Guild Wars 2

I don’t agree on the usefulness or not of running the simulation across the two rewards systems. There are a number of scenarios [flagged account, residual DR issue] that would still hold, and it is worth assessing whether the return falls into a range of feasible or not. And of course the code is still available to them, perhaps at a little more trouble, it is true. Although it is more likely that if there is a problem it stems from an associated common piece of code rather than one that was replaced. There are many factors that could and would be common.

I guess my key point is that there comes a time when the statistical unlikeliness indicates an issue, what is that point for Anet – or will they continue to just point to RNG and do nothing.

Na, please read posts more carefully, that is 86 days without ascended armour. Are you seriously suggesting the 4 extra days is your make or break?

The simulation would be interesting, but it is simply a question of statistical probability, which it will be interesting to see if your simulation matches.

Gator.5729:

For there to be a bug no one would have gotten an item.

Not remotely true of course. Bugs come in all shapes and sizes and can affect different items and different players in different ways depending on a number of factors.

Also, of course it is possible that you could roll a million times and get zero return, but there is a point that the statistical probability becomes so low that on balance of probability something else is in play.

Let me start by saying that the Fractal reward chests are not definitely bugged, they are only over 96% likely to be bugged. And not necessarily for everyone, just for some players at least.

I have been a regular completer of top level fractals for some time now, receiving what was probably an average return rate on the chests, those implemented at the time. In early March I noticed the start of a dry spell, which I duly attributed to RNG, in which I received no ascended armour chest drops. This was particularly noticeable to me since I was gearing up two characters to expand my raiding options. I kept track of how long and this spell extended to over 50 days, until April 19th, when the reward system was overhauled.

Following that, I have still not received a single ascended armour chest. I stopped opening the chests after 24th May and I am now accumulating them, but I did open them [T1-T4] each day until then, some 36 days in all.

This means a run of at least 86 days without a single ascended armour drop.

Now, if the stats reported by KING* are correct, or thereabouts, and if my maths is correct**, the chances of this happening to any specific individual are less than 1 in 2.5 million. This, to me, goes beyond simple RNG and me just being the unluckiest person in the game over this period.

I don’t know how many people do top tier fractals every day, but assuming 100,000 this would make the likelihood that even a single person receives no armour over this period less than 1 in 25, i.e. a greater than 96% probability that everyone receives at least one piece. And this is on very conservative maths, and how much less likely that it would be someone who was actually paying attention.

Unless of course it is somehow bugged for some players, incl me. A hangover from a prior DR implementation, a player flag, a general bug, whatever.

Support will not look into it, because according to their script it is simply RNG. Which brings me to the second part of the topic title. At what point will support concede that the numbers indicate that something more than RNG may be at play?

• 13% per day prior to 19/4; 6.9% per grp of [T1-T4] since 19/4
  • Product of straightforward binomial calculation of each of the two periods

Sorry Na, seems I have to repeat myself …
You assert that, and I quote “The only way to reduce such discrepancies is to add a token system ….” and you seem to hold to this in your later post.
Referring to my post you refuse to read, “… whereby each account’s odds start a little lower and increment slowly as they roll unsuccessfully, then resetting on a successful roll ….” is, in my opinion, at least a valid alternative. One which retains some elements of RNG, avoids the “grindy” elements he is keen to avoid, but helps to alleviate the pain felt by outliers.
I have also conceded the following “This, I guess, at the very least leads us to option 3 in my above post” and my intention, whilst seemingly ambiguous to you, is to tackle the design flaw, rather than assert an implementation flaw.

Five days on and I continue to await an ascended drop with bated breath …

Na, firstly the numbers you produce are pretty well the numbers I have already stated, so no addition there.
Re: no fundamental flaw apart from RNG itself, my point exactly.
Re: the “Only way to reduce such discrepancies ….” – actually it’s not the only way, I have clearly outlined an alternative way above. Please read the posts more carefully.

Well I can see how one might think that either the maths or the programming are complex, but they are certainly not beyond Anet. There are three areas in which the RNG can hit hard – fractal chests, RAID chests and MF rolls. So really not that many things to keep track of. Against this consider the implementation of diminishing returns. Although Anet have never released exact details of how this works, it is known that the system keeps track of each character’s participation in each of the dungeons, each of the world bosses, each of the world map areas and per each type of mob, reducing drop rates and odds of loot until it reaches zero, and then slowly unwinds this according to some formula that tracks ‘alternative’ participation. All this to stop botting – fair enough. I would respectfully suggest that implementing a system on the 3 major reward areas whereby each account’s odds start a little lower and increment slowly as they roll unsuccessfully, then resetting on a successful roll, is a great deal less complicated than the system they already have in place for DR.

Actually your binomial distribution maths is a bit rusty it appears. Chance of exactly one drop in 90 tries with 8.9% drop rate [the KING figure I could find on their reddit thread] is 0.0019 – or approx 2 in a thousand. Now I guess that means that for every thousand players there are likely to be two of us, which means 200 of us if we assume 100k players are active and doing three T4 every day. And 2 people who have got nothing at all. This, I guess, at the very least leads us to option 3 in my above post. The system, by its very nature, does not balance out in the end for a small number of people.

Well, I have now done T4 every single day since the change and received 0 ascended armour and 1 ascended weapon. That’s 1 asc weapon and 0 armour from 90 T4 and 90 T3 chests. So either my account is flagged, rewards are seriously nerfed, or the RNG system has a fundamental flaw.

This is still an issue, I am on 310 ping at the moment, which is about the best you can get from Australia to Europe, and I cannot get past the first canyon. This is even worse because they insist on making this a daily. Can you please report on progress on this? Oh wait, remembers that anet are well known for not reporting on anything. Darn.

I want to add my big thanks to this as well. Having been a bit grumpy about what I considered a bad design choice, I really appreciate both the recognition of need for a change and the implementation. This makes the new maps a lot more enjoyable, fun and accessible.

Thank you.

One needs to give credit where it is due. Many thanks for changing this mechanic. This makes an incredible difference. Gliding is actually really fun now.

I now cannot get in at all, game client (both 32 bot and 64 bit) crashes. Have lodged with support, still hate the fact that both development and the forum team choose to ignore anything that doesn’t tell them what a good job they are doing.

Hey hold on ………………….. Guys, you’re doing a great job! any update on the winter wonderland entry problems?

Still having eternal problems getting in including client crashes. Still being ignored by Anet. Situation normal.

Still a problem, now my client has started crashing each time I try to get in. Still no response / acknowledgement from Anet, the company that is run by the developers, everyone else running too scared of them to behave professionally.

…. or by them designing mechanics to account for their server deployment strategy.

I mean let’s face it, they have serious internal communication problems. Releasing new legendaries that rely on events that were turned off a year earlier, daily wintersday events reliant on npc’s which were removed last year etc etc.

All of which would possibly be an interesting discussion if they bothered to even read these forums. Kinda frustrating that the only department that seems to do their jobs is the ‘taking your money and banking it’ department.

Developers / client liaison / Gaile …. Please read and respond to the forums like support promise you will.

DoctorDing.5890:

I sympathise, but I’m not sure what you expect them to do about it.
With that ping you must struggle with other stuff in the game too, especially dodging.

What they can do about the glider is quite straightforward, actually, similar to the way they have resolved this in jumping puzzles. That is that the client tells the server when the glider was deployed, rather than the current system which requires a response from the server to confirm that you are in the air before allowing the client to then request a glider deployment. They have dealt with this type of issue in many places, why not here?

Still a issue, now a problem in the raid. Support promise the developers will post here, can they please do so.

It’s not entirely a problem for the ping to stop sucking, it is more a case of the developers recognising that not everyone sits next to their servers, and designing the mechanics around that fact. For instance, I can happily navigate both the clocktower and (when I can get in) Wintersday jp’s, because there the responsible developer has recognised that the server being god doesn’t always work, so the client tells the server what I did. The glider could and should be designed the same way.

I am bumping this thread because support insist that the developers do read the forums and will post on this one ……

Still happening, can take an hour to get in. But the most irritating is when it bumps back to the Divinity’s screen and hangs there. Oh and my client has crashed three times now, but we all know they don’t read those reports either.

No, JNetRocks, no word from the devs because you don’t get any word from Anet on the forums at all, unless you start a post with “Jeez Gaile, you do a great job”. Then she may deign to post.

I guess that as people receive their trophies this thread will die away. Questions remain still:

Why didn’t they do this in the first place, why take a month?
Why didn’t they just add it to a vendor to sort everyone out?
Most importantly, why do they disrespect their playing and paying customers this much by still, to this day, not having sufficient respect to make a single post. Zero communication = outright disrespect.

Same problem, 64 bit client crashes on drone race. So I went back to the 32 bit client (which means duplicating the update) and guess what, that crashes too.

Kraljevo.2801:

It is dissapointing, but having 10 nevermore posts is not helping anyone. They are aware of it, let’s hope for a fix today.

How do you know that they are aware of it? Probably the worst aspect of this entire episode is that there has not been a single post on the topic from anet in the entire month. So there is no evidence that they are even aware, let alone that they are doing anything about it. Seems even the community relations team, whose job is to monitor and post to the forums, do not do so any more.

Well, I would bet that if something you ordered was a month late you would have called the post office. More to the point, if they declined to talk to you and would give you no acknowledgement that the thing you thought you were waiting for even existed, you would be jumping up and down like a trained seal by now. But since I don’t know you I can’t say that for certain, ofc, but I suspect my money would be safe.

Anyway, my point is far less about the problems themselves and far more about the unwillingness to acknowledge anything or to communicate, especially from people whose job it is to do so.

It is evident that no-one at Anet, developer or QA, has ever tested the Nevermore IV collection, since none of them could ever have got the missing pup trophy.

Interesting view Maris, but … a month, with no comment at all. In the end, we are paying customers, what other business that you buy from treats you like this, I wonder?

I think Anet have taken the money and run. Gaile, who’s job is to monitor and post, hasn’t posted on anything at all for a week. No-one has posted on any of the myriad of issues for the entire month. Hmmm.

Despite the clear and overwhelming evidence that this is a complete mess, NOT A SINGLE POST from anet for over a month. Have they all been fired or are they out partying spending the money we paid for HoT?

I am fully aware that stuff happens, but the worst sin that any business can commit is to ignore your customers.

Communicate please.

I will continue to bump until the devs please respond and explain how exactly they advise us to obtain proper functionality from this design.

Support have suggested continued lobbying in the forums since the devs do not take input from them, they have further suggested lobbying for an Asia Pacific server, would be nice but I am also not sure that solves the problem necessarily for all people. Funny how the rest of the world seems not to matter much.

Adding my voice to this. I posted on this topic during the betas, I posted after launch and am posting again, as I have been advised to do by support on the basis that the devs periodically check the forums. This despite not much evidence.

Interestingly though, I have also been assured by support that the glider deployment is entirely client based and not affected by ping/latency/lag. I am trying to find an appropriate response to this kind of assertion that remains reasonably civil.

Prisoners of the Dragon story achievements still bugged. Refer to thread on topic.

This is still bugged. I can see the page from certain angles, but cannot interact and Beigarth is simply not there.

Matthew said he would look into it first thing Monday, some 9 days ago. Hope his weeks aren’t too long.

And presumably they are now short-staffed in QA since whoever approved the release is out job hunting?

Fractal Weapon Collection not showing weapon skin (in my case longbow) that I have in my bank. I have tried transmuting and equipping one, that does not add it to the collection.

I have a slightly smaller problem than most posters in that it is showing all my skins except one. I have that skin in my bank and am loath to use it because at least it constitutes evidence. I have also tried using a transmutation charge on a random bow but seemingly actually equipping a fractal bow doesn’t add it to the collection either.

I know anet are busy and all that, but I would have thought that something as key as the gold fractal skins being blocked would have at least elicited an acknowledgement in the forum.

Absolutely loving everything about HoT so far, but there is one thing so many of us were excited about that has turned out to be a false promise, and that is that we can finally salvage those ascended rings. Well, although technically we can, it makes no sense. An ascended salvage tool cost a gold (and a couple of relics but those don’t matter), and yields a small number of stabilising matrices, which currently sell on the tp for 19s. Nett 16s when costs taken out. Average loss of about 50s per go. So unless the economics change, we will end up just selling them to a merchant after all.
Not going to rush out and do that, of course, will wait to see how the value shifts, but this is not promising.

OK, so this is still an issue, they haven’t bothered to address or acknowledge. Anet can you please comment on how this will be addressed.

thanks

Ah, but you could take back garri pretty quickly

I am in Australia playing on the European servers (I know I know, I have lots of friends in Europe and South Africa). One of the consequences of this is average ping of 400, best case 350. Now this has consequences in PvP and WvW [they have actually hit you before your client even starts the animation], and to some extent in PvE [Ranger sword skill 3 simply does not work, for instance, because of the way the skill is designed with client / server interaction]. We just live with this and hope for a better solution one day.

What I have noticed in the Beta, however, is that glider deployment is similarly designed. This means that due to the lag, my glider deploys a 1/4 second later than it should, which makes certain precision glides (such as the one needed to get to the SE mastery point) impossible, as I have already lost height I cannot afford. This is likely to impact exploration in HoT, with the potential that I, and all those like me, i.e. people who do not live in Europe and the US, may have entire areas inaccessible.

This does not seem to be the case for most current jp’s, jumping is clearly designed differently (presumably the client tells the server when I jumped). The only case I know about was the final jump on the halloween clocktower.

This post is intended to bring this to the attention of the devs, [who do not appear to have simulators that show them true playing conditions for a fair number of players]. Please can you look at changing the glider deployment mechanic so that the client tells the server when it happened.

Can someone please point me to the update notes (and presumably rationale) for the mystic forge returning level 75-79 items when four level 80’s are put in. All I can find is the published official release note stating that the item returned will be the average of those put in. I have just put in 8 sets of level 80 exotic dungeon weapons and been returned 3 level 80’s, one level 79 and four level 78’s. To be short-changed at all seems incongruous with the published release note, but to be short-changed 5 out of 8 times seems to me a major impact. Or is this a bug?

All very eloquent SKATE, and some reasonable points, but I feel you are missing the two key issues here. Firstly, many of the items you mention have a collections tab, or are at least stackable, so the EOL question is one the player is not forced to answer. Secondly, rings are a key reward from the final reward chest of end-game content.

You start with ascended material. Mists essence in all its forms is a material, so while it is annoying that something you used to be happy to see drop now seems useless, the player is at least not faced with an uninformed choice of what to do with it. And it does seem obvious that sooner or later we must be able to infuse trinkets (it is an anomaly that we can’t now, but that’s a different topic).

The more common materials such as bloodstone dust et al are also stackable materials so at least a reasonable quantity can be kept. More importantly, it is clear to the player what bloodstone’s usefulness is, and a sink (Mawdrey II, that was both cute and clever) has been created, providing at least some value and, most importantly, some certainty. [A side-note would be that if Anet later provided some requirement for vast volumes of bloodstone dust then they really should be shot.] A sink for the other two is likely to follow, or should at least, providing not only an outlet but certainty.

Most of the rest of that which you mention drops as an aside amongst other bigger rewards, is stackable (blade shards are by the way) and has a clear future. The rings are, as I said earlier, a chance single reward drop from the end chest of the highest level end-game content, really not to be equated with the spoons, for example, which drop if you look at sparkly while teq is on, and sell for more.

As to ‘unbalancing the economy’ (not Skate’s point but that of some previous comment), this is spurious argument. A full run of fractals may or may not yield a single ring. That same run yields a full inventory including a number of rares and probably one exotic. The salvage from that one fraction of a ring is hardly material compared to the value generated by all other activities going on in that two hour period.

Anyway, while I personally would like to see some value to be gained from the ring in some form, what I am requesting is more fundamental, and that is certainty. If Anet agree with Skate, for example, then say so and make it clear you will never put a value on them. Then I and countless others can sell them to the vendors with a heavy heart, alleviated somewhat by the freeing up of bank slots to put our spare stacks of empyreals in.

Or perhaps the uncertainty is deliberately designed to force us to buy more bank tabs ……

At the very least, Anet, it is time that you made a clear declaration that either we will at some point in the future be able to do something with these rings, or we won’t. This is the least you can do for those of use who have loyally played your ‘top-end’ content for close to two years and assembled one or two bank tabs of rings. Let us know, for once and for all, to keep or not to keep.
p.s. and also prove you actually read and respond to forums would be nice.

penelopehannibal.8947:

ArenaNet are not ignoring Mac users:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/support/mac/Guild-Wars-2-Certificate-Re-Issuing

It’s an update of the certificate or something (something technical that I’m too old to understand!) so we should be patient for a little while. I’ve saved the higher valued stuff to sell on TP in my bank until it’s resolved. Everything else I’ve salvaged for materials & Magic Find.

Big hugs and smiles

Sorry Penelope, but I simply don’t agree that this constitutes sufficient due diligence or care. Regardless of one’s age, one can understand that the problem was foreseeable the second time around, and yet they went ahead anyway without any clear resolution. They do not provide information on how or how long, and, quite frankly, even the why is somewhat of a mystery.

My key point, however, is that they are not on THIS thread, the one that their community is on and therefore the one that matters.

I do like hugs though.

Not working again. Biggest pity once again is that Anet seems not to have any respect for it’s Mac customers, choosing to ignore the threads on the topic, rather than explaining the what, why and when on a regular basis.

They have customer community specialists on staff, what on earth do these people do if not read and update the forums? Especially for real service outages for an entire segment of the customer base.

Hmmm. I am on a 4GB per month mobile phone data package. Downloading the 18GB client again because they can’t make my ‘exact same copy’ current client work is just not going to happen. Not 3 days before a new [18-30GB] release.

A key point seems to be being missed here. This does not appear to be a universal problem for Apple implementations, in fact the opposite. Apple has discouraged the use of OpenSSL for some time. Quotes from Apple in 2012:

“OpenSSL does not provide a stable API from version to version. Use of the OS X OpenSSL libraries by apps is strongly discouraged.”

Seems they were right, but Anet chose to ignore them. And before someone says it, no I am not suggesting they foresaw the Heartbleed security exposure, but rather the capacity to adapt when something like this happens.

The key points being that (a) the whole software industry is not struggling with providing a Mac friendly solution, seemingly just Anet, and (b) their implementation ignored advice from Apple in the first place.

Well I guess that no fix has been made yet.

Let’s see if I have got this correct? A change was made with no consideration whatsoever of the Mac community. If there was any, then they would have tested the fix and not made it until they had got it right for all. Instead they went ahead and compromised Mac users without consideration.

As a result, we are unable to price, sell or buy anything on the tp in a critical period leading into a major update. We also are missing out on various specials and discounts in the gem store, and we cannot deal in gems. Most importantly, we cannot use the gems they charged us real world dollars for (which I guess makes for an interesting legal position).

Now, we have several additional days of waiting for a series of promised fixes, none of
which seem to be appearing. Guess they love the Mac community with all their hearts.

Seriously hoping that isn’t the client update I just loaded, ‘cos that doesn’t work either. No release note so I can’t say yet.

I am also stuck on 9/10 with all [including the new ach] finished. Crystal, can we also be guaranteed the 50 achievement points when this is fixed please [that’s assuming we got the ap’s for the keg ach … anyone placing bets on that?]

Same problem here, except I had all but the kegs so now 9/10 with all achievements completed ….