Guild Wars 2

OK, here are the probabilities for the next matchups (assuming the method I’m using is still valid, which I don’t know for sure yet). If you are in a pairing as a ‘guest’ world then look up the ‘host’ you’re paired with to see who you are likely to play against.

The key files to look at this week are the “na” and “eu” files. If I am accurately predicting new rankings and ratings then everything else is probably good too. If the new rankings and ratings are seriously out of whack then the probabilities are not to be trusted.

I haven’t played in ages and I don’t really keep up with the forums either so I wasn’t aware of the server linking until today.

Yes, last week’s numbers were no good for 2 reasons: server linking (which affects the number of groups being randomized) and the deviation/volatility reset (which affects the amount of randomization applied).

This week we know the new deviation/volatility values, and we know the server groupings/linkings, but I need to figure out how scoring is done in the new system. I suspect that it might be enough to simply drop all the ‘guest’ servers from the data and run the calculations for the ‘host’ servers only so I’ll see about doing that this week and we’ll see what we get.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

due to the reset time change, starting next week I will make these posts on Thursdays.

-ken

seems like this thread isn’t getting updates so for now I’m going to post in the other one only.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken

here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.

-ken

by request, I’m posting estimated probababilities for the upcoming matchups in this thread also. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents.

-ken