Showing Posts For phys.7689:

Feedback: Dragon Hunter [merged]

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Dragonhunter… eh? Ok.. is this a joke?

Weapon – Longbow
Skills – Traps

Weapon Skills
——————
Bow has a focus of firing single, large projectiles .

Symbol of Energy – Fires an arrow into an area granting Vigor to allies.
Deflecting Shot – Destroys projectiles in its path.

Traps
——-
Heal Trap – Heals for a small amount when placed. Heals for a large amount, as well as applying Blind when triggered.

Where is the damage to kill a dragon? Wait… are we talking about zhaitanesque fights? Why not just call it a paragon as it is indeed a Paragon 2.0?

Let’s wait and see if this specialization gets better as more details are revealed/polished.

Damage? For all we know the base Auto Attack does 4,000 damage with a base critical hit chance of 120% All the video showed were lights and effecets

which highlights, bows are boring as hell.

Dragonhunter - Guardian Elite Specialization

in Fractals, Dungeons & Raids

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Well now we can speculate on Banshee GS/Shouts necro.

Necros will get conjures, heard it here first

imo

no ones getting conjures, looks like each spec gives 5+? of that skill
5 wells
5 traps
6 shouts?

i highly doubt they want to give a class 25 new skills
soo say goodbye to kits as well!

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

but realistically the problem is tracking the data is a pretty monumental task, you would also want to track the number of loot earning situations (bags/enemies/shakies/whatever)
pretty monumental by hand

Yes, that’s why i proposed dungeons for initial check. The number of enemies and chests is mostly constant for them (barring cases of skipping/not skipping), so it simplifies comparing the data.
Yes, if we could track the game history better, playing normally would be preferred (since it would generate a lot of other interesting data as well). Since we can’t, we do need to try to normalize the compared environ across all accounts

yeah dungeons might make it effecient to track loot opputunities, but dungeons are also a unique environment and interact with the code differently. Its also not how most drops come into the world. You need to look at how people generally interact, not how they react in extremely closed circumstances.

Lets say if the issue exists, it turns out to be related to how a map interacts with 100 accounts accessing the rng function at an incredible rate; this type of issue wouldnt show up in a small instance with few accounts, and fewer loot generating events per time frame.

Feedback: Dragon Hunter [merged]

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

good for you guardians, now you have everything, range, tankiness, conditions, group utility, blocks, etc, and another class has further impinged upon the necros domain with regard to condition application. Now they should just come out and make necros invulnerable, dress in black and white, do no damage, and stand on the sidelines picking their noses.

what is necro domain? conditions? thats not really unique to necro. and they are going from horrible at conditions, to average at conditions, it really isnt a big deal

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I’m afraid that they will lock elite specializations behind 100% core specialization completion (because that seems like something they would do.) You’ll be forced to “specialize” in all kinds of things you have absolutely no interest in to specialize in something you are interested in.

I’m betting you’ll need 465 to unlock all the core stuff before you can even consider getting an elite spec, which could require 100 or more on its own. As someone who mostly plays WvW with multiple characters, I am concerned.

probably:

but they may just lock it behind being 80.

If you deny diminishing returns as a farmer..

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

What I have noticed about Guild War’s 2 is ALL the Gold coming into the game comes from the Gem store.

This is 100% false. The majority of gold in game comes from either Dungeon rewards (majority) or selling items to the vendor(all those grey items). Teq gives 2 gold minimum each time it is completed per person. I am sure the 3 headed Worm does a similar amount and other world events give a handful of silver. That is just raw currency rewards right off the top of my head.

BTW, I stopped reading at this point because when someone is SOOOOO wrong in the first couple sentences there is no reason to read the rest of a wall of text like that. IF there are any salient points made they will be repeated later on on a lesser wall.

Cherry picking one long boss event that you will likely do once a day at most to get you just 2 gold when it costs hundreds of Gold to craft anything epic? Really? All the other trash in this game sells for coppers and most of the bosses don’t give you any trash to sell for gold or even copper. Even the level 80 junk sells for coppers.

You tell me how do you make the hundreds of Gold needed in a reasonable time frame to level up your crafting & craft Ascended gear without selling anything on the black market (as your salvaging it all for mats) and without spending weeks or even months grinding?

the gem market creates no gold, it actually reduces gold.
All gold comes from event rewards, gold drops, bag loot (give like 3 copper) and people npcing crap.
then people trade each other thier gold on the bltc.
yes, most people are poor. The rich people got their dough from the poor people, or they did a ton of dungeons.

If you deny diminishing returns as a farmer..

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

From the OP’s description, it sounds like random variation rather than diminished returns. The easiest way to tell if you’re getting DR for Breach/VW farming is to look at event credit: if the karma/xp gain is lower than normal (or tiny), it’s DR; otherwise, it’s probably not DR.

^^This, this is how you can tell that DR is affecting you, and I can almost guarantee that even playing 8 hours in SW is not going to get you hit by DR. I have yet to reach the DR wall in any zone, even when I played well over 8 hours in that same zone on the same character(which I do in SW all the time). I suspect it’s just the random nature of drops, nothing more.

there are multiple types of DR event DR is different from drop DR

Dragonhunter - Guardian Elite Specialization

in Fractals, Dungeons & Raids

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Doesnt fit into dungeon meta as it stands in any respect

combo focus on blast
melee controls boss position
conditions not favored

could be useful with other weapons, but is giving up a line going to be that useful if you ignore both traps, and the weapon?

also possible the meta will change with regard to combo fields/positioning/boss control
buuuuut nothing they mentioned really suggests that

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I kind of get where the people of the same mindset as the OP in this topic are coming from. However, having to re-unlock skills with hero points that are given to character based on that specific characters progress related its level and skill challenges completed might be the only real way they can implement migration to this system realistically.

Then they should have designed a different system. One that would not require taking abilities away from people that already had them.

And actually, there are ways to do migration without people losing things. I can think of several offhand, and seen some proposed in this and other threads as well. It’s just a matter of how much Anet truly cares about the ideas they themselves claim to follow.

which ones do you think would work well within the system, and be implemened relatively easily, i ve seen only a few i think could work

Elite Spec= subclasses: Predict the rest

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

ok looks like elite specs will generally be subclasses, and will use primarily skills from the other classes. So with this info we can guess the future.
we have

  • Chronomancer: Mes/necro: wells with a time/control twist
  • Dragonhunter: Guardian/rng: traps with a support twist
    predictions
  • Theif elite spec: Theif/Eng: id love to see kits, but it will probably be gadgets, 6 kits would be a ton of skills, probably a utility increase focus. how would steal change? hmm..
  • Necro elite spec: Necro/warrior shouts, can go DS or trade lifeforce for burst/attribute boost. better support burstish use for lifeforce
  • Engineer elite spec: Eng/guardian spirit weaps, though they will be techno based, like those drones. new utilities is basically new class mechanics for engineer.
  • warrior elite spec: war/thief: dagger: venoms. dual wield would be awesome, but the amount of combinations warrior has is much greater, so i doubt it. burst skills take a venom?
  • ele elite spec: ele/mes swords and mantras
  • druid: rng/rev plant based stances? i dunno, could be /mes with plant illusions
  • revenant: rev/ele gets an elemntalist legend
    last three im a bit fuzzy on
    could be eng/warrior and necro/guardian

reposted due to an error, sorreh

Feedback: Dragon Hunter [merged]

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

the changes to virtues seem pretty cool,
however, the bow skills seem fairly boring.
it really feels like this specialization should really have had a spear. and been able to go in and out of melee rng.

spear could do more dmg at close range, but more utility at long range,
anyhow that ship has salied.

The biggest mistake i think arenanet is making here, is that back line support is not encouraged by other facets of the game design.

Control is limited, so people gather to make the enemy more predictable.

support is best supported with AOE, and people gathering together. Even if the guardian has a couple decent support skills, if he isnt in the area, he isnt benefiting from might/protect/etc.

lastly support is heavily tied to combo fields
if their traps have blasts, they need to be close to the gathered party/enemy
if their traps dont, their combo field support will be ranged, which has them missing out.

i think the concept is good, but they needed a weapon with different properties, and they needed special abilities that adapt to the support meta, or the support meta to change.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

As I asked in the other thread.

Why are some people (Astral, Fleshwound, etc) so opposed to having Anet look into this? What do you personally have to lose if they look into this.

I simply believe them when they said they did look into it and found nothing. I do not require them to repeat that every time the next similar thread pops up. I also know that Mr Smith does run checks anytime someone brings up some data that backs up their claim that something might be a problem (yes, might be, not necessarily is – mere suspicion, if it’s backed by data that looks fishy, is enough).

And yes I know they looked into this before, however I’d like them to look into DR as well.

They did. This did not confirm that DR is not a problem, but showed that the number of people that are even affected by it in a given time is extremely small. As in double digits per day, if i remember correctly.

I don’t really expect a response. I think at this point they are here to derail the thread to make it close. Everyone has heard your points over and over. This still doesn’t dimiss the fact that there COULD BE a problem.

It is possible there could be a problem, but I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that there is a problem.

Basically, this.

Sorry I know you haven’t read the other threads. But there is no way to gather evidence to show this isn’t problem.

Unfortunately it’s true. But if there is a problem, then showing that it may exist should be possible. Granted, it wouldn’t be easy, and would require lot of work and perseverance.

Yes, i know that shouting loud is easier, but it only makes the message more annoying, and not more persuasive.

There are ways for players to make statistic tests but that requires alot of community effort. Without proper tests our suppositions are invalid and remain w/o proof.
A way to do this will be to get 100 players, all having same level, all having same %magic find (we know that magic find dont afect chest drops but do affect mob drops), and make those players do exactly same activity on same server time on a shard with a certain population number.
After 3 hours, compare the data.
Redo the test changing the parameters.
Rinse, repeat.
THIS is how statistics are done and how valid data is gathered.

You wouldn’t even need 100 accounts. Just picking few accounts that seem to you to be lucky, and few accounts that seem to be unlucky, then making them note all activity and drops should be enough for some very basic, entry level data that could be then used to refine the further tests (or even make Anet take some action, if the results would differ significantly from expectations). Still, you’d need to do that last step ( “rinse, repeat”) many, many times. The longer, the better. The best option would be to somehow log all activity and drops on an account for extended periods of time. Similar activity on all accounts, of course, would be the best.

My suggestion would be to use dungeons, preferably the same path, day after day after day, and note all the drops. Instanced nature of dungeons would help to normalize a lot of variables.

before you try to limit your results to identify an issue, you should first confirm the broad situation.
if your data from instances turns up one way, that only tells you that instances are all good.

have the people play as they normally do.

but realistically the problem is tracking the data is a pretty monumental task, you would also want to track the number of loot earning situations (bags/enemies/shakies/whatever)
pretty monumental by hand

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

The problem is, all the evidence is anecdotal. Someone hasn’t gotten a rare or exotic drop for a long time, but their friend who just started playing the game this week, got 3 in one dungeon run. This seems to be all the evidence there really is.

anecdotal evidence is generally seen first. then it is more formally recorded. The fact of the matter is, we dont have the tools to easily track this except by anecdote.

it is the type of thing that is fairly unlikely for one person to test, though it is pretty likely that IF it were the case, players would notice it, anecdotally.

Is HoT Destroying Build Diversity?

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

This is just another case of ArenaNet being lazy. They created a system where there was huge potential for a variety of builds, however they lacked follow through to actually balance traits. There are traits that were absolutely useless or even negatively impacted the class. Even after months or even years of telling them they still didn’t get a clue. Two that I know off the top of my head are the thief stealth at 25% hp and the Necro minion when you kill something. The necro one was hilarious because no only did necros know it was useless, it was also broken. It took big threads in the necro forums to even get a dev response of “working as intended”, then more big threads showing that was indeed not the case. Eventually it was fixed but still useless. In beta you could select from all the traits in the line, which was awesome and allowed you to customize they way you wanted. Then they forced you into certain traits and that killed more build variety so they didn’t have to balance things.

So yes, this certainly kills diversity by further simplifying choices. They should have given more choices, that’s what this game needed. Don’t get me wrong, the trait system was terrible to start, but every change since beta has been in the wrong direction. This game needs depth, they are just making it shallower and shallower. It’s downright boring.

i agree with most of what you said here.

people dont realize that the problem with the old trait system wasnt too much choice, it was lack creating interesting/useful traits. Nothing about reducing your options increases viability.
The only thing that increases viability, is creating more interesting/useful traits, marrying themselves to only having 3 choices per slot does not increase the chances, or future chances of interesting traits.

Is HoT Destroying Build Diversity?

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Well I did say “each of the remaining build possibilities” so that would mean (hypothetically) instead of having 5 good builds out of 1000 with the current system, I would expect the new system to provide perhaps 20-30 builds max, but every single one of the 20-30 builds would be useful or just as good as the 5 or so builds from the old system (the old system being the current system).

Too bad we can already see this won’t be the case, right?

Yeah surely some meta builds will emerge but the point is that all other build shouldnt fall way behind like now, and that’s a good thing

I don’t think you looked too closely at the traits of all the classes in what was revealed of the new system.

I can’t speak for all classes since I main only engi and elem and I’ve looked deeply only for those. I see at least 4-5 equally good builds each that can all be meta at the same time, instead of 1-2 we have now. If that’d not diversity…

Anyway until the system is out we cant really say

are you talking pve or pvp?
because people have already theorycrafted that ele will be dominantly staff for effeciency now, and not impressed by any new builds.

engineer, things will probably change a bit, mostly because they changed a lot of the traits, and added new class mechanices, more options? i dont see it. especially with so many to be determined traits, and a few traits that have no data.

there is only one facet of this change that seems to promote more builds, and thats removing stats from the equation.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

i can think of some ways, but im genuinely curious.

Essentially, observed differences in drops due to the natural variance of a stochastic system with a common distribution are constrained by the sample size; as the same size increases, the proportional standard deviation shrinks (roughly by a factor of 2 when the sample size increases by a factor of 4). That is, as the same size goes down, the observed variance should go down.

Differences in drops due to other factors will not change with sample size – differences in distribution will remain and become more stark as more and more observations are made.

You can run a t-test on two accounts, or an omnibus test on several, it really doesn’t matter – if parameter estimates converge on each other as sample size increases there’s nothing odd going on, if they don’t converge with sample size and the distribution structure remains then there’s something not accounted for in the model.

but first you would have to identify over performing/under performing versus average performing acounts, which means they have to collect data on how much high rarity, and mid rarity items accounts get, versus total items monsters killed/bags opened

I doubt they are actively storing and tracking this data on an account basis, and even if they are, JS makes it seem like they limit the complexity/scope of his queries (vague recollection of him wishing he could return more data)

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Chuck that isn’t what this thread is about. Also you’re mis interpreting what Anet said. They are doing the next beta by both random email and by the portal drops. So if you didn’t get a portal drop there’s still a chance you get in through selection from email.

or you are misinterpreting and it means " If you aren’t selected from the mailing list you still have a chance to by looting a portal. The whole point of newsletter was to select a player base for the BETA’s. By making it available to everyone completely nulls there reasoning for newsletter.So RNG conundrum again.

But then why invite everyone to try for a portal if only those on the list could get one?

The mailing list got the first round of players into the stress test, the portals was the means to expand the number participation. Again under the rational that RNG is fair to all.

which is an interesting fallacy, that many developers/game designers seem to have.

just because everyone has similar chances of success, doesnt mean they will have similar realities.
In fact normal distribution of random dictates it will be completely unfair, we just dont know where we will end up on the spectrum.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Some accounts are “lucky” by pure RNG outlier existence just the same as some accounts are “cursed” by it. Outliers are a statistical existence in any random system. How many times do you people need to be told there is no account flag?

Seriously, if you people arent going to believe Anet about that, stop posting. There’s no point having a discussion with you if you’re already dead set on refusing to believe Anet (and JS specifically) when they say “beyond MF%, your account means nothing to chances at drops.” There is literally no proof Anet can give you that you’ll believe, beyond them confirming it (which is HIGHLY unlikely).

It doesnt have to be an account flag that causes unintended results.

what anet says is what they believe to be the case, not necesarily what is the case. I remember some big issues they swore wasnt the case until months of player complaints caused them to examine the issue.

that said, i am not saying that it is definite that the outliers are not a result of random distribution.
but im not going to claim definitively that it is impossible that for whatever reasons, some accounts end up exhibiting patterns of being unlucky. It may not even be directly related to the rng, but that does not mean the result is not the same.

for example, people complaining of no loot from mobs back in the day, they figured out that they had higher thresholds of dps for getting items, than getting exp.
inspite of the fact that they said any one who was getting exp was definately eligible for loot.

point is, sorry history shows, mistakes happen, what they intend is not always the reality. To start off your assumption with arena net knows, and would never, is a flawed assumption.

They dont know everything. Pieces of code they didnt even know still existed effect the game.

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

However, I cant really get with people implying 3 hours of effort on their pve charachters, is too much effort. If you dont want to spend 3 hours in PVE with your charachter, its likely you dont want to pve with that charachter.

To me this is big issue, and bit too much effort too.

I have 11 accounts, and all accounts have 8 characters. So totally I have 88 characters. I have played them one by one and level them all to level 80. I have all traits and skills open, so literally they are ready for next phase of plan. I have level them by opening waypoints and done all hearts and their stories. Only one of my character have done map completion.

Now when I have got my last character in this point I have started to do crafting and I want to do ascended gears to all of them. So I have started to work for it. I am farming materials and money for them. I know, I am totally late for that and maybe I am last person who is doing it, but that is my goal. To do ascended armor and weapons to all of them.

Now, my situation is this. I have 5,5 hours /week time to play this game. That’s why it has taken so long to level up all of my characters and I am in this crafting part.

So, I need to do more or less 65 skill challenges to rest of my 87 characters now. That kind of characters who have already open all skills and all traits. You say that it will take like 3 hours / 65 skill points and I have 5,5 hours / week time to play this game. So lets calculate:
3 hour x 87 Character = 261 hours
261 hours / 5,5 hours/week = 47, 4 weeks to get done those skill challenges.

That means I am just doing next 47,4 weeks skill challenges every hour what I can play, for those characters who already have opened once all skills and traits. That sounds WASTE OF TIME to me. I am not able to work for those ascended armors for 47,4 weeks.

Now someone asks why do I have so many accounts and so many characters. Just for supporting ArenaNet. I have spend to all these accounts big deal of real life money. I admit, it ends now. I will not spent even one dime for this game and I am not supporting ArenaNet anymore. I won’t even buy expansion, just because of those 47,4 weeks what I need to waste my time for doing something what I have already done once before. Just to get all my core game skills and traits open once again.

just be clear, you will only need to unlock skill challenges, if you have not already unlocked them.
being that you said you leveled you charachters by doing hearts, and getting way points, i am assuming you probably also did skill challenges around you.

its not about map completition it is ONLY about skill challenges, and you ONLY need 65 done. its retroactive.

heres how you tell, look at you charchters current number of skill challenges
is it greater than 65?

if yes, this charachter can unlock all core skills and traits, with no additional effort

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

so you have no problem with the idea that you will likely have to do 100+ skill challenges per charachter to unlock the elite spec?

I keep seeing this, but haven’t seen anything official indicating it.

Is it simply because 189-165= 124 and we’re assuming that the elite will cost all or most of the remaining HP beyond the core unlock?

because in the video, the dev spent like 60 points unlocking a trait line, and 25-35 points unlocking skills in a line.
they did say somethings may change, and they never said elite would cost the same, but its a fair assumption.

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Its not a waste of time because it gives you something of value skills, traits,

Nope.

I already had them. Taking my lunch away and making me pay again for it isn’t two lunches.

and in fact, with the new system it does give you various mats, skins, weapons, etc. Did you not notice the shaky chests that were popping up with each unlock?

No, I didn’t. With non-Elite spec lines? Can you link the right vid?

the content of skill challenges is not drastically different than the content that gives you gold/mats anyhow. Go to the event, complete the event and kill stuff. Thats not really any different. If you hate going somewhere and killing enemies or interacting with objects, what exactly do you do in this game

SC Content is much easier, and reward is different (i.e. nothing). It’s not remotely comparable.

Is your beef the loss of progress
or is your beef having to do skill challenges

because these are fundamentally different things, and have different solutions.

The former leading to the latter. Solve the former and the latter isn’t an issue.

so you have no problem with the idea that you will likely have to do 100+ skill challenges per charachter to unlock the elite spec?
No problem that every alt you create in the future will need 65 skill challenges before they are core complete?

as to the items, its unclear, the video had them but its unclear what he unlocked to trigger them(could have been achieves), so ill withdraw that.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

the case people are making is that the system has some accounts that are luckier than others. Statistics will in fact back this up, completely, without question. It actually fits into the expected patterns.

Statistical analysis of data generated by a ‘lucky’ and an ‘unlucky’ account would have no problem whatsoever distinguishing whether or not the accounts were systematically lucky or unlucky, or if what’s being observed is simply a consequence of a truly random system.

This is actually one of the easiest statistical tests to do (variations of a T-test) and the how’s and why’s of its workings are extremely well understood. Detecting bias is quick and easy, statistically. There are, of course, limits on the informativeness of any particular sample – but any bias can be demonstrated with a sufficiently large sample, and the larger the bias, the smaller the sample needed to identify it.

explain how you would test this, most statistical analysis looking for a bias, would first have to clearly define the groups they were comparing.

i can think of some ways, but im genuinely curious. Information i see on T tests wouldnt work here, because even if predestined lucky accounts exist, the cause of their existence is unknown (making them hard to classify and compare)

the types of analysis i think could uncover this situation, dont seem to be type of analysis John smith has talked about doing. I dont even know if they track and classify the data necessary to test it.

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

However, I cant really get with people implying 3 hours of effort on their pve charachters, is too much effort. If you dont want to spend 3 hours in PVE with your charachter, its likely you dont want to pve with that charachter.

It’s not 3hrs of PVE.

3hrs of PVE would give me several gold, tons of mats, fuel for the mystic toilet, lots and lots and lots of XP (Mastery, here), and so on.

This is 3hrs of LITERALLY WASTED time.

Don’t lie about what it is.

also, as i have said before, the average is 3 minutes per skill point. yeah, some take longer, but you dont need every skillpoint challenge, and some also take substantially less time.

My calculations make it 5 mins avg.

so basically, just go for the easy ones.

Every character has different ones done, so not possible without a lot of time/money wasting.

like your interior decorating analogy, if you really want a pretty house, you are going to have to put forth some effort into making it pretty, thats not really a crazy concept

I already had a pretty house. Why did you set fire to my bedroom and refuse to fix it?

Its not a waste of time because it gives you something of value
skills, traits,

and in fact, with the new system it does give you various mats, skins, weapons, etc. Did you not notice the shaky chests that were popping up with each unlock?

the content of skill challenges is not drastically different than the content that gives you gold/mats anyhow. Go to the event, complete the event and kill stuff. Thats not really any different. If you hate going somewhere and killing enemies or interacting with objects, what exactly do you do in this game

Is your beef the loss of progress
or is your beef having to do skill challenges

because these are fundamentally different things, and have different solutions.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

ALSO how DR is applied/functions/disappears is not an issue that can be separated from random. Mostly because the only information players get, is how much stuff they get and the quality of that stuff, whether the problem is DR or rng is a behind the scenes issue, and while it matters for solving the problem, it really doesnt matter at all with the reality of what you get and the quality of what you get.

Short version
it doesnt matter if you have crappy “luck” because your account has bugged/odd DR or because your account is cursed by a bad rng. The result is the same, and the information that anet has given us is the same.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I think the idea that the very nature of HOW DR works and is “removed” is pretty much a mystery (for good reason, I believe) is a HUGE part of the problem of the (mistaken) belief that certain players (or accounts or characters) are “unlucky”.

Most players don’t realize that it’s entirely possible for a character to farm an area to trigger the DR code and then log out…..log back in a month later and the DR code is STILL possibly active on that character at the present location….(they may actually need to actively play in another zone to turn off the DR code affecting them).

The fact that the above scenario may be possible could GREATLY effect a players perception of their “luck” within the game. That does not change the fact that they are 100% mistaken when they claim their account is “unlucky”.

…….
The question is WHY are certain accounts luckier,…..

The fact that you asked the question in THIS manner is really the root of the perception issue you seem to have…..You have convinced yourself the above question is valid and many players think you are border line insane when you ask it…..

actually it is not a perception issue at all.
you may be misinterpreting what i am saying.

no account is “lucky” no matter what, because all the systems at play here are not based on luck at all. It is completely deterministic.

when i say “lucky” i mean some accounts will experience greater positive drops than others, the only way this would not occur, is if the system was not accurately simulating a random distribution.

now, some people say that some people experience greater positive drops than others, due to random chance, with no bias.
and other people say some people experience greater positive drops than others due to a flawed random generator, which has a bias.

neither situation is challenging the concept that some people experience greater positive drops than others, which i will call “lucky” for shorthand.

If these “lucky” players didnt exist, then this would be a truely bad simulation of random behaviors.

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

However, I cant really get with people implying 3 hours of effort on their pve charachters, is too much effort. If you dont want to spend 3 hours in PVE with your charachter, its likely you dont want to pve with that charachter.

It’s the difference between 3 hours of effort going for a goal you haven’t reached yet and being required to put in 3 hours of effort to earn something you’ve already earned. And multiply that by the number of characters that need to do it.

like your interior decorating analogy, if you really want a pretty house, you are going to have to put forth some effort into making it pretty, thats not really a crazy concept

Except, in this case we already have the pretty house. But the guy who sold us the wallpaper is planning on coming in and stripping about 20% of it off the walls so we have to put it up again. That is a crazy concept.

as i said, i understand that argument.

but the reasoning is different.

the person whose reasoning is, Anet created the system, i followed the rules, they change the rules, and now want to take back what i legitimately earned.
These people have a valid point, but the amount of work is largely irrelevant, the main issue is progress being taken way.

however the person who is multiplying 3 hours per 30 charachters reasoning, is that it is too much work to have to do to get a full unlock in PVE. Even if they get their skills unlocked, they object to the system itself. They will be unhappy when they create new charachters, and when they have get elite specializations.

these are two separate issues in reality. It seems similar because right now, both people dont want to have to get 65 skill points, but the reasoning is totally different.

the solutions are also totally different.

a person who is worried about progress being lost, would theoretically want a full accounting of thier current progress, and for the new system to properly award them that progress back.

Someone worried primarily about effort required doing something they dont like, is primarily looking for a solution with substantially less effort, or to be able to achieve it doing something they like.

I reject the concept that 3 hours doing skill challenges is too much effort to expect some one interested in pve to unlock full core on their charachters.

WvW is a totally different situation, but its a different question as well. Which boils down to, does arenanet think WvW should be an autonomous system, where you only should only have to play WvW to progress your charachter.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Additionally, the only “evidence” people have are “I havent seen good loot (read: something expensive) in a long time/at all” which is at BEST a passing curiosity to the devs.

There might be one exception. If too many people have the feeling that they are not rewarded enough for their efforts and decide to leave, it might be necessary to really adjust the drop chances.

Ah, but that’s a different problem. Just as a discussion whether pure RNG is a good system, or should it be adjusted with streak breakers, tokens or similar mechanics is a different topic. This one is about rng conspiracies that claim Anet doesn’t treat players equally.

its highly unlikely that if a problem exists with random its universal.
most accounts will likely fall within the average experience.

all tests will show expected results, with a standard deviation, the problem lies when that standard deviation hides an error, it is extremely hard to identify it.

If the problem hides within standard deviation so well it’s unnoticeable, then it has no significant impact. And thus is not a major problem.

incorrect.
standard deviation doesnt signify an acceptable flaw, it signifies the point at which your data is unreliable.

its also not really about statistics. Statistics only look at the numbers/ratios. Statistics wont care if a system has a bias, as long as the numbers match up.

Untrue, statistics can help you notice that bias. And again, if the bias is unnoticeable, then it’s not significant.

Statistics is merely the aggregation of data. And then taking various slices of that data and comparing it to something.

So statistics will always be limited by two factors
how much/what data you record
Which parts of the data you look at

Statistics also has no context on its own.

For example, statistics may be able to tell you what percent of males age 17-25 have been imprisoned, but it cannot tell you if they were guilty or innocent.

the case people are making is that the system has some accounts that are luckier than others. Statistics will in fact back this up, completely, without question. It actually fits into the expected patterns.

The question is WHY are certain accounts luckier, statistics makes no differentiation between whether the luck is artificial, or truely random. One can look for patterns, but pattern recognition is something humans excel at, so far other tools/mechanics/software are far inferior. So its up to people to find the patterns, and test the system, and come up with ways to gather their data, and slice it, so as to get at the truth.

Satistics cant track whys, hence it cannot track bias.
and when the bias falls within expected distribution, statistics wont tell you jack about it.
and btw, it expected, that with a normal distribution, 32% of accounts will experience drop rates that are unusual. of those 32% half will experience negatively unusual drop rates.

so is 16% of accounts possibly being cursed, not by a true random chance, but by a predetermined program acceptable?
statistically? there is no difference

but i dont think it would be a negligable amount.

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I’m guessing that now is the time to unlock all your core skills and traits by whatever means necessary (gold, skill scrolls, etc…) then. Because I’m fairly certain those unlocked skills/traits on a max 80 character will be grandfathered in when the changes hit. For Anet to not do so would bring an avalanche of bad publicity and player backlash that to be honest simply wouldn’t be worth it from a business stand point.

If they do grandfather stuff in, this conversation/thread is moot.

But here’s the thing – the reason this thread is here is that they indicated (vaguely, but still) that they would not be grandfathering stuff in, but rather resetting you to the number of Hero Points you “should” have (i.e. for an 80 that’s 400 + number of Skill Challenges done, and you need 465 just to get back to where 99% of 80s already are).

So right now it does seem more likely that they’re going with the backlash/bad publicity route.

Does it make sense from a business standpoint? No, I agree that it does not, but sadly, much bigger companies than Anet have made much worse business standpoint-type decisions when implementing new systems. All it takes is an internal culture where they make important decisions without thinking them through critically and skeptically (a good example is WoW’s RealID, which caused massive backlash and was eventually completely revised).

Acquiring 65 skill points is not a big issue at all. You are just required to travel only 8-10 maps to get those number of skill points. Pretty easy, right? But the Specialization may require you to do a bit more exploration. The latter one makes sense as it is a HoT implementation.

It absolutely is a “big issue”. Only required to travel to 8-10 maps? Yeah, you are, but you’re then required to spend about 5 minutes per skill point travelling around the maps (esp. as you likely do not have all the Waypoints, nor know the routes to the challenges – many of which involve a fair bit of jumping, climbing or spelunking to reach). So 65 × 5 = 325 minutes = nearly 5 and a half hours!

And that could be per-character!

Realistically most 80s have some Skill Challenges, but looking at mine and those of friends, many have in the order of 10-30 done, so that’s still multiple hours per character, just to get back to where you were (you gain nothing – no loot, no XP, nothing else from doing Skill Challenges).

“Pretty easy” – Well, it’s not hard in the sense of “requiring skill”, sure, but it is tedious and time-consuming. By that logic, re-decorating an entire house top to bottom is “pretty easy” – most adults have all the skills they need to do it. But we don’t all have the time required to do it, and you’re aggressively ignoring that part of the equation.

I understand people complaining because they are changing the rules, and taking away their progress under the old rules
I understand people complaining that if they mostly play WvW its troublesome to go pve.

However, I cant really get with people implying 3 hours of effort on their pve charachters, is too much effort. If you dont want to spend 3 hours in PVE with your charachter, its likely you dont want to pve with that charachter.

also, as i have said before, the average is 3 minutes per skill point. yeah, some take longer, but you dont need every skillpoint challenge, and some also take substantially less time.

so basically, just go for the easy ones.

like your interior decorating analogy, if you really want a pretty house, you are going to have to put forth some effort into making it pretty, thats not really a crazy concept

(edited by phys.7689)

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

looks like Anet just need to make a total of 65 heroes challenge location in WvW to satisfy those who live in WvW only

There’s 13 skill challenges in WvW, and 13 * 5 is 65. The theory is that the WvW one will be good for 5 hero points each while the PvE ones will only give 1 each.

Totally made up, but the numbers fit nicely, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what was about to happen.

That would soften the blow somewhat for WvW players, although it really won’t help nearly enough if you need 100 more on top of the 65 per elite specialization.

yes, this would be a bad long term design, for many reasons, one of which you mention.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

its highly unlikely that if a problem exists with random its universal.
most accounts will likely fall within the average experience.

all tests will show expected results, with a standard deviation, the problem lies when that standard deviation hides an error, it is extremely hard to identify it.

If the problem hides within standard deviation so well it’s unnoticeable, then it has no significant impact. And thus is not a major problem.

incorrect.
standard deviation doesnt signify an acceptable flaw, it signifies the point at which your data is unreliable.

its also not really about statistics. Statistics only look at the numbers/ratios. Statistics wont care if a system has a bias, as long as the numbers match up.

IE it will be extremely hard to tell if a system that is simulating a random system is unfairly targeting certain people, because the data will match up. Some people will seem unlucky, an some people will seem lucky.

lets say they run the data, and the find out some one earns 10 times as much good loot, datawise, nothing is wrong, as long as there is an acceptable amount of these people, and they are somewhat evenly balanced with people who earn 10 times less, its all good.

statistically, there is no difference between a system that predeterminedly decides your fate, and one that is truely random, as long as they both distribute the data the same.

However, while statistically they are the same, it is very bad as an engine for a game, because the point of random in a game, is generally for unpredictability, but often it as used as an impartial means of determining things.
Its very bad if its partial, because then it is not unpredictable on an individual level, and not impartial.

regardless at the end of the day, the truth is the type of random they are trying to simulate is bad for these type of games, for which random is supposed to represent a semi fair system.

(edited by phys.7689)

Is HoT Destroying Build Diversity?

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I just make this one. It feels very… incoherent. It has things I never think to use, lots of choices I would have rather avoided, “themes” I have no interest in…

No doubt it could work, but I really think FT+Static Discharge+Kit Refinement is sort of a Frankenstein monster. It looks fun, just not “streamlined” at all.

http://dulfy.net/2015/05/02/gw2-specialization-calculator-that_shaman/#profession=engineer&traits=%22Tools%22,1,4,8-%22Firearms%22,3,4,9-%22Alchemy%22,3,4,7

yeah, i doesnt seem to come together well, also i see you opted for the to be determined skill there, lol

P/P thief hard nerf?

in Thief

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Is P/P really a thing?

Dual Pistol is attractive in and of itself. There’s a segment in any MMO atttracted to it if for no other reason than the non Guild Wars 2 Media it reminds players of. Hell, I love seeing a bunch of enemies somewhere and feeling like I’m about to go all John Woo on them… even if the reality might in fact be something else entirely.

Personally I wish they’d given Dual Pistols to any other class because I feel like the majority of the balancing issues come down to the fact that theives get stealth… and these guys have hit a wall balancing single target ranged damage against a class that can vanish.

They seem to have been happy with P/P for quite some time now, so I wouldn’t anticipate the class being improved in HoT as sad as that may be. In my opinion P/P is just a niche build they’ll allow people to play while they focus balancing around burst/stealth melee builds. If they wanted it to be more it would have come up at least once in a developer comment by now as an issue they’d like to address.

nah,it has little to do with stealth.

they just have problems balancing the weapon set due to dual weapons.

basically the AA and the 5 skill dont do much for the set.

the AA is a slow bleed, while unload is powerbased
smoke field around yourself is ok, but with pistol you are usually at mid range, and the combo field of smoke is blind, but you already did a blind field, and only 20% will blind.

soo lets say a trait would fix it.
unload does more dmg to bleeding foes.
unload causes pushback (recast 1 second) to blinded foes.

Step It Up Arenanet

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

You guys can cling to your hipster dream world all you want, but the organization and order of a Trinity-like system would benefit the game more than take away from it.

Anet realizes this. Why else would they have put Taunt into the xpac as a condition?

taunt is a control effect, they already have things like push pull and fear

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

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Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Has there not been several times where the player base has raised issues, Arenanet have sworn blind that there is no issue, that players are mistaken. Only upon more pressure, investigated and found out that players were actually right?

Yes. In all those cases the playerbase either supplied some data, or was mostly united in asserting that the problem does exist.
There were also multiple cases where a group of players raised concerns, claiming that the problem was highly visible to the point of obvious (even when other players pointed out that there’s nowhere close to enough data to confirm that) and Anet’s check confirmed that the concerns were groundless.
Just look at all the “nerfed ecto droprate” threads after every big patch.

Basically, if there is a problem that affects the game in a visible way, then it is possible to show it using data. If you can’t, then the problem either doesn’t exist at all, or has only a minimal impact.

It doesn’t seem unreasonable to feel that “RNG is borked” when there are people looting a beta portal within 15 minutes and people who’ve farmed for 30+ hours and never seen one drop. ’Nuff said.

If something is dropping randomly but rarely, why can’t it do as you describe? Isn’t that how random things drop?

It doesn’t seem very random when certain accounts are getting multiple portals. that seems more fixed.

no, if there weren’t accounts with multiple portals, it would seem fixed.
Just assume 10k population, 100 tries, set chance (1% will do just fine to illustrate what i am talking about) and try to calculate how many people on average should get 0, 1, 2, 3, etc portals. The results will be illuminating, trust me.

those were cases where the problem was universal.

its highly unlikely that if a problem exists with random its universal.
most accounts will likely fall within the average experience.

all tests will show expected results, with a standard deviation, the problem lies when that standard deviation hides an error, it is extremely hard to identify it.

Step It Up Arenanet

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I do agree with most, Anet should really expand their workforce, this stagnant months of no content is proof that they are unable to retain old players. Also they could work with better communication, since they usually ask for feedback but rarely act on it.

Easier said than done. Workforce costs money. You can’t expect the same amount of content for free than you would find in a subscription-based MMO. Many people play GW2 because it’s BtP. HoT will probably fill Anet’s bank account, so we will have a lot of new content released for a while (just like in winter 2012), until the next expansion. Some games are just not designed for hardcore players.

yes you can.
Arenanet makes as much money as many subscription based games.

you are forgeting that f2p is actually one of the more profitable business models nowadays.

it’s B2P not F2P, a F2P is mostly made to make ppl spend money on power, B2P is made so you get a P2P quality game but have F2P benefits. (like no sub fee, in-game store with cosmetic gimmicks, etc…)

no, f2p is not mostly made to spend money on power. f2p is most often spending money on cosmetics/convenience/speed.

gw2 isnt really b2p, its basically a b2p/f2p hybrid.
Its a decent value, dont get me wrong, but it essentially works with the same structure as most f2p games i have played, except you have a better starter package.
check
champions online
star trek
swtor
dcuo
gunbound

gw1 was b2p
gtaV is b2p

(edited by phys.7689)

Is HoT Destroying Build Diversity?

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

To the OP´s question, a loud YES!

Another example from a “stupid fun” builder.
My current Rifle/Hammer Warrior will be dead as I am using 2 points off the path for Warrior´s Sprint and the rest for the actual build.

As WS will share a tier with Rifle, I will have to ditch my Rifle and go Long Bow like everybody else. Welcome to the new build diversity.

My suspicion is that the Devs are still suffering from Guild Wars 1 balancing PTSD, or rather the massive failure at it. The current system is still too flexible and diverse to them so they have to cut it down (aka. “slimline” ) even more.

Not the least because more Elites are probably in the pipeline and they have to be balanced too.

its not really about balance, its about simplifying the system so its easier for people to stumble on ok builds.

balance is not necesarrily easier by having less options,

Hero Points & old characters: breach of trust

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Before the first trait system overhaul you would get all the traits for free, so all my original characters have all of them.

Then I made a second generation of characters, which did not have all the traits, so I had to spend a lot of AP and Golds to get the traits unclocked.

Now all that money is gone to waste (43g per toon) and I won’t get all my traits back, because I didn’t do the map completion.

Not only this, but even my first generation of characters won’t get all the traits back as it stands now.

Kinda feels unfair?

What should be done is to give to characters created before the change all 465 Hero Points by default, and all newly created characters will have to follow the new rules, which is exactly what they did the first time they did an overhaul of the trait system.

Easy decision in my opinion and will also save us a lot of complaining.

first generation charachters spent more skill points on simply unlocking every skill, than new charachters will spend unlocking all core traits, and skills. Doing skill challenges was substantially faster than the only other method which was leveling, and also could not be shared between charachters.

how did you buy 360 skill points worth of skills per charachter and do no skill challenges?
even by eotm/spvp/champ bags that would take substantially longer than just doing skill challenges.

now, charachters created with the first system, who used skill point scrolls from the second system, they might have gotten full unlocks easy, but thats not in either system you describe.

also, many charachters created before the change have not unlocked every skill and trait, why should they benefit?

Step It Up Arenanet

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I do agree with most, Anet should really expand their workforce, this stagnant months of no content is proof that they are unable to retain old players. Also they could work with better communication, since they usually ask for feedback but rarely act on it.

Easier said than done. Workforce costs money. You can’t expect the same amount of content for free than you would find in a subscription-based MMO. Many people play GW2 because it’s BtP. HoT will probably fill Anet’s bank account, so we will have a lot of new content released for a while (just like in winter 2012), until the next expansion. Some games are just not designed for hardcore players.

yes you can.
Arenanet makes as much money as many subscription based games.

you are forgeting that f2p is actually one of the more profitable business models nowadays.

Step It Up Arenanet

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I’ve come to the conclusion that this game, despite its innovation, pretty aesthetics, and unique combat system rates about 6 out of 10 for an MMO.

I’m going to name some of the biggest flaws that I’ve seen and chunk deuce because, like my signature says, I am already committed to another MMO, FFXIV, which is significantly better and has an expansion on the way.

  • Bugs, bugs, and more bugs. I mainly played PvP while I was in the game, but I think this applies to everyone. Arenanet please look at your bug report section of the forums, there’s cobwebs growing there and it would behoove you to at least pretend you’re paying attention to them.
  • Toxic community. The PvE players seem to be much more positive than the PvP community, which is all well and good, but overall the vitriol coming from WvW and PvP players, which are the game modes I would have committed to if this game was worth committing to, pushed me away. Big time.
  • Obvious short-handed staff is obvious. I don’t know if it’s because you guys pay a lot of overhead, NCSoft’s shareholders are too demanding, or your management doesn’t have the stones to spend more money in problem areas, but the rate of work and releasing content is abysmal. FFXIV ARR came out in 2013 and within the period of time it’s been out the sheer amount of content they’ve created is staggering. I don’t know what the excuse is for GW2, but it doesn’t really matter. You guys aren’t giving your players enough to do, that’s why they’re complaining on your forums so much.
  • I know you’re in “testing phase” for your PvP leaderboards, but getting to the top of them just requires playing the game more. When you average out how many games per day the “top” players play, it makes you wonder if they have taken a shower in the last 2 months. There have been sub .500 winning percentage “elites” in the top 25. One time I counted four of them, but that was a while ago. That’s just embarrassing.
  • The fact that you have not committed to a release date for HoT and still hype it up while it’s in early beta shows that you guys do not have the confidence to set a date, do not have enough staff to have that confidence, and will probably release the expansion “unfinished,” which might be a subjective word to you, but, again, FFXIV Heavensward will be a “finished” product. They’ve already gone into detail about what you’ll be getting, a lot more than your cute little “we’re nowhere done yet, even though it’s been 3 years to work on an expansion, but here’s where we think we are and where we think we’re going.”
  • Your PvP balance is trying to make anarchy cool. It’s not working. There needs to be order and organization in how players build and how groups form, which is why Trinity MMOs will always outperform GW2 in PvE and PvP. Is it a stale, “boring” system? Maybe. But it works. Ultimately, as in life, that’s all that matters. If it works. Ultimately, one day, one or some of you will realize that you need to have archetypes or roles that all players are made aware of, and a system in-game that directs them to build in a way that the group needs. In a Trinity game, you have to have a Tank, 2 DPS, and a Healer. GW2 needs something similar to that if it’s ever going to have good competition in all competitive levels of PvP.
  • All your business model promotes is new players, new players, and more new players. You very obviously are not focusing on retaining your most committed players, because there is nowhere near as much incentive to. That’s one of the many failures of a non-subscription MMO and proof that it’s just a fad that is of benefit to younger, weaker studios who need the obnoxious dress up customers instead of the ones willing to pay you 180 dollars a year plus 50-60 for an xpac guaranteed. You actually have to work for those customers, but if you get them they’ll promote your game everywhere and say almost entirely positive things about the game.

Hope you guys read this and at least consider looking into some new approaches, like having an optional subscription, building a role system for PvP, templates, or any number of the suggestions pouring into your forum every other day.

Deuces

sorry man, there are a number of cooperative games that work just fine without trinity. A lack of trinity doesnt mean anarchy.

Now i m not saying they have designed compelling team content that often, but it has nothing to do with trinity.
i played FFXIV, trinity has nothing to do with why the good boss encounters are interesting.
You generally have very little concept of what any of the other 3 roles struggles are, so their existence doesnt make the fight any more entertaining.

some of your other points are valid though

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Again this is also poor reasoning because it takes hypotheticals to form theory so as to establish a solid basis, which is what these threads are about and what you seem against.

We generally don’t create new, more complicated theories to explain something that fits neatly within already existing, simpler one. It’s only when things start to happen that do not fit that new theories are needed.

Theories are not equivalent to each other simply because they exist. Especially when they are created in vacuum, with no data suppliet that would show how they interact with reality. RNG conspiracy theories are not based on data, but merely on anecdotal “evidence”.

And, to quote mysef again, some are not even hypothetical, they are just plain dumb and are based on pure wish-thinking and lack of understanding.

anectdotal evidence is not necessarily incorrect evidence.

infact, its correctness or not has nothing to do with whether it is anecdotal or not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence

When i took engineering classes, my teacher told me it was bull to do an experiment, get results that dont match the theory, and not try to explain them.
Things like, i think the instruments were bad, or this is freak occurence are not acceptable scientific explanations.

now this doesnt mean you take anectdotal evidence as law, but it also means that dismissing it because it is anecdotal alone, is actually non-science.

the person citing anectodal evidence actually has more claim to being scientific/correct than the person with no evidence.

RNG Conspiracy Conundrum

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

The fact is that from a business standpoint, Anet has a lot to gain by gaming the system, and doing so is not illegal.

Problem is, i have yet to see a “rng conspiracy” thread where the suggested way in which drops were supposed to be manipulated would be sensible to Anet. There’s always the “???” step before “Profit!” one, with no explanation whatsoever why Anet would profit.
Also, while the lack of understanding of the nature of both programming and rng is indeed present on both sides of debate, it is glaringly evident on the side of conspiracy theorists.

TL/DR: No, RNG conspiracy theory side cannot prove their ideas not because they can’t present enough data to make it obvious, but because 90% of those theories have only passable connection to reality (and i am being generous here).

sometimes there is no difference is data wise from one situation to the next.

Heres what will happen with real random
at the end of the day you will have some people who were luckier than others, and win more often, this is an expected conclusion.
heres what will happen with fake random
at the end of the day you will have some people who were luckier than others, and win more often, this is an expected conclusion.

the main difference? real random events, are really random, so people are more likely to accept that no sinister force is working against them.

fake random is not really random, so people dont want accept no sinister force is working against them. Because really it isnt random, its now fate. Its a set pattern that essentially has bias against them, whether it be because of the voltages passing through something, some function of key presses, the time and date or alignment of the stars, the native rythym with which you kill. It is actually a known, predictable quantity, and it is by design, not a fair pattern that it will generate.

and the last peice of the puzzle?
in real life random chance is just about the worst way to achieve anything the majority of the time. In this game, random is built in to everything. Even if there are in real random, people fated to be unlucky, they can just avoid random events. Not really possible to do that here.

why does gw2 feel like a grindy f2p?

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

The fundamental problem with MMOs is that the players burn through content quicker than it can be made and released. I find dynamic events still fun after all these years. And I tend to hang around only on three low level maps. And I’m putting in maybe 10 to 20 hours a week if that. Call me odd but I like doing DEs while strip mining maps of their mats unless I’m rushed for time.

I’m not tired of Maw for instance. It’s comfortable and it’s fun seeing all those players in one place. It’s as fun as riding on a same local rollercoaster for the 20th time. It’s old hat but I still enjoy it, well the screams of my fellow passengers.

Hmm, maybe I should roll an Asura next then.

the maw is a really really crappy roller coaster, more like an everyone come here to get tickets redeemable for a prize.

And thats the problem, most of the content has very little innate joy or challenge built in.
even in the theme park, when you have mastered the shooting game, or the skeeball, there is still a feeling of mastery/skill/focus when you do it right. Too many of the rewarding things in GW feel like attendence rewards, or rewarding you for walking 2 miles across the themepark.

So yeah, you will never design a themepark with enough rides, if it is a design that is mostly about seeing something. people will always see everything eventually. It has to also be about compelling experiences, and that is where anet hasnt delivered well enough. Incentivizing/creating compelling experiences.

Traits Part 2

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

As I said in an earlier post. But let me simplify it hear.

You have 100 players.

There is a 1 in 100 chance of X dropping as loot.

Everyone gets 229 loot drops from the same source.

The distribution of X is:

10 get 0
23 get 1
27 get 2
20 get 3
12 get 4
5 get 5
2 get 6
1 get 7

To the 10 that got 0 and seeing some players got 5-7, it’s only natural to think the fix is in or something is broken but that’s the mathematical distribution. We have 10 unlucky players and 7 lucky ones. Nothing is broken here. The fix isn’t in. It’s just math and the nature of probability.

huh? is this a bad merge?

Dungeon Balance Post-Specializations

in Fractals, Dungeons & Raids

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

I agree, Nike. Berserker’s Power will always win out over Axe Mastery and that will push Axe out of the meta pretty much entirely. This is generally how I feel about the Warrior changes and what they mean for dungeons and fractals.

  • Axe Mastery
    • Axe Mastery as a GM trait will compete with Berserker’s Power and push Axe builds out of PvE in favor of Greatsword-only builds. Axe Mastery needs to be an Adept trait in the place of something like Restorative Strength in order to keep Axe in the PvE meta.
  • Powerful Synergy
    • This trait is horrible in its current form. Leap finishers are not that desirable, and don’t provide enough effect to merit sacrificing Phalanx Strength / Vigorous Shouts if you’re going into this line. If you want this trait to be relevant, have it affect all finishers, including blast finishers.
    • Powerful Synergy: All finishers you use activate combo fields twice.
  • Furious & Deep Strike
    • These traits should add Power and Condition Damage instead of just Condition Damage. In their current forms they’re really not very useful trait, and should be useful with a more variable set of skill types for the Warrior.
  • Heightened Focus
    • This is an interesting trait, but isn’t particularly great. It would be more generally useful and have far more play/counterplay as follows.
    • Heightened Focus: Gain Quickness for a few seconds when you hit with a burst skill. 3 seconds with L1 burst, 4.5 seconds with L2 burst, 6 seconds with L3 burst.
  • Burst Mastery
    • This trait really isn’t that powerful, and unfortunately doesn’t benefit the less damaging burst skills very much. Doing the following will enable it to benefit a wider variety of mainhand weapons better.
    • Burst Mastery: Burst skills have increased effects (Eviscerate / Kill Shot / Earthshaker / Arcing Slice get +7% damage, Flurry gets +50% bleed duration, Skull Crack gets +1 second stun) and restore adrenaline on use.

I welcome feedback on my ideas here.

heightened focus, sorry 6 seconds of quickness on a possible 8 second cool down is a bit over the top.

Specialization Build simulator

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

seperate post for my personal opinon

build choice feels very limited,
i find myself picking a lot of things because i have no choice

stripped of the stats, some lines feel like they need more oomph, very often the old power lines dont feel that well done.

many hybrid styles feel like they are now in direct opposition.
interupt and shatter builds are now against each other, for example.

mantra versus deceptive evasion.

feels like traits is less about customizing your style of play, and more about picking one of a few styles of play.

(edited by phys.7689)

Specialization Build simulator

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

New specialization calculator

in Mesmer

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

wow, when you see it right here all laid out

really feels like you dont have much options. Taking a lot of things just because you dont really have much choice.

Also, they should change the UI in the real game to show the Specs that arent active as well. harder to get a real quick feel for your options when you cant see them all at once.

Is HoT Destroying Build Diversity?

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

In terms of build diversity, I don’t care for having some insane number of available build options but only using maybe a handful of genuinely useful builds. I would rather have a smaller number of manageable and more useful builds. If HoT were to reduce the amount of possible builds down by a factor of 10 or so, then I would expect the each of the remaining build possibilities to be incredibly useful. In short, I want quality, not quantity.

not clear here, are you saying you would rather have 10 good builds out of 20 than 20 good builds out of 100?

I’m pretty sure, he means he’d rather have 10 good builds out of 20 than 5 out of 100.

well he said he would rather have a smaller number of manageable builds, which suggests he is concerned with having to find the actual good ones. but i could see him meaning what you say, which is why i asked him.

Its a different and valid opinion than we have heard for someone to say they dont want a ton of builds to have to figure out, though i personally disagree.

regardless there is nothing about the mechanics of specialization that would increase build diversity, other than the separation of stats/traits.
but one does not require the other.

Is HoT Destroying Build Diversity?

in Guild Wars 2: Heart of Thorns

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

In terms of build diversity, I don’t care for having some insane number of available build options but only using maybe a handful of genuinely useful builds. I would rather have a smaller number of manageable and more useful builds. If HoT were to reduce the amount of possible builds down by a factor of 10 or so, then I would expect the each of the remaining build possibilities to be incredibly useful. In short, I want quality, not quantity.

not clear here, are you saying you would rather have 10 good builds out of 20 than 20 good builds out of 100?

NPCs calling Divinity's Reach "DR"...

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: phys.7689

phys.7689

Probably because it’s the same amount of syllables to say NY or New York, however city has an extra syllable. You hear things like NYPD all the time though.

Like I said, there’s no set-in-stone rule. It either sounds right or it doesn’t, but we don’t get the opportunity to actually hear it said very often. What about the people who use voice chat? What do you guys say?

DR is fine sounding, but it makes me think of Dominican Republic, likewise LA makes me think of los angeles, but i assume tyrians wouldnt have this problem