Guild Wars 2

Xcom.1926:

Anthony.7219:

The great thing about GW2 is that it is (and always has been, which is a key) without a monthly fee. If you’re bored, leave for a while. They’ll keep adding content, and when something is released that you like (New fractals, heck, they’ve got to unlock the desert and some new dragons eventually!) You can pop in and check it out for free. Its one of two reasons that I can think of that this game hasn’t seen the dropoff that most games outside of WoW have seen after the first few months of release.

Why do people keep saying that? You could have said that 5 years ago, but today almost all MMOs are free to play. So GW2 isn’t special in that regard at all. And this game has seen a drop off after release, per Izzy on a Polygon article.

Secondly, you can also drop games like WoW and come back to it at a later time. Most WoW players including myself have quit and gone back multiple times.

Basically what I am trying to say is that the payment model can’t be used as an excuse anymore, especially when the market is flooded with F2P games.

I would say that there is a difference between free to play and purchase to play, and that games that start out with a monthly payment method, lose all their base, then convert to F2P don’t attract the same audience as one designed to be funded this way like GW2. GW2 is a year old and they’re still selling it for $50. That is a total win. SWTOR was $15 two-three months after release, then became free. Finally, WoW is different than most MMOs, and using it as a comparison is unfair.

I’ve played a lot of MMOs, but ultimately I can only give you examples that apply to me, I’m not a mind reader. I’ve seen all those F2P games on Steam, they make me want to puke. I’ve seen games like SWTOR become F2P, and I have zero desire to go back.

Peetee.9406:

You guys are aware that NC Soft also owns Wildstar, correct?

I mean where did you think your money from gem purchases goes? Obviously to fund the creation of another game that will share a 95% likeness to Guild Wars 2.

Instead of adding new content to the game, they can just reskin the entire game and sell it to you again.

ArenaNet runs the Guild Wars series, and NCSoft runs other series. NCSoft was running Lineage 2 and City of Heroes while Guild Wars was running. I think your guess is a little cynical.

Guild Wars was also buy-to-play, although they used expansions instead of the gem store. NCSoft was running-wild with $15/mo subscription fees in CoH and Lineage2 at the same time.

Lord Kuru.3685:

I think if Anet had done the LS properly, with compelling storylines, interesting gameplay, and truly changing world, they could have got away without releasing actual expansions.

As it is, LS now has a connotation of being rushed, bugged, with shallow gameplay and nary a story. It’s going to take the magic word “expansion” for people to come back and take another look at GW2. And no, “expansion’s worth of content” will not cut it, Anet tried that lie already.

If they opened up Kralkatorik and the Crystal Desert along with 4-5 areas, a new story arc, new weapon skins, new skills, and new infusions/upgrades to defend against Kralkatorik’s attacks they would come back. Isn’t that why Ebonhawk is where it is?

I don’t care if they want to give it to me for free, its an expansion.

Edit: And yes, that’s what I expect soon-ish. (a year maybe?)

coronaas.4362:

Anthony.7219:

The GW2 option is better because people can come back after a bit without seeing the “F2P” label (I see this and think “yuck” because the F2P crowd isn’t the same type of community that a well established game is. They also tend to use the excuse “Hey, its free” around every corner) or they pay and have to take the risk to play the game, or they come back, pay, and see the world completely dead.

i agree with you up until this point. yes the b2p model does have its benefits (all the goldsellers accounts on free weekends etc) but the direction that they have taken the game with almost exclusive fluff content is because of this payment model in the first place. It has to appeal to the widest audience while coming out with constant content to give those people a reason to log in constantly. When quantity and speed are the focus over quality the game suffers and guild wars is suffering in this respect.

Yeah, its not perfect. I, frankly, prefer the $15/mo option, but I also NEED to know my MMO isn’t going to be dead in 2 months. I had faith in GW2 to last, and I’m not disappointed. Its been a year since launch and I see people while leveling. I fight a vetran mob or start an escort quest and people join me. I won’t be trying another MMO because I find that GW2 is part of a rare group of MMOs that has “succeeded” where other have “failed”.

coronaas.4362:

Anthony.7219:

Is Wildstar is going to be free to play, monthly fee, or buy the game and play like GW2?

eve model $15 a month but you can use in game money to buy more time

wildstar is going after a very niche hardcore pve market as well as a hardcore pvp market. by going f2p or b2p requires appealing to a broad market to get them to spend money in your cash shop. by being a monthly fee they don’t have to dumb things down to the lowest common denominator.

The reason I asked: I have played a lot of MMOs. IMO having the $15 monthly fee gives people a reason to permanently “quit” the game instead of just getting bored with it. It creates a barrier to re-entry so unless the game is extremely epic, it usually results in lower populations after the first few months when people get bored with launch content [unless the game is another WoW of course]. There will still be people playing, but it will be more like Lineage 2 with a small hardcore following, or SWTOR where everyone leaves after a month and they are forced to put in a F2P option (thereby announcing to the world “HEY, OUR GAME IS DEAD, PLEASE COME SAVE US!”)

The GW2 option is better because people can come back after a bit without seeing the “F2P” label (I see this and think “yuck” because the F2P crowd isn’t the same type of community that a well established game is. They also tend to use the excuse “Hey, its free” around every corner) or they pay and have to take the risk to play the game, or they come back, pay, and see the world completely dead.

I got bored of wow YEARS ago, and before then (my first MMO was SWG) and since then I’ve been going from MMO to MMO trying to find one where my guild, community, etc. didn’t disappear on me — semi-forcing me to leave before I was ready. Sad really, there was a lot of good games in that group.

Is Wildstar is going to be free to play, monthly fee, or buy the game and play like GW2?

The great thing about GW2 is that it is (and always has been, which is a key) without a monthly fee. If you’re bored, leave for a while. They’ll keep adding content, and when something is released that you like (New fractals, heck, they’ve got to unlock the desert and some new dragons eventually!) You can pop in and check it out for free. Its one of two reasons that I can think of that this game hasn’t seen the dropoff that most games outside of WoW have seen after the first few months of release.

That’s what I did with original GW. I came back years later, my character was still there, I bought an expansion pack, and was right back in it.

I would love a time jump story but I don’t see why it has to physically tie into the original GW game in order for this to be interesting.

A few pre-searing Ascalon missions perhaps?

dostunuz.3982:

You all forgot Spears for land combat. Tsk tsk tsk.

Spear and shield with gladiator armor would be super.

Great idea. Didn’t the paragon in original gw have a spear? They might need to call it something else because the name spear would be tied to the 2h under water version.

Long bow for Guardians, shoot an arrow that creates a symbol. Blue flame arrow. Healing arrow. Lots of stuff they could do.

Not broken for me, I like my character to be the same in PVE and PVP, so, for example, my Thief is pistol-pistol. In PVE its not as fast at killing as dagger-dagger, but in PVP it means the difference between getting 1-hit killed by a warrior or being the best player on my team.

Thieves: Axes. I’d like to see the thief have more weapons that don’t have a lot of condition damage attached to them. They also need a new off hand weapon option. The only reason I don’t want to say torch is because of the conditions. I don’t like playing condition damage when I know its unpopular and being worked on.

Levels in MMOs are just a mechanic that is used to encourage the player to explore and develop their character. In SWG they just had skill development with no levels (you never gained more HP), but that game had a lot of crazy stuff (no NPC merchants, only player merchants), and there was definitely still a grind.

Thanks. Too bad

I wonder if other people can use it once I bring it out? Might make me a popular guy to bring along, haha.

(I haven’t played since I bound it)

So I accidentally bound (without realizing how exceedingly rare it was) a permanent black lion merchant (buys your equipment or sells basic stuff, harvesting tools, etc.). Since I can’t go back on it and sell it for the 400g its worth(going price on the auction house) I’m looking for opinions on what the heck I can do with it?

Any ideas? Any areas where this thing would be useful?

Or they could make Centaurs a playable race. I wanna slaughter me some villagers!

Redenaz.8631:

I think QueenHysteria is looking for another player faction to conflict with, going off of her examples of Luxons/Kurzicks and Alliance/Horde. There’s definitely no shortage of playever-versus-NPC factions, but it’s not quite the same.

There can be server rivalries for WvW, but I think she’s looking for something with more flavor-basis.

Make Centaurs playable.

What if Asurans created a self-replicating series of sentient golems?

CattivoUomo.7198:

Anthony.7219:

I should note that this wasn’t originally in the suggestion thread, nor was I whining about not being handed a race change. I personally feel it is a waste to spend the time leveling what amounts to the exact same character twice (race doesn’t really matter for gameplay) so I’m forcing myself to level another class. I completely understand what you’re saying, but I was actually looking forward to re-doing my story as a different race, I just didn’t want to lose absolutely everything and start a second identical character.

Hope that makes sense.

I understand what you’re saying, but the point I was making is that players would just end up leveling only one character to level 80, then race change as they please rather than actually starting a new character thus skipping the race specific story lines. Now I know the stories may not appeal to everyone and they may not be all that great to some people, but the developers spent time and money on those aspects of the game so if it were my game I would want players to at least go through them once as it was intended. And even though you say you were looking forward to redoing the your story with another race, it wouldn’t be the same effect since you would be level 80 with level 80 armor, weapons and skills. The scaling system only partially compensates for that.

In addition, there are race specific skills which can have an effect on gameplay, unlike your claim. May not be a huge effect, but an effect is an effect. There are also cultural armors and weapons that are race specific, and if you only have to work for one set of those armors and weapons, you aren’t playing, which can lead to a faster death of the game.

I further add that once players get the option to reroll their race, they will then begin asking to reroll their class as well. For the same reasoning, I would want my players to have to play the game as it was intended rather than to simply hand them the end result. It’s not like leveling to 80 even takes that long, so might as well experience as much of the content as you can.

I further point out that the purpose for this game is to not only provide entertainment, but for the creators to make money. One of the ways they make money is by selling additional character slots. They additionally have greater potential to make more money by having players play longer. They could make and sell a race reroll item as you suggested, but that could lead to fewer gem purchases for other items since many players choose to buy all the gadgets, armor skins, finishers, and so on for more than one character. Re-rolls may remove that desire for many players since now they can have 1 character that has it all.

Fewer trading post transactions can lead to problems with the game economy. If you’re not buying armor and weapons, or crafting material for characters you are leveling, then that hurts the economy leading to a faster death to the game. That also leads to fewer players actually playing because now players just need one character and never have to buy any additional armor or weapons, and they reach their end goals faster.

Others on this post have already said, they like your idea because the don’t want to waste their “time and money” leveling another character. That’s potentially money out of the developers pockets. Even if you never spend money in the gem store, your time and effort in the game has an effect on the in game economy, and a healthy game economy helps keep the game alive longer. Players must have goals to work towards, otherwise the game dies. So as you level your new Sylvari Guardian, please think about the starving developers, keep the game alive longer for yourself and your fellow players, and most importantly, have fun.

You make a lot of good points, and several people have pointed out issues that are, IMO, too large to overcome.

How about making those birthday XP scrolls purchasable on the gem store? I used mine up creating an Asuran Engineer only to discover that I don’t really like them. I guess I should have played SPvP for a while first to figure out if I liked Engineers.

Nah, that won’t work either. I’ll keep thinking.

CC Danicia.1394:

Waldir.2571:

Yes! A petition sounds good

Actually, a petition sounds bad, as it violates our Forum Code of Conduct. You’re better off having a discussion about the suggestion, as that is what the Dev Teams read.

Thanks for the warning!

Ellewind.9640:

What?! No, no! wait! Nobody remember the Peter Fries on Twitter “GW2 race popularity makes me sad, People avoiding charr & asura are missing the strongest story stuff in our game, IMO.”?? and what about the eternal “Armors looks like…in no humans, Norn” cry?? we really want another race just like that? we don´t have capes cause its difficult from charrs right? so nobody get capes :P

Just make a NEW good looking race, expand the Gw universe. Asura and Norn existence was unknown until Eye of the North, and the Sylvari just born. Please, stop this madness!!

Bring back dwarves?

Those searchable patch notes are awesome! Thanks for the link!

I actually left around the same time and came back last month. WvW rewards, achievements, and the gemstore were revamped. There is also a bi-weekly release now that has something in it I usually don’t have time to complete. They’re quite frequently removed (its called ‘living story’ or something like that), but they do have some neat stuff in them. I did the closing ceremonies starting mission (but couldn’t finish it) and it felt like a personal story mission. The last couple since then have been world bosses/time consuming tasks/new dungeon path, and I haven’t been able to do do any of that stuff.

It feels like they’re just adding little stuff here and there.

LanfearShadowflame.3189:

There is a new jumping puzzle in G. Fields
We are expecting 3 additional fractals maps between now and the end of the year
One TA path has been completely overhauled in this last update
Scarlet was introduced, and her invasions happen sporadically throughout the day
Tequatl got an overhaul as well, making him more difficult and setting a timer to defeat him
All meta bosses now have timers, and most got hp bumps until they can get their “Tequatl” overhauls as well
Champs now drop “loot bags” to make them more desirable to kill. As such, you can now find farming trains in Queensdale and Frostforge if you are so inclined
Halloween will be back at the end of the month
Weapons crafting has been boosted to 500 to accommodate ascended crafting
I think all of the previous ‘limited time’ weapons skins are now available via a trader in LA, they require black lion tickets to acquire, which can be a pain, but can be done. Most of them are also tradable now, so you can find them on the TP.
WvW has “weapons” trait lines you can build

There’s a few more I think, but that’s just what popped to mind for me. (not generally a pvper, so most of my attention is pve oriented)

Was fractals in 10 months ago or is that new to the op?

Edit: Just checked, Nov 2012.

Mathias.9657:

BECAUSE GW2 IS DYING

Really though probably because they want more players? Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out.

They also have to please the gods over at NCSoft

So glad I don’t have to worry about my MMO dying for once. $60 for the game then $30 for two months of play then the game is dead, new MMO, repeat. Game price goes down to $15 in month 3, then free in month 4. A few people return, the game is never the same. You play the next mmo and laugh at people who talk about SWTOR/STO/etc./etc./etc.

I think I just figured out a build for my level 27 Sylvari Thief. It wasn’t easy since I don’t like stealth or condition heavy builds, if it works out this weekend then I’m officially in the “leave it alone” camp again

Talenna.4052:

I wonder if it’s also something to do with items such as cultural armour? If a player wanted to reroll a level 80 Asura, with Tier 3 cultural armour, would there then be calls to have that swapped too?

Excellent point, this would really screw things up.

CattivoUomo.7198:

It defeats the purpose of playing each race’s unique storyline, leveling that race, and in general promotes not playing a lot of the game. If you want a Sylvari, make a new character and work for it. It’s not like it takes that long to level up, so you might as well just start and who knows, maybe you’ll see or do an event in the game you’ve never seen before. Maybe you don’t like that idea, but what’s the point of playing the game if you aren’t putting in a little effort to achieve something? If you can change races, then next you’ll just want to change your character class from warrior to ranger or whatever, thus defeating the purpose behind having multiple races and classes. As I’ve suggested in other posts, what the devs need to do is provide better incentives to players to encourage playing and leveling up new characters. Adding more storylines that are unique to each race and maybe even class would go a long way to enhancing the replay-ability of this game, and in the process would help players level up. Obviously the storylines need to be engaging, challenging, fun and with reasonable rewards for the effort. The moment the devs start adding fast tracks to end goals, that’s when replay-ability is thrown out the window. If you want a Sylvari Guardian; work for it.

I should note that this wasn’t originally in the suggestion thread, nor was I whining about not being handed a race change. I personally feel it is a waste to spend the time leveling what amounts to the exact same character twice (race doesn’t really matter for gameplay) so I’m forcing myself to level another class. I completely understand what you’re saying, but I was actually looking forward to re-doing my story as a different race, I just didn’t want to lose absolutely everything and start a second identical character.

Hope that makes sense.

I’m not alone, but don’t expect help. Gotcha

So I’ve got a level 80 Human Guardian, and I’ve been playing around with alts only to discover that what I really want to do is re-start my game as a Sylvari Guardian. Am I crazy? Has anyone else done this? To be perfectly honest, if there was a cash shop item to keep my level but wipe my race, I’d use it, even if it wiped my personal story.

Mesmer has a ton of confuse. Guardian has a lot (though less than the Mesmer with confuse) of retaliation. Can’t confirm the “most” though. Race won’t matter much.

They don’t really go together (confuse and retaliation) if that’s what you mean, retaliation scales with power and confuse scales with condition damage.

Wow, some interesting stuff in here.

I’d like to see an MMO with the travel (or lack thereof) from Lineage 2.
BUT NOTHING ELSE, THAT GAME WAS AWFUL!

I’m guessing Quaggan (despite what other are claiming), in 4 years when they release the under sea dragon expansion or living story.

As for a profession… I dunno, hard to think of a new Soldier profession. Druid maybe? Those wear heavy armor in some games.

fellyn.5083:

Vayne.8563:

fellyn.5083:

Vayne.8563:

fellyn.5083:

Anthony.7219:

lol, clipping issues/etc. isn’t why MOST people aren’t playing a Charr engineer.

So you managed to ask everyone who plays the game and is not playing a charr character how they feel on the subject?

Impressive.

I don’t know. I seem to remember reading stuff about humans in most MMOs being the most played race. I’m pretty sure that the further something diverges from a human, the less people play it.

I should try to find the references, but it’s late.

All I know is that I’ve seen quite a few comments from people who said they rerolled their charr because of all the clipping issues (mostly tail and horns/main) and armor stretching over the last year.

I’m am in no delusions that these comments represent any sort of majority or even a minority but at the end of the day it doesn’t matter who plays what or what their reasoning is/was.

It’s pure laziness and they should be held accountable for it. It really is that simple. I fear the kitten storm that will take place when they make a new beastlike race (lookin at you tengu). If they can’t get it right a year after release they won’t bother getting it right in the future.

Having more work to do than you can do in a requisite amount of time does not equal laziness. It equals being understaffed. You can call them lazy if you want, but really,. how do you know? Are you suggesting they’re not hard at work on other things? And if they are hard at work, are they really lazy?

See, that’s the problem. We know they are hard at work. Making things no one wants. Like new back item #132 (which looks terrible on charr, surprise surprise).

And I call them lazy because they said it’s not worth their time to deal with the charr issues.

Anthony.7219:

Charr are fugly. It goes beyond a few clipping issues, they’re a messy, (now I feel like im being racist), awkward, boring race to play.

Thanks for sticking to the discussion instead of telling a bunch of strangers your personal preferences for what you like to play in video games (which has nothing to do with the topic that’s being discussed).

Lol, you’re welcome. Touchy much? It has everything to do with the topic. I’m saying that what the op thinks is a major issue, isn’kittens a discussion forum, I can voice my opinion if I want to, thanks.

Humans just have the fewest things to DISlike. I spent more time choosing my race in this game than any other, and it comes down to things like the history behind the race, the beauty of the home city, the gods, the armor, the physical size of the race (some people worry that being too large would block views in a dungeon). I almost chose Sylvari but I hate the grove. And Centaurs, I wanted to fight the Centaurs.

Charr were the least played race from launch, it isn’t completely a clipping issue.

fellyn.5083:

Vayne.8563:

fellyn.5083:

Anthony.7219:

lol, clipping issues/etc. isn’t why MOST people aren’t playing a Charr engineer.

So you managed to ask everyone who plays the game and is not playing a charr character how they feel on the subject?

Impressive.

I don’t know. I seem to remember reading stuff about humans in most MMOs being the most played race. I’m pretty sure that the further something diverges from a human, the less people play it.

I should try to find the references, but it’s late.

All I know is that I’ve seen quite a few comments from people who said they rerolled their charr because of all the clipping issues (mostly tail and horns/main) and armor stretching over the last year.

I’m am in no delusions that these comments represent any sort of majority or even a minority but at the end of the day it doesn’t matter who plays what or what their reasoning is/was.

It’s pure laziness and they should be held accountable for it. It really is that simple. I fear the kitten storm that will take place when they make a new beastlike race (lookin at you tengu). If they can’t get it right a year after release they won’t bother getting it right in the future.

Charr are fugly. It goes beyond a few clipping issues, they’re a messy, (now I feel like im being racist), awkward, boring race to play.

fellyn.5083:

Anthony.7219:

lol, clipping issues/etc. isn’t why MOST people aren’t playing a Charr engineer.

So you managed to ask everyone who plays the game and is not playing a charr character how they feel on the subject?

Impressive.

All I’m saying is that there are much bigger issues with the race/class than the few tiny issues you’re complaining about.

lol, clipping issues/etc. isn’t why MOST people aren’t playing a Charr engineer.

In general, I hate micro-transactions and in game stores and the like, but I hardly feel ripped off by them. I have spent about $60 on dye packs (its an addiction, they get each of us with something different, darn you!) but thats about it. I’ve also had family stuff keep me from playing for 4 months. If the game had a subscription fee I’d be long gone right now instead of getting back into the swing of things. I’ve spent less than I would with a subscription fee, and I get to come back into the game without paying another $15 up front.

At least they’re very consistent about making the gem store optional and giving you alternative ways to obtain all the content. Its not their fault you really want that new hair style. Should have made a human that looks like yourself like I did, then you wouldn’t need the new hair kit.

If grinding isn’t fun then why are so many people doing it? I sit here as a casual player and read one post about how ArenaNet has sold out and introduced mindless grinds for every post I hear about someone who has finished the game and only logs in for Living Story content.

The truth is that I enjoy having something (for me, exotic gear) to work towards, but I also enjoy the game as I’m working towards those rewards. Not only that, when I log in, I feel like I have many options of things I could be doing.

That, to me, is fun.

I’m more casual because people won’t let me play as much as I want, and compared to many MMOs (I’ve play SWG, Lineage 2, GW, City of Heroes, WoW, Aion, Rift, SWTOR) this game has TONS to do.

WvW, I’ve specced my character around WvW because I find it the most fun.

Guess I’ll start by saying I’m a long time casual-medium player of many MMOs including GW, WoW, and tons of others that aren’t worth mentioning.

I kind of agree. Have a level 80 guardian and since I created him I’ve been changing weapons/skills/traits in an effort to constantly be better even though the game allows me to be “good” (but not great) right from the start. I think they’ve hit a pretty good balance there.

The reason it works for me is because I ~Love~ some skills in Guardian (mainly the shield weapon and its attached skills, and concecrations) so much that I’m constantly working to create a build to fit them in. I end up coming up with build after build that is better and better, but they rarely (if ever) have the skills I want to use in them.

A lot of the other classes I’ve tried though, I don’t see those skills that I love, so its just a mishmash of crap. If I was determined to level up a Mesmer, for instance, I’d probably just end up looking up a good build on the internet and going with it, but I’d be so bored I wouldn’t play then.

I think the team has done a fairly good job of making most skills viable where in GW they simply weren’t. I also think they’ve done a good job of making more aspects of the game accessible by everyone playing (interrupts and conditions for example) that were so difficult and confusing to some players they were just frustrating.

The system still needs work. I would love to see options to chose from for each weapon. It really sucks when you’re thinking to yourself “I love the greatsword, but with this class, in order to use a greatsword, I have to be twirling like an idiot”.

Really, the game is impeccably balanced, the biggest problem is the lack of options.

I think its the best system I’ve seen though. Rift had too many options, other games have so many skills that are all available and everyone had the same ones… Boring… I’m sick of that system. Original GW I found frustrating because there were so FEW buttons (I was playing Ranger and after my pet there were 5 buttons left). Now at least I have 1-5 (despite some hating how they’re selected) — 6-10 (Elites need to be better, I end up using the boring recharge my virtues button, yawn) F1, F2, F3, {F4 on some} dodge, weapons swap on some… Its actually a great system.

Draco.2806:

Anthony.7219:

ITS A GAME.

The whole point is to keep you busy. The whole point of keeping you busy is to keep the servers full so the game is more attractive to new buyers, and so the gem store has customers.

So basically a glorified slot machine.

That’s why I wasn’t working on that assumption. GW2 was advertised as “different”, after all.

(Doesn’t mean it is…)

99.9% of the game IS different.

You’ve just finished that part!

LOL, come on folks, I’ll give you an example from before (some) of your time.

The game: Star Wars Galaxies. The year: I dunno, 1999 or something?

Mechanic? Max out a character with the promise of possibly being able to become an (unavailable hard-mode (1 death only)) jedi.

People were playing like mad, maxing out a character, wiping the character, maxing out again. Entire servers went without seeing a single Jedi EVER.

What was the point? Couldn’t everyone become a Jedi? Nope… but it kept people busy.

ITS A GAME.

The whole point is to keep you busy. The whole point of keeping you busy is to keep the servers full so the game is more attractive to new buyers, and so the gem store has customers.

Making the item available for a bajillion karma isn’t going to accomplish the same thing a single RNG is accomplishing.

Draco.2806:

Anthony.7219:

Also, can someone please show me where the law of large numbers says that if you roll a 1000 sided dice a certain number of times you’ll roll a 73?

I was about to type up something with my limited knowledge, but then I remembered a saying…

“If you think you understand statistics, you don’t understand statistics.”

Anthony.7219:

If you go on this dungeon run 6905 times, just under 1% of people will not have the drop. STILL A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER.

Yep!

There’s no such thing as absolute certainty in statistics, too. There are only ways to calculate certainty and probable value of error, and those aren’t guaranteed to be true either.

One way or another, you need some way to mitigate the randomness of the system. In MMOs this usually means Crafting: the logic is, even though you might have missed out on an Epic Drop by the time you should’ve had it, at least you have the materials to craft it by then.

Ditto for Trading Post.

I think others here have already hit it on the head though, Karma, Laurels, non-binding loot sold on AH, these all provide alternative ways to get gear with the STATS you want, they just don’t provide a way to get the specific PIECE you want. I don’t think they care if someone ran a dungeon 1000 times and never got a specific piece. It is gambling, and it is working as intended. It is put in at the top tier because it gives a real-life feeling and goal for top-end players to work towards. This is a game after all, I’d be more concerned if someone were spending hundreds on AH dye packs (I think Arenanet should cut people off after a while) than someone running a dungeon too many times.

Draco.2806:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

That’s just a theory based on the assumption that any random number rolled enough times will average close to an expected number.

Right.

I would like to draw your attention to the fact the Law of Large Numbers is an established fact, not a theory.

This is actually kind of a big deal. It’s the foundation of the entire field of Science.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

If you get a Precursor in your first 100 attempts, your personal views would be that RNG is favorable, thus that is the average for that player. If another person attempts 5,000 forgings, and yet doesn’t get a Precursor, their personal view would be that it’s impossible.

Yep.

That’s what my whole point is about: if you select a very low probability, it will take an enormous amount of attempts before it averages out and becomes “fair”.

A six-sided die is the most common example, and it’s something you can test at home with some pen and paper. It’s a random roll. You don’t know where it’ll end up. But if you keep track of the numbers, it will come closer and closer to average the more you roll – by 100th attempt, it’s most likely you’ll have to keep track using decimal places after 3.

It’s totally random, but somehow it averages out.

That’s the whole point of random numbers in games: sooner or later, they average out and become “fair”. Those “fair” numbers is what’s ultimately used in all the calculations and all the discussions of combat balance and item rarity. The problem is, when you’ve set the probability too low in your estimations of rarity of something, it might take a couple thousand years for it to get to that point – and until then, it’s all up to luck.

And luck isn’t fair.

Anthony.7219:

What specific things in this game are random drops only (sorry, long time MMO player, casual in this game)? Almost everything is token-based purchase.

Off the top of my head: crafting materials, blue, green, rare, exotic, ascended weapons/gear, unique skins.

Yes, but my point was that you can obtain options (although not certain specific pieces) at the same stat level for all of these things. Even some of the drops are common enough that while YOU might not get them, you’re guaranteed to get them if you do enough runs because you accumulate a little thing called “gold” that you can buy them with, so only soul-bound or extremely expensive items should be considered in this super-rare drop category. (IMO)

Also, can someone please show me where the law of large numbers says that if you roll a 1000 sided dice a certain number of times you’ll roll a 73? It says they’ll average out to 500, not that you’ll roll a 73. The graph of the probability of you rolling that number will slowly reach 100% but never actually hit it.

Chance of not rolling a number = {999/1000} ^ (N)
Where 999/1000 is the chance of the loot NOT dropping (easier to do it this way because you don’t have to account for multiple drops for the same person) and N is the number of times it could have dropped.

If you go on this dungeon run 6905 times, just under 1% of people will not have the drop. STILL A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER.

What specific things in this game are random drops only (sorry, long time MMO player, casual in this game)? Almost everything is token-based purchase.

Galen Grey.4709:

Anthony.7219:

snip…

Tried the new Tequatil in an overflow pug, killed the old one back in the day, but this new one was timed and had 90% health left… That was fun, so I don’t get wings on my back, big deal.
snip..

First of all welcome to the club and congratualtions

Secondly ohh you can still get the wings without beating tequalt as well…
you need to complete 8 achievements related to big bosses. There are 5 I believe that are available all the time which you can do. they’re just a little scavenger hunt in 3 zones. Just look for the boss week tab under achievements to get started.

Every day there is also a daily achievement that applies to that list of 8. Its generally kill any dragon, doesnt have to be tequalt or just simply participate in the tequalt fight no need to win.

So if you want them you can still have them really

Thanks!

No, I don’t want to do that, those are ugly and I’d much rather have anything else, but that’s one thing I love about this game. Researched ascended trinkets after reading all the ******** on here and found out they cost laurels… So you mean I could buy one in a few months if I did a daily thing every couple days? I know there are two versions and blah blah blah… I don’t see how casual players can really complain when this game is more accessible than any other MMO I’ve ever played, and at the same time maintains a steady hard-core fanbase (which is VITAL to keeping the casuals, people need to be playing when I log in or its no fun)

The only point I agree with is in relation to the dynamic events. Now, I don’t want people to be doing them as end game content (zerg/farming/etc), so the laurel system, combined with the karma system encourages the casual who has hit 80 to re-play these areas. I know I played through them in order to get some item skins (dark armor) and will now play them while I’m trying to get my exotics (laurels/karma). Its a delicate balance because you want to see people out playing when you’re leveling up a new guy, but you don’t want it to be zerg zerg zerg like it was when the game came out. Combine that with the fact that you can join a guild and ask for help… I think its a bit short, but its close to working as intended. Perhaps they can add some item mats or non combat items for sale by karma on vendors at the end of a dynamic event chain?