Guild Wars 2

Verdelet Arconia.6987:

it could be an indirect and safer form of real money trading.

1)the gold buyer wants to buy 100 gold from gold farmer.
2)the farmer tells gold buyer to put lvl25 masterwork weapons with a regular krytan skin and a minor sigil of the night attached at a specific high price in the tp.(the specific high price is actualy an indicator to the gold farmer)
3)the farmer buys the specific vl25 masterwork weapons with a regular krytan skin and a minor sigil of the night and the gold buyer gets his 100gold without any direct transaction.

to differentiate between his customers,he can just instruct buyer A to put lvl 25, Buyer B to put lvl 30, Player C put lvl 35 etc.

this method will result in loss of gold thru TP tax but its much safer than direct money transaction between 2 party thru mailing system.

Although possible, I find it unlikely.

The gold seller can never identify his client’s item to buy and can’t control which item to purchase. So he can never be 100% sure who’s sell order it is. Say you have 5 items listed at 1G. Which one does he buy?

Hawkian.6580:

No, there are buy orders for 25s+ for almost all weapon types matching that description, including the one you linked. The sellers aren’t coming down to meet them, but those alone are way out of wack; the items are essentially worthless (~5s-ish for the skin).

Something weird is definitely going on with them…

Perhaps. Though usually such a large disparity in buy/sell orders means the item don’t move frequently. It could just be that for whatever reason, this item is really rare. Why? I have no idea.

But one thing I can be confident in saying is that transactions for this items occurs very infrequently.

Remember guys, sell orders are just sell orders which have no fulfilled yet. It is very possible that even with the sell listings you see, absolutely no transactions are occuring.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/36244

Just looking at this for an example. The sell listing is very high, but it shows absolutely no movement at all, which means it’s been there for quite sometime. Precursor sell listings show more movement then that, so it’s highly likely that despite the highly priced sell listing, no transactions are happening.

I keep on harping on this, but has yet to get an answer. OP, how is what you originally stated in any way profitable? How does one earn anything from keeping buy/sell prices within 20c of each other?

I’m not sure if you’re on US or EU servers, but I know several US guilds hold public guild missions. I’m too lazy to look them up right now, but if you want I can direct you to them.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Guild_mission

Look at the unlocking table, it clearly shows what’s required.

Sorry to hear you wasted all your effort, but you should try to do better research next time.

SonicTHI.3217:

Yet GW1s “vertical progression” didnt devalue any of your previous work. The titles that you mention worked more like GW2s agony infusions since they provided small defensive and offensive bonuses only versus certain mobs or made certain PVE skills slightly better.

GW2 not even 3 months after release already made 3 gear pieces obsolete and keeps on going with one piece per month virtually destroying mechanics of the game like crafting, karma, tokens… that were meant to make max stat gear be available trough many means of play.

Oh I certainly won’t argue that. The addition of a new gear tier has no precedence in GW1.

However, the idea of grinding for small increases in power does. Which is my original point and the reason why I’m personally not very surprised at the concept of “tiered” gear in GW2.

clay.7849:

Ursan.7846:

clay.7849:

Lol, ya I got the sarcasm.

I dunno, as a GW1 only player, I guess I don’t understand the need to have lots of different tiers of level 80 gear. I never minded just showing off with the cosmetics. No one else can see those damage numbers anyways lol.

Remember, GW1 also had “tiers” of effectiveness. Only it manifested itself in titles, not gear.

I don’t follow…

GW1 had tiers of vertical progression. Namely in the title tracks, where the more you grinded, the more effective your characters became. Faction and the EoTN titles, as well as the Salvage/Lockpick ones.

Basically, more grind = higher numbers. GW1 had vertical progression, so I’m not surprised at all at the vertical progression in GW2.

Just yesterday, to farm blood from skelks.

clay.7849:

Lol, ya I got the sarcasm.

I dunno, as a GW1 only player, I guess I don’t understand the need to have lots of different tiers of level 80 gear. I never minded just showing off with the cosmetics. No one else can see those damage numbers anyways lol.

Remember, GW1 also had “tiers” of effectiveness. Only it manifested itself in titles, not gear.

Tolas.2458:

reading through this thread, im amazed how quick people are to attack anyone with a theory based on observation, and throws out any thought to the possibility of such events.

either people have forgotten to critically think critically about these possibilities, or anet forces are in full swing to demonize any criticism

i honestly dont have an opinion on the whole ecto prices, since i dont buy or sell them, but i would never throw out any opinion just because some kitten calls someone a tin foil hat wearing lunatic because he made an observation.

some people need to stop playing with their fanboy kitten and stop thinking that everyone are pure angels that work inside the company and does no wrong, remember who published this game after all.

If you bothered reading this thread at all, the posters who disprove this theory bring up very good points as to why this isn’t possible.

1. The volume of trade is very large
2. Most of trade is done by a huge number of unique individuals
3. There is absolutely no motivation/profit in doing this.

Whereas the people who are bringing up these “theories” have absolutely no solid argument to stand on. Seriously, I’m still waiting on someone to explain to me why this is “profitable.”

I’m actually quite shocked that you used the term “critical thinking,” after reading through your entire post actually. It made me chuckle.

Valanga.5942:

Salvaged one Exotic piece with Black Lion Kit… Got 0 ectos, when earlier exotics gaves at least one of them.
But keep buying evething they said

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/BL-S-Kits-vs-Master-Kits-Results-Ectos/first

Overall salvage rates of master/BLT kits have not changed since the game launch. Whether you get one ecto guaranteed is irrelevant (When was exotics a guarenteed ecto? I do not remember this). The overall ecto/salvage rate remains the same.

But oooh, a sample size of one! You win statistics, sir.

Nike.2631:

I think the big announcement that ‘people are playing too much and being rewared for it consistently is a huge problem we’re removing next patch’ is pretty much grounds to scream at the Devs.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?!?!!!!!!!!?!

pant-pant

Ok. Now the shocked market can go do whatever it wants, and people with alts can know that the Devs pretty much just hate them.

I chuckled. Good job sir, CAPS LOCK!!!!! away. But you’ll be singing their praises when you receive your precursor next week. Trust me.

EDIT: A certain poster pointed out that there are over 20 events which guarantee rare drops. So unless you’re doing Maw/FE with 10 alts, you’re really not losing much. In fact, having alts in this case is a pretty great advantage compared to a person doing all 20 events on one single character since you can camp alts in certain locations and save on WP costs.

So mmeh. I don’t think this is a big deal at all.

So I talked to John Smith the other day, and he confirmed that everyone will receive a free precursor. Next week. You hit the nail on its head, Vol.

Nike.2631:

You mean like if dungeons were gaurenteed to drop at least one rare? My goodness, the things you say…

That’ll be nice. However, it won’t solve the overflow/lag issue in the open world since the rewards won’t be mutually exclusive. People will just do open world & dungeons. If limited time, highly doubt people will choose doing dungeons (Except CoF 1, but enough people do that anyways…) over easy yellows in Maw/FE/dragons which don’t require grouping and don’t risk failure over bad PUGs.

Though honestly, an exp dungeon run gets you 2 guarenteed rares from tokens anyways, as well as close to ~1G guarenteed gold. It’ll be nice if it was buffed, but it’s not like it’s pitiful or anything.

Nike.2631:

Graybes.8251:

A great change to a huge problem!

Too many players participating on a daily basis is the kind of problem MMOs dream of having. I’m not so sure that shooting rewards in the head is a solution that’s really going to benefit ANet as much as maybe improving the stability of the events would have been.

Improving boss fights and the game engine? Definitely the better solution.

However, most likely very difficult to implement. Hence this is the best solution for now. Good to know that change is coming, and coming soon.

Vol.5241:

Yes, they are novelty, but unlike other minipets, skins, townsclothes are other novelty items, the cat costs laurels, which are fixed and you can only get one per day.

Now imagine they somehow come up with the idea to give out a precursor for 150 laurels – after you buy the cat. Or other newer items from the vendor.
Well, everyone would be po’d.

If the cat cost 100g or 1m karma, I’d definitely buy it since I can get gold/karma whenever I please. Laurels are different. I hope they do convert achievement points to laurels to make them easier to acquire

Well, but different people value different things. Some people place enough value on the cat tonic so that they’re clearly willing to take the risk of something else that may pop up in the future.

You won’t understand and your reasoning is completely valid for yourself, but people don’t think the same way =).

But none of this matters. Can someone please explain to me how this “manipulation” leads to profits? No profits = no motivation to do it = no one will do it in such a large scale.

Hey Bobby,

I think, one of the biggest excitement for me leading up the Lost Shores event was seeing these little unannounced hints in the world. Beached whales, warning signs, and random ships appearing in LA harbor and whatnot.

In my opinion, I think “teasers” should just go unannounced. Just comparing the Lost Shores build-up and the Flame and Frost teaser, the Lost Shores was just so much more exciting despite its much smaller scale because of it’s unannounced nature.

But I’m incredibly happy and grateful that you guys are building the framework. Maybe you didn’t hit the spot this time, but I am so utterly excited for what’s happening in the future.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/info/news/Game-Update-Notes-February-26-2013/first#post1639231

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Hey Ursan. I think the conspiracy this time was that ecto prices were dropping too fast, so the only reasonable explanation was that it was being manipulated. Because heaven forbid 150k ectos moving through the TP is real or anything.

I just want someone to explain to me how this “manipulation” is profitable. Like, people don’t do things on such a huge scale if it’s not profitable. I don’t understand. At all. What? Very exasperated.

But like, what is the motivation? How is this profitable? Are people buying/selling ectos at very similar buy/sell orders? They must be just destroying money then.

Just assuming if it is possible (It’s highly highly unlikely) I don’t see the motivation. Where’s the profit? Why would anyone do this?

I’m so confused. Can someone explain to me?

sostronk.8167:

Because they are clearly cutting costs on development

If you’re gonna spew stupid speculative bullkitten like this you better have a source to back it up, because no one is going to take you very seriously.

Just a quick look at Anet’s website shows they are hiring a bunch of people.

http://www.arena.net/#careers

Cutting costs on development? Sure does seem like they’re expanding.

Calae.1738:

In a video game that prints money you have to have a drain somewhere that destroys money. If some of the money created cannot be destroyed then it will simply accumulate to infinity. People trading with each other are not destroying money; they’re simply moving money from one pocket to another.

There has to be mechanisms that destroys some of the money being created in order for the money to preserve value. In an economy that fails; the people lose faith in the value of the money and the result of that is they end up creating their own money.

I’m sorry if I’m misunderstanding your post, but that is wrong. People trading through the TP are destroying money through the tax.

I think before any of you get any further into discussion, you should define fully and clearly what you constitute as grind, personally.

Some people define grind as doing the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over again.

Some people define grind as doing the same ACTION over and over and over again.

Some people define grind as something that takes a long time to do, no matter how varied the activities are.

Also how do you define “required?” If it gates you from content (Not in this game)? If it leaves you inferior to other players (Yes in this game)? Really, how important are these factors to make it “required?”

Unless you clearly lay out the definition of the terms and agree on it, there’s really no point in this discussion.

Atroras.9481:

If what you mean by filling buy orders is placing buy orders, then no. You have to have the required gold on you to place buy orders.

When I say filling buy orders, I mean providing the goods to satisfy the buy orders that other players have placed. I hope everyone is on the same page.

critickitten.1498:

Yeah, it’s less grindy than many games out there. But it’s not grind-free. I do wish people would stop trying to pretend otherwise.

Well, I don’t think anyone claims that it’s grind free. That isn’t true, and you have to admit even the two posters you quote don’t claim that. However, it is true that it’s far less grindy than other MMOs, and I’d argue that a lot of the grind isn’t as “mandatory” due to a combat system that pays a premium on smart positioning and dodging as opposed to raw numbers/stat from gear.

Joseph Skyrim.2470:

Hmm someone should take initiative and compile a list across the servers when the “big guilds” are running this stuff. That would probably be a useful site.

Didn’t think the general public got good rewards for participation though.

These guilds hand out invitations, and instructs you to rep the guild while doing these missions. In return, they get much-needed man power to complete these missions. A lot of these reps are medium-sized 50-60 man guilds who are large enough to unlock the missions but not large enough to efficiently do them, and usually doesn’t fret about large number of members not representing 100% of the time.

Here are some examples.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1a5nd7/community_guild_bounties/

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1a8ei2/looking_for_weekly_guild_mission_rewards/

Joseph Skyrim.2470:

Guild missions probably.

You can still participate in Guild Missions. Several large guilds have put out calls for public Guild Missions. You (or the OP I guess) should look into it.

Woops. Typo, added in the “no.” Sorry for the misunderstanding.

EDIT: Actually, is there? Like if you have 0 gold, are you unable to fill any buy orders? I can’t test right now, but I’d like to know the answer to this question if anyone will humor me.

Grimwolf.7163:

Surely the difficulty in fixing a problem should be at least as important as the severity of the problem, and I can’t imagine this is a difficult fix.

I’d like to point out that you can’t imagine it because you don’t actually work for the company.

I’m pretty sure they take ease of fixes into account. Problem with judging that though is that we will never know what’s easy to fix and what’s hard to fix.

Lastly, putting less priority in fixing small bugs does not mean they are never fixing small bugs. That is a leap of logic that you’re making.

Pandemoniac.4739:

I get that part – the listing fee puts downward pressure on the sale prices, but if you’re filling a buy order, why would you need the listing fee up front instead of just deducting it from the sale?

When you’re filling a buy order, there is no differentiation between “up front” and “after the fact” since the transaction happens immediately.

Pandemoniac.4739:

Well I’m embarrassed. I’m helping a friend with a project they’re working on and I must have got my wires crossed. I’ve been pounded with exchange driven changes this past week and it’s made me quite the scatterbrain (I’m looking at you NASDAQ).

I wonder if that is an intentional part of the design, or a by-product of the UI. It seems unfortunate for the folks who find something really valuable and are too broke to pay the listing fee. The gold is getting removed from the system regardless, why would it matter if it’s on the front end or back end of the deal?

Because if you list an item and remove the listing, you still lose the listing fee. I imagine it’s to encourage people to really think carefully about their prices when listing sell orders.

FirstBlood.7359:

There are many other ways to control inflation. It’s just a cheap and lazy way to do it via the trading post tax. The purpose of a market is the efficient allocation of goods and the GW2 trading post fails at it, because the tax prevents market clearing.

Why is it cheap and lazy? I think it’s quite elegant especially because it scales with inflation, as opposed to flat gold sinks.

Geotherma.2395:

I have no problem with defending :P

I have the research on Excel and Word. But there is a limit to how much data I’m willing to work on as I’m doing this at a serious time/cash cost for the benefit of others without pay. I am a full time college student, husband, father, so I’m limited on time. And if I’m spending 6 hours on “video game research” I’m probably lacking in one department or another ^^;

While I have no problem with being helpful and altruistic in and out of game, I do have my limits which are based on responsibilities that outweigh the needs of gamers. I’m sure Arenanet will never give exact numbers as people would find some way to manipulate the information. But I hope this post has given at least some decent evidence to support the fact that the developers and wiki are at least somewhat accurate.

And as I mentioned in the beginning post all these rares were various types of Armor only (except the Master kit 2) and were all level 80. They were done in one time frame and I did not stop until all 200 were salvaged. Test 1 of both kits were done on the same day, as was test two of both kits. I’m unsure if any of that changes the results, again I’d need an answer from a designer or dev or whatever. Which I do not know if they are willing, but I don’t expect them to be really. they have enough on their plate ^^

Oh no no no. I don’t mean to suggest you go out of your way to do it.

Just during normal gameplay, I salvage around 8-10 rares a day and I record everything about them. Doesn’t take too long, and my database is small but it’s growing steadily, and I can do all kinds of analysis on it because of the information I’ve recorded. I’m not gonna have 200 data points in one day of course, but over a week or a month I’ll get a pretty sizeable database.

Again, I really do appreciate the time you’ve spent on this =).

Geotherma.2395:

I’m going to suggest that the back and forth may not be the most constructive way to post in this thread, and is more likely to rack up infractions than have a good outcome. If anyone was wondering about where/when I did my own tests they were all at once acrossed several kits (They stack at 25 only) in the same place(as shown in the videos.). However I would assume that time and date don’t have a factor, although i can admit i could be wrong. But a dev or someone could clear this up easily by posting if this thread doesn’t get locked due to bickering and off-topic conversations. And just so people know I’m definitely no math whiz, these were all via calculator ^^ But thank you to those who contributed to sorting out my numbers in a more meaningful manner.

I did get a bit overzealous in defending your (and Syeria’s) sample sizes. I apologize.

Though if I may suggest one thing. I’m not sure how you’re storing your data, but I suggest attaching all the information you can on each data point. Weapon type, level, time stamp, etc. Just so as you accrue these data points and want to do some analysis later, you’ll have all the info on hand.

DarkSpirit.7046:

If you ask for feedback then I wish to know whether the salvages are done at the same time and place. If you are not interested to answer questions and instead try to force your conclusions down everyone’s throat, because you think you know everything, then I can’t help you.

Oh don’t fret. I don’t think I understand the concept of statistics. I know that I understand the concept of statistics. I also know that you don’t understand it, as evident from your posts.

By the way, please take note that I never directly refuted your original conclusion, just was highly amused by your wording and lack of understanding of statistics in that post. Nowadays the only conclusion I’m shoving down your throat is the fact that you have no idea what the concept of statistics is, and unfortunately for you that is true.

DarkSpirit.7046:

Ursan.7846:

I’m lazy.

Lol! I knew you would give that excuse when I challenged you to prove yourself.

You also knew this beforehand because I clearly stated the same thing earlier in the thread. Good job disregarding the rest of my post however. I’m glad that we could agree on your lack of understanding of the concept of statistics.

DarkSpirit.7046:

Ok, since you brought it up first, then justify, with statistical calculations, why you think the number 200 is enough to prove that BLSK would give more ectos. All I see from you so far is a lot of taunts but no math.

I’m lazy. But thankfully people have been doing the calculations, look at them.

Regardless though, it’s not about the math itself. What you’re not understanding is that in statistics, you cannot prove anything 100% unless your sample size is infinite. With finite sample sizes, you can only prove your hypothesis with near 100% confidence. As you increase your sample size, you get close to 100% but never 100%.

Which is why for most cases 95% confidence is used when proving a hypothesis. It’s not about having a sample size “large enough to account for luck.” It’s about asking yourself, with 200 data points, what is my confidence interval at, and is it acceptable to me? Because no finite sample size will completely eliminate this “luck” factor.

Which is why I chuckled at your post, because from the way you worded it you obviously do not understand the concept of statistics.

Geikamir.6329:

If I was awarded $1000 for a halfcourt basketball shot but the person behind me was awarded $10, that would be unfair.

If we both took the shot again, suceeded, and were awarded $500 each, then that attempt would be fair.

But then Person #1 would cry foul. Why am I suddenly getting rewarded less? Other person be kitten this isn’t fair.

Though I’m afraid we’re starting to argue about subjective interpretations of the word “fair” which won’t have a conclusion at all. I wanted to keep this discussion objective, but I obviously failed miserably in my original intentions. It’s good to know that you’re passionate about your opinion and willing to articulate it though.

Geikamir.6329:

No, it’s fair by definition.

Taken in a vacuum, yes.

But we’re not working in a vacuum here. You’re comparing your system to the system we have right now, which is a player-driven market. And under your new system, certain players will benefit, while others will suffer.

So it’s not.

Geikamir.6329:

What is unfair is that just because someone happens to like a dagger or greatsword better that they should be punished by paying more.

On the flipside, isn’t it also unfair then, that someone who actually wants a focus or a torch have to pay the same price as a GS/dagger, whereas in a player-driven market he’d most likely pay much less?

Geikamir.6329:

I do see your point but, while that’s it’s better to have that option than do have them be character bound, a more fair system would be to have them bought through vendors like cultural armors or dungeon merchants and erase the mystic forge from the situation all together. This is the more elegant and fair solution, by far.

Which begs the question, why is a constant, set NPC vendor price more “fair” than a market-driven, player-dictated price?

It depends on the specific prices set of course, but players who want one of the less popular Legendaries (like the focus or the spear) will be hosed. Market-driven prices puts a premium on demand. With constant NPC prices, players will even have less motivation to go for the less-popular Legendaries. Do you really want to get an underwater Legendary, when at the same price you can get a GS legendary?

Just something I’d like to point out. I am a firm believer in the opinion that the market should dictate everything. Whether your method is “fair” or not isn’t as clear cut as you try to make it.

Of course there’s the option that Anet sells these precursors for 5000G each from an NPC. Is that also fair?

I dunno guys, this looks pretty awesome.

http://i.imgur.com/RGdTQzk.jpg

Geikamir.6329:

I’m not comparing the two.

Forgive me for misunderstanding you, but this is what I understood from your post.

Geikamir.6329:

There’s no way for him to know that he could have bought it before hand, because there is no way to find out how lucky you are going to be until you gamble.

This is absolutely true. There is a ton of uncertainty if you attempt to use the MF to obtain a precursor. No one refuting this.

Geikamir.6329:

And even buying them does not have a set price. It has constantly changing goalposts based on the whims of other players. So even that you don’t know what the cost will be going in.

And then you say this. If you’re not trying to compare the uncertainty of obtaining a precursor on the MF to the “uncertainty” of purchasing said precursor on the BLT, then what are you trying to imply in this statement?

Again, there’s always an “uncertainty” with the BLT. You never know what Anet or the players do. But this “uncertainty” is only a problem if prices for precursors increase infinitely (Because I highly doubt you have a problem if they went down.). Which again, is unlikely to happen in this economic system. If players just continue to accrue gold, they will eventually reach a point where they can purchase a precursor outright, without any chance of “failure.” This is far greater amount of “certainty” than using the MF.

Despite my overuse of the word “certainty,” I do hope you’re understanding my point though.

Syeria.4812:

Using this formula against my personal data (randomly acquired rares of at least level 76) my results (converted to confidence interval at 95%):

Black Lion
1.253 ectos/salvage +/- 0.163 (13%)

Master/Mystic
0.889 ectos/salvage +/- 0.081 (9%)

This assumes I converted the standard error to confidence interval correctly (it’s been at least 7 years since I’ve done any of this, so that’s really just a question of whether the equation I googled was accurate or not).

Huh, well thanks for taking time to do the calculations. I’d actually opine that 200 is a bit too small a sample size then, assuming your calculations are correct.

DarkSpirit.7046:

And we are saying that 200 may not be enough of a sample size to account for the “luck” factor. I won’t be surprised if someone repeats this little experiment and come up with the opposite conclusion after just 200 salvages.

Hahahahahahaha

Wait what? Is 201 be large enough to account for the “luck” factor? 202? 300? 400? What arbitrary number do you think is enough of a sample size to account for the “luck” factor, I’m curious?

Though I’d like to give you the benefit of the doubt, the way you worded it makes it seem like you fail to grasp the concept of statistics.

Charismatic Harm.9683:

This is a “Hindsight is 20/20” argument. It’s a perfectly valid point though. With the ~1000g he spent on the rares, he COULD have purchased the precursor that he wanted outright….but he didn’t.

I think you misunderstand me. My entire point is directed at Geikamir’s attempt at comparing the level of uncertainty in purchasing precursors from the BLT and obtaining it from the MF.

Which is an absurd comparison.

Thraxas.6354:

What goes In = What comes Out + Accumulation

As a Chemical Engineer, this post made me nerdgasm.

Geikamir.6329:

He didn’t know he was going to spend 1000g trying before he actually did. And that’s a fact.

Well yes. That’s obvious, it’s the nature of gambling. I’m confused as to why you bring it up and what you’re trying to refute though. I don’t remember saying otherwise. Neither to I believe any posters in here have said otherwise.

I’m also confused as to how this relates to my previous posts. How does this fact change in any way, shape, or form the fact that he could have, with 100% certainty, bought a precursor in the BLT with that money?