Guys, after 35 attempts today, I got the spark.
Final results are for the dagger:
Attempts: 1088
Exotics received: 218
Legendaries received: 1
Exotic drop rate: 20.04%
Legendary drop rate: 0.09%
Annoyingly, I had prepared all the mats to go to war. Now I’ll have to sell some of it and keep the inscriptions…
Using my jsfiddle, and with the values of found here: http://jsfiddle.net/a6qpsso5/13/
4000 copper for rare value
32000 copper for exotic value
I’m in the money apparently. My spark was 50 gold less than the TP one.
grats, you are now free of the mystic forge, until next time!
Actually, the only reason I’d go back is for money, since I would never by a precursor worth less than the cost of the mats required to make one, and I have all the expensive ones except for the greatsword, which I plan on buying Eternity.
Guys, after 35 attempts today, I got the spark.
Final results are for the dagger:
Attempts: 1088
Exotics received: 218
Legendaries received: 1
Exotic drop rate: 20.04%
Legendary drop rate: 0.09%
Annoyingly, I had prepared all the mats to go to war. Now I’ll have to sell some of it and keep the inscriptions…
Using my jsfiddle, and with the values of found here: http://jsfiddle.net/a6qpsso5/13/
4000 copper for rare value
32000 copper for exotic value
I’m in the money apparently. My spark was 50 gold less than the TP one.
It’s one thing to do the math to see the odds. It’s another to expect that when the number of tries reaches the average number, then you will get it. There is the +/- consideration. Within the group of people trying, how many (in your case) don’t get it after 1000 tries or 2000 tries. You made a basic mistake in thinking that just because you calculated an average, that that average had anything to do with you.
I respect your argument the most. Well done. But like I said, I’m already twice above the expected average. I will squander all of my resources just to even out that stat. And if I lose out, I’m gone.
I expect an outcome based on other people’s experience. If I don’t adhere to that expectation, then I can only conclude that my account is cursed. I’m reasonable, but a .0005 unfavourable difference is unacceptable.
It’s amazing how only one person has sympathy and the rest are in denial. What? Like you guys have more experience than me and have documented it.
Whatever. I’m staying the course. My account is cursed and unless some strange fortune change occurs that evens out the odds, I’m leaving.
On the site you linked, expand the entry titled February 12 2013. It reads:
also noteworthy: i havent gotten a single precursor from the last 7955 Rares. I’ve never done this with the intention of making profit but rather to get a correct dropchance. Still, i didnt expect to make a big loss, which unfortunately happend now.
Seriously, 8k rares, this variance is ridiculous..
How would you compare the precursor forge chance of the person who wrote that thread to your own? Was it
a) Higher than yours
b) Lower than yours
c) Equal to yours
You haven’t read all of the site, partly because you’re not french. You looked at one section and made a conclusion, when, infact, the sum total of all the TRIALS expressed on the website is in the tens of thousands. Not rares crafted, TRIALS.
BTW, I use a mysql database to document it. Precises numbers are 1043 attempts, 209 exotics, for an exotic drop rate of 20.04% with daggers only.
All trials combined: 1788 attempts, 346 exotics, 1 legendary for a legendary dr of .0006 and an exotic dr of .1936
It’s like I said. It’s possible to never get a pre, but at 0.0018 chance from other people’s experience, the odds were in my favour with 1100 attempts.
90% chance is nothing to sneeze at…
I recommend that OP take a class in statistics and read about gambling and chance before getting much older. It will be a supreme help to him to learn about these things.
You’re wrong. Again, it’s technically possible to never get a pre from the mystic forge, but highly unlikely after 1100 attempts.
My beef is: Why me? Why is my account condemned?
One guy who forged 53 precursors calculated that the drop rate using rares is 0.1% or about one every 1000 tries on average. http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1efwu1/just_some_more_mystic_forge_and_precursor/ If true then that means that 50% of people trying are not going to get a precursor by the 1000th try, but will take longer. Perhaps even substantially longer.
I had the rate at 0.0018. But even at 0.001, I’m well below that stat.
I recommend that OP take a class in statistics and read about gambling and chance before getting much older. It will be a supreme help to him to learn about these things.
You’re wrong. Again, it’s technically possible to never get a pre from the mystic forge, but highly unlikely after 1100 attempts.
My beef is: Why me? Why is my account condemned?
I’m a logic person. After buying 3 precursors, I have done the math, using statistics and the experience of other people to persuade myself to use the mystic forge instead of buying the precursors. Basically, the odds of getting a pre is .2 % from rares. Using a cumulative binomial calculator, the odds of getting 1 or more pre from 350 attempts is 50%….
Well, after 1100 attempts, I’ve convinced myself to quit. I know.. 100 trolls will say good ridden. Whatever. I’ll never buy an Anet game or all other affiliates. You have wasted my time enough already…
You also had a 99.8% chance of not getting a precursor from rares, and a 50% chance of not getting 1 or more pre from 350 attempts according to your statistics. How’s that for perspective?
Statistics don’t guarantee anything, it’s just there to inform you.
That’s not how stats work. Imagine you flip a coin 10 times. What are the odds you don’t get heads? Do you know the math? The odds are 99.9% chance you get at least one head.
The same formula is applied to the mystic forge. But at 1100 attempts, I have a 90% chance of getting a pre.
Basically, I’ll squander all my possessions to get that stupid pre. If I don’t get the amount that is in line with the stat, I’ll quit for sure. Which means about 2 to 3 in 500 attempts…
I’m a logic person. After buying 3 precursors, I have done the math, using statistics and the experience of other people to persuade myself to use the mystic forge instead of buying the precursors. Basically, the odds of getting a pre is .2 % from rares. Using a cumulative binomial calculator, the odds of getting 1 or more pre from 350 attempts is 50%….
Well, after 1100 attempts, I’ve convinced myself to quit. I know.. 100 trolls will say good ridden. Whatever. I’ll never buy an Anet game or all other affiliates. You have wasted my time enough already…
Everyone noticed that GW2 caters to the PvE community more. Everyone has experienced being severely outnumbered which causes them tune out from WvW to do more profitable endeavours.
How about creating a mammoth-sized boss that attacks keeps for the losing team that targets the winning team. If left unchallenged, the beast just takes everything. If killed, it gives unique rewards.
The stats on the beast is equal to the sum of all the players of on the map. I.E Monster Toughness = 35 players * 3000 average toughness. And so on.
Losing servers can use this to either fight with the beast or split-push elsewhere.
JQ is probably the most dominant server during Oceanic time. However, I no longer see the former commanders and guilds that used to play. I get the feeling that JQ isn’t as strong as it once was. I think that Blackgate is the strongest server all around, but they are also the most “PvE” server as well. And so when there are PvE events, BG is weak. But come time for WvW seasons, the players on BG come out of the woodwork.
If you join during the right time, you will get a lot of caps with very little resistance from other servers during Sea on JQ. But overall, as much as people protest when someone says the truth, people are leaving the game and it’s hard to predict which server is better at what at this point, because if a known commander drops the game, the server is weakened.
To me, WvW doesn’t matter much anymore. It’s there so that I can complete my achievements. I came on the WvW forum because it’s in a bookmark…
Simple. Don’t do anything. People in inferior servers will stop playing out of disgust from losing, consequently, players on larger servers will stop playing out of disinterest.
That’s not entirely correct. Noticeable streaks at the statistical level are a sign that there’s some trend that isn’t random. Noticeable streaks on smaller scales happen all the time and are a natural result of RNG. If you flip a coin ten times and get ten heads, that doesn’t mean the process isn’t random or that it’s biased.
This.
It’s really too bad we don’t have the percentages. But let’s take the coin flip toss example. The percentage to hit 10 coin flips out of ten tries is 0.097656%. So the odds is 1023 to 1… This can be found by using the “cumulative binomial probability” formula. There are free calculators online.
Thanks to Zikory, no thanks to geist. The reason I post here is because 1) I don’t know where to find the information; google is of no help 2) I’m buried in irrelevant information on this site.
Yes, the “If he runs away, you win” sucks. When you engage someone in a fight, you’re basically saying “I bet I can win.” You invest your position on the map as well as all your stacks. If I got my warrior and ran away from a fight without sacrificing what I have put on the table, then the game is rigged in my favour.
But this will never be fixed. Everyone knows the devs play warriors.
I agree with this. The time and supply it requires to upgrade should be all it takes. Given that the opposing team can immediately know the status a structure’s upgrade, that should be the incentive to take it over as quickly as possible. The onus is on the enemy to strike quickly.
I’d vote BG. World first Tequatl kill, on the way to NA Season 1 champ, a class act even/especially when steamrolling lower tier servers (like the ~8wks TC spent in T2 with BG last spring).
Even though BG is taking some chaff for now for recruiting for Season 1, they’re one of the few servers that rose steadily through the ranks to T1 with hard work and perseverence, rather than a single instant big influx of guilds from an imploding server that shot them up to T1. Only JQ has a better record in that respect, having started in T1 and never fallen out of it.
JQ would be a close second, simply by virtue of never having been out of T1 in the history of the game. It would be interesting to see how they’d handle it if they did get dropped to T2, though I don’t foresee that ever happening now that server transfers are so expensive.
JQ has dropped to T2 for 2 matches.
You obviously don’t know about the rating system prior to seasons. Ratings were based on a variation of elo, a chest rating system. Even though the server found itself in T2, its rating was not T2. It was only a random algorithm that placed the server there. For example, from July 20, 2013 to August 10, 2013, JQ was in T2 but still won third place.
Any server that hits first place should be deleted and its guilds should be randomly distributed between other servers. For reals! God I’m so good at balance, I’ll take $10000 for that, ANet!
It would be bad if SOR dropped to T2. Do take a look at the scores. A lot of the hardcore wvwers are bored, especially the SEA folks.
That said, even if SOR is still in T1 or T2, I wouldn’t mind because as I told the folks in the WvW Committee and in general, most of us are here because we have fun with the community win or lose. I am not saying that the SOR WvW community is better, in fact from the folks who went BG and back to SOR, I had reports that BG has a vibrant community too. I am pretty sure that all T1 WvW have a lot of fun folks, it’s just that our strategic aims are remarkably different.
And to Zikory, to put it simply we are taking the weight of the wvw direction off a few persons/guilds because it’s simply too much. If that is called reorganizing then so be it.
One can only hope that we (SoR) slip down to tier 2. I was happy there. We played for the fights, talked less trash and just had fun.
even if we don’t slip down I hope we can just not worry about trying to “win” tier 1. Just play the game and fraps all the times the zerg runs from you.
I think you miss understood me. Someone mentioned that a tri realm pvp game is coming out that will take players away. If that happens then I would like to go back to tier 2. As it stands right now us being in tier 2 would.not work out well because we would just be the black gate of tier 2. Not something I like. Vastly out numbering or being vastly out numbered either way not my idea of fun.
Why do people say stacked when theres a limit of how many people can be on a server queues happen when X server has 100 on the map aka 300 map total across 3 servers….and yet I know for a fact BG often has no queue times during OCE and EU, by the same virtue I’d assume JQ and SoR have no queue times at times too fair enough.
But at the pinnacle of week 1 I’m SURE that all 3 servers had queues on all four maps….BG won that week, how is it " you have more numbers " if we won week one against JQ and SoR when all 4 maps would have been capped out at the 300 members 100 per side. Think about it.
BG won because of the 2v1. Don’t get disillusioned.
FINALLY a sensible post with reasonable suggestions.
I for one am sick and tired of having to play a game to win rewards. This is not how games should be done. I cannot believe that we have to fight the Blackgate server on even footing to gain a chance of success.
I am also dumbfounded that gathering does not add to our PPT. It is even in WvW! Why do we not get PPT for gathering? Sometimes I even complete the daily achievement for gathering and still no PPT. Do you expect we fight the opposing server to win? It’s bad enough I have to hide my presense to do gathering on the borderlands, now you expect me to fight them to win?
I agree, with the OP. If this keeps up I will be cancelling my $20 per month and going back to Mario Kart.
I love my thread.
I said “playing dead”, because it’s just playing. Yes, we lost. We knew it by monday. There’s no point in making it trilling for BG. BF4, here I come.
If you’re a leader of a guild who has been offered something of value (gems, gold, items) to transfer to another server to help someone else win but YOU REFUSED, let the world know the name of your guild so that everyone will know how honourable your guild really is!
Great, another chestbeating thread from BG. Not every server has 24 hour queues all week on all maps and when there is legitimately less people on other respective servers. Even though fighting bgs zone blobs on all maps the with the same 25 people on 3maps, at least we’re getting fights – it would’ve been horribly boring to stay on an overstacked server with no competition.
Edit; comment is in reference to oc and Euro
Great, another post from someone who claimed we had no coverage, now saying we are now over stacked in that same timezone, despite getting no other guilds. Also, how would you know about our queues considering you aren’t on the server anymore? Either way your information is wrong, SOS BL and JQ BL have been without a queue pretty much every morning I have been on this week. (I am NA EST) When I logged at 2am there was no queue on SoS BL, or BG BL. Also, the entire week there hasn’t been a queue on SoS or JQ Bls in the mornings up until EU prime. (8am – 1-2pmish) But please, keep telling me about those 24/7 queues i have to keep waiting in.
P.S.: By the way, the thread wasn’t started by a BG player, his post history shows that pretty easy, so calm down on the chest thumping comments.
I admire the way I brought the subject up. My thread question was rhetorical, exposing the evils of the yellow, greedy, and large kitten server, err, Garfield server.
I thought Merc left because they weren’t getting support of BG’s NA?
Now your saying we do overtime? Crazy.
No, the problem is EVERYONE underestimated what BG was capable of, including BG. Go ahead and blame ZDs if it makes you feel better, but we all know deep down they alone don’t make up for the score differences.
I think someone bet on the wrong horse.
qft
It’s pretty clear what Anet has to do in order to avoid bs from this season. Firstly, don’t do seasons at all. Secondly, no rewards what’s so ever. Thirdly, don’t publish the kitten schedule. Forthly, freeze all server transfers. Fifty, stop all player to player gold and item trading. This will ensure that WvW will get the proper and respectful fights.
The real problem is the business model Anet has employed. Bots have abused it, TP speculators have abused it, and now regular WvW are abusing it.
Which is why SoR teamed up with BG during the first week, right? We certainly begged to win back then… whatever your logic is, it doesn’t make sense. It’s about honour. You want to reward treacherous behaviour.
As for BG running off, we had the same experience. Holy arrow carts. They can only face on if it’s 2v1… Give them a taste of their own medicine.
lol what you probably weren’t there during the 4 hour defense of Bay in the JQ borderlands 10 attempts from JQ with 2 golem rush all failed it was a glorious fight! but sadly JQ was overpowered.
and you must be stupid if you think going head on in fights is always the right idea commanders are smart they know what they’re doing if they see the enemy zerg is 10x bigger then ofcourse they’d avoid them. just like in the bay fight where JQ had literally over 200 people it was fun I still have videos and screenshots XD
You don’t seem to get it, you are the ones avoiding 1v1’s. But I guess it is smart of you to avoid them, cause every time you do, you get crushed. Meh.
BG whined about the season match up claiming JQ was the winner…props to the tactic, SoR bought into your mantra and willingly became your kittenes to double team up on us.
Hope y’all enjoy the view at the top…cheap seats as they may be.
Well, considering the match was so close, I think both BG and SoR thought all 3 of us had equal chances of winning, combine that with the on paper easier match ups JQ got handed, it only seemed logical they wanted to do whatever they had to make sure JQ didnt get any points. And that meant making sure we stayed in third place.
What SoR failed to realize is they were no match up for BG, (Though this info would easily be available if they looked at past match ups.) even some JQ thought BG was done for, due to their poor performance during the previous 2 match ups.
Now I don’t know if BG knew they were going to beat SoR so easily or what, but either way SoR handed the win to BG, with that one decision to help BG force JQ to third. Those 2 points lost, would have kept us still having a chance in week 7. But alas what is done is done. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
Add in the purchase/transfer-helping of a couple off peak hour guilds after week 1, and SoR got slammed. They weren’t expecting the sucker punch, and got hit hard. And though I am sure not all of them gave up after their 10k loss, its pretty hard to recover from that sort of slam. In WvW, a few hours of being forced to play entirely defensive can spell lose for the week. Add in the loss their fairweathers, and the gain in BG’s fairweathers on top of that, and the week was cemented. (We’re essentially seeing the same thing happening this week, just JQ held out a little longer, due probably to us knowing it was coming.)
Weeks not over yet mind you, and most guilds will still be fighting, its just hard to recover from a 46k loss, especially when your constantly forced to play defensive and retake back lost territory.
This sums up my sentiment and perception of the matter exactly. As the saying goes, you’re only as good as your last match. SoR did do better than BG 2 weeks prior to the season. I honestly expected SoR to win. I guess all that bribing help kill the mood.
SoR, you be the judge. Are you going to side with BG again during week 7 like you did during week 1 in light of all this? Or are you going to do the honourable thing by siding with JQ to crush BG and demoralize them?
If it were up to me I’d focus down on JQ base on the assumption that you’re on JQ. Even if BG “bought” their win, it’s no where near as annoying as someone begging for a win. But I think SoR has already settled for going after whichever brings the best fights. Personally I’m disappointed with the lack of fights we had with BG during Oceanic times, even when we were out-numbered they run off. It’s been more entertaining fighting against Mag and TC this week. Hopefully with when Wk7 rolls around and it doesn’t matter wheater BG gets last 4rd they are still going to win, they will ease up on the “bore you enemies to death” strategy.
Which is why SoR teamed up with BG during the first week, right? We certainly begged to win back then… whatever your logic is, it doesn’t make sense. It’s about honour. You want to reward treacherous behaviour.
As for BG running off, we had the same experience. Holy arrow carts. They can only face on if it’s 2v1… Give them a taste of their own medicine.
.