Guild Wars 2

That solution doesnt work for me. I seem to get the error on maps that many people are joing at the same time. I’ve had it trying to do a giuld mission and and triple trouble (twice at different times).

Falanu.4289:

Qazwersder.3574:

 For your die example. You want to roll a six. A die has a 1 in 6 chance of a six on each roll (0.17). You care going to roll twice. The possible outcomes are:
 
Six (0.17) / Not Six (0.83)  = 0.1411     
Not Six (0.83) / Six (0.17) = 0.1411
Six (0.17) / Six (0.17) = 0.0289
Not Six (0.83) / Not Six (0.83) = 0.6889
 
Chances of you not getting a six is 0.6889 (68.89%). Therefore the chances of you getting a six is 1 – 0.6889 = 0.3111 (31.11%).
 
As you can imagine, the more times you throw the die, the more chance you have of getting at least one six. The chance on each roll is still 0.17 (1 in 6).

Bullkitten. That would apply if you rolled two dice, not a single one twice. Stop deluding yourself and others.

What’s the difference between rolling two dice once and one die twice? The dice have no effect on each others outcome. If you still don’t see it then apply it to tossing a coin. Is tossing one coin twice different to tossing two coins once?

I am deluding no one.

If I had said that you would have a greater chance of a precursor on the second forge then I would be wrong, but that isn’t what I am saying.

Falanu.4289:

Qazwersder.3574:

If my memory is correct, when using exotics, the chance of a precursor is 0.79%.

If you can buy exotic swords for 2g per sword, you can have 56 forges with your 450g.

The chance of you getting a precursor with 56 forges is 35.86%. (ie the chance of you not getting one to the power 56)

1-((1-0.079)^56)

Edit 1: Sorry I forgot to take into account the exotics you’ll get from your 56 forges, (an extra 17 forges worth) which will take your chance of a precursor to 43.95%.

Edit 2: my memory wasn’t correct, so my chances were a bit small.

You really put all those numbers into that post to sell him this? You are wrong on the assumption that chances add up. If the chance is 0.79% it is 0.79% every time you hit the button. Stochastics don’t have a memory.

I rather hoped those numbers would put him off, showing that after 450g worth of forges they would still have less than a 50% chance of having received a precursor.

I’m aware of the maths involved and it is indeed correct.

 For your die example. You want to roll a six. A die has a 1 in 6 chance of a six on each roll (0.17). You care going to roll twice. The possible outcomes are:
 
Six (0.17) / Not Six (0.83)  = 0.1411     
Not Six (0.83) / Six (0.17) = 0.1411
Six (0.17) / Six (0.17) = 0.0289
Not Six (0.83) / Not Six (0.83) = 0.6889
 
Chances of you not getting a six is 0.6889 (68.89%). Therefore the chances of you getting a six is 1 – 0.6889 = 0.3111 (31.11%).
 
As you can imagine, the more times you throw the die, the more chance you have of getting at least one six. The chance on each roll is still 0.17 (1 in 6).

jeezlaweez.6810:

Nope. I doesn’t increase.

It’s like saying “if you gamble on the lottery much, you have a better chance to win every time you play on it”. And we know that’s not how it works.
Every new attempt, the game reset to 0,79%, they do not stack.

You are mistaking this with dice rolling. When you roll 1 dice (the Forge case), you can get 6 in 1/6 times. When you roll 6 die at THE SAME TIME (not the Forge case), you can get 6 from any of those die, so your chances improve.

I will use a coin toss as an example. Heads or tails, the chance is 50/50. You want a head.

You are going to throw the coin twice. The possible outcomes are:
HH
HT
TH
TT

So there are four outcomes each with an equal 25% of occurring. But how many of those outcomes have a head in? 3. The chances of getting at least one head is 75%. The chances of getting two heads is 25%. The chance of no heads is 25%.

This can be applied to the mystic forge in the same way. For two forges the possible outcomes are:

NP/NP
P/NP
NP/P
P/P

the chance of a pre is 0.79% per forge. There are three possible outcomes which will result in a pre. The easiest way to do it is to consider the chances of not getting a pre (99.21% per forge). Only in one case will you not get a pre, the chances of which are 0.9921*0.9921=0.9843 (98.43%). With every other outcome you get a pre (1.57%).

I hope that makes sense. You can do the same for you die example but it would take me longer to write out.

This does apply to the lottery so long as you always use the same numbers and enter every draw. Note that the chances of you winning a specific draw remains the same.

If my memory is correct, when using exotics, the chance of a precursor is 0.79%.

If you can buy exotic swords for 2g per sword, you can have 56 forges with your 450g.

The chance of you getting a precursor with 56 forges is 35.86%. (ie the chance of you not getting one to the power 56)

1-((1-0.079)^56)

Edit 1: Sorry I forgot to take into account the exotics you’ll get from your 56 forges, (an extra 17 forges worth) which will take your chance of a precursor to 43.95%.

Edit 2: my memory wasn’t correct, so my chances were a bit small.

Blaine Tog.8304:

Qazwersder.3574:

I see a lot of posts complaining that the precursor crafting is too expensive and the collection should have been longer but no one ever says what anet could have done to make it longer.

Anet made it a very long inexpensive collection. It just happens that the components of the collection can be sold on the tp.

Would we all prefer a collection of account bound items from all over the world?

Yes. Absolutely. In a heartbeat. That was the sort of journey I was hoping for: a bunch of account-bound mats you could work towards while playing different content on top of specific objectives you’d have to go out of your way to acquire. I’m not opposed to requiring some amount of TP materials or even for the final price to be pretty high (say, around 50-66% the price of buying a precursor), but I don’t think the price to craft should equal the effective price to buy, much less exceed it significantly in
some cases.

But what difference would it make? If Anet had said ‘Get 100 of ’A’ collectable from ‘X’ and 100 of ‘B’ collectable from map ’y’’ etc that wasnt tradable on the TP then it would require time. All they have done is said get ‘w’ amount of wood, ore and leather from maps x y and z’ which also requires time. Assuming the time investment to harvest both kinds is the same then there is no difference investment wise.

I see a lot of posts complaining that the precursor crafting is too expensive and the collection should have been longer but no one ever says what anet could have done to make it longer.

Anet made it a very long inexpensive collection. It just happens that the components of the collection can be sold on the tp.

Would we all prefer a collection of account bound items from all over the world?

Manasa – because now I can sit and gather the materials for the precursor hunt and once I have amassed them decide whether I want to craft or sell the mats and buy off the tp. (This is no different to before except now I have a list of specific materials to work towards as opposed to just gold value).

Aomine – yes dusk is most expensive and it’s currently cheaper to craft, so intelligent people will craft this and then buy the one they actually want. This will cause all two handed precursors (if the have the same material cost and difficulty, I don’t know the costs) to adjust towards a similar price. I don’t know what this price will be.

So everyone just grinds 70% of the materials and buys off the tp. Then what happens to the precursor price with the increased demand?

And what happens to the ascended material price with the decreased demand?

This is simplifying the price dynamics, been that precursor prices are linked to a number of other markets, not just supply/demand. The reason you are seeing such a difference between crafting cost and tp cost is because the market is unsettled. Give it a few months and the ‘problem’ will go away.

I’m after getting a secondary system that can be used to play GW2 occassionally. I’m looking at getting this together for the cheapest possible and I’m after some advice on where to start.

At the moment I’m considering the Intel G3258 as my processor but I dont know wether there are cheaper options out there that will make the game playable. I dont mind buying secondhand but I dont know how say a Q6600 (random choice) would fare with this game.

I’m happy with 30fps for this. I understand that WvW zergs are out the window, but I would like open world to be playable.

As a bit more information (Or for those who are curious), I’ve tried a Athlon 64 x2 4200+ with a HD3870 (An old system of mine), and while the game runs it appears to be severly CPU limited getting around 12fps in open world, graphics settings making absolutely no difference.

Thanks for any help.

Fantastic thread. Surprised by the openness with which posters have spoken.

I have a similar spreadsheet myself, for common, fine and rare material promotions however I had never known there was a range, I assumed the minimum and failed to do enough of my own research.

But again all lower tiered items are farmable and available to everyone. So everyone is able to access these items.

I’m no economist and I am most proboably missing something major here.

In my opinion it would be better for precursor’s to be cheaper and T6’s to be more expensive. Sure you might still have to spend the same amount (or more) in total but at least you can see yourself getting nearer the goal. T6 mats are at least farmable/promotable.

I think he was referring to making the most money with his armor. If so, I’d say you’ll probably make most money by salvaging them for ecto’s but its pure chance really.

Dont expect to play wvw on it though.

Yeah should be fine. You might want to add in an aftermarket cpu cooler if you are planning on overclocking. I assume you have a mouse handy.

Do you know which phenom you have? use cpu-z if not, it’ll let you know.

Just to second solarnova’s recommendations, they are all reputable places. Personally i’ve used overclockers and scan.

Intel i5 (Fastest you can afford)
At least 4gig ram (8 if you can afford)
AMD 7850

Rest doesnt really matter so much. I suppose the question is 900 what?

Its brilliant

Thinking about i, I might have over estimated the fps of the 3870, however the fps of the 7850 still isnt right.

I know the fx8120 isnt the strongest cpu, but im standing outside the portal in caledon forest with the resolution at 1024×768 and the grapics settings set at best performance and its still only giving me 37fps. Surely this is a bit low.

I’ve just upgraded my computer with a hd7850 from a hd3870 and I’ve found that my fps has gone down.

With best performance settings, im getting ~40fps in LA
With best appearance settings, im getting ~15fps in LA
When I ask gw to Auto Detect, it auto detects best appearance settings.

Previously with the hd3870, i would have ~50fps in LA with settings above best performance.

I’ve installed the latest catalyst drivers (catalyst 13.2, driver ver. 12.100.17.0) and they haven’t helped.

I havent been able to try any other games as I have non installed, I’m downloading 3D Mark atm.

The rest of the system is:
Gigabyte 990fxa-ud3, fx8120, 8gb Ram, OCZ vertex 4 ssd

I’m not sure where to go with this. Are there any known issues that I’m unaware of? Anyone got any ideas?

Edit: On best appearance setting, GPUZ reports gpu load is 71%, temps are 56 Celcius, Fan speed 39%. CPU isnt maxed on a single core, highest any core is is ~75%, CPU temps 50 Celcius.