Guild Wars 2

Chris Cleary.8017:

I’ll pitch in on this thread, as there seems to be some confusion about this situation.

The auto-cast feature was never intended to be used as an AFK farming mechanism, and usage of the auto-cast feature while AFK is fine as long as it is not used to facilitate unattended gameplay.

Mastery auto-loot also stopping players from being flagged afk seems like a bug instead of a feature, and I’ll be sure to bring it up today while we have a chat about this internally.

1) Using skill (1 or more) while AFK
2) AFKing in a place where it is beneficial for your character to be at
3) Unresponsive to interaction with GMs

If all 3 of these apply to what you are doing, you may get actioned for it.

You should probably mention that even if All 3 (AKA no autocast skill) don’t apply GMs will still screw with you by forcing you offline (Another client has logged into this account) and moving your character.

I know it’s not an ‘action’ taken against the account but you might as well tell people you’re going to do it.

<3 Tene

Lord Hammer Hand.4815:

Buffalo Bruiser.3567:

Lord Hammer Hand.4815:

people need to upload losing matches not winning.

Why does it have to be a losing video to comment on an individuals play? Makes no sense.

hard to comment what OP did wrong when the whole game, they are winning. all u can say is maybe u can do this or do that. when enemy is destroying u, u can see all ur fault and team fault is why is that happening.

Polite response: I only had about an hour. 4v6s would show absolutely nothing. I wanted to get some advice so I posted what I had, I’ll try to record some other matches, but I’d rather some advice than no advice.

volpenvieh.3201:

I think in that match you were lucky that the enemy didn’t pay much attention towards you so you could just stand next to the fight, pewpew a bit and use search&rescue once in a while. You claim to play support in the first post but I don’t see you supporting much (apart from the rezzes).
Which build are you using btw?

I perhaps worded it poorly. I switched to druid because we had no support players. What I was trying to say is that I only play druid when I have to switch to it because the team comp lacked sustain/support. Recorded it anyways cause I had limited play time and needed a video, the other matches I had teammates rage immediately after mid fight so no real point posting games where people are actively trying to speed the loss.

Normally play mez or dh but before players switched we had 3 mez,1 thief, 1 rev. Didn’t think that was gonna work and didn’t think that 2 mez 1 thief 1 rev 1 DH was much better. Another mez swapped to scrapper at the same time I went druid so that seemed to help out.

So I play druid rarely, it’s pretty much the MB build for lb/staff SNR, I think two of the sigils might be changed.

Even though it’s not something I play all that often, I still wanted feedback.

Zoom is out the max it goes, is there another setting I can tweak? Agree that I should rotate the camera more.

Honestly I’m not comfortable with staff at all same with CA, much more used to GS but trying to pick it up. I’m not a good (relatively) ele player so druid was kinda all that was left. I used to play the LB/GS but advice I was given is that switching to the mender/SNR build would be a better choice.

Also

Winning your 1 v 1 or holding a point 1 v 2/3 doesn’t mean kitten
Even if you’re successfully doing the above, if your team mates are losing their fights, it pretty much means you’re not carrying. Even if you’re doing a fantastic job winning a 1 v 3, if your team mates are losing the 4 v 2 and losing the other points then you need to join the team fight to help them. It’s a team game so play more like a team and help them.

Is the advice from another thread that I’ve been trying to follow, not trying to disagree with anyone, but still have no idea what to do? I agree I should have looked and seen the other player coming mid, but say I had, do I stay or go?

Also forgot to ask, is this consistent play with sapphire/t0 ruby? I’ve been told some things (varying greatly about what tier I belong at) and would kinda like to know? And are the mistakes I make on par with double or triple capping home at start? I mean I hope they aren’t, but someone did tell me that.

babayum.1895:

what is the point to upload a win and ask for advice on losing games?

Well the other games I recorded tonight had people raging after the mid fight so there’s no real point in uploading a 3v5 or 4v5.

And I appreciate the other advice. Part of the reason I did some of those things is that I don’t trust people to win fights even if we have the plus 1, in my matches we seem to lose those about half the time and even fights 75%+ of the time. So tbh, I’d rather lose mid and win far than watch far wipe, and then get rolled mid. I’ll try to work on it though.

Stuck in Ruby 0 pip land-3 weeks and running

First random match of the night. I generally only play ranger when no one else is playing support.

Serious advice appreciated, more general than ranger specific preferred.

And no, I don’t think I deserve legendary, just better than the equivalent of sapphire.

And please don’t turn this into a MMR hell discussion, yes I won this one, but I tend to go about 5-10 games of losses for each win.

rwolf.9571:

I think taking a long break is a a good way to get back in. I was stuck in T3-4 emerald for a week, later finally made it into sapphire, then took a 3 week break. Resetting my outlook on pvp.

I came back to a 9 game winstreak looking at it from a different perspective. (either that, all the good player base moved on or quit. Leaving easy matches?)

Main change in my play style was play to carry. And recognize which people on your team is making bad decisions. And try to counter that best way possible. I was in true MMR hell, but it is possible to climb out of that hole and end up with winstreaks.

You do realize you decayed your rating up for three weeks right?

Ayrilana.1396:

But how do you know that you played better than your team? People tend to judge themselves less critically than they do others.

Sure, I’ll take a stab at it, almost have the list memorized.

I did not:
Duo or triple queue as an all thief team to farm kills.
Brag about my KDR as thief in team chat and say with that good a ratio we should not have lost.
AFK for the first minute of the match then suicide far then AFK again.
Double or triple cap home at start.
Camp out an area far from points and challenge the enemy team to 1v1s in map chat.
Play an axe torch/sword something ranger and try to bonfire cap points and get kitteny about no one supporting her strategy by immob’ing things in the fire.
Rush lord at start.
Go treb,die,repair treb,die,repair treb,die,repair treb……..
Place portals on downed players both enemy and friendly.
Demand the mesmer run aoe condi cleanse to support the DH’s vs necro.
Refuse to ever teamfight because they have necro’s and necro’s are op so we should run everytime a necro comes near the point.
Call home then suicide far.
Announce that I’ve never played this class before oh and btw I’m a support rev so I’ll need to be protected, same for conjure weapons ele….etc
Upon dying to a 1v1 at far, repeat the process the entire kittening game.
Call targets on enemy pets and friendly players constantly the entire game overwriting the actual called targets
Announce in teamchat that you can’t kill ele’s, necro’s,rev’s or scrappers (pick from the list) and the enemy team has too many so you won’t fight and will only backcap empty points the entire game.

Yes, I make mistakes, plenty of them, but there’s no way the above list should be occurring. I mis-rotate, I lose 1v1s I should have won, I moa into dodges. I could make a list just as long of things I do wrong, but they aren’t things like the list above.

Lord Hammer Hand.4815:

here’s the thing none of those players who said they in a MMR HELL, posted any of their losing game video. so everytime some says mmrhell and they have crappy teamates that why they are losing. take it with a grain of salt.

Because let’s face it…people in MMR hell are not great players. No one wants to post a video so they can get ripped to shreds for play mistakes by the ‘lovely’ people who troll/post on these forums…..but maybe, maybe they could have even worse teammates. That’s all MMR hell is, where you play better than people on your team and it doesn’t matter.

The entitled
Legendary Grinder
Legendaries Aren’t For Everyone
Legendary Queue Time
Legendary On Five Accounts So You Can Too
:p

Ensign.2189:

Tenebria.7239:

So what, pick the model that best supports your case

No no no, do not ever do this. No matter what you’re looking at you can always find some kook that’ll sell you your opinion in a shiny wrapper, no matter how much or how little truth there is to it. Do this only if you’re trying to score points in a debate and don’t care a whit about the truth.

If you want to sift through differing opinions you have to look at the assumptions and evidence each is offering and figure out where the balance lies between them. It’s not the easy road, but ‘just pick the evidence that supports your opinion!’ is an all too common form of idiocy that’ll never get you anywhere (outside of a political ‘debate’, sadly).

Meep, shouldn’t post when I’m tired. Should have said, there are three opinions of how it should be modeled, even the the model that best supports your case shows unhappy things.

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Mine doesn’t do graphical output yet, but here’s ensigns. I disagree with his assumption that there exist matches where your opponent has a 90% chance to win that you can win 10% of the time, but it’s the most favorable to the devs of the models.
In it you can see the error range on player skill vs MMR and the error range on player skill vs player rank(num pips) is larger than what I would consider to be a fair system.

https://dviw3bl0enbyw.cloudfront.net/uploads/forum_attachment/file/221876/ratingrankot.png

Yeah I don’t understand that at all. As far as I’m concerned I’m looking at a series of graphs with very little context. What are the player rank and player skill data points pulled from?

It’s a normal distribution? i think of player skill then plugged into a model of the matchmaking system with no bias towards play times. Those are the results , player skill=Actual MMR of a player, MMR=system determined MMR of a player, player rank=number of pips that player has. So basically input= player skill, output= rank and system MMR.

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

As far as I’m concerned, people have an overblown opinion of how good they are and they are also convinced that they should get to legendary as long as they keep queuing ranked. I don’t think that everyone should get legendary, and I think that what people consider “MMR hell” is actually the right bracket for them if they can’t get out of it. The fact that exceptional players can get to legendary without many problems on an alt account, which would have no MMR to “help” them, convinces me even more of this.

Or the problem that alt accounts have an easier time progressing than accounts that have a low mmr from a previous season……

No one is saying that legendary players can’t make legendary, MMR hell is mid tier ruby players being stuck at ruby t0 with teammates that threecap home, rush enemy lord etc…

I’m saying I can win with teammates like those.

Grats, you’re probably better than a mid tier ruby….

Right. So the point is that those who cannot do the same should be exactly in the spot they are. Not because they have “bad teammates” who hold them back. But because their own play does not merit reaching a higher division.

No the point is, that they should be able to reach a point where they are the ones that make mistakes that matter some of the time and play well and it matters some of the time, not be at the point where their teammates make those mistakes. I’m not saying they should make diamond for kittens sake. I’m just saying the system shouldn’t be locking players that rush enemy lord or triple cap home with players who know that’s a bad idea. That’s all…..

That may be your point, but it certainly is not mine. I’m sort of trying to decipher your first sentence. Anyway, I would have to disagree. Mainly because this matchmaking seems to want to put you on the same team as players in the same division/MMR as you. While MMR is not necessarily an indicator of skill, it at least will actually tend to put similarly skilled players together. So while you might know that triple capping home is generally a bad idea, you might still be at a similar skill level to those players. I mean, knowing where to go at all times is important but there are plenty of other things you could still be bad enough at which would put you on their level

Except that it doesn’t put players together based on skill, it’s very sensitive to loss/win streaks and with the safe pip checkpoints it prevents the system from evening out. The system lets MMR spiral low or high by the way it works and it’s hard to recover. There is no where for players to drop to at t0 ruby, even if I win 30% of my matches and they win 15% of their matches they still are in the same matchmaking pool. (FAir note, I play at offpeak hours so it stretches the range even more)

Is there proof of what you are saying? Like has a dev said that it is sensitive to loss/win streaks? Or is this a conclusion you have come to from observing matchmaking as a player?

Also, as you say you play at a offpeak hours. I am curious how your perspective might shift if you played continually at peak hours

All three people that modeled it showed that it had problems when your MMR dropped from your skill and that the system pushed it lower than actual MMR matching would. (Fair disclaimer, I did one of the models.) Yes, I can probably play til a point where it might correct itself, but depending on what model you use, you are looking at 50-300 games just to get to the point where it’s matching correctly. That might be ok to me if it was long term, but I have to do that in an 8 week season?

And my perspective would probably shift a lot since I’d be unemployed. The times I have to play are set by real life, and a working system would not penalize for that.

Could you link your model that you speak of? I’m genuinely interested.

Also, that cracked me up a bit. Fair point.

Mine doesn’t do graphical output yet, but here’s ensigns. I disagree with his assumption that there exist matches where your opponent has a 90% chance to win that you can win 10% of the time, but it’s the most favorable to the devs of the models.
In it you can see the error range on player skill vs MMR and the error range on player skill vs player rank(num pips) is larger than what I would consider to be a fair system.

https://dviw3bl0enbyw.cloudfront.net/uploads/forum_attachment/file/221876/ratingrankot.png

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

As far as I’m concerned, people have an overblown opinion of how good they are and they are also convinced that they should get to legendary as long as they keep queuing ranked. I don’t think that everyone should get legendary, and I think that what people consider “MMR hell” is actually the right bracket for them if they can’t get out of it. The fact that exceptional players can get to legendary without many problems on an alt account, which would have no MMR to “help” them, convinces me even more of this.

Or the problem that alt accounts have an easier time progressing than accounts that have a low mmr from a previous season……

No one is saying that legendary players can’t make legendary, MMR hell is mid tier ruby players being stuck at ruby t0 with teammates that threecap home, rush enemy lord etc…

I’m saying I can win with teammates like those.

Grats, you’re probably better than a mid tier ruby….

Right. So the point is that those who cannot do the same should be exactly in the spot they are. Not because they have “bad teammates” who hold them back. But because their own play does not merit reaching a higher division.

No the point is, that they should be able to reach a point where they are the ones that make mistakes that matter some of the time and play well and it matters some of the time, not be at the point where their teammates make those mistakes. I’m not saying they should make diamond for kittens sake. I’m just saying the system shouldn’t be locking players that rush enemy lord or triple cap home with players who know that’s a bad idea. That’s all…..

That may be your point, but it certainly is not mine. I’m sort of trying to decipher your first sentence. Anyway, I would have to disagree. Mainly because this matchmaking seems to want to put you on the same team as players in the same division/MMR as you. While MMR is not necessarily an indicator of skill, it at least will actually tend to put similarly skilled players together. So while you might know that triple capping home is generally a bad idea, you might still be at a similar skill level to those players. I mean, knowing where to go at all times is important but there are plenty of other things you could still be bad enough at which would put you on their level

Except that it doesn’t put players together based on skill, it’s very sensitive to loss/win streaks and with the safe pip checkpoints it prevents the system from evening out. The system lets MMR spiral low or high by the way it works and it’s hard to recover. There is no where for players to drop to at t0 ruby, even if I win 30% of my matches and they win 15% of their matches they still are in the same matchmaking pool. (FAir note, I play at offpeak hours so it stretches the range even more)

Is there proof of what you are saying? Like has a dev said that it is sensitive to loss/win streaks? Or is this a conclusion you have come to from observing matchmaking as a player?

Also, as you say you play at a offpeak hours. I am curious how your perspective might shift if you played continually at peak hours

All three people that modeled it showed that it had problems when your MMR dropped from your skill and that the system pushed it lower than actual MMR matching would. (Fair disclaimer, I did one of the models.) Yes, I can probably play til a point where it might correct itself, but depending on what model you use, you are looking at 50-300 games just to get to the point where it’s matching correctly. That might be ok to me if it was long term, but I have to do that in an 8 week season?

And my perspective would probably shift a lot since I’d be unemployed. The times I have to play are set by real life, and a working system would not penalize for that.

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

As far as I’m concerned, people have an overblown opinion of how good they are and they are also convinced that they should get to legendary as long as they keep queuing ranked. I don’t think that everyone should get legendary, and I think that what people consider “MMR hell” is actually the right bracket for them if they can’t get out of it. The fact that exceptional players can get to legendary without many problems on an alt account, which would have no MMR to “help” them, convinces me even more of this.

Or the problem that alt accounts have an easier time progressing than accounts that have a low mmr from a previous season……

No one is saying that legendary players can’t make legendary, MMR hell is mid tier ruby players being stuck at ruby t0 with teammates that threecap home, rush enemy lord etc…

I’m saying I can win with teammates like those.

Grats, you’re probably better than a mid tier ruby….

Right. So the point is that those who cannot do the same should be exactly in the spot they are. Not because they have “bad teammates” who hold them back. But because their own play does not merit reaching a higher division.

No the point is, that they should be able to reach a point where they are the ones that make mistakes that matter some of the time and play well and it matters some of the time, not be at the point where their teammates make those mistakes. I’m not saying they should make diamond for kittens sake. I’m just saying the system shouldn’t be locking players that rush enemy lord or triple cap home with players who know that’s a bad idea. That’s all…..

That may be your point, but it certainly is not mine. I’m sort of trying to decipher your first sentence. Anyway, I would have to disagree. Mainly because this matchmaking seems to want to put you on the same team as players in the same division/MMR as you. While MMR is not necessarily an indicator of skill, it at least will actually tend to put similarly skilled players together. So while you might know that triple capping home is generally a bad idea, you might still be at a similar skill level to those players. I mean, knowing where to go at all times is important but there are plenty of other things you could still be bad enough at which would put you on their level

Except that it doesn’t put players together based on skill, it’s very sensitive to loss/win streaks and with the safe pip checkpoints it prevents the system from evening out. The system lets MMR spiral low or high by the way it works and it’s hard to recover. There is no where for players to drop to at t0 ruby, even if I win 30% of my matches and they win 15% of their matches they still are in the same matchmaking pool. (FAir note, I play at offpeak hours so it stretches the range even more)

brannigan.9831:

Whatever they do you can count on one thing there will be plenty of complaining in season 3. Just like seasons 1 and 2. Everyone thinks they are a diamond or better player. I dont care what system they come up with you are always going to be limited by what is in the queue at a given time. If they go back to some kind of MMR averaging where players like me that have thousands of matches get matched with complete noobs all the time again I know I wont be staying around thats for sure.

I swear, I might as well make this a cut and paste:
I’m not diamond quality I don’t deserve diamond. I do know that the following are mistakes:
Rushing enemy lord at 0 points. Running 2+ thieves and no eles or druid. Trying to take far 1v1 from a healing ele. Splitting 1home 2 beast 1mid 1 who goes to the middle of the map and demands 1v1s. Playing a build you just made up for the first time on a class you’ve never played and doing it in ranked. Afking after losing a skirmish. Suiciding 1v3 or 1v4. Running far after you’ve died to the same plaer 1v1 there 3 times.

All I want is to get to a point where my team doesn’t do these things. That’s all, that’s all most people complaining want.

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

As far as I’m concerned, people have an overblown opinion of how good they are and they are also convinced that they should get to legendary as long as they keep queuing ranked. I don’t think that everyone should get legendary, and I think that what people consider “MMR hell” is actually the right bracket for them if they can’t get out of it. The fact that exceptional players can get to legendary without many problems on an alt account, which would have no MMR to “help” them, convinces me even more of this.

Or the problem that alt accounts have an easier time progressing than accounts that have a low mmr from a previous season……

No one is saying that legendary players can’t make legendary, MMR hell is mid tier ruby players being stuck at ruby t0 with teammates that threecap home, rush enemy lord etc…

I’m saying I can win with teammates like those.

Grats, you’re probably better than a mid tier ruby….

Right. So the point is that those who cannot do the same should be exactly in the spot they are. Not because they have “bad teammates” who hold them back. But because their own play does not merit reaching a higher division.

No the point is, that they should be able to reach a point where they are the ones that make mistakes that matter some of the time and play well and it matters some of the time, not be at the point where their teammates make those mistakes. I’m not saying they should make diamond for kittens sake. I’m just saying the system shouldn’t be locking players that rush enemy lord or triple cap home with players who know that’s a bad idea. That’s all…..

Hubris.7436:

Tenebria.7239:

Hubris.7436:

As far as I’m concerned, people have an overblown opinion of how good they are and they are also convinced that they should get to legendary as long as they keep queuing ranked. I don’t think that everyone should get legendary, and I think that what people consider “MMR hell” is actually the right bracket for them if they can’t get out of it. The fact that exceptional players can get to legendary without many problems on an alt account, which would have no MMR to “help” them, convinces me even more of this.

Or the problem that alt accounts have an easier time progressing than accounts that have a low mmr from a previous season……

No one is saying that legendary players can’t make legendary, MMR hell is mid tier ruby players being stuck at ruby t0 with teammates that threecap home, rush enemy lord etc…

I’m saying I can win with teammates like those.

Grats, you’re probably better than a mid tier ruby….

Hubris.7436:

As far as I’m concerned, people have an overblown opinion of how good they are and they are also convinced that they should get to legendary as long as they keep queuing ranked. I don’t think that everyone should get legendary, and I think that what people consider “MMR hell” is actually the right bracket for them if they can’t get out of it. The fact that exceptional players can get to legendary without many problems on an alt account, which would have no MMR to “help” them, convinces me even more of this.

Or the problem that alt accounts have an easier time progressing than accounts that have a low mmr from a previous season……

No one is saying that legendary players can’t make legendary, MMR hell is mid tier ruby players being stuck at ruby t0 with teammates that threecap home, rush enemy lord etc…

Wow, I did declare ensign as a winner and buy him shinies
But seriously,ok, his model disagrees with my model which both disagree with the other model.

So what, pick the model that best supports your case and that’s probably ensign’s model and that one still shows players of the same skill level spread across three kittening gem tiers as well as having to play a large number of games in order to correct a rating mismatch. I didn’t account for some of the assumptions he made and I said I’d pay so I did.

And to politely express my opinion on some of the anecdotal evidence…
If you have to play more than 15 hours (60 matches) a week to reach the appropriate spot in the league grats, but I don’t think that’s a working system.

If the margin of error includes multiple gem tiers, I don’t think that’s a working system…..

If the system can’t handle a non even distribution of play times…. I don’t think that’s a working system…

If it takes someone 600+ games to reach legendary….I don’t think that’s a working system..

Oh, and Evan, a polite request: Since this problem actually affects the accuracy of MMR in the system, please consider a soft reset or increasing the volatility numbers for everyone once you change the system.

Man, wish you had chipped in when Ensign and I were comparing simulations yesterday. We had another math thread going, might be worth a look for you.

On a side note that helps to explain the differences between our two results since we had different methods of determining who would play against who.

TPMN.1483:

Hey All,
It took me 624 matches to reach legendary – cause I’m no pro – but I’ve learnt a lot and had some very long win streaks – especially in diamond (once I started to use the build I pinged above).

So feel free to correct me If I’m wrong…. 624 Matches…at the rate of about 4 an hour that’s 156 hours of pvp in about four weeks. So basically was a full time job to make it to legendary from low MMR. Not a criticism of you, but more of the system, cause that seems a little excessive to me….

In theory it doesn’t really matter. An elo reset doesn’t change the eventual result and slows down the sorting of players. It’s the matchmaking system that’s the issue, once everyone has played 200-250 games if you don’t get stuck in an elo spiral iit’ll even out.

look at the models: the system will not even out until players have played an average of 200 games each….. If they are just doing the daily then well, thats over the length allowed for the season.

Isn’t GS ranger meta or a least close to?

Razor.9872:

Mogar.9216:

Razor.9872:

So, clearly we have an issue with matchmaking. Clearly people want the issue resolved.

What is not clear is how that is to be done? Just saying “remove MMR” doesn’t cut it, because there needs to be something to fill that shoe — otherwise matchmaking would be pure chaos.

So, my question is:

How do you propose A-net should build their matchmaking system?

uhmm isn’t the div system a replacement? .. you win you move up , you lose you don’t. pretty simple.

Wouldn’t that be akin to a delayed reward track? Considering it is not degradable.

Make teams and matches both solely on tier and pips….

Either way, Ensign let me know what kind of shinies you like. You did meet the criteria of the challenge. I might not agree with all the assumptions you made but I said I’d pay out for someone to find them and I will. Otherwise you’ll get random shinies.

Just an update: testing has shown that in certain cases the live system will pull players from lower divisions into the match to make a team so having a low% mmr for your tier area may not prevent the system from finding worse players to compensate for the better players on your team.

Really they shouldn’t, streaks are just setting you up for a streak in the other direction as your pips rise faster than your MMR does unless you entered the season with an MMR far from the average.

Chill, it’s neither…….MMR isn’t accurate outside of the average tier as it’s being skewed to the extremes. But if you like the results of one simulation, you just have to play quite a few games til it corrects itself. If you go with the other results you have to play more than quite a few games, but either way improving your skill will take you out of it, it’ll just be a slow process.

Ensign.2189:

Tenebria.7239:

The hypothetical 5%/50% misranked player might have to play upwards of 50ish matches to correct himself? And then play to raise pips?

The hypothetical 5% / 50% misrated player that you mentioned is actually at the correct rank – he is supposed to be in low ruby, and is, he’s just there with an abnormally low MMR for his rank. That player will have to play ~50 games or so to correct his MMR, at which point he’ll be at the right rank and rating. He’ll move upward along with the rising tide of players as MMR spreads out more amongst the ranks – slowly while he is underrated, more in line with how everyone else is moving once he’s corrected his MMR.

This following is just opinion but based on these simulations: A lower skilled player is more likely to make mistakes that frustrate the higher skilled player so a lot of these games are just going to be incredibly frustrating to play.

On the other note, I think I figure out why we differ, I think you’re using the percentage chance win from ELO/GLICKO (which is partially based on never having complete information) and I was using the method that we already know the true skill score since it’s a simulation and the average true skill should determine the win. I don’t know what’s more accurate? Maybe a combination of the two? But it seems to me that would account for the rest of difference in the direction of a players MMR trend.

Grats, I think you win! (Or you played and have good data, if I got the following mostly correct, you will) What kinda shinies do you like?

Also just to clarify and make sure I have it right:

The hypothetical 5%/50% misranked player might have to play upwards of 50ish matches to correct himself? And then play to raise pips?

After 200ish games when the season has reached the distribution you posted, the distribution of skill across ranks is a somewhat normal distribution across a 50 pip spread? So an average skilled player will be between t4 Sapphire and t3 Diamond.

If more games are played the entire distribution will shift up but still retain that rough amount of pip accuracy?

Also unrelated, but interesting nonetheless, would it be more advantageous for a player to just take some days off of ranked and let the rating decay back to normal?

Edit, if i got something wrong tell me, I don’t want to be putting words in your mouth.

Oh and ensign, since yours outputs to pictures prettily, any chance of that point distribution showing system MMR vs Skill at some of the game number breakpoints?

Ok, so two differing assumptions then:
I assumed the maker chose teammates from a range around you with the goal of arriving at lowest possible error from the average to the rating of the first player it had assigned to that bracket area team.
Your assumption is that it shuffles through all the players in queue until it finds 5 in a range and groups them into a team?

Edit: and yes I was feeding it players with sub 10% win rates at some points in order to see what happened.

@Ensign.2189 that may be where I went differently. I was trying to assign players playtimes and queuing them in random order during the assigned playtimes in minute intervals with games assumed to last 15minutes. Probably too much of a mess.

But do I understand correctly then that the 50% player can wind up with the 5%mmr at some locations within the error bounds so he has roughly only a 1/10 or so (can’t do the actual calc right now) win chance using team mmr as the predictor?

Also how does skewing the win and loss chances affect your sim? Since elo might say that you have a 5% chance to win but is that 5% accurate when you approach the edges?

Ensign.2189:

Tenebria.7239:

And for the MMR hell discussion… I posit and show why I think it is true that a player with skill 50% but MMR 5% will still lose MORE than 75%-80% of his matches and the minimum MMR penalty for that substantial of a loss rate will outweigh any MMR gained.

Why do you think there’s a minimum MMR gain or loss from a match? Glicko uses logistic curves over the entire range, it never hits a cap – if the best player beats the worst player, the rating changes will be a small fraction of one point.

For two reasons, one because in the config it’s declared as 1300 not 1300.0 which would generally be used for a float so I figured it was stored as an integer.

Two, there is a maximum expected MMR to be in 15 pips range of a t0 ruby player and the loss from that match would be the minimum loss that could be expected. Or alternatively since MMR is capped, you could figure a loss to a max mmr player as the minimum.

After it’s done that, the imbalanced matchmaker actually sets up a lot of opportunities for upsets within each division – if you’re underrated given your MMR and division, it’ll feed you a steady diet of matches that it expects you to lose, and pairs you with teammates that are probably higher rated than you, statistically, so the carry effect is that much stronger.

Why would it pair you with higher rated teammates? As I understood it, it paired you with teammates it thought were your skill level.

@ensign, I’ll definitely poke at the model more when I get home. Looking at your model’s results though is there any way to plug into your system a player who is at the 5% mark for ruby t0 but is skilled at 50% ruby t0 and then track to see how long it takes to correct? (That is add them once the seasons distribution has even’d out with a reasonably high confidence)

When I did my initial runs (i think it was 3 or 4 games an hour, play time of 3-4 hours a day, 4-5 days a week) (at work so I can’t check) some of them would never correct in the season.

Do you feel those are reasonable assumptions or do you prefer I compare with something that plays a far higher amount of games?

And yay, thanks for being someone to take this discussion seriously!

Update the OP with a challenge 3: That hopefully will help the people who like to approach things like this from the simulation side:

Challenge 3 (Win Both Shinies and a bonus Shiny): Create a simulation (sim1) using the available information for this season, create a simulation (sim2) using purely GLICKO for matchmaking. Run both. Find that sim1 produces MMR for players with at most twice the error generated by sim2. Feel free to use any statistically valid method for calculating error

And guys, please lay off the picking on each other, there’s no point.

And for the MMR hell discussion… I posit and show why I think it is true that a player with skill 50% but MMR 5% will still lose MORE than 75%-80% of his matches and the minimum MMR penalty for that substantial of a loss rate will outweigh any MMR gained.

There are many points where I think the system breaks down, I just picked a few that I thought were easiest to handle.

And guys, please lay off the picking on each other, it contributes nothing to the discussion.

Also I’m not terribly affected by this, it’s easy to exploit, I have all the achievements but one for the backpack and I prefer playing in unranked even with the terrible maps because I get closer games which I find more fun so lay off with that line please

Sorry about that, had two thoughts in my head, and you are probably right that this doesn’t apply to a lot of the people who think they might be in mmr hell. I also probably should have mentioned in the OP the same thing can occur for average players (especially new to pvp accounts) on win streaks pushing them higher than they should be and trapping them past a save point that they can’t compete at.

And most of this damage was probably self inflicted for people at this point. I’m really trying to avoid making it about player decisions and just about the system not handling edge cases correctly is all.

Chaith.8256:

So you agree with me that backwards PIP loss being stopped while losing dozens of games, thus tanking MMR is the only way, if at all, to increase difficulty past what you can reasonably carry.

This is a temporary rut, MMR hell is not forever. If you match vs. far superiorly rated enemies, you lose little, and gain lots on a win. That’s how Glicko/MMR games work. Due to this Eventually you’ll crawl out, and get where you belong, after fluking a win based on good rolls on the other factors I mentioned before.

The only way you’ll not get where you deserve is if you give up there.

Mostly true, there are other ways to get there, tanked mmr in sapphire/emerald since you only need a 3 win streak to hit the next save point. Or doing profession achieves and losing games the system expects you to win causing faster mmr drop than pip loss. And when you remove division save points you’d have to remove all save points or it would just become T5 or 6 sapphire hell.

And every other glicko/mmr based game I know of gives you a roughly balanced match to allow your MMR to correct itself. In this system you might be relying on a low probability event and have to play an inhuman number of games to have that event occur consistently enough for the system to correct itself. (As far as I can tell)

Celeras.4980:

Give me an account that is in “MMR hell”, and I will be happy to stream how the games go and prove it is a result of your own lack of skill.

Other than that, there is no “mathematical” argument anybody can make since we cant prove our own MMR.

Of course higher skill takes you out of it. I just feel like you’re missing the point. You shouldn’t need that higher skill if the system was accurate and fair.

And you don’t need to know your mmr. You know the rules of the system. So it’s easy to simulate. There are some parameters you don’t know, but I don’t think you can find any value for those parameters where your simulation doesn’t fail to be accurate. If you can-Grats-You’ll win the challenge.

Chaith.8256:

When you make Ruby, you don’t have bottom MMR. You have to get a positive win rate in any division in order to progress. The more you lose, you’re falling into a lower and easier PIP range, in reality people are trading wins and not tanking MMR. There’s only a problem when your backwards PIP progression is stopped, and you manage to not be able to carry for so many games that your MMR gets tanked, and the disadvantage becomes greater for that unchanging PIP range.

A simple fix ArenaNet could implement would be no MMR drops when you’re zero Pips in a tier or division (still lose MMR for losses in Amber)

Not disagreeing with you at all. Indeed if the rules are changed to allow division drops, the system will eventually correct itself. There are many small changes that would allow this.

I should also add the disclaimer here: many people who feel they are in MMR Hell may or may not be

My point was that it is a possibility in the current system, and since many people insisted that it was not and the system was fair and consistent (i.e. ALL players wind up where they deserve based solely on skill)

So I’m willing to pay someone a prize for proving that a player will always wind up where skill determines. (The two challenge cases are just simple examples where it was easiest for me to locate a potential system failure.)

I would really prefer if people didn’t actually talk about common mistakes or how to play better etc in this thread. That isn’t really the point, it’s not a whine about how I’m misranked or about the backpack or whatever. It’s about whether the system is sound and consistent and produces the appropriate output from the input it is given

@Chaith

I wasn’t saying anything about how a player got there or about their playing ability.
IMO, a fair matchmaking system would take a player at 5%/75% to 75%/75% in a reasonable amount of time. Also in that system this would be an extreme abberation.

I’m not saying people can’t play out of it by being even better than they are now, I’m just saying it produces inaccurate results. I.E. two players with the same skill will not have comparable MMR in this system because it encourages those on the outlying areas to remain there.

The question is: Is this system accurate? Prove that when presented with an edge case it correctly compensates, because to me it looks like it fails those cases.

That’s the point. And you have to assume that it’s accurate for everyone else or if you don’t then your proof would fail because it relies on the system failing for player two in order to work for player one.

choovanski.5462:

so considering MMR is hidden from the player, isn’t this impossible to actually test?

Sure, it’s impossible to test. But not impossible to simulate or theorycraft since we know the general formula’s.

NeXeD.3042:

what facts have been provided?

the burden of truth should be on those that make the claims, people can post screenshots of game scores but they probably dont tell the whole story.

as much as alot of you want to believe the people winning are deluded into defending a flawed system one could argue the same for the other group, but what group is more likely to go to the forums to voice their disapproval?

people on these forums dont understand those complaining are most likely the vocal minority.

I did post facts, and then what I believe the results of those facts are. The idea is if someone has better facts or more accurate results than what I had that disprove mine: I PAY THEM.

No insulting people necessary for either side of this discussion.

Lexander.4579:

i think you can just trust Anet and take their word that the system is based for skill and unworthy players wont be able to grind anymore unless they abuse MMR in some way (like many did in s1)

Or…..I could look at it and as far as I can tell it’s flawed…..and then I could ask people if they agreed with the analysis…..and then I could challenge people to offer proof that it’s not flawed….then I could offer to basically pay for proof it’s not broken…..

OK, here was my original rough analysis of the flaws in the MMR system:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/pvp/A-serious-examination-of-S2-MMR-Math-Inside

But since a majority of the forum base thinks I’m wrong, and swears there is no MMR hell………I offer you a challenge:

Prove me wrong and I’ll buy you SHINIES! (Some random stuff from the gem store)(NA Server)
If a dev wants to play, I’ll chip in cash to a charity of their choosing.

Challenge 1 (Small Shiny): Prove a player with system MMR in the bottom 5% but actual skill of 75% for his matchmaking area can obtain a system MMR that reflects his skill. Assume he’s at 0 pips in Ruby.

Challenge 2 (Big Shiny): Prove a player with system MMR in the bottom 5% but actual skill of 50% for his matchmaking area can obtain a system MMR that reflects his skill. Assume he’s at 0 pips in Ruby.

Challenge 3 (Win Both Shinies and a bonus Shiny): Create a simulation (sim1) using the available information for this season, create a simulation (sim2) using purely GLICKO for matchmaking. Run both. Find that sim1 produces MMR for players with at most twice the error generated by sim2. Feel free to use any statistically valid method for calculating error

Best to assume a normal distribution of players, but I’ll probably pay out for a uniform distribution solution.

Requirements:
Math and example cases, no anecdotal evidence.
You must assume MMR is an accurate predictor of game win loss.
You must assume all players other than the player trapped in hell have accurate MMR. You must use the current S2 matchmaking sytem.
Other than that, no solutions that rely on a small percentage chance event to occur or require an inhumanly possible number of games.
No solutions that require everyone (or most or a lot or etc) above that player to rank out of that area.
No solutions relying on disconnections or team play.
No solutions requiring the player to sit out playing a portion of the season.

You’re proving that this players skill will get him where he belongs.

You have 24 hours…..enjoy…..

-Tene

Edit:To clarify this is for a SOLO QUEUE PLAYER
Edit2: First solution to each challenge, I’m not loaded
Edit3: Challenge 3 Posted to make it easier to see

Basically yes, if you have a low mmr from a losing streak etc, a new amber account will have average mmr, it will be higher than yours, you will get better teammates…….

OR maybe, people did the math and win streaks or loss streaks can skew your mmr to lock you into a place you don’t belong……

Not to be that guy, but have any of you actually looked at the math of what happens with this system? It will lock you into losing streaks, you will not be able to play out of them…..