Guild Wars 2

Preferably you use a bundle of goods all tied together, that haven’t been modified by design and found equilibrium pricing quickly.

CrakittenestAuto.9108:

Okay, this is not an argument. I am not an economist and I’m new to MMOs, so I have no idea what the plans are. I’m actually curious, and I thought people might have some ideas about this. So, two questions:

1) Will there be a levelling off period with gold to gems eventually, or will it go up indefinitely? Put into the term I am thinking of, will we reach a stage where T3 armour will cost something like a few dollars? Will we also reach a stage where grinding for gold is completely impractical, due to the conversion rate? Relatedly, is this a problem?

2) Given inflation is what it is, what is going to happen to current gold sinks? When orichalcum axes and T3 armour are trivial to buy with gold, what happens? Do the prices get raised at some point, or can we expect new tiers to be added to materials and armour sets as time goes on?

As I say, I’m not an economist, but there was a thread in general discussion about the price of T3 and how expensive it was. It just seemed that there were many reasons for it to be expensive, but they were all going to be irrelevant in a few months.

1. The best way to think about prices in senses like this over time is in terms we economists call Real. There is an exchange value between gems and Real value of gold. The real value essentially means some base purchasing power of gold, irrelevant of how much gold it actually requires. We might say 1 Real gold is what it takes to buy a stack of copper ore, then we look over time and see, how much has that changed, and adjust how we look at it relative to the change.
Now the exchange will have an exchange rate relative to the demand for gems and real gold. This can change forever without too much trouble.

2. As the game changes and ages and gets better gold sinks and other mechanisms are created to adapt to current values. The best sinks though adapt naturally to changing prices. The TP is a good example of this, since it takes a % of trades, it remains a great gold sink irrelevant of inflation.

Disclaimer that these are highly simplified answers, the questions can be made much more complex, but for this medium this is best.

I see no current issues with the exchange, it’s functioning very well. Remember for every opinion on which way should be “favored” there is at least one opinion for the opposite.

PS please stop calling everything inflation, it’s driving me mad.

cargan.5689:

John Smith.4610:

Economists neither sleep nor leave, I was never gone, I just require interesting posts

This explains so much, all this time in Orr we thought they were zombies.

“More come”

Arrg nooooo its the Economists

gaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnssssssssssssss

The reason is due to the type of item that dye is, and how people interact with it. Not the different quantities of dye.

Time Price Quantity
4/14/2013 389g 1
4/14/2013 250g 1
4/15/2013 130g 1
4/15/2013 220g 1
4/15/2013 185g 1
4/15/2013 225g 1
4/15/2013 225g 1
4/16/2013 200g 1
4/16/2013 300g 1
4/16/2013 195g 1
4/17/2013 224g 1

I think how efficient/effective the TP is and the design for end game rewards design, despite being inherently linked, are two separate topics. If we want to talk about end game reward design we should start a new thread.

Cod Eye.1632:

John Smith.4610:

GW2 TP is awesome. Not only is it good for our game, it’s good for the industry.

Like to emphasize how the TP is good for the industry? blow your own trumpet by all means but don’t make silly immature statements.

It’s good for the industry because it demonstrates proof of concept. Not only for massively global trading systems, but for increased efficiency as the virtual economy scales.

I have no intention of recommending names be put on the TP. The arguments about names stopping manipulation lacks merit. I have no intention of speaking ill of WoW it was a great game, so let’s end it at that.

GW2 TP is awesome. Not only is it good for our game, it’s good for the industry.

Gasoline.2570:

Let’s see what the average will be

Statistically inaccurate

Surveying forums leads to massive biases including Sample Bias and Response Bias. In this case there are at least 3 other biases not being accounted for off the top of my head.

A durable good is a good that isn’t destroyed on use, Weapon Skins are closer to luxury goods I believe.

I tried it with larger time periods, but the quantities at each price point needed to be accounted for in a moving subtraction, it would take more time than I currently have.

As a quick aside I ran the numbers by day on the maximum and minimum prices ectos sold are per day for the first two weeks or so of the month. Remember that this is the theoretical MAXIMUM profit percentage one could make at the tipping points, not including the tiny quantities as the maximum prices and a million other things:
Day MaxGain
1 13.03%
2 11.95%
3 13.87%
4 9.30%
5 10.98%
6 10.00%
7 11.21%
8 10.51%
9 11.28%
10 10.24%
11 6.94%
12 9.09%
13 9.87%
14 11.22%

You’ll notice that it never break 15%

Let’s calm down a bit, this isn’t getting us far. Instead let me ask this.
Here are the assumptions that I’m operating under for this question:
1. You feel that PvE and TP have difference levels of gold earning
2. You feel that PvE and TP should have the same level of gold earning

What would be your plan for implementing a reward system that would achieve what you desire, given the constraint that you may not get rid of the trading post?

See (not a grey market)

Olba.5376:

It’s a town cloth item.

When considering changing the fees (it’s not a tax) there are side effects that we must think about. For example, if we shift how the fees function between instant sell and sell later how does that effect the demand for buy orders? Small, seemingly innocuous changes like this can have a profound impact on how players interact with the market and change the nature of what’s happening on the trading post. In a live game you need a really good reason to make changes like this, and a lot of work making sure you know EXACTLY what’s going to happen when you do.

24 hours, >150,000 ectos, > 9500 unique sellers.

Xynn.2748:

Ok check this out, I’m dedicating this to a guildie of mine:

If ANet implemented my idea (it sounds like there are good reasons not to, but if they did), you could check a box to enable “drunk mode” where it would disable the link between TP and bank.

Cognitive dissonance (or some version of it) would make that feature not work.

What’s the difference between this system and just selling your items on the TP then buying them back later?

If you study economics you should have no trouble sitting down and thinking about the problem and coming up with an answer.

Just because the economy is virtual, doesn’t mean it isn’t subject to market failures or other economic constraints. In the case of the answer to this question, virtual economies are much MORE subject to this pressure than regular economies.

Storing money in the bank is set for a specific purpose, it’s supposed to be stored money for transferring or saving. I would make the argument that if we were to change that, we should just make all gold account shared all the time.

DarkSpirit.7046:

Pandemoniac.4739:

Plenty of folks have been wildly successful with ideas many told them wouldn’t work. Plenty have gotten a big bite of “I told you so” too. It’s hard to predict with certainty how things will turn out when you’ve got a strong opinion about it. What’s the harm in trying?

Plus the important fact that since I have successfully brokered before, it reinforced this notion in my mind that it can work. I am not being stubborn for no reason. People who have done it successfully before, would naturally be more optimistic that it can work than the people who have not done it before.

If you can find a trustworthy broker who is trusted by both the seller and buyer, most of that work is already done.

Grey markets are not created in vacuum. Even if you, yourself become a trusted broker, creating that market creates opportunities for players to take advantage of each other. We know that goldsellers will lie, cheat and steal to get money, this market will be no different.

Prioritizing a bug fix that doesn’t actually affect the TP usage at all over any fix in the game that does affect players would be irresponsible.

Gold sellers and scammers would bury any of these systems. Do not underestimate them. Also the TP is awesome, just use it.

This message has been brought to you by unbiased parties.

Geikamir.6329:

John Smith.4610:

Akaji.1296:

John Smith.4610:

My job isn’t necessarily to prevent swings, it’s to know what they will be ahead of time, and make sure the swings will be predictable and understandable.

Are there multiple people in charge of that, or that dedicate a significant amount of their work effort towards it? It seems like a lot to handle for a single individual (and IIRC you have many other responsibilities as well) given the market size and the relative difficulty of predicting human (i.e. usually irrational/sub-optimal, but sometimes brilliant) behavior.

I work with several designers whom I would consider experts in mmo economies, so we can sit and chat and make sure we’re all on the same page.

Was there anything (that you will tell us about) that was a really big swing that was unexpected (whether totally or was larger than anticipated)?

Not really (excluding exploits), there have been circumstances when swings were less than I had expected or designed for. A lot has happened though so I may be forgetting some circumstances.

Akaji.1296:

John Smith.4610:

My job isn’t necessarily to prevent swings, it’s to know what they will be ahead of time, and make sure the swings will be predictable and understandable.

Are there multiple people in charge of that, or that dedicate a significant amount of their work effort towards it? It seems like a lot to handle for a single individual (and IIRC you have many other responsibilities as well) given the market size and the relative difficulty of predicting human (i.e. usually irrational/sub-optimal, but sometimes brilliant) behavior.

I work with several designers whom I would consider experts in mmo economies, so we can sit and chat and make sure we’re all on the same page.

Ensign.2189:

Agree 100% that EMH markets only exist in the models of economic theorists. There are always frictions.

The big difference between the NYSE and the GW2 market is the presence of algorithmic trading in large amounts. The NYSE has a ton of scripts pulling the autocorrelations out of the market and reacting to shocks; GW2, not so much. On the flip side, the GW2 market is a lot more transparent.

Point about patches shaking things up is well taken, though it isn’t that different from unexpected earnings reports or fraud revelations or the like mathematically; and isn’t a big part of your job keeping the market from swinging around too much with each patch?

My job isn’t necessarily to prevent swings, it’s to know what they will be ahead of time, and make sure the swings will be predictable and understandable.

Ensign.2189:

Ursan.7846:

I won’t say “not efficient.” I think the better term is “not perfectly efficient.”

I’m using the term ‘efficient’ in strict accordance with the efficient market hypothesis – and under that definition, the GW2 market is not even weakly efficient.

We could say that one market is more or less efficient than another, but without a basis for comparison we really can’t say anything beyond ‘the market is inefficient’. This, granted, isn’t saying much of anything, since no markets that I know of are efficient (except the ones in simplified micro models!)

It certainly isn’t anywhere near getting involved in the (quite interesting) paradoxical perfectly inefficient market discussion.

It’s late so forgive me if I make any mistakes.
That is a very interesting argument. Here are my counter-points (abbreviating to EMH):
1. This is a big one, there are no efficient markets with EMH, the EMH doesn’t really hold up in reality. Ever seen the revenue a good high frequency trader makes, even in the most highly traded markets?
2. This virtual economy doesn’t work inside the same time frames as a standard financial market. It’s much more sensitive to forces like time and day than a standard market, it never closes and there are major shifts in population relative to those factors.
3. Game content changes extremely often (patches and such)

I actually have several more, but I don’t want this to be too lengthy.

One is information on the game, one is telling you the mechanics of the game, they are two completely different things.

Nike.2631:

Answering the crazies but not the real questions again .

Simple question mode: does the vendor coin value of a rare affect the ectoplasms-outcome of salvaging it?

Pleeeeeeeease?

Sorry, you aren’t getting salvaging secrets out of me.

Before we jump too hard, lets just ask:
Endrance, you clearly have a strong opinion on the matter. What evidence are you looking for? What data would you believe?
Given a reasonable request I’ll see what I can do for you.

John Smith.4610:

Lets start this train early with this patch. We did not nerf ecto rates of any kind, we’ve never nerfed ecto rates, if we change ecto rates, it will be in the patch notes I promise you.

Vol.5241:

John, how do you feel about the recent protest against Zomorros?

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/19ov2s/mystic_forge_protest_on_anvil_rock/

I don’t wan to answer a “feel” question, could you phrase a question differently to be more precise on what you’re asking?

merkator.9206:

Hey John, can you tell me the current ecto rates when salvaging rares, depending on the salvage kit used?

I could, I won’t.

Cymatoperior.5942:

I dont know but im sure there will be people who post higher buy orders. But what I meant is that if it were that massive the buying and selling would fluctuate faster for my orders to be filled. I did post the highest buy price before logging off.

I think you should stop and think about this a little bit, and then come back with another response.

Cymatoperior.5942:

Geikamir.6329:

Cymatoperior.5942:

I passed by Maw yesterday while doing my dailies. Wasnt in time for the event but I saw one player linking a single rare and the rest saying he is lucky. ..

Exotic you mean. Rares are 100% or extremely close to it.

Nope I meant rare.

1. I’m pretty sure the maw has a virtually 100% rare drop for participating.
2. When I said those assumptions aren’t necessarily true, I meant they aren’t true. Over 10,000 unique sellers of ectos in the last 24 hours alone. What you are seeing is a supply shift, not an push up the supply curve.

Cymatoperior.5942:

The number of rares sold before patch was hovering at 12k total. Now it has increased to 35k. There is no way people could farm so much and so fast within the short period of time so the increase can only mean one thing; investors are dumping their stock.

You shouldn’t make assumptions like this, they aren’t necessarily true. Many times I’ve expressed how massive this market is, and that the orders don’t represent supply or velocity.

I think you’re overvaluing what was created by bots during that time period. GW2 is massive (by definition I suppose, but also in reality) what those bots made for a couple of weeks isn’t 1/1000th of the total turn of this economy since launch.

John Smith.4610:

As a quick aside. Gems in the currency exchange are finite. You may buy gems with real money to your hearts content, but if you don’t put any of them gems into the currency exchange the currency exchange’s stock of gems never changes.

John Smith.4610:

Think of it this way. The government can print as much money as they want, that doesn’t mean your bank account has access to that money. The currency exchange does not have access to gem creation. It has a limited stock that players add and subtract from.

The price changes pretty often, how would I have time to post on the forums?

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Side note – I do miss the “Post Here to say how awesome John Smith is” thread.

lol, as a side note it wasn’t me who changed the name of that thread to that, I changed it to something dry and economic and the owner changed the name (though I do appreciate the support).

Ensign.2189:

and it’s hard to tell which one Mr. Smith is referring to, since he drops into troll mode when the conversation veers towards private information only he has.

You’re right, that response isn’t necessary. I’ve gotten a bit frustrated sometimes when I spend time to come here and talk to people and get a lot of accusations, but that’s not an excuse for having a short fuse. I apologize and will be more tolerant in the future.

It changes pretty drastically relative to a couple of different factors (like time of day), but it doesn’t take long.

Yes, I can be sure since there are no DR systems that touch salvaging.