Guild Wars 2

Anyone know what the new spawn time is?

I’d like an invite as well, as an Arah noob.

It clearly says in the item description that you have a chance at rare, uncommon, or common dye. The lower tier ones don’t even give a chance at a rare.

80/20 is very realistic, actually. As has been demonstrated in multiple sufficiently large samples. Randomness like this can still be predicted very accurately over the long run, which is exactly what Morphemass is doing. Short run samples will vary wildly, but in the long run the sample mean will approach the true rate.

Hint: look up the Central Limit Theorem.

Edit: typos, thanks to my phone.

They absolutely CAN be obtained by using rares.

The comparison to a roulette table is only partially correct. You’re right in that the odds are stacked against the forge users. However, in some cases the market hasn’t fully adapted and there are consistent profits, even with the poor odds, to be made until the market catches up.

To return to your analogy, it’s like betting at the same roulette table as lots of other people, but you got your chips at a discount, so your EV is higher than the people who paid full price for their chips. Of course that still doesn’t always mean there is a net profit to be made, but until the market catches up, there are still a few opportunities out there.

That’s the attitude!

SlimJim, I think you’re a bit confused about what “odds” actually means. 0 odds of anything? Really?

This is not a bragging thread. I just wanted to give my appreciation for the clock tower jumping puzzle, and point out that despite the massive amount of complaints, there are many of us that actually enjoyed it quite thoroughly.

Thanks! Here’s hoping for similar challenges in the future!

I don’t think they intended every “average” player to have a legendary.

Using an extremely conservative estimate of 10% chance for an exotic, the probability that you get 0 exotics in 457 attempts is:

0.0000000000000000000012269

If we use a more accurate estimate of 18%-20%, that probability only decreases.

Were you using level 80 rates?

Why is there only one staff on the list? Have others just not been discovered yet?

Just wondering if this is at all possible. It’s quite annoying having the same events and skill points bugged day after day after day. I realize you all are working hard to fix them, but in the meantime it sure would be nice to have a reset each night so the events will at least work occasionally between patches.

The Plinx event chain in Cursed Shore has been bugged for a few days on my server, Yak’s Bend (US). Yesterday I switched to my guild’s other home server, Gunnar’s Hold (EU), and found the same thing there. Mr. Plinx is napping in the desert.

Is this bugged on all servers currently? It was bugged last week, too, but began working again after the most resent reset.

Thanks! Last question, I promise:

Did you use all of the same rare greatswords, i.e. Carrion Krait Slayer? Or did you mix and match as much as possible? Obviously when you use rares that come out of the forge they’ll mostly be different ones, but what did you use to start off?

Oh, one more question:

Other than your current streak without a Dusk, does your data seem pretty consistent across the whole timeline of your sample?

Thanks for that data, Mr Spooky! That’s the type of sample size we’ve been needing. And grats on the Dusks.

Did you do your forges at a specific time during the day? Is it confirmed that this affects whether you get Dawn or Dusk?

Catrenna, 6 attempts is too few to determine if the rate is now lower than it used to be. That would be a typical result whether the true rate is 10%, 20%, or even 33%.

Well I’ll be a “happy person” posting to balance things out. Yesterday, I did 8 combines of lvl 80 rare staffs, and 6 of the 8 resulted in exotics (only one was named).

Today, I did 8 more combines, and got 2 exotics.

Obviously not enough to make any conclusions, but just wanted to point out that this method of gathering data is not accurate at all. I was thrilled to get 6 exotics from only 8 combines, but it never occurred to me that “I should go post this on the forums right away!!!” However, if I had gone 0/40 combines, I’d be much more likely to post it asking for changes to be made.

Lackofcheese, getting a rare back and putting it into the forge is still putting a rare into the forge. 272 is the total number of rares I put in the forge, not the number of rares I crafted to begin the process (you’re correct, THAT number would be closer to 222).

For estimating probabilities, we should be using the actual number put into the forge. If, instead, the goal is to decide whether or not you can make a profit, the starting number of rares is probably more relevant.

Well when I last posted, I was 12/60 (exotics/combines), with no precursor. Felt I should update again, though, as I just did 8 more combines, where 6 of them were exotics. One more named: Delusion. I did combine 4 of these exotics, but just got another non-named one.

Current stats: 18 exotics out of 68 rare combines (272 lvl 80 rares), 0 precursors.

60 attempts now with lvl 80 rare staffs. 12 total exotics, 2 of which were named, and 0 precursors. So far I’ve been able to support all of it by selling the exotics I get, but it sounds like I should maybe be putting them in the forge, too.

Oh, all staffs were lvl 80 rares. Sold the exotics I got back.

84 rare staffs in (21 attempts), 0 precursers back. I got 6 exotics, though. 5 were Pearl staffs and one was named. Memory of the Sky, or something like that.

Has anyone seen any type of response on this?

They implemented DR on rendering. You need to stop rendering for a while and experience other parts of the game.

So are some people able to open it?

Yep, I just ran into this, too. Went through the Borderlands puzzle, got both halves of the key, and the vault won’t open (also got ganked while submitting a report in game).

edit: server is Yak’s Bend if that matters.

Will we have to wait until next Tuesday? Or will there be an earlier patch to fix this (and the dungeon rewards)?

Actually it makes very good sense. The more times a random event occurs, the closer the outcome will be to its expected value. You can minimize the variance by using the cheaper recipe and therefore be closer to the true probability of success. This is assuming they have the same probability for success, though.

Thanks. What would be some recommended traits to make up for the lack of bit/toughness if I went full Berserker’s? Or since I’m already a glass cannon, should I just trait for even more dmg, crit, etc?

I have an 80 elementalist with a full MF set for farming events. However, I want to craft another set of exotics for dungeons and WvW, enabling me to contribute more and survive better.

Which stats would you recommend? I mostly use staff right now, and am in the process of redoing my traits to better suit the above contexts. Right now I want to stick with one of the 7 craftable stat combinations.

Thanks!

Cezton.2415:

Report bugged skill points. Several times if needed. Tell others to, as well.

Next time there’s a small patch, more likely than not it will be fixed.

I’ve been reporting and including screenshots for all of these. Of course I don’t expect an immediate fix or anything, but I though certainly some of these would have been fixed by now (the Malchor’s Leap skill point seems to have been a problem the longest).

…with bugs in a video game. I’m finally almost done with the Straits of Devastation zone, but realize that the last point of interest I need can only be gotten during my personal story. So, I pick up where I left off, only to get stuck on the quest Forging the Pact due to a bug. The group of researchers in the cave don’t follow me out. After multiple attempts, I find out it has indeed been bugged for over a week. So, I decide to move on to something else.

I get most of the way through the next zone, Malchor’s Leap, and once again cannot complete the map, this time due to a bugged skill point (that has also been bugged for well over a week).

Getting pretty frustrated, I begin work on the Cursed Shore, but there are TWO bugged skill points on this map preventing completion.

I finally decide to explore a different aspect of the game, and join a WvW map. After an hour or so of some fun pvp action, I realize I’m not far away from zone completion. Of course that would be impossible, though, since I discover ANOTHER bugged skill point here (in the Skritt cave, NW of the map).

I made it all the way to level 80 before I encountered any of these bugs, so I’ve gotten a lot of enjoyment out of the game until recently. I’m not really sure what the point of this thread is, other than to express my frustration with an otherwise excellent game.

What time do the servers usually come back up? They’ve supposedly fixed several of these bugs multiple times, but after just a few people do the events they become bugged again. Right now the only way to get them done is to be one of the first there after a reset.

Don’t get your hopes up…it’s been bugged for well over a week. I figured I’d just work on some map completions while I wait for them to fix the story quest, but 4 zones now that I’ve worked on have bugged skill points and are not able to be completed either. Fun stuff.

Any luck with the overflow? I’m stuck at work so can’t participate.

I think they responded in another thread saying that today’s patch should fix it. Apparently that is not the case, though.

Has anyone tried this since today’s patch? They supposedly had a fix for it. I’m at work so I can’t try til later.

Wolfey.3407:

So, we are going to have to wait till Monday evening for the potential patch? :o

I’m just happy to have a response! I’ll dilly-dally with some other zones, DEs and such until Monday and try it again then. Got all the way to 80 while this was bugged, so might as well wait a couple more days, rather than become more and more frustrated wasting time in this quest.

Restarting the quest did not work for me. It’s a long (and annoying with all of the undead respawning) quest, so I’m not going to just keep trying until we get a response.

I realize that there is already a thread for the “Forging the Pact” story quest bug, but since that thread has been open for a week now with no official response, I thought I’d try a new one.

I can progress the quest up until I find the researchers in the cave, but after the dialog there, Trahearne is the only NPC that follows me towards the exit. The researches help kill the fist 2 grubs that spawn nearby, but once they are out of combat, they all run back to where I found them and stay there.

It is very frustrating being level 80, but not getting to finish the personal storyline because of this bug on a level 62 quest.

Bugged for me also. Wasted way too much time retrying this quest. Like most here, once I find the researchers in the back of the cave, Trahearne is the only one who follows me. The other start to follow, and help combat the first 2 grubs, but after that they all run back to where I found them and stay there.

Please look into this!!