Guild Wars 2

Geotherma.2395:

Kain Francois.4328:

After 131 chests, this is how I feel like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlcqWQVVuU

I FINALLY GOT MY TICKET!!!!!!!!!

Trick was to stop opening it on my Warrior and open it on my Ranger like my friend did. I am now superstitious enough to believe Rangers get better drops and chests have DR when opened on the same toon.

So was it worth it? HELL YEAH! (Though I do not advise anyone make the same mistake as me.)

As promised, my storage:

You need a maid, badly :P

I wish I could sell my black lion crap. Do they even do anything special?

What is a good way to get my money’s worth and, well… Use them? Which resources should I save them for?

Sickle= Omnoms + Truffles?
Axe= Ancient wood?
Pick= Orichalcum?

Any rich ori in the game?

Kain Francois.4328:

Geotherma.2395:

Kain Francois.4328:

After 131 chests, this is how I feel like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlcqWQVVuU

I FINALLY GOT MY TICKET!!!!!!!!!

Trick was to stop opening it on my Warrior and open it on my Ranger like my friend did. I am now superstitious enough to believe Rangers get better drops and chests have DR when opened on the same toon.

So was it worth it? HELL YEAH! (Though I do not advise anyone make the same mistake as me.)

As promised, my storage:

You need a maid, badly :P

I wish I could sell my black lion crap. Do they even do anything special?

What is a good way to get my money’s worth and, well… Use them? Which resources should I save them for?

Sickle= Omnoms + Truffles?
Axe= Ancient wood?
Pick= Orichalcum?

Any rich ori in the game?

You could use them on any character, they are just free gathering tools really. Sometimes I use them for omnom and ori and mithril and trees for bags etc. I have almost 2 bank rows of em lol..

I use the mystery tonics to mystic forge them into whatever I want, which i use for events and fun. I have so many bl things now tho… I wish I could do something with them all like give to guildies lol.. What use do i have for 105 Fine Trans stones >.>

Kain Francois.4328:

After 131 chests, this is how I feel like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlcqWQVVuU

I FINALLY GOT MY TICKET!!!!!!!!!

Trick was to stop opening it on my Warrior and open it on my Ranger like my friend did. I am now superstitious enough to believe Rangers get better drops and chests have DR when opened on the same toon.

So was it worth it? HELL YEAH! (Though I do not advise anyone make the same mistake as me.)

As promised, my storage:

Hehe i was live when this guy got his ticket. A yell of glory with caps on whisp lol
Gz bro, enjoy it
So far, you was lucky, “just” 131 hehe

I opened 10 more chest, and am now sitting at 3 tickets out of 18 chests.

RNG baby.

I called it after about 50 chests with no ticket including bonus keys. Stopped being fun.

Had to spend 115g to receive one ticket. After having spent +/- 300 gold, I received my second ticket yesterday. A guildie of mine has roughly spent 250g by now and still has’nt gotten a single ticket. Honestly feels like getting a slap in the face, when reading about people that got lucky on their first attempts…

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

Maybe so, but “I spent $200 and got nothing” is all I need to know not to buy any keys. No fancy math required.

Lily Miranda.5407:

John Smith.4610:

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

Maybe so, but “I spent $200 and got nothing” is all I need to know not to buy any keys. No fancy math required.

Yep. Funnily it doesn’t stop the entire playerbase to gamble, ruining this Anet attempt to make money, changing how things works, here.
“You’re the only one ruining yourself”

Sander.8516:

Had to spend 115g to receive one ticket. After having spent +/- 300 gold, I received my second ticket yesterday. A guildie of mine has roughly spent 250g by now and still has’nt gotten a single ticket. Honestly feels like getting a slap in the face, when reading about people that got lucky on their first attempts…

Meanwhile ANet must be ecstatic being able to obliterate that much mud-coin from the game with a single set of weapon skins. It’s nice to see inflation getting slapped in the face for a change.

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

mage.3570:

0 keys, 0 tickets, and am proud of myself.

I wish there were more like us

There are

Svarty.8019:

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

mage.3570:

0 keys, 0 tickets, and am proud of myself.

I wish there were more like us

There are

I’m sure there are LOTS of us out there….

You people never learn, eeh?
“Omg, halloween skins are soooo RNG! I’ll never buy keys again!”
5 months later…
“Omg, fused skins are soooo RNG! I’ll never buy keys again!”

Asomal.6453:

You people never learn, eeh?
“Omg, halloween skins are soooo RNG! I’ll never buy keys again!”
5 months later…
“Omg, fused skins are soooo RNG! I’ll never buy keys again!”

I don’t even think that’s the point, least not for me. I never said i wouldn’t buy keys and i bought $200 worth for a ticket. I didn’t get one and so therefore that’s pretty crap. I’d actually be much happier if i didn’t get 3 hairstyle kits and 2 total makeover kits or at the very least be able to sell them back to the store for more keys. It’s not even buyer beware and it would be nice if you don’t want a product you could actually do something with it. I personally don’t care about RNG for this stuff, but the pre’s are a totally different story. There should be a legendary gambler title to go along with it, least then it would actually feel like it was worth"something" tossing all your G down the toilet.

Also, i wonder if it’s only the new chests that drop the tickets. I bought all mine on the TP and you’d think after almost 200 tries i’d get at least one. If so, someone should really stipulate that, otherwise i just basically wasted $200 bucks…

They should put an extra warning pop up before buying keys ‘Warning there is a high probability that you could spend over 200 dollars and not get an item you want nor is worth anything are you happy to proceed with this gamble?’ and if the person has accepted it, it then buys the keys. If not they can cancel doing so. At least there is a fair warning of the risk involved.

“Warning: Random is Random and Rare means Rare”

They did say rare. But there’s rare and there’s RARE. They should let the buyers know the odds. It’s one thing to gamble for 1 in 10 odds, another for 1 in 100. People are entitled to know which it is before they spend their money. It’s odd, and somewhat suspicious, that ANet refuses to let the buyers know what the drop rate is.

Astral Projections.7320:

They did say rare. But there’s rare and there’s RARE. They should let the buyers know the odds. It’s one thing to gamble for 1 in 10 odds, another for 1 in 100. People are entitled to know which it is before they spend their money. It’s odd, and somewhat suspicious, that ANet refuses to let the buyers know what the drop rate is.

They have told us drop rates at least once – for Final Rest.

…1 in 2000.

“Rare” does in fact mean “Rare”. Like, completely not kidding “rare”.

1 free key from story = 1 free fused :P

Astral Projections.7320:

They did say rare. But there’s rare and there’s RARE. They should let the buyers know the odds. It’s one thing to gamble for 1 in 10 odds, another for 1 in 100. People are entitled to know which it is before they spend their money. It’s odd, and somewhat suspicious, that ANet refuses to let the buyers know what the drop rate is.

Pretty sure everything in Vegas has known odds (or at the least calculable), not sure why we can’t get the same treatment. People are spending money on some unknown chance (i’ve gotten the pink quaggan backpack at least). Saying rare chance just doesn’t cut it. Pretty sure i’ve opened close to 200 chests, that’s umm more than rare. I’ve tossed 200 short bows in the forge, is it THAT rare a chance? What’s more rare than rare? Obviously rare means a lot of different things in this game, rare items that are guaranteed to drop from world event chests aren’t really that rare anymore.

MikeRocks.9243:

laharl.8435:

Literally no one here would have expected this to be statistically accurate in the first place. Of course he’s spot on, just as everyone else is spot on, but they didn’t feel the need to voice the obvious. It’s simply a curiosity thing, get over yourself.

Then what you’re saying is that this is just a RNG kitten session disguised as science?

I can accept that.

Uh, no. No one is disguising it as science. Again, no one would have expected this topic to present a statistically accurate representation in the first place. But I guess things that are obvious to many aren’t so obvious to others. People that generally see the obvious don’t feel the need to voice it.

munkiman.3068:

Pretty sure everything in Vegas has known odds (or at the least calculable), not sure why we can’t get the same treatment.

Do slot machines really have known odds? Or is it just from people reporting their results (Just like this threads)

How about those games which don’t rely on strict probability? (Tossing something in the air, hoping it lands on a specific spot).

I dunno about you, but when I go to Vegas, I don’t go there looking to know the odds of everything. It’s a very strange mindset to me.

EDIT: By the way, the analogy with Vegas fails because in Vegas, you put in money and potentially get money back. Whereas in this case, people want a very specific reward that money cannot buy.

Ursan.7846:

munkiman.3068:

Pretty sure everything in Vegas has known odds (or at the least calculable), not sure why we can’t get the same treatment.

Do slot machines really have known odds? Or is it just from people reporting their results (Just like this threads)

The only games with odds known to the players are card games and video games that are analogues of real life games. (Edit) I suppose Roulette and the wheel of fortune type games have known odds also. Craps sort of does, but there are folks whose rolls are not entirely random…

This is why I only played the vanilla video poker machines on my trade show breaks – I didn’t make my fortune, but it was pretty sweet to get the free drinks and come away a few bucks ahead.

The vig on slot machines can go anywhere from 0.1% to 10%, so you can’t really infer the probabilities based on the payouts. All that publishing the probabilities would do is make the folks that don’t understand probability complain when they use X keys and don’t get a ticket.

Every game (and you can google it) that’s available in Vegas (or anywhere really) have instantly calculable odds (even blackjack you can ask the deck count and figure out the odds). In many cases odds are posted right at the table or on the boards. Even the lotto has odds, they are horrible odds, but they are readily available ones.

So yes, odds here are a complete unknown, literally.

Learned my lesson from Halloween/Wintersday and immediately sold all of my stashed Black Lion Chests when the update hit for double their usual value.

^You would think that people would no longer make the mistake of spam buying Black Lion Chests whenever something new can be found in the chest.

I dunno about you, but when I go to Vegas, I don’t go there looking to know the odds of everything. It’s a very strange mindset to me.

Strange mindset?

Statistics is college level mathematics my friend.

So far, I’m sitting at 60 chests opened, using 40$ CAN and 25g converted to gems. have yet to see a ticket.

Never been so disappointed in a game before. Unknown statistics aside, this is a crash course in “loss aversion” and “perfect information” —economics 101. I’m just really insulted that ANET has forced me to concede defeat in a game I paid for, and continue to throw money at for an arbitrary trinket. A trinket which would generate more income if it was just on the gem store at a common DLC cost.
I’m definitely frustrated by this process.

First off, let me express my understanding. I understand that unlike other ‘unnamed’ MMORPGs, GW2 doesn’t charge a monthly service fee and yet still puts out new content. It has to pay employees to develop new game play for us to enjoy, and ANet needs a source to generate income from. I suspect when they’re not making enough money they release these deceptive cash cows in an attempt to generate a quick surplus off of their real fans—the ones who spend enough time playing the game to actually see the reward of spending actual currency on the game.

Here’s the issue—short term gains. You’ve done your market research, your consulting psychologist has proven that myself, and other supporters of the game have a bias to disassociate loss aversion principles when it comes to valuation of arbitrary currencies (further increased by the intermediary step of “gems.”) And you must be kitten proud of yourself for knowing you’re not going to lose any noticeable amount of business from this repeatable process.

But why in gods name would you make the drop rate so stupidly low? I’m not buying the kitten skin because no one else will have it! I’m buying it because I enjoy playing a game based around esthetics and personal appearance (even if your design team isn’t very creative, and the selection pool is so limited, it took me less than an hour to research the perfect outfit for me, and 2 days to farm the outfit itself)

I’m so frustrated beyond belief that if it weren’t for having a group of close personal friends in my guild of 5 people, who relied on me to do the research, and challenge them to play the end-game content, I’d have deleted my game and started demanding my money refunded for the gems I’ve wasted.

This is unbelievable Anet. If you’re struggling, and this is your solution, you’ve dug a hole money won’t get you out of. And if you’re doing fine, and the motivation wasn’t to generate income… than you need to fire the project manager who lead this “fused” customer experience fiasco. You won’t see another dime from me, and you won’t have my business for future games. You are EA, and you turned Maxis into a cash cow at the expense of it’s loyal customers.

You might not believe me but got it on the first chest, didn’t even know it existed. Just finished the lvl 10 personal Q and used the key on one of my guardian’s chest.
Yay?

It’s comments from certain Devs that make me stay away from sub-forums like this for a reason.

ANet knows the ‘drop rate’ and will not release this information. That is their choice and I am fine with that.

The only way for us players to derive a perceived drop rate is by polling. Polling on this forum will yield better results than just polling a guild or server. The results are likely not to be extremely accurate. But they will still be useful.

History has shown me that a lot of the ‘odds’ players have derived for things have been pretty close to accurate. The chance to salvage a glob from a rare. The chance to upgrade 4 rares in the MF. The chance for a mystic clover recipe to work. While not ‘statiscally accurate’, the ‘odds’ derived from other players is close enough to assist me in me making choices on how I wish to play.

This is a forum dedicated to players playing Guild Wars 2. It is ok to point out that polls like these are likely to be inaccurate, but to be constantly lectured about statistics and economic principles is a little much. Most of the time it comes accross in a very condescending manner. I don’t log onto Economic discussion forums for a reason. I come to these forums, and this sub-forum, to glean information about the game and the BLTC.

Calae.1738:

Strange mindset?

Statistics is college level mathematics my friend.

I’m confused. I go to Vegas to have fun. Not to calculate odds of games. Are you implying that everyone who has learned statistics has some kind of urge to calculate the probability of a jackpot when playing slot machines?

15 chests 1 ticket

First chest I opened with a story-earned key, and I got a ticket. Then opened 10 more chests and got squat.

I did use around 22 keys + around 6-7 more from the chests and got no ticket.
on the brighter side i didnt have to buy those keys with gems.
they were stockpiled from the Council commendations exchange from 2012.
I did hold onto them to use when some good item was introduced but RNG… grrr
only useful thing i got form 30 odd chest was 1 BL salvage Kit & a 3 Mini Pack rest was all crap.

140 chests here – 1 ticket – got one after 110 or so but burnt the rest of my keys for other things like the unlimited banker / TP guy / merch.

keep on posting these results!

Pretty sure i’m in around 200, i may have posted this before. However, people getting chest are buying them off the TP right?

It would go a long way towards removing the sour taste from folks’ mouth if they were to give a ticket to the peeps who spent over a hundred bucks on the store. Just a suggestion in the nature of “fair play” and customer retention. Yes, they did say it was rare. Yes, it was those players’ faults for gambling. No, this is not treating those players with respect.

In my own subjective, non-key buying opinion. I don’t mess with RNG. I find it very unpalatable that people are spending 300 bucks on stuff and not getting what they were seeking. If I’m not careful, I will get angry. But they WERE warned. Ugh, I don’t even like acknowledging that. It’s still wrong, in my own trivial little opinion.

Addendum: I think the money part of it is very quantifiable. People are probably very happy with the profit. I was just curious, so I called home and explained the situation to my wife (who doesn’t and never will play an MMO and is generally clueless): people warned very clearly, spent X anyways, no tickets. Her reaction: “Dude, that is just wrong of them.” If I have to go through gymnastics of justification to explain why it’s NOT wrong, there’s.. uh, something wrong. Again, my opinion, but this fails the “evil” test and you missed it.

I don’t care about getting one of these fused weapon skins at all, so I am biased on this issue.

But, imo, if it is an average of 100 chests per 1 ticket, they might as well just sell the tickets for the money equivalent of $100 USD.

As crazy as that is for an in game skin, it still keeps the skin rare (as arenanet intends) ,the people who REALLY want it can get it, and arenanet still gets the load of cash they are obviously going for.

It just currently seems like the people who typically get them dont even really care that much about them. I am just glad the halloween skins were tradeable.. because I just bought them with gold instead of RNG’in it.

30+ chests and 0 tickets. This is just “great”.

Sucks this skins really fit my fire themed charr with his volcanus and these weapons but I despise RNG, reason I don’t have a legendary.

Decide to buy another 10 keys and got the ticket around 8th chest.
So total box opened are about 70 boxes

Someone may have said this already, but a big reason why surveys can be inaccurate is because you only get data from the people that want to do the survey. In this case I imagine that there will be an unnatural proportion of people who were either very lucky opening a small number of chests or very unlucky opening a large amount and felt compelled to tell someone about it.

I imagine the best way to get a good average from this thread is to only take data from those people who opened hundreds of chests at once, as they will likely want to post their results whether they got a skin or not.

Solution: Convert boosters to tokens. Happy customer?

haha listen to these sad kids… ive opened about 15 and got one

been playing for about 2 weeks

Got a key at 39th ticket.
So: 40 tickets : 1 key

72 Chests, 2 tickets.

That’s why I do not buy them.

I hate the idea of PAY-2-RNG.

I’d rather have those skins purchaseable for 250-300gems each instead of buying 124839 keys for 926348716 and getting 5 tokens:P

Midguard.7603:

So far, I’m sitting at 60 chests opened, using 40$ CAN and 25g converted to gems. have yet to see a ticket.

Never been so disappointed in a game before. Unknown statistics aside, this is a crash course in “loss aversion” and “perfect information” —economics 101. I’m just really insulted that ANET has forced me to concede defeat in a game I paid for, and continue to throw money at for an arbitrary trinket. A trinket which would generate more income if it was just on the gem store at a common DLC cost.
I’m definitely frustrated by this process.

First off, let me express my understanding. I understand that unlike other ‘unnamed’ MMORPGs, GW2 doesn’t charge a monthly service fee and yet still puts out new content. It has to pay employees to develop new game play for us to enjoy, and ANet needs a source to generate income from. I suspect when they’re not making enough money they release these deceptive cash cows in an attempt to generate a quick surplus off of their real fans—the ones who spend enough time playing the game to actually see the reward of spending actual currency on the game.

Here’s the issue—short term gains. You’ve done your market research, your consulting psychologist has proven that myself, and other supporters of the game have a bias to disassociate loss aversion principles when it comes to valuation of arbitrary currencies (further increased by the intermediary step of “gems.”) And you must be kitten proud of yourself for knowing you’re not going to lose any noticeable amount of business from this repeatable process.

But why in gods name would you make the drop rate so stupidly low? I’m not buying the kitten skin because no one else will have it! I’m buying it because I enjoy playing a game based around esthetics and personal appearance (even if your design team isn’t very creative, and the selection pool is so limited, it took me less than an hour to research the perfect outfit for me, and 2 days to farm the outfit itself)

I’m so frustrated beyond belief that if it weren’t for having a group of close personal friends in my guild of 5 people, who relied on me to do the research, and challenge them to play the end-game content, I’d have deleted my game and started demanding my money refunded for the gems I’ve wasted.

This is unbelievable Anet. If you’re struggling, and this is your solution, you’ve dug a hole money won’t get you out of. And if you’re doing fine, and the motivation wasn’t to generate income… than you need to fire the project manager who lead this “fused” customer experience fiasco. You won’t see another dime from me, and you won’t have my business for future games. You are EA, and you turned Maxis into a cash cow at the expense of it’s loyal customers.

Sorry but why do you blame ANet for your own faults?

I knew very well that tokens are RNG and decided it’s not worth the money and RNG factored in. So I didn’t buy keys and have no regrets. You knew very well it is RNG and did it anyways.

You made conscious decision. If you didn’t well, all the more reason to blame yourself.

ANet PAY 2 RNG model is BAD. Yes. But you don’t have to use it in the first place.

TL;DR

ANet didn’t force you to do anything. You yourself did it and knew the risk.

Asomal.6453:

You people never learn, eeh?
“Omg, halloween skins are soooo RNG! I’ll never buy keys again!”
5 months later…
“Omg, fused skins are soooo RNG! I’ll never buy keys again!”

While people spent hundreds of $ for keys during halloween i bought skin on AH for 30 silver. Hurr hurr hurr

150 odd chests opened.

Nada.

I think the 1 pink quaggan backpack I got out of it was the only thing that even registered on my “oh, that’s kind of nice” radar.

For the love of God can those black lion harvesting tools please be stacked? Even deleting them is a pain in the bum.

Killyox.3950:

That’s why I do not buy them.

I hate the idea of PAY-2-RNG.

I’d rather have those skins purchaseable for 250-300gems each…

I’m sure you would. It’d be kitten terrible idea for ANet, but you’d make out brilliantly.

Lets reality check that thought:

Supposing the drop rate is 1 in 50 (and I’m now leaning toward that as more likely than my previous off-the-cuff 1 in 100), ANet is setting the value of their design time at something more like 4500 gems per ticket. (300? pfft, no.)

So lets throw a real proposition out to them and see if you’re still so interested:

“Hey ANet, would you consider selling the Fused weapon tickets in the store for 4500 gems?”