Guild Wars 2

Thorgal.1287:

oh my god… … I think I’m at around 10500 presents now and no unbreakable yet I shouldnt… I wont try anymore… but I will.. probably.. please Grenth let it be 5th of januari soon…

What size presents are you opening? I’ve gotten them fairly quickly with giant/medium, but I’ve now gone through many thousands of another size with no success. I keep thinking… “what if they screwed-up the drop-rate from this one!”. Paranoia aside, however, there’s no reason to stop trying — it’d feel like a waste otherwise!

At least with the gifts, it’s not an entire loss if you’re mainly interested in the tonic or bell. You can stockpile snowflakes, recipes, and skins, and also reuse any “ugly” items for more gifts.

I support it, and currently have less than 3 silver. ;P RNG benefits those willing to gamble, and I enjoy taking those risks. Those that prefer not to chance the risks, however, can just as easily buy items outright— it works for both sides, in my opinion.

With risk-taking, I’ve acquired and spent hundreds of gold thus-far, and so far have my bell and endless from the bags for this event. I’ll keep pouring gold into them, though, since my wife is still lacking the endless (but she got the bell).

I have fun doing it. It’s only gold, after all.

Likewise, I don’t see anything wrong with RNG. Well, most of the time at least. ;P I’m not sure how some of the mechanics of the game can be redone to avoid it, but even if it’s reasonably possible, ANet still has to consider appeasing the majority of the player-base. What if for example, the majority prefers that element within their gaming-experience?

If there are 500k players enjoying the content right now, and a dozen complaining about the bell, what do you think they’ll do?

Either buy the bell outright, buy the gifts, farm for either of those options, or accept that you won’t get it. Any of those paths pose their own trivial challenge, but that’s the basis of any game. Fortunately, you’re not forced down any certain path — they all involve “wasting” time — so go ahead and “pick your poison”.

I’d prefer if it was tied somehow to the Bell Choir mini-game

If it were a reward for a perfect-score, then that would’ve been great for some. If it weren’t account-bound, however, then it’d still be available on the TP (same as now). If it were account-bound, then people would complain about not being able to sell it.

Since when is buy gifts from TP > spam 1 button a challenge?

Hey, it’s pretty challenging opening thousands of bags! ;P It’s almost as challenging as being able to get 50+ character-levels from crafting, and acquiring a full set of exotic gear (armor, weapons, jewelry, etc)… all from the Trading Post. This game is a trivial challenge in itself, and since that’s the case, you should be annoyed by the game in its entirety.

I’m surprised so many feel disappointed by the trivial challenges of obtaining these items. It costs roughly a gold to buy 250~ bags, and that can be earned fairly quickly at level 80. A day or two of trying could result in a very nice surprise after a while. If not, then just keep trying while you can.

I just hope ANet never adopts an alternative 1-click success play-style. There are other games available for those that would prefer that…

Just finished with five yaks almost at full health, and the only major issue (aside from knowing what to do) was making sure Toxx didn’t get near them. You can get aggro pretty easily, however, and keep him outside for the entire fight. Once he spawns, just don’t all stand inside the center. :-)

The Mystic Forge offers a win or lose outcome.

I wasn’t willing to risk losing the tonics myself, so I didn’t try. If I did, however, then it’d only be my fault. Some people need to learn to admit to, and accept, the consequences of their own actions.

Thanks for the info.

It took between 3-5 tries per Endless Tonic for me.

… and still no mace skins? :-(

I rely on a similar set of shouts, but have been using “Hold the Line” over “Retreat”. I greatly miss the extra speed-boost (still have Staff though), but I believe the (group) damage-reduction and healing provides a higher benefit. If I’m getting hit by 4-5+ — which is often — then one block won’t help me as much. ;P

Well, I wouldn’t suggest relying on ranged-attacks with a Guardian — like said, they’re not that great — but at least we have some options available.

Personally, I prefer Staff due to playing WvW often (love the skills), and it’s not so bad w/ the increased projectile-speed (long-range), but I still mainly use that just to supplement the AoE damage.

Other professions need mobility to survive — we don’t. Sure, we can’t chase-down enemies, or run away very well, but that’s not terribly important (to me, at least) for objectives in WvW. If they’re running, then we’ve succeeded in a task; if I need to run, instead, then we’ve probably failed overall.

Perhaps it’s an issue with how you approach combat as a Guardian? I enjoy providing support, and delaying or distracting the enemy as much as possible —- and I don’t go down easily under most circumstances. I rush, fall-back for cool-downs when necessary, and repeat. The only moment I consider absolute retreat is when my inevitable death would serve no purpose, or when my survival would better benefit the group.

I’ve never seen another profession manage this on the battlefield — at least not to the same degree. If others have stories to tell otherwise, however, I’d enjoy the read (if I check this again).

They don’t appear worthwhile at the moment — some cooking recipes — and the price reflects it.

I’ve harvested maybe 60~ nodes, and have yet to see a Passion Flower — if that helps.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Passiflora

Let’s not exaggerate what happened.

I pushed-forward through the eventual lag that literally left me a spectator for 30~ minutes, and I fortunately only disconnected several times prior to the final battle, but despite being able to finish the event and loot the chest, it does not change the enormous issues surrounding the event. Events should not have these technical issues — they (ANet) “screwed up” — and it should not be marginalized. It’s not a good “business image” to project.

BurningCrow.9816:

Everybody is not a winner. Thats just how it is. Are you the kind of person that believes kids sports should have no losers? I hate that belief.

Likewise, that’s just not “how it is”. Parallel to this scenario, the “winner” between teams would be decided by a pseudo-random number generator, and not the persistence and team-work of either side. The loser, thereafter, would presumably find it unfair for some strange reason.

People took advantage of how an event was designed, and those that didn’t are upset and want revenge (oops, I mean justice)? Even the OP admitted, in a way, that they would’ve done the same —“Wish I had thought of that” -- and I would have as well if I had alternate 80s. ;P

I could actually relate this to the “justice” served by an “angry mob”.

It’d be nice to have all of the crafting-related materials in the collections-tab — I’m not comfortable with them becoming “scattered” throughout boxes. Event-items I don’t mind as much — they can match a “theme” for storage — but the stones/etc I rather just sell than keep unorganized.

I assume, however, that these new basic materials will be in the “collections” tab — makes no sense otherwise. It may have been delayed from “lack of time”, however, or to keep the material-names discrete (if viable).

I have been playing 3 months and dont have ANYWHERE near 180 gold…

Well, gold also comes/goes fairly quickly between all of the sinks. I’ve gambled with the Mystic Forge here/there, but despite casually netting hundreds of gold, after the urges of supporting our characters (wife and I) with the gem-shop, sets of gear, and much more, we have less than 100g in our banks ourselves. Of course, I rather spend/enjoy than re-invest, so it’s not terribly difficult to assume that others (whom enjoy reinvesting frequently) have accumulated thousands of gold.

neoxide.7320:

I don’t like the notion that everyone should be a winner. This attitude is a real issue with people these days because in the real world, not everyone is a winner.

I completely agree. Many believe themselves to be “self-entitled” — deserving just as much as everyone else — but in reality, and as you’ve already stated, not everyone is a winner. It’s usually “earned” — persistence, hard-work, etc. — but in this situation, a pseudo-random algorithm determines if you’re a “winner” or “loser” (in terms of loot, that-is) — regardless of effort — and I believe that causes disappointment in many. In actuality, providing everyone with a chance at a pre-cursor probably caters to the “everyone is a winner” down-fall of our society, and not the opposite.

Neither my wife nor myself were fortunate-enough to have any drop ourselves; it was disappointing, but “no biggie”. If we had a greater need for gold, then I imagine the disappointment would have been more significant — especially when seeing so many have better outcomes. :P

Gold is “precious” in this game — it goes a lot easier than it comes — so I wouldn’t think less of anyone that took advantage of this situation. However, by allowing such easy-access to potential “riches”, ANet is also undermining any of its gold-sinks — for the sake of assisting customers with their precusors. The result? Customers are still displeased, but for different reasons.

It was a decent experience — aside from the lag. I think I spent more time reviving the hordes of fallen than doing any damage, however, but I’m a guardian. ;P

So, is the event going too quickly, or did it lag — which is it? ;P

I think the only serious “watch out” I encountered were those young karkas — the “spit” move (or w/e) definitely takes a good chunk of health off even on a bunker-guardian. When I was in the area with the egg-event, I spent a good 20~ minutes (with a few others) constantly trying to survive 5-6+ at a time. It was very problematic, and I never felt “safe” down there, but ultimately, I’d have to say it’s refreshing compared to being annoyed by the crowd-control mechanics of Orr.

What about Guardian?! ;P I’m a bunker-build, so if they nerf my DPS, well, I won’t really notice. If they nerf my survivability, I just have to learn to survive better. Win-win!

What’s not to like about additional content? If I disagree with it, then it’s an easy decision not to involve myself in it — no biggie.

I am (as are others), however, disappointed with the initial event — especially with the “hype” given; ANet seriously needs to re-think their network infrastructure when planning such.

The skins (first thing I checked) were also disappointing. I wasn’t about to gamble with boxes again, but I was planning to spend a good 50g+ on “unique skins”…. only to discover they’re rather “bleh” looking, and, from what I can tell, still doesn’t include a mace! If the skins can potentially come from spending $$$, then they should be given some proper attention (like some of the Halloween ones).

I haven’t tried much else, however, but I will soon enough. ;P If I don’t care for it, then that’s fine — maybe others will.

Maybe now, those 40+ players will try to learn better ways to fight

… wouldn’t a tactic that resulted in victory be the “better way to fight”? Any tactic can lead to victory/defeat — it’s just some require better organization. Barbaric “zergs”, for example, are no less viable tactics than “turtles”, but guerrilla tactics (or even skirmishing) could very well defeat them both — it’s just more difficult to properly coordinate.

It is easier, however, to complain (or disagree) about the use of certain tactics, and that’s typically expected by a (gracelessly) defeated opponent. Imagine those, for example, that were defeated by the Romans using their own testudo (“tortoise”) formation — I’m sure they didn’t like losing, but they lost, and that’s all that mattered.

For the record… I dislike the use of turtle-formations myself, but mainly because I rather charge-in as a guardian. :-) I’ve encountered a fair share of these tactics, and without coordination, they are extremely difficult to counter — especially since people enjoy mindlessly shooting into a group (and dying) without thinking.

The cost of playing your gambling endgame just went through the roof.

Indeed. My last gamble this morning looked to cost about 2-3x as much, and it didn’t help matters when the first batch of forges produced no exotics. Luckily, my next batch resulted in Spark, so I’ll suspend my gambling on a good note — well, until prices stabilize.

Someone care to try this? :-) Looks like it’d make a supposed “Gift of the Moon”?

Candy Corn (250)
Elonian Wine (40)
Crystalline Dust (10)
Plastic Fang (100)
=?
——————————————————-

Basic Salvage Kit (25)
Trick or Treat Bag (1)
Plastic Fang (2)
Nougat Centers (2)
= Chattering Skulls

Also, the conversion goes back/forth for plastic fangs & skulls.

Similar to others, once I started using a staff, I didn’t go back. :P Its abilities aren’t dmg-oriented, but it definitely adds-up when you consider how long a guardian can stay alive. Plus, they’re a lot of fun to use!

I’m primarily a vitality/toughness build, but I’ve traited/runed into improving boons. I think without orb-bonuses, I sit at close to 3k armor & 18k health, which would’ve been higher without the focus on boons. ;P

What they said… ^^^

I’d be quite irritated if I didn’t have the option to mail gold to my wife/children (or vice-versa) as we play together!

Now it’s not as risk free to make money

I had posted something similar on an older post — if it were 100% profitable (in the long-run), it would indeed defeat the purpose of “gambling”. Whether or not this was “fixed” recently is beyond our knowledge, however, but it’s interesting reading the results others are having.

Sorry, but that is it exactly: a coincidence

What information do you rely upon to be positive that nothing has changed? I’m not sure one-way-or-another myself, and I’m not ignorant enough to blindly make a decision, either.

Buffs/nerfs are for when you did something intentionally, but it turned out your idea was somewhat less than optimal. Fixes are when you just screwed up and it didn’t even match your initial idea (aka bugs).

By your definition, couldn’t you then say the initial RNG algorithm was “less than optimal”, and needed to be adjusted? Semantics can be quite ambiguous — especially for computer/gaming jargon — and be valid either way for many. It’s important to realize that.

I did 8 combines of lvl 80 rare staffs, and 6 of the 8 resulted in exotics (only one was named).

Nice! I think the MF generally yields promising results (from what I’ve read thus far), but sometimes, you’ll hit a significant failure streak — a streak that might be implemented to ruin any previous profits (unless you’ve gotten precursors). Alas, one could call these streaks as “bad luck”, but it’s “bad luck” that’s based on a calculation.

Does it contribute

I find this post informative — especially since I had a similar experience, ankittenrying to follow any relevant experiences.

So it wasn’t a nerf anyway

How do you define “nerf”? In comparison, some professions aren’t “intended” to be unbalanced, so when they’re “fixed”, it’s definitely not labeled a “nerf”, hmm?

EDIT: Apparently, “and am” has a portion censored with “kitten”. :P

Seeing as you’re the one claiming to dispute an already well-established value

Hmmm…? I’ve seen several topics opened about this very concern in the last 2 weeks, and I believe you may have contributed to some of them as well.

in light of a dev explicitly stating this value has not changed since release

Can you post a link to that information? I’d be interested in reading it. Lindsay did respond to my question by confirming the “odds” had not changed in the Oct. 7 patch, but I really should’ve been less-precise in how I asked.

that’s your job

The OP provided their experience, and while 1:25 isn’t a terribly informative set of information, it was alarming enough for them to post about it, and also contributes a lot more than “Welcome to science”.

It appears the “odds” are commonly 20%~ for many, but does sometimes plummet to 10% (or less) on occasion — something that could explain the accusations of diminishing-returns. While the MF may not be subject to DRs, the RNG could have an intentionally fluctuating algorithm (for the so-called “odds”).

Sure, one could argue “that’s just how random numbers work”, which may be true, but computers theoretically cannot calculate random numbers, so that argument does not apply to this issue. For all we know, the RNG algorithm may be designed to limit the “odds”, on occasion, to a mere 1:50.

In comparison, ANet has admitted to implementing “anti-botting” mechanics for loot-drops — after a period of time “farming”, you end-up getting nothing. One could’ve equally argued that it was “just how random numbers work”, but in the end, it’s calculated through computations, and not through natural random occurrence.

If you’d like to say whether something is right/wrong, kindly have a reason to do such. A lot of these posters (including myself) have experienced such, and we know neither one way or another, and would appreciate others’ experiences.

The rough numbers of percentages thrown around are only based on what people have experienced — if it was once assumed to be 20%, but now feels 10%, it’s only natural to assume something changed. If, as an extreme example, someone tried a 1000 forges, and it only resulted in one exotic, then sure, you could still call it “bad luck”, but in the end, we still only base these numbers on our own collective experiences. Unfortunately, from people actually forging, I’m seeing more “it’s been nerfed” than “it’s fine”.

As for arguing with probability… the RNG algorithm, for all we know, could fluctuate between a theoretical 1% to 50% chance on rares → exotics, or it could contain “gaps” of high failure-rates in-between iterations of numbers, or, on a less serious note, provide higher success-rates for players called Bilbo. :-) Due to these circumstances, any probabilities of success/failure are baseless assumptions as is everything else.

I can consider those that took advantage of the karma-items as “cheaters” — that’s an obvious right/wrong situation — but with how much is unknown about the MF, those that did profit with godskull items should be entitled to keep it. If I had been one that did, I wouldn’t think I was doing anything wrong. That’s like saying you’re not meant to get pre-cursor exotics by combining rares, and then labeling everyone that has profited from it as “cheaters”. ;P

Good thing we have those overpriced waypoints and armor repairs huh?

Hey, sometimes when I gambled my last silver and had all the exotics tied-up in the TP, I had to bum some silver off of my wife for a waypoint. ;P

Well, increasing its chances will only reduce its theoretical “value” — it’d be a smack in the face for those that did decide to fork-over the gold (excluding “cheaters”). If they instead give it a flat-rate price from a vendor (as per someones suggestion), it’d further cripple the economy and, well, be no different than WoW’s gold-sinks (chopper, vial, etc). There’s really not much for people to spend gold on besides this, either, unfortunately — aside from getting gems — so that’s another issue. :-)

ANet is facing a very complex problem in general, and the economist is probably going bald from pulling his hair out over it.

HolyCowBBQ.6371:

“We gonna monitor precursor’s price!”
->go nerf mf %

Funny. ;P

Soaring pre-cursor prices do generate a decent revenue for ANet. Thousands of dollars are pouring into the gem-market just so people can afford them — probably $200-400/per — but that’s the result of blending vanity with impatience! ;P

Well, Lindsay said it hadn’t changed with the Oct. 7 patch, which did answer my question and probably was true. It’d be a change server-side anyways, and could’ve been thrown in with any moment of downtime (if even necessary).

It’s nice to know I haven’t stopped gambling without cause — I keep thinking “what if it was just for those few days”… ;P But when you go from getting 2-3 in a row quite often, to barely getting 1:10, it’s not worth it anymore.

I’m not sure if this has been said or not, but the outrage for pre-cursors (soaring prices included) is unfortunately one of only things (I can think of) that’s helping keep the overall end-material economy going. Once removed, prices will fall much harder than they have already — the TP will consist of dirt-cheap materials, rares, and exotics. Right now, people buy anything cheap for a shot at a pre-cursor. For example, the guy that just bought tens of thousands of mats, or others that are buying every cheap rare/exotic that’s listed (weapons).

It’s a win/lose situation, and I doubt they can “fix” it without significant impacts.

There might not have been any change at all — for all we know, it’s within the specifications of the RNG algorithm. Still, it’d be nice if ANet did a test of 10k forges (or more for pre-cursors) and at least revealed the “odds” to the community. I don’t see any harm in that, well, aside from people knowing if they should risk their currency or not.

iBlasiannn.4279:

Ok, first of all you used rare weapons which has a 0.01% chance of getting a precursor. I used level 80 exotics and got “the lover” on my second try. But still 1,500 rares is unlucky, but 0.01% speaks for itself.

… and where do you get a definite 0.01% from?

The rare→exotic chance dropped to 10% (from 20-25%~) for me about a week ago. Some experienced the same drop, but it looks like others are fine, so without precise details from ANet, we’re stuck with “it’s just bad luck”.

I had a similar issue a week or two ago, and a complete exit resolved it. Simply going to character-select didn’t work, however, and I imagine because a lot of the game-information remains cached.

The 5% is especially comforting when you realize you don’t have the 20g just to match an order. At that point, you have to clear out your entire collections-box to pay for the bird’s early retirement.

If I were to make an assumption, then “bots” possibly contribute to 1% (if even that) of the economy’s issues.

Like I said it doesnt matter now anyway, economy is trash, best way to make money is simply to grind

Yes, and many, I assume, think the same. It’s due to the massive amount of legitimate players that the economy is “trash” — more people are selling, and less and less are buying.

Supply/demand in an economy where gold is (for most) a problem to obtain (or maintain) will result in an overabundance of supply, and a dwindling demand (as per usual). Throw in the lovely human qualities of greed and impatience, and you have a nicely undercut TP (and upset players).

Well, restricting orders to be within 115% of vendor price might be helpful — it’d be easier not to list items that would result in less profit vs. just selling to a vendor.

RShara.3265:

I think purging all of the buy orders that can’t be filled because they’re below vendor price would be good.

The sell listings at 1c above vendor price would be nice too, but I don’t expect that one to happen.

1) Reset all buy/sell orders? Not only will that nullify the time thousands have spent placing orders/etc, but more importantly, it’ll reduce the TP to a premature state. As soon as it’s reset, expect thousands of very-low orders (purposeful, or unknowingly) to be placed. It’d ultimately take advantage of those unaware of market values, but I imagine that only the “tip of the iceberg” for such an action.

2) Limit listings to 3-days (or whereabouts), and offer a refund afterwards? The current system (no limit w/ 5% fee) works fine. If items are within a range where they won’t buy/sell, then where does the problem lie? The TP has a massive user-base, and undercutting will occur regardless, but if the risk from undercutting is removed (your suggestion), then it’d only occur more frequently (instead of items simply being “stuck” in the TP).

3.) 5% fee to limit “rampant” buy-orders? What’s wrong with an economy that… buys and sells?

Putting a 3 day limit will severely cripple this tactic

Tactic? People are buying and selling as per any community — if they list too low, it’ll be bought, or if they list too high, it won’t sell.

No people will list them so high, fearing they will lose money in the process.

Hmm? Perhaps I’ve misunderstood, but wouldn’t those people get their money back with your 3-day-limit suggestion (w/ refund)?

Could it be a reasonable way of dealing with the crafting problem and the TP depression? What do you think about it?

If the problem(s) pertain to supply/demand (whether or not its influenced by “bots”), then I don’t see how penalizing buyers/sellers is going to solve anything.