Guild Wars 2

now that matchups are starting on Saturdays, I am switching to posting probability estimates on Fridays.

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

note that the estimated rating outcomes are based on the ‘short’ matchups that started when Heart of Thorns was released (yesterday). since it’s common for it to take several days for scores to stabilize, the final ratings may differ by quite a lot from today’s estimates, which may throw off the probability estimates by a lot.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

these will be the last matchups before Heart of Thorns is released, and will not count for rating/ranking purposes.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

I knew that it was being worked on, but I didn’t know when it would be ‘opened up’ to the general public. If people prefer to use that web site I can stop posting the numbers in this thread, but right now I don’t know if people prefer this way or that way so I guess I’ll keep posting here for now.

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

on vacation again last week, forgot again. sorry.

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

sorry, was on vacation again last week and forgot to post numbers again.

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

sorry I missed posting numbers this week; I’m on vacation. I’ll remember next week.

probably.

-ken

sorry I missed posting numbers this week; I’m on vacation. I’ll remember next week.

probably.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

in other words, CD tries to take objectives equally.

maybe it seems like they spend more time taking EB objectives because EB fights back harder, so it takes longer.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

sorry about the delay. I calculated these numbers this morning but for some reason I wasn’t able to access the forums.

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

I see NA T1 and T2 are completely locked again, and T3 is half-locked (Mag and SBI are guaranteed, but the third spot still has some variability left).

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken