Guild Wars 2

@munkiman

So….what you’re saying is….due to the unrealistic expectations of some of the player base regarding the costs (price and time) of a Legendary, or any pretty shiny, the game developer should fix the prices, methods, or time required to acquire the item so they are easier for everyone to get?

@munkiman

I don’t want to quote your entire post because this thread has started turning into a wall of text the way it is, lol.

In regards to the “quest for a Legendary”….

You may or may not remember, but ArenaNet stated that this quest should be considered a “long term goal”. GW2 has only been out for 8 months. 8 months, for a game that expects to have a longevity equal to or greater than its predecessor, is NOTHING. It’s a blip.

The issues isn’t that players shouldn’t have the goal of acquiring a Legendary, but lies in the perceived time it should take to achieve that goal. People see the shiny, they want it, so they start picking the things off the list that are easiest / least expensive to acquire. That sounds like a solid plan, but in reality, the quest for a Legendary is meant to be something you achieve while you do other things and the tasks required for creation (WvW, dungeons, etc.) are meant to get you to experience other areas of the game rather than farming your tail off.

If you were to approach the quest for a Legendary by gathering everything you need as you play the various content GW2 provides, at the point which a precursor drops (it doesn’t even matter which one, because you could then sell it and buy the one you want in most cases), you will probably have most, if not all, of the other materials you need to craft one. If you’re short a few items, that’s where the Trading Post comes in.

Players are approaching it with the mindset that all of the pieces should be equally as easy to achieve….but they’re not. So, when they blow through the content, farm their tails off, buy up everything they need from the Trading Post and are left with the single most expensive piece left…..they complain. The only reason they’ve done it that way is because the other things were easier or less expensive to accumulate. How would those players feel if they’d have gotten the precursor first instead of last? Basically grind to START your Legendary rather than grind to finish it.

I’m approaching my Legendary the way it was intended….gathering up the bits as I play, then when it comes to the end, I’ll either have gotten my precursor through a drop, or I should have enough to buy it off the Trading Post. Players need some serious money management training as well. You can’t blow your money on every pretty shiny you see, then complain that you can’t have them all.

Boolet.2968:

Regarding the TP… For months now I’ve been asking myself why items purchased aren’t account-bound to prevent “flipping” (Trading Post Manipulation for profit)

If you think about what would happen where this to be the case, you’d see why it shouldn’t be done this way. Every item on the Trading Post would eventually reach the point where they are 1c over Vendor Value….except for the really low supply items, like Precursors. While this may sound like a great idea in theory, what actually happens is that you’d make more money selling things to the Vendor due to the TP fees than you would selling them on the TP. So….when supply runs low, or runs out, the only place you’ll be able to get ANYTHING you want will be out in the world. If your goal is to save up for a Precursor, how quickly do you think you could do that if you sold everything off to the Vendor. At least with the TP, the LOWEST amount of money you should be getting back from any item is the Vendor Value.

Boolet.2968:

Additionally, why on earth Legendaries are tradeable. The majority of components required aren’t, and they were touted as items to “display players mastery of the game”… Which currently just shows how well you can exploit the trading post.

I actually agree with this statement. Personally, if something that is crafted requires Account Bound materials, then the resultant item should also be Account Bound.

munkiman.3068:

Would anyone think that the cost of a pre should take the average person almost 2 years to get? Now remember this is just the precursor weapon, not the legendary.

That doesn’t sound unreasonable to me because during the average players quest for a Legendary, they’re going to need to run some dungeons, play WvW, do map completion, and several other things, which in the long run should get them the other things they need to craft their Legendary.

munkiman.3068:

How about say a visions of the mist, a much more reasonable goal at a about 100-150 days?

Again….this doesn’t sound too far off to me.

munkiman.3068:

I’m pretty much saying the average player guild wars 2 caters to is going to look at that and say “no way”. Once they played to the game to the point they are satisfied the “end game” content the shiny stuff, is just so far out of reach, that it completely discourages continuing. I think that is the crux of what I see.

Then the goals of these average players outstretch what they are actually able to accomplish. Setting lofty goals is not a bad thing….but setting goals so far out of your reach versus the time you’re willing to spend trying to achieve them is.

Having your eye on “the highest prize(s)” in the game does not automatically give a player the right to “have it”. They’re going to have to work for it. These things we’re talking about aren’t for the faint of heart. They’re for the most dedicated of players. Also, just because other players have it, that doesn’t mean everyone should have it….no matter their method of acquiring it.

Essence Snow.3194:

That’s something that I’ve been struggling with. I’ve tinkered with the idea of progressive taxes associated with using the tp, but it’s only a glimpse of a thought atm.

Are you suggesting a system with an ever increasing, permanent diminishing return?

Basically….the more money you have going through your account via the Trading Post, the more you would pay in fees? Or…would it be based on volume of items….pure traffic? Would it be a limit of either items or gold you could trade in a period of time before being taxed a higher amount?

I’m interested to hear your ideas on this…..most ideas I’ve heard deal with taxing the rich more solely because they’re rich…..which is a ridiculous notion in and of itself. Just because someone has money, that doesn’t mean they should be punished for it.

Edit: These questions may pull this thread off topic….but it’s my thread and I’ll do with it as I please, lol. If it veers off too much, we’ll bring it back to the topic at hand.

I’m not sure if it’s a bug, or an intentional change, but no matter what item you’re looking at, you can only see the lowest 20 prices for that item. No matter how many are listed at how many different prices, you will ONLY see the lowest 20.

It wasn’t in any of the patch notes, nor have I seen a dev comment on it, but this has been brought up in multiple threads.

I was really hoping for….

“…..is a lie.”

I’m actually a sad panda now. :-(

munkiman.3068:

…….making many of the seemingly illogical account bound items on acquire……..

I would love for them to look into this as well. Some of the items that Account, or Soul Bound are just silly….while other items that aren’t, should be.

Low level items such as harvesting tools and salvage kits…..there’s no reason those should Account Bound…unless the reason is they don’t want players purchasing them with Karma, then selling them for “gold”. If that’s the case….just make them untradeable on the TP, but allow them to be transferred via the mail system.

Also, things that require Account Bound items to create should end up being Account Bound once created…..I’m looking at YOU Mr. Legendary Weapon!!!!

Even if those things were addressed…..they still wouldn’t have much of an impact on the items we’re discussing….and in actuality, might even make precursor prices rise in “value”. Without the option to buy the Legendary, that forces people to buy their precursor, get lucky with a drop, or get lucky with RNG from the Mystic Forge. That seems to be the way it is right now…but there is a slight, yet significant difference. At that point, the look of that Legendary can ONLY be crafted by your own skills. With this, we would also see a rise in prices of crafting materials as people will be “forced” to also level their crafting disciplines in order to craft their weapon.

Essence Snow.3194:

I think it is a qualitative assumption in that most activities in the game simply do not have high enough profit potential to support such prices. The observable impact certain activities have on them is apparent via the ability those activities have to support certain prices.

ex) the activity of farming meta events does not have the ability to sustain the high prices
the activity of cof p1 grinding has the ability to sustain the high prices

What would the solution be though? Would it be to raise everything up to the profit potential of CoF P1…..or bring CoF P1 down to the profit potential of the other types of content?

I don’t think there’s anything they could do to the TP to change the profit potential there….not so long as it remains global, has player controlled pricing and nearly everyone uses it to buy and/or sell their goods.

The easiest option for ArenaNet would be to “nerf” CoF P1. That will just bring a different portion of the content to the surface where people would complain not only about the CoF nerf, but also the profit potential of the other content.

Anet is changing the game slowly…thankfully. It’s when game companies make big sweeping changes to large portions of the content when things get broken in a hurry. I’m sure they have their eye on CoF P1 right now and are deciding how best to “deal with that situation”.

I don’t think ArenaNet is forcibly funneling players into one type of content over another. The players are funneling themselves into certain content based on their own choices regarding their goals and the content they are best at playing.

Some players prefer the TP to make money. They prefer that method because they have the mindset for it. They are good with numbers and analysis and have the dedication required to find profitable markets within the TP. I see a lot of players point the finger at TP players with the assumption that it’s “easy” to make money using it. While money can be made there….it’s not nearly as easy as many people think it is. I like this type of content for making money….because my skillset allows me to do it.

Some players like playing dungeons. There are players that work day in and day out finding the most efficient path to make the most money per hour. Many players group together with like goals and run together. This is more “community accepted” form of money generation because it’s playing a portion of the content, that in other games like WoW, is considered to be “end-game” content. Personally….I HATE dungeons….and the thought of grinding content repeatedly gives me a headache. That’s MY choice though. Honestly…right now….CoF P1 is probably more profitable to those players than the TP is to me.

Still other players enjoy chaining DE’s. That’s a great way to earn currency as well….depending on your goals. Karma generation is HUGE in DE’s. If your goal is outfitting your characters in Exotics….Karma is a REALLY good option. If you’re goal is a Legendary…..Karma generation will ease the acquisition of certain parts of your Legendary, but probably won’t net you the entire thing.

There are lots of ways to play the game and depending on the goals of the player, that may or may not funnel them into certain types of content. There’s no way that ArenaNet could balance every different type of content so that they’re all equal in terms of acquiring any given “end game item”. The reason they can’t do it is because not everyone’s idea of what constitutes an “end game goal” is the same….nor does everyone play with an equal amount of dedication.

I still feel that the core of the issue lies with the player…..not the game. That won’t change either. It’s going to be like this forever…..and possibly only get worse as time goes on.

Pandemoniac.4739:

When desirable items are rare, they are expensive. There’s absolutely no way around that. If you make it easier for players to earn gold, the rare desirable things will just get more expensive. If you make them less rare, then the folks that enjoy expending the effort to get the rare things won’t have anything to work toward and the game will get a lot less fun for them.

This brings us full circle to….“There’s nothing ArenaNet can do about it.”

I say this because right now, Anet has players threatening to leave the game because certain things are too difficult to obtain. On the other hand, I’m sure a LOT of people WOULD leave the game if Anet made these items too easy to obtain.

I’m sure they’ll take the “threat” of players leaving the game over players ACTUALLY leaving the game anytime.

munkiman.3068:

Interesting, what’s wrong with it? It’s a game, the goal of anet was in fact to enjoy the game, but look at this forum section alone. How many posts are about the money? Or how screwy the economy is? Is it anets goal to have a community of poor players? Sure seems that way.

The point of those threads are NOT about money in general. Those threads are about the money it costs to buy the prettiest shinies in the game….the luxury items. They never talk about not being able to afford WP travel, repair costs, or things like that. If they did, then I might incline to agree with you that the money generated by playing the game normally is out of whack. It’s not though. A player can earn MORE than enough money to fund day-to-day costs. When those same players play recklessly and die a lot causing higher repair costs, or travel around using WP’s to chase event chains…..they’re simply not spending their money wisely. That too is not a fault of the economy or the developer. That is the fault of the player.

Edit: After posting, I noticed you replied to a post of mine, but everything I stated above also applies to your reply.

While I appreciate your show of appreciation to the Developers….and a specific developer at that…..the title of this thread does violate the Forum Guidelines for posting by using their name in your subject line.

I’m not going to report the thread so that you have the opportunity to change the title because I feel this praise is definitely deserved.

Change the title before a moderator either deletes the thread or changes it for you.

Pandemoniac.4739:

The problem isn’t that players can’t earn gold fast enough. The problem is that the majority of players don’t know how to manage the gold they do earn.

This is an EXCELLENT point!!!!

Part of earning money is not spending it the second you earn it. If more players would put their purchases on hold for the time being, they’d see their bankrolls expanding to a point where they probably COULD afford one or two of the pretty shinies they want. Will they get everything they want? Probably not. SHOULD they get everything they want? Again….probably not. They WILL get everything they need, some things they want, and with diligent saving….a few of the things they covet most.

Vol.5241:

So what do you recommend – all players, casual or hardcore deserve a fixed g/h?

No matter what Arenanet does…hardcore people will always come out on top, as it should be. That’s just the nature of games.

This is exactly my point. There is nothing for ArenaNet TO do. The problem is with the players, not the developer.

Anet has made a choice to remove grind in one aspect of the game in order to put players on a more level playing field. You don’t have to grind for stats to play the game. Exotics are PLENTY to get you through the vast majority of the game with little to no problem. If you want to make it a little easier, you can grind a little to get the Ascended accessories, but they really aren’t necessary.

The grind they’ve added to the game is purely cosmetic: Named Exotics, Precursors, Legendary Weapons, RNG Armor / Weapon Skins. With this comes the problem we see now though. Players want those things, but they’re expensive. What they don’t seem to understand is that it truly is the “lesser of two evils”. What if we had to grind for stats, or stats AND skins? The volume of complaints would be even more ridiculous than it is now.

Nothing ArenaNet does will cull the complaints. Players say they want Anet to make the skins easier to get, but with that comes less rarity, and thereby, less individuality….something players crave.

I realize that not all players are the same and there’s nothing anyone can do about that. Some will grind 10 hours a day to achieve their goals, then move on to the next one when they do. Some players log in a couple of hours a week. The issue is that those different types of players are not meant to have the same things. The harder you work, the more you should be able to achieve.

Players want what they want and will complain if they can’t / don’t get it. It’s just human nature.

I wish there was a solution that could allow everyone to get what they want, no matter what that is, but I don’t see one and none of the suggestions I’ve seen made by other players would work either.

A message to gamers (not directed at anyone specifically even though I quoted Vol in my post):
If you’re playing a video game and it’s not fun while you’re trying to achieve your goals, perhaps new goals, or a different game should be what you look at. Also, it’s a good idea to look beyond your own goals to the overall health of the video game you’re playing. Just because you’re not getting what you want doesn’t mean the game is broken.

munkiman.3068:

Orr farms and Plinx for both karma and money are still quite profitable, although i haven’t run them in a long time. But you’re all correct in as much as the cost of these weapons far overcome the even higher than average income of the player base. What we have in GW2 is similar to what’s going on in American economics, there are just too many poor players and very few middle wealth players. I still don’t doubt the high wealth players to be either extremely lucky (won the lotto) or extremely well versed in trading practices. The ones that actually “labor” basically have a tough time, financially. It’s pretty much a world problem and it’s very similar in this game.

There are always going to be “haves” and “have nots” in any game….and life. The correlation you made is SO very true.

The rich are able to make more money than the poor because they have a larger bankroll to play with and can sustain losses with higher risk trades. They can do this because they can afford to lose a little money here and there and not greatly affect them. The opposite is true for the poor. They have a difficult time making money because they can’t afford to invest much and definitely can’t sustain a loss.

Many of these poor people (players) look to the government (ArenaNet) for assistance rather than working harder to make a better life for themselves. Pointing fingers at the rich solely because they’re rich just shows lack of integrity.

Few people (players) are willing to work for the things they want and expect those things to be given to them simply because they exist. It’s a sad situation we’re in.

Esplen.3940:

Your Bauble count goes up when you pick them up.

Oh, you’re thinking of the cake boxes, they restore health.

…..but only if your health isn’t already full. If you walk through it with full health, it does nothing and stays on the ground.

Essence Snow.3194:

Edit..anywho I fear that I have unintentionally derailed the thread. Since I have recognized this I will end my part of this path here.

I wouldn’t say the thread has been derailed….just diverted. This information is a contributing factor to the reason precursor and Legendary prices are “so high”. So, imo, I think this data is also a valid part of the discussion.

I agree with some of the posters above when they state that just because CoF P1 is the “gate” right now….that doesn’t mean it always is. Farming in general is someone players do in ALL MMO’s. Game designers know this. Players want gold and they’re willing to run the same thing over and over again to make money. If some other farming spot is “released to the community”, then players will flock there in droves. The smart farmers (like the smart TP players), keep their profitable farming spots to themselves and only leave once more and more players figure it out. At that point, they’ll move on and look for a new spot. Right now, that spot is CoF P1. Even though everyone and their dog is doing it…..it’s still profitable.

So….what happens when Anet nerfs CoF? The smart farmers will find a new spot and the “entitled” will complain that Anet “nerfed the only good farming spot”.

I feel the problem isn’t really that players can’t make money….it’s that they can’t make money easy enough. These items they want are expensive….and they should be. Players need to look for their own niche….but most are FAR too lazy for that. They’re sheep…or lemmings…or whatever. They search online for something that someone else already put the work into, then run it as long as they can, then complain when it gets nerfed.

In GW1, I always found it SO much more rewarding to find my own spot to farm. I remember when feathers were 10k / stack. Everyone was farming feathers in GW:EN, yet completely overlooked the fact that right outside D’Alessio Seaboard was a FLOCK of Tengu, that when farmed in Hard Mode, would yield around 2 stacks of feathers every 15 minutes. They farmed in GW:EN because that’s where everyone else was farming. If they would have looked at the enemies that dropped feathers, then found those enemies on the map….they would have been much better off. I think the same might be said for CoF P1, but I don’t know since I don’t do that farm.

My point is, where is the profit coming from? Is it the coin drops? Is it the material drops? Is it the item drops? Depending on where it’s coming from, I’m sure there’s another place in the giant world of Tyria that’s equally, or more, profitable.

Josh Foreman.8250:

http://scrybe.deviantart.com/gallery/

IMPRESSIVE!!!!!

(Think Mortal Kombat when saying that in your head) :-)

munkiman.3068:

There are a vast majority of people that might get a pre (if they don’t want it) and sell it to the highest buy order. So the actual supply you won’t see. It could very well be a fairly small part of the total population that is dictating these prices. That’s not really a conspiracy theory, it’s more of a general concept, since we can’t really see what is moving through the TP. If i get a pre i didn’t want (like dusk or dawn) I’d pretty much sell it to the highest bidder and get the cash instead of sit on it undercutting the highest seller. Basically, it’s just too much G to list at those prices for most people.

I would probably do something similar if I was to come across an unwanted precursor. I most likely wouldn’t sell it to the highest bidder, but I wouldn’t undercut the lowest seller by 1c either. I would probably list it at the average value between the two.

That way, I’d make a little more money and someone could pick up a precursor at a “deal”. In that situation, I think it’s a win / win. While I wouldn’t be maximizing the amount of money I’d be making, I would reduce MY risk of being undercut and I could put that money to better use in other ways.

Ursan.7846:

Well, the biggest problem you already stated in your OP. That sell/buy listings =/= sell/buy orders.

You have many examples of items whose prices don’t quite match up to their sell/buy listing ratios.

Then you have your conclusion, which…is pretty obvious. I suppose not as obvious to those who don’t understand the concept of supply/demand.

Though I’d argue that the the main complaint isn’t WHY prices are high but that they SHOULDN’T be high. Many arguments all stem from this basic complaint.

1. Prices are high because manipulators. Prices are hence unnatural, unfair.
2. Prices are high because TP players. TP players not “legit,” prices are hence unfair.
3. Prices are high because item is too rare. Prices impossible to attain, unfair.

Which then spawns the discussion of whether the existence of such “luxury” goods in the game is good or not?

I believe the answer to that is yes. It is good for the game to make select rewards incredibly hard to attain, especially when these rewards have absolutely zero affect on the actual gameplay. But ah, that is an entirely independent topic from this one.

You make some excellent points….especially in regards to where the basis of the complaints come from.

In my opinion, the complaints are coming from a sense of entitlement. I see quotes from the manifesto, posts made by the Devs, or any other information the complainers can gather to twist the way they want it, but the essence of the complaints boils down to….“I want my shiny, but I can’t afford it, so the system must be broken.”

While that may be their opinion….and everyone has one…..that doesn’t make it true.

The “data” I provided in my OP is flawed in MANY respects. It is not 100% accurate, but it’s the best data I could find….and it’s the ONLY data available. Even without 100% accuracy, that doesn’t mean that nothing can be learned from it. The basic premise behind what I see in that data is that the precursors / Legendaries that many people want are the ones that also carry with them the highest prices. In relation to that, the precursors / Legendaries that people don’t want are “cheap” in comparison.

Even without the buy order numbers, that assumption could be determined just by reading the forums. The complaint threads usually talk about only a few of the precursors….the expensive ones. When one of the cheap ones is tossed into the discussion, those people are told to go away….but their posts contain value. That value is that it’s the desired precursor / Legendary that’s expensive….not ALL precursors / Legendaries as is being claimed. It’s these claims that can somewhat be refuted by gathering the data we can and presenting it. That’s what I tried to do.

Personally….I found it interesting to see the numbers and what I took away from it is that it’s probably not a problem with the system….but rather with the players that want the precursors / Legendaries themselves.

Vol.5241:

Why should people who have not touched the game in 2 months be punished?

It was only an idea. I don’t think all of my ideas are “pure gold” or anything. I didn’t even consider it as a punishment…..but if someone hasn’t played in 2 months….why would many of them care if their items are removed and auctioned off?

Perhaps as another measure besides the in game message, they could send an e-mail to every GW2 account holder. That way, you have the chance to remove your item, lose the 5% listing fee (which probably doesn’t matter at a point 2 months after you listed it) and keep your item.

If the player doesn’t care about GW2 or they items they listed on the TP 2 months ago….they’d just let the items go.

Svarty.8019:

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

mage.3570:

0 keys, 0 tickets, and am proud of myself.

I wish there were more like us

There are

I’m sure there are LOTS of us out there….

Rakuren Kenshou.7689:

Or do a Storage Wars kind of thing.

Take any “sell orders” that have been sitting there for more than a month and auction them off to the highest bidders. Trick is, you don’t tell them what they are bidding on. Just tell them the item type.

Hmmmm…..interesting.

Anet could make a post in game telling people that items that have been listed for sale in the Trading Post for more than 2 months will be pulled and players will be compensated for 10% of the value listed. If players want to keep their items, they would need to take the listing down before the deadline.

Then….all of those items can be “bagged up” and auctioned off. A bag could contain 25 or so items. Don’t tell players what’s in them…..but each day (or hour, or two hours….depending on the number of items taken off the TP), a new “bag” goes up on the Trading Post for people to bid on…..highest bid wins the bag. This could go on for an entire month.

The great thing about something like this is that a TON of items would be removed from the Trading Post, people could end up getting some AMAZING deals….and ALL of the gold used to buy these “bags” would be removed from the system (minus the 10% that went to the original seller as “compensation”.)

I’m sure it would cause some heartburn throughout the community as many people would overbid on a mystery bag and get something like 25 Copper Ore…..but it’s a risk….you could also end up with an Eternity…..

MisterEction.9382:

I thought this was about that skill point thing where the shark would come up and stick on the rocks…

Hehehehe. That SP was bugged for me for a while too. Kinda funny seeing a true Land Shark.

I think it could be great for the normal player…..but I feel it could be detrimental to the game economy because I fear it would open it up to bots / gold sellers figuring out a way to automate trades better than they do now.

If you didn’t need the game session ID or the game client running, something like this could end up destroying the economy.

Who knows though? Personally…..I would love to be able to monitor trades offline and make adjustments to buy orders and sell listings while away from my home PC.

Legendaries aren’t meant for the majority of players. They’re meant for a minority of players. They’re meant to be rare.

So, it stands to reason that only a minority of players SHOULD be able to afford them and as you pointed out, those players are currently the ones playing the TP and running CoF P1 mindlessly all day long.

That’s NOT to say that people in the majority of the player base CAN’T get a Legendary. They can…..it’s just going to take longer…..as it should.

I see players pointing fingers at the Trading Post with the assumption that it’s easy to make money using it. There are TIMES when it’s easy to make money, but overall, it takes dedication, skill, intuition and risk to make real profits. It’s not as easy as everyone thinks it is.

Where some people are good at farming….others are good at playing the Trading Post. Both are viable means of acquiring wealth….but both are not equally as accepted.

I like playing on the Trading Post to make money. I don’t do it full time because I bought this game to have fun….not sit watching a ticker all day…..or mindlessly farm. I’m a VERY small fish in an ENORMOUS ocean….but there’s room for me.

To me, it seems as if there is a “mindset” issue, not a game issue. Personally, I am of the mindset that if I want something, I know I’m going to need to work for it to achieve it. Others are of the mindset that since they bought the game, they should have equal access to everything in it no matter how hard they work….basically a sense of entitlement. Every player fits somewhere between having to work so hard to get something that it becomes more like a job than fun and “give it to me because I bought the game”. It’s the people at the extremes that we hear complain most often. Perhaps instead of complaining, they need to adjust their mindset. My 2c.

Essence Snow.3194:

I guess my word choice was off. What I was trying to get across is basically what you just said. That most of the “demand” listed by Spidy is not realistic……ie all the buy orders under such amount are likely to nvr to be filled and those with the oders have that knowledge. They seem to be more of a way to bank cash (sorta like the lemon of ol), then legitimate “demand”.

For instance, I just now almost doubled the “demand” for The Colossus from 376 to 626. Do I expect my order of 250 Colossus to ever be filled?…no…I have risked nothing as I can retrieve everything invested at whim.

Basically what I am trying to get at is that the “demand” numbers from Spidy mean nada.

Those 250 buy orders that you placed aren’t completely worthless though…..unless you don’t actually want them at that price. Are they unrealistic as to whether or not you’ll get them…..yes, definitely….and that’s because the player base has currently dictated the price to be MUCH higher.

We can’t use Spidy data to gather any hard and fast rules about supply and demand….that’s a given. What we can do is use the data we have available to us to determine trends or get a “warm fuzzy” about the current pricing metrics.

There isn’t any data on supply or demand. Even ArenaNet doesn’t have data on that. They have transaction data….the number of processed transactions and the price at which those transactions occurred. THAT data could give us a clear idea of how the community “feels” about the current pricing of the precursors. If people are buying them at the current price, the community must be fine with it.

More people would want to buy them if the price was lower. Fewer people would want to buy them if the price was higher. That’s how demand works. The supply is a completely different animal. That is completely controlled by ArenaNet…..whether through drop rates in the world, or through the Mystic Toilet.

Players want more precursors to be made available in the world because they want to make their Legendary weapons, but what would happen if Anet just gave in and made the world start raining precursors? Those precursors, and buy extension, their Legendaries, would become commonplace. An item that is commonplace is no longer rare and no longer coveted by the player base.

The point is…..even though the prices of certain precursors are well outside of many peoples reach, it’s meant to be that way and has been dictated as such by both ArenaNet with the drop rates and the community with the current prices on the Trading Post.

Legendaries are not meant to be items that everyone has. They’re meant to be rare. Players complain that they want one….or that RNG doesn’t favor them….or that other people are “lucky”, or undeserved. Players want to stand out….and rightly so, but increasing the drop rates of precursors won’t accomplish that goal. Players want what they want, but can’t see how what they want would actually negatively impact their “goal”.

Essence Snow.3194:

How many of the buy orders are within reason? What is considered reasonable?

For instance take Dusk atm there are 14 buy orders above 410g. According to Spidy there are 14 available with “demand” of 5021. So that means that the vast majority of the “demand” is not exactly realistic. Wouldn’t any buy order, even ones at 1 copper, count towards Spidy’s “demand” of 5021?

I think a more accurate picture of the “demand” would need to take into account reason.

Reason is part of the issue with the complaints about precursors though. I don’t know how many threads I’ve seen with players wanting the price of precursors in the 50g range and anything above that is “price gouging” or “manipulation”. 50g for a highly desired precursor / Legendary seems UNreasonable to me….as do the complaints about the current pricing of them. The data I gathered really only shows a trend of price vs. “want”. The higher priced ones are “wanted” more….and are the ones people complain most about their pricing. The lower priced ones are “wanted” less….and we never hear a peep about them.

I fully understand that the buy orders from Spidy cannot be equated directly to demand, nor can sell listings be equated directly to supply….but that can give us an idea of the general “want” by the community and the “availability” of these items in the game.

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

Astraea.6075:

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

You lost the goal of my post. I wasn’t suggesting a better way to know market movements. I was explaining what “price written on stone” means.

This is what we need. Names of buyer and seller, and price written on stone, discussed and decided by the community, not surely by “the famous richest”

What you seem to fail to understand is that prices are decided by the community. Items sell for a price that both sellers and buyers are willing to conclude a transaction at.

If I try to list an item for double the price that someone is willing to pay, then I won’t sell the item and will have forfeited my listing fee. Conversely, if I put in buy orders at a price no one is willing to sell at, then they will never be filled. Remember, the other participants in the marketplace provide competition for people who wish to engage in excessive price-gouging. With names, I could enlist my competitors to help me keep prices high for our mutual benefit.

Price is not decided by any community. I can log now, buy the last 5 precursors and resell them for double/triple, right now. And it will be undercut a spit maybe attempting to steal my customers. I just buy again his weapons, keeping my price. Tell me again it’s a community decided price.

But if you make a “rare” item more common, via adjustments to the drop mechanics of Dragon Chests or from RNG of the Forge, then these items wouldn’t be rare anymore.

The underlying problem isn’t the TP or the people who use the TP to sell their goods. It’s the people who really want said rare item, but can’t afford it, so they complain or yell “manipulator” at every corner.

Adjustment must be made with both side helping: the community discuss prices. Anet read and actively do real time something.

I can convinve this community to do his part. I cannot help about the Anet side.
They are not interested to help us, seems.

Rise, my friends. Let them know we are tired of manipulators.

Try it. I dare you. No….I double DOG dare you!!!!

Pick a precursor….but up all the stock…..then relist for double the price.

I think you can do it. I have faith in you. You seem to have the Trading Post all figured out.

If you’re going to make claims, be prepared to back them up with data. If you can provide the community with data that a market is being manipulated (even if you manipulate the market yourself just to prove a point), then you’re more likely to be taken seriously.

Many of us have seen the data provided by ArenaNet….and I’m inclined to believe that data because it’s coming from the source where data is being collected. They have stated time and time again that specific markets are not being manipulated as some players think they are, specifically precursors and ectos.

The problem is, that no matter how much data they (ArenaNet) provides, the players “crying wolf” will always ask for more data, or believe that THAT data is being manipulated itself.

Personally, I would love to see one of the players saying a market is being manipulated step up and prove me wrong that ANY market can be manipulated.

So….my dare stands. Please….prove me and everyone else wrong.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Be careful Charismatic. Conspiracy theorists HATE it when you present data, as they have a hard time arguing against facts.

As for your chart, you should do one everyday this week, then chart the price movements into a single graph to see how they perform against each other. Although I do admit that a daily snapshot isn’t as accurate as one would like, seeing as how there’s constant movement 24/7 between snapshots.

Oh….I realize there’s nothing I can do, nor a dev from Anet can do, that will put conspiracy theorists to rest. I initially did that for my own benefit….to see if there really WAS something wrong. I really don’t think there is though.

It’d be nice to see what some of the “usual suspects” think though. I’ve been monitoring my thread to see what people say, but haven’t seen any criticism…..yet. I expect to see some soon though.

As for your idea of taking daily snapshots….while it might be nice to see, I really don’t care that much, lol. Also, I don’t think it would change the minds, or opinions, of those that are complaining.

I found the data useful and that’s what really mattered to me. I shared it because I hoped other people might find it useful as well.

caiomacos.1694:

Charismatic Harm.9683:

A seemingly endless supply of in-game gold has always plagued the Diablo franchise. I remember, way back when, in the first Diablo, I would end up dumping gigantic piles of money on the ground all over town because my character, nor bank, could hold it all.

Why would you need money in Diablo 1 anyway? Everyone just duplicated the same items: Kings Sword of Haste, Godly Plate of the Whale, etc. =)

Because I don’t play games the way others do. I attempt to play games the way there were designed. I don’t cheat. I don’t dupe. I don’t partake in things that “seem too good to be true”. Whether other people did or didn’t….that doesn’t matter to me. I play games for the enjoyment…..and I really don’t care if other people have “better stuff than me”.

Maybe I’m naive, but I’d like for the games that I enjoy not to be tarnished by people looking to get ahead by cheating.

A seemingly endless supply of in-game gold has always plagued the Diablo franchise. I remember, way back when, in the first Diablo, I would end up dumping gigantic piles of money on the ground all over town because my character, nor bank, could hold it all.

With an endless supply of money, prices will increase indefinitely.

The gold sinks in GW2 are what keep inflation in check and keep the prices of items reasonable…..which is why many items on the Trading Post don’t dramatically fluctuate or increase on a daily basis.

John Smith.4610:

GW2 TP is awesome. Not only is it good for our game, it’s good for the industry.

I agree!!

It’s simple, easy to use, and is completely player driven. The only complaints I see are in regards to REALLY high level items, or the items used to craft those items. Many of which the majority of the player base probably shouldn’t be worrying about anyway.

While I’d like to see some improvements to the UI and the information we can get from it, overall, I think the Trading Post is a wonderful, much needed tool.

laharl.8435:

Why is The Collosus always the most expensive? The supply to demand ratio is closer than any of the other popular precursors.

I noticed this too, but keep in mind, even for The Collosus, there are still almost 100 buy orders for every sell listing. That’s 1%. Most data sets have anomalies as well….this just happens to be the anomaly for this data set.

Edit: I just noticed this as well in regards to Collosus….

If you look two columns to the right, which shows the “demand” vs. “supply” for The Juggernaut, it’s actually the highest of all of them, which might be a contributing factor in the price of its precursor. Basically….The Juggernaut is in very high “demand” vs. it’s current “supply”. Food for thought at least.

I see a lot of threads being created regarding the supply of precursors and its effect on their price. What I see most often is complaints about a single precursor or a select few. I have never seen a comparison of all of the precursors at once though, so I did one myself.

I may be mistaken, but it would be my guess that “all precursors are created equally” in the eyes of ArenaNet and the calculation of the drop rate from a loot table. What I mean by that is that if comparing Dawn, Dusk, or The Hunter…..their chance to drop from a mob is equal to the chance that Venom, The Bard, or Carcharias could drop.

Given that, I put together a little spreadsheet to compare ALL of the precursors and their respective Legendaries in an attempt to see how “demand” affects the price of these items.

What I found was that the items people complain most often about not dropping often enough are also the ones with the highest sell prices on the Trading Post. The reverse is also true. The precursors and Legendaries you never hear people complain about are also the ones that look to be in lower “demand”.

Keep in mind that I’m well aware that the data from GW2Spidy regarding “supply” and “demand” do not equate to the real supply and demand. Since we don’t have, nor will we ever have, that data, I used what was available to me in an attempt get a hold on this myself. I have posted my results here as a topic of conversation.

My findings are, whether you like it or not, that prices are being dictated by the player base. The more people that want an item will inherently drive its price up. If less people wanted The Hunter, Dawn or Dusk, my guess is the prices of those items would go down.

Enjoy, discuss…..complain!!!!

xHoudinix.4523:

I don’t know, but it does sound like a great idea. But I think the negativity on these items is that the chest are dropped so often, but the only way to get the keys for them is doing the personal storyline or buying them. I hear people getting the keys from loot, but the odds seem pretty low. While chest are easier to obtain from loot. Heck, I even have 7 chest right now and thats still growing.

That’s kind of what I’m getting at with the survey.

Maybe it needs to have 2 ratings per item….the perceived usefulness…..and the perceived chance to receive the item upon opening.

Usefulness: Rating between 1 and 10 (1 = low, 10 = high)
% Chance: Rating between 1 and 10 (1 = too low, 10 = too high)

Ratings of 1 to 5 would probably be sufficient as my guess would be that many players are going to peg their ratings at the extremes anyway.

The combination of those two ratings should tell ArenaNet which items the players want most and possibly how to adjust their drops rates.

Based on the amount of negativity I’ve been seeing recently about the Black Lion Chest contents and their inherent drop rates, I came up with an idea in another thread that I felt may deserve its own discussion.

What if ArenaNet instituted a survey in-game after you opened a Black Lion Chest that asked you to rate each of the possible items that could come out of it based on the perceived usefulness of that item?

I don’t know if they’d want to do this or not because they’d have to tell you what you can possibly get out of the chest, but in cases of special items, they could group things together like “weapon skins”, “armor skins”, or “holiday items”. Maybe just some general categories like “boosters”.

This way, the community could participate in providing feedback to ArenaNet regarding something that is surrounded by SO much negativity at the moment and if they feel like changes should be made, they’ve got data to back up their decisions.

Players were asked to take in-game surveys during the beta weekend to rate how they felt an event or quest was. A survey about these chests could be similar.

If you open a chest, you’re presented with a survey that you can choose to take, or not. Once you take the survey, you won’t be presented with it again. You can also choose to “cancel” the survey to take at a later time. The last option would be to “decline” taking the survey. Only in the case of “cancelling” it would you be presented with the option of taking the survey the next time you open a chest.

Does anyone think this would be useful? Does anyone have suggestions to make this idea better?

Keep in mind that it will most likely need to be a very simple survey in order for people to take the time to do it and for ArenaNet to gather the results and present the data to their design teams. For example, ratings from 1 to 10 where 1 is not useful at all and 10 being extremely useful.

Elentari.9156:

The fundamental issue as I see it is that these threads all make the basic assumption that the chest has no value in itself.

[clipped]

The thing that is preventing this scenario from occurring is that people assign no value to the majority of the chest’s drops.

[clipped]

Now, obviously not everyone is going to find every item equally useful….

I picked out a few points that you made that I think are great. I agree that is seems most people apply no value to the items that come from the chest that aren’t the ones they’re looking for.

Maybe Anet should institute an in-game survey. They did it for quests and events during the beta. It was triggered for the player on completion of the event.

What if they could trigger a survey when a player opened a chest and asked them to rate the “value” of the items in the chest. They could collect this data and make adjustments if necessary.

So as not to overwhelm a player with a survey every time they opened a chest, it could pop up each time they do until the user does one of two things. They either complete the survey, or they click the button that declines taking the survey.

These chests seem to have a lot of player negativity associated with them. It would be kind of cool if they did a survey to see what players really think. Doing it on the forums won’t work, but doing it from within the game would.

Geotherma.2395:

I thought 800-1200 ($10-$15) was fine for the skin price with gems. $25 is almost half the price of the game itself, more than half if you bought it discounted. ^^ The reason for my price would be, take a look at Dagger(s)/Sword(s). That gets pricey.

I think price SHOULD be a limiting factor. Remember, this is a skin we’re talking about. Nothing more. If it’s meant to be rare (and given the abysmal drop rate from the chest, it is), then it should be rare in the game too.

Allow people to support ArenaNet by paying a high price for it. If you don’t want to pay the high up-front price, then gamble for it. If you want TWO…..well…..decide how badly you really want two of them.

I agree that it probably shouldn’t ONLY be available through the chests, but having one should also come at a price. For a rare item, that price should be high.

I’ve been thinking about this more and more with all the threads complaining about it.

I really do think it’s a good thing. I don’t think they’re going to change it this time around, but for the future, perhaps a combination of ideas could work.

Right now, they’ve got a token you can turn in for the skin of your choice at a vendor contained in a chest guarded by RNG. I like this idea because you don’t continually have to fight RNG to get the skin you want. If you get a token, you get the skin you want. Perfect!!!

This is the ONLY way to get the item though….by fighting the RNG guard. I think this is where the biggest heartburn throughout the community is.

If they were to add the skins to the Gem Store for purchase, that would appease many of the players….depending on the price of course. If it’s too low, no one will fight the RNG guard for their skin because it’s “cheaper” to just buy the skin. If the price is too high, people will complain that they’re forcing us to fight the RNG guard for our skin. There has to be a balance. The community wants their pretty new shiny and Anet wants to make money.

What should the price in the Gem Store be though? Personally, I think it should be a value in Gems corresponding to the value in Gems of the keys (125 Gems per key) used to open the chest and the % chance of getting the item FROM the chest. Where would that put the price though?

If the % chance of getting a skin token is 1%, then it “should” take about 100 chest openings to get the skin you want. That would make the price 12,500 Gems per skin.

If the % chance is 0.5%, it should cost about 25,000 Gems per skin.

25,000 Gems seems totally unreasonable though. In USD, that’s $312.50.

Even at 12,500 Gems it’s bordering on ridiculous…..$156.25

How much should a skin cost? I would say around $25. That puts it around 2,000 Gems. Total reasonable. Totally understandable. It’s a rare skin. It should have a high price. If you don’t like the high price, then gamble for it, but it’s not likely you’ll get one unless I’m totally underestimating the drop rate of the skin from the chest.

Kurow.6973:

So, after having attempted another 79 chests today, after the 48 attempts yesterday…I have come to the decision that I’m not supporting any kind of RNG bullkitten in this game any longer. Also, if this RNG trend continues…I will most probably be finding myself a replacement game, as I am not a fan of RNG based rewards.

I’m SEVERELY disappointed at ANet at this point about this whole matter. I’m not even mad about the situation, just EXTREMELY disappointed that I was supporting this game so valiantly up until this point, even though they ruined two of the most important things that made the original Guild Wars, Guild Wars (the pvp set up and the skill diversity).

After what I read on the forums about the Black Lion Chests around Halloween when everyone and their dog was trying to get the skins out of there, I wouldn’t do this in the first place…..but pretty shiny skins really aren’t my thing anyway.

Given the amount of complaining I’ve been seeing lately regarding the RNG to get these new skins, I’d like to use your results as an example.

You used 79+48 keys to open at total of 127 Black Lion Chests.
Let’s assume you got a generous 40% return of keys from your Chest openings (or you already had through various in game tasks).
That would mean that you used 77 keys that you purchased with Gems, which means you spent 9,625 Gems on keys……or if you bought them at the discounted price by buying 5 for 450 Gems…..you would have spent 6,930 Gems….or if you bought them when the sale was going on and got them for 5 for 360 Gems…..you would have spent 5,544 Gems.

Let’s use the LEAST possible amount of Gems you could have bought (5,544) and see how the numbers work out.

If you converted gold to Gems, using a conversion rate of 100 Gems / 2g, to buy those keys, you effectively removed 110g88s00c from the economy in the process.

If you bought those gems with real money, you paid approximately $69.30 USD.

Either way you look at it, you have done an amazing job of supporting a wonderful game and I’m sure there are a lot of other players that have done the same. You are just one player. Imagine how many other players did this too.

Let’s say 10 did it……that’s 1108g80s00c removed from the economy or $693.00 USD put into Anet’s pockets….

What about 100 other players……
11,088g00s00c removed or $6,930.00 USD given to Anet.

1000?
110,880g00s00c removed or $69,300 USD given to Anet.

If you choose not to participate in any future RNG methods of achieving desirable items, that’s totally your choice, but I, for one, would like to thank you for your contributions to keep this wonderful game alive and free to play.

Thank you,
Sincerely,
Charismatic Harm

To sum up the complaints I see….

The Halloween way of RNG in the chests was bad.
The Wintersday way of RNG in the chests was ok because they offered the skins up in the Gem Store.
This latest way is bad because it’s more like Halloween and less like Wintersday.

Does anyone else see a pattern? It looks to me like Anet made MORE money around Halloween than they did during Wintersday……so this last time, they decided to go back to that method because it makes them more money.

Those people that are suggesting Anet would make more money if they offered the skins up for sale in the Gem Store look to be wrong….solely based on the method Anet chose for releasing these skins.

Just because you want something, that doesn’t mean your opinion is right.

Void.4205:

Should really just complain to the ESRB for not listing gambling on the games rating.

Every game with loot tables and drop rates would have to have “gambling” on their ESRB rating then because each time you kill a mob, you’ve gambled your time (which equals “money”) to get something from that mob.

And honestly….when you don’t HAVE to use real money to get Gem Store items for use in “gambling”….it’s not really gambling.

BOSSMAN.2647:

I opened 85 chests and got 3 tokens and 2 name change contracts

Hehehehe……just came to rub it in. NICE!!!!

Gratz man!!!

OP…..you’re right. These sales are silly. What Anet needs to do is stop putting things on sale….they’re only losing revenue when they do.

NO MORE SALES ARENANET!!!!! NO ONE LIKES THEM!!!!!

Does that about cover it?

Valanga.5942:

Vol.5241:

If you want a cheap precursor go get Venom. Otherwise don’t complain about demand/supply forces.

Do you really have to post this in every single topic?

He posts it everywhere because it makes a VERY valid point. Not all Legendaries are created equally, hence, not all precursors are created equally.

It is player supply and demand for an item that determines its price. If fewer people wanted Sunrise / Twilight, what do you think would happen to the price of their respective precursors Dawn / Dusk? Their prices would go down.

He brings up Venom because it’s not a highly demanded precursor because the Legendary that uses it isn’t in high demand.

My bet is that the drop rates for Dusk / Dawn / Venom are all equal on the loot tables, but because Duck / Dawn are more highly coveted….their prices are higher.

So….if you want a cheap precursor….buy a Venom.

Sanarian.9614:

Pretty much. They seem fond of shafting anyone that doesn’t play Gold Wars 2 on the Trading Post and/or has a disposable income.

Just to be clear……

I do play on the Trading Post and have gathered, what I consider to be, a healthy sum of money. I also have disposable income that I could spend on GW2.

I don’t see anything wrong with putting these items in the chest though. What I have issue with is the people that buy keys month after month, then complain they didn’t get what they wanted…..especially when the update notes the last 2 times there were desirable items in the chest stated there was a rare chance of getting one.

Fool me once (but they didn’t because I didn’t buy any keys), shame on you. Fool me twice….shame on me.

I feel no sympathy toward players that continue to DUMP Gems / Gold / Real Money into buying BL Keys to open chests for such a small chance of getting something “worthwhile”.

There’s nothing wrong with opening them every now and then with the hopes of getting lucky….but don’t count on it.

I buy lottery tickets every time I fill up my car with gas….but I don’t go into the gas station and complain that they sold me a losing ticket last time.

I haven’t played since the patch, but if I learned anything about new items released after a new patch….think Wintersday and Halloween…..those new items will usually not go up in price over time….they’ll go down.

I usually sell everything early because prices are outrageous….then buy back 10x the amount later once prices fall.

If you REALLY want to make sure you do the right thing, you’ll have to monitor the price and if you see it start to tank, unload everything you have. If it keeps rising….hold onto them until you see the price hike slow down.

As few of us as there are that say “we won’t spend money for a miniscule chance at something”…..I feel there are a FAR greater number of people that will.

This is what ArenaNet is counting on when putting these new skins that are highly desirable into something that can only be opened with something that requires a Gem purchase….although you can get a few keys here and there just by playing.

Buying anything from the Gem Store helps in one of two ways. It either removes gold from the economy from those converting gold to Gems…..or it puts money in Anet’s pockets from those that buy Gems with real money. Either way….it’s a win/win for them.