I have been playing this game from headstart (and beta before that.) I have at least 2K hours (probably more) in-game. I have 2 80’s and 6 other characters ranging in level from 20-65. I could have had more 80’s, but I was having way too much fun with the ones I already have. I am maxed in most of the crafting (still need huntsman and tailoring) and I have played every profession at least once. I think my experience in game is pretty well rounded.
I have formed an opinion about GW2 RNG and for better or worse, here it is:
Many people still have the idea that the more you try, the more likely it is that you will get it. In reality, it is not like that at all. If you have a 1 in 10,000 chance to get a particular item, it means that the chances of getting that particular item is the same on the 10,000th time you try as it they are on the first. This is why your friend can get a precursor in one try while you have to spend untold amounts of gold in the MF and still not get it.
The main problem is that the chances need to be tweaked. Not enough to ruin the already inflated economy, but enough so that there is a reasonable chance.
I would be much more willing to part with some of my gold if I knew the exact odds.
Right now, I might as well be playing Powerball (actual odds from their website are 1 in 175,223,510.) Unfortunately, it cost more than a couple bucks (gold) to play the precursor lottery.
In my case, getting a precursor is not something I am actively pursuing. If I have a couple extra things, I’ll toss them into the MF and see what happens, but there are way too many other pursuits that interest me more.
Of course every time you try again you have a 1/10,000 chance. However if you do it twice you changes of getting it are 2 times 1/10.000 because you did it twice, not because the second time there is a bigger change but because you did it 2 times. That is just math.
Anyway, the point is also.. is it fun to grind gold and get it, is it fun the toss things into the MF? Or is it more fun to activly hunt down the item without first grinding.
Of course you can get money while doing stuff you like but for many people hunting down those items is what they like. That is there end-content.
i think this is the biggest flaw with dev strategy, they build their reward systems around the economy, and not the gameplay. They expect people to get gold to buy what they want, which leads to gold hunting being the main game mode. Combine this with the most profitable tasks are going to be the easy/repetitive ones. It made sense in theory, make it so all tasks are equally rewarding and make it so few things are directly huntable, this way people trade get gold and buy what they want doing anything. However since it boils down to gold, whatever gets the most gold is the best answer, hence people work on whatever is current best gold farm, and have to buy what they want. essentially work for a paycheck, buy your item. Not really that adventurous.
They didnt realize that a great many people playing rpg/adventure games like to hunt/aim for/obtain items/skills etc.
Well they need to sell gems and you can buy gold for gems so this is also a very likely reason to make the game that way.