Showing Posts For APW.1569:
i dont really care if its manipulation or not. the price will settle again if the players think that it is too expensive. but it is quite a coincidence that all the chaos guns are gone in less than half a day. another thing is that chaos gun wasnt the “only victim” but dusk and other precursors too.
its only annoying if you get all your money together to buy a chaos gun for 700 and something just to see all the weapons gone and relisted for 1500g :P not talking for myself but i think this could be kinda annoying.
Ah, so its really about you not getting gold fast enough to buy what you want.
Just buy whatever gold you need with gems and buy it now, if you really want it. That will save you alot of time, compared to grinding out gold at an equal pace of the price increase.
If you are angry about rising precursor prices, thats fine. Just dont blame other people for it just because they play the game how its intended.
The reason I promote the use of Egg Baron is simple. It promotes very easy gold for players that have many skill points and does it in a simplistic manner. It gives you the risk involved as well which is convenient. Also, it doesn’t just have T5-6 and common crafting materials. The Spreadsheet covers all Rare, Fine and Common crafting material upgrades that involve skill points.
It covers all tiers of promotion for rare and fine mats but for common mats, it only covers t5-t6.
As tier 1 to tier 2 common mat promotion has the biggest profit per skillpoint, i wouldnt suggest to use Egg Barons Spreadsheet as its info is incomplete and hasnt been updated for over a year.
Even though Egg Baron hasn’t been updated in over a year it is still a pretty reliable spreadsheet to use. I haven’t been able to find many sheets or websites that are up to par with what I’m looking for, so if you have any suggestions share away.
It wasnt a reliable spreadsheet in the first place because it obviously is missing a couple of promotions and some of them are the most profitable.
So my suggestion would be not to promote to use it in your videos.
It’s reliable for what it offers because it pulls directly from spidy’s database. Yes, the prices will be slightly out of sync with the actual market prices, but it’s kitten well accurate enough. If you want the information for other promotion levels, do the kitten work yourself, dont ask for it to be handed to you.
It seems you had a bad day, i feel sorry for you.
If you calm down a bit and read my post again, you will realize that I never asked for him to provide a more accurate spreadsheet, i merely suggested not to tell people that whatever Egg Barons Spreadsheet says, gives you the most bang for the buck when promoting crafting materials in the mystic forge. Because for that purpose, its simply unreliable because its incomplete.
Until now, i used up around 1250 Skillpoints to promote t1 common mats (i promoted 5k+ stacks of those), i think i done my homework.
no with manipulated i mean somebody bought all the precursors just to relist them for a higher price. usually 1-3 precursor disappear from the market every day while about the same amount is relisted for a similar price. but when suddenly all the precursors disappear in a short time and in a price range from 700-1000g just to get relisted for 1400g it is clearly market manipulation.
If you would have checked the supply graph for Chaos Gun, you would have realized that the supply went down from 5 to 0 within 12 hours and not instantly and supply went down 1 by 1, not all at once. It took about the same time for 5 new Chaos Guns to appear on the tp and now there are 8.
If somebody thinks that Chaos Gun was undervalued at 800g, buys them all up and relists at 1400g, he is allowed to do so. Its perfectly fine and no manipulation at all, its just speculation.
The Chaos Gun didnt even gain much in value of buy orders. Before the last one on the tp got sold, it was at 720g, now its at 750g, thats only a 4% price rise and the highest bid even went down to 660g in the meantime.
I thought that even unranked economics departments would teach time series analysis. Prices get volatile after a shock, and individual data points during that period of volatility tell you next to nothing about where prices will stabilize.
Especially if you’re cherry picking the highs and lows of the fluctuations. Yes, you found someone making a mistake in a low information period and blowing themselves up. It’s happened thousands of times before and this won’t be the last. Why think it’s more than that?
i understand what you are saying, but what exactly is the endpoint of what you are saying?
or the main idea?this is a shock period and everything is unknown? i dont know if people were really disagreeing with that.
The main point is that its basic market forces at work here and not a few rich people messing with the market.
What happened to Dusk since patch is more related to raised demand due to changes made to Eternity and and a price spike to mithril which raised the average forging costs of dusk.
The market for a precursor has a way too high volume and supply cant be manipulated efficiently by anyone or any group to have an impact higher than general demand and supply from the average player base.
I dont think the value of the item can go past the what the market will bear, but that is kind of impossible for it to do so, what the market will bear is defined as what it sells at.
I do think people can alter prices in the short term via buying selling etc, in times of shock though. Not that that is wrong, but it is something they are known to do, and will do, and until the dust settles(in fact it is the service JS believes they provide, faster equilibrium), no one knows who is genius and who is fool. I think the key for a lot of people, is this is only something that extremely rich people can even play at. So they in general feel helpless, because the dude with 800 or even 1000 doesnt have much say in the high end precursor game. But this is according to game design.
Of course people can alter prices via buying and selling, thats how this economy works.
I dont doubt that some people make decent profit with precursors either because, as you mentioned, if you speculate on the price to rise, its an easy couple of hundred gold profit just with a few clicks, if you know what your are doing and know the market.
But its still hard to believe that those people are responsible for the mayority of supply and demand and therefore have any significant impact on the price rise because that is determined by those players that pay the price and bind the dusk to their account.
the market has been manipulated believe it or not. first dusk to 2000, then the hunter to ~1400 and now chaos gun to 1500.
If by “manipulated” you mean interacted with and working as intended, then yes.
The reason I promote the use of Egg Baron is simple. It promotes very easy gold for players that have many skill points and does it in a simplistic manner. It gives you the risk involved as well which is convenient. Also, it doesn’t just have T5-6 and common crafting materials. The Spreadsheet covers all Rare, Fine and Common crafting material upgrades that involve skill points.
It covers all tiers of promotion for rare and fine mats but for common mats, it only covers t5-t6.
As tier 1 to tier 2 common mat promotion has the biggest profit per skillpoint, i wouldnt suggest to use Egg Barons Spreadsheet as its info is incomplete and hasnt been updated for over a year.
Even though Egg Baron hasn’t been updated in over a year it is still a pretty reliable spreadsheet to use. I haven’t been able to find many sheets or websites that are up to par with what I’m looking for, so if you have any suggestions share away.
It wasnt a reliable spreadsheet in the first place because it obviously is missing a couple of promotions and some of them are the most profitable.
So my suggestion would be not to promote to use it in your videos.
Thanks, I’m reading news info not patch notes.
You are not reading patch notes and complain to miss vital info?
Go figure.
I thought that even unranked economics departments would teach time series analysis. Prices get volatile after a shock, and individual data points during that period of volatility tell you next to nothing about where prices will stabilize.
Especially if you’re cherry picking the highs and lows of the fluctuations. Yes, you found someone making a mistake in a low information period and blowing themselves up. It’s happened thousands of times before and this won’t be the last. Why think it’s more than that?
i understand what you are saying, but what exactly is the endpoint of what you are saying?
or the main idea?this is a shock period and everything is unknown? i dont know if people were really disagreeing with that.
The main point is that its basic market forces at work here and not a few rich people messing with the market.
What happened to Dusk since patch is more related to raised demand due to changes made to Eternity and and a price spike to mithril which raised the average forging costs of dusk.
The market for a precursor has a way too high volume and supply cant be manipulated efficiently by anyone or any group to have an impact higher than general demand and supply from the average player base.
Its mentioned in the patch notes but it obviously is easier to claim on the forums that they never release info like this than actually reading it for yourself.
And now it’s back down to 1295g, was 1200g before the spike and one was sole for 1150g a couple of hours ago.
Obviously, the cartel wants to distract players before making the minimum price 2500g next week.
Or they just lost all their gold on bad investments.
300% price increase on the insignia recipes in the last days.
And its effective….reason why every time a discussion is moved from general forum to here, most players stop following it and you can keep your broken TP Tycoon easy mode game.
What conforts me is to win this game you only need time, anyone can do it and any beginner is infact able to earn money from the TP.
Unfortunately most people find it extremely unfun, but you are proving nothing.
At least in this section, the OP got a Dev response within 14 hours.
I can only assume that a few people saw Woodenpotatoe’s guide to key farming on youtube, he mentions a minor sigil of speed there.
That is a plausible reason.
Dawn at 1600g now on TP by only 2 sellers! I wonder where the new “balance point” will go this time. Back at around 950g (as was previous days)? Or some hundreds gold higher? We will see that in a few days… as we will see about Dusk too.
PS: In case someone misunderstands, I am talking about dawn this time, not dusk.
Same argument, different item. The balance is where the players stop paying the high prices. Smart traders never make purchases from listings, but rather by placing Buy Orders. If someone is willing to pay 1600 Gold, so be it. I’ll gladly take their money.
buy orders tend to follow sell orders in price. buy order on dusk went up abour 200 sell price went up about 300-350.
but its up to the buyers whether it sticks/this happens.
I agree with you. And it is up to Anet if they want a precursor weapon (not a Legendary) to have a value of this high too. Anet knew, I believe, that those changes they’ve made at legendaries (account-bound, their skin can be applied many times, few cosmetic changes in eternity in last patch) would make precursors’ price climb to higher levels. But the difficult part for Anet was not to realise that precursors’ price will increase, but at which level they would go exactly! If Anet will be happy with the new “balanced point-price”, I guess they won’t make a change. If not, I guess they will have to take measures (example: other ways of acquiring precursor weapons).
I want to say something more. Buyers agreeing buying precursor weapons at higher prices (balanced point) doesn’t mean that their numbers stay the same. Will the number of buyers be the same again when precursor’s prices raise again (even when dawn and dusks are bought at that price)? Or will some quit game and bored with it? I think this matter should be considered by Anet. Achieving always a higher “balanced point” in price market doesn’t mean it is always the best for Anet’s interests.
Anet wont lose many people who buy precursors at this price, they have money to spare, or just want what they want enough to get it. They may lose other people who cant afford the items though, but thats probably pretty hard to track.
If people leave the game because they cant afford a precursor or legendary, thats hardly a loss for Anet. They gave them the opportunity to buy gold with gems. If people dont want to spend any money, even though they want a legendary so bad, an therefore leave the game, Anet doesnt lose anything.
the main difference is, that while i understand that this is the way the game is. I dont think its a good paradigm to continue as the game matures. it doesnt necessarilly have to be shinies, but the game needs to create some more goals whose focus is less based on heavy grind/gold.
.They have done this, though the development process and the fact that they have chosen not to collect new content into a single expansion but release it over time makes it hard to see sometimes. Success is a matter of opinion, and expectations.
Fractals and ascended gear were early attempts to add rewards that were not tied to gold acquisition. Ascended crafting for the most part continues this, though being able to buy and sell some of the materials seems to be a concession to more casual players, who can turn materials they don’t have a need for into gold so the hardcores can get their shinies faster.
They added the wardrobe to be more casual friendly, you can spend a single weapon claim ticket and use the skin on multiple toons, making it less of a grind for players with alts to find good skins to use.
They changed the trait system and added new traits to give goal-oriented players something to work towards. I haven’t looked into it, so I don’t know how successful it is so far, but it shows they are listening to players’ concerns.
Many LS event rewards were account-bound and cannot be bought with gold. Minis, armor skins and such that can be collected but not traded on the TP. Mostly a casual goal, with a few exceptions, because the LS content is usually pretty simple to complete. But it gives players a way to personalize their toons without grinding for thousands of gold.
Legendaries are high profile items, but hardly the only goal in the game for players to work towards. Many changes have happend just in the last month or so, and more are coming. The main problem is impatience, players do not realize there is a process involved where devs collect and analyze data about the players, discuss their options, and have to develop and test several new systems, some of which will be discarded at some point, before deciding on what changes to make to the game. Issues that were discussed in Winter 2012 are only now making it into the game, and issues being discussed now will not be resolved for at least six months, to a year or more.
Players who see a situation like Dusk prices and expect something to be done this week will only be disappointed. It just doesn’t work like that.
I agree with this. I think recently, they have implemented alot of economical changes, which arent short time fixes but aim to balance the economy in the coming months/years.
Wardrobe changes came along with price spikes for precursors and rare weapon skins, which is normal due to the added functionality. So demand is high right now but i think as soon as the bulk of the demand is satisfied, it will go down.
Maybe before the feature patch, there was steady demand of 20 dusks per day, and now its 30 dusk per day. But once those people who want one now got theirs, they will most likely never demand another dusk as long as they play. So after time, demand will go down to 10 per day and we will see prices fall. Many people who played since launch still havent got a legendary and might see the other changes made to the economy (no more gold from champ bags, QD Train elimination) as unfair but i think its part of a bigger scheme to balance the economy (and gameplay) towards new players.
It seems that many changes since the feature patch are tailored towards sinking mats and gold out of the economy to find a better balance between old and new players and introduce new reward structures.
Pushing gem to gold conversion propably is another point on their agenda but im fine with that. I rather have people giving their money to Anet then RMTs.
i doubt people would sell them at 1150g…. after the events over it will be the rarest item in game, someone could probably sell for 10k or even more
If I had the recipe I would sell it now. Anet will never make an item that rare, especially with the outrage that would follow.
Yeah, i am pretty sure that some people who got it as a drop dont have the gold for the listing fee.
I guess it just goes to show you how many dyes were actually out there and the fact that no one really needs them at this point in the games life. I mean the supply has done nothing but increase since it was removed from the loot tables.
Well, they did hand out millions of unid’d dyes for free to players with duplicate color unlocks. So the supply doubled, tripled, or more overnight. Not sure if the giveaway expires, if not then future returning players could find they have dozens to hundreds of bonus dyes sitting in their bags.
We also saw a key sale last week and new weapon skins for tickets/scraps, so alot of blc got opened this week, so alot of new supply UIDs came from there.
As we can be fairly certain that key sales and new weapon skins will occur on a regular basis, new UIDs will come along with them.
back to the point of the thread, it appears that dusks are selling at 1500+ and the buy orders are not getting filled as fast as people may be used to. the buy orders seem to range from 1220-1300.
as it stands, it seems like the buy order will come up to the 1300 range,
im guessing if we take a look at the 60 hours after the gangsta move, we will say a fairly large increase in price.
So you think that increase in demand was triggered because someone bought out the 3 remaining dusks right after patch and not due to the changes for Eternity?
Most likely, someone bought in bulk and didnt realize that there were only a few left.
Its craftable for 10s.
It was a reward for a meta achievement, so its more likely to show up in game again (like karka back and gas mask at the festival vendor) than in the gem store
Even, if they have 100k gold, give me 1 reason why they should waste it just for the lulz? It makes no sense. Those .
Does it make sense that you get most money without Killing a isngle mob in a mmorpg?
When you don t care of pvp, WWW, and pve but your game is economy…does it really matters if you lose gold?
You will be making hundreds in days anyway.
But if you can actually successfully manipulate something (usual example is the old sigil of generosity) you can brag forever in this hipster section.Like players doing solo runs in dungeon:
It takes lot of time more than with a party and they risk failing….and the reward is the same.If they really cared for the rest of the game they wouldn t be speculating in the first place since they would see with their eyes how it ruins the game.
The excuse of the consumer defining the value is totally false.
Its a game…..people will have less and it will impact quality of the time spent in the game.Does it change something that a player saving gold for a precursor after getting really near, quit the game because it doubled in price in a day?
It happen frequently….it simply ruins the game for everyone.
In this game shinies are a necessity sinc ethe game is based on them.Now the ultimate question is, does it Worth enough to make me reduce my “play the way i want” time for “grinding”….or should i just quit?
Thanks for failing to provide a single arguement why rich players should waste their gold with nonsense like this and instead going on a off topic rant.
Ton answer you last question:
In your case, i advice (and hope for) the latter.
You are just using your usual way to derail arguments.
Checking any sectikon and find people wasting thousands gold is not that hard:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/A-goal-completed/first#post4043056Yet you try to Always ask hundred questions changing arguments continuosly to derail attention from issues that will either destroy the game or be fixed.
Either way you will be soon see changes.
How can you even start to compare Piles of Essence with precursors?
Piles of Essence are available at 1c over vendor value, so there all you lose is 2.5s per stack if you decide to sell it to a vendor.
All i see from you are rants about reward structures and conspiracy theories about some rich people that presumably pump their money into a market that trades 25k gold in value per day without any evidence of logic.
At the moment, many unrefined mats are more expensive than refined mats due to the new trader.
Its gonna be interesting to see how long it takes for the refined mats to catch up with their crafting costs.
The end of the Queensdale Champ train could also have a big impact oon supply of mostly t1 mats but also other tiers, as it ws used alot for leveling alts.
Nearly 90% of the copper ore is gone from the TP and its about 3 to 4 times more expensive now than before patch. After the initial buyout, supplies are only veryslowly creeping up again, so i think copper and bronze ingots will catch up in price slowly.
Yeah, i also realized that the recipes for inscriptions and insignias dont drop as much as last year.