Guild Wars 2

Just wondering where this “grab a low MMR” so you can Q faster is going.

What’s this going to end up with?

It WILL stabilize at some equilibrium point, right? Where there is no more way to speed up the Q time.

Could it drop to 2 Diamonds and 3 Ambers?

I worked in corporate America for more than a decade. I have mingled among top management and I see how a corporation works and what drives it.

Look, ArenaNet sells a product to gamers, but I strongly suspect it is no longer driven by people passionate about online gaming. Especially not PvP gaming.

Rather, I imagine the marketing and finance people have taken over the show.

Heart of Thorns has all the signs of being driven by the Marketing Department serving the goals of the Finance Department.

People here are mostly young, and probably not many have actually worked at a corporation at a high level. So they do not realize what they are really dealing with. I note their honest calls for ArenaNet to listen to them, thinking that ArenaNet management is actually worried that the PvP balance is out of whack.

I do not think ArenaNet management is even thinking that much about PvP. GW2 now is, at its heart, a PvE MMO. That is what it is.

You think the ESports push is all that much money to them? It’s a gamble, they gave it a try. Throw something at the wall and see if it sticks.

When it fails, they will totally walk away from PvP. I believe that.

And they won’t see it as some big tragedy.

They live in another world than PvP gamers. I think the PvP gamers in management have all left ArenaNet, for the most part.

Who is left? What power (Read: budget) are they given?

I think the hardcore “PvP grinders” will continue to invite low-MMR friends onto their teams just to get a shorter Q time.

They will ALL do this because it has become the accepted way you do it, “justified” by doing it to gain a reasonable Q time.

This will bring all those low MMR friends up to a higher division than is justified by their skill level. But it will increase the number of players in the higher divisions, shortening Q times. But I can’t predict, personally, how much it will shorten them.

I need 3rd person view because have always gotten sick in FPS games. Just something about my visual system, I guess.
:(

What will the divisions be like after New Years (just to choose a halfway mark)?

What will Q times be like? Who will be in these Qs?

What will Emerald be like? Desolate? Or will it be where “fun” matches take place because it will be full of average people playing just to play, without worrying about progression?

Check if your graphics card is getting too hot. That’s what crashes the game for me.

Ruby.7960:

I’m Ruby and I really wish Anet didn’t name these divisions after gemstones. >:l

: ) That’s funny.

I’m just suspecting that ArenaNet is not anything near the company it was a year ago. People have left and new, perhaps inexperienced people have come in with new agendas.

Ultimately the manegement want to make as much money as they can till the game fizzles out because it is at the end of its life cycle as an MMO. I suspect heart of thorns may likely be the last expansion and is kind of an end stage play at ArenaNet.

I imagine the Queue times are getting longer and longer and longer and longer.

And you cannot win unless there are enough people in the Q at roughly your skill level so you have a fighting chance.

If we could see the how many people are currently in Q, and their MMR and division, it would be an eye opener and would explain a lot.

Well, the solo players are already dropping out of the upper divisions … or never got there. So how are the wait times now in Diamond? Or Ruby?

That’s why I stopped.

Step away from the computer for a minute, take a calm breath, and look at what you have been doing for the past day or two.

Ask yourself: “How does what I have been doing look to a reasonable person?”

:D

paleon.7609:

Oh hey, they found an analytical solution to the number of games (in one of the comments). Again re-running with 51% win rate (and rounded to nearest game):

Amber->Emerald: 29 Games
Emerald->Sapphire: 142 Games, 171 Games Total
Sapphire->Ruby: 142 Games, 313 Games Total
Ruby->Diamond: 656 Games, 969 Games Total
Diamond->Legendary: 843 Games, 1812 Games Total

I would suspect that is the most likely number, bot it will vary on other factors ourside of player skill, and that there will be players of equal skill that could take plus or minus 30% or those totals.

But lets say it’s 1,812 games at 4 games per hour on average, with waiting times.

That’s 453 hours in 8 weeks.

paleon.7609:

There is a pretty extensive solution that was posted to Reddit a few days ago that appears to use correct methodology (though they assumed a 50% win rate). I’ll run their code on my machine in a minute and see what the result is with a 51% win rate.

That sounds interesting.

zxstanyxz.8769:

kuben.9826:

I’m going to become alcoholic becuse of this game

always has been, and always will be the most fun way to pvp

Not for your teammates.

We asked that in 2013. They say it would be misleading to see your MMR because it changes a lot when you have few games and it is stabilizing. It represents the matcher’s best guess about your skill.

Is anyone from the original PvP development team still working at ArenaNet, I wonder?

So it is a Bell Curve with most people of equal skill taking x number of games, but some (of equal skill) taking many more games to do it (unlucky), and some taking a lot less (lucky).

Embolism, thanks. That helps. I was somehow the staff interrupts were a good part of it, but maybe I was thinking of another build.

I enjoy hearing people better at this than I showing how to figure this out and understand the reality of how the leagues are working and what we are up against.

Teutos.8620:

Laserbolt.6731:

How many games will it take to progress through emerald at a 51% win rate (20 pips)?

51% win rate = 51 wins and 49 losses in 100 games = +2 pips per 100 games or +1 pip per 50 games.

To gain 20 pips you need to play (50*20) = 1000 games.

1 game takes about 10 minutes (between 8 and 15, can’t really be accurate here, I would get 12 on average, but let’s just take the more favorable 10 minutes) + 5 minutes queue time = 15 minutes per game / 4 games per hour.

To achieve the 1000 games, you need to play 250 hours.
(If you every day the whole season, you need to play more than 4 hours every day to climb with a 51% win rate through emerald.)

But you need to take streaks of wins and losses into account. That is what really happens, and we can’t ignore that just to make the calculation easier. Because then we’ll get a wrong answer.

Your analysis (which is how I first approached it as well) assumes no uneven streaks. But we know those happen based on who is in the queue during your several hours of gaming. You can win 7 and then lose 6, that’s 13 games right there to get one pip. Or you can lose TWO pips. It is complex.

Fay,

Thank you. I was honestly asking, not daring people to find what I missed.

So, the plot thickens as to how much skill and how much luck is involved in the leagues.

Here are some considerations for Emerald.

Best case: if you win 21 in a row you will get through Emerald in 21 games.

Worst case ( I think, correct me please), if you have long win and lose streaks, it takes SO much longer. You win 19 and then lose 18, it will take you (19*20)+1 games to get through. 381 games.

What have I missed?

Fay.2357:

The question is obviously flawed, but you can make massive and invalid assumptions to answer it if you want.

Assume even distribution (each additional game is 51% chance to win). Assume all games are +/- 1 pip.

In this perfectly assumed world, you will win 1 more game than you lose every 100 games played. On average, it would take you 100 * number of pips games to progress a given distance.

Easy math. Completely worthless analysis, but easy to do.

I don’t mean perfect world. The question is about the actual reality being faced right now.

Fay.2357:

Perhaps you could link this build? There’s no alacrity support build on metabattle that I saw at a glance using scepter.

Sorry, Fay. I was wrong. No scepter in that build. My mistake.

But it’s the metabattle build I am working to master.

Is the sword key to the build? Or is it mostly staff and wells?

They have NEVER showed the MMR.

They claim it would lead to misunderstandings because it can vary over a short time while it is “learning” you, and people would think that is inaccurate.

LastHope.8127:

Cowboy.5982:

Ps: saddened for the spelling mistakes because I am French.

Being French is no excuse to be bad at English, just because your government isnt forcing you to learn English like most EU countries do, doesn’t exclude you from learning English on your own. There is a reason English is used everywhere in the world, it’s super easy to learn!

It is not easy to learn English. Lots of illogical, weird structure in it!

Out of interest, I translated your post to French…does it make sense to you?

“Si vous voulez que Pvp de Guildwars2 fonctionne , donné aux joueurs ce qu’ils veulent , à Soyer plus accordé à ( écoute ) la communauté et non à vos intérêts , afin que les gens doivent vous respecter votre dur travail qui ( OMS) ont pas facile , Pve promenades (fonctionne ) très bien , je ne dis rien au-dessus , je dois même jouer en PvE depuis la sortie ( de presse) de HOT malgrès que je ISU un joueur PvP , je compte sur vous pour faire un bon travail”.

I respect you for trying to say this. I only speak one language, English.

But it is more than spelling that caused communication problems.

Try it in French and we can use Google Translate. Maybe that will be better.

Polismassa.6740:

the answer to all of this is also terribly variable based on exactly when you win the games in emerald and sapphire. For example, what if you have an exactly 50% winrate because every time you go up a tier, you immediately lose 5 games, but lose no pips. You could then proceed to win the next 5 games and have only forward progress but still an exactly 50% winrate. This doesn’t work in ruby obviously, but the issue still remains.

If that were the case (whether through throwing games, or sheer dumb luck), you would progress through emerald (which is 25 pips btw, not 20) in exactly 50 games.

Ultimately you’re asking a question with far too many variables to be accounted for so it’s completely pointless.

The question was, are people correct in saying you WILL progress through these tiers if you win more than you lose?

Are they correct?

Or among people,with the same win RATE, will some get through and others will not?

Will some people of equal skill make legendary and others not make legendary? And if that is the case, is it really about skill?

Ok, math and logic test.

People claim you will get through if you win more than you lose.

Is that correct? Really?

How many games will it take to progress through emerald at a 51% win rate (20 pips)?

Then how many to progress through Ruby, where you can lose tiers?

Explain your work.

Bonus points: how many hours will it take based on an average of a 5-minute Q?

You have to assume that with a win rate as a soloQer of 16%, you will reach Emerald after about 250 games.

Once in emerald, you will always fall back to one pip even after two straight wins.

I am going to use the Metabattle Alacrity Chrono build. It seems like a solid way to start. I can change things to my personal play strengths LATER after I have a hundred games or so to get a well-rounded feel for it.

BUT…can someone who uses the full alacrity build a lot please tell me what they typically do?

Do I start in staff and then switch to scepter for clones for shatters? Do I rely only on staff phantasms and the Scepter 2 clone generally?

What is your basic means of survival? You cannot support a team if you are dead! Survival is job 1, with alacrity and boons as a side effect, right?

I saw messiah’s video but he is not using the alacrity build. I am going to use the alacrity build.

Given the different levels of difficulty the matcher throws at different players trying for pips, what are they worth really? I mean, speaking honestly. What are they really worth if you got many easy wins?

You have discovered a longstanding problem that is constantly talked about on the PvP Forum.

Look back over the messages and you will see all sides of this debate.

Laraley.7695:

Burtnik.5218:

Hmm..yesterday i was at emerald t5, today i am at sapphire t4.. From what i noticed sapphire matches are much easier cause they are full of noobs. Grab 2 friends and rekt them all.

Just because you have this experience, doesn’t mean everyone does. My matches got significantly harder when i got into Sapphire. And the amount of premades is higher, too.

+10 on that.

Rebound.3409:

The difference between a competitive team and a pro team (in your example Abjured) is the exact same as the difference between a very good high ranking starcraft player and an actual pro player.

It’s miles..upon miles…upon miles.

Even if it was a joke or not..putting pro-teams that dedicate everything to 1 activity, in an example and trying to justify something with it, is just childish.

It was just the most obvious example that it is not totally up to you. My earlier example of holding up 3 opponents while my 4 team members could not manage to retake even one other point is another example.

Serious Thought.5394:

…If I choose to, I can win my matches.

Even against The Abjured, when you are given low-skilled teammates who give up and stop fighting?

The problem is because the number of pips you get is based on a hard-coded chart within the algorithm that assumes that the winning chance of each team was perfectly accurate to begin with.

Fat Disgrace.4275:

Seems that there is no happy mediem. Rank games are pretty broken for a lot of people and unranked dosnt “reward” you with anything.

That’s why I came to the conclusion that I have to reward me, not depend on the game to reward me, since it doesn’t do it fairly.

Ohoni.6057:

Yeah, and that did comfort me when I was playing unranked and didn’t hugely care whether I won or lost, as it would at most mean a single Daily missed, but now that I need to rack up X number of wins in order to advance the achievement, losses really kitten me off, no matter what the reason for them. I managed to get two wins in a row tonight (out of four total games), and it all came down to the team I was on apparently being pretty good, and the other team probably being kinda bad, but it was at least a lot closer than any of the matches I’d lost before, which were almost entirely blowouts.

Wanting thoses pips is what causes crazy stress when the matchmaker takes so much of it out of your control.

Example, I was bunkering on a node and holding off three other players for quite some time, yet the team I was assigned to could not take either of the other two points, even though there were only two opposing players to fight. That’s what I mean about its out of my control 80%. The team lost that one, I didn’t. I deserved a pip, I know it, but I didn’t get it it.

I decided I just cannot go for all those pips in this environment as a solo player.

Playing solo in ranked matches, I feel so much better when I remember that I cannot do it alone and if we win a match, the team won, not me. And if there’s a loss, the team lost, not me.

I know how I did. Sometimes the team wins but I know I screwed up, in spite of the win. Sometimes the team wins and I can see that I contributed really well. But essentially it’s up to me to know how I did and be honest about it.

Any win or loss is 80% not me. It’s a thing outside myself, for the most part. I just look at how I did on the fights, what decisions I made, did they turn out to be good, that sort of thing. That’s what I can control.

Also, as a solo player, once I realized there’s so much variation in the four people who are assigned with me on a team, that there’s no way I can climb up the ladder. So when I quit worrying about pips, I just start enjoying how well I played on the individual skirmish fights within a match. It’s a lot more relaxing that way. I really don’t care that much about the win, because its not me anyway, it’s the team.

That takes so much of the stress away.

Look it’s a team game. End of story. It doesn’t work to reward people to solo, like they’re fighting mobs. We saw that in solo q 2 years ago.

No, the combat system and the battlefields were designed for teams and team strategy. It’s not a solo game.

In past years people in soloQ just farmed personal score and did not work as a team.

I can relate. It was only today that I finally realized I was desperately trying to create the fun I once had, but just is not available as a solo player in PvP any longer. I backed off and stopped logging in.

I gave up on pips. I might log in to mess with builds, but the pip thing is not worth it and given the matchmaking is disrespectful of the player base, really. Because ArenaNet tells you they have a matching system and that you are evenly matched for the most part, implying that if you lose, it is because you are deficient, not their system.

StickerHappy.8052:

It is very frustrating I am sure a lot of the people complaining here too are part of the the category of what I said.

But let’s be honest it’s not all Anet’s fault but a lot of the populace are baddies too.

Not everyone is born to be a good “twitch” player. Most MMOs up to GW2 did not require the same reflexes, strategies and extensive knowledge of so many class mechanics and animations.

Sam, but at this point in the life cycle of GW2, why would they pay developers and testers to create a soloQ system in a non-subscription game? They had it and took it out. It siphons some people away from ranked and ESports.

I just don’t see it happening. And anyway, I have 4700 games and used to do soloQ, and it wasn’t all that great either…people sync-queued to get themselves on a team and wiped up the pug.

If I had the time to play regularly, I’d really try to get a Teamspeak server and collect some willing, decent players to form a team. I wish ArenaNet would facilitate team formation.

Ghedoriah.4290:

I’m Ruby and I basically entirely yoloq’d my way to Sapphire 4. The only reason I didn’t do that into Ruby was because some guildmates asked me if I wanted to play.

I know it’s a somewhat tiresome refrain to hear, but I’m really not that good, so if I can do it, a huge proportion of the community can do it.

Why exactly do you say you are not that good. In what ways do you suck at the game, and still get to Sapphire 4. Where do you badly need improvement?

Casual solo players seriously trying for pips will be gone from ranked in a few more days. Or sooner.

I can feel the stress and frustration taking its toll reading these posts. Respect yourself. Don’t slam your face into the wall if it ain’t happening and win rate is too low to progress.

There comes a time when a well-adjusted, sane person realizes that these little somewhat random pips are not worth the frustration and constant turmoil and stress.

In our hearts we all know how skilled or not we are at GW2 PvP on our current class.

Pips in this broken system lie to us, both in how good, or how deficient our skills. Look at your games, look at your fights, you know how you did. You know. Just be your own judge.