Guild Wars 2

Valento.9852:

sorudo.9054:

oh no, let them crash, the joy of ppl whining about a price drop is like music through my ears.
the only ones who worry about a price drop are the ones who want to sell them, the ones who want to buy them are only seeing this as good news.

Actually, any player who wants to craft their legendaries in a more exciting and fun way see this as good news. Amassing gold is the ultimate boring stuff to acquire a precursor.

That’s true, and I say this as someone who does have enough gold – if I’m willing to nearly empty out my treasury :P – to buy precursors for greatsword and rifle.

Collection dont’ necessary mean cheap though. See karmic converter or treasure hunter achivement.

And some collection take forever like the ambrite weapon. That being said, I dont’ mind farming for the mystic ambrite weapon if it grant a precursor. It’s a fun way to farm at least.

Not sure when expansion is. The quickest I say 2 month. 1 month for convention, 1 month for beta test. It also might be 6+ month.

Yeah, must be careful not to propagate misleading information, and judging by Colin’s wording it’s clear he talks about current and new precursors/legendaries.

Neural.1824:

Tom Gore.4035:

The thing is, we have no idea how much work these collections are. By all we know, some of the current precursors could be faster to acquire by grinding gold and buying them off the TP.

Guarantee you 1000% that it will be worlds easier to just farm the gold and buy them, and you can be darn sure that the collections will include items that only come from doing things like “solo each champion in Orr” or some dumb gimmick like that.

Knowing ANet by now, you’re right about it. Yeah, I’m 101% sure they will come up with some crazy grindy kitten, because, you know…they NEED to make it a grind. So in the end, it will be easier to just farm for gold and buy it from the TP. I’m actually curious about those people who asked for the precursor scavanger hunt : how many of them (I’m pretty sure about 90% of them) will rage on the forums about the scavanger hunt after it will be ingame?

There is an interview by MMORPG with Colin and Mike that actually clarifies this whole issue. I’ll link the source and then quote the statement.

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/473/feature/9340/page/2

MMORPG: Let’s talk about precursors! My favorite topic! Is it going to be sort of like Luminescent Armor, where you do a bunch of little things and it all comes together?

CJ: I think the Luminescent Armor collections are a really great example of the type of thing we can do in the game now with the collection system. When we originally talked about adding precursors and the ability to work toward them (“A long, long time ago”), it was always with this in mind. We had a plan, we decided to do collections, and felt like collections were just a much better way to do what we wanted to do with precursors than what our original plan was.
The collection system allows you to go on these big, epic journeys that send you all across the game, and Heart of Thorns is going to build on top of it. You’ll use collections that are unlocked by spending mastery points, and those collections will send you all over the world – not just to the jungle, but to the existing game, as well. Think of it like a big, epic quest that you’re on all across the world to complete your collection. You’re touring our entire world and beating all kinds of exciting content as you go through it. When all of that’s completed, the precursor awaits you.

MMORPG: To clarify, it’s one precursor collection… per character? Per account?

CJ: All collections are account-based, so there’s one collection per precursor per account

MMORPG: Oh good, it was sounding like was one precursor, period, per account.

CJ: Yeah, that would be awful. (laughs)

People seem mad because we will have an alternative way of obtaining precursors geez… lol

Valento.9852:

People seem mad because we will have an alternative way of obtaining precursors geez… lol

It’s your assumption precursor will be cheaper. Which may or may not true.

And pretty much no one is flipping precursor.

Most of the popular precursor come from mystic forge. So unless tier5 price drop, the price probably won’t drop much.

Valento.9852:

People seem mad because we will have an alternative way of obtaining precursors geez… lol

Nuuu, mah markutz valuuuuz
:)

I’m curious how much of an “epic quest” it’s going to take for a precursor. Just knowing the option’s there is encouraging. And maybe they’ll be a legendary worth having! The rest I’ve seen so far are obnoxious pieces of cupcake, so I’ll cross my fingers about a new hammer.

I’ll echo some others’ concerns about some potentially RNG BS as a part of the collections, as I take note of the current collections.

Buttercup.5871:

laokoko.7403:

Valento.9852:

People seem mad because we will have an alternative way of obtaining precursors geez… lol

It’s your assumption precursor will be cheaper. Which may or may not true.

And pretty much no one is flipping precursor.

Most of the popular precursor come from mystic forge. So unless tier5 price drop, the price probably won’t drop much.

Wut. The demand will be decimated. Of course the price will drop.

If anything, this will simply tank t5 prices; the only reason they’re useful for anything is because of precursor forging. There being no alternative for that at the moment and all, which is finally about to change.

Your assumption is precursor will be easy to get. Which isn’t necessary true.

Have you take a look at the other collection yourself? Some of them are quite ridiculous.

Like some of the collection might actually require gold, and lots of it.

Tman.6349:

He’s saying that with this new way to obtain NEW PRES that they’re obviously introducig NEW LEGENEDARIES that can be made from the NEW PRES. The context is not a ‘catch-all’ in any way, shape, or form…

Maybe you should watch the stream for context? It was directed at someone actively watching the stream, at the post directly above mine

Buttercup.5871:

I’m not assuming anything will be easy. But I AM assuming most people would rather go through a month worth of quests than pay 1k gold for a weapon that you need to flush to get another weapon you actually want.

Casuals (and anyone who is not an idiot or glutten for punishment) will take the path of least resistance. If farming gold is going to easier and cheaper than the precursor collections, they’ll farm gold because it’s easier and cheaper therefore faster.

TPMN.1483:

It’s funny – all those private hoarders with 20+ of every precursors watch you profits fall.

Anybody with 20+ of all precursors will just shrug. If he was able to amass hundreds of thousands of gold worth of wealth within 30 months, losing a couple of thousand gold isnt really that big of a deal. He will still laugh in pity about your relative poverty.

I love announcement days because I get to grab a bag of popcorn and watch as all the self proclaimed “economists” tell us how the market really works.

Take this example of spark prices https://www.gw2tp.com/item/29167-spark

Note during the announcement
a. Sell orders go down by 15% From 1198g to 1008g
b. Buy orders go down by 33% From 1136g to 759g

Now observe the few days after the announcement the market has stabilized after the hype and prices are relatively “normal” at
a. Sell orders are back up to 1049g for a total of 12% decrease from pre announcement.
b. Buy orders are back up to 960g for a total of 15% decrease from pre announcement.

If you look the supply and demand are static throughout the entire time. I speculate that prices will remain like this until they show a preview of what the weapons will be. If the weapons are accepted by the community, get ready for another price crash.
If the weapons are not accepted by the community, get ready for a price spike.

One thing I can tell you for certain… T6 mats WILL go up in price no matter what.

Wanze.8410:

As far as I know, this only applies to the new precursors for the new legendaries, they didnt state, if the new precursors are also obtainable through forging and rng drops like the old ones, and if the old precursors will be obtainable through collections.
If thats not the case, I dont see how it will have much influence on existing pres and leggies.

So you’re saying current precursors will still have only RNG, while only the new precursors will be the only ones part of the collections? How is that in any way fair? People who want the old precursors will have no way of getting it in a guaranteed way without relying on RNG or paying for someone else’s luck.

The more logical and fair approach would be to combine both new and old precursors: all of them can be obtained through the Mastery system and all of them could be obtained through RNG. For people who don’t want to rely on RNG, or farming gold to pay for someone else’s luck, the Mastery system would be a guaranteed, albeit lengthy, alternative.

Rashy.4165:

How is that in any way fair?

Who said Anet had to be fair? If that was the case they would have never used RNG for anything.

Rashy.4165:

Wanze.8410:

As far as I know, this only applies to the new precursors for the new legendaries, they didnt state, if the new precursors are also obtainable through forging and rng drops like the old ones, and if the old precursors will be obtainable through collections.
If thats not the case, I dont see how it will have much influence on existing pres and leggies.

So you’re saying current precursors will still have only RNG, while only the new precursors will be the only ones part of the collections? How is that in any way fair? People who want the old precursors will have no way of getting it in a guaranteed way without relying on RNG or paying for someone else’s luck.

The more logical and fair approach would be to combine both new and old precursors: all of them can be obtained through the Mastery system and all of them could be obtained through RNG. For people who don’t want to rely on RNG, or farming gold to pay for someone else’s luck, the Mastery system would be a guaranteed, albeit lengthy, alternative.

I am not saying anything on how precursor acquisition will work in HoT, I only expressed how I interpreted what Colin said.

Rashy.4165:

So you’re saying current precursors will still have only RNG, while only the new precursors will be the only ones part of the collections?

my interpretation is the old precursor will be part of the collections too.

quite honestly everyone is just guessing and interpretation on their own.

About the tier 6 price. If tier 5 price really crashed(like some other people assumed), you can promote tier5 to tier6.

In fact you can already promote tier5 to tier6 to make good profit right now. So I doubt tier5 is going to crash or tier6 is getting much more expensive.

Either way, there’s just people that don’t want to believe that people will have a different way of acquiring existing precursors, because it means their profits would be slightly lower. Or that they recently bought a precursor and don’t want other people to obtain it in a different way.

Yeah, I somehow see the collections turning into how fun it is to get the karmatic infuser.
And Chances are, once people find the rare item needed, they’ll buy them up and resell higher.

Well according to the interviews, the collections are actually being influenced by the lumi armor collections, which don’t involve rare tradeable items.

Lazaar.9123:

Well according to the interviews, the collections are actually being influenced by the lumi armor collections, which don’t involve rare tradeable items.

I don’t know bout you, but I did make a bit of profit with the rare skulls for the last two collections…

Serophous.9085:

Lazaar.9123:

Well according to the interviews, the collections are actually being influenced by the lumi armor collections, which don’t involve rare tradeable items.

I don’t know bout you, but I did make a bit of profit with the rare skulls for the last two collections…

And that has relevance how? That still only cost a single player 40-50 silver, which is pretty much nothing.

Lazaar.9123:

Serophous.9085:

Lazaar.9123:

Well according to the interviews, the collections are actually being influenced by the lumi armor collections, which don’t involve rare tradeable items.

I don’t know bout you, but I did make a bit of profit with the rare skulls for the last two collections…

And that has relevance how? That still only cost a single player 40-50 silver, which is pretty much nothing.

Well, I can’t answer fully, just on speculation. But if there is an item like that, not easily farmable, the same trend that is going on with precursors before this announcement will start to happen. Its all going to depend what items are needed. But people playing the to will try to find a way

Serophous.9085:

Lazaar.9123:

Serophous.9085:

Lazaar.9123:

Well according to the interviews, the collections are actually being influenced by the lumi armor collections, which don’t involve rare tradeable items.

I don’t know bout you, but I did make a bit of profit with the rare skulls for the last two collections…

And that has relevance how? That still only cost a single player 40-50 silver, which is pretty much nothing.

Well, I can’t answer fully, just on speculation. But if there is an item like that, not easily farmable, the same trend that is going on with precursors before this announcement will start to happen. Its all going to depend what items are needed. But people playing the to will try to find a way

Except the entire point of them putting in a different way to get precursors is to make it so you don’t need to farm gold to get it, so that is very, very doubtful. Mawdrey is another great example, it required going through multiple different PvE content. Sure you could buy your way to make it go faster, but you could wait it out just as easily.

given we have 0 info on the precursor collections, HoT’s release date and how difficult they may be to complete, it’s a bad idea to jump to conclusions

Until I see precursors drop back down to just after Karka event levels, I see no problem here. Triple digits are still triple digits.

I Rubra Caelum I.1530:

Neural.1824:

Tom Gore.4035:

The thing is, we have no idea how much work these collections are. By all we know, some of the current precursors could be faster to acquire by grinding gold and buying them off the TP.

Guarantee you 1000% that it will be worlds easier to just farm the gold and buy them, and you can be darn sure that the collections will include items that only come from doing things like “solo each champion in Orr” or some dumb gimmick like that.

Knowing ANet by now, you’re right about it. Yeah, I’m 101% sure they will come up with some crazy grindy kitten, because, you know…they NEED to make it a grind. So in the end, it will be easier to just farm for gold and buy it from the TP. I’m actually curious about those people who asked for the precursor scavanger hunt : how many of them (I’m pretty sure about 90% of them) will rage on the forums about the scavanger hunt after it will be ingame?

Well if the Luminescent set is any indication, completing the collection will require both some RNG luck and some grinding. I would still assume it will be varied enough not to feel like a grind, even if it would take a long time. Varied because for the pre hunt they don’t have to concentrate the collection on (mostly) one zone, like they did with the Luminescent collections.

Buttercup.5871:

The text of the PAX speech is in this thread. And people watched it. Anyone that doesn’t want to read/watch it, or thinks that Colin would have a crowd shout “Precursors! What you say? PRECURSORS!” only to say “Well, you ain’t getting them for the ones we have now, suckers!” is out of his mind.

We left the realm of speculation. We will get precursors – old and new – through achievements.

Well, whats more interesting though, is, if the new precursors are also available from rng drops and the forge.
I already put 6k rare inscriptions into my bank and i might buy more, if t5 mats go down even further.
If they are forgeable, we might see the old precursors drop quite a bit right after release due to added supply from people trying to forge the new ones.

And while prices for t5-6 mats are down, it might also make sense to hoard your champ bags until after release.

My guess is that gold grinding, buying from the TP, or praying at the Mystic Toilet will still be the most efficient way to acquire the precursors. We all know Anet LOVES brutally frustrating RNG so that we’ll open our wallets. You can guarantee that the precursor collections will be full of rare drops much as the Treasure Hunter collection currently is. The sum cost of these rare drops will, in turn, most likely cost more than the actual pre itself on the TP.

Am I hoping for a more fun and skill-based approach? Hell yeah. But this is Anet we’re talking about. RNG rules the day with them. Keep hoarding your gold. Oh but it would be nice to actually buy some of the shiny things in the cash shop rather than hoarding my gold. Let’s hope Anet sees reason and makes the mechanic fun and challenging rather than full of RNG frustrations.

I suspect the true “drop” in price will be when we have a guaranteed release date. For the people who think prices won’t go down by that much have to take in consideration..once most people have a legendary, they won’t need another one of that type.

Everything is kind of related. Even if demand for inscriptions fall, it can still be used to craft rare to salvage for ecto. And if demand for inscription falls it means precursor is cheap, so there’s more need for ecto.

Precusor easy means t6 and t5 price go up for gift of fortune. People stop forging means t5 price drop which also lead to t6 to drop because of promotion. Which kind of contradict to the previous.

The collection hard to do means precursor price won’t drop too much.

You also probably need to spend mastery point to start the collection etc. I wonder if it is possible to start collecting every precursor from the ghetto.

Legendary gear is pretty much the economy in GW2. So it will be driving force behind everything.

@laokoko depends on what quantity of T6’s u can get from the new maps either by random killing or doing events, even by story. That’s also a factor. Everyone will be in the new maps.

Not saying you are wrong…but there are a lot of unknowns at this point. Good part is u know for a fact u will get a guaranteed precursor. That eliminates the “gambling” factor out of the way for all players. That also means ppl can be happy grinding/gathering the mats in time knowing they won’t have to gamble for the legendary.

Well, I have a guildie who crafted all of them so current precursors are useless for him.

Valento.9852:

Well, I have a guildie who crafted all of them so current precursors are useless for him.

They are not useless until he forged on leggie twice to become a Twice Told Legend.

Wanze.8410:

Valento.9852:

Well, I have a guildie who crafted all of them so current precursors are useless for him.

They are not useless until he forged on leggie twice to become a Twice Told Legend.

What if I told you he also has that title? duuun duun duuuuunnn…

He’s not normal. ._.

I’m more concerned about rare prices slipping if people put playing the Mystic Slots on hold.

Buttercup.5871:

Perhaps Wanze. But I personally think that t5 mats will be used to forge t6 mats and that the demand for inscriptions will fall. Anyway, I stopped the whole speculating thing a while ago as I have nearly every legendary, dye and skin I want.

My only concern is that the game heals from having precursors as a driving force behind everything. It was really unhealthy.

Well, i forged more 100k rare weapons (mostly for sale) since wintersday patch and my profit per t5 fine mat used was between 50c-1s, which is a little higher than the profit per t5 mat used when promoting to t6 and I dont have to spend skillpoints.

Some might argue that they have enough skillpoints anyways, so i will put these numbers a little into relation. I bought over 1.5 million rare t5 mats to craft 100k weapons. In order to promote those 1.5 million t5 mats into t6, i would have used 15k skillpoints. So even if I would get 1-2s profit per t5 mat that i promote, I am fairly limited in my quantity per day. If I get 15 skillpoints per day, it only allows me to promote 1500 t5 mats, compared to my mileage with crafting rares, where i used more than 35k t5 mats per day.

So i dont think that promoting t5 mats will ever generate more demand than crafting/forging rares for precursors.

I also usually forged every weapon that didnt sell on the the tp within 5-7 days and got 5 pres since christmas (1 zap – made bolt – both greatswords and spark twice, those 4 i sold) at an average cost of a little under 500g.

And I will keep forging, unless pre prices drop another 30% more compared to crafting values of rare weapons.

Valento.9852:

Wanze.8410:

Valento.9852:

Well, I have a guildie who crafted all of them so current precursors are useless for him.

They are not useless until he forged on leggie twice to become a Twice Told Legend.

What if I told you he also has that title? duuun duun duuuuunnn…

He’s not normal. ._.

Then precursors still wouldnt be useless to him because he can sell them on the tp.

Wanze.8410:

Valento.9852:

Wanze.8410:

Valento.9852:

Well, I have a guildie who crafted all of them so current precursors are useless for him.

They are not useless until he forged on leggie twice to become a Twice Told Legend.

What if I told you he also has that title? duuun duun duuuuunnn…

He’s not normal. ._.

Then precursors still wouldnt be useless to him because he can sell them on the tp.

I know, but he won’t be forging for precursors. If it drops he sells, if not, meh. No more running after them.

Wanze.8410:

Well, i forged more 100k rare weapons (mostly for sale) since wintersday patch and my profit per t5 fine mat used was between 50c-1s, which is a little higher than the profit per t5 mat used when promoting to t6 and I dont have to spend skillpoints.

ya, I think you are under the assumption people are willing to sit in the town all day just crafting rares and putting it on the trading post or forging. Not everyone want to spend their time that way.

It’s efficient money, but not everyone willing to just sit in town doing that. And obviously not many people willing to do that. That’s why it is profitable.

I think it would be a bad move if they introduced ONLY new collection progress. I’d actually expect that if you’ve earned at least a few of the rare collections, that would be progress toward the precursor mastery system. Invalidating previous achievements by adding entirely new ones, would likely make people upset in general.

For example, i wouldn’t be at all surprised if Jormag Defense Guide, counted toward part of Tooth of Frostfang master collection, or something similar.

laokoko.7403:

Wanze.8410:

Well, i forged more 100k rare weapons (mostly for sale) since wintersday patch and my profit per t5 fine mat used was between 50c-1s, which is a little higher than the profit per t5 mat used when promoting to t6 and I dont have to spend skillpoints.

ya, I think you are under the assumption people are willing to sit in the town all day just crafting rares and putting it on the trading post or forging. Not everyone want to spend their time that way.

It’s efficient money, but not everyone willing to just sit in town doing that. And obviously not many people willing to do that. That’s why it is profitable.

Most people arent even willing to spend their daily skillpoints on promoting either.

I just presented an arguement why i think that t5 mats will be more closely tied to the prices of precursors rather then the cost of t6 mats, which Buttercup mentioned.

Buttercup.5871:

With precursors – old and new (see above) becoming available through achievements, I think t5 prices will indeed be determined by the t6 prices. But you’re right, I should have added they are also tied to the glob price. If the glob price doesn’t fall, the inscription prices won’t fall, either. If the glob price stays the same, inscription prices will only tank a bit, about 20 percent give or take. If the glob price rises, naturally, inscription prices will rise similarly.

So a lot will depend on the glob price. And the glob price is determined by so many factors – including drops generated in Hot – that its future price is pretty much impossible to predict at this point. It would be careless to assume it will rise with more legendaries being crafted (requiring globs + dust, whereas dust price—> glob price) as there are an incredible range of other factors which may push the glob price down again.

Alot has to happen until the glob price has any impact on t5 mat prices.

Basically, the average price of the most expensive subcategory of rare weapons (usually gs, dagger, staff, sword) must fall to a value of less than 90% of that of ectos.
That hasnt happened yet and in my opinion never will because the prices of rare weapons from undesired precursors (underwater weapons), rare armor and trinkets will bring the price of ectos down before this will happen.

I look forward to the bounceback these prices will suffer once the expansion is out and people realize the “crafting” will be incredibly difficult and a huge time sink.

If you think the process of obtaining new precursors will be this magical easy skill based system you’re wrong.

Harper.4173:

I look forward to the bounceback these prices will suffer once the expansion is out and people realize the “crafting” will be incredibly difficult and a huge time sink.

If you think the process of obtaining new precursors will be this magical easy skill based system you’re wrong.

No one is expecting that since the core of collections revolves around collecting ITEMS which may be expensive, but the progression feel is much more rewarding. So yeah, most players will trash TP once precursor collections become available.

Buttercup.5871:

Wanze.8410:

Buttercup.5871:

With precursors – old and new (see above) becoming available through achievements, I think t5 prices will indeed be determined by the t6 prices. But you’re right, I should have added they are also tied to the glob price. If the glob price doesn’t fall, the inscription prices won’t fall, either. If the glob price stays the same, inscription prices will only tank a bit, about 20 percent give or take. If the glob price rises, naturally, inscription prices will rise similarly.

So a lot will depend on the glob price. And the glob price is determined by so many factors – including drops generated in Hot – that its future price is pretty much impossible to predict at this point. It would be careless to assume it will rise with more legendaries being crafted (requiring globs + dust, whereas dust price—> glob price) as there are an incredible range of other factors which may push the glob price down again.

Alot has to happen until the glob price has any impact on t5 mat prices.

Basically, the average price of the most expensive subcategory of rare weapons (usually gs, dagger, staff, sword) must fall to a value of less than 90% of that of ectos.
That hasnt happened yet and in my opinion never will because the prices of rare weapons from undesired precursors (underwater weapons), rare armor and trinkets will bring the price of ectos down before this will happen.

Except when every crafted rare becomes glob fodder – as the need to forge precursors is as good as gone. Exceptionally, particular precursors will still be forged as a result of, for example, bugged content preventing precursor quest completion or very specific group content that, in practice, requires membership of a large/succesful guild. Other than that, I see no need for people to buy one anymore.

A lot of people appear hesitant to step out of the precursor boxed thinking; I do think though that once precursor demand has been decimated, a lot of “givens” in the current economy will change quite radically. Will be interesting to see!

The need for forging precursors wont be gone, especially, if the new ones are forgeable as well

Edit:

And even in a scenario, where all t5 mats are used to craft rare weapons in order to salvage globs because its more profitable than forging pres, how long do you think, the price of globs will stay that profitable?

Sell sell sell before the market crazzzzh ;D

http://www.zam.com/story.html?story=35650&storypage=2

We now have proper confirmation that the collections will be for the new and old precursors. It also seems there’s a chance the new precursors will not be obtainable through the mystic forge or loot. (I hope so, it should have been like this from the very beginning)

I have no doubt these new precursor collection achievements will require extremely rare drops from broken events, like a number of the current collection achievements. I’m looking at you Sam.

Actually it’s been stated in multiple interviews that they are inspired off the lumi armor collections and mawdrey, both of which didn’t require items like that. The collected items will likely be new account-bound ones.