Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Jikuim.1349

Jikuim.1349

I’ve mailed support, but the answer was essentially a copy-paste of some kind of “we can’t help you here” issue, so, I’d like to see a definite answer from someone who has access to literal code.

A reddit user opened 500 chests, a guildmate of mine opened 500 chests, I opened 50 chests, another guildmate opened 100 chests, and a number of players I’ve talked to in map chat have opened 50-100.

NONE have reported a drop rate any more significant than what previously existed prior to the “2x drop rate” buff in yesterday’s patch. This buff should very well be noticeable.

The ticket SCRAP drop rate is absolutely 100% verifiable and noticeable. It’s essentially 1/2 BLC now.

The drop rate before was somewhere in the vicinity of ~1/75, but that’s not a very good estimate. If we take it at it’s worst, and assume it’s 1/100 (which I can almost guarantee it’s not, based on some statistical calculations using Wiki data), that would mean it’s now 1/50.

The guy on reddit who opened 500 reported 4 tickets, I got 0 in 50, a guildy got 0 in 100, another got 1 in 100, another got 4 in 500, a guy in map chat got 1 in 100.

I can link the statistics I worked out on these numbers, but the odds that the droprate is 2x what it previously was are astronomically low based on these numbers. So low that I can guarantee you with 95%+ certainty that either ANet botched the wording on something, or the 2x buff rate is not being applied correctly (or at all) to FULL tickets.

I REALLY need ANet to reply and let me know they’re sure they’re right, and I’ve just bumped into some insane RNG, else I’ll be wary of spending gems (which I’ve spent a LOT of money on) from now on.

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Pixelpumpkin.4608

Pixelpumpkin.4608

Does anybody else have anything to add here?

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Inculpatus cedo.9234

Inculpatus cedo.9234

Well, I opened a chest today and got a scrap. Yesterday, out of 5 chests I got 4 scraps and a full Ticket. A sixth chest gave me 2 Experience scrolls and a Booster. (I used the remainder of my left-over keys from the package.)

Not sure what, if anything, that means. /shrug

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

It would be helpful if you could link the Reddit posts in question.

My own tracking reveals
Pre-Double Odds Data

Double Odds Fortnight Data

You can see that with such a tiny sample size, the data varies wildly. (The wiki data probably suffers from reporting bias: fewer than 20 people are reporting data, which is a tiny fraction of players.) The few people I’ve seen posting on Reddit are seeing 7 skins/100 chests compared to 2.7-3.6 skins/100 seen before; that looks like double, but then again, I only have data for 110 chests post-update.

Given the sparsity of data, I don’t think we can draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen.

If you really want ANet to take a look, post the actual numbers you are collecting (ideally with links to screenshots and/or reddit posts). If I worked at ANet, I’d be asking to see data for at least 10,000 if not 50,000 chests before authorizing someone to spend a lot of time investigating this.


edit:

I’m confused by the July 29th date. The Double Odds only started on August 6th, so….

Thanks for pointing out that I used the wrong before/after date. This is now fixed:

  • There is data on 1248 chests collected through 5 Aug. Posted above.
  • Data for 125 chests was added on the wiki’s date of 6 Aug, which might be before or after the update. I’ve left them off the comparison.
  • Data for 15 chests was added after 6 Aug; not enough to use to draw any conclusions.

Regardless of my mangling the dates, the main points are:

  • This isn’t a lot of data.
  • What little there is suggests a noticeable increase in the drop rate.
John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

(edited by Illconceived Was Na.9781)

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Inculpatus cedo.9234

Inculpatus cedo.9234

I’m confused by the July 29th date. The Double Odds only started on August 6th, so….

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Pixelpumpkin.4608

Pixelpumpkin.4608

If I worked at ANet, I’d be asking to see data for at least 10,000 if not 50,000 chests before authorizing someone to spend a lot of time investigating this.

Ironically, it would be relatively easy for ANet to produce such data via a script, but difficult (not to mention costly) for the player base who have to collect the data manually.

Following this argument, ANet could make up whatever story and then just ask the playerbase to prove that they didn’t get what they paid for. Sweet deal for ANet, I guess.

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

I’m confused by the July 29th date. The Double Odds only started on August 6th, so….

Right. I’ll fix that. My apologies.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

If I worked at ANet, I’d be asking to see data for at least 10,000 if not 50,000 chests before authorizing someone to spend a lot of time investigating this.

Ironically, it would be relatively easy for ANet to produce such data via a script, but difficult (not to mention costly) for the player base who have to collect the data manually.

Following this argument, ANet could make up whatever story and then just ask the playerbase to prove that they didn’t get what they paid for. Sweet deal for ANet, I guess.

ANet doesn’t have to make up a story to explain anything, because there’s nothing yet to explain. Their existing “sanity checks” don’t show any anomalies and the actual change was probably changing a few numbers in a table (thus difficult to get wrong).

I get that the OP is convinced there’s a major issue, in which case, they should present the individual and aggregate numbers so we can all see the same thing.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

Keysus of Nazareth posted data on reddit for 250 chests

  • 115 scraps
  • 5 tickets

That’s 16.5 skins from 250 chances or 6.6 skins/100, not quite double the wiki’s 3.6 skins/100 (pre-August data of 1248 chests) and more than double the 2.7 skins/100 I recorded from Reddit (pre-August data from 825 chests).

Again, I don’t think the data I’ve presented is enough to establish a specific drop rate for either period, but it does suggest there’s a notably better chance at the moment to find tickets+scraps compared to last month. I’d be interested in any additional data that we could collate and compare.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?

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Posted by: Inculpatus cedo.9234

Inculpatus cedo.9234

I just got a key, tonight, for a map completion, and I got 2 scraps and a Booster. Seems pretty good, lately, to me. =)