Guild Wars 2

To clarify my math and my terminology:

The “profit” term when referring to listing/selling items is the percent difference between selling the items at the current lowest listing price and selling them at the median lowest listing price over the last 30 days. The 15% tax (5% listing fee and 10% sales tax) isn’t taken out of this number, because it’s taken out of the sale no matter how or when you sell it, so it’s irrelevant in determining a profit margin.

The “profit” term when describing bids is slightly more involved, as it refers to buying the items at the current highest bid price (fulfilling bid orders) and then reselling them at the 30-day median list price. The profit percentage listed here does include the 15% tax on the selling end, so a “40% profit” would actually be closer to 55%. To illustrate, an item whose bid price is currently 15% below the 30-day listing median would have a 0% profit margin, as you would have to fill the bid, list it at the median, and pay the 15% tax, resulting in no profit.

There is definitely speculation involved, and that is the point of the post, as I’m trying to provide some data for people who are interested in speculating on the market.

Using the “Vicious Fang (17s, 49c per): 121% profit” as an example, using the 1-day moving average, the 30-day range for listings was between 23c and 15s, 57c. This puts the median at 7s, 90c. The listings at 17s, 49c are 121% higher than the median listing of 7s, 90c for Vicious Fangs. There are different ways to calculate profits and track the flow of the market, but that’s how I did these.

I would encourage people to watch the market themselves, to do their own calculations and to draw their own conclusions, especially since if you choose to speculate you are very much using your own money. However, I was hoping an analysis like mine here could at least provide some market commentary of a directional nature, if nothing else.

Thank you for your comments and your interest. I hope more people add to the discussion!

Astraea.6075:

There’s a few threads dealing with this already, so I’ll try to be brief.

Firstly, there are two rates not just the one rate. There is a gold -> gem rate and a gem -> gold rate, and there is roughly a 30% difference between the two. No confirmed reason for this difference, but it may be there to act as a gold sink and also to discourage short-term speculation in gems.

The rate does not just steadily increase, http://www.gw2spidy.com/gem shows the fluctuations in the exchange rates, but overall the rate has been trending upward since launch.

It has been confirmed that the exchange has a supply of gems and gold, and that the rate changes based on the demand.

John Smith.4610:

There seems to be some confusion:
The currency exchange has a supply of Gems and Gold.

If players are converting Gold to Gems, then the Amount of Gold player will receive for their gems goes up.
If players are converting Gems to Gold, then the amount of Gems players receive for Gold goes up.

The exchange rate changes based on the scarcity of each supply. You cannot inflate it, it’s an exchange rate. As players purchase in one direction, it entices purchases in the other direction.

I posted about this in another thread, and am posting it again here. I think I saw a dev post about this a week or two ago, but I can’t seem to find it. Anyway, here’s my attempt at explaining the 30% gap:

When you exchange gold for gems, you are “selling” your gold and paying a 15% selling fee. Similarly, when you exchange gems for gold, you are “selling” your gems for gold and paying the 15% fee as well, which is what causes the gap between the two exchange rate prices.

As I understand it, in normal Trading Post transactions, the goods are bought directly from another player. In the currency exchange, however, the gems and gold are “sold” to a server that acts as a third party. Since the server acts as the buyer in all transactions, and the player acts as the seller, the player pays the 15% fee on each conversion, regardless of the direction (gold to gems or gems to gold).

Thanks for the positive responses, guys! I wouldn’t consider myself “loaded” in-game just yet, but working on it.

I didn’t know about the bot node hack. That’s pretty interesting. I did notice gold spammers in map chat in Lion’s Arch last night, though, so if those things don’t get handled as effectively as the bots have been, we could see some inflation set in, which would mean it’s better to be sitting on a stockpile of materials rather than a stockpile of gold.

Karka shells are new, and I’m kind of viewing them as a more long-term candy corn (in that they’re highly specialized in their use, not that they’re not worth anything), though I could be wrong. Regardless, it’s too new to show a 30-day price trend, so at least for now it’s excluded from my spreadsheets.

I’m thinking the next category I should include are rare crafting materials (like lodestones). From the positive response here, I think I’ll be updating this information again next week. Thanks again for the feedback!

Yes. I credited the site in the second paragraph. Also, note my profit/loss numbers are based on the median prices over the last 30 days, not an average price over its entire history.

Below is a synopsis of where the market is, and what profits can be made buying and selling right now. My apologies that the tables didn’t come through cleanly.

Profit margins are based off of fulfilling buy orders at the current high bid price (when buying) or creating listings at the current lowest listed price (when selling). Credit goes to www.gw2spidy.com for the data.

Summary

What’s Hot: T6 crafting mats for known ascended quality Mystic Forge recipes are through the roof, with prices ranging from 45-120% above normal. Other mats for the new ascended items are also high (for example, Glob of Ectoplasm: +31%).

What’s Not: Logs and Ore are selling at big discounts, with Logs offering a 40% profit currently, and Ore at 23%. Tier 1 crafting mats (in particular, Tiny Fangs, Scales and Totems) are at a huge discount as well, offering a 40-76% profit range. New recipes were promised in the Lost Shores content, so the prices of all fine crafting mats spiked, but as there have been no low-tier recipes introduced, the fine crafting mats are dipping back to below their norm.

What to Buy

Ore and Logs are low due primarily to a lack of people leveling new characters with the FotM dungeon. The demand has dropped sharply for ore and logs across the board, as well as for tier 1 fine crafting mats. The best deals are as follows:

Best Buy (Greater Than 50% Profit):

1) Hard Wood Log (6c per): 113% profit
2) Platinum Ore (11c per): 85% profit
3) Elder Wood Log (13c per): 77% profit
4) Tiny Fang (7c per): 76% profit
5) Tiny Scale (20c per): 62% profit

Good Buy (25-50% Profit):

1) Tiny Totem (16c per): 41% profit
2) Mithril Ore (16c per): 41% profit
3) Soft Wood Log (13c per): 34% profit
4) Tiger’s Eye Pebble (20c per): 32% profit
5) Iron Ore (11c per): 31% profit

What to Sell

Obviously, the ascended crafting mats are in high demand right now. Any T6 crafting mat is spiking, as well as common commodities like Unidentified Dye. T5 crafting mats and T6 dust are spiking slightly less, because they can be converted to T6 mats in random quantities at the Mystic Forge. Top profit margins are:

Best Sell (Greater Than 50% Profit):

1) Vicious Fang (17s, 49c per): 121% profit
2) Vicious Claw (9s, 85c per): 104% profit
3) Powerful Venom Sac (4s per): 71% profit
4) Unidentified Dye (8s, 25c per): 66% profit
5) Potent Venom Sac (1s, 13c per): 64% profit
6) Armored Scale (19s, 39c per): 63% profit
7) Vial of Powerful Blood (25s, 2c per): 60% profit
8) Vial of Potent Blood (2s, 29c per): 56% profit
9) Ancient Bone (2s per): 50% profit
10) Large Scale (1s, 33c per): 50% profit

Good Sell (25% to 50% Profit)

1) Sharp Fang (2s, 32c per): 50% profit
2) Large Claw (1s, 6c per): 48% profit
3) Sharp Claw (1s, 35c per): 45% profit
4) Pile of Crystalline Dust (5s, 47c per): 44% profit
5) Full Venom Sac (1s, 5c per): 37% profit
6) Scale (98c per): 34% profit
7) Glob of Ectoplasm (24s, 60c per): 31% profit
8) Rugged Leather Section (24c per): 30% profit
9) Totem (90c per): 30% profit
10) Heavy Bone (1s, 21c per): 29% profit
11) Carnelian Lump (75c per): 27% profit
12) Bone (96c per): 26% profit

Breakdown by Category

A detailed breakdown of the current profit/loss for buying/selling categories is below for reference.

By Category Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Basic Crafting -15.00% 9.23%
Fine Crafting 14.37% -17.87%
Rare Crafting -16.19% -2.67%
Gemstone -10.87% -5.56%

Basic Crafting – By Tier Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
1 -13.90% -2.12%
2 -23.52% 12.72%
3 -7.43% -9.92%
4 -20.27% 41.37%
5 -24.97% 25.69%
6 2.20% -13.21%


Basic Crafting – By Type Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Cloth -2.25% -14.08%
Leather 2.82% -13.59%
Ore -26.87% 22.73%
Logs -31.73% 39.64%

Fine Crafting – By Tier Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
1 -24.32% 26.07%
2 -10.44% -7.17%
3 1.93% -17.26%
4 20.98% -27.21%
5 31.05% -31.18%
6 67.02% -50.50%

Fine Crafting – By Type Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Bone 14.78% -20.07%
Claw 31.97% -30.25%
Dust 7.11% -18.55%
Fang 14.32% -7.78%
Scale 14.34% -14.21%
Totem -4.45% -6.58%
Venom Sac 19.73% -18.82%
Vial of Blood 17.15% -26.72%

Gemstone – By Type Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
Power -20.79% -1.10%
Condition Damage -7.37% -12.28%
Magic Find -9.06% -5.82%
Healing Power -10.44% -4.48%
Precision -5.89% -4.94%
Vitality -13.84% -3.40%
Crit Damage -8.31% -7.19%

Gemstone – By Tier Sell Profit at List Buy Profit at Bid
1 -9.20% -0.72%
2 -15.24% -4.26%
3 -1.27% -8.26%
4 -16.22% -2.66%
5 -7.49% -12.19%
6 -15.58% -4.59%

When you exchange gold for gems, you are “selling” your gold and paying a 15% selling fee. Similarly, when you exchange gems for gold, you are “selling” your gems for gold and paying the 15% fee as well, which is what causes the gap between the two exchange rate prices.

As I understand it, in normal Trading Post transactions, the goods are bought directly from another player. In the currency exchange, however, the gems and gold are “sold” to a server that acts as a third party. Since the server acts as the buyer in all transactions, and the player acts as the seller, the player pays the 15% fee on each conversion, regardless of the direction (gold to gems or gems to gold).

To clarify, also from the GW2 wiki:

" If a character is defeated with no coin, coin will be taken from their account vault. If their account vault is also empty, they can be revived for free at the nearest waypoint."

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Waypoint

From the GW2 wiki:

“Travel to the nearest waypoint never costs more money than you have in your inventory or bank, being free in particular if you’re broke. Thus, defeated broke players can always revive at the nearest waypoint (unless contested).”

You can climb and jump over the walls that appear.