Guildie gets 4 dusks and 5 dawns in 4 days.

Guildie gets 4 dusks and 5 dawns in 4 days.

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Posted by: kingbread.6174

kingbread.6174

at this point, i no longer have ANY faith that anything in this game is dropping at the rate they are suppose to. nothing at all. And that belief is so prevalent among the player base and Anet will never be able to repair that

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Posted by: Sorean.5379

Sorean.5379

There is a video on youtube where the guys gets 2 kudzu back to back,iirc he gets the first one,open his storage and leaves the kudzu there,when he went back to MF to try again he got another Kudzu.

And looks like his storage is full of Dusks and Dawns

So yeah it is possible…

…for some lucky accounts.

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Posted by: uberkingkong.8041

uberkingkong.8041

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

You need to look at real math. Real statistics. Law of Large numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

You may get lucky, but you may also be unlucky.
I won 8 games solo que in pvp, a day later I was on a 15 or so losing streak.
All accounts are equal, you may just be playing during your lucky time, but sooner or later the other guy is going to catch up and even it out. Law of Large Numbers.

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Posted by: JaNordy.6149

JaNordy.6149

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

You need to look at real math. Real statistics. Law of Large numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

You may get lucky, but you may also be unlucky.
I won 8 games solo que in pvp, a day later I was on a 15 or so losing streak.
All accounts are equal, you may just be playing during your lucky time, but sooner or later the other guy is going to catch up and even it out. Law of Large Numbers.

Luck has nothing to do with a 100% drop rate.

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Posted by: azizul.8469

azizul.8469

video. else, it is just a hoax.

Cutie Phantasmer/Farinas [HAX] – CD Casual
Archeage = Farmville with PK

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Posted by: Oxidia.8103

Oxidia.8103

Jormag batle: 3 greens and a rare. Time 15 min.
Fire ele: 3 champion boxes and few rares. Time 20 seconds.

Gotta love rng.

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Posted by: VitaminK.2517

VitaminK.2517

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

Nope. It’s been stated by Anet that all accounts are equal.

They also stated that there are differences that shouldn’t be.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/first

Be careful with any kind of stochastic matters . In a previous post you stated about reading about RNG. Combinatorics and Permutation aren’t the only factors of RNG-based systems.

_______________________________________
Exciting news, everyone! Exciting news everywhere!

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Posted by: Hoaxintelligence.4628

Hoaxintelligence.4628

4 dusks and 5 dawns in 4 days without showing video’s or screenies is a bit lie.
If it realy happened your friend would take massive screenshots and post it here, cause that is something huge. Don’t buy the lies.

Sît[MII]Ultimate Dominator
U N D E R W O R L D
W v W-r o a m e r

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Posted by: CureForLiving.5360

CureForLiving.5360

Is the RNG bugged in the Mystic Forge?

No that’s how randomness works.
I’ve done a bit of googling to find a nice example for you, although given my lack of personal investment I just took the first article I could find (http://www.sixthform.info/maths/?p=132&c=1). If you google “more random by making it less random” you’ll probably be able to find a few better articles.
Basically it relates to how the itunes playists had to be made less random in order to make it seem more random. What I’m getting at is that, randomness does actually produce seemingly unrandom patterns.

Yeah. He showed the recordings of his successes but not losses.

So would that be confirmation bias or texas sharpshooter? Probably texas sharpshooter.

Nope. It’s been stated by Anet that all accounts are equal.

Or more accurately all accounts have access to the same RNG sets/generators. Although technically it’s NRNG but that’s another discussion.

Hahahahahaha, oh my these forums never change. Prove something beyond any doubt, people still say its false.

What proof? You’ve certainly not given any proof.

Yes but you cannot just assume that you are correct based on the very unlikely chance that there’s a bug in the system and especially when there’s a very credible and tested mathematical theory as to how this can happen.

I go with my own misanthropic version of occam’s razor myself.

Even if it sounds ridiculous, I see no reason why he or his friend should be lying, unless you have ADHD.

Not seeing the connection between ADHD and lying… unless you have ADHD and thus you’re lying… but are you lying about lying… or telling the truth by lying… or lying by telling the truth… I’m confused.

This whole thread just makes me think that the one night I got The Lover out of the MF and then logged off and went to bed…. I should have stayed up and put more stuff in that thing!!!! AAAARRRRGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My one lucky shot is … gone… just .. gone.

That’s how the slot machines get you :P

at this point, i no longer have ANY faith that anything in this game is dropping at the rate they are suppose to.

Which is a silly statement, since we’ve never been told (officially) the drop rates of anything in game. So the idea that there’s a ‘suppose to’ drop rate which isn’t being met seems odd.

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Posted by: Furesy.6935

Furesy.6935

Okay, since I am in the same guild as the OP and was online every time our guildie began his mystic forge quest I’ll post some screenies. I only have access to the ones he shared on FB, so I do not have all of them. But the ones I have are attached.

Attachments:

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Posted by: ZudetGambeous.9573

ZudetGambeous.9573

We all know that RNG has been broken since launch.

I mean whenever you loot a rare item, there is a 95% chance that the next rare item will be the same identical thing. Real “random”…

Anet just either doesn’t care or doesn’t have the resources to revamp the entire RNG system. It is what it is.

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Posted by: Dondarrion.2748

Dondarrion.2748

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

I would believe that if the RNG was pure random, but such is not the case with the RNG mechanism in GW2. Anet needs to look into their RNG algorithm because too often you find always the same accounts having luck with RNG over and over, while other outlier accounts never get anything.

Some account-specific factor/seed must be swaying the RNG in some players’ favour, to this end I’m not leaving anything to RNG in this game.

2+ years down the line, I’m only now done hoarding every kitten thing for my legendary and purchased the precursor off the TP and soon going to craft my 1st (and probably last) legendary.

Lord Sazed / Hasla the Huntress / Seaguard Hala
Seamarshal Belit / Initiate Xun Tsu / Mistwarden Roshone
Seafarer’s Rest | Northerner @ Dragon Season

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Posted by: Shadey Dancer.2907

Shadey Dancer.2907

Sure he is not trying to corner the market on Krait Greatswords with a cunningly laid plan for market domination? !

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Posted by: King xiuras.3615

King xiuras.3615

Okay, since I am in the same guild as the OP and was online every time our guildie began his mystic forge quest I’ll post some screenies. I only have access to the ones he shared on FB, so I do not have all of them. But the ones I have are attached.

He’s a guildie of mine and posted the pics of the other guildie. Here’s your proof everyone.

Khalar Bladestorm – Pugmaster of AoA – Dungeon Master – Event Comander of AoA

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Posted by: Algreg.3629

Algreg.3629

That luck is too much and unfair.

Bless your little heart, but I cannot spare you some very disenchanting news: Luck is always unfair, that is the very nature of luck.

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

Okay, since I am in the same guild as the OP and was online every time our guildie began his mystic forge quest I’ll post some screenies. I only have access to the ones he shared on FB, so I do not have all of them. But the ones I have are attached.

So does he always change his utility skill layout between forges?

Server: Devona’s Rest

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Posted by: Sarie.1630

Sarie.1630

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

“Let’s keep the whole world thinking that way, right Kids?”

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Posted by: Furesy.6935

Furesy.6935

Okay, since I am in the same guild as the OP and was online every time our guildie began his mystic forge quest I’ll post some screenies. I only have access to the ones he shared on FB, so I do not have all of them. But the ones I have are attached.

So does he always change his utility skill layout between forges?

What a dumb question lolz how should I know? These are screens from the last 3 days.

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Posted by: Morsus.5106

Morsus.5106

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

Accounts are created equal in the sense they have the same odds, some people are just born lucky or unlucky.

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

I would believe that if the RNG was pure random, but such is not the case with the RNG mechanism in GW2. Anet needs to look into their RNG algorithm because too often you find always the same accounts having luck with RNG over and over, while other outlier accounts never get anything.

Some account-specific factor/seed must be swaying the RNG in some players’ favour, to this end I’m not leaving anything to RNG in this game.

2+ years down the line, I’m only now done hoarding every kitten thing for my legendary and purchased the precursor off the TP and soon going to craft my 1st (and probably last) legendary.

Of course. When I see someone when multiple times at the lottery or off scratch it’s then it must be because of some flaw in the system that let’s them win. You are so quick to assume that there has to be a flaw in the system because you see the rare cases where someone is on the lower end of the curve as an outlier and has great results but you completely ignore the others. All of this can easy be explained with a basic understanding of probability.

So many people are under the false assumption that probability is equally spread across everyone. For example, if a coin has a 50% chance of landing on either side, these same people would assume that you’d get exactly 50% of each off any even number sample size. They completely ignore that it’s an average where there’s a range below and above that most people fall in and that there are the relatively few that can fall outside of that range as outliers.

(edited by Ayrilana.1396)

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

Nope. It’s been stated by Anet that all accounts are equal.

They also stated that there are differences that shouldn’t be.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/first

Be careful with any kind of stochastic matters . In a previous post you stated about reading about RNG. Combinatorics and Permutation aren’t the only factors of RNG-based systems.

Did you read that thread? They were talking about the outliers and how some people can be on the bad end of the curve. These are the ones that can spend over 2000G in the mystic forge and not get a precursor. Statistically it’s very possible for someone to end up in a situation such as this and be an outlier. The same can be said for someone who spends 100G and gets 3 precursors.

(edited by Ayrilana.1396)

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Posted by: Lady Deedra.3126

Lady Deedra.3126

Its completely possible. I’ve gotten 9 precursors in one day. Best day I had at the forge so far.

Skjold Pjod
I am “That” guy you have all heard about.
1,073 precursors forged and counting.

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Posted by: The Comfy Chair.7265

The Comfy Chair.7265

That’s RNG for you! I’ve had two precursors in two years. Both of them made my friends howl in annoyance due to how I acquired them:

Dusk: I smacked an Orr mob. No event, not a champion. Level 80 Risen. Dusk drop. Fun times! I immediately ran to the nearest safe-ish corner and proceeded to be stunned for a bit. It also happened January 2nd 2013, since I updated GW2Wiki at the time as random mobs weren’t a listed source!

Dawn: Got this the other day – I’ve never really been into the whole ‘mystic forge ALL the things!’ culture. But I decided ‘eh, I have a ton of t5 mats that I’d have more fun MFing than selling directly, plus I may get a precursor’. Note that I am going after Sunrise, so I thought I’d try crafting some greatswords for the mystic toilet. I made a grand total of 73 rare greatswords. I got a Dawn and 6 other exotics.

On the flipside, I’ve known people who have spend hundreds and hundreds of gold in the MF to no avail (it’s partly why I never really spend anything on the MF – I prefer the certainty of saving up – using t5 mats didn’t really feel like ‘spending’ to me haha).

(edited by The Comfy Chair.7265)

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Posted by: TheFool.4589

TheFool.4589

I have played since beta, and Im lucky to see a rare item. I don’t believe it’s all luck though It seems im so unlucky that you could give me a 99% chance of getting something good, and I’d still get the 1%.

I tried the forge a few times and always got worse items then I put in. All my guilders have legendaries and I can’t even get my pre. I have to agree with op. It’s rigged.

Some Players are lucky, other players are lucky they get to play.

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Posted by: Brother Grimm.5176

Brother Grimm.5176

Hahahahahaha, oh my these forums never change. Prove something beyond any doubt, people still say its false.

So… where’s your proof?

My proof is 2 players including myself maze farming the prince rats(not even counting all other people that reported same thing). Transformed rats = 100% drop rate until DR kicks in. Farming for 3 hours straight. One person farmed on same thief the entire time. I had to stop anywhere between 10-20 mins and switch to another character. Otherwise Id get about 3-4 ToT bags from 20 mobs. Characters that I rarely log on to play, and those I use heavy. This proved there is a problem either with drop tables or DR that effects accounts differently. I can take a video next year but that Prince thing is gone till next year. Anet defense force never changes.

The only proof this gives is that you don’t fully understand how DR works and are making HUGE assumptions based on how you THINK it should work. Where has it ever been established that DR is reset by changing characters?

Also, if I were coding a DR feature that I would NEVER want professional farmers to figure out, some RNG factor in HOW it works differently from one log in to the next (or some other factor that YOU nor I know) would be EXACTLY how I would code it to KEEP it “unknown”).

Baffling issues in this thread:

1) The number of players seriously buying the OPs Guildie claims (images and video can be cleverly edited).
2) The actual number of otherwise seemingly intelligent players that seem to actually believe some accounts are luckier than others.

We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances

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Posted by: Sariel V.7024

Sariel V.7024

This explains how I am getting lucky by selling rare greatswords.

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Posted by: Sariel V.7024

Sariel V.7024

We all know that RNG has been broken since launch.

I mean whenever you loot a rare item, there is a 95% chance that the next rare item will be the same identical thing. Real “random”…

Haven’t seen that.

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Posted by: Astralporing.1957

Astralporing.1957

RNG. Did you ask your friend exactly how many rates/exotics he threw in?

Also, all accounts are equal. One account is no luckier than another.

This is completely false. It was finally proven with Maze Balm farming rats. Mobs are guaranteed drop until DR kicks in. Guess what? Some people could farm for hours and get full drops all time, others including me couldnt go for more than 10 minutes before we got 0 drops. This 100% proved that not all accounts are equal.

You need to look at real math. Real statistics. Law of Large numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

You may get lucky, but you may also be unlucky.
I won 8 games solo que in pvp, a day later I was on a 15 or so losing streak.
All accounts are equal, you may just be playing during your lucky time, but sooner or later the other guy is going to catch up and even it out. Law of Large Numbers.

Luck has nothing to do with a 100% drop rate.

It actually does. This bug is account-unrelated. Meaning, while it is know to “attach” to different accounts for a time, what accounts will end up affected is random. As i said, if you have tried the same farm day after day after day, you’d have noticed that while DR bug does show up on some accounts, the accounts affected by it do change.

…also, some of it is dependant on what the character has been doing before the farm.

I would believe that if the RNG was pure random, but such is not the case with the RNG mechanism in GW2. Anet needs to look into their RNG algorithm because too often you find always the same accounts having luck with RNG over and over, while other outlier accounts never get anything.

Read up on gauss distribution. Outliers, both high (“lucky accounts”) and low (“unlucky accounts”) are a factor of RNG. With the number of people in the game, accounts that seem consistenly lucky and those that seem consistently unlucky are certain to exist. This doesn’t mean RNG works differently for them. Just as the fact that there was a man in Australia that managed to get hit by lightning 3 times (and survive) doesn’t mean that he was somehow special (or that someone up above didn’t like him).

Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November

(edited by Astralporing.1957)