this:

Person A and Person B each flip a coin 10 times. Person A gets heads and tails exactly 5 times each. Person B gets tails all 10 times. This would be due to RNG but you’d credit it as a broken coin.

Ayrilana.1396:

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

JaNordy.6149:

Ayrilana.1396:

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

Nope. It’s been stated by Anet that all accounts are equal.

JaNordy.6149:

Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

Or it proved 100% that DR is broken and not working entirely as intended.

On another note, one of my IRL friends had mystic forging precursors for a hobby too. There was a time when he would say things like " Well, time for my daily Dawn before i log off". Guy had crazy luck. I have seen him pull 5 dawns/dusk in a single session of mystic forging while I was looking him over the shoulder irl.

Still, I don’t think it has anything to do with account luck or anything. In any Gaussian chart there are some people on the extreme ends. Whether that is a fair way to handle the single biggest endgame factor of the game is another discussion.

We’ve known not all accounts are equal since the beginning of the game. Remember some accounts being affected by wvw bonuses and some not?

In the BLTC forum there is a constructive discussion about RNG and possible substitution to make the curve more friendly towards the “kissed-by-bad-luck”, I suggest you go to take a look at it instead of just shouting at it here It is well known in game and out game that wherever there is any kind of RNG system, there will be a number of people to be super lucky and a number of people being super unlucky with an average staying in the half-way. Fair or not, the RNG is working as intended, we hate it, I hate it, but sadly, it’s how it works :/

Ayrilana.1396:

JaNordy.6149:

Ayrilana.1396:

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

Nope. It’s been stated by Anet that all accounts are equal.

Yeah, because everything ANet states is 100% correct.

Just like when they said there was nothing wrong with the drop rate or drop tables for Final Rest. Until magically it started dropping after a patch. After MONTHS of no one getting it as a drop. Of course, they only claimed to have increased the drop rate not that it was bugged.

Not that they neccessarily intend to lie, just sometimes they don’t know if something is broken.

Guhracie.3419:

Wake up, sheeple! If you assign numeric value to the letters of your user name and add them up, then add the last four digits to that number and divide by 5, you’ll be able to see how lucky your account is.

I KNEW IT

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Ayrilana.1396:

JaNordy.6149:

Ayrilana.1396:

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

Nope. It’s been stated by Anet that all accounts are equal.

Yeah, because everything ANet states is 100% correct.

Just like when they said there was nothing wrong with the drop rate or drop tables for Final Rest. Until magically it started dropping after a patch. After MONTHS of no one getting it as a drop. Of course, they only claimed to have increased the drop rate not that it was bugged.

Not that they neccessarily intend to lie, just sometimes they don’t know if something is broken.

So of course if there’s a possibility for them to be wrong then it must be so and that you cannot sum it up to people having a lack of understanding about RNG and probability.

You’re grinding for dusk and your friend who just got nine greatsword precursors couldn’t give you one? What a guy…

^ that’s a rather good point…at the very least sell it to you for his forging costs

Ayrilana.1396:

JaNordy.6149:

Ayrilana.1396:

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

Nope. It’s been stated by Anet that all accounts are equal.

Hahahahahaha, oh my these forums never change. Prove something beyond any doubt, people still say its false.

JaNordy.6149:

Hahahahahaha, oh my these forums never change. Prove something beyond any doubt, people still say its false.

So… where’s your proof?

John Smith.4610:

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

I may be alone in this, but I believe the OP. From my own experience in 2012, I was throwing bout 40 yellow gs into the forge and got Dusk. My buddy logs in about 2 minutes later and im telling him about my luck, and as Im tossing in the remaining 15 or so swords I get Dawn. So with a 5 minute period and almost back to back, I got both Dawn and Dusk. Its not a stretch for me to then think something similar could happen again to someone even luckief than I.

Sunreva.8714:

I may be alone in this, but I believe the OP. From my own experience in 2012, I was throwing bout 40 yellow gs into the forge and got Dusk. My buddy logs in about 2 minutes later and im telling him about my luck, and as Im tossing in the remaining 15 or so swords I get Dawn. So with a 5 minute period and almost back to back, I got both Dawn and Dusk. Its not a stretch for me to then think something similar could happen again to someone even luckief than I.

There are videos of this happening too… No matter how good your RNG algorithms are, you will never avoid these anomalies, ever. I don’t know about 9 precursors though, but 2 in one session isn’t unheard of.

Ayrilana.1396:

John Smith.4610:

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

I’m sorry, but quoting the resident Economist isn’t going to convince me that there might be something in their code somewhere that makes certain accounts luckier than others.

RNG is RNG and can make things look very funny to a certain people. I’ve personally seen too many cases of either ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ accounts to attribute it all to RNG in my mind.

This stuff does happen. Just google the Wi Flag if you don’t believe. Errors in code can exist that create ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ account behavior and can remain hidden in code for a long time.

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Ayrilana.1396:

John Smith.4610:

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

I’m sorry, but quoting the resident Economist isn’t going to convince me that there might be something in their code somewhere that makes certain accounts luckier than others.

RNG is RNG and can make things look very funny to a certain people. I’ve personally seen too many cases of either ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ accounts to attribute it all to RNG in my mind.

This stuff does happen. Just google the Wi Flag if you don’t believe. Errors in code can exist that create ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ account behavior and can remain hidden in code for a long time.

Yes but you cannot just assume that you are correct based on the very unlikely chance that there’s a bug in the system and especially when there’s a very credible and tested mathematical theory as to how this can happen.

Ayrilana.1396:

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Ayrilana.1396:

John Smith.4610:

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

I’m sorry, but quoting the resident Economist isn’t going to convince me that there might be something in their code somewhere that makes certain accounts luckier than others.

RNG is RNG and can make things look very funny to a certain people. I’ve personally seen too many cases of either ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ accounts to attribute it all to RNG in my mind.

This stuff does happen. Just google the Wi Flag if you don’t believe. Errors in code can exist that create ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ account behavior and can remain hidden in code for a long time.

Yes but you cannot just assume that you are correct based on the very unlikely chance that there’s a bug in the system and especially when there’s a very credible and tested mathematical theory as to how this can happen.

Tin foil hat aside, there will always be outliers, even in Vegas.

We have and have always needed/wanted a reliable method to obtain a pre, period.

King xiuras.3615:

His losses arent that big. He buys Rare inscriptions for to craft his rare gs. He spends every day for his rare inscriptions 120 gold only. And every time when he put the just crafted rare gs, he got dusk/dawn. And he’s not lying, he even showed it on Skype etc…

If I had 120g each day to waste, I’d just save them up. Bam, precursor in no time.

munkiman.3068:

Ayrilana.1396:

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Ayrilana.1396:

John Smith.4610:

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

I’m sorry, but quoting the resident Economist isn’t going to convince me that there might be something in their code somewhere that makes certain accounts luckier than others.

RNG is RNG and can make things look very funny to a certain people. I’ve personally seen too many cases of either ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ accounts to attribute it all to RNG in my mind.

This stuff does happen. Just google the Wi Flag if you don’t believe. Errors in code can exist that create ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ account behavior and can remain hidden in code for a long time.

Yes but you cannot just assume that you are correct based on the very unlikely chance that there’s a bug in the system and especially when there’s a very credible and tested mathematical theory as to how this can happen.

Tin foil hat aside, there will always be outliers, even in Vegas.

We have and have always needed/wanted a reliable method to obtain a pre, period.

Exactly. There will always be outliers. That doesn’t mean that it has to do with an error in the RNG system that favors specific accounts.

A few months back I made 12 legends in a week. The following week I made none.
RNG is RNG.

Even if it sounds ridiculous, I see no reason why he or his friend should be lying, unless you have ADHD.

I’d like to see an answer on OP’s post.

Ayrilana.1396:

munkiman.3068:

Ayrilana.1396:

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Ayrilana.1396:

John Smith.4610:

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

I’m sorry, but quoting the resident Economist isn’t going to convince me that there might be something in their code somewhere that makes certain accounts luckier than others.

RNG is RNG and can make things look very funny to a certain people. I’ve personally seen too many cases of either ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ accounts to attribute it all to RNG in my mind.

This stuff does happen. Just google the Wi Flag if you don’t believe. Errors in code can exist that create ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ account behavior and can remain hidden in code for a long time.

Yes but you cannot just assume that you are correct based on the very unlikely chance that there’s a bug in the system and especially when there’s a very credible and tested mathematical theory as to how this can happen.

Tin foil hat aside, there will always be outliers, even in Vegas.

We have and have always needed/wanted a reliable method to obtain a pre, period.

Exactly. There will always be outliers. That doesn’t mean that it has to do with an error in the RNG system that favors specific accounts.

I was agreeing with you really. However, it’s hard to forget the Final Rest assurance that it was in the drop table for months, now it almost drops like candy from SB… I mean people were searching all over for that darn thing.

munkiman.3068:

Ayrilana.1396:

munkiman.3068:

Ayrilana.1396:

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Ayrilana.1396:

John Smith.4610:

wwwes.1398:

John Smith.4610:

There isn’t such thing is some accounts getting stuck lucky. Yes there’s an RNG, yes it’s random and there are streaks and outliers and an even aggregate distribution.

Can you confirm whether it is an RNG that uses some sort of value from the user’s account or whether it is purely random/session based? I have a friend who swears that smack-talking an anet dev during a beta weekend pvp match doomed his account to poor rng for life.

Absolutely it does not use anything to do with a user.

I’m sorry, but quoting the resident Economist isn’t going to convince me that there might be something in their code somewhere that makes certain accounts luckier than others.

RNG is RNG and can make things look very funny to a certain people. I’ve personally seen too many cases of either ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ accounts to attribute it all to RNG in my mind.

This stuff does happen. Just google the Wi Flag if you don’t believe. Errors in code can exist that create ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’ account behavior and can remain hidden in code for a long time.

Yes but you cannot just assume that you are correct based on the very unlikely chance that there’s a bug in the system and especially when there’s a very credible and tested mathematical theory as to how this can happen.

Tin foil hat aside, there will always be outliers, even in Vegas.

We have and have always needed/wanted a reliable method to obtain a pre, period.

Exactly. There will always be outliers. That doesn’t mean that it has to do with an error in the RNG system that favors specific accounts.

I was agreeing with you really. However, it’s hard to forget the Final Rest assurance that it was in the drop table for months, now it almost drops like candy from SB… I mean people were searching all over for that darn thing.

Yeah, I remember that one thread that was going on. People thought it dropped from the Eye in Straits of Desolation.

I saw that you were. There have been rare instances where there have been issues with the drop rate such as with what you mentioned and salvage rate (ectos). My intent of posting in this thread was just that there’s a very small probability that it could be a bug and a large probability that it’s just the tendency of RNG to have outliers. Given that not many people understand RNG/probability, this just adds more to it likely not being due to some bug.

It’s similar to how people are quick to claim something is bugged when they just don’t know how to do it. It could very well be bugged but a lot of the time it’s because they don’t know what they’re doing or gave it one attempt, failed, and the assumed it was bugged.

This whole thread just makes me think that the one night I got The Lover out of the MF and then logged off and went to bed…. I should have stayed up and put more stuff in that thing!!!! AAAARRRRGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My one lucky shot is … gone… just .. gone.

JaNordy.6149:

Ayrilana.1396:

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

It’s not accounts. It’s DR. It’s been broken since the beginning. Try in few weeks, and you will see that who can farm for hours and who gets DR will change.

Essence Snow.3194:

We’ve known not all accounts are equal since the beginning of the game. Remember some accounts being affected by wvw bonuses and some not?

…
Yeah, i do. I guess you forgot why it was that way – it happened because some were on main servers, and some were on overflows (overflows didn’t get WvW bonuses then).

Astralporing.1957:

Essence Snow.3194:

We’ve known not all accounts are equal since the beginning of the game. Remember some accounts being affected by wvw bonuses and some not?

…
Yeah, i do. I guess you forgot why it was that way – it happened because some were on main servers, and some were on overflows (overflows didn’t get WvW bonuses then).

I don’t buy that at all, as I was affected by it and people in my parties were not…….ie we were in the same maps/instances. Not only that but it was persistent (did not change till fixed regardless of map) to certain accounts. If it were limited to overflow maps that would mean that it would only had effected bonuses when on an overflow map…and not while on a main. The only way it would be possible for that to be true is if my parties and I were unable to get on a main server during my 1st 1k+ hours of play, which spanned roughly 10 hours a day. Yeah…not a chance of that check getting cashed.

Your friend is just lucky. And you are not unlucky.

You only loss like 450-500 gold right? If it’s so easy to get legendary, it wont’ cost so much on the TP.

LoL troll.

Only thing I can think of is that the particular prefix of krait greatsword is bugged and rewarding the precursors at a much higher rate.

Black Frog.9274:

JaNordy.6149:

Hahahahahaha, oh my these forums never change. Prove something beyond any doubt, people still say its false.

So… where’s your proof?

My proof is 2 players including myself maze farming the prince rats(not even counting all other people that reported same thing). Transformed rats = 100% drop rate until DR kicks in. Farming for 3 hours straight. One person farmed on same thief the entire time. I had to stop anywhere between 10-20 mins and switch to another character. Otherwise Id get about 3-4 ToT bags from 20 mobs. Characters that I rarely log on to play, and those I use heavy. This proved there is a problem either with drop tables or DR that effects accounts differently. I can take a video next year but that Prince thing is gone till next year. Anet defense force never changes.