Guild Wars 2

I suppose this thread will continue to be necro’d so I’m going to throw my opinion in it.
I will not use the stupid forge for precursors. I’ve watched my brother and a couple of others throw hundreds of gold worth of exotics for jack kitten. It breaks their spirit even though it is their fault they gambled like that. I don’t like the way precursors are acquired in this game. I say this even though I could buy a precursor if I wanted but choose not too.
My /age is very high – higher than I want to admit. I’ve played every single day since the game out. I have never seen a precursor from a drop.

And here is my tin foil hat conspiracy theory:
I play the game mostly solo (usually guildless) as do the few others I sometimes play with. We tend to never get very good drops compared with those around us that ping all the wonderful stuff they always get.
What this means is I believe the drops and drop rates are better for those in parties than those playing solo. I don’t care if I don’t have any proof. I would bet that most if not all of the people who got a precursor off a drop was in a party at the time.

Portal Master.9146:

I will not use the stupid forge for precursors. I’ve watched my brother and a couple of others throw hundreds of gold worth of exotics for jack kitten.

RNG is RNG.

I’ve seen people burn through 800g of exos and end up with trash. I’ve seen someone drop 200g and get 3 precursors.

I’ve been playing for a year, and I’ve never gotten a thing. One of our new members got a Dusk drop from a guild mission, a week after turning 80.

RNG is RNG.

I personally think Precursors should have an (extremely lengthy and difficult) alternate method of being acquired besides insert 4 exos into mystic toilet, flush, repeat.

Dand.8231:

Portal Master.9146:

I will not use the stupid forge for precursors. I’ve watched my brother and a couple of others throw hundreds of gold worth of exotics for jack kitten.

RNG is RNG.

I’ve seen people burn through 800g of exos and end up with trash. I’ve seen someone drop 200g and get 3 precursors.

I’ve been playing for a year, and I’ve never gotten a thing. One of our new members got a Dusk drop from a guild mission, a week after turning 80.

RNG is RNG.

I personally think Precursors should have an (extremely lengthy and difficult) alternate method of being acquired besides insert 4 exos into mystic toilet, flush, repeat.

I am familiar with the statistics, and aware that humans do a bad job estimating the likelihood of rare occurrences. And of course, those who get good drops — or are frustrated with their poor luck — are more likely to be loud about it, so there’s significant selection bias here in the forums and in the game.

But on the converse side, saying that it’s an RNG doesn’t actually prove that it produces an even distribution. (Even if it did, it’d produce results we consider unfair — but there’s no guarantee that it’s even fair in a mathematical sense.)

I actually got two precursors from the MF (after throwing far more than the cost of them on the TP in the form of thousands of rares and hundreds of exotics). Oddly, both were after I’d mostly given up — not when I was throwing in 50 a day, but when I randomly threw in a few later.

The process has lead me to hate the Mystic Forge as a way to get precursors — for the same reason that I dislike the lottery (that also means I refuse to buy the precursor I actually wanted from the TP). I could afford to pay cash → gems → gold → precursor pretty easily … but that leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Dand.8231:

Portal Master.9146:

I will not use the stupid forge for precursors. I’ve watched my brother and a couple of others throw hundreds of gold worth of exotics for jack kitten.

RNG is RNG.

I’ve seen people burn through 800g of exos and end up with trash. I’ve seen someone drop 200g and get 3 precursors.

I’ve been playing for a year, and I’ve never gotten a thing. One of our new members got a Dusk drop from a guild mission, a week after turning 80.

RNG is RNG.

I personally think Precursors should have an (extremely lengthy and difficult) alternate method of being acquired besides insert 4 exos into mystic toilet, flush, repeat.

this is what kittens me off
- people that have played the game for a year and see no precursor no matter what they do ! skill and game loyalty goes unrewarded
- some new player that just bought the game and just barely got 1 toon to 80 does a guild mission and gets a precursor ! unskilled new player rewarded with one of the most coveted items in the kitten game for doing absolutely nothing at all

LinseyMurdock.4165:

As a quick note, the higher the level and rarity of the things you are throwing into the forge, the better your chances of getting a Legendary Precursor.

May I ask what’s the current formula concerning the level of items?

+1: How much does the level of enemies count in terms of precursor drop rate? I mean… I get lvl80 rare items from >lvl10 enemies, does this mean that they can drop exotics too? If so, is that a lower chance or equal to lvl80 enemies?

Anet isn’t going to fix the precursor issue. They are making too much $$$ the way it is. When you have to come up with 1450 gold for the legend, there are people willing to drop 100’s of $$$ for the gems to convert so they don’t have to use the mystic toilet, or farm for gold. If anet makes precursors craftable, the price will drop by half, and that is $$$ out of anet’s pocket. End of story. I know this is an old topic, but as absolutely nothing has changed since the inception of the game on this issue, it’s still a relevant topic.

Dworkin Barriman.1275:

Anet isn’t going to fix the precursor issue. They are making too much $$$ the way it is. When you have to come up with 1450 gold for the legend, there are people willing to drop 100’s of $$$ for the gems to convert so they don’t have to use the mystic toilet, or farm for gold. If anet makes precursors craftable, the price will drop by half, and that is $$$ out of anet’s pocket. End of story. I know this is an old topic, but as absolutely nothing has changed since the inception of the game on this issue, it’s still a relevant topic.

If you’re willing to drop 100’s of $$ for the precursor, you’re also willing to drop 100’s of $$ for the other components which are required to make a legendary. And the precursor is only about 1/4 – 1/2 of the total price of the legendary (less for a few; source: gw2legendary.com ); making precursors more easily available would make the other components go up in price.

I’ve spent a lot on gems, and have converted some to gold; I would say that most people willing to spend money on games like this are willing to spend it because they’re enjoying the game. Making precursors more easily available wouldn’t change that equation, nor would it change the fact that there are always other things you can acquire.

But most of the requests aren’t to make precursors easy — just to provide a mechanism which isn’t pure RNG. Pure RNG produces results which look unfair (since not everyone will have anything remotely resembling the average luck, and as you add more people you’ll see more outliers in both directions).

I’m just going to put my three cents here, as this is something that has caught my attention and been bothering me for a while.

While I understand Arena Net wanting to keep precursors the way they drop now without change, I don’t think it’s fair to the players who have been so devoted to their game. As has been previously stated, veteran players have been trying to get precursors for so long that it has become demoralizing, and then new players show up, get one by chance, and go “Hey that was easy! I don’t know why everyone complains so much.”

I look at the market for precursors and I find myself saying… I’m never going to get a legendary. You can certainly say that I should just buy gems to convert into gold, but at the price these precursors are currently at in the trade post, that would mean I would need to throw at LEAST $250 at Arena Net. And unfortunately, all of the money I make right now goes directly to rent, my car, gas, food, etc. I don’t have a ton of money to spend on GW2. When I do have money to spend, I’ll gladly buy gems, which I have been able to do lately.

Before anyone flips out, I’d like to point out that I don’t mind spending money on Guild Wars 2. First of all, I totally understand that they need to make money somehow and since it’s not a subscription based game, naturally they’re going to turn towards their gem shop. But when I’m buying gems, the things I like to buy most often include town clothing or new armors. I ESPECIALLY love buying new armor sets that allow me to wear them across all armor classes and not restrict me to light, medium and heavy. It does bother me a little that a lot of Asura helmets cut off the ears, but that’s another matter entirely. Point is, I don’t mind spending money on the game.

The problem is… I feel like the precursor market has become a way for Arena Net to easily cash in on gems because people are that desperate to make their precursors. So rather than offering something worth buying in the gem store (which as I’ve said, I’d gladly throw money away for more armor skins), they instead allow people to get away with charging ludicrous amounts of gold for precursors.

I’ve been playing this game since the first public beta, and I would -love- to be able to create the Incinerator… but Spark currently costs around 1300 gold. As I’ve said, that means I’d need to spend at least $250 on gems just to convert them to gold, and that’s assuming I’d get ~10 gold per 100 gems. And that’s $250 for a PRECURSOR. Not a Legendary, a Precursor! The most expensive Legendary right now is Eternity, which last I checked was just 2 gold away from being 5000 gold. Either you have a really good paying job to afford these things, or you sell your soul to GW2 and farm like you’ve never farmed before in an MMO.

So what’s my suggestion for getting around this problem? Simple:

TL;DR

Make precursors something that drop from something equivalent to the Black Lion Chest. But instead of calling it a Black Lion Chest, call it something like “Legendary Chest” or something. And make the key used to open said Legendary Chest be only available on the Gem Store, available for … I don’t know, 150 gems like the Black Lion Key, or perhaps 200 since there’s a chance of a precursor being inside?

Point is, Arena Net would still be making money off of Legendary Key purchases, the chances of acquiring a Precursor would increase since it can be found off of Elites or Champion mobs, and there would be less people who are upset about how infrequently they come across Precursors while playing the game.

Obviously a precursor wouldn’t be the only thing that drops from a Legendary Chest. It’d need to be something that rewards you with things like obsidian shards, ectos, tier 6 crafting materials, etc. Stuff that helps to build the Legendary, essentially. So people would no doubt still complain about RNG associated with chests, but it’s a better alternative to just hoping for a luck-of-the-draw Mystic Toilet attempt.

I didn´t read all the posts here, just the first page, well half of it…
but I´d like to share with you my current experience on forging a precursor:

for the last day I put lvl 80 rare greatsword after lvl 80 rare greatsword into the mystic forge. By now I put about 2000 gold (yes TWO THOUSAND) into this kitten. without a precursor.
(how the kitten can ONE human have such bad luck?!?)
I hate my life so much allready…

chrushl.9485:

I didn´t read all the posts here, just the first page, well half of it…
but I´d like to share with you my current experience on forging a precursor:

for the last day I put lvl 80 rare greatsword after lvl 80 rare greatsword into the mystic forge. By now I put about 2000 gold (yes TWO THOUSAND) into this kitten. without a precursor.
(how the kitten can ONE human have such bad luck?!?)
I hate my life so much allready…

If it’s any comfort to you, my rough estimate for not getting anything from the forge after 2000g in your case should be around a 30% probability, so your luck isn’t abysmal.

chrushl.9485:

I didn´t read all the posts here, just the first page, well half of it…
but I´d like to share with you my current experience on forging a precursor:

for the last day I put lvl 80 rare greatsword after lvl 80 rare greatsword into the mystic forge. By now I put about 2000 gold (yes TWO THOUSAND) into this kitten. without a precursor.
(how the kitten can ONE human have such bad luck?!?)
I hate my life so much allready…

And meanwhile I got mine with 4 greatswords bought with dungeon tokens in my first try. I feel dirty.

2500g worth of rares and exo’s down the MF today and nothing to show for it… Half of which was gems. Should’ve just placed a buy order for Dawn and used the gems for T6 mats or LS skins.

Pay 2 lose…

Guild mate of ours has now crafted 81 precursor in the forge. Yes he dumps every coin he has into buying exotics to craft them, but he’s the luckiest RNG SOB we know. (guild message keeps a running total so we don’t lose track).

My wife and I have so far crafted (or gotten as a drop) ZERO. Thousands of hours, thousands of gold.

RNG for one of the shiniest trinkets in the game is a miserable mistress and (other than Scarlett) the single worst decision Anet has ever made.

2300 rare gs down the toild 1000g and noting only 100exotis gs back i realy dont one give soom guy 1.5k g who just site all day ad blt and plays the marked . i hope the make soom precurse crafting or nother item thad makes the change higher and makes them prices trop back to normal 500g after all the set the where cousing precurser crafting but thad was year ago

I find it funny how PvP players spend 1000s of hours honing there skills to compete in tournaments… and if they place at least 2nd… they’ll get a precursor. You have to be the best players in NA to get a precursor for PvP.

And some guy on the PvP forums got a precursor from doing a hotjoin.

RNG in this game is great.

so i have ben playing this game almost sense launch !
i have never seen a precursor lol ….. do i just have the worst luck in the world or what lol

to be honest it is kinda a bummer to be playing this game for so long and never see a precursor !!!! when people i know around me have found 2 or 3 ‘_’

i dont really know what to say …. but u would think they would reward old players

and before i turn this in to a rant.

the “legendary” if they really are that big a money maker ….
dont u think they would have come out with some more skins by now ?

I’ve thrown in thousands of rares, both specific weapons and junk rares from bosses, in efforts to grab a pre. Just won’t happen. I ‘hit paydirt’ when I bought 4 exotic staves one night before logging off, and the Legend appears. RNG will be RNG.

Last night I was in LA sorting through some inventory when one guy at the forge manages to get a Tooth of Frostfang after 5 rare drops in the forge. No more than two minutes later he pikes up again – this time he gets Spark as well. Again, with just rares.

RNG – why you be so cruel…

Gray.1704:

TL;DR

Make precursors something that drop from something equivalent to the Black Lion Chest. But instead of calling it a Black Lion Chest, call it something like “Legendary Chest” or something. And make the key used to open said Legendary Chest be only available on the Gem Store, available for … I don’t know, 150 gems like the Black Lion Key, or perhaps 200 since there’s a chance of a precursor being inside?

Point is, Arena Net would still be making money off of Legendary Key purchases, the chances of acquiring a Precursor would increase since it can be found off of Elites or Champion mobs, and there would be less people who are upset about how infrequently they come across Precursors while playing the game.

Obviously a precursor wouldn’t be the only thing that drops from a Legendary Chest. It’d need to be something that rewards you with things like obsidian shards, ectos, tier 6 crafting materials, etc. Stuff that helps to build the Legendary, essentially. So people would no doubt still complain about RNG associated with chests, but it’s a better alternative to just hoping for a luck-of-the-draw Mystic Toilet attempt.

No. Please No. No gear or materials or anything other than convenience/cosmetics should be generated through the gem store or gem gated items

Anyway, The current system of obtaining the biggest part of a “legendary” weapon is in no way legendary. It is pure luck or farming gold to buy from someone who got one based on pure luck. It would be MUCH more interesting and, to me at least, enjoyable if the way to get a legendary were some extended story (though that would take a lot of development time but would probably be the proper way to do it since it is about becoming a “legend” after all), tiered crafting similar to mawdrey using drops (not 1% chance drops. 10 of an item at a 50% drop is preferable to 1 at a 5% drop even though the average number of completions would still be 20) from different World bosses/dungeon bosses/fractal bosses/etc. Others have suggested awards from new achievements.

Pure luck is not legendary. Farming gold is not legendary especially for a game that prides itself on not having the need to farm.

Just my 2 cents

After many many weeks of flushing the Mystic Toilet, i havent got my dusk/dawn. I now think that ANet doesnt give a crap about balancing prices at all.

Dusk is 1.45k gold as per typing this and i just threw 8 pearl broadswords and got back 2 pearl broadswords. I just want to be struck by lightning now to just prove that i have the luck. I seriously dont mind spending hours to farm for mats to craft one or throwing 500 exotics into the toilet and having a 100% chance of getting one rather than having a unknown chance. I know i can get one at the very least, but leaving my fate to RNG knowing that im one unlucky poop is disheartening and cruel. I know some of you have “lucked” your way to a leRNGary, but come on, just because you have one, doesnt mean you should deny everyone else the opportunity of having one.

Also, Zommoros is a big piece of poo.

I’m just going to write this briefly since this thread got dredged up. There is a set precursor recipe. It’s extremely basic, here goes:
.
.
1000~1400 gold + 1 Trading Post interaction = 1 precursor of your choice
.
.
There it is folks, you have a 100% precursor rate with that recipe. Aside from being a hint snide, it’s entirely true, and entirely possible. All this recipe requires of a player is work.

You must work to obtain what you desire, people need to instill this in their views. There are people who are lucky, which is great, but expecting to be one is a fool’s mistake. You are entitled to nothing. Give up on the idea that you’re going to be the luckiest person in the world of Tyria. Be realistic, a precursor is not going to drop for you, a dusk won’t just fall into your lap from Zomoros. If you are fortunate enough to be Blessed by Fate and RNG gives you a precursor wrapped up with a bow, congratulations, go skip home. More often that will not happen, and in that case you have lost nothing by maintaining a realistic look at things, and will eventually receive your well deserved precursor through work. Welcome to harsh reality folks, you get out what you put in, nothing more is guaranteed. No one has the right to complain about any mystic forging follies, you simply rolled the dice (that are evidently stacked against you) and lost. Would you have put that capital together with some amount of work, you would have had an assured return on your input.

Rialen.1524:

I’m just going to write this briefly since this thread got dredged up. There is a set precursor recipe. It’s extremely basic, here goes:
.
.
1000~1400 gold + 1 Trading Post interaction = 1 precursor of your choice
.
.
There it is folks, you have a 100% precursor rate with that recipe. Aside from being a hint snide, it’s entirely true, and entirely possible. All this recipe requires of a player is work.

You must work to obtain what you desire, people need to instill this in their views. There are people who are lucky, which is great, but expecting to be one is a fool’s mistake. You are entitled to nothing. Give up on the idea that you’re going to be the luckiest person in the world of Tyria. Be realistic, a precursor is not going to drop for you, a dusk won’t just fall into your lap from Zomoros. If you are fortunate enough to be Blessed by Fate and RNG gives you a precursor wrapped up with a bow, congratulations, go skip home. More often that will not happen, and in that case you have lost nothing by maintaining a realistic look at things, and will eventually receive your well deserved precursor through work. Welcome to harsh reality folks, you get out what you put in, nothing more is guaranteed. No one has the right to complain about any mystic forging follies, you simply rolled the dice (that are evidently stacked against you) and lost. Would you have put that capital together with some amount of work, you would have had an assured return on your input.

After 5000 hours of playing this game and not even getting so much as an ascended box to show for it much less a precursor, THIS is how I got mine. I did events. I ran fractals. I farmed my kitten off, I bought rare items and dyes when they were cheap and I knew that EVENTUALLY when they availability ran out that they price would jump up and they would be really worth something. I used skill points to craft lodestones and sold those. I did waste about 100g of exotics into the toilet. Nope. Not when that was 1/7th of the amount I needed to buy it straight out.
Now I just have to worry about people making snide comments about me buying my legendary because I’m an RPer.

After 2000 hours of playing with a few lucky ascended pieces (usually useless to me) I realize about 1995 hours ago that legendaries were pretty ugly and any benefit from wasn’t worth it.

Rialen.1524:

I’m just going to write this briefly since this thread got dredged up. There is a set precursor recipe. It’s extremely basic, here goes:
.
.
1000~1400 gold + 1 Trading Post interaction = 1 precursor of your choice
.
.
There it is folks, you have a 100% precursor rate with that recipe. Aside from being a hint snide, it’s entirely true, and entirely possible. All this recipe requires of a player is work.

You must work to obtain what you desire, people need to instill this in their views. There are people who are lucky, which is great, but expecting to be one is a fool’s mistake. You are entitled to nothing. Give up on the idea that you’re going to be the luckiest person in the world of Tyria. Be realistic, a precursor is not going to drop for you, a dusk won’t just fall into your lap from Zomoros. If you are fortunate enough to be Blessed by Fate and RNG gives you a precursor wrapped up with a bow, congratulations, go skip home. More often that will not happen, and in that case you have lost nothing by maintaining a realistic look at things, and will eventually receive your well deserved precursor through work. Welcome to harsh reality folks, you get out what you put in, nothing more is guaranteed. No one has the right to complain about any mystic forging follies, you simply rolled the dice (that are evidently stacked against you) and lost. Would you have put that capital together with some amount of work, you would have had an assured return on your input.

I have had 4 precursors drop for me (1 in the past week — 3 from the MF and one from fractals); I sold one since it was a second copy. I’ve also bought one precursor from the TP. The precursor system sucks — “fair” RNG produces results which appear manifestly unfair in terms of results. I think my luck with RNG is approximately what you’d expect.

I have no problem with work, nor — for that matter — with converting cash to gems to gold (I have a job … it should be easy to do the math about time/reward). But the details matter, and saying that it requires “work” to get a precursor doesn’t necessarily mean that the work required is well designed or fun to do. (And to be clear — this is a game; even long term goals should be designed in such a way that they’re fun … not easy, but fun.)

linuxotaku.4731:

I have had 4 precursors drop for me (1 in the past week — 3 from the MF and one from fractals); I sold one since it was a second copy. I’ve also bought one precursor from the TP. The precursor system sucks — “fair” RNG produces results which appear manifestly unfair in terms of results. I think my luck with RNG is approximately what you’d expect.

I have no problem with work, nor — for that matter — with converting cash to gems to gold (I have a job … it should be easy to do the math about time/reward). But the details matter, and saying that it requires “work” to get a precursor doesn’t necessarily mean that the work required is well designed or fun to do. (And to be clear — this is a game; even long term goals should be designed in such a way that they’re fun … not easy, but fun.)

Congratulations, you are one of the lucky ‘Blessed by Fate’, and there is nothing wrong with that. It happens, which is great, seriously. I am simply presenting a realistic view on the matter.

People are arguing that they deserve a precursor in this thread because they played the lottery and lost, but they still deserve something for the input. They don’t. People are arguing there isn’t a guaranteed way to get a precursor. There is. I’m posting a response to those people, and at the same time giving a rational perspective on the implemented high end system of this game. I in no way am saying the current system is fun, effective, or pragmatic. In my honest opinion, it’s absolutely terrible. I agree that the entire system needs an overhaul, and that it does need to be enjoyable. That said, we have to take what it is at face value and go from there (that being my last post) for the time being.

Rialen.1524:

linuxotaku.4731:

I have had 4 precursors drop for me (1 in the past week — 3 from the MF and one from fractals); I sold one since it was a second copy. I’ve also bought one precursor from the TP. The precursor system sucks — “fair” RNG produces results which appear manifestly unfair in terms of results. I think my luck with RNG is approximately what you’d expect.

Congratulations, you are one of the lucky ‘Blessed by Fate’, and there is nothing wrong with that. It happens, which is great, seriously. I am simply presenting a realistic view on the matter.

I didn’t get lucky with the mystic forge — I threw in many thousands of rares and many hundreds of exotics; I was perfectly willing to throw gold at it as long as it took. And my luck there is approximately what you’d expect — it cost about a little more to get my precursors that way than it would have getting them via the trading post (which is within the normal variance for RNG).

Rialen.1524:

People are arguing that they deserve a precursor in this thread because they played the lottery and lost, but they still deserve something for the input. They don’t. People are arguing there isn’t a guaranteed way to get a precursor. There is. I’m posting a response to those people, and at the same time giving a rational perspective on the implemented high end system of this game. I in no way am saying the current system is fun, effective, or pragmatic. In my honest opinion, it’s absolutely terrible. I agree that the entire system needs an overhaul, and that it does need to be enjoyable. That said, we have to take what it is at face value and go from there (that being my last post) for the time being.

It sounds like we agree that the current system is a horrible implementation. (I know at least some of the reasons for it — it’s an item sink for rares & exotics; positive surprises do generate a strong psychological effect and encourage people to be evangelists or — like me — to make the less popular legendary whose precursor dropped; and it rate limits legendary creation by type. But that’s different from saying that I like the system.)

The trading post is a sure way to get a precursor for some players, but it only works if there are people playing at the non-guaranteed ways of getting precursors — the system works only because there are people throwing in rare and exotic greatswords in the hopes of getting a dusk or a dawn.

I included my own experience to point out that I’ve gotten precursors all 3 ways (drop, MF, TP) — and I still dislike the system.

I spent about 500G in Mystic toilet,then i aborted the project of making a legendary weapon.
Until i got Dawn from a JP Chest

Korsbaek.9803:

VidGhost.3215:

Your wrong!

Anet has stated that you have as much chance of getting a precursor weapon on your first try on the mystic forge ( or open world L80 exotic drop ) as you do on your 10,000th try! .. its the same odds every time it is a lottery in every sense

So someone could play GW2 for 10 years every day and still not get a Precursor. Its unlikely but 100% possible and there in lies the problem.

The only 100% way is buying it on the TP

nope im not wrong each has the same chance yes but if you do enough with that chance then your stacit chance is higher its simple math example if you do it 10% chances looking before you done it you will have more then 10% chance to get someting you need;)
and i said that the said got so close to 0% chance for it to not get a precourcer but i never said it where 0% only stupiedly close

Yes..you are wrong..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

JCROY.5730:

Korsbaek.9803:

VidGhost.3215:

Your wrong!

Anet has stated that you have as much chance of getting a precursor weapon on your first try on the mystic forge ( or open world L80 exotic drop ) as you do on your 10,000th try! .. its the same odds every time it is a lottery in every sense

So someone could play GW2 for 10 years every day and still not get a Precursor. Its unlikely but 100% possible and there in lies the problem.

The only 100% way is buying it on the TP

nope im not wrong each has the same chance yes but if you do enough with that chance then your stacit chance is higher its simple math example if you do it 10% chances looking before you done it you will have more then 10% chance to get someting you need;)
and i said that the said got so close to 0% chance for it to not get a precourcer but i never said it where 0% only stupiedly close

Yes..you are wrong..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

You can parse that to determine that the original was incorrect? I’m not sure what the poster was claiming.

I would say that if you decide you’re going to keep going until you get the precursor you want (i.e. throwing more rares/exotics at it), the likelihood that you will fail to get the precursor you want approaches zero as your horizon (how much you’re willing to spend — in the future, not in the past) approaches infinity.

In practical terms, if the rate is 0.16%, then if you’re willing to do 100 (== ~300 rares, ignoring exotic outputs) tries, then you have about an 15% chance of at least one success (the converse of 0.9984 ^ 100). If you’re willing to do 1000 tries (== 3000 rares), then you have about an 80% chance of success. If you’re willing to do 10,000 tries (== 30,000 rares), then the chance you will not get a precursor in at least one of them is 1.11e-7 — your chances are on the order of 9,000,000:1. OTOH, given the number of people playing GW2, if everyone were to try this there might well be a person who winds up with that set of unlucky rolls.

If we expand again to 100,000 tries, then the chance of no precursors is 2.8e-70 … so vanishingly small that it is exceedingly unlikely to happen while we watch. Of course, ignoring the exotics (which you could sell back), that would cost on the order of 180k gold … so it’s also prohibitively expensive.

I think the bottom line is that BiS gear should NOT be RNG. We complain a lot about Anet time-gating things, but I think this is one time where a time-gate would be infinitely more acceptable than what we have currently.

If someone told me that there are legendary weapons in this game but I’ll have to put in 500-1,000 hours of gameplay to get one, I’d say that makes sense since it’s BiS gear. Plus it would be really cool to see somebody with a legendary because you’d know they put a lot of time into GW2 and deserve their reward. It would be impressive.

But, that’s not what happens. Instead you have players that put thousands of hours into the game and get nothing, thousands of gold into the forge and get nothing … and then players who throw 4 random rares into the forge and get a pre, then have one drop from a JP box, and then 1 from temple zerg, and 1 from WvW, etc.

The system makes no sense. Didn’t from the beginning. Anet’s worst mistake with this game was failing to include an epic way to obtain your legendary weapon that rewarded hard work and dedication to the game they created.

Oh, and to the person that suggested the simple solution is to just have all of us buy them off the TP…. That’s not viable either. If everybody stopped throwing their money into the forge and saved up to buy pre’s off the TP, there would be less pre’s on the TP in general because of the one’s lost from people not using the forge, and since more players would be buying pre’s from the TP, the supply would dwindle faster.

My only thought after playing for ~three hours every night for over two years and not getting a prer-cursor is that Anet dropped that ball on this item.
Look, this is just a game not a job or life choice. I am not saying that I should have a Legendary, but at least a per-cursor!

The idea of dumping tones of items (real time to get) into a tub to get a Legendary by luck is so NOT LEGENDARY. Anet is way out of touch on this topic, and with no change in policy after two years makes it even more so.

But the BiS gear is NOT RNG….it’s also obtainable via crafting (Ascended).

A Legendary is not needed to have a BiS weapon…. It provides visual BLING and is more flexible than Ascended (changeable stats) but not any statistical advantage over Ascended gear.

linuxotaku.4731:

JCROY.5730:

Korsbaek.9803:

VidGhost.3215:

Your wrong!

Anet has stated that you have as much chance of getting a precursor weapon on your first try on the mystic forge ( or open world L80 exotic drop ) as you do on your 10,000th try! .. its the same odds every time it is a lottery in every sense

So someone could play GW2 for 10 years every day and still not get a Precursor. Its unlikely but 100% possible and there in lies the problem.

The only 100% way is buying it on the TP

nope im not wrong each has the same chance yes but if you do enough with that chance then your stacit chance is higher its simple math example if you do it 10% chances looking before you done it you will have more then 10% chance to get someting you need;)
and i said that the said got so close to 0% chance for it to not get a precourcer but i never said it where 0% only stupiedly close

Yes..you are wrong..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

You can parse that to determine that the original was incorrect? I’m not sure what the poster was claiming.

I would say that if you decide you’re going to keep going until you get the precursor you want (i.e. throwing more rares/exotics at it), the likelihood that you will fail to get the precursor you want approaches zero as your horizon (how much you’re willing to spend — in the future, not in the past) approaches infinity.

In practical terms, if the rate is 0.16%, then if you’re willing to do 100 (== ~300 rares, ignoring exotic outputs) tries, then you have about an 15% chance of at least one success (the converse of 0.9984 ^ 100). If you’re willing to do 1000 tries (== 3000 rares), then you have about an 80% chance of success. If you’re willing to do 10,000 tries (== 30,000 rares), then the chance you will not get a precursor in at least one of them is 1.11e-7 — your chances are on the order of 9,000,000:1. OTOH, given the number of people playing GW2, if everyone were to try this there might well be a person who winds up with that set of unlucky rolls.

If we expand again to 100,000 tries, then the chance of no precursors is 2.8e-70 … so vanishingly small that it is exceedingly unlikely to happen while we watch. Of course, ignoring the exotics (which you could sell back), that would cost on the order of 180k gold … so it’s also prohibitively expensive.

If I am not reading correct, sorry for misreading

If I do read correct however..stop adding up attempts!
Eacht attempt is on its own..there is NO connection whatsoever by the amount of tries!
Thats is what my posted link is about it is a mindgame :P