I think they’re trading information back and forth.
Yes, I do believe you’re correct in stating they’re getting live data directly from the Trading Post, but if you read around their site, they state that item data is prioritized and some of it is on longer delays than others to go and GET that data.
What that means is while THEY are getting live data, the API they’ve provided to the public does not return live data. It returns the last data set they queried. That means that the data the public is getting can be delayed anywhere from 30-60 minutes if I recall correctly.
GW2Spidy is getting their information by using the “non-public” API provided by GW2DB…which is a Guild Wars 2 Guru run website. They are simply repackaging some of the information and allowing the public to use it.
The real problem with GW2Spidy’s data is that it’s delayed. Although, markets don’t move THAT fast to make a 30-60 minute delay much of an issue. I know it’s not an issue for me because when I’m doing my trading, it’s mostly an overnight thing. Place buy orders before I go to bed, then pick the items up when I log in the next day and do whatever voodoo I do and sell them.
Not really. Search around the internet a bit…even on these forums. There’s actually sites that give the web link to the official LIVE Trading Post website. By sending requests to that site using an authentic (and active) GW2 account, you can get live data of any item on the Trading Post.
I was actually thinking of creating something similar myself….
And yes….it is worth it.
While Spidy is a great tool, it only gives basic information. I use Spidy to fill pricing data into my spreadsheet, but it’s my research into certain items and markets….along with algorithms that truly let me take advantage of the Trading Post. Also, Spidy only gives you information 1 item at a time. What if the application you used scoured the whole of the Trading Post and cross-referenced different markets to tell you the optimal path to maximize your investment? Let’s say you can make a 30% profit buy just working in one market, but if you took that (those) items, turned them into something else, then used those items to craft something, then used THOSE items in the Mystic Forge to make a 500% profit….wouldn’t that be more efficient?
Once those relationships are made, the data is collected and the analysis is run….that is a VERY probably outcome.
It can be found in Black Lion Chests:
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest
The drop rate research for items from the chest is here:
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate
There’s no data for the item you’re looking for, so my guess would be the chance to get it is VERY small, so as XGhoul.7426 stated…..you’re probably better off buying it from the Trading Post if you want it.
Really? Wasting Black Lion kits on rares is a horrible idea. You save them for exotics with valuable runes.
I can’t watch the video at work because our company blocks YouTube, but based on this response the only thing I see happening is this thread getting a LOT of views….and ending up with a lot of disappointed people.
@OP
Btw…..if this is such an amazing way to make easy money, you’ll learn that you should keep these things to yourself, because in a matter of hours…..it won’t be profitable anymore.
How is pretty relevant to why – the speed at which you can assess the field absolutely dictates your strategy. Wether you are setting up transactions every few minutes, hourly for 5 hours, or one time per day totally alters the optimal undercut.
You make a very valid point. I guess the reason I said I didn’t want to know “how” was because I was assuming that the people that would participate in this discussion are in the Power Trader category. Those people have spreadsheets, databases, market knowledge and other tools that they use that tell them which items to buy and sell.
To ask the questions that Nike.2631 proposed…..
How do you determine how often to buy and sell….and subsequently….how to price your items for sale?
I am also using GW2Spidy’s API to automatically populate a spreadsheet, but not for flipping. This isn’t really what I wanted to talk about with this thread.
I don’t want to know HOW people are playing the Trading Post. I want to know WHY people that are playing the Trading Post price their items the way they do….and the theories they’ve developed to come up with those prices.
I gave an example of what I thought might be a good strategy for pricing items like Precursors or Legendaries….but I want to know what other people think….not only about the strategy I posted, but also strategies or theories in other types of markets.
@Snoring Sleepwalker
You stated that you’re flipping items. How do you buy/sell them? What’s your strategy? Do you simply buy at 1c above and sell for 1c below, or is there more to it?
To give an example of what I’m doing:
I currently play in a market where I’m able to buy commodities and turn them into something else. Some of these commodities can yield me upwards of 300% profit. The other night, I noticed that one of the items I buy was priced at a point where I could buy out all of the current stock, turn them into something else, and STILL make 150% profit or more.
While this is a special case and doesn’t happen very often, it will happen again if I leave it alone for a while.
Normally I’m looking at items that yield me around 50%+ profit margin. I do this because I value my time. This also allows me to evaluate the current supply and demand and attempt to gain some of the “hidden supply” and “hidden demand”. These hidden commodities are actually what I’m after most often. They’re the ones sitting in someone’s inventory that they haven’t sold yet (hidden supply), or that they want, but the price point isn’t to their liking (hidden demand).
To achieve some of this hidden supply, I evaluate the profit margin at the current buy price. If it’s 100% or more, which several of the things I buy are, I may overcut the existing highest buy order to entice those with items in their inventory to sell them to me immediately. It also closes the gap between the buy and sell price. Once my orders fill, the prices return to normal….until I place another buy order on the same item. Once I receive these items and turn them into the new items, I may sacrifice some more of my profit in order to move them quickly by severely undercutting the lowest sell price. This brings out some of the hidden demand and by severely undercutting the previous price, doesn’t lend itself to undercutting as much. Most sellers won’t sacrifice their profits to undercut me and will just wait until my stuff is sold so they can make more money.
I use these strategies because I feel I can make more money in less time because I can quickly reinvest the money I make to buy more stuff, turn it into something else, and make more money. I’m willing to make less profit more often so I can reinvest it quickly. I never invest in things without a high profit margin to back it up. That way, if the market shifts, I’m still going to make money….and that’s why I’m playing the Trading Post to begin with….to make money.
(edited by Charismatic Harm.9683)
While I initially started the post talking about trading in general, I soon realized that there are far too many factors to consider and there is no one way of pricing items that applied across the board for all things traded on the BLTC.
The examples I gave at the end of my original post focused solely on a high value, high demand, low supply market….such as Legendary Weapons and their precursors.
There probably aren’t as many people with their money invested in those markets though. I’m sure that it is a few people / guilds that are attempting to control the prices of those markets. So, the examples I listed above are in the attempt to give those people controlling the market a reason to buy your item instead of either waiting for yours to sell, or pulling their listing and undercutting you.
In markets that are highly fluid, that have 10,000’s of trades a day, and have buy and sell prices that are close together….none of the above examples apply.
I think that most of the information I stated in the first 2 posts of the threads applies to the game at large, but since there are a great deal many more Power Traders that read the forums than there are those controlling the high end markets, a market analysis of “proper pricing” in a lower end, more highly fluid market may be a better discussion.
I’m not trying to get anyone to give away any specific items they’re trading in, because we all know that once that item is leaked as “profitable”, it soon becomes VERY unprofitable.
If anyone has any ideas or theories regarding those lower markets, I’d love to hear them.
It sounds to me like you’re either an Average Player or a Power Trader. The difference between the two being the volume at which you trade. If you’re only doing a few trades trying to unload your item, I’d say you’re an Average Player. If you’re participating in 100’s or 1,000’s of trades a day, you’d be a Power Trader.
You do not fit into the Market Manipulator category….at least not in the definition I gave above.
My theory on a “proper” price point
I know when I sell things, I want to make as much money as I can as quickly as possible. Before now, I haven’t put my thought into it. I usually just sold things at the current Sell Price and if I got undercut….so what? I was still going to make money eventually, even if I had to pull some of my listings and list them at a lower price. The problem I’ve had with this method of listing items is that I’m continually being undercut by other sellers and it could take up to a week or more to sell. This means that I’m actually losing money. My items aren’t selling, so I can’t reinvest that money to make more money.
I believe the real key to pricing an item is estimating the Hidden Demand for that item. We can see on the Trading Post the Actual Demand and the Actual Supply, but there’s a price point in between there where someone that doesn’t have a Buy Order in will buy your item. What we want to do is maximize the number of people that might want to buy our item….and this could be other sellers of the same item. So now it’s time to look at the price.
In order to pull in other sellers, especially on high value / high demand / low supply items, like Legendaries or precursors, we need to entice them to buy OUR item by pricing it so they can still make money on it, but we get our money now. This is where it gets complicated and because it’s complicated, I’d like to try and use a simple example.
Example:
The Lowest Sell Listing for the item you want to sell is currently 100g. The seller had to pay 5g to list that item and will pay an additional 10g when the item sells, yielding them 85g.
While you could list your item for 99g99s99c and put yourself first in line, you’d be missing out on one or more potential buyers…..including that seller. How can you price your item so that that seller and buyers in the “Hidden Demand” are more likely to buy your item?
Let’s look at some various percentages to see if we can find that “magic number”. Keep in mind that I’m trying to pull that other seller in to buy my item and the lower the price is, the more potential buyers there will be.
Original Seller’s Listing
Sell Listing: 100g
Listing Fee: 5g
Selling Fee: 10g
Final Return: 85g
Your Listing @ 1c less
You See
Sell Listing: 99g99s99c
Listing Fee: 5g
Selling Fee: 10g
Final Return: 84g99s99c
Original Seller Sees
Purchase Price: 99g99s99c
Listing Fee (100g): 5g
Selling Fee (100g): 10g
Final Return: 85g – 99g99s99c = -14g99s99c
There’s NO WAY you’ll get the Original Seller to become your buyer. It’s more likely they will pull their listing and undercut you, or just wait it out. This isn’t a very good situation for you because if they do pull and relist, you’re going to end up losing your Listing Fee if you pull and relist…or you’ll be the one having to wait it out.
Your Listing @ 5% less
You See
Sell Listing: 95g
Listing Fee: 4.75g
Selling Fee: 9.5g
Final Return: 80.75g
Original Seller Sees
Purchase Price: 95g
Listing Fee (100g): 5g
Selling Fee (100g): 10g
Final Return: 85g – 95g = -10g
It’s not likely that the Original Seller will become your buyer because they won’t want to throw away 10g
Your Listing @ 10% less
You See
Sell Listing: 90g
Listing Fee: 4.5g
Selling Fee: 9g
Final Return: 76.5g
Original Seller Sees
Purchase Price: 90g
Listing Fee (100g): 5g
Selling Fee (100g): 10g
Final Return: 85g – 90g = -5g
This is getting better. Depending on how quickly these items sell, the Original Seller may be more inclined to buy your item because if they plan on pulling their listing to undercut you, they’re still going to be out 5g.
Let’s do one last example….
Your Listing @ 15% less
You See
Sell Listing: 85g
Listing Fee: 4.25g
Selling Fee: 8.5g
Final Return: 72.25g
Original Seller Sees
Purchase Price: 85g
Listing Fee (100g): 5g
Selling Fee (100g): 10g
Final Return: 85g – 85g = 0g
In this situation, there is a much higher likelihood that the Original Seller will become your buyer. They can buy your item and relist it without much risk of losing money. They aren’t likely to pull their listing and undercut you either. They’d stand to lose too much money.
I think the better position would be to post your item in the 12.5% less range. That way you can maximize YOUR profits while enticing current sellers to buy your item AND pull in some potential buyers that feel like they’re getting a deal buying your item.
What do you think? Is there any merit in this kind of thinking?
Undercutting: Should YOU do it?
The answer to this question is really up to you. I believe there are many factors involved when someone is posting something on the BLTC for sale. I know when I post items for sale; I’m looking at the following things (in no particular order):
-Supply
-Demand
-Highest Buy Order Price
-Current number of Buy Orders at highest price
-Lowest Sell Listing Price
-Current number of Sell Listings at lowest price
-Number of Sell Listings at higher prices (occasionally)
-Vendor Value of the item I’m selling
-Spread between Buy and Sell price
-Am I currently selling any of the same items?
-How quickly do I want my money?
-What is my profit margin?
-How much money will I make from this sale?
-Who am I competing against? Average Player, Power Trader, or Market Manipulator?
-Hidden Supply
-Hidden Demand
Selling your item: How much should you list it for?
After writing much of this thread, I realized that this section really only applies to Power Traders. The pricing methods used by many of the Average Players and Market Manipulators have very different goals in mind.
The real question for me is: What is the “best” price to list an item for in order to receive my money quickly AND maximize my profits?
In order to answer this, I believe that the only way to know is to see a supply and demand curve, but even then, there is no “magic” price. The best we can do is estimate it. There are several prices at which we can list an item:
1.) 1c above the vendor value
2.) Somewhere between #1 and Highest Buy Order price
3.) At the Highest Buy Order price
4.) Somewhere between #3 and the Lowest Sell Listing
5.) At the Lowest Sell Listing
6.) Somewhere above #5
The first 4 price points are all undercutting; the only difference is how much you’re undercutting your competition. Since the topic of this discussion is undercutting, let’s eliminate price points #5 and #6. I think we can also eliminate #1, #2, & #3 because part of determining our “proper” price point is also to maximize profit in the least amount of time.
That leaves us with a price point somewhere between the Highest Buy Order and the Lowest Sell Listing. For many, this is obvious, but I wanted to state it anyway.
I’ve seen a lot of threads lately that talk about undercutting in the BLTC. I’d like to propose some theories as to why people undercut other sellers and see if there is a method to determine a “proper” value at which to undercut. I’m sure some will say that undercutting in any way, shape, or form is wrong, but honestly, it’s going to happen, so we may as well embrace it.
Depending on the responses to this thread and whether or not it completely derails, I have ideas for other “game theory” threads regarding the BLTC such as, “Flipping”, “Overcutting”, and “Market Manipulation”.
Well…..on to the theory part of this thread.
Undercutting: Why do sellers do it?
First, we probably need to look at the types of players that are selling items on the BTLC. I believe there are three types of players (excluding bots) selling things on the BLTC: Average Players, Power Traders, and Market Manipulators.
Let’s look at the possible motivations for undercutting of each player type
The Average Player:
This is a pretty big demographic of the player base in GW2. It ranges from those that are completely devoid of knowledge in regards to the Trading Post to those that are working their way to becoming Power Traders.
The lower tier of these players just wants to sell their stuff to try and make a little bit of money. They don’t do any research. They have no idea what their item is worth. They go solely off what the item is selling for currently. I would guess that many of these players list their item for 1c less than the current sell price and move on.
The middle and upper tiers of players have knowledge regarding item pricing and want to maximize their profits. They do so by trying to buy low and sell high. They may or may not be calculating TP fees into their profit calculations. I would guess that many of these players also list for 1c less than the current sell price, but they’re doing so on specific items in an attempt to maximize profits.
The Power Trader:
These players are the ones with spreadsheets, calculators, data acquisition tools and other things that help them to evaluate each and every trade they make to determine how to squeeze every copper out of every transaction in the shortest time possible. Some are solely focused on one or two items and they grind it out all day long. Others are diversifying into multiple markets. You’ll see a lot of 1c undercutting going on here too, but the savvy seller is attempting to determine the correct price point to not only maximize their profit, but also receive the money for the item as quickly as possible so they can reinvest it.
The Market Manipulator:
These players are trying to do one of two things. They’re either trying to drive the price of a commodity down or trying to drive it up. Either way is risky and takes a great deal of patience, luck, and money. Their motivation to do so is that they either need that given commodity, so they’re driving the price down using their current stock so they can buy more at a lower price, or they’re trying to make more money from a high demand item by buying out lower priced items and selling everything off at a higher price. I’ve been seeing this practice a lot more recently for commodities used in creating Legendary Weapons.
You have my point entirely incorrect. I never said YOUR opinion was wrong. I never said YOU were among those that feel they “entitled”. I also never said I was happy or content with their decisions as to sales, events, etc. Nor did I say I’m fine with cheap manipulative tactics to raise money.
What I did say was that ArenaNet is a business. A business whose goal is to make money. In order to make money, they made a VIDEO GAME. Within that video game, they have chosen to conduct sales and one-time-only events to get players playing their video game and generate income.
The “shady” tactics that they use may be the same ones that other retailers use….and there’s a reason for it. THEY WORK!!!!
They play on human nature. They play on the fact that people think they’re getting some kind of deal on something and are willing hand over money to get in on that deal.
ArenaNet did not make this game for me. They also didn’t make it for you. They made it for everyone.
I think the following quote sums up my stance.
“You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time.” – Abraham Lincoln
I agree with many of the things you’ve said in your post. I, too, believe trading is good for the economy.
I see SO many complaints about the Trading Post, but I think the reason people are complaining is because they’re looking inward at how different things affect them. They’re not looking outward at how the Trading Post has actually HELPED the Guild Wars community. I wish people would stop being so selfish and only thinking about how things affect THEM.
Look at the bigger picture. Guild Wars 2 was NOT created for YOU. It was created for all of us.
So many thing have been made easier with the implementation of the Trading Post. I know it’s not finished. I look forward to the minor tweaks ArenaNet adds into it later one. I see it becoming an amazingly fluid tool for buying and selling.
It probably won’t happen for one simple reason….
Underwear + Flesh Tone Dye = Naked
I love seeing all of these arguments about the length of these sales. Some saying they should be longer….even permanent. THAT is ridiculous!!!!
Do you also go down to your local Target or Macy’s and complain to them that they need to extend their Black Friday Sale….or their 3-Day Only Sale? Do you tell them they need to make them permanent?
You missed out on the sale. Get over it.
I bought my character slots right when the game came out. Should I too be upset that they put them on sale? Should I request a refund of the price difference? I only missed the sale by a few months. Should I have waited?
Boo hoo…..poor me.
Anet used a sale tactic employed by nearly EVERY retailer to generate business. Good for them. They made money. You do realize that they’re in it to make a profit….right? You also realize that there’s no subscription to play this game, so they need to make their money somewhere…..right? To complain about not being able to purchase items on sale that you DON’T NEED to play the game is kind of ridiculous.
The REAL problem is a sense of entitlement. Many players feel they should have instant access to everything everywhere at any time……for free.
If you honestly hate ArenaNets practices, sales, support, or whatever else SO much…..go play another game. I know that I won’t be sorry to see you leave because the community will actually be stronger without you.
While I may not agree with everything ArenaNet does, I don’t fault them for trying to make a buck. It’s the reason they created Guild Wars 2.
Check the number of mail messages you have in your inbox. If you have 10/10, then new messages are stored in the background until you clear out some space for them.
Items purchased from the Gem Store are delivered by in-game mail. Delete some messages, then check again. If there is a backlog of messages, they should pop into your Inbox fairly quickly.
I hope this helps.
I’m complaining about exactly what Hexgame said. I could go to almost any other retailer and they would acknowledge the sale price as long as the purchase was made within a certain time period of the sale. This is quite honestly the first time I’ve run into a company that won’t do that, so I was taken aback by it.
You’re not addressing the subtle difference between items for sale for gems in the Gem Store and items you buy from a local retailer.
The difference is that the items you buy from your local retailer are returnable. The items from the Gem Store are NOT.
The reason that local retailers will offer you a refund of the difference in the purchase price is because if they didn’t, you’d just do a full return on the item, then immediately buy it back.
Since none of the items in the Gem Store have any kind of return policy, and as an Anet representative stated, “all sales are final”…..they have no motivation or necessity to return any part of your purchase price.
I think the lesson here is to determine your goal. You were ok with spending that money on gems to purchase the item at the time your purchased it, right? You’re only upset now because had you waited, you could have saved a little money. It’s not that you’re upset that you bought the item(s)….you’re upset that you bought the items WHEN you bought them.
Just enjoy your character slots…..it’s the reason your bought them in the first place.
The only way I could see ArenaNet implementing direct trade is if it was a barter system ONLY.
No gold can be transferred during a trade. It could only be item(s) for item(s).
If you thought the message spamming in GW1 was horrible, a direct trade system, even if it was barter only, would be SO much worse.
ArenaNet could have taken a different direction with this specific exploit. Their original thought was to provide the playerbase with a cool Wintersday themed item. The problem occurred when players realized they could salvage more ecto out of the item than what they put in. ArenaNet could have just disabled salvaging of that current item.
It would have allowed players to continue making them and selling them, but they couldn’t be salvaged. There are all kinds of items in the game that can’t be salvaged.
I’ve been getting this more frequently as well.
I’ve started going under the assumption that when I press the “Buy” button, the transaction will go, and has gone, through.
I made the same mistake as you the first couple of times buying far more than what I needed. Luckily…..I ended up needing the extras as well, so it saved me going back to the TP again.
I would suggest you just press the button once and give it more time to register the transaction….even if you get the error.
While I, too, hate getting undercut (or overcut on the buy side), let’s take a look at some simple math as to why a “Gentlemen’s Agreement” on this forum won’t work.
We’re going to have to make some assumptions….and some of them will be generous….
Let’s say there are 1,000,000 players playing Guild Wars 2…..
50% of those players use the Trading Post (500,000)
50% of those players use the Trading Post frequently (250,000)
10% of those players are power traders (25,000)
10% of those players read these forums (2,500)
10% of those players will read this thread (250)
So…..if you can get 250 players to sign your agreement…..what impact do you really think it will make on the undercutting issue?
The answer is none. It won’t make any difference and those 250 players will only be hamstringing themselves.
It would be nice if we lived in an ideal world where people actually cared about other people….but we don’t live there….and Tyria is DEFINITELY not there.
This is a game. People are out for themselves and only themselves. It’s a sad, but simple, fact!!!
Disclaimer: I don’t work for ArenaNet, so the following is just my opinion.
I believe the stack limits are in place for the selling side and are only carried over to the buy side for simplicity of coding.
The stack limit on the sell side requires multiple transactions to sell a large number of the same item. Those transactions are timed and counted so that you can only place a certain number of sell orders in a given amount of time (determined by ArenaNet). THIS is how stack limits are used to combat botting. If those stack limits didn’t exist, a player (or bot) could post a single sell order for a LARGE number of a single item without hitting the “Unable to Sell” error. WITH the stack limits, it forces multiple transactions, thereby causing the “Unable to Sell” error to occur more frequently….thus slowing down botting….and slowing down real players too.
For the average player, I bet they rarely see the “Unable to Sell” error, but for power traders (like me) and bots…..we see it ALL THE TIME!!!!
There are far fewer power traders than there are average players in this game, so ArenaNet decided to implement a system to reduce botting that affects a smaller portion of the player base.
Basically….if we want to trade like bots….then we’re going to be hindered like bots.
What is your idea for combating botting while leaving the power trader to do his business un-hindered? If you have one….I’d love to hear it. I’ve thought about it long and hard and have yet to come up with anything that doesn’t either hinder the entire player base or couldn’t be easily circumvented by a creative botting program.
I don’t think it would make it more obvious to who is and who isn’t botting.
I deal in the 10,000’s of items on a daily basis. I’m NOT a bot. I HATE botters and think they should all be banned.
I guarantee you that if Anet determined that the volume in which you trade was a metric that determined who is botting….I’d be tagged as a botter. I wouldn’t like that at all.
The solution to botting has yet to be determined. There isn’t a game out there that’s figured it out yet. If there were, we wouldn’t see any bots anymore….at least not until the botters figured out a way around that system.
The key is to find a minimally intrusive system to players that is a GIGANTIC pain for botters. I hope someday game developers figure it out, but until then…..this current system isn’t that bad. It could be worse.
We all agree that the stack limits are annoying, but is there really a better way to combat botting?
Maybe it doesn’t make any difference. Maybe it does. Who knows?
I think if stack limits and the sell timer were removed from the TP, everyone’s speeds would increase….including bots.
The question I have is….
Is there a way to reduce the buying / selling speed or effectiveness of bots without also reducing it for real players? I honestly don’t think there is.
If a human can do something, then a human can figure out a way for a bot to automate the same task. THAT is what botters do.
Most silly argument ever made. How about preventing bots, while not hindering players? I dont understand why gamers so readilly accept limitations under false pretenses that its for their own good.
It sounds like you have an amazing idea to combat botting on the TP without negatively affecting players as well. Do tell!!!!
Until an idea comes up that will actually work, the current system IS acceptable…..IN MY OPINION.
I’m here, too. Really, I can make 100g+ a day very reliably, and without any form of manipulation.
That’s awesome!!! I’m happy to hear someone else is able to “play the market” too….without manipulation or “cheating”.
P.S. I LOVE the market manipulators…..they make me SO MUCH MONEY!!!
I think that ArenaNet has a good system in place already. There isn’t really a need to change it.
If they WERE to change it, I suggest they only do so on the Buy side. The limits they have in place to reduce mass selling hinder botting on the TP. They don’t stop it completely, but they do slow it down. This also hinders real players, but that hindrance to slow down botting is acceptable, imo.
I have a feeling if they eliminated the stack limit on the Buy side, bots would just be able to place buy orders faster, but I don’t know if that would negatively affect anything. I’ve tried thinking about it, but couldn’t come up with anything.
If ArenaNet wanted to make a change, I would suggest they leave the Sell side the way it is and remove the stack limits on the Buy side. I doubt they’ll make that change though….especially seeing as it functions just fine the way it is.
They use manipulation. You can make a solid amount of profit via normal market trading, but big bucks come either from lucking out on trades or manipulating the market.
You are SO naive if you believe this is the only way to make money.
I do NOT participate in market manipulation.
I have NOT gotten “lucky” on any trades I’ve made.
…..and yet, I am able to make enormous profits on a daily basis.
Currently, with the investments I’ve made, I can make MORE than 100g in profits each day. It wasn’t always like this though. When I started, I was only making about 2g per day, but as I made more money, I had more money to invest. As I had more money to invest, I was making more money.
I only focus on reliable, repeatable items that have a profit margin of 50% or more. Most people want to think about how much gold they can make….and that’s where their logic is flawed….especially if they don’t have much money to start with.
What you SHOULD be looking at is Profit Margin!!! Even if you don’t have much money to invest, you can still build your bank to a respectable amount in a short time.
If you’re looking at items with a 50% Profit Margin (that takes into account your initial investment and the fees to sell the items), you can turn 1g into 100g in a matter of weeks. Trust me. I did it.
For those that will ask HOW I did it, I am not about to give away the items I’m trading, because that would be stupid. As soon as I do, the profit margins will drop into oblivion and I won’t make any money anymore.
The key is figuring it out for yourself. I say this because those that KNOW how to make money also know how much work it took them to figure it out and aren’t about to just give that information away for free. Once you figure it out….you’ll understand too.
To sum up…..you need to invest in things with a good Profit Margin. What’s good? That’s up to you. Personally….I like making 50% or more on my money. There aren’t a LOT of items that I can do that on….but there are enough that I can make quite a bit of money each day.
Think about it….if you’re making 50% profit, you can turn….
1g into 1.5g
…..or…..
100g into 150g
…..or…..
1000g into 1500g
So those that are making 50-100g per day (like me) have a good amount of money to invest based on starting small, putting in the work, and investing intelligently.
I did it…..so can you.
PS EDIT: I’m starting to think Harm is mad because I’m From Devona’s rest and my Guild and server smashed his server. Been seeing alot of HoD hate on my posts…
LOL!!!!!!!! I’m not mad because of WvW. I’m not mad at all actually. I just wish some people would understand that what they’re saying isn’t correct. I’ve made mistakes in the past too, but when I do, I’ll own up to them. Repeating the same misinformation over and over again does not make someone right.
I don’t do anything in WvW and didn’t even realize that our servers were competing. Maybe someday I’ll play that a little. PvP in any form really isn’t my thing.
Chimera…..thanks for the chuckle. :-)
I included the bolded section to specifically highlight that I knew this was a special case, however I think you are oversimplifying. Because gold can be bought with real world money, it does have a cash value.
If someone spends hundreds of pounds on gems to convert to gold, and Arena Net then take some of that gold away without telling them, then that is pretty off. I’m not saying Arena Net shouldn’t take the 15% (they should), but I see no reason at all to think that they shouldn’t be upfront about it just because we’re talking about a virtual service.
You still don’t understand.
Gold can NOT be bought directly with real money
Gems can be bought with real money. Gold can be bought with Gems at a conversion rate specific to the moment you convert your Gems into gold. That conversion rate changes constantly. Since there is no way to convert Gems to real money, gold has NO real money equivalent….it only has a perceived equivalent using the conversion rate at the specific moment you make the calculation. Therefore, the perceived equivalent of gold’s value in real money is constantly changing.
ArenaNet does NOT take a 15% of your real money when you convert Gems to gold. There are two DIFFERENT conversion rates depending on which direction you’re converting your Gems/gold. Those two rates are separated by a percentage.
If you look at the history graph for the conversion rates on GW2Spidy (http://www.gw2spidy.com/gem), you’ll notice that the lines get further apart as the values go up.
My guess to the reason behind having that hard percentage is to eliminate the immediate “flipping” of Gems to gold to Gems to keep that specific market being manipulated on a short timeline. I don’t work for ArenaNet, so I don’t know their reasoning behind a hard percentage difference between the two conversion rates.
It’s not deceptive. It’s not illegal. ALL of the information is listed RIGHT THERE on one screen….and it’s all right next to each other.
There is one crucial piece of information missing: That the projected profit doesn’t include all expenses. It leaves out the listing fee.
Profit is generally defined as income minus expenses. The listing fee is an expense. Therefore leaving it off makes the profit incorrect.If someone new to GW2 ran the math, they would see that the projected profit takes 10% off the sale price. They would see the 5% listing fee. A reasonable assumption to them is that the listing fee is included and that there is another 5% fee somewhere for a total of 10%. Then they sell some items and find that the total is actually 15%.
That is how the trading post is misleading.
Listing an item in the Trading Post can be easily compared to listing an item on eBay. When you list an item on eBay, they tell you up front how much it’s going to cost you to list that item and you have to pay it before they accept your listing….it gets paid by your credit card or PayPal account. If there’s not enough money in your account, they won’t let you list the item.
When you list an item on the Trading Post, the same thing happens. They tell you the listing fee and that money is taken out of your inventory before you can list the item. If you don’t have enough money in your inventory, it won’t let you list the item.
A similar situation occurs with the “Projected Profit”…..but eBay handles this differently because it’s an auction and not a fixed price. eBay can’t tell you up front how much you’re going to make after your sale because they can’t tell you how much it’s going to sell for. eBay tells you the percentage they’re going to take so that YOU can calculate how much you’ll make at the end.
ArenaNet has taken that calculation out of your hands and is kind enough to show you your “Projected Profit”. The reason they can do that is because they KNOW how much it’s going to sell for (if it sells)…..because that’s how much you’re listing it for.
It’s two completely separate transactions. Neither are misleading. They just take a bit of simple math to figure out if you want to know what “their cut” is. If you feel their cut is too high, too bad. The Trading Post is the only secure method to sell an item to another player.
To those saying “its just a game”, and “its just in game currency”, you do realise that money is technically “just pieces of paper”?
Because of the gem to gold conversion, gold has a real world cash value. People buy literally hundreds of dollars worth of gold, and that is then taken by ANet. The lack of a gold to gem to cash ability makes this significantly different to other situations, but to simply dismiss the value of something because it only exists virtually is fairly outdated thinking.
The section of your post that I highlighted in bold is the reason your logic is flawed.
There is only one thing in the cash shop that you can buy with real money: Gems
Those Gems can then be traded in for other things….including in-game gold, but in doing so, you must use the system put in place by the creators of the cash shop. That system includes a conversion rate that is fluid and constantly moving based on the number of Gems converted to gold and vice versa.
People don’t “buy literally hundreds of dollars worth of gold”. They buy hundreds of dollars worth of Gems, which they then CHOOSE to convert to gold using the conversion rate AT THE TIME they choose to make that conversion.
You CAN simply dismiss the dollar value of in-game gold because no conversion to turn in-game gold to dollars exists.
There is not now, nor I doubt there ever will be, a direct conversion of in-game gold to dollars because of the fluctuating gold to Gem conversion rate.
The difference you’re missing is the fact that one conversion rate is static, while the other is dynamic.
STATIC: Dollars to Gems
DYNAMIC: Gems to gold / gold to Gems
Real money always buys the same number of Gems (unless ArenaNet has a sale). Gems do NOT always buy the same amount of gold. Gold does NOT always buy the same amount of Gems.
I’ll say it one last time as simply as I can…..
Gold does NOT have a real world cash value because there is NO WAY to turn gold into real world money (without violating the terms and conditions set forth in the EULA). It has a perceived cash value which is in a state of continual fluctuation.
Hmm – I know about transmuting jewels from lower to higher rarity but I must be living under a rock. Transmuting mats like scales? How do I go about doing that (bracing myself for the deserved title “n00b”)?
This page has a LOT of good information about using the Mystic Forge to create new items. The link below starts you at the “Materials” section. It goes through recipes for transmuting “Commons” to the next tier….along with other successive tiers.
Are you people serious?
Grab a calculator. It’s simple math. If you can’t do simple math and SEE in an instant that the “Projected Profit” is 90% of the value you would get by multiplying the number of items you’re listing by the price you’re listing them at…..you shouldn’t be using the Trading Post.
It’s not deceptive. It’s not illegal. ALL of the information is listed RIGHT THERE on one screen….and it’s all right next to each other.
ArenaNet doesn’t need to tell us the percentages that they’re using, those are EASILY figured out with a calculator.
Also…..you realize this isn’t real money…..right? It’s virtual currency. For those that will make the argument that there is a conversion for in-game gold to real currency…..please don’t. You’re just going to look silly.
(edited by Charismatic Harm.9683)
All I see is….
“Boo hoo. Poor me.”
……over and over and over again.
What does it matter to you if someone can buy their Legendary from the TP? Does it matter to you because you chose to EQUIP yours instead of selling it and now you see how much money you could have made? Is it because you truly believe that it’s MORE “legendary” to have crafted this item than having bought it?
Who should be rewarded for crafting a Legendary….the owner or the crafter? Either way, the CRAFTER is being rewarded….either through being able to “show it off” or by receiving a great deal of money for it.
For those that will argue and quote a blog post by Arenanet, it makes NO DIFFERENCE who OWNS the Legendary. The person that crafted it HAD to accomplish a great many things in the game in order to acquire the pieces to craft it. Those crafters that chose to SELL theirs instead of equipping them CHOSE to allow someone else to have their “pretty shinies” shown off by another player in exchange for money. Good for them. That was THEIR choice!!!!!
ArenaNet has said a great many things. Some of them have been taken as misrepresentations. Some have been misunderstood. Some have shown they may take a different view of an original opinion.
ONE stands out to me though. ArenaNet has said from the beginning that they wanted the players to be able to play the way they want.
If one player chooses to make money to BUY a Legendary, rather than craft it….that’s their choice.
If one player chooses to craft a Legendary to EQUIP it…..that’s their choice.
If one player chooses to craft a Legendary to SELL it…..that’s their choice.
Who are we (you) to tell other players how to play a game that we (you) did not create. THAT is the job of ArenaNet.
Stop telling ArenaNet how to do their job and you do yours. Your job is to play the game. If you REALLY don’t like the way they do their job, stop playing the game.
I was trying this out today and it was so slow. The money I was making would easily be more if I was running dungeons. What’s recommended for the fastest money making? I think the problem is that the initial investment is too low. What kind of stuff should I flip when I have around 10g?
The problem that I find with your question is “fastest money making”.
Why does everyone seem to only care about getting from 0g to 100g….or 1000g in a matter of days? It takes patience, time….AND effort to get there. If you want to farm your way there because that’s what’s most comfortable to you….then farm away. I farmed my BUTT off in GW1. That’s how I spent a majority of my time….and all I ever did was eek by. I decided to take a different approach to making money in GW2.
I started with 5g that I borrowed from a guildmate to get where I am today. I’ve spent about a month, maybe 6 weeks, developing a tool that I can use over and over and over again to make money. Every day that I want to trade and make money in GW2, I use this tool. It shows me EXACTLY what I should buy to make a 50%. That 50% profit includes my initial investment, the listing fees and the sales fee. So…for every 1g I put in, I get 1.5g out. There are LOTS of other things that I’m NOT investing in that could yield me 25%-40% profit margins, but right now, I don’t care about those. I can’t buy enough of the things that make me 50% profit margins fast enough. I put EVERY copper I have into buying the 50% profit margin stuff and every order I place is filled by the next day.
Like I said, it’s taken me about 6 weeks, with a 5g investment, to get in the neighborhood of 130g. You know what? I’m ECSTATIC about that because the work I put into creating the tool will NEVER have to be done again. I can continue to use this tool for the life of the game…..and STILL be able to make money. I don’t want to farm again. I put the work in up front so I wouldn’t have to work the entire time I play GW2.
I’ll give you my specific example:
Investment: 5g
Day 1: Buy 5g worth of stuff
Day 2: Pick up stuff and sell
Day 3: Pick up 6.5g / Buy 6.5g worth of stuff
Day 4: Pick up stuff and sell
Day 5: Pick up 69.75g / Buy 9.75g worth of stuff
Day 6: Pick up stuff and sell
Day 7: Pick up 14.63g / Buy 14.63g worth of stuff
Day 8: Pick up stuff and sell
Day 9: Pick up 22g / Buy 22g worth of stuff
Day 10: Pick up stuff and sell
Day 11: Pick up 33g / Buy 33g worth of stuff
Day 12: Pick up stuff and sell
Day 13: Pick up 49g / Buy 49g worth of stuff
Day 14: Pick up stuff and sell
Day 15: Pick up 74g / Buy 74g worth of stuff
etc.
etc.
etc.
The secret is compounding your investment. Find something you can GUARANTEE that you can make a good profit on. THIS is guarantee is where the tool you create comes in. The reason that I really only work in the 50% profit margin range is that I’ve found that, while the market does swing, it doesn’t swing far enough in the matter of a couple of days for me to lose my shirt. This WORST that will happen is I break even and all that’s happened at that point is that I’ve lost a little bit of time trading.
My advice: Put in the work on the front end and reap the rewards for YEARS….otherwise you’ll be farming forever.
I do look at what I have, and what I have at the moment is a lot of wasted time that I could have spent with my friends instead of farming pixels. So yes, it is sad. It’s sad that I would sit there and farm it at all, and perhaps I should look at my priorities.
Unfortunately not a few days ago I got another sale for this game, so I will most likely go through the story with that person, and then be on my way.
You do realize that nothing has changed since you acquired your Legendary….right? You chose to equip it because you worked so hard to get it. You could have chosen to put it up on the Trading Post for someone else to buy, but you didn’t. Now that someone else has, you have “Grinders Remorse”?
I think you’re right. You should look at your priorities.
1 Copper is a random prize.
And the award for the least helpful post (besides this one) goes to…….
(drumroll)
King Jon.3128
Congratulations!!!! You win absolutely nothing but the respect and admiration of the entire Guild Wars 2 Forum Community!!!!!!!!!!
/sarcasm
Do the items you’re trying to sell reside in an invisible bag in your inventory?
Items in invisible bags do not show up in the BLTC window or the Vendor window.
I see a LOT of great ways to make money on the Trading Post. Most of you actually KNOW what you’re doing….and seem to be playing in different markets.
As Nash and Mystic have stated…..
Sometimes making a little bit of profit a LOT of times is better than making a LOT of profit once.
With Mystics example, they’ve found a market where the sell price is much greater than cost to craft the item. They list is much lower than the sell price. Someone else sees that item and decides to “flip” it. They sacrifice profit to get the money now and let someone else work to get the higher profit. I saw this ALL the time in GW1. SO many people trying to eek out that higher price, standing in town all day long waiting to sell…..I’d hop in, undercut the crap out of them, sell my stuff and bolt…..most times, I was selling to the other person selling, lol.
I’m a high volume trader and I DO think twice about undercutting someone after they’ve done a big markdown in order to sell faster. Since it’s highly unlikely I’m the only one that does so, marking items down by more than 1c is obviously effective at what it is meant to do.
If I have something to sell and I see stuff up at 2s, with people buying at 1.5s, then one guy selling some small amount of stuff at 1.8s, I’m not undercutting the 1.8s guy. I’ll just put mine up at 1.99s and let his clear.
THIS…..is exactly what smart sellers do. They do their research and make every attempt not to let potential manipulators impact their profits. This even comes into play if you’re matching the lowest seller. When I see that 1 seller has 1 item listed at the lowest sell price, it raises a red flag for me, so I check out the full list of sales. If there are a dozen listings for 1 item, I’ll actually list mine for where the “real” break seems to be. I’m fine letting 12 items sell before the items I’m listing. That means that I’m making more money. This, too, is a risk though. If other sellers DON’T pay attention to how much they’re selling their items for, I could list a bunch of mine at a much higher price than what that other seller is selling his/her “bunch” of items.
To sum up…..smart sellers actually pay attention. :-)
A Sunrise sold for 2400g today, so it looks fair price.
With something like Sunrise selling so quickly, even at 2400g, that would tell me that it was actually underpriced.
@JSmooth:
The only fee that someone trying to temporarily manipulate the market needs to take into account is the 5% listing fee….at least in my example above. That player doesn’t intend to actually SELL the item, they only want to LIST it so that people will undercut him.
Once he gets the number of undercutters he wants, he’ll pull his listing and BUY!!!
I wonder how many people will try doing this now….and how many of those people will come back complaining about how they lost all their money.
The theory I described above CAN work, but it involves risk and analysis. If anyone tries doing it without understanding the risk, or without doing the research, don’t be surprised if you lose your shirt.
You may want to consider the possible motivation of the player that’s doing the undercutting…..
SOME players undercut so that they can sell their goods quickly. These are the 1c undercutters in most cases.
SOME players are trying to manipulate the market. These players are taking huge risks, hoping to reap HUGE rewards.
SOME players want to drop the price temporarily so that they can BUY more items at a lower price, then resell them. As stated above, when selling in the trade window, you only see what the lowest price is, so unless the player trying to sell something researches whether that’s a good selling point, they may just undercut the current sale price. So, in the example of the guy that undercut you by 20s, what has he done? He has set up a price point for people to undercut him. That may be EXACTLY what he wants. He may have calculated that that large of a price differential was worth him paying the 5% listing fee so that he can get “suckers” to undercut him. Once he has a few people undercutting him, he’ll pull his order, then buy all of the lower priced stuff. What essentially happens is a false temporary floor gets put in trying to lure in the undercutters that just want to list their items quickly to get them sold. He succeeds. People undercut him, then he reaps the rewards by buying up the stock lower than his price and relisting it at a higher price.
It’s actually a pretty brilliant strategy. Don’t assume this player that undercut you by 20s didn’t calculate that exact number to achieve his end goal.
This is probably your best bet as to what is inside a Black Lion Chest. I seriously doubt an ArenaNet representative is going to come onto the forums and tell you what is inside of it. They have a great deal more important things to discuss.
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest
If you scroll down to the bottom of the page, there’s a link to the Drop Research that will not only give you items that come out, but also the likelihood you will get them.
I hope you find what you’re looking for.
This case was not that much of an “exploit” as an unintended market rebalance that happened suddenly and some players were able to profit of.
Everyone can keep going round and round as to whether or not this was or wasn’t an exploit, but a representative from ArenaNet said that it WAS an exploit. So, guess what?
It’s an exploit. No further debate necessary on “how bad” of an exploit it was. It was an exploit…..plain and simple.
The question I have is whether or not they will DO anything about it other than disabling the recipe, which they’ve already done.
This may not completely solve your issue, but it’s something I stumbled upon the other day while crafting….
If I understand correctly, you have the Crafting window open and the BLTP window open. You’re looking at a recipe in the Crafting window, you see that you don’t have any, or a lower amount than you need, of one or more of the components, so you type into the search window of the BLTP window to see how much it will cost to get more. If this is the problem, I have a solution that requires ZERO searching or typing into the BLTP window…..
In your crafting window, with the recipe active, right click on the item in question. You should get a “Buy more at Trading Post” option. Click that and you’re there.
I hope this helps.
Actually, my argument is accurate given that the OP stated he would be buying the gems with real money, not in-game gold.
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