I got a Rodgort’s Flame as a drop over the weekend, and the price didn’t go up by 200 Gold. Where’s the inflation for my item???
Technically Rodgort’s is also up 30% which is same percentage as with Legend and Dusk. Your problem is it’s 30% on 60g.
Dusk and Zap are also up, so it’s not unique to The Legend.
Logged into GW2 for the first time in weeks and precursor prices are quite a bit higher — roughly 200g higher for Legend, Dusk, Zap (didn’t check any others).
Here’s the data (in case people think I’m trolling):
http://www.gw2tp.com/item/29180-the-legend
Ignoring the spikes, the prices are 200g higher going back about three weeks. So what’s the best guess at the reason why?
But in a way you are abusing the system, no?
No, you’re just converting dyes that had a low-no value into a gamble attempt at a new dye.
You can do that right now using the Mystic Forge.
Except the mystic forge doesn’t puke out an unid dye, so it’s not much of a gamble — or at least it wasn’t when common dyes were 2s each. As a result the common dyes are now 50% of a unid dye, roughly (which makes sense given that you need two to get a free unid dye after the patch).
Yeah Kid, overall I feel it was sloppy. The entire feature patch feels like a giant hype session — maybe to compete with the other games getting attention right now.
As a result I have the same game I had yesterday, but with dyes that are 10x more expensive. People can argue “it’s good for the market” all they want, bottom line is my experience is worse — and for no other reason than to hype some feature a few weeks away.
Everyone who wants to buy dyes right now for their own consumption (i.e. how dyes are meant to be used) is worse off. How long this lasts has yet to be seen.
The “free unid dye” demand is partially speculation and partially individual players wanting to get some “free” gambles.
I personally believe that unidentified dyes will tank hard and fast on patch day, so those speculators will be left holding a very empty bag.
I hope so too pelion. In turn I hope the flood of unid dyes will then replenish the common dyes, dropping them back down to the 2s range where they were before.
So the consensus I hear is that the market would have reacted the same regardless if the blog said “free unid dyes” or not.
The discussion regarding how the prices would go up regardless of the ’free unid dyes" has been very informative. The talking points make sense to me and I do see how all dyes could have gone up to some degree due to speculation.
However I think it’s a stretch to say the current dye prices (20s for pink) are based mostly on speculation rather than “free unid dyes”. I believe (without proof) that those dyes were consumed in an attempt to get free unid’s later. Speculators would keep the dyes for future profit. ANet could provide data on how many dyes permanently left the market after the blog, but that’s a bunch of work on that end and doesn’t provide much value in this discussion.
In addition, I could argue that speculation would have occurred when the blog topics were published (which was days ago) — yet identified dye prices did not change.
TLDR: I believe the current identified dye prices are mostly due to “free unid dye” in the blog rather than speculation.
Only people who have played for “close to 2 years” had that opportunity.
At 20s, it’s 10x as expensive as previous. Relative is probably what’s important here. You can argue about any price is “not that expensive” because it’s based upon the price, your current liquidity, and your desire for the item.
Making items in the game more expensive is not always a good thing. Someone’s increased value can be someone else’s increased expense.
In short the entire dye market just got more expensive. How is that good for the average player?
“we’re planning something for duplicate dyes but it’s a surprise.”
Would have changed the prices in the same way
No it would not have. Nobody would buy up Pastel Pink Dye, driving the price up to 20s. That’s a big risk at rewards which are????
All indications from the blog would be “reduced demand for dye” because you don’t need to buy dyes for alts. The exception is the portion about “dyes no longer drop”.
I don’t see how anyone would honestly say “it would have been the same” without the mention of “free unid dyes for duplicates” in the blog.
@Wanze: I understand and agree with your post in general. My big issue here is that this same feature (dyes) could have been blogged in different ways. The end-feature would be exactly the same, but the market impact would be dramatically different.
So why blog it to cause such dramatic (and predictable) market changes for dyes?
Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”
There’s a difference between lack of information (resulting in player hate), and information that effects the market… I’m not impacted by player hate.
It is not possible to avoid all market impact from information release. A good example: “We’re going to release ascended armor in the few months”. It’ll impact the market regardless of how you say it (assuming you say it at all).
In this specific case, mentioning the free unid dyes from duplicates had dramatic impact. It was not a necessary piece of information to release in the blog regarding dyes. It could have been left as an unanswered question until patch day, or something obtuse could have been mentioned like “we’re planning something for duplicate dyes but it’s a surprise.”
Anet didnt impact the market, the players do.
As a direct result of information that ANet posted. Cause and Effect — and this one is not subtle in the slightest.
So how does it exactly negatively impact you right now, that someone else feels the urge to pay 20s for a common dye?
The negative impact is pretty clear: I either pay the new price of 20s for the dyes I want now, or wait some undetermined amount of time for the market to come back down to reality (assuming the prices adjust back to pre-blog levels). I can’t see the future, can you?
My question from the start has been “was this intentional?” and “why?”. Everyone seems to feel this was intentional, and I can agree with that (the alternative is incompetence). That leaves only one question… Why?
Anet gave a valueless item some new increased value and gave us all a few weeks heads up to prepare for the change. Its no different than when ascended crafting exploded the prices for the then-useless crafting materials.
The way theyre doing this is all positive in my opinion. It even increases the relative value of all dye packs since even the failed rolls with those will turn out some gold.
ANet gave common, identified dyes an artificial, increased value pre-patch as a result of the blog. They had value before (2s), and now they have a much higher value (20s).
Players did not buy those dyes because they suddenly became fashionable to have. Players bought those dyes to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.
Why fudge with the market like that? What was wrong with Pastel Pink Dye at 1.76s?
I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.
Seriously? You’re saying ommon dyes would go up after the patch because people would “move onto them”? You read what you typed right?
The patch reduces dye demand. What has been created is artificial demand for cheap dyes so Players can get the blog-mentioned free unid dyes.
These are not opinions, it’s factual: Blog mentioned free unid dyes for duplicates — Players snatch-up cheap common dyes to create “duplicates”. Easy cause-effect.
I’m not going to try to push my opinion onto you by using words such as “fact” and “obvious” but I’ll ask a question and let you arrive at your own conclusion. Say the patch goes live, demand for uid’s rise thanks to panic of them disappearing as drops the same way it happened yesterday. You still have a few hole’s in your color pallete and want to fill them in but uid’s are now 1g a piece. What do you do?
Why would you buy unid dyes to fill a “hole in your palette”? Your use case is not a common one.
You are focusing on unid dyes — and I’m talking identified dyes (which is the majority of the dye market). If you want a specific dye, you don’t generally buy unid and gamble for it.
Right now all common dyes are 20s+ — this is 10x higher in price than before the blog (most common dyes were sitting at 2s). The only reason for this increase is information control in the dye blog. That’s fact — not opinion.
I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.
Seriously? You’re saying ommon dyes would go up after the patch because people would “move onto them”? You read what you typed right?
The patch reduces dye demand. What has been created is artificial demand for cheap dyes so Players can get the blog-mentioned free unid dyes.
These are not opinions, it’s factual: Blog mentioned free unid dyes for duplicates — Players snatch-up cheap common dyes to create “duplicates”. Easy cause-effect.
So you planned on buying common dyes right before the patch for no reason?
I have been buying dyes for my cultural armor I just obtained. However that’s not relevant — the prices are the prices, and the patch arrives when the patch arrives.
The common dye prices have changed for one reason alone and that’s the release of the blog. It’s also obvious (with little thought) on how the blog could have been worded different to avoid the entire price change.
As a Player I’d like to know why ANet felt it was necessary to impact that market so substantially. If it was an accident then it’s simple to say “yeah it was an accident”. If it was not, I’d like to know why 2s was not healthy for a common dye.
Yeah, no. I’m sure the marketing benefits of providing previews and pre-release blogposts outweigh the ‘negatives’ of speculative repercussions, especially when there would be virtually no difference between releasing information before changes and during changes.
Except in this case there is a big difference between releasing the information before vs at the patch. Common dyes would still be 2s (if not cheaper) if the information was released with the patch. You are smart enough to see this Vol.
What do you mean with infocontrol?
If it’d be announced 2 weeks before, we would just see tp react 2 weeks before.
Wouldnt it?If the “unid dye” portion of the blog was never mentioned until release it would have avoided much of the current market turmoil.
The only reason common dyes are so expensive right now is because players grabbed them to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.
And what difference does that suggestion make? You would be making this very same post on patch day.
No I would not because the market would not be impacted on patch day. You cannot grab a bunch of dyes to get free unid dyes after the patch is live.
I don’t care about missed profits. I care that I cannot buy common dyes for 2s each right now. Not a single dye is listed below 20s (at the time of this post).
That impacts every player that wants a dye. This isn’t a hard concept. Stop being fanbois and think about it.
Of course it was ‘planned’ and discussed. Why in the world would you think otherwise? Why would you need to question such a thing?
Assuming it was planned and discussed, why wouldn’t I question such a thing?
The market is substantially different. It’s impacting any player that would like to obtain a dye.
Don’t you want to know why ANet felt it was necessary?
Again, I don’t see what you’re arguing over and I don’t see how in any way this should be controversial. What I think I’m getting at from you is that Anet should not release any content whatsoever that should impact any markets.
Again: not arguing — asking. It is controversial because it impacted the market (significantly). As a Player I’d like to know why.
I hope they intended to change the market, because that’s what happened. I like to think one of my favorite game companies has enough experience to not make noobish market mistakes purely due to information control.
TLDR: ANet should not release any information that impacts the market before changes go live.
What do you mean with infocontrol?
If it’d be announced 2 weeks before, we would just see tp react 2 weeks before.
Wouldnt it?
If the “unid dye” portion of the blog was never mentioned until release it would have avoided much of the current market turmoil.
The only reason common dyes are so expensive right now is because players grabbed them to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.
Of course it was ‘planned’ and discussed. Why in the world would you think otherwise? Why would you need to question such a thing?
Assuming it was planned and discussed, why wouldn’t I question such a thing?
The market is substantially different. It’s impacting any player that would like to obtain a dye.
Don’t you want to know why ANet felt it was necessary?
Option 3: It was obvious that this would announcement would shake the market up, but it was unavoidable and the least-bad way of doing things.
How do you think they should have done it? When IRL stuff changes governments often don’t announce it for this very reason; but in this case I think ANet was right to prioritise communication over the blood-pressure of speculators.
I doubt anyone at ANet didn’t see this coming – it was pretty obvious – although they may well have been taken by surprise at the speed of it.
So the TL;DR version: lesser of two evils, and I bet some staff made a killing on flipping dyes.
It doesn’t take much thought-investment to come up with alternate approaches to releasing this information, or in the design of the new system. Some obvious ones that I came up with:
1. BLOG: no mention of unid dyes for duplicate (low market impact)
2. DESIGN: no unid dyes for duplicates after system goes live (lowest market impact)
I don’t quite understand what you’re trying to imply
I don’t think there’s any implication — I’m rather direct with the whole post.
The market has changed substantially. Either it was planned or it wasn’t. If it was not, then it’s a sad example of poor information control. If it was planned, then I’d like to hear why.
It’s a self made mess — I hope ANet is enjoying the outcome. Every dye is less obtainable right now due to the price jumps.
I actually like the feature changes — it’s the handling of the information that is buffoonery. They should never release market impacting details before they are “live” in game.
These kind of short term spikes and falls will happen regardless of what and when the information is provided.
Had they held off until patch day, it would have been a price collapse instead of a spike and people would be equally [insert non-“kittened” word for “angry”… seriously, that was censored?] off.
I think you are oversimplifying it by calling it “short term spikes and falls”. The market is substantially different this morning than it was yesterday morning. How long it will remain substantially different is a question, but I suspect longer than would be classified as “short term”.
You seem intelligent pellion (from your other posts), so I’m sure you can imagine a number of different ways ANet could have handled this information to minimize market impact. You probably could envision an alternative implementation that would minimize market impact.
In addition there’s a significant difference between “interpreting a blog” and experiencing the changes “live” in game. Take this exact blog at face value and remove all mention of “receiving unid dyes for duplicates”. That would have minimized market impact now. It would have created fewer unid dyes at patch time. It would have minimized the market impact after the changes went live. I’m not sure how anyone could see this differently.
All dye prices are up across the board. The common dyes are up 10x over pre-blog prices. Did ANet intend for this to happen? Is it a planned manipulation to remove stock from the market?
In short one of two scenarios occurred:
1. Nobody reviewed the blog to analyze the market impact
2. The blog was reviewed and the market impact understood and desired
There are no other options (when you have a degreed economist on staff). So which was it?
It’s a self made mess — I hope ANet is enjoying the outcome. Every dye is less obtainable right now due to the price jumps.
I actually like the feature changes — it’s the handling of the information that is buffoonery. They should never release market impacting details before they are “live” in game.
The prices are already high as a result of the blog info on “getting unid dyes for all your duplicates”.
At this point it’s safe to say that there will be a lot of unid dyes available after the patch. The question is how will they be used. If all of them are identified, then the prices of all dyes should drop as a result. It’s hard to see all the dynamics.
The sad part is this mess could have been minimized by ANet. There’s a design that would have had minimal impact on the market both short and long term and that’s this: Don’t give anything out for duplicate dyes after the patch.
That would have left the current market with little impact (although prices might have dropped a bit on identified dyes because Players would not be buying duplicates). The long term would see unid dyes increase due to the reduced drop rate (although there’s the counter of a reduced consumption rate).
However the damage is already done and there’s no “undoing” it at this point. The market is at it’s new norm for a while. It’s amazing that ANet threw the market into fits. They have an economist on staff and yet this happens.
I see the dye market is still messed up this morning. I guess nobody stocked up on crap dyes before the careless blog post.
My hope at this point is all the unid dyes that result after the patch are account bound.
The damage is done — not much that can be done about it now.
The problem I see is that this once again further broadens the gap between the average player with little to no gold and the uber moguls with 1k+ of gold. Something needs to happen about this at some point.
Why? This isn’t the real world where the wealthy can use their assets to deny you access to basic needs (governments exist to protect the assets of the minority wealthy from the majority poor and the majority poor from financial harm from the minority wealthy). No amount of wealth in this game can be used to impact another player.
You can impact prices of items you’d “like” to have as a player. That is an impact, although not nearly the same as impacting players on “required” content.
The degree of impact is debatable, but it does and can exist.
Should it impact your enjoyment of the game? No, but unfortunately it does to some degree from Player to Player.
I think they will change the req. to 250 of any dye. hello affordable gift of color
Actually not true right now as no dye is cheaper than 20s.
You’d do even better if you stocked up on dyes worth coppers… as no dye is selling for less than 22s now. The direct result of the blog post.
I expect unid dyes to drop — the market will be flooded after the update (assuming the blog didn’t leave any details out regarding binding… lol, yeah that never happens).
However the cheap dyes will never become cheap in the near future. Those are all being consumed right now to cash in on the unid dyes after the patch. With the changed to dye drops (a bit ambiguous in the blog post), there’s little downward pressure on those cheap dyes.
The reason is because that whole team saw what rewarding 1.3 million abyss dies would do to the abyss price.
So they’re protecting the doods who stocked up on Abyss dyes?
I mean is the Abyss market that important? I can understand precursor market and maybe some high volume commodities… but Abyss dye? Seriously?
How about the current turmoil in the dye market as a whole? That’s your trade for protecting the Abyss dye. All dyes just become less obtainable.
Keeping your laurels is a good move — you can’t get those back with cash or any other means (except time). In a way it’s the most valuable currency in game.
It would be if there was anything worth spending them on.
Every now and then there is — cough, ascended recipes, cough. If you spent them, you’re out of luck when ANet pushes those future changes out.
Also consider the case where someone bought five Abyss dyes… they get 4 unid dyes. Not as pleasant from that vantage point.
You are looking at this the wrong way.
If you have an Abyss dye on 2 of your 5 characters you are not losing 1 Abyss dye, you are gaining 3 free Abyss dyes and 1 Unidentified Dye.
That’s completely true, however ANet engineered this market turmoil by going down the unid dye route. The OP’s suggestion is good in that the markets would have remained unchanged or perhaps dropped slightly due to people holding off on alt dye purchases until after the path — regardless the impact would have been slight if any at all.
Instead the market went a bit nuts. And in typical ANet fashion, it’s probably based on only half the true story. Which is why they shouldn’t have described the exact mechanics at all until the patch went live via the patch notes.
So why are the dyes going up in price, I have 80 unidentified dyed so I should hold into them.?
Too late now, you missed the bubble.
I missed a bigger one sitting on 374 laurels, i’ll keep ’em.
Yea I’m not worried about it, 100 g i probably would of made I can just buy with gems if I really wanted to for 20 bucks witch is less then an hour of work . I’ll save the laurels as we’ll.
Keeping your laurels is a good move — you can’t get those back with cash or any other means (except time). In a way it’s the most valuable currency in game.
HA — nice job ANet — every single “cheap” dye on the TP has shot up 10x in price.
I’m at a loss of words… “incompetent” is the first that pops to mind though.
What would you have them do?
Silence? To be accused yet again of poor communication?Just hope the compensation ones are account bound.
The problem is the communication is mixed and possibly incomplete. Your hope on the account bound dyes is a good example. They didn’t mention it in the blog so you’d think it’s not the case.
If they are going to release information that impacts the market (and this one is a great example), then the information should be complete as possible. Otherwise don’t release the information at all.
In the dye blog, ANet could just as easily omitted details on removing the dye drops and providing duplicates as new unid dyes. That information could have been summed up with “the mechanics will be fully described in the release notes”.
As I said, it’s borderline incompetent — it’s not like they haven’t been doing MMO stuff for at least a year…
It seems poorly thought out, and I suspect Bifrost was a complete oversight.
Delivering the information in a blog post (in whole or part is yet to be seen) is also sloppy. As with Bifrost I suspect this was also an oversite (as it not reviewed by J.Smith prior to posting).
On top of the unid dyes, the garbage dyes have shot up over 10x (20s+ for the the cheapest) on the blog post.
I’ve already ranted in another topic so no need to do it again here, although the blog post was rather incompetent in this regard. I suspect J.Smith didn’t even get to read it.
HA — nice job ANet — every single “cheap” dye on the TP has shot up 10x in price.
I’m at a loss of words… “incompetent” is the first that pops to mind though.
I fail to see how it’s Anets fault… you had the same opportunity as everyone else to buy some extra dyes if you wanted.
Cause and effect is pretty clear. And opportunity is not the same.
It’s pretty obvious from the blog this would happen — any internal review at ANet should have identified it as such. In short, the information regarding dye drops and duplicate dyes should not have been release in the blog. Agreed the same thing would happen immediately after the patch but at that point the entire system is live.
This is not the first time, nor will it be the last. I suspect there are further details not included in the blog that will still impact the market. In some ways that’s worse as it’s almost like a little internal joke around the water cooler at Anet.
HA — nice job ANet — every single “cheap” dye on the TP has shot up 10x in price.
I’m at a loss of words… “incompetent” is the first that pops to mind though.
So unidentified dyes will no longer be drops — in short these will phase out? Can we only get them via laurels?
Also with the blog post, it seems there’s a self-described exploit where every Player can go and set themselves up with 100’s of unidentified dyes when the patch goes live. NOTE: I am not describing how the exploit would occur, but it seems pretty obvious from the blog.
After reading all these posts, I’m actually thinking of trying Wildstar.
Honestly GW2 has grown stale. It feels even more that way in the LS gaps. I also miss the trinity, or at least the teamwork that resulted from the trinty.
The excitement of the “feature pack” shows how desperate the community has become. I see nothing in the features the increases the longevity of the game. You could argue those features should have been there from the start. Having a new build is not going to make me play for 2 more months.
I hope it’s removal of time gating and diminishing returns (dungeon runs, farming, etc). Instead I suspect it’s something stupid that impacts very few people (i.e. no more restrictions on WvW after a server transfer).
In other words, removing restrictions that keep players from buying more gems.
Please read my second post also. The idea behind it isn’t bad. They just took the 6% based on the wrong stat to compensate for the unintended damage done to celestial. It’s easy to fix.
This — just bump the stats by 9% instead of 6% and problem fixed. This is assuming that ANet did not intend to nerf celestial. If they did, then “mission accomplished”.
Very nice analysis Hypnotic, thanks. I was hoping someone would do the full calculations as I mentioned the damage nerf is not fixed by a flat 6% stat increase in another thread.
IMHO to really make celestial worthwhile, they need to split the difference. Regular attribute equipment is best if you want 3 or 4 attributes. Celestial is superior for 6 or 7 attributes. And the two are equal for 5 attributes. 3.4 * 7 / 5 = 4.76 total for celestial, or 0.68 per stat. In other words, they should’ve bumped up its stats by 10%.
Agreed — I was hoping for 10% increased, not 6%.
Just use Celestial on armor and Zerk on trinkets and you will be fine after the patch.
That suggestion is worthless for players that already have Celestial gear.
I finished my last piece yesterday. My main toon is 100% ascended, everything.
I hope ANet is monitoring my usage data — because you won’t see me logging in daily anymore (even if it was for only 5 minutes). You’ll see me only for some organized guild events, but that’s it.
What 36% more overall effectiveness?
They said each stat is getting a 6% buff
Power gets a 6%
Precision gets a 6%
Condi gets a 6%
Toughness gets a 6%
Vitality gets a 6%
Healing Power gets 6%6 * 6 = 36%
I am sorry, i don’t know how to say it any more delicately – you fail at math.
If each part of the whole got a 6% increase, the whole got a 6% increase as well. Not 36%
Except it didn’t, because the critical damage component got halved, so it’s now less than 6%.
lol — you beat me to it. It’s the law of association.
You get a 6% buff in stats (not a 36% buff). If you add all the stats together, it’s still just 6% higher than all the previous stats added together. This could be anywhere from 4.7% to 7.4% depending upon how ANet does the rounding on the individual pieces. I suspect some will be higher and lower to add up to exactly 6% overall on the armor.
I’m a bit disappointed in the 6% figure. I was hoping for more.
Assuming a 40% crit chance: A 30% loss of crit damage is 6.5% drop in DPS. Adding 6% to precision and power does not compensate (if you don’t believe me, pick some numbers and do the math).
These are survivability improvements but they are not OP by any stretch of the imagination.
Stone Heart keeps you alive longer in a PvP/WvW situation but you have to stay in Earth (no lingering elements either!). So you are not killing fast and that merely delays the inevitable.
The fire one is quite interesting tbh, but mainly for dagger or high crit builds with the burn on crit trait. It’s a good trait, but not OP.
The Aqua-Benevolence doesn’t impact you, just your allies — so nothing OP about an ele there.
The Arcane GM one looks pretty interesting. It conflicts a bit with Blinding Ashes because it doesn’t work if you don’t get hit. That’s the down side to this one, you must be hit (and ele’s are a bit squishy). There’s also a cooldown and in PvE the mobs swing so slow. Lastly to maximize your value you have to time your attunement with the hits. So it’s almost like boon “noise” as opposed to really skillful play.
The Air trait looks very good with the interrupt, vulnerability, and small lightning strike.