Data shows error in "2x drop rate" BL Tix?
Does anybody else have anything to add here?
~ Whips ~ City Minigames ~ City Jumping Puzzles ~
Well, I opened a chest today and got a scrap. Yesterday, out of 5 chests I got 4 scraps and a full Ticket. A sixth chest gave me 2 Experience scrolls and a Booster. (I used the remainder of my left-over keys from the package.)
Not sure what, if anything, that means. /shrug
It would be helpful if you could link the Reddit posts in question.
My own tracking reveals
Pre-Double Odds Data
- The wiki has data for “1248 chests through 5 Aug”: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/index.php?title=Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate&oldid=854394, with 14 tickets and 308 scraps found, i.e. 44.8 skins or 3.6 skins for every 100 chests.
- Data from 825 chests showed three other redditors collecting 22.8 tickets, or about 2.7 skins per 100 chests. (250 chests, 500 chests, 75 chests) (I apologize that I am missing the link for the 75).
Double Odds Fortnight Data
- two redditors who posted data for 61 and 50 chests respectively found 3.9 tickets each (61 found 1 ticket + 29 scraps, 50 found 2 tickets + 19 scraps), roughly 7 skins for every 100 chests.
- The wiki has data for fewer than two dozen chests after the sixth.
You can see that with such a tiny sample size, the data varies wildly. (The wiki data probably suffers from reporting bias: fewer than 20 people are reporting data, which is a tiny fraction of players.) The few people I’ve seen posting on Reddit are seeing 7 skins/100 chests compared to 2.7-3.6 skins/100 seen before; that looks like double, but then again, I only have data for 110 chests post-update.
Given the sparsity of data, I don’t think we can draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen.
If you really want ANet to take a look, post the actual numbers you are collecting (ideally with links to screenshots and/or reddit posts). If I worked at ANet, I’d be asking to see data for at least 10,000 if not 50,000 chests before authorizing someone to spend a lot of time investigating this.
edit:
I’m confused by the July 29th date. The Double Odds only started on August 6th, so….
Thanks for pointing out that I used the wrong before/after date. This is now fixed:
- There is data on 1248 chests collected through 5 Aug. Posted above.
- Data for 125 chests was added on the wiki’s date of 6 Aug, which might be before or after the update. I’ve left them off the comparison.
- Data for 15 chests was added after 6 Aug; not enough to use to draw any conclusions.
Regardless of my mangling the dates, the main points are:
- This isn’t a lot of data.
- What little there is suggests a noticeable increase in the drop rate.
(edited by Illconceived Was Na.9781)
I’m confused by the July 29th date. The Double Odds only started on August 6th, so….
If I worked at ANet, I’d be asking to see data for at least 10,000 if not 50,000 chests before authorizing someone to spend a lot of time investigating this.
Ironically, it would be relatively easy for ANet to produce such data via a script, but difficult (not to mention costly) for the player base who have to collect the data manually.
Following this argument, ANet could make up whatever story and then just ask the playerbase to prove that they didn’t get what they paid for. Sweet deal for ANet, I guess.
~ Whips ~ City Minigames ~ City Jumping Puzzles ~
I’m confused by the July 29th date. The Double Odds only started on August 6th, so….
Right. I’ll fix that. My apologies.
If I worked at ANet, I’d be asking to see data for at least 10,000 if not 50,000 chests before authorizing someone to spend a lot of time investigating this.
Ironically, it would be relatively easy for ANet to produce such data via a script, but difficult (not to mention costly) for the player base who have to collect the data manually.
Following this argument, ANet could make up whatever story and then just ask the playerbase to prove that they didn’t get what they paid for. Sweet deal for ANet, I guess.
ANet doesn’t have to make up a story to explain anything, because there’s nothing yet to explain. Their existing “sanity checks” don’t show any anomalies and the actual change was probably changing a few numbers in a table (thus difficult to get wrong).
I get that the OP is convinced there’s a major issue, in which case, they should present the individual and aggregate numbers so we can all see the same thing.
Keysus of Nazareth posted data on reddit for 250 chests
- 115 scraps
- 5 tickets
That’s 16.5 skins from 250 chances or 6.6 skins/100, not quite double the wiki’s 3.6 skins/100 (pre-August data of 1248 chests) and more than double the 2.7 skins/100 I recorded from Reddit (pre-August data from 825 chests).
Again, I don’t think the data I’ve presented is enough to establish a specific drop rate for either period, but it does suggest there’s a notably better chance at the moment to find tickets+scraps compared to last month. I’d be interested in any additional data that we could collate and compare.
I just got a key, tonight, for a map completion, and I got 2 scraps and a Booster. Seems pretty good, lately, to me. =)