Guild Wars 2

37 runs, still need 2 coats, awsome! =3

Thanathos.2063:

I love how people start to complain 24 hours after the patch.
How about 1 try per day? You’ll most likely have your two missing boxes within a month and it’s not that frustrating if you do other things in between, too.

Are you dumb? Do you realize how fast this map will die once everyone gets their luminescent gear/achievements? If we do it once a month we’ll never get a coat box due to there being not enough people by the time 3 weeks comes around.

im pretty sure (Hero of the Wastes) buff does help.

just tried 5 times tonight with no luck, just when i stayed in a map with (Hero of the Wastes) buff i got the Coat box.

I’ve only done the event twice. First time I got the box. Second time nothing. And I would like to add I had the box as the bonuse for killing it the first time.

Hector.1408:

OH yea. I’ve done 70+ vine runes….NO COAT!!!!! GRIND WARS 3. ANYONE????!!!!!!

Then you have the singular worst luck ever. I’ve heard its a 50/50 chance. Do you have bad luck at heads or tails?

BrotherBelial.3094:

I’ve heard its a 50/50 chance.

It’s definitely not. People get that wrong all the times: Just because there are two results (get it or don’t get it) doesn’t mean that it’s 50/50 (because therefore it has to be a laplace experiment: every result has the same chance. that’s not the case here).

I’d guess the chance is between 5 and 15 percent. No chest at 70 tries sounds quite rare, anyways.

BrotherBelial.3094:

Hector.1408:

OH yea. I’ve done 70+ vine runes….NO COAT!!!!! GRIND WARS 3. ANYONE????!!!!!!

Then you have the singular worst luck ever. I’ve heard its a 50/50 chance. Do you have bad luck at heads or tails?

50% chance and 70 runs with nothing?

punch in calculator the probability is something like 0.00000000000000000000008%.

with 22 zero.

And gw2 just closed to update before we could reach chest, lovely..

laokoko.7403:

50% chance and 70 runs with nothing?

punch in calculator the probability is something like 0.00000000000000000000008%.

with 22 zero.

2*(1/2)^70=1.6940659e-21 or 0.0000000000000000000016940659…

Seems likely.

Did you guys complete the story before you started farming the final event like there is no tomorrow? I completed all achi’s before I did the final event and got 3 boxes out of 3 attempts. Might be RNG, might not be.

a friend got 5 boxes in a row. he has a total of 6 boxes now.

I got nothing.

something seriously is not right

a friend got 5 coat boxes in a row. He has 6 boxes now.

I got nothing.

something is seriously wrong here

1 for 4 here. Love seeing Hector troll every thread.

IvanGL.4271:

15 times and no Coat… this is not High Drop…

Sample size is a bit small to make assumptions of drop rates.

Hector.1408:

70+ times. ZERO coat

Slightly better sample size, but I still feel that we might need in the hundreds (ideally a thousand or two) samples

Traveller.7496:

Maybe I should just play something without luck as a factor.

Which basically means not playing a single loot based game (which means most of the MMOs on the market would be off of the table).

Junkpile.7439:

mtpelion.4562:

Junkpile.7439:

Thanathos.2063:

RNG is RNG.

Or item isn’t even some accounts loot table.

Accounts do not have loot tables.

How can you know?

It would literally means someone at ANet coded unique account loot tables. Programmers are a proudly lazy lot (Keep It Simply Silly and all), so I doubt someone would go through all that effort. Extra effort for no reasonable benefit other than the create a verbose system that can only introduce additional problems.

BrotherBelial.3094:

Hector.1408:

OH yea. I’ve done 70+ vine runes….NO COAT!!!!! GRIND WARS 3. ANYONE????!!!!!!

Then you have the singular worst luck ever. I’ve heard its a 50/50 chance. Do you have bad luck at heads or tails?

Look at Hector’s post history.
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Carapace-Coat-RNG/4698910
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/lwd/Game-is-broken/4698913
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/lwd/Suggestion-Carapace-Coat-Box/4698921
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/lwd/carapace-coat-box-1/4698929
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/lwd/So-are-the-coat-boxes-my-new-Teq/4698931
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/4698938
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/lwd/So-are-the-coat-boxes-my-new-Teq/4698965
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Carapace-Coat-RNG/4698969

Please note each of these posts essentially the same and riddled with liberal capitalization and exclamation. I don’t think we should be given too much credence to what he says.

NTDK.4897:

a friend got 5 boxes in a row. he has a total of 6 boxes now.

I got nothing.

something seriously is not right

Have I told you about human’s and their monkey brains? No. Well let’s just say that there wasn’t much need for monkey brains to ever objectively track and measure probability. In fact to the contrary, monkey brains tend to err on the side of caution and is more likely to see pattern where there are none.

i make with diferent mobs and 0 coat boxes…

Why is it so many people in todays society expect to be GIVEN things.
You paid for the game and the playable content, not all the items under the sun.
Play the game and stop thinking about it and those items will drop.
HAVE FUN!

Hector.1408:

3 days straight 70+ runs and NOTHING. QQ

is it possible ? 70+ succesefully completed events in 72 hours ? don’t lie to us

NTDK.4897:

a friend got 5 boxes in a row. he has a total of 6 boxes now.

I got nothing.

something seriously is not right

All is working as intended, your friend is killing the chances for other people by “setting the average”.

Seems like no one understands how RnG and averages work?
Gezus.

Finally found a box. 21 attemps, 1 fail, 1 box. I am so happy. One more to go.

NNNNN
NNNNN
NNFNN
NNNNN
B

I do think this system is broken. With RNG you have indeed an average, but you also have people at the high end of the spectrum and people on the low end (also explained by a dev).
The problem is, people at the low end could never get a drop, even if that is a verry low chance. Still if there’s a chance, how slim that may be, it’s not working, since people generally wan’t an achievable goal.

Just my two cents.

Account based loot tables. Lol. You guys need to replace your tinfoil hats.

Dhalis.8297:

I do think this system is broken. With RNG you have indeed an average, but you also have people at the high end of the spectrum and people on the low end (also explained by a dev).
The problem is, people at the low end could never get a drop, even if that is a verry low chance. Still if there’s a chance, how slim that may be, it’s not working, since people generally wan’t an achievable goal.

Just my two cents.

It wouldn’t be random if some people would not get 10 boxes while others get 0 with the same number of tries.

Anyhow, they might very well add the lootbox to the Camp Resolve vendor after a few weeks. Just wait and see if you don’t want to take your chances with RNG.

Hector.1408:

70+ times. ZERO coat

You’re kittenting me, right? You’re saying you’re actually defeated the VineWrath 70+ times already? And are not talking about how many chests you’ve opened there?

This morning 4 times and 0 boxes…

This morning 4 times and 0 boxes… Smell like a bug…

Horus Nightlight.1276:

ANet.. REALLY? Some of us who actually like the Bioluminescent Armor worked hard farming over 8k bandit crests over Christmas and New Year hoping to get the full set and you unleash the unspeakable thing called RNG on us? This really is the pits.

And you are surprised why? I thought that outcome was entirely predictable specifically because I read repeatedly how people were saving up their crests so they could outright buy all remaining carapace armor pieces as soon as the update went life.

Mind, I’m not at all happy about it, especially when reading about people who’ve done dozens of Vinewrath events without getting even one additional coat box, but I absolutely expected either RNG or a price of at least 10k crests per chest piece.

Gudy.3607:

Mind, I’m not at all happy about it, especially when reading about people who’ve done dozens of Vinewrath events without getting even one additional coat box, but I absolutely expected either RNG or a price of at least 10k crests per chest piece.

I would much prefer a 10k crests cost per chest piece than the RNG. That way, at least :
1. I can plan my gameplay accordingly
2. I can estimate how long more to get it and something to look forward to at the end rather than get disappointed every time opening the chest.

I’m not suggesting that ANet remove RNG from the end chest. It is good that people have something to look forward to from the chest. But an alternative means should be given to players who get disappointed by the RNG – either make it saleable by vendors or make it saleable on TP rather than account bound. I just want the chest pieces.

The problem is that outside the coat box and the few achievements there’s not really much reason to do Vinewrath. AFAIK, there’s no rare, exciting drops in that chest to look out for, or even a mini. This would’ve been the perfect spot to put those Mordrem weapon skins in to keep replayability high, but no, gemstore. Few bandit chests in same spot, but other than that, the same old 2 blues and 1 green from that box.

10 runs only 1 box so far… I just need 1 more… do I need to start killing kittens or something?

~10 kills, maybe a bit more, still no coat. I’ll keep doing it since its rewards are not overly bad and I kinda like how this fight is (I was a big fan of the Marionette fight). I think I’ll get them at some point, they seem to drop at a decent-ish rate – rare but not too rare.

Traveller.7496:

The problem is that outside the coat box and the few achievements there’s not really much reason to do Vinewrath. AFAIK, there’s no rare, exciting drops in that chest to look out for, or even a mini. This would’ve been the perfect spot to put those Mordrem weapon skins in to keep replayability high, but no, gemstore. Few bandit chests in same spot, but other than that, the same old 2 blues and 1 green from that box.

I’m not 100% but I’ve seen people link Endless Mordrem Teragriff Tonic after the looting of Vinewrath’s chest. So I’m guessing it drops from there. But the prices on it are dropping fast on the TP it seems so it won’t matter soon.

3 kills now. And out of the three kills I’ve had 2 boxes.

RNG is RNG stop seeing conspiracy theory behind it. My friend got 3 coat boxes in 2 runs. My other friend who’s doing silverwaste non stop since path only got 1. Its always like that with RNG. I used to do a lot of fractals and i never got 1 single ascended chest, neither weapons nor armor. I got 5 of them in the last 2 weeks.

RNG is RNG.

RNG is RNG. I’ve had terrible luck with everything else but I’ve gotten 4 Coat boxes in maybe 7 Vinewrath runs. I like to think Hero of the Wastes improves the drop chance since I had the buff for each run but the first, but Magic Find only affects loot drops and PvP loot.

So rng means that some people have better chance get box? If they would use some mechanical lottery machine i would say rng is rng. Pseudo rng is just big hoax.

Junkpile.7439:

So rng means that some people have better chance get box? If they would use some mechanical lottery machine i would say rng is rng. Pseudo rng is just big hoax.

RNG means that all people have the same chance of getting a box. Because it is a chance though, some people will get it more often than others. It isn’t a result of anything other than distribution.

If you drop 100 pins on the floor, are the pins that wind up touching another pin more lucky than the pins that don’t touch another pin?

Exo.2965:

Hector.1408:

3 days straight 70+ runs and NOTHING. QQ

is it possible ? 70+ succesefully completed events in 72 hours ? don’t lie to us

Although this sounds a little far fetched I do think he could be close, with good instance hopping you can get 3 or 4 VW kills an hour. I think he is over estimating a bit but even 20 runs without a coat box would be pretty horrible.

Took me 13 for the first and I still don’t have my second.

Cherokeewill.7504:

I think Bosses should be harder and have tokens like dungeons with loot vendors. Make each fight as epic or more so than Tequatl, with chest for that RNG bonus drop of Tequatl’s Hoard/Mini/etc., but award tokens for the event; 1 for fail and 3 for win. Then, if you haven’t been lucky enough, you can cash in your tokens for one of the unique drops after running the event so often.

It’s luck and progression all in one.

This is neat in theory, but before Teq got nerfed, no one did him because he was too hard and too much work was necessary to get people to listen to you to get it done. Only TTS did him then (pre-nerf) and only TTS does the triple headed wurm now.

Just give us a second way to get the boxes. After you do the boss enough times you should just get a coat-requisition-order and be able to buy them with crests for example. This is seriously ruining my fun.

Edit: I’m 0/12 so far.

RNG smiled on me this once, I had all my coat boxes in three wins, then got another. None since. I think I’ve done the fight five or six times, one of which was a failed attempt. In all but one I had actively done the zone events from the start of Pact preparations; in the last one (no box), a guildie told me her zone was about to Breach and I hurried over just in time to jump into Red for the Breach.

That one was my first time seeing the Darkwing and I did not know to jump on the flowers, so I went down every time >< Now I know, and will try doing it the right way. Maybe avoiding the big blast damage aids box chances? Y’know, do it right and up your odds? … nah. ’tis RNG.

Vinewrath 7 times so far, 1 coat-box for doing it 1st time. Boot/shoulder boxes from the bandit chests there, that’s it.

Update: Runs 1, 8 and 10 gave me all 3 coats, whew.

Done it 4 times. 2 coats. RNG is smiling down on me. Of course I’ve probably just jinxed myself…

Junkpile.7439:

Maybe anet could fix accounts that have broken rng. This is precursor all over again. Maybe some accounts can’t never get these boxes.

Maybe some people should realize that the “unlucky accounts” conspiracy is not only ridiculous but has no logical basis.

4 days of fighting Vinewrath boss, about 9 fights a day… still only have the first box you get as an achievement. I have all of the achievements, all of the organs, everything but my last 2 coats.

Keep the drop rate, don’t give in to those to just want to be given everything! :P
I like grind, makes it more exciting and rewarding when it does drop.
Love all of the recent and announced changes, talk about taking one giant sprinting leap in the right direction.
Keep up the great work

Why does everyone need more than one coat? Alts?

Stark.1350:

Why does everyone need more than one coat? Alts?

You must unlock all three if you want the luminescent version. You need the luminescent collection complete if you want the title “A Light in the Darkness.”

Also alts.

I wish there was a way to trade in boxes for armor you already have the full set of or don’t want for boxes of armor sets that you do want. For example, I went and bought my last carapace glove to complete the collection and the next bandit chest gave me a carapace glove box. I feel like I just wasted 1000 bandit crests. ;(