Big thanks for topic and discussion! Here is a stream of thought in response to various points in various posts and on the overall topic/suggestions. Mostly follows a pseudo time-line. I apologize for not creating a more cohesive structure.
1) Elite specs are the way ANET has decided to advance the game; suggesting they get removed is probably counterproductive to fruitful discussion because it isn’t realistic. Good starting point for discussion though!
2) Burst condi existed previously: terrormancer. Condi-overload and chain fear to achieve kills.
3) Condi had low presence in early metas because of support guard. There were a few options: (1) apply overload of condies to cover high damage burst condies (terrormancer), (2) apply high damage condies with reasonable frequency (cele ele, burn guard), or (3) some level of both (side-point dueling ranger builds: traps, spirits). Condi mesmer struggled to make meta because team fight cleave and slow(er) illusion generation made it difficult to support team fights or hold a side node (stealth and avoidance reliance).
4) There are counters to each mechanic. Builds become meta when they can apply overwhelming force to eat through potential counters and apply their effect.
5) Generally, pre-HOT meta builds had more weaknesses because professions were initially designed for these to exist. This made meta builds more reliant on a team to help cover in areas they lacked. ANET supported this design (see spirit ranger nerf) up until the cele ele reign.
6) Hard counters were more apparent pre-HOT because of these increased weaknesses and some professions (low mesmer population in NA and low necromancer population in EU) struggled more than others.
7) Fast forward to post-HOT and professions are given new tools to round out their toolbox, making cele ele design a standard.
8) Through various (rapid) iterations, meta undergoes multiple changes from bunker to today.
9) Meta builds are well rounded (cele ele+) and still focus on overwhelming application of one or a few mechanics to achieve effectiveness. Builds are less dependent on the team and more capable of filling alternative roles on the fly. Anything that isn’t meta (doesn’t use the elite spec) is less well rounded, less flexible, and more of a liability because of increased vulnerability to counterplay.
10) Conquest will always weed out less flexible builds because of how it forces players to split away from the team. A greater focus on team play might increase diversity by allowing builds to go “all in” and utilize alllies to cover their weaknesses. We can see this evolution by the drop off in necro population in the last community tournament for EU because of the meta build’s greater dependency on support.
11) Hard counters are not fun and are not okay (see thief/mesmer interaction for majority of pre-HOT). Increasing vulnerabilities decreases chance of counterplay if team fights are not also focused.
12) The game is a rotational one and players are drivers of meta builds. Skill comes in rotating, and fascilitating rotations, to apply the correct overwhelming mechanic to the most vulnerable target more often and in a more effective manner than the opposing team.
What can reasonably be done?
- Build, alter, or develop game modes and maps/map mechanics that focus heavily on team proximity and team play to encourage greater specialization and interdependence.
- Use precision skill/balance iteration to reduce the synergies that make a build so effective. Apply strategy across all over-performing meta builds that pop up. (Current approach)
- Use future elite specializations to open alternate builds and increase diversity. Bonus points if they include mechanisms that can punish current mechanics in some way that doesn’t feel “cheesy”, increasing vulnerabilities and forcing counter-building (and by extension build diversity).
